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About U_Thant

  • Birthday 11/22/1963

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
  • Gender
  • Location:
    West Melbourne, FL
  • Interests
    Beach stuff, softball, weightlifting, motorcycling, Texas Holdem
  1. 14/8/5 added to the 2/1/0 already in place.... June 1/0/0 July 1/1/0 August 3/2/1 September 5/3/3 October 3/1/1 November 1/1/0
  2. U_Thant

    February Mid/long Range Winter Discussion

    Snow schmow. The setup looks pretty tasty for some more hoses across peninsular FL.
  3. U_Thant

    Catch Phrases for Upcoming Storm Threats

    "Setup looks similar to February 1998"
  4. U_Thant

    2015-16 Winter Pattern Discussion

    The operational in me is getting stoked about the pattern finally snapping into "nino mode" for FL, after enduring two and half months of the +AO spawned heat ridge o death here. The strong ST jet looks like it should lock in down here for the duration (JAN/FEB/MAR). No surprise at all that the op models are showing their usual lack of consensus/continuity in strength and timing of features affecting to state out into the extended ranges. However, the pattern is there now - seems like just a matter of time before we're looking at some potential SVR.
  5. U_Thant

    Waterspout Meteorology

    In addition, to the paper in Turtle's link, forecasters from our office have posted several more papers on waterspouts and forecasting.. Just search for "waterspout" on this page... http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/?n=research Piggybacking on the papers provided will ultimately send you to several earlier/seminal references on the subject. Happy researching! Tony
  6. Nilofar from last year was quite strong/intense (Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm), although it eventually got trashed by shear and wound up dissipating over water.
  7. 5-day track/intensity and genesis forecasts are customer-driven. Besides, there's no way on earth you'd ever get anyone, be it a professional or an armchair forecaster, to not speculate beyond three days. As long as the proper caveats about uncertainty are given (which they are), the state of the science allows for forecasts out to 5 days.
  8. U_Thant

    2015 ENSO super thread

    Awesome! Thanks for the correction, as well as the link to the tabular v2 data.
  9. U_Thant

    2015 ENSO super thread

    I wondered the same thing myself. I estimated that the MJJ ONI tercile would be about +1.14C, based upon the actual monthly SSTA values of +0.87C (May), +0.97C (June), and a rough guess of +1.58C (July) - the latter being based upon those CPC weeklies in the chart you posted (an average of +1.4C, +1.5C, +1.7C, +1.6C, and +1.7C from 1-29 JUL). Of course, it turned out that MJJ was actually +1.02C, which means the July 3.4 SSTA value was +1.22C (+/- 0.1C). I was informed that the more recent, ERSSTv4 based values are used to calculate the monthly SSTA and tercile ONI values, while the weeklies are still based on the older ERSSTv3B dataset. v4 uses a warmer climatological SST, and thus its SSTA dataset is cooler than v3B, which uses an older, and cooler background SST state.
  10. U_Thant

    2015 ENSO super thread

    The part of me that wants to observe and work an interesting late fall thru early spring SVR season hopes that the NAO, and even moreso the AO, stay out of the ridiculously negative range. That's what completely blew up our outbreak potential during the 2009-2010 ENSO. It was persistently and historically cold to the extent that we had an unprecedented (and evening some light freezing rain) widespread sleet/snow event on January 9th. Of course, the other side of me doesn't want a repeat of 22-23 FEB 1998 or 2 NOV 1997. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/mlb/pdfs/35cdpw-bhagemeyer.pdf
  11. Seems to be growing consensus for another B/I-type slopgyre surface low to form near Florida out in the Day 8-10 time frame (4-6 JUN). The culprit is another relatively low latitude 500MB low that cuts off from the northern stream by day 5.5-7.5 (1-3 JUN) near the western or central gulf coast.
  12. Season: 9 / 4 / 2 (May: 1 / 0 / 0) June: 0 / 0 / 0 July: 1 / 0 / 0 August: 3 / 2 / 0 September: 3 / 2 / 2 October: 1 / 0 / 0 November: 0 / 0 / 0 December: 0 / 0 / 0
  13. Well, I dream of 88Ds lined up and down the eastern Bahamas (Great Abaco, Eleuthera, San Salvador, Mayaguana, and Grand Turk). But that's just the in me....
  14. U_Thant

    Florida Wet Season 2014

    A deluge of 6.41" on September 24 brought the monthly rainfall at Daytona Beach up to 17.58", and they sit at 17.72" through the 27th. Could see some more heavy rains there on the 29th-30th. Any bets on a 20" month without a TC? http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=DAB&product=CF6&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0