wxsniss

also "Rollo Tomasi"... felt like one of my closest friends that I've never met in real life

Definitely not the debacle that UK/Euro were earlier for inside 495 and southeast... H7 low in a decent spot. As Tip said, from the lay public's perspective, at least would look like a snow storm for a while justifying all the closings. Though I'm not at all confident this is the final outcome. 18z GFS H7:

Nauseating And had some high stakes decisions about tomorrow based on American guidance as well (12k/3kNAM, GFS, HREF) and considering that 12z NAM/GFS even ticked better than 6z runs Happens to be American vs. foreign models (Euro, UK, Canadians) I had pointed out last night about this chasing convection on the 0z Euro, but gives pause seeing it double down on that UA analysis will be informative later this afternoon to see if this shortwave energy trajectory is more east vs. northeast

For a change, we've had a comfortable buffer with this one (pike region). Much more impactful shift for those on margins: Philly went from 1" at 12z to 11" at 0z. H5 looks about same, but the shift begins to appear at 30h (6z Tues) when the shortwave takes a more easterly than northeasterly trajectory. Confluence is a bit stronger but I'm not certain that's the biggest cause that early. In any case, south is the theme tonight, but as you say I wouldn't be shocked to see this tick north tomorrow.

18z GFS adds to strong consensus for intense CCB ≥1-2"/hr snows 15z-18z eSNE, should be a wild morning

Crushing at 15z KBOS on 12z NAM and 18z 3kNAM (tossing 18z NAM... looks like may chased some convection?)

0z Euro very close to 12z except maybe moves out a hair faster so not as gangbuster closing in eSNE Intense CCB 12z-18z Tues Amazing how stable Euro/GFS guidance has been relative to rest of season Very high confidence for 6-12" across most of SNE, spots 10-14", maybe even spots 14-18" with ratios and steep fronto Huge factors for eSNE are (1) how quickly temps cool, as currently shown start of in low-mid 30s for a few hours, and (2) any bit of capture prolonging this even 2-3 more hours will translate to additional ~3-6" at those rates

The "shoot the moon" side of me, given this winter, is rooting for <4" at Logan to ensure our ongoing record (715 days?) is insurmountable for generations

Actually a tick north + a bit warmer to start at Tues 12z + wetter... ie., Euro converging with GFS All reflective of slightly more NS interaction you can see even at 60 hrs... and honestly can't rule out even more Verbatim quick crushing for most of SNE into sNH, 6-12" with maybe 10-14" jacks ~ central-northeast CT to northeast MA... Boston metro 4-8"/6-10" depending on surface temps to start Euro / GFS vs. JV models at this point

For this season, we're not used to seeing such concordance and stability of guidance at 96 hours. Really only GGEM / UK are off but slowly coming around. And decent buffer for pike region up to NH.

Nice to see relative stability for once this winter... Euro is now 24 hours of runs showing 6-12+ for SNE Factors favoring positive busts include better fronto pressed against the cold, and maybe a bit more / earlier NS infusion especially for areas further north like MA/NH border into CNE (though that interaction could also keep the SS more disjointed as in yesterday GGEM runs) Factors favoring tempering expectations include exit speed of system and warm surface temps at least at first few hours in coastal areas

Ensembles a hair southeast as well, good place to sit for SNE at this point There's almost 3 apparent clusters... not surprisingly with the cluster near the BM having the deepest systems

Yeah this evening's trends of greater confluence continues Just a hint of what Will described of the GGEM... an "almost phase" interaction with NS, but fortunately does not shear it out like GGEM and still have a very potent system... 6-12" towards seasonal redemption across much of SNE SoP. Still a ways to go...

