BuffaloWeather

Heading into the weekend, the air mass aloft will become cold enough (model 850mb temperatures range from -10 to -14) to support a lake response. Model guidance packages from 11/00Z, 11/12Z, and 12/00Z continue to support unidirectional vertical wind profile in the lower levels along with the cold temperatures aloft to support lake snows east/northeast of both lakes. Despite the model continuity, this event remains in the farthest reaches of the forecast and therefore the mesoscale features are yet to be well represented this far out. But as of right now, there is high potential for lake effect snow east and northeast of both lakes Erie and Ontario Saturday through Sunday.

Lock it in

Bills snow game next weekend?

In a general sense, a -AO/-NAO pattern increases the likelihood of impactful winter weather in the northeast US, but in this case it is also coupled with a -PNA pattern, which favors cold to be focused more in the Northwest US and northern Plains with seasonable warmth favored on average in the eastern US. Model guidance continues to show considerable uncertainty starting next weekend with significant run to run swings in the handling of synoptic scale details, which is to be expected in a large scale pattern such as this. This will likely continue in the coming days as model guidance attempts to distill this low predictability pattern. Any one model run should be taken with a grain of salt in this pattern.

It finally melted

Had 2 free PTO days from work. In 2014 I had a full week off paid. I love these events lol.

This event was quite widespread. The low QPF LES events usually happen early on in the year when the lakes are warm Nov/December primarily. The BUF NWS has a nice page that keeps track of LES events. I probably average a 2 footer + per year. I don't live in the snowbelt, just a southern suburb. South of here in the snowbelts average 200"+ and off the tug 300"+. I'd say almost every year we get a 3-4'+ event off Erie and off Ontario the potential is greater. https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive

my socials went nuts, over 20 million impressions between youtube and twitter, I was debating on what event I liked more between 2014 and 2022. 2014 had whiteouts like I've never seen with the higher winds and 2022 had nonstop thundersnow. They are my 1a/1b at top above every other event.

Highest I saw was 5.5” QPF

Still a few inches on the ground here. Stuff had sticking power with 5” SWE in my core sample. We had 40s and 50s for almost 2 weeks straight. Had snow on ground from Nov 16-today. I’m a snowfall rates guy so dont really care about snow depth unless it’s extreme 3’+. It snowed a few hours after this, but this was close to the max depth.

Nov Temps: BUF: +2.3 ROC: +1.9 WAT: +3.0 SYR: +4.7 BING: +3.2

LES chase last night

Another close call up in the high peaks. Becoming a far too common occurrence these days. https://dailygazette.com/2022/11/30/missing-schenectady-teen-found-freezing-in-adirondacks-dec-says/?fbclid=IwAR0XLpuEnFHmQNIhy6s4mZYGLjzScSB5sjIbC8Ibe1d6ht6-ELfpE7boZOM

Picked up an inch last night up to 79.9" on the year.

Some heavy graupel here tonight

Since I finally got over 1k subs I am able to livestream on youtube now! I did my first tonight with some intense LES off Erie. Got a good clip of some thundersnow!

Windy today with some LES setting up across southern tier and tug

Next few weeks we see a stout -NAO with the PNA eventually going neutral. This results in the colder air out west slowly moving eastward over time. Not a terrible look starting around Dec 6th-7th. We will have chances of snow from around that date and onward for most of December.

40s and 50s all week with lots of sunshine. Still a solid foot on the ground!

An incredible video encapsulating the event from just across the border in Canada. Some of the images/videos in this recap are insane, especially the night time ones looking out across the lake.

This was a good one too, if lake wasn't frozen would have been an all timer. Had blizzard conditions, gusts over 50 MPH consistently and temps in the single digits. https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2013-2014&event=G 42" in east aurora which matched Dec 2010 total. All timer for Tug. https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2006-2007&event=L Another one not talked about much, almost 4' maxes off both lakes. " Which allowed the plows to begin the dig-out from an event that dropped over two-feet of fresh snow over portions of the Buffalo Southtowns in only 6 to 8 hours. https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2016-2017&event=E