beavis1729

Fine to be optimistic, but I don't think you realize how horrible the winter has been west of MI. Much of the northern plains, MN, WI, and N/NW IL (especially far northern IL) has had very little snow cover outside of intermittent dustings...and when the dustings do occur, they sublimate in sunny areas. IMBY, I haven't had more than 1" of snow cover all season, and this will probably hold through the end of January. So while the upcoming pattern after 1/25 may look a bit better relatively speaking, who cares until it actually happens. And, even if it does, it's (yet again) too late to save the winter. This is the 2nd winter in a row where there hasn't been enough snow in northern WI for winter activities, where we've had to cancel plans. It's getting ridiculous. Bad enough for MBY, but at 46N in mid-January, 2 years in a row?? Cold and dry for a 2-3 week period would be ok if there were meaningful snow cover going into it, which is why it's so important to build a base in December...but we can't seem to do that lately either. This had the potential to be a Top 10 cold January if the entire source region and MBY had decent snow cover.

I’ll bite. Unfortunately for you and us in the Midwest, the angle of the cold may be too far east again…even if centered a bit further west than the recent cold. Hopefully you guys can get in on some upslope as the cold presses down, but otherwise the baroclinic zone may again be too far south for any meaningful precipitation north of 40N. Dry and very cold would be wonderful if there were snow cover, but it feels wasted with bare ground. Still a ways out, so plenty of time for changes.

Yeah, me too. I’m sure you’re aware of how great January 1950 was in Portland…hard to imagine something like that happening again!

And the Midwest, northern plains, Rockies, and New England. Take a look at a current snow depth map for these areas…it’s unbelievably bad. The southern 3/4 of MN has bare ground, which is shocking for January 9th. Even northern MN only has 2-4” of snow cover, when they should have 12”+. Unfortunately, it has been a horrible winter for a lot of areas. Hopefully things change soon for all of us, as it’s really getting ridiculous. Speaking for my backyard, we haven’t had a good winter since 2014-15.

Would be a more meaningful graphic if it showed snow depth days (SDDs) instead. It would probably show even more of a deficit in a lot of areas. Many areas in the Midwest and northern plains actually have bare ground or very little snow cover right now, which is unbelievably sad for the time of year.

Way out there, of course...and it's only one Op run...but the 0z Euro brings down the motherload Nice temperature contrast too.

Yeah, 6" on 12/19.

And possibly most of MN, WI, SD, ND, and N IL too. It's shockingly horrible and ridiculous, not much else to say. As an example, Minneapolis only has 8" for the season and has had 0 snow depth since 12/28, with no snow in sight. They've only had 9 days of snow cover so far, wiped away by the Christmas week torch. Even INL only has 3" snow depth...just incredibly bad.

Spot on - you took the words right out of my mouth. Hopefully the 12z op Euro is an outlier, and the 12z EPS isn't trending this way.

Not to minimize that extreme event of course, but it would translate to approximately -35F on the new/current wind chill scale.

Good stuff. 1/20/1985 was Chicago’s all time coldest temperature, -27F.

My issue with chinooks is not so much how long the associated warm temps last. It’s that they even occur in the first place, especially during the heart of winter (12/15 to 2/15). Any day 40F and higher is too warm for me in winter, and we’ll probably have 5 consecutive 40+ days next week. Not easy to preserve snow cover and frozen lakes with temps like that. I’m a fan of having a part of winter that is sacred and untouchable, in other words it should feel like winter simply because of the calendar instead of having to hope for a certain pattern or teleconnection. In July/August, 95+% of days feel like summer here. Would be nice to have that same experience in winter, at least for a 4-6 week period.