0z Euro starts redemption for SNE on 13-14th vs. 12z Euro run: southern stream came in faster and better interaction with northern stream Still feels like wildly varying solutions but overall improving signal The 17-21th timeframe looks promising

Select "Seasonal Ranking", Variable = "Snowfall", and Output check Graph

Yeah that does stand out. I'm no climate scientist, but my lay impression is this is way too small a sampling to make any conclusions on changing climate in SNE. At least based on seasonal snowfall totals alone. I've seen the increased volatility of past 30 years attributed to a changing climate, but 100 years is a blip in time. Here's a pretty tight correlation in that timeframe: Kraft ownership of Pats ---> seizure activity of seasonal snowfall totals in SNE

For any newcomers looking for great summaries of climate data including monthly / seasonal snowfall: http://climod2.nrcc.cornell.edu/ Quick eyeball: 1957-58 had one of the best turnaround of snowfalls for KBOS: 6.7" Nov-Jan, then 38" Feb-April. I'm curious what teleconnectors were at play in the switch if anyone knows. Also, not a formal statistical analysis, but the most prominent trend is just all the higher maxima beginning 1992-93 (incidentally, the year I arrived in Boston, skewing my expectations forever ): Seasonal snowfall for KBOS:

Almost exactly 2 years ago... Not sure whether the string of ratters for eastern SNE truly represents changing climate or about the AGW attribution, and I dug up the above as a reminder (to myself lol) that classic blockbuster KUs do still happen, and recently. I've sat out this upcoming storm... busy week + I refuse to dignify what will likely be 1-3" glop in MBY with piecemeal dynamics + garbage soundings + a warm BL. This system reminds me a bit of the 1/7/24 system waiting for a CCB to cool our BL, except that prior system had a more robust CCB and colder 925-850s. And when the CF moved through, we had 4 hours of magic. Not expecting that Monday. Still keeping hope Feb/Mar can salvage what has been a brutal season for Boston metro area.

Just starting to look at this in more depth, but to your point, interesting to see variance on 12z EPS in low depths hinting at the very different ceiling with a "subsume" setup: Jan 17 range is generally 980s-990s Jan 19-20 have a few members as low as 950s-960s

Wasn't able to post all day. Some thoughts: Definite disappointment overnight, and one of my worst forecasts for Boston metro (waivered 4-8 vs. 6-10, and though I had posted "not totally enthusiastic about these BL temps" after the Sat 0z NAM, I muted those concerns and rode the 36-48h Euro/NAM/GFS and went 6-10). Embarrassing when those who asked for my forecast woke up to rain and wet roads. We ended up ~4" in Coolidge Corner. I was confident ORH hills to NEMA would hit double digits. If you look at final totals map... NWS (and @40/70 Benchmark's map) were extremely good forecasts, but the Boston metro was a discontinuity as if a bite was taken out of the 6-8/8-12 contours. Nothing about the precarious shortwave interactions or storm track or anything really complex... the BL temps were simply too warm and failed to cool with good rates in the overnight hours (you'll recall the 18z NAM Friday night had us wetbulbing to 32-33 by 4am, and Box AFD even mentioned that as rationale for increasing amounts... we easily would have had >6" if that materialized). In any case, any frustrations were instantly forgotten once CF passed through ~12pm-5pm. Definite period of >1" / hr rates, huge flakes. Felt like our winter mojo was back. And my toddler excitedly announced to strangers in the grocery store that it was snowing, and got to build his Olaf, so all was good.

I just use Wundermap and drew my own line: https://www.wunderground.com/wundermap

I saw that as well, hope the trend continues. 6z NAM soundings warmed a tic from 0z at surface holds at 34-35 until ~20z Current location of CF at MA-NH border, though we have a ways before this collapses:

Nice (I'm jealous of all these amazing reports with barely a coating here) 6z NAM big hit for your area northeast MA / southern NH / eastern ME CCB with colder BLs has to salvage accumulations for Boston metro, otherwise we struggle to reach the 6"+ calls (NWS still has 6-8"/8-12", I was expecting 6-10") Below is just 12h 10:1 from 12z Sun-0z Mon: