wxsniss

230k+ power outages on Eversource Eastern MA most of Cape Cod 90-100% out Plymouth 72% out and rising

Always appreciate your posts, nice to have some hyperlocal validation and analysis Wonder how @weathafella's doing I'm hoping we're in decent position for the pivot and can also benefit from farther west fronto 3k NAM keeps us in decent rates noon through 7pm, hopefully at least another 6-8"

Wish it was just like 10 miles further west but we're still getting 1"/hr+ at minimum What are your totals? I have no idea precisely what we have, shoveled earlier guesstimating 10-12" around 9am

Meso Discussion from a few hours ago: Mesoscale Discussion 0117 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0413 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026 Areas affected...parts of the Northeast and southern New England Concerning...Blizzard Valid 231013Z - 231515Z SUMMARY...Very heavy snowfall rates of 2-3 inches per hour and widespread blizzard conditions should persist across Long Island and southern New England through 10 AM EST. DISCUSSION...Classic bomb cyclone/nor'easter off the Northeast coast will slow its deepening over the next few hours as it tracks northeastward off the southern New England coast through midday. As this occurs, multiple bands of very heavy snow from NJ to southeast MA should consolidate into one primary band across Long Island to eastern MA through mid-morning. Extremely enlarged low-level hodographs are indicative of the impressive warm conveyor north of the cyclone. In addition, very high KDP values detected within and somewhat below the dendritic growth zone amid base reflectivity values around 35 dBZ all point to highly prolific snowfall rates of 2-3 in/hr. From eastern Long Island through eastern MA, this appears likely to persist for several hours. Measured severe wind gusts should persist in this same region, supporting widespread blizzard conditions. The aforementioned slowing of cyclogenesis and northeastward track will eventually yield a more progressive tapering of very heavy snowfall rates from the southwest towards late morning. ..Grams.. 02/23/2026

Incredible blizzard conditions Located in Brookline just outside Boston Windows caked, can barely see a few hundred yards, must be at least 2/hr, occasional wind roar @weathafella hope you’re loving this and don’t lose power > 100,000 in Eastern Mass lost power and rapidly rising

Mesoscale Discussion 0116 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026 Areas affected...New York City Vicinity into southern New England Concerning...Blizzard Valid 230545Z - 231045Z SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snowfall will continue from the NYC Metro vicinity into southern New England. Snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour are likely with localized 2+ inches per hour possible. Greater rates will spread north with time. Blizzard conditions will also become more prevalent, particularly near the coast. DISCUSSION...Over the past 5 hours, the surface cyclone off the Mid-Atlantic coast has deepened approximately 9 mb per objective analysis. Bands of moderate to heavy snow continue to pivot into the NYC metro vicinity as well as southern New England. Moderate snow observations are beginning to occur into Massachusetts. As the upper trough continues to intensify and become more negatively tilted, the surface cyclone will deepen further into Monday morning. A long duration of at least moderate snowfall can be expected. Closer to 4-7 AM EST, a zone of very favorable ascent is expected to set up over southern New England. Snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour are likely along with the potential for localized 2+ inches per hour. Greater snowfall rates will also gradually shift northward as the system slowly lifts northeastward. Beyond significant snowfall rates, surface winds have already begun to increase from the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England. Current observations show winds gusting into the mid 30s to low 40s kts in Long Island. This trend should continue over the next several hours. Blizzard conditions will remain more likely near the coast, but inland areas will become increasingly impacted by strong winds and reduced visibility later this morning. ..Wendt.. 02/23/2026

Commiserating for you that an all-timer is uncertain, but I don't think it's all lost yet. Eg. 01z NBM hourly rates accurately depicts the intense rates in Delaware, but then pivots the best fronto to south coast by 5AM, and crushes eastern/southeastern MA 7a-1p Are you staying in Chestnut Hill? Really picked up here in Brookline in past 30 min, moderate and roads covered

01z NBM held steady... will be a stark test of what this is worth, if anything...

Gives hope we can at least salvage 12-20 BOS-PVD and southeast

Still light snow at best just outside Boston, barely a coating... ground truth has not matched radar so far Philly thread is a great read... the H7 / H85 fronto off of Delaware is amazing 4z HRRR cut back even more here

Aside from the fronto bands moving north, I think you can see influx of echoes blossoming off the ocean Finally some steady light snow and blustery in Brookline just west of city Just catching up, want to compare mesoanalysis with upstream obs... hoping that h7 / h85 fronto off DE/NJ translates up here as low deepens

Pretty exotic don't remember seeing so many mesolows gyrating around like that outside of TCs Haven't had a chance to post or look at upstream data... grocery stores are insane right now and progged winds are giving me serious worries about power loss. NAMs / HRRRs look excellent 19z NBM for any curious... (note straddles 48h period so I posted both below)... whatever cocktail of models it ingested, it's held steady:

https://sites.gsl.noaa.gov/desi/

01z Feb 22 NBM (takeaway being that it trended up ingesting the evolving mix of models):

Some freak soundings on that 0z 3k NAM... this is in southeast MA (though not the biggest DGZ):

Legendary move by a legendary OG poster for what looks to be a legendary storm. A few key synoptic variables in flux to determine place in history is timing of maturation... yesterday trended later / better for SNE vs. today trended a bit earlier / better for Philly/NYC/LI... could be in flux through Sunday. And obviously track... today maybe trended better tucking more NW on mesos. 19z NBM output... along with the winds, this is shaping up to be historic:

Monday morning KBOS on 3k NAM:

So much to archive, we're living another museum piece... Didn't see @Ginx snewx post this earlier, KBOS and KPVD Bufkit from 12z GFS: KBOS KPVD

1z Feb 21 NBM output 48 hours ending 1am Tuesday. Yeah we're going there. Box will likely have big headlines Saturday.

What an unmitigated, lights-out, absolute coup for the GFS / AI-GFS. I can't remember another case where the stakes were this big, the camps were initially so stubbornly dissimilar, the GFS was on its own... and the GFS schooled everyone. Assuming the big hit verifies, but I have zero doubt it will. 19z NBM (48h ending 7pm Monday):

Just back from Disney, lots of tracking waiting in lines all week GFS / AI GFS led the way and wow 6z ticked even further NW blizzard for southeast portions at least 970s tracking closer to BM Warning much of SNE foot+ ORH east

Great signals for last half of February on guidance across the board including ensembles and AI This winter has a sneaky epic vibe I'll be out of town with the kids for school vacation week next week... perfect timing not to miss the potential ahead

updated KBOS 1.9" for last night I believe that brings season total to 41.4" (normal to date 30.2") With the sustained deep cold and massive piles, what an unmitigated stretch of yore since the Jan SWFE, nothing close since 2015

KBOS event tonight 1.6” season 41.1” Feels good to be back