BuffaloWeather

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Talk about some crazy noon runs. 150" before the new year?

HWO from Buf. A significant winter storm appears likely to develop and track northeastward across the eastern third of the country Thursday and Friday. Chances are increasing that this system will bring a warmup and widespread rain Thursday and Thursday night...followed by sharply colder conditions and a flash freeze on Friday along with a changeover back to snow. Strong winds will also be possible Friday night and Saturday...with potentially significant lake effect snow also likely developing Saturday and continuing through Christmas Day. Potentially significant lake effect snow and strong winds is expected Friday night and Saturday. The strong winds could also bring lakeshore flooding concerns to areas along the Lake Erie shoreline.

Obviously we just had a big event and not one post here. Everyone is on the discord now, if anyone wants an invite to it PM me on here.

Few vids from the storm Another from the Adirondack storm

https://kamala.cod.edu/ny/latest.nous41.KBUF.html ..Erie County... 4 NW Eden 22.2 in 0230 PM 12/18 42.69N/78.97W 2 NNW Hamburg 21.3 in 0200 PM 12/18 42.75N/78.85W West Seneca 2.5 SE 19.5 in 0415 AM 12/18 42.81N/78.71W/777 Hamburg 2.0 N 18.5 in 0800 AM 12/18 42.75N/78.83W/730 2 SSE Lancaster 18.0 in 1115 AM 12/18 42.87N/78.65W/694 3 SSW Sloan 17.4 in 0200 PM 12/18 42.86N/78.82W Lake View 1NE 16.7 in 0815 AM 12/18 42.73N/78.92W/647 Lancaster 16.5 in 0600 AM 12/18 42.90N/78.67W/664 Lancaster 0.3 S 16.5 in 0600 AM 12/18 42.90N/78.67W 2 SE Sloan 16.0 in 0830 AM 12/18 42.87N/78.76W 2 WNW East Aurora 15.5 in 0900 AM 12/18 42.77N/78.66W/961 2 NNW Elma Center 15.5 in 0840 AM 12/18 42.85N/78.64W Orchard Park 15.0 in 0645 AM 12/18 42.76N/78.74W/859 Hamburg 0.4 WSW 14.5 in 0700 AM 12/18 42.72N/78.84W/791 Hamburg 14.2 in 0845 AM 12/18 42.72N/78.83W Lancaster 14.0 in 0100 PM 12/18 42.90N/78.67W West Seneca 2.5 SE 14.0 in 0415 AM 12/18 42.81N/78.71W/777 Lancaster 13.3 in 0600 AM 12/18 42.90N/78.67W/664 Lancaster 0.3 S 13.3 in 0600 AM 12/18 42.90N/78.67W East Aurora 0.1 ENE 12.4 in 0700 AM 12/18 42.77N/78.62W/918 Elma 2.7 WSW 12.4 in 0700 AM 12/18 42.81N/78.68W/835 N Buffalo Airport 11.8 in 0700 AM 12/18 42.94N/78.72W/701 West Falls 11.8 in 0100 PM 12/18 42.70N/78.68W East Aurora 2.7 SSE 11.5 in 0845 AM 12/18 42.73N/78.61W/1085 2 N Buffalo 11.1 in 1140 PM 12/17 42.92N/78.86W Cheektowaga 2.7 NE 11.0 in 0700 AM 12/18 42.94N/78.72W/702 Clarence 10.8 in 0845 AM 12/18 42.98N/78.58W Williamsville 3.8 E 10.8 in 0700 AM 12/18 42.96N/78.67W/712 Angola 10.6 in 0800 AM 12/18 42.65N/79.03W 4 NW Eden 10.4 in 0730 AM 12/18 42.69N/78.97W 1 SSE Harris Hill 10.3 in 1225 AM 12/18 42.96N/78.67W/724 1 NW Williamsville 10.1 in 0900 AM 12/18 42.97N/78.75W N Buffalo Airport 10.0 in 1054 PM 12/17 42.94N/78.72W/701 3 NE Boston 9.7 in 0100 PM 12/18 42.66N/78.70W/1589

Picked up 21.3" with the last LES event, brings me over 100" on the year already. Looks to be another one coming next weekend with the potential for very high winds accompanying the bands.

