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wxsniss

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Everything posted by wxsniss

  1. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/science/solar-eclipse-cloud-cover-forecast-map.html
  2. Hits the spot. Winter and all its meteorological chases and thrills have been a reliable escape for folks here for as long as we can remember (for me, since moving here in 1993, so my expectations were warped from the start). The past 2 years? The only redeeming experience was a few hours after the CF passed through on Jan 7... first time my toddler witnessed heavy snow and he was absolutely ecstatic. Here's how it would look if we do in fact sweep the rest of the season and don't hit 4" before mid Dec 2024... depressing:
  3. Pseudo-science. If the mayor is going to speak broadly for meteorologists, would be nice if she said something like: "This was a more difficult forecast than usual, and meteorology can be an extremely challenging science. While forecasting has improved significantly, it still has imperfections. Also we are putting the horse down."
  4. Interesting... she's a politician and not a scientist, but I'm sure the thought crossed people's minds here too... as with lots of things here, too microscopic a sample size to say anything conclusively (and not intending to start a whole CC debate here, just relaying a reaction while the puddles are still drying): “I think it goes to show not only is our climate changing in general that we haven’t had a significant snowstorm now in more than two years, but also the predictability of the weather — every storm can change so quickly on its path, the projections, the amounts,” Wu said. https://www.boston.com/news/weather/2024/02/13/what-mayor-wu-had-to-say-about-bostons-snow-forecast-bust/?p1=hp_featurestack
  5. Congrats to those in southeast MA right now! Feels like most areas of southern/eastern SNE have had some seasonal redemption with this storm. Boston metro a notable exception. Not even a consolation inch for this "snow emergency". The "what happened" headlines beginning, with several met thoughts here, many saying they would have made the same exact forecast given the data until Monday afternoon: https://www.boston.com/weather/weather/2024/02/13/meteorologists-react-drastic-shift-mass-snow-forecast/?p1=hp_primary
  6. Yeah even in this 15z-21z window of best omega (inside 495 belt), there was never complete saturation ~700 and above
  7. Changed over to mostly snow in Brookline, ok dendrites. 15z HRRR says we have maybe 2 hours to get a coat-1" lol Unreal winters continue. We had ~4 hours of magic on Jan 7. Maybe it's just me, but the disappointment stings even more when the lay public mocks the field/science (and hobby) of meteorology after such a forecasting debacle.
  8. Box from earlier this morning, still expected snow even to Logan: 8:30 AM Update: It is apparent that snow moved in faster than all models had predicted this morning with portions of interior Connecticut well overperforming compared to previous forecasts (several reports of 7"+ have were received prior to 8 AM out of Hartford County). With temperatures above freezing in the Boston Metro area, we have yet to see a change to snow in the city as well as along the immediate coastline. Temperatures should cool over the next couple of hours allowing precip to switch to snow even at the airport in Winthrop, but delays in the changeover will impact how much snow accumulates in the city. As for timing, a changeover should occur by 16Z for any ares still experiencing rain. Dendrites are quite large with this system which will contribute to some rapid accumulations. Some observers have reported inch per hour rates over the last hour or two
  9. Plain rain, 36/33 in Coolidge Corner Best soundings in Boston metro were 15z-21z, and best radar returns of event so far are overhead, but not even flakes mixing in. Temps look like CF wrapped around city between 128-495. 717 day record will hold. Can’t believe snow emergency and region-wide school cancellations were called so early on Monday Congrats to folks in CT
  10. Great band setting up now across CT matches 700mb fronto, can see it on 6z NAM Will tick slowly northeast by 12z
  11. Yeah you might be right I'm not sure... the most intense echoes do look narrow and stationary, but surrounding echoes less so and are moving northeast. In any case, this feels like microdissecting radar hallucinations, but whether or not echoes hit a wall at ~Susquehanna county in northeast PA (HRRRs) or actually reach the northern PA-NY border (GFS) in the next 5 hours will be telling.
  12. @NotSureWeatherpointed this out: Convection (circled below) not really on any models for Tues 6z... up against the northwest wall of dry air, and models have it dissipate as low transfers off Delmarva, but hopefully this translates at least to CT folks
  13. Tomorrow will be 717 days and counting for KBOS ≥ 4"... if we don't end the streak before December 2024, we will be at 1000 days... completely off the charts for records since 1891.
  14. Funny Maybe this was meant to provoke for fun, but worth saying anyway: ORH_wxman is by far one of the most knowledgeable, accurate, level-headed, and valuable posters on this forum. Perhaps you can teach people here something: what distinguishes a phasing energy from a kicker, and why in this case did the northern stream energy transition from the former to the latter on guidance?
  15. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-OH_RV-comp_radar-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined
  16. Definitely not the debacle that UK/Euro were earlier for inside 495 and southeast... H7 low in a decent spot. As Tip said, from the lay public's perspective, at least would look like a snow storm for a while justifying all the closings. Though I'm not at all confident this is the final outcome. 18z GFS H7:
  17. Nauseating And had some high stakes decisions about tomorrow based on American guidance as well (12k/3kNAM, GFS, HREF) and considering that 12z NAM/GFS even ticked better than 6z runs Happens to be American vs. foreign models (Euro, UK, Canadians) I had pointed out last night about this chasing convection on the 0z Euro, but gives pause seeing it double down on that UA analysis will be informative later this afternoon to see if this shortwave energy trajectory is more east vs. northeast
  18. For a change, we've had a comfortable buffer with this one (pike region). Much more impactful shift for those on margins: Philly went from 1" at 12z to 11" at 0z. H5 looks about same, but the shift begins to appear at 30h (6z Tues) when the shortwave takes a more easterly than northeasterly trajectory. Confluence is a bit stronger but I'm not certain that's the biggest cause that early. In any case, south is the theme tonight, but as you say I wouldn't be shocked to see this tick north tomorrow.
  19. 18z GFS adds to strong consensus for intense CCB ≥1-2"/hr snows 15z-18z eSNE, should be a wild morning
  20. Crushing at 15z KBOS on 12z NAM and 18z 3kNAM (tossing 18z NAM... looks like may chased some convection?)
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