wxsniss

Almost looks like LES in reverse…

Haunts me that I wrote "Euro is threading the needle to a non-event" on Sunday... the way these streams were positioned and take-your-pick of vorticity boluses, this looked so promising over the weekend... now it's variations of a theme of fail Non-zero chance we get improvements with better sampling of northern energy, but yeah that S stream backing out makes this such a gut-wrenching miss... what a stretch for SNE

0z EPS not improved vs. 12z... initially looked better at H5 through 96hrs but ultimately surface low members largely OTS... there's a handful of 960s-970s members in there so seems phase does eventually happen but too late for impact A negative sweep at 0z is definitely concerning and bucks the model momentum today. Northern stream energy is the critical variable, so there's still room to trend back to a better phase with improved sampling, but that's gotta happen in the next ~24-36 hours (looks like energy enters BC coast ~12z Wednesday)

Definite step back Weaker northern stream energy + less proficient phase --> more progressive trough --> scraper and less intense surface low. But not sure I'd call this a cave to Euro... Euro multiple cycles has a low far OTS and barely latitude of Delaware... GFS / many GEFS members have had multiple runs deeper low vicinity of BM

Continued big improvement with 18z GEFS at H5 and surface members Model momentum today favors a huge impact, details tbd... I maintain what I said yesterday: Euro/EPS is the one threading the needle to a non-event. Won't be surprised if it abruptly jumps in one cycle to a big hit between tonight - Tuesday 12z.

I’m relatively bullish on this. Feels like there’s multiple ways to have some impact… longwave pattern is decent, stronger northern energy and/or the slightest stream interaction gets at least some impact to 95 corridor/SNE… Usual caveats, nothing is guaranteed at this point and details tbd… but the “thread the needle” outcome is OTS imo.

Today's cold snowless winter day ≈ Pats win #4... useless and unwanted by winter/Pats fans. Just looked GFS 18z/6z vs. 12z H5 so hugely different... especially northern stream energy dives down better on 18z/6z instead of getting lost over Manitoba. Unfortunately I don't think we'll be confident with that variable until closer, but I'm not so discouraged by the 12z suite. When the outcome is so sensitive to just the slightest stream interaction, I actually lean against OTS with zero impacts as depicted at 12z.

All somehow related ways to mark the holiday Merry Christmas and Happy Hanukah all! Here’s to some region-wide crushings of yore in January…

Cobblestoned lamp-lit Beacon hill is pretty iconic too Anyway, not necessarily agreeing with this list (methodology was by showing people photos), but here were top cities:

And while we have a fresh example, put me in the column of folks who are a little delighted (relieved?) to see that Euro-AI was completely useless this last event. Wonder how the Google GenCast that received all this media hype a few weeks ago did…

From today: https://www.boston.com/travel/travel/2024/12/20/boston-was-just-named-the-most-beautiful-winter-city-in-the-world/

Took a weenie drive... almost a foreign feeling, it looks like WINTER... finally! ~5-5.2" measurements near Coolidge Corner Amazing how a positive bust (and for a change one where we're not futilely waiting to wetbulb) can partly heal the famished, even if it was just a few inches.

Completely sympathize. I was fully expecting mostly white rain in the city with C-1" to finish, par for the past 3 years. Literally 5 mile of CF placement made all the difference for you guys further east. Still have a few hours and CF looks over/past you, hopefully you pick up a few:

Westwood jack?

I'm trying to figure out... was this truly a NAM coup, or was it right for the wrong reasons i.e., OES + slightly further east CF (the larger synoptic snowfall from CCB in fact remained well offshore) that achieved the higher amounts in Boston / southwestern burbs...

Best snowfall in Boston metro in years... years since we've had snow covered roads like this in the city:

Yep, and fwiw much of that bust so far is OES and placement of the CF Bodes well for later this afternoon when larger synoptic stuff develops 18z HRRR looks great for 4-6pm

Honestly was surprised to be on NW side of CF all morning here in Fenway, I thought it would set up closer to 128 and we'd be in white rain all day Boston metro has not had a positive bust for years, meager as this is it's a great feeling. We've been < 1 mi vis for hours. Guesstimating 1-2" so far and all OES. I think this is the CF now, between Quincy / Weymouth and Canton / Randolph, slinking SE... @CoastalWx and others you should hopefully turn soon

And last night I thought NAM should be introduced to DOGE… This OES already beating my expectations this morning. CF sitting just southeast of city, great snow growth in Brookline.

Destructive interference from that lead vorticity and we just miss a significant event... if this were a single isolated model run, I'd be tempted to attribute the disconnect between H5 and surface low position as runaway convection 48-60 hrs out, still not unrealistic for this to weigh the lead annoying energy slightly less as we get closer

93-94 was my first winter in Boston. Man were my expectations irreversibly distorted. The potential and actual results of this December remind me of a Jerod Mayo pre-season quote I heard on WEEI this morning: "1000% percent... we have a lot of cap space... ready to burn some cash"

Euro definite improvement vs. 12z... trough looked more promising than surface reflection, but continued trend of slightly more negative tilt and vort more consolidated Verbatim still just a very minor event for Cape / SEMA

All 0z guidance so far jumped in same direction... a good sign as responsible pieces of energy are just approaching BC

Good to be back. So desperate for snow like everyone here / depressed by what seems like a new climate normal, seemingly exactly coinciding with Brady leaving. At the very least for my toddler to experience snow, he was so excited Jan 7 2024. One major and somewhat earlier improvement on this 0z NAM is vort max is more consolidated at base of trough... e.g. h54-60 it was previously shmearing out into Tenn / Miss, now more consolidated. We get better trough structure and start to see a negative tilt. This is so close to something much better.

I actually posted the Nature paper link and portion of abstract about GenCast yesterday, lost in the Banter thread… curious about people’s thoughts.