This ones gonna be massive, has historic potential. Good luck to you guys out west!

I'll be there for it if it happens!

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... ...Significant lake effect snow becoming more likely this weekend off both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario... Confidence is continuing to grow that there will be a round of significant lake effect snow off both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario this weekend. The more impactful snowfall will likely be focused from the Buffalo southtowns into the western Southern Tier and across the Tug Hill region. Still a little bit earlier, but the current thinking would place the city of Buffalo and the city of Watertown OUT of the axis of the more SIGNIFICANT snowfall. Deepening low pressure across eastern New England by Friday night will move up the New England coastline during the weekend. This will draw gradually colder air into the region Friday night in the wake of the occluded frontal boundary. The incoming air aloft should grow cold enough to support a lake response starting later Friday night with a band of lake effect snow expected to begin east/northeast of Lake Erie. Widespread synoptic snows associated with the coastal low will continue across north central New York. The synoptic snows across north central New York will gradually wind down Saturday, leaving the focus for the remainder of the weekend on the potential for heavy lake effect snow. The airmass coming across the lakes will continue to grow colder with time as 850 mb temperatures eventually drop down to -10C to -12C range as deep synoptic moisture remains in place. This should easily support heavy lake effect off both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. At this forecast range, there does seem to be a general overall model support for an initial southwest flow bringing the potential for the heaviest lake snows to organized to the northeast of the lakes, including the Buffalo metro area and Watertown. However, this is most likely occur for a relatively short duration, generally in the Saturday into Saturday evening time frame. The coldest air would have yet to arrive by this time, so the intensity of the lake effect snow bands are a bit uncertain. Nonetheless, this would be the most favorable time frame for the Buffalo metro area and Watertown to receive the heaviest snowfall. Trough moving through the region Saturday night will bring the coldest air in its wake, but also veer steering winds more westerly (about 260 degrees) and send the heaviest lake snows southward and place the orientation of the heaviest lake snow off Lake Erie south of Buffalo into the Southern Tier and eventually more on the Tug Hill instead of Watertown/Fort Drum. This flow regime will likely stay in place for a more sustained period of time likely through the day on Sunday and even into Sunday night. The lake band intensity should pick up during this time with the potential for snowfall rates of greater than 2 inches per hour at times, leading to significant snowfall totals.

Lake Erie is at 43 degrees, 3 degrees above average for the date.

BUF is using GEM based on latest FD.

Friday Night Pops up to 70% Rain and snow showers likely, becoming all snow after 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Saturday Snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 35. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Saturday Night Snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Sunday Snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 33. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Sunday Night Snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26. Chance of precipitation is 70%

Latest runs look like identical locations to last one with less QPF.

