beavis1729

Not a spread the wealth event on 18z GFS...as much of that map west of MI is from today's event plus a bit more Thu AM before the main event.

NA record is 1079mb in Dawson, Yukon 2/2/1989. Lower 48 record is 1064mb at Miles City MT 12/24/1983.

12z GEM shows a 1070 (!) mb high pressure north of MT at the end of the run, with temps near -60F. Just incredible to see this on a map...

Yeah. There’s a pixel of -59F in SW Montana, near Yellowstone…and near 0F in Seattle. Quite the temperature gradient too.

You aren't kidding - there's a pixel of -59F in SW Montana, near Yellowstone. Nice temp gradient too...

Adding to the debate on how bad this December has been relative to other clunkers: It hasn't necessarily been the worst December in every single area (for example, it's been horrendous IMBY...but with very few extremely mild days, it won't be record warmest). Just constantly above average, day after day after day...which is just as bad. With that said, the lack of snow and cold on average across the entire CONUS has been shocking, way worse than I've ever seen in any December. One anecdotal data point: INL's record warmest December is 22.8F in 1913 (records go back to 1906). As it looks now, December 2023 will obliterate that. Through Dec. 21st, the average has been 25.9F. While it may cool down towards the very end of the month, the 25.9F average will go even higher over the next 5-7 days. Breaking a monthly record by 3-4 degrees on a POR of 117 years is noteworthy. And INL has only had 2.9" of snow since Nov. 12th, with no snow cover on most of those days...just horrible. This is the icebox of the nation, around 49N in the Midwest. Our annual mid-January snowmobiling trip to northern WI is in jeopardy - just no snow to be found anywhere. Usually, their snowmobiling season starts in mid-December. Places with a nearly 100% chance of a White Christmas won't be seeing one this year.

This (and the Winnipeg green Christmas) shows why this December is so much worse than a typical bad December. Very few places in NA south of 55N will have a White Christmas. This is probably unprecedented. Not just the absence of a White Christmas , but the lack of snowfall at all. There has hardly been any snow all season in the Dakotas, MT, MN, WI, MI, IA, etc. Winter is nowhere to be found, anywhere. I know it’s still early to write off the whole season, but you can’t deny how pathetic December 2023 will be when all is said and done.

Yeah, and 12z continues it. Hopefully it’s a delayed but not denied situation. For several days/runs, models were showing highs in the 20s here on Thanksgiving Day, now they’re showing 45-50.

Yeah, 77-78 and 78-79 were the two snowiest winters in Chicago’s history. 82” and 90” respectively…and in 78-79 some places in far NE IL exceeded 100”. Plus, peak music…and disco ruled. Good times!

This was also the 3rd warmest min on record for so late in the season. Min was also 65 on 10/29/1946 and 10/31/1974. Highest min on record for November is 63.

Low at ORD this morning was 81. If this holds through midnight (actually, even if it stays at 79+), it will be the warmest min on record for so late in the season. Next closest is 78 on 8/27/2020. We'll have to see if any storms or the lake-enhanced front brings the temp down before midnight.

Macomb IL is reporting 100/84/131 at 3 PM.

I know this thread is focused on TX/OK...but Baton Rouge, LA just set a new record with 9 consecutive 100+ days...and the streak could reach 12+ days. 7 of the last 8 days have set or tied a record high. The heat in the south has been unbelievable this summer. Not just local areas - basically the entire southern tier of the US.

https://www.weather.gov/lot/observation_history ^ Here’s a link to the obs locations for Chicago weather records, back to the 1870s. Unfortunately the official site has changed a lot, so it’s hard to compare apples to apples over time. ORD is much different than downtown/lakeside, whether due to lake impacts or UHI (although the UHI at ORD keeps worsening over time). ORD has been the official site since 1980, even as ORD data goes back to 1959.

I know many of you are focused on Dallas and Houston, but south of there in TX it has been a brutally hot and humid summer. Corpus Christi has had excessive heat warnings nearly every day for the past month. Besides hot temperatures, the humidity has been crazy due to above normal GOM temps. Constant dew points between 76-82 for weeks on end…not sure how people can deal with this.

