wxsniss

Yeah pieces look perfectly positioned on that 84h NAM for injection of the trailing vort and capture for a big hit eSNE. That scenario is shown on most global guidance at this point. The main mitigating factor on current guidance is if it happens too late... 6z GFS is a good example where the trailing energy arrives too late and the system bombs out too far east

Fwiw nice hit clown range 0z NAM, much improved from 18z NAM

Energy is entering CA 18z-0z tonight, so this 18z GFS (and definite step towards Euro with more robust initial wave and capture by trailing wave) is a very promising trend to start the evening

925mb -4 to -5C much of pike region / eastern SNE throughout event

18z GFS definite step towards Euro That infusion of trailing shortwave gets us to double digits in eSNE

Some #s from 12z GFS... this is warmest point 90hr for KBOS... I don't think easterly fetch is strong or prolonged enough to spoil this... when we've struggled in the past we were kissing 0C 950 Station: KBOS Latitude: 42.37 Longitude: -71.02 Elevation: 47.82 Press Height Temp Dewpt Dir Spd SFC 1010.3 48 0.8 -0.3 72 14 M 1000.0 130 -0.1 -1.1 74 20 S 950.0 539 -2.8 -3.0 79 29 S 900.0 965 -5.6 -5.8 88 32 M 850.0 1411 -7.7 -8.1 108 25 S 800.0 1882 -8.2 -13.4 130 14 S 750.0 2383 -7.9 -8.5 182 17 M 700.0 2922 -7.1 -7.7 209 22

100%, might have been a mistake. But someone made it, so wonder how this compares to the NBM, because doesn't seem supported by Euro/EPS or GFS/GEFS. And agree with others that the marine influence (especially once you approach 128) is probably factored too heavily.

Growing confidence from EPS/Euro we see double digits somewhere in SNE, finally get this monkey off our back... Pike vs. NE MA vs. NH-MA border vs. SE MA jack tbd, but outside 128 belt Foxboro to Fitchburg looks great atm Opening bid from NWS... seems they are heavily factoring marine influence... the low-res Euro soundings are plenty cold 925 on up, so probably see that gradient closer to coast:

Ironically the actual pieces of shortwave energy looked a bit better at 0z, but more ridging on this run brought this further north... great run for NEMA

Sweet spot for SNE that we discussed on 0z Euro last night: lead shortwave stronger but slightly more delayed, while not strong enough to push baroclinic zone too far southeast + trailing shortwave a tick faster so more likely to invigorate a parting CCB... if all this holds, that last component could push parts of E/SE SNE to 5-10 or more Great to see 12z GFS trending towards this

6z GFS slightly improved over 0z GFS but nowhere like Euro/UK… benefits from late infusion of trailing shortwave energy

Interesting concordances of the moment at 0z: Euro ≈ 110% UK: jack southeast NY-CT-Pike-BOS vs. CMC ≈ 110% GFS: jack northern MD-southeast PA-NJ

Things I'm seeing that improved this Euro run: more shortwave energy overall + slower lead wave + faster trailing wave allowing more interaction Great to see to buck the GFS trends!

Holy cow... one of the better runs yet for SNE... 12z Sun (hour 108):

Good disco all. Agree with too many middling chefs being a key impediment and setting a 4-8" ceiling. And not much CCB has chance to develop early enough as we saw in the bigger runs earlier today. Quick glance at 12z vs 18z GFS, why the jump? Was wondering if it was different intensity vorticity depicted early in the run and/or a more destructive interaction? I'm still not sure, but you can see differences already at 72hr 12z vs. 66hr 18z on shortwave energy in western Texas. Let's see shortly if that is an early prognostic at 60hr 0z. In any case, doubt we have much certainty before Wednesday PM / Thursday AM.

Agree, I'd fly in a heartbeat. Eagle Pass is a great call, 4m 23.6s totality. I'm sure you've seen this: https://www.chooseeaglepass.com/eclipse But with a 1- and 4-year-old in tow, my wife and I thought a 4-5 hour drive from home might be easier and more flexible. The 2017 Gallatin TN event you found was incredible. While we found an isolated grass field inside the venue, hearing the shrieks and wave of amazement sweep through the crowds nearby added to the thrill.

Beyond profound is a great way to put it... can't think of anything else that is so out of the ordinary, so directly experienced, and so quickly reminds us how small we really are. For anyone here who hasn't seen one, don't extrapolate from partial eclipses... 99% and 100% are a completely different experience.