Lake Effect .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Confidence continues to increase that the coastal system to end the week will be followed by the potential for an impactful lake effect snow event this weekend, mainly E and NE of the Lakes. Coastal low will continue to strengthen as it moves slowly NE across eastern New England Friday night, before moving NNE through far eastern Maine on Saturday. Colder air will get drawn into the region Friday night in the wake of the occluded FROPA with any lingering mixed precipitation going over to all snow across western and northcentral NY. Airmass aloft then grows cold enough aloft to support a lake response starting late Friday night with lake effect snow expected to begin off the E/NE end of Lake Erie. Meanwhile widespread synoptic snows associated with the coastal low continue east of Lake Ontario. Primary area of synoptic precip east of Lake Ontario pulls northeast of the area Saturday but mid and upper level cyclonic flow and deeper synoptic moisture remain in place through this weekend while it just grows colder aloft to support lake effect snow. All of this will only further support the development of potentially heavy lake effect snow downwind of the Lakes. At this point, the overall large scale synoptic pattern and local climatological analogs are not quite ideal for a *sustained* SW flow lake effect event. It seems to start that way later Saturday into Saturday night but by later in the weekend flow veers enough to put emphasis to south of Buffalo into the Southern Tier and eventually more on the Tug Hill instead of Watertown/Fort Drum. CIPS analogs and local guidance seem to favor those areas favored by more 260 flow as seeing the greatest chances for longer duration significant lake effect this weekend. That seems reasonable based on especially sfc-H85 trough that elongates over time instead of staying persistent vcnty of northern Ontario and James Bay. As a bonus even the Canadian-NH which typically performs superior with these type of lake effect events is showing that. Supplementing factors will be in play as well including upstream lake connections and potential of several shortwaves pinwheeling through the main upper trough that will likely both enhance lake snows from time to time, but also disrupt wind flow at times causing the bands to temporarily shift. This could limit accumulations in any one location at least providing some breaks in the activity. Eventually the upper level low slowly shifts east to just north of the area Sunday before shifting east across New England Sunday night. This will veer boundary layer flow some with lake snows shifting more due east or even southeast of the Lakes Sunday night. High pressure, drier air and increased shear will start to build in for the start of the new work week which should start to weaken lake snows on Monday. All of this said, timing and location of the lake effect snows will continue to be refined as we get closer to the actual start of the event, especially as higher res model data starts to be included. As folks well versed with lake effect know, it just takes a wind direction change of 10 degrees to make all the difference as to where heaviest band of lake snow occurs. Main point now is to stay up to date with the latest forecasts and statements.

Looks like snowstorm followed by LES for upstate this week Snowstorm: .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... ...Snow and ice possible Thursday with several inches of snow Thursday night into Friday eastern areas... High amplitude pattern with omega block to start will bring a complex winter weather scenario to our region starting late Wednesday night and lasting through Friday. Then into the weekend, lake effect takes focus and that is covered in the long term potion of the discussion. General model agreement in large picture. Broad large upper low over the central Plains with occluded sfc low slowly moves across the Great Lakes through Friday. Occluded front ahead of the low and very moist isentropic ascent along that front will bring a slug of widespread precipitation into far southwest NYS late Wednesday night, spreading across rest of the forecast area on Thursday from west to east. Due to strong high pressure ridge centered over Quebec, it likely takes until late afternoon until any precipitation reaches the eastern Lake Ontario region. That high will be a big player in ptype, which flat out is quite the mess, especially Thursday morning into early Thursday afternoon. Warm air aloft along the occluded front with some guidance showing warm layer at H85-H8 as warm as +5c will be flowing atop temps at the sfc that will be sub-freezing (25-30 on average) thanks to easterly flow out of the high. At first glance, a freezing rain scenario if one had to pick just one ptype. No can do though as some guidance is colder and would favor more sleet and even snow for a while before changeover. Thus the forecast has pretty much all winter types in it right now. Risk for freezing rain and icing of up to two-tenths of an inch is highest over inland portions of western NY down across the Southern Tier while lower elevations that could see wintry mix earlier on Thursday should switch to rain with downslope se flow warming near sfc temps enough. Once you get east of the Genesee valley and maybe even slightly west of there, mainly just snow for ptype as this warm layer stays at bay to the west. Now, come mid to late afternoon, the ptype evolution changes as in a Miller type B fashion the main focus for low-level cyclogenesis will shift to along the Carolinas. By that time, warm nose aloft pretty much disappears so that any ptype issues late Thursday afternoon onward will be function of near sfc temps as aloft, it will be mainly a snow scenario. By sunset Thursday evening, best chance for several inches of snow would be centered on the Genesee valley while best chance for ice would be in areas highlighted earlier. Elsewhere, a messy mix will lead to minor snow and ice amounts. These are just estimations right now and caution is advised that with such a dynamic system, ptype and amounts of snow and ice could change from this forecast. A couple of alternate scenarios would be if the warm layer is quicker to diminish or not as strong in the first place that would lead to more snow on the front side of this system. Or, if the warm layer hangs on longer, then that would result in more ice at least inland from the lakes. Will be something to watch as we get closer. Thursday night the main emphasis will shift to the Finger Lakes and eastern Lake Ontario region. Snow will be the main ptype by then and there could be several inches of heavy wet snow into Friday. Lower elevations will still see a mix of rain/snow which would limit snow accums. CIPS analogs and probability guidance hits the terrain in a swath from western Finger Lakes to the Adirondacks and on to the south and east for the heaviest snow potential. Meanwhile back west over western NY expect a chance of rain/snow with minimal snow accumulations as main focus will be off to the east. Expect highs in the lower to middle 30s higher terrain and upper 30s lower elevations.