Yeah, the "too far east trough" has really hurt the winter so far in much of the country...essentially anywhere east of the Rockies outside of the lake effect snow belts. That's a big chunk of real estate. The chinooks in MT/CO have been crazy. Denver is +7.6F above normal for Dec so far, even vs. the warmer 1991-2020 normals...and this will probably increase even more by month's end. This creates two problems: (1) the "angle of the cold" is all wrong, so we're left with generally windy and dry conditions (2) the western ridge is so far east that, when the trough relaxes/kicks out periodically, the warmth floods in quickly. That's what will happen during the next week starting around Christmas. We finally had a modest snow in our neck of the woods, and were looking forward to snow on the ground for our annual New Year's trip to central WI...but warm air will wipe out all the snow cover during the next week, even up around 44N and most of WI. Similar to the past 2 winters, the winter sports industry (mainly snowmobiling) is getting whacked up there again. Most years, they have a solid 3 months of reliable snow cover, from 12/15 to 3/15. Very unfortunate. We need to shake up the pattern, and hopefully the trough will be further west in early Jan. As of now, it looks somewhat promising...but still way out there in model land.

Amazingly, ORD had 1,130 SDDs in 1978-79. Unbelievable winter.

Great story, and it’s what brings us all here. Hoping against all hope.

Ding ding ding. This is the same issue in the Midwest/Plains/Great Lakes too. While one could say we've had a relatively chilly December (I say "relatively" since the 1991-2020 normals have warmed so much from 30-40 years ago, so you really need a -5F departure these days in Dec to be meaningful), only the downwind areas of the great lakes have seen any respectable snow this season. And when it warms up in between, even the lake snow melts except for far northern areas...so we're left with bare ground in the source regions...in which case any better/colder pattern which may come along in Jan can't maximize the cold. If it's not one thing, it's another. This pattern would be fine later in the season if there were already widespread snow on the ground, as it would help preserve snow cover and reinforce cold temps. But not in Nov/early Dec - just bad timing.

Right...and of course it's not meant to be personal. But while relentless optimism is probably a good thing overall in life, it sometimes comes across insensitive and out of touch…as it invalidates others’ concerns and valid points. After 8 bad winters in a row, there are reasons to be frustrated, right? Of course, you’re not responsible for making others feel better on a wx board…but there’s another dynamic going on here. People like us who enjoy deep cold, snow, and everything about winter (which presumably includes you too!) don’t get any sympathy from the public. So, we often come here for that, as everyone likes to feel part of a group with shared interests. So, your comment about a possible 1-2” of snow on the solstice is tone deaf, since (even if it actually occurs) it will be gone by Christmas…with a torch possible for the last week of 2024. In all of your comments, there's an underlying tone of "why are you complaining?" But many of us look at it differently, i.e., who cares about 1-2” on the solstice in this setting, given how bad Dec has been up to this point and is expected to be post-Christmas. And when you keep saying that December has been chilly up to this point, many folks have two issues with that: (1) There’s hardly any snow cover in the Midwest, Plains, and GL…much less in our back yards…so who cares about the relative cold (2) ORD’s normal temps are about 5F (!) higher for 1991-2020 vs. 1951-1980…so it’s all relative. A normal DJF in 1951-1980 would be ok, but a normal DJF today is way too warm. In other words, you need a -5F departure month to be decent these days. Unfortunately, after struggling with it for years and years, I’ve finally had to acknowledge that our winter climo is horrible. I guess I have you to thank for this, so congratulations. I've been denying it for so long, but have to admit that you’re right. What capped it off for me is looking at Snow Depth Days (SDDs), where you add up each day’s snow depth in inches across the whole season. It’s a great way to compare the severity of winters, as it combines snow, temps, and snow cover into one easy number. After doing this, the 1976-1985 period sticks out like a sore thumb to periods before and after. This is horrible for me to accept, as I grew up on winters during that time and therefore it became my expectation. But even so, people are still going to wish for “better than normal” on a wx board. So, it’s annoying to constantly be told that these wishes are not logical…even though it may technically be true. I hear this from the public all the time, so we don’t need to keep hearing it on a wx board full of our fellow weenies. Yes, we know our climo is horrible…and, no, we don’t want to keep hearing about it. Chicago annual average SDDs (winters ending in the years noted) 1966-1975: 162 1976-1985: 343 1986-1995: 113 1996-2005: 187 2006-2015: 225 2016-2024: 130 Even though the 2006-2015 winters look relatively good in the above chart, they weren’t really that good in my mind. So now I need to accept that, compared to the last 8 winters, those winters were like living in Siberia. Definitely not an easy pill to swallow. As an example, for two of these winters in particular: 2008-09: Many people think this was a great winter…but there was no snow cover at ORD from 12/27 to 1/9, then the wintry feel essentially ended after 2/8. You need to have snow on the ground for most/all of Dec 15th – Feb 15th in order to have a proper winter. Doesn’t need to be a lot of snow cover, just 3” so that blades of grass aren’t showing. 2010-11: Even with the GHD storm, there were significant periods of no snow cover (such as 12/31 to 1/11, right in the heart of winter)…and we couldn’t even hold on to the GHD snow cover beyond 2/17. When you get that much snow at the beginning of Feb, it should stay on the ground through the end of the month. If it were Nov or March, that’s different. Just too many thaws. As always, our issue isn’t snow – it’s temps. If we had a reliable 30-50” of seasonal snow with average temps 5-8F colder than our current norms, we’d be in good shape. That’s why the warming of DJF normal temps by 5F over the past 40 years is so devastating. Every degree matters in this area. We don’t need blizzards and subzero temps – but the thaws are just too much to overcome. Thaws need to have temps in the 30s, not 40s and 50s. Even this morning was frustrating. We finally got a dusting of snow, but it didn’t stick on the pavement, and will probably melt today in the sun despite the somewhat chilly temps. Snow isn't supposed to melt in the sun on 12/18. It’s like everything is going against maintaining a proper winter vibe around here. That’s why you need to build a base in the first 2 weeks of December…since dustings of snow would then be welcomed and not worried about, since they just refresh the existing snow cover. When you keep starting from scratch on snow cover over and over again, a million variables need to go right to get things going. It’s just exhausting. Winter shouldn’t just be “cooler than July with occasional periods of snow and cold”…as if getting a couple of decent snow events in DJF is a win. But that’s how low our expectations have sunk. It’s not about individual “events”; it’s the feel of the whole winter. That’s like saying our expectation for summer should only be “milder than January with occasional warm days”…which of course isn’t true. No one in their right mind would be happy with that in summer.

