BuffaloWeather

UK has over 5" of QPF.....

Noon runs

Just through sat 5 am. This event goes into Monday evening

12z high res

Just unreal start to winter. Not even sure if its possible to get a better one. Hopefully you guys can get in on the action soon.

Will be posting a ton on Twitter and YouTube.

Kuch ratios are likely a bit too high with the wind speeds that are coming, but models are spitting out almost 4" of QPF.

4-5' south of Buffalo and 5-6' off Ontario

Anyone from upstate region or chasing this one send me PM for discord invite. We have over 60 members that joined.

Been following weather for 20+ yrs and never seen anything like what's coming this weekend. Blizz of 77/85 are comparables.

UK a little further south

Higher res are slightly further north

GFS and GEM going nuts, ratios will be higher in this event than the last 2 with the colder temps.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... ...Once in a Generation Winter Storm to Slam the Region Heading into and THROUGH the Christmas Weekend... Old Man Winter will unleash the full fury of winter upon our region during this period...as an extremely amplified longwave pattern will spawn one of the most intense storm systems in decades to impact the Mid West and Great Lakes region. This system will likely end up setting low pressure records once it passes north of the border and will have the potential to generate at LEAST storm force winds over the Lower Great lakes. As if the very real threat for damaging winds of 60-70 mph were not enough...there will also be the risk for a prolonged...paralyzing heavy lake effect snow event. The very strong to damaging winds, blowing and drifting snow with localized blizzard conditions preceded by a rapid flash freeze all coming right before the Christmas holiday weekend resulted in a *long duration* winter storm watch being issued for western NY. A Winter Storm Watch has also now been issued for Jefferson and Lewis county from midday Friday through Monday. While heavy lake effect snows have already occurred this winter season...this will be the first event with multiple impacts from such intense winds. Winter storm watches are already in effect for parts of western New York with the high component wrapped into the same product. An extremely amplified longwave pattern during this period will spawn one of the most intense storm systems in decades to impact the Mid West and Great Lakes region. This system will likely end up setting low pressure records once it passes north of the border and will have the potential to generate storm force winds over the Lower Great lakes. Explosive cyclogenesis will take place over the mid western states into southern Ontario on Friday...as an anomalously strong 150kt H25 jet will pass through the base of a very deep longwave trough. This will support rapid deepening of a corresponding sfc low that will track southern Ontario by late Friday. The `bombing` low will deepen from roughly 990mb in the vcnty of Lake Erie/Lower Michigan late Thursday night...to 982mb over southernmost Ontario Friday morning to about 968mb near the Ontario-Quebec border by Friday evening... easily meeting the definition of bombogenesis (24mb/24hrs). Such deepening is relatively rare in the LOWER Great lakes...but more common across the UPPER Great Lakes and certainly with Nor`easters along the coast. Some of the parameters of this intense storm are climatologically `off the charts`...such as MSLP and strength of both the low level and upper level jets. One could certainly describe this storm system as a once in a generation type of event. Subtle differences remain...but there remains general model agreement in the overall large scale scenario...which adds confidence. The rapidly intensifying low is forecast to pass just to our west on Friday. Winds will ramp up in the cold air advection and during when max pressure rise/fall couplet crosses. This is about as good as it gets in terms of maximizing winds/gusts to the sfc. Several guidance packages are now advertising wind gusts over the IAG Frontier to near 60 mph late in the day as another intense 70kt LLJ enters the region. This is NOT when the strongest winds are expected though. That is yet to come. In regards to pcpn on Friday...the strong winds will open the door for MUCH colder air to pour across our forecast area. This will result in a RAPID change over of the rain to snow with deep frontogenetic forcing leading to a burst of moderately heavy snow that will yield accumulations of several inches expected by late afternoon. Temperatures that will start the day in the low to mid 40s in most areas will PLUMMET into the single digits across the Srn Tier by the end of the day...while readings will range from the teens across the remainder of wrn NY to the lower 30s east of Lake Ontario. This dramatic plunge in temperatures will likely result in a flash freeze of the snow/water/slush. As the extremely deep storm system further deepens in place over the Ontario-Quebec border Friday night...a strong secondary cold front/sfc trough will plow across our forecast area. This will be accompanied by the second 70kt low level jet that...being found in the cold sector...should largely mix to the sfc at times. The threat for high winds at the sfc will be greatest in the typical corridor from Lake Erie and the IAG Frontier to Rochester and then to the Thousand Island region. Increased winds some in these corridors. Power outages will be a concern as will be blowing snow and drifting snow. The widespread synoptic snow during the first half of Friday night should then taper off as the deepest forcing exits and limited drying arrives in the mid levels. Meanwhile...a 230-240 flow of -20c H85 air will promote an area of lake snow to become established Buffalo northward...across IAG and the Northtowns. The snow... whether it be synoptic or lake induced in nature...will be blown around by +50 mph winds so significant blowing and drifting can be anticipated along with near zero visibility and at least localized blizzard conditions. As is typically the case...the very strong southwest flow will also shove a great deal of water up to the Buffalo end of Lk Erie...so lakeshore flooding will be a possibility. More specifics on that in the lakeshore flooding discussion. A very tight sfc pressure gradient will remain in place across our forecast area on the day before Christmas...so while the winds should diminish as bit by way of a weaker LLJ especially later in the day, they will still be strong enough to possibly cause issues and certainly to support continued blowing snow. Models have trended a bit quicker with veering of winds, to more of 240-250 flow so that more of the Buffalo Metro would be impacted by lake snows Saturday into Saturday night with the visibility remaining near zero at times within the band. It will be quite cold with Saturdays highs ranging from the single digits over the Srn Tier to the teens and low 20s elsewhere resulting wind chills falling to as low as 10 to 20 degrees below zero.

