wxsniss

Great band setting up now across CT matches 700mb fronto, can see it on 6z NAM Will tick slowly northeast by 12z

6z 12kNAM qpf below, shifted ~25 miles north Decent dynamics and colder 15z-18z Near Plymouth at 18z:

Sizable tick north on 6z NAM

Yeah you might be right I'm not sure... the most intense echoes do look narrow and stationary, but surrounding echoes less so and are moving northeast. In any case, this feels like microdissecting radar hallucinations, but whether or not echoes hit a wall at ~Susquehanna county in northeast PA (HRRRs) or actually reach the northern PA-NY border (GFS) in the next 5 hours will be telling.

@NotSureWeatherpointed this out: Convection (circled below) not really on any models for Tues 6z... up against the northwest wall of dry air, and models have it dissipate as low transfers off Delmarva, but hopefully this translates at least to CT folks

Tomorrow will be 717 days and counting for KBOS ≥ 4"... if we don't end the streak before December 2024, we will be at 1000 days... completely off the charts for records since 1891.

Funny Maybe this was meant to provoke for fun, but worth saying anyway: ORH_wxman is by far one of the most knowledgeable, accurate, level-headed, and valuable posters on this forum. Perhaps you can teach people here something: what distinguishes a phasing energy from a kicker, and why in this case did the northern stream energy transition from the former to the latter on guidance?

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-OH_RV-comp_radar-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

also "Rollo Tomasi"... felt like one of my closest friends that I've never met in real life

Definitely not the debacle that UK/Euro were earlier for inside 495 and southeast... H7 low in a decent spot. As Tip said, from the lay public's perspective, at least would look like a snow storm for a while justifying all the closings. Though I'm not at all confident this is the final outcome. 18z GFS H7:

Nauseating And had some high stakes decisions about tomorrow based on American guidance as well (12k/3kNAM, GFS, HREF) and considering that 12z NAM/GFS even ticked better than 6z runs Happens to be American vs. foreign models (Euro, UK, Canadians) I had pointed out last night about this chasing convection on the 0z Euro, but gives pause seeing it double down on that UA analysis will be informative later this afternoon to see if this shortwave energy trajectory is more east vs. northeast

For a change, we've had a comfortable buffer with this one (pike region). Much more impactful shift for those on margins: Philly went from 1" at 12z to 11" at 0z. H5 looks about same, but the shift begins to appear at 30h (6z Tues) when the shortwave takes a more easterly than northeasterly trajectory. Confluence is a bit stronger but I'm not certain that's the biggest cause that early. In any case, south is the theme tonight, but as you say I wouldn't be shocked to see this tick north tomorrow.

18z GFS adds to strong consensus for intense CCB ≥1-2"/hr snows 15z-18z eSNE, should be a wild morning

Crushing at 15z KBOS on 12z NAM and 18z 3kNAM (tossing 18z NAM... looks like may chased some convection?)

0z Euro very close to 12z except maybe moves out a hair faster so not as gangbuster closing in eSNE Intense CCB 12z-18z Tues Amazing how stable Euro/GFS guidance has been relative to rest of season Very high confidence for 6-12" across most of SNE, spots 10-14", maybe even spots 14-18" with ratios and steep fronto Huge factors for eSNE are (1) how quickly temps cool, as currently shown start of in low-mid 30s for a few hours, and (2) any bit of capture prolonging this even 2-3 more hours will translate to additional ~3-6" at those rates

The "shoot the moon" side of me, given this winter, is rooting for <4" at Logan to ensure our ongoing record (715 days?) is insurmountable for generations

Actually a tick north + a bit warmer to start at Tues 12z + wetter... ie., Euro converging with GFS All reflective of slightly more NS interaction you can see even at 60 hrs... and honestly can't rule out even more Verbatim quick crushing for most of SNE into sNH, 6-12" with maybe 10-14" jacks ~ central-northeast CT to northeast MA... Boston metro 4-8"/6-10" depending on surface temps to start Euro / GFS vs. JV models at this point

For this season, we're not used to seeing such concordance and stability of guidance at 96 hours. Really only GGEM / UK are off but slowly coming around. And decent buffer for pike region up to NH.

Nice to see relative stability for once this winter... Euro is now 24 hours of runs showing 6-12+ for SNE Factors favoring positive busts include better fronto pressed against the cold, and maybe a bit more / earlier NS infusion especially for areas further north like MA/NH border into CNE (though that interaction could also keep the SS more disjointed as in yesterday GGEM runs) Factors favoring tempering expectations include exit speed of system and warm surface temps at least at first few hours in coastal areas

Ensembles a hair southeast as well, good place to sit for SNE at this point There's almost 3 apparent clusters... not surprisingly with the cluster near the BM having the deepest systems

Yeah this evening's trends of greater confluence continues Just a hint of what Will described of the GGEM... an "almost phase" interaction with NS, but fortunately does not shear it out like GGEM and still have a very potent system... 6-12" towards seasonal redemption across much of SNE SoP. Still a ways to go...

0z Euro starts redemption for SNE on 13-14th vs. 12z Euro run: southern stream came in faster and better interaction with northern stream Still feels like wildly varying solutions but overall improving signal The 17-21th timeframe looks promising

Select "Seasonal Ranking", Variable = "Snowfall", and Output check Graph

Yeah that does stand out. I'm no climate scientist, but my lay impression is this is way too small a sampling to make any conclusions on changing climate in SNE. At least based on seasonal snowfall totals alone. I've seen the increased volatility of past 30 years attributed to a changing climate, but 100 years is a blip in time. Here's a pretty tight correlation in that timeframe: Kraft ownership of Pats ---> seizure activity of seasonal snowfall totals in SNE