“Thank you, sir, for only punching me in the face instead of kicking me in the ****!” Not that it matters, but ORD is much worse than DTW. Zero days of 1” snow cover.

Right, and that was a great end of January...but then it was in the 40s two days after this with rain...and then winter essentially ended after that. And Dec 2018 was bad too. Everyone likes to point out wintry periods...but winter is 13 weeks, not 1-2 weeks. A good portion of the snowfall that winter was in Nov and Apr, which skewed the numbers since the snow wasn't in DJF and therefore didn't have any staying power. DJF only saw 28.6"...not horrible, but not great. And Dec only had 1.4", which is when you need to build the base for winter. That's why it's frustrating - like we work so hard to finally get a good wintry period in late January...then it lasts for 7-10 days...then it all blows up in 2 days. No one is expecting it to remain below zero of course, but the thaws should be 25-35F, not 40s with rain. Another annoying thing about that period - ORD's UHI only allowed for a min of -23F during that cold snap. The air mass was definitely there to challenge the all-time coldest -27F on 1/20/1985, which makes me think it will never be broken. ORD performs "best" on advective cold, which was the case on 1/30/2019...but then 1/31/2019 was more radiational cold.

SDDs are a seasonal metric - "snow depth days". You add each day's snow depth (in inches) for the whole season. It's a great way to compare the severity of winter seasons...as it combines temperature, snowfall, and snow cover/retention all in one metric.

Your response is logical, and of course appreciated. I know you’re coming from a good place. My point is that, when you love the beauty of winter and everything that goes along with it, it’s hard to deal with the trend of recent seasons. It’s like being a sports fan…there’s a lot of tradition, family, emotion, and deeper meaning to it all. It’s more than just the game itself. That’s how I feel about winter. Everyone else can have the other 9 months each year…but let winter be winter.