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... * WHAT...A rapid switch from rain to snow with sharply falling temperatures into the teens and single digits will result in a flash freeze on Friday. From Friday afternoon through most of the weekend, very strong winds, heavy lake effect snow and significant blowing and drifting snow will be possible. Winds could gust as high as 65 mph Friday into Friday night. Localized blizzard conditions are possible. * WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, Erie, Genesee, Wyoming, Chautauqua, and Cattaraugus counties. * WHEN...From Friday morning through Monday morning. * IMPACTS...Travel for the holiday weekend, including Friday, could be very difficult to impossible at times. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility with whiteouts and localized blizzard conditions possible. The most persistent and worst conditions will be where lake effect snow is most widespread, which is still uncertain at this time. Winds this strong could cause tree damage and power outages. Cold wind chills as low as 10 to 20 below zero this weekend could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes.

Buf NWS calling this a once in a generation type event. Feet of snow, 70+ mph wind gusts, with whiteout conditions.

I'm in the Northeast and have over 100" already.

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... * WHAT...A rapid switch from rain to snow with sharply falling temperatures into the teens will result in a flash freeze on Friday. From Friday afternoon through most of the weekend, very strong winds, heavy lake effect snow and significant blowing and drifting snow will be possible. Winds could gust as high as 65 mph Friday into Friday night. Localized blizzard conditions are possible. * WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, Erie, Genesee, Wyoming, Chautauqua, and Cattaraugus counties. * WHEN...From Friday morning through Monday morning. * IMPACTS...Travel for the holiday weekend, including Friday, could be very difficult to impossible at times. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility with whiteouts and localized blizzard conditions possible. The most persistent and worst conditions will be where lake effect snow is most widespread, which is still uncertain at this time. Winds this strong could cause tree damage and power outages. Cold wind chills as low as 10 to 20 below zero this weekend could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes.

Always love reading your winter outlooks. Most detailed one out there.

Have never seen anything like what Buf NWS has in their forecast discussion

Never seen anything like it. I might be at 150" before the new year lol.

I've been reading Buffalo Forecast discussions for over 20 years and have never seen one like the one issued this morning. Paralyzing lake effect, climatologically off the charts, bombogenesis, once in generation type event.

Come chase this one