Welcome to American Weather

Ed Lizard

Members
  • Content count

    14,639
  • Joined

  • Last visited

About Ed Lizard

  • Rank
    Hege Fund Manager
  • Birthday March 1

Profile Information

  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Houston
  1. Long Beach had a TS landfall in the 1930s. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1939_Long_Beach_Tropical_Storm
  2. Was instability much above average. IIRC, all 4 storms, through Danny, were non-tropical in origin. (I was living in Lafayette when the MCS that became Danny came through, very frequent/vivid lightning for July) and I don't know why I think this, but does El Nino favor ST development? Maybe not, we have a 2 to 3C anomaly in 1/2, and not a hint of a non-tropical development.
  3. Borrowed from 'The Global Warmer'. I think iCyclone will not only chase Pacific Mexico this year, but farther North than usual...
  4. I wish IAH or HOU or SAT were launch sites.
  5. AKZ187-195-191-232213- /O.CON.PAAQ.TS.W.0012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ COASTAL AREAS BETWEEN AND INCLUDING NIKOLSKI ALASKA TO ATTU ALASKA 113 PM AKDT MON JUN 23 2014 ...THE TSUNAMI WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF ALASKA FROM NIKOLSKI ALASKA TO ATTU ALASKA... IF YOU ARE LOCATED IN THIS COASTAL AREA... MOVE INLAND TO HIGHER GROUND. TSUNAMI WARNINGS MEAN THAT A TSUNAMI WITH SIGNIFICANT INUNDATION IS POSSIBLE OR IS ALREADY OCCURRING. TSUNAMIS ARE A SERIES OF WAVES DANGEROUS MANY HOURS AFTER INITIAL ARRIVAL TIME. THE FIRST WAVE MAY NOT BE THE LARGEST. AT 1253 PM ALASKA DAYLIGHT TIME ON JUNE 23 AN EARTHQUAKE WITH PRELIMINARY MAGNITUDE 8.0 OCCURRED 25 MILES NORTHWEST OF AMCHITKA ALASKA. ESTIMATED TSUNAMI START TIMES FOR SELECTED SITES ARE... SHEMYA ALASKA 124 PM AKDT JUNE 23 ADAK ALASKA 134 PM AKDT JUNE 23 SAINT PAUL ALASKA 304 PM AKDT JUNE 23 THE TSUNAMI WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. REFER TO THE INTERNET SITE NTWC.ARH.NOAA.GOV FOR MORE INFORMATION. EDIT NBD outside Aleutians. WEPA42 PHEB 232121 TIBPAC TSUNAMI BULLETIN NUMBER 002 PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER/NOAA/NWS ISSUED AT 2121Z 23 JUN 2014 THIS BULLETIN APPLIES TO AREAS WITHIN AND BORDERING THE PACIFIC OCEAN AND ADJACENT SEAS...EXCEPT ALASKA...BRITISH COLUMBIA... WASHINGTON...OREGON AND CALIFORNIA. ... TSUNAMI INFORMATION BULLETIN ... THE EARTHQUAKE MAGNITUDE IS INCREASED FROM 7.1 TO 8.0 IN THIS STATEMENT. HOWEVER... THE EARTHQUAKE IS TOO DEEP TO POSE A TSUNAMI THREAT TO THE COASTAL AREAS COVERED BY THIS MESSAGE. THE U.S. NATIONAL TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER HAS ISSUED A WARNING FOR PART OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLAND NEAR THE EPICENTER. THIS BULLETIN IS FOR INFORMATION ONLY. THIS BULLETIN IS ISSUED AS ADVICE TO GOVERNMENT AGENCIES. ONLY NATIONAL AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT AGENCIES HAVE THE AUTHORITY TO MAKE DECISIONS REGARDING THE OFFICIAL STATE OF ALERT IN THEIR AREA AND ANY ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN IN RESPONSE. AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS ORIGIN TIME - 2053Z 23 JUN 2014 COORDINATES - 51.8 NORTH 178.8 EAST DEPTH - 114 KM LOCATION - RAT ISLANDS ALEUTIAN ISLANDS ALASKA MAGNITUDE - 8.0 EVALUATION NO TSUNAMI THREAT EXISTS FOR OTHER COASTAL AREAS IN THE PACIFIC ALTHOUGH SOME OTHER AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE SMALL NON-DESTRUCTIVE SEA LEVEL CHANGES LASTING UP TO SEVERAL HOURS. THIS WILL BE THE FINAL BULLETIN ISSUED FOR THIS EVENT UNLESS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.
  6. I could probably answer this myself if I knew which airports had TDWR, but there are dots corresponding to DFW and DAL, IAH and HOU, and AUS and SAT, but not SJT or CRP. Do they denote airports with TDWR? That is my initial guess...
  7. I just hope we get to the E storm. Edouard is French for Ed, and was a good storm IMBY in 2008. No idea where that NCEP probability comes from, only a couple of 12Z GEFS through 16 days had a closed 1004 mb or below low, not a single 18Z GEFS member had a 1004 mb or below tropical low, and even that whole week the GFS showed a TC developing in the Caribbean 6-8 days out, it was wrong. It was colorful but useless last season as well. The hybrid looking low East of the Carolinas in 8 days on the Euro is warm core at 850 mb, but I want to see more of that on future runs.
  8. Is that good or bad for MBY (Houston).
  9. Cute naked swirl, and SPC mesoanalysis indicates a possible very weak surface low, but 10% seems generous.
  10. Since the ATL hurricane season looks deadly dull whether or not the ENSO is moderate, strong, or the Mother of 1997, the real question is which type favors cool season rains in California, which really needs it, and Texas, which has gotten bette but still could use a wet cool season. And why wouldn't this be an Easterly based Nino?
  11. DRT has received almost 5 inches from my pet MCV, that does seem to refire at night. making me think it is some kind of warm core system. I have worked in the oil fields South of Sonora, TX, and I don't know if technically it is part of the Chihuahuan desert, but it is a desert for all practical purposes. Should help Falcon and Amistad, I imagine, to help supply Texas and Mexican farmers with abundant water for the crops...
  12. The brief tornado didn't look anything like any of these 3 large tornadoes, however.
  13. Curious feature- will the MCV in Mexico become warm core and self sustaining. I suspect the borderlands could use the rain.
  14. All I know is that they didn't seem to be rotating around a common center or each other from video I've seen, and both were cyclonic. I have seen movies of tornado pairs where one was anti-cyclonic. Not the case here. And the video I saw yesterday, you could see one was multiple vortex.
  15. I screwed up June in the contest, I figured a big El Nino season, and I was hearing 1997, I figured 3 or 4 non-tropical June and July deverlopments before the season really shut down. I should have done 0/0/0 for June, because I see no signs now of anything non-tropical getting a chance. Stupid me, assuming ENSO alone would be a good predictor. I do see a decent early season wave around 45ºW, but shear is already 20 to 30 knots and looks to get stronger to the West. On the positive side, after at least a week of almost every GFS run developing a Caribbean TC between 6 and 8 days out, it seems to be chilling on that one.