Agree, nice analysis. Hopefully this timing holds, and we can get some good upstream snow cover in advance of this. 2013-14 had it, but unfortunately snow cover across the lower 48 is currently anemic at best. While there have been cold shots, only the immediate lake belts have benefited…and even there, too many thaws to maintain the snow cover. Just seems extremely difficult to get a proper and truly wintry December east of the Rockies these days.

I was talking about Chicago. But the point still stands, as even your coldest Junes still had average daily mean temps in the upper 60s, which probably translates to highs in the upper 70s. That’s pretty warm to me.

Even if it has been cooler than recent torch Decembers, this isn't saying much. It's supposed to be cold in December; why is that such a big deal? Our coldest December 1-10 since 2010 - and what will we have to show for it for the rest of winter? Nothing. And a -5F departure vs. the 1991-2020 normals is not very impressive anyway, since the normals are so warm these days and keep getting worse over time. Also, it just shows how obscenely warm Decembers have been since 2010...but we're celebrating this?? And, even in this supposed "cold" December, there's very little meaningful snow cover in the lower 48. I guess one could blame the dry pattern due to the W ridge being too far east...but even if we would have had snow east of the Rockies during the "cold" Dec 1-10, it would melt by Dec. 20th in most places. The point is that a supposed "cold" pattern still leads to pitiful snow retention at the time when winter should be in full force due to short daylight, Christmas, etc. The point is that, no matter who argues with whom about 5,000,000 meaningless details, we can never seem to put together a decent stretch of winter in December, i.e., a "base" to set the tone fo rthe rest of the winter. Not saying we don't get cold periods sometimes...but they are interrupted by way too many thaws. You can't run a winter like that. Once a lake starts to freeze, it should freeze over - not this back and forth freezing and melting crap. It's not too much to ask for wintry conditions in a winter month, and our standards deserve to be higher. Who knew that December shouldn't be expected to be a wintry month anymore? That's what many seem to be implying on this board - it's a ridiculous notion full of denial and despair. Like the 5 stages of grief - we've just given up even when we deserve better. Is June not a summer month? Over the last 50 years, there have been 2 Junes which could be considered non-summery: 1992 and 2009. Ok, so 2 out of 50 years. That's how December should be - 48 out of every 50 should be wintry. This means highs 25-30 and lows in the teens, with building snowpack and ice beginning to form on lakes...and an occasional day of 40+. But people are now happy if half the days in December have sub-40 highs. Pretty soon, people will rationalize being thankful that December is cooler than July - hooray!!! P.S. Who cares about forecasting getting the pattern right. On a forum containing mostly winter weather enthusiasts, all that matters is whether a cold & snowy outcome prevails. SDDs are all that matters, not snow amounts. I think ORD has 3.1" of snow for the season, but most came in one day and it melted within 12-24 hours. But some use this as a way to say that "at least Chicago hasn't been shut out from snow, and it's not really as bad as some seasons up to this point". But that's nonsense - people expect you to be ok with 12-24 hours of modest snow cover as of 12/16, with very little hope in sight for the next 1-2 weeks? If someone could conduct an analysis showing the 10-year moving average of SDDs east of the Rockies since 1950, it would tell the story completely. Our winters are becoming a disaster, and no sugar-coating will help. No one is saying that *periods* of wintry weather aren't possible...but DJF is 13 weeks, not 2-4 weeks. Every single December, it's the same crap over and over again for the eastern 2/3 of the country...not just one localized region. It's ridiculous. Mods can move this to whatever banter/venting thread you want - doesn't matter anymore. And I know how people will respond - and the pre-emptive answer is "No, I shouldn't need to move to Fairbanks AK to experience winter." The only hope is for a change to the AMO cycle - but will that really matter? It's hard to be optimistic.

But "normal" is very mild these days, compared to 30-50 years ago. So a colder than normal December doesn't really mean much imo, unless the departure is -5 or more.