Same here, definitely noticeable and very bad.

Drought Information Statement National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 1114 AM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023 /1214 PM EDT Thu Jun 15 2023/ ...Moderate to Severe Drought Conditions Now Exist Across Portions of Northeast Illinois and Northwest Indiana... SYNOPSIS... Many areas of northern Illinois northwest and Indiana have received significantly below average rainfall since the beginning of spring. For example, Midway Airport in Chicago, Illinois, has recorded just 2.72 inches of precipitation since April 1, which is 7.1 inches below the 30-year average and the second lowest since the early 1900s. Similar rainfall deficits are present across much of northeast Illinois and far northwest Indiana. Drought conditions have thus further deteriorated across much of the area. Severe drought conditions are now present across portions of far northeastern Illinois and far northwestern Indiana, including the Chicago metropolitan area. Severe drought conditions are now present in multiple areas in northern Illinois and northwest Indiana, including the Chicago metropolitan area. Moderate drought conditions cover corridor from west central Illinois through northern Indiana outside of the severe drought area. SUMMARY OF IMPACTS... Volunteer observers across the area indicate lower than typical water levels in ponds and streams. Reports also indicate that some lawns have gone dormant. There has also been stress to trees and shrubs. Limited impacts to agriculture have been reported, including reduced growth rates. Data available from the Illinois State Water Survey, USGS, and NCEP indicate that soil moisture, groundwater, and surface water levels remain below normal. CLIMATE SUMMARY... Over the last 30 days, rainfall in northeast Illinois and northwest Indiana has ranged from 5% to 75% of average. The most significant rainfall deficits over the last 30 days were located near the Chicago metro area, including Cook, DuPage, Will, and Lake (IL) counties. PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK... There are only very limited chances for rainfall over the next 7 days, with amounts across the greater Midwest region generally forecast to be less than 0.5 inches. Dry and warm conditions are forecast next week, with highs in the 80s. The Climate Prediction Center`s (CPC) 30-Day Outlook indicates no strong signal for above or below average preciptiation over the next 6-10 days or the next 7-14 days. HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK... For most rivers in northern Illinois streamflow values are below average for this time of year. Multiple small streams are near the lowest observed streamflow levels for mid-June. Without additional rainfall, river and stream levels will remain below average or slowly fall. At many locations, groundwater and soil moisture remain below average. Without additional rainfall, soil moisture and groundwater levels will remain at low levels.

Kingsville TX was 101/81/125 earlier today…wow.

Even worse today, 100/81/123 in Kingsville and 108/74/122 in Cotulla...and sunny skies in both places.

Horrible heat and humidity in TX…Kingsville is currently 101/79/121.

A general comment, not just directed at you: most people on this forum know their climo. But if you’re a warm weenie (or snow, severe, etc.), climo isn’t good enough. It’s just how life goes. If you’re a sports fan, an average season isn’t good enough. You don’t play the game for an average season, you play to win it all. And if you enjoy something in life, you want more of it. I like chocolate, so eating an average amount of chocolate isn’t good enough. I know these are strange analogies, but it’s reality.

In addition to setting a new seasonal snowfall record, Duluth finished in 2nd place for 1"+ snow cover days. Unless there's an unusual snow event over the next couple of weeks, this season will end with 157 days. The record is 167 days in 1995-96. And, Duluth finished with 151 consecutive days of 1"+ snow cover (Nov 15th through April 14th). As impressive as this is, it falls quite a bit short of the record 164 days in 1995-96 (Nov 10th through April 21st). Both of those 1995-96 records will be very difficult to break.

Yeah…as much as we both seem to enjoy the wonder of snow and cold, even I’m ready for some warmth by April. By then, the days are long no matter where you are in the northern hemisphere…so it doesn’t seem like winter needs to hang around. Give me deep winter from November to March, then 60s and 70s the rest of the year.