Happy holidays everyone! Thought I'd start a thread to consolidate any trip suggestions / associated weather discussions / obs related to the April 8, 2024 total solar eclipse. Months in advance may seem silly, but some viewing options might take advance planning. With 2 toddlers, I thought a drive somewhere NNE would be easier than a flight. I flew to Nashville, Tennessee to see the 2017 total eclipse. Easily one of the most breathtaking natural events I've ever experienced. Thanks to a tip by @weathafella, we drove to Gallatin where there was a huge free eclipse event of thousands from all over the world, live music, open unobstructed fields, and ~2 min 40 seconds of awe. The next total solar eclipse over contiguous US will be in 2044, so this may be a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for many. Totality will cross NNE ~3:20-3:30pm Monday April 8 depending on location. Anyone know of any events or planning to drive somewhere in NNE? Links / Info: NASA Map 2024 Total Eclipse Eclipse Simulator Map Location Partial Begins Totality Begins Maximum Totality Ends Partial Ends Dallas, Texas 12:23 p.m. CDT 1:40 p.m. CDT 1:42 p.m. CDT 1:44 p.m. CDT 3:02 p.m. CDT Idabel, Oklahoma 12:28 p.m. CDT 1:45 p.m. CDT 1:47 p.m. CDT 1:49 p.m. CDT 3:06 p.m. CDT Little Rock, Arkansas 12:33 p.m. CDT 1:51 p.m. CDT 1:52 p.m. CDT 1:54 p.m. CDT 3:11 p.m. CDT Poplar Bluff, Missouri 12:39 p.m. CDT 1:56 p.m. CDT 1:56 p.m. CDT 2:00 p.m. CDT 3:15 p.m. CDT Paducah, Kentucky 12:42 p.m. CDT 2:00 p.m. CDT 2:01 p.m. CDT 2:02 p.m. CDT 3:18 p.m. CDT Evansville, Indiana 12:45 p.m. CDT 2:02 p.m. CDT 2:04 p.m. CDT 2:05 p.m. CDT 3:20 p.m. CDT Cleveland, Ohio 1:59 p.m. EDT 3:13 p.m. EDT 3:15 p.m. EDT 3:17 p.m. EDT 4:29 p.m. EDT Erie, Pennsylvania 2:02 p.m. EDT 3:16 p.m. EDT 3:18 p.m. EDT 3:20 p.m. EDT 4:30 p.m. EDT Buffalo, New York 2:04 p.m. EDT 3:18 p.m. EDT 3:20 p.m. EDT 3:22 p.m. EDT 4:32 p.m. EDT Burlington, Vermont 2:14 p.m. EDT 3:26 p.m. EDT 3:27 p.m. EDT 3:29 p.m. EDT 4:37 p.m. EDT Lancaster, New Hampshire 2:16 p.m. EDT 3:27 p.m. EDT 3:29 p.m. EDT 3:30 p.m. EDT 4:38 p.m. EDT Caribou, Maine 2:22 p.m. EDT 3:32 p.m. EDT 3:33 p.m. EDT 3:34 p.m. EDT 4:40 p.m. EDT

Agree. But in fact this was several days across multiple models (alternately GFS and Euro, and their ensembles) variably showing a track inside of 100 miles from Cape. NHC did a good job with this. The mode of guidance tracks (which was on left edge of cone for several days) never changed their mean.

Yeah you were solid with this. I think I opened with a 10% chance of SNE landfall last weekend iirc, but the trends of the past 2 days made me nervous (of home damage, not of being wrong!) Surf will be spectacular regardless. Hoping for sake of Maine and NS that this could tick even further east.

Kudos to NHC for not flinching with the cone... there was a period yesterday when most ensembles and op runs and their trends were on the very left edge of their cone. Some mets (Dave Esptein most prominently) flinched. Still significant lead time remaining in the scheme of tropical forecasting, and we've seen day-of 50-100 mile wobbles happen with majors, but what was always the most likely "correction vector" east is now increasingly supported by guidance today. Hurricane models performed well. Euro / GFS debates? They swapped roles in the closest tracks at various times, so I'm not convinced one was truly better than the other. In the camp of "I awe at severe like everyone on this forum but I don't want actual damage to my house", I'm relieved.

0z EPS ticked west compared to 12z Mean is spot on with EC, a bit west of (and slower than) GFS Rare members making landfall into RI / southeast MA / outer Cape... would be bad scenario for Cape / Islands at least

Looks like first trough is faster to exit and upstream trough is deeper. Closest approach since Sat 12z run. Outer Cape would get clobbered. Makes landfall ~Portland-Brunswick ME then buzzsaws ME coast

Increasing support for the trough interaction tugging this northwest Actually very good consensus between 0z Euro and GFS... tracks 50-100 miles off outer Cape, landfall in Bay of Fundy Looks like maybe 1 member of 0z GEFS is OTS, the rest landfall mostly in Maine or Canada Actually expected more media hype about this by now 0z Euro: