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Chicago WX

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About Chicago WX

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KIKK
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  • Location:
    IKK

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  1. Chicago WX

    Winter Storm? Jan 18-19th, 2019

    I hate to "bash", but at the Winter Storm Warning for IKK. Most of the guidance for here barely has enough snow for an advisory, let alone a warning. Guess the wind component may have been factored in, but it's not like we haven't seen 2" with 30 mph gusts before...not that crazy. Final call of 1-3" for MBY. Euro and Ukie has been rock solid with the sucker hole overtop, and the others have followed suit. Good luck to those up north and south with the big totals.
  2. Chicago WX

    Winter Storm? Jan 18-19th, 2019

    Too much HRRR/RAP love. Those models are crap in their long range. Goal posts for the big snows is between I-80 and the first two rows of southern WI. Seems these set ups like to inch north at game time, but not always. I’d feel pretty good if I was sitting in and around the E/W Tollway.
  3. Chicago WX

    Winter Storm? Jan 18-19th, 2019

    cyclone closing in on his 3rd 6"+ storm of the winter. And another one possibly coming next week? Whatever he's doing, he's doing it right. Pretty amazing. Low confidence call of 2-4" for MBY. Much more confident on the 2 than the 4. Hopefully don't have to downgrade...
  4. Chicago WX

    Winter Storm? Jan 18-19th, 2019

    Yeah, we are kinda screwed sitting in the middle. At least it shouldn’t be a shut out. Some snow is better than no snow.
  5. Chicago WX

    Winter Storm? Jan 18-19th, 2019

    Hi. Models have been very consistent in the sucker hole. IKK just happens to be pretty much locked in it. That’s why I think a Watch for here is kinda silly. It’ll be an advisory at best for the LOT CWA portions, south of I-80. North of there, different story.
  6. Chicago WX

    January 2019 Discussion

    Total mess here this morning. Had freezing drizzle that has now turned to light snow. Everything a sheet of ice. Going to be an awesome day at work.
  7. Chicago WX

    Winter Storm? Jan 18-19th, 2019

    6z RGEM is lol. Rains to LAF. HIRES models are being ridiculous. FGEN plus LES will make for a nice storm for Chicago. Have to have some perspective. Alas, there will be a screw zone of sorts that gets stuck in the middle. Unfortunately I'm sitting dead center in it right now. But, I'm hoping to squeeze out 2-4", which would be a nice refresher.
  8. Chicago WX

    Winter Storm? Jan 18-19th, 2019

    Consensus is in the eye of the beholder I guess. For MBY anyways, pretty clear move in the models..and not for the better. And IMO, the ensembles have been almost useless. Especially the EPS. Consistently too far north up until this point, but they are lower skill. Alas, storm hasn’t happened yet. We watch and wait...
  9. Chicago WX

    Winter Storm? Jan 18-19th, 2019

    Hard to ignore pretty good consensus now. Not that there can't be more changes, good or bad. Regardless, looks like a pretty good storm for the OV crew. Just hoping for a couple inches up here, a refresher of sort.
  10. Chicago WX

    Winter Storm? Jan 18-19th, 2019

    12z GEFS individual member total snowfall thru 0z Monday (10:1 ratio). Purple shading starts the 6" and up totals.
  11. Chicago WX

    Winter Storm? Jan 18-19th, 2019

    Checking my weenie model folder...and the FIM is not running due to the shutdown.
  12. Chicago WX

    Winter Storm? Jan 18-19th, 2019

    lol, I guess I was wrong with FV3. Does some weird jumping around with the slp between 96 and 114 hours...almost looks like it jumps the slp with convection from 102-108...but still manages to drive a 999mb storm into SE Ohio. I'm punting that solution verbatim. End result would probably be more favorable for N IL, IMO.
  13. Chicago WX

    Winter Storm? Jan 18-19th, 2019

    Way too early to freak out for sure. i can only see it thru 96, but the 12z FV3 certainly doesn’t look south as alluded to earlier. But maybe it goes to crap after...
  14. Chicago WX

    Winter 2018-19 Medium/Long Range Discussion

    Just for fun, 12z GFS 10 day total snowfall (kuchera). Congrats Hoosier...
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