Although synoptic precip east of Lake Ontario pulls northeast of the area Saturday, mid and upper level cyclonic flow and deeper synoptic moisture will remain in place through this weekend, which will only further support the development of potentially heavy lake effect snow downwind of the Lakes. ***At this time*** the overall flow looks to average 250-260 degrees Saturday through Sunday, directing lake effect plumes E/ENE of the Lakes through much of the weekend. That said, the mid and upper level low is not in the ideal climatological position with it being centered over the upper Great Lakes on Saturday. Would like to see it displaced further north, however still looks favorable synoptically. Upstream lake connections will also play important roles. In addition, the center of the upper low will drift east through the weekend with several shortwaves pinwheeling through the main upper trough that will likely both enhance lake snows from time to time, but also disrupt wind flow at times causing the bands to temporarily shift. This could limit accumulations in any one location at least providing some breaks in the activity. Upper level low slowly shifts east to just north of the area Sunday before shifting east across New England Sunday night. This will veer boundary layer flow some with lake snows shifting more due east of Lakes Sunday night. High pressure, drier air and increased shear will start to build in for the start of the new work week which should start to weaken lake snows on Monday. All of this said, timing and location of the LE snows will continue to be refined as we get closer to the actual start of the event, especially as higher res model data starts to be included.

A storm system moving out of the Plains has the potential to bring a variety of wintry precipitation Thursday into Friday. Most of the precipitation should fall as snow, but some rain, sleet or freezing rain may also mix it. Several inches of heavy wet snow is possible along with minor ice accumulations. There is the potential for significant lake effect snow this weekend. There is still considerable uncertainty in the exact placement of the lake effect bands and amounts, but it is possible there will be periods of heavy snow across southern Erie and Wyoming counties, as well as the western Southern Tier.

Check your pms stash.

Heading into the weekend, the air mass aloft will become cold enough (model 850mb temperatures range from -10 to -14) to support a lake response. Model guidance packages from 11/00Z, 11/12Z, and 12/00Z continue to support unidirectional vertical wind profile in the lower levels along with the cold temperatures aloft to support lake snows east/northeast of both lakes. Despite the model continuity, this event remains in the farthest reaches of the forecast and therefore the mesoscale features are yet to be well represented this far out. But as of right now, there is high potential for lake effect snow east and northeast of both lakes Erie and Ontario Saturday through Sunday.

Lock it in

Bills snow game next weekend?

In a general sense, a -AO/-NAO pattern increases the likelihood of impactful winter weather in the northeast US, but in this case it is also coupled with a -PNA pattern, which favors cold to be focused more in the Northwest US and northern Plains with seasonable warmth favored on average in the eastern US. Model guidance continues to show considerable uncertainty starting next weekend with significant run to run swings in the handling of synoptic scale details, which is to be expected in a large scale pattern such as this. This will likely continue in the coming days as model guidance attempts to distill this low predictability pattern. Any one model run should be taken with a grain of salt in this pattern.

It finally melted