BuffaloWeather

Although synoptic precip east of Lake Ontario pulls northeast of the area Saturday, mid and upper level cyclonic flow and deeper synoptic moisture will remain in place through this weekend, which will only further support the development of potentially heavy lake effect snow downwind of the Lakes. ***At this time*** the overall flow looks to average 250-260 degrees Saturday through Sunday, directing lake effect plumes E/ENE of the Lakes through much of the weekend. That said, the mid and upper level low is not in the ideal climatological position with it being centered over the upper Great Lakes on Saturday. Would like to see it displaced further north, however still looks favorable synoptically. Upstream lake connections will also play important roles. In addition, the center of the upper low will drift east through the weekend with several shortwaves pinwheeling through the main upper trough that will likely both enhance lake snows from time to time, but also disrupt wind flow at times causing the bands to temporarily shift. This could limit accumulations in any one location at least providing some breaks in the activity. Upper level low slowly shifts east to just north of the area Sunday before shifting east across New England Sunday night. This will veer boundary layer flow some with lake snows shifting more due east of Lakes Sunday night. High pressure, drier air and increased shear will start to build in for the start of the new work week which should start to weaken lake snows on Monday. All of this said, timing and location of the LE snows will continue to be refined as we get closer to the actual start of the event, especially as higher res model data starts to be included.

A storm system moving out of the Plains has the potential to bring a variety of wintry precipitation Thursday into Friday. Most of the precipitation should fall as snow, but some rain, sleet or freezing rain may also mix it. Several inches of heavy wet snow is possible along with minor ice accumulations. There is the potential for significant lake effect snow this weekend. There is still considerable uncertainty in the exact placement of the lake effect bands and amounts, but it is possible there will be periods of heavy snow across southern Erie and Wyoming counties, as well as the western Southern Tier.

Check your pms stash.

Heading into the weekend, the air mass aloft will become cold enough (model 850mb temperatures range from -10 to -14) to support a lake response. Model guidance packages from 11/00Z, 11/12Z, and 12/00Z continue to support unidirectional vertical wind profile in the lower levels along with the cold temperatures aloft to support lake snows east/northeast of both lakes. Despite the model continuity, this event remains in the farthest reaches of the forecast and therefore the mesoscale features are yet to be well represented this far out. But as of right now, there is high potential for lake effect snow east and northeast of both lakes Erie and Ontario Saturday through Sunday.

Lock it in

Bills snow game next weekend?

In a general sense, a -AO/-NAO pattern increases the likelihood of impactful winter weather in the northeast US, but in this case it is also coupled with a -PNA pattern, which favors cold to be focused more in the Northwest US and northern Plains with seasonable warmth favored on average in the eastern US. Model guidance continues to show considerable uncertainty starting next weekend with significant run to run swings in the handling of synoptic scale details, which is to be expected in a large scale pattern such as this. This will likely continue in the coming days as model guidance attempts to distill this low predictability pattern. Any one model run should be taken with a grain of salt in this pattern.

It finally melted

Had 2 free PTO days from work. In 2014 I had a full week off paid. I love these events lol.

This event was quite widespread. The low QPF LES events usually happen early on in the year when the lakes are warm Nov/December primarily. The BUF NWS has a nice page that keeps track of LES events. I probably average a 2 footer + per year. I don't live in the snowbelt, just a southern suburb. South of here in the snowbelts average 200"+ and off the tug 300"+. I'd say almost every year we get a 3-4'+ event off Erie and off Ontario the potential is greater. https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive

my socials went nuts, over 20 million impressions between youtube and twitter, I was debating on what event I liked more between 2014 and 2022. 2014 had whiteouts like I've never seen with the higher winds and 2022 had nonstop thundersnow. They are my 1a/1b at top above every other event.

Highest I saw was 5.5” QPF

Still a few inches on the ground here. Stuff had sticking power with 5” SWE in my core sample. We had 40s and 50s for almost 2 weeks straight. Had snow on ground from Nov 16-today. I’m a snowfall rates guy so dont really care about snow depth unless it’s extreme 3’+. It snowed a few hours after this, but this was close to the max depth.

Nov Temps: BUF: +2.3 ROC: +1.9 WAT: +3.0 SYR: +4.7 BING: +3.2

LES chase last night

Another close call up in the high peaks. Becoming a far too common occurrence these days. https://dailygazette.com/2022/11/30/missing-schenectady-teen-found-freezing-in-adirondacks-dec-says/?fbclid=IwAR0XLpuEnFHmQNIhy6s4mZYGLjzScSB5sjIbC8Ibe1d6ht6-ELfpE7boZOM

Picked up an inch last night up to 79.9" on the year.

Some heavy graupel here tonight

Since I finally got over 1k subs I am able to livestream on youtube now! I did my first tonight with some intense LES off Erie. Got a good clip of some thundersnow!

Windy today with some LES setting up across southern tier and tug

Next few weeks we see a stout -NAO with the PNA eventually going neutral. This results in the colder air out west slowly moving eastward over time. Not a terrible look starting around Dec 6th-7th. We will have chances of snow from around that date and onward for most of December.