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Everything posted by wolfie09

  1. Best chance for some accumulating snow here may be early Friday morning as winds back Westerly before dissipating, both rgem and gfs show this with very light winds (5-9mph) , those light wind events can be sneaky good..I guess it's something for me to watch for, until then Gl to you fellas down there, your gonna need it lol
  2. It's comical that all night we will have a Westerly flow but not enough cold/moisture until the flow turns wnw.. Regional Canadian is the only guidance with a decent band overnight.. I thought I started to develop Matt"itis" but I'm starting to think he inherited my Wolfie"itis".. We are single handedly bringing down the annual Snowfall for the eastern Ontario region.. The 2years before I moved here Pulaski had around 10-12 double digit events, last 2 years would be lucky to have one lol 2016-2017 alone they had 4 straight double digit events with a Max of near 50".. I'm chalking it up to bad luck for now, unless it happens one more year lol Then I'm selling my house and moving to the tug.
  3. Indices still showing improvements by months end.. Definitely better than what we are seeing now lol
  4. Kbuf decided to hoist an advisory till lunchtime, guess better late than never lol
  5. Practically every SR model showed the exact same thing..
  6. NWS can only go by what guidance shows, they can't predict the future lol
  7. This is why u can't trust any models lol Especially with Precipitation amounts. Took a while to get going here, flake size was so small u would think it's 5° out lol Once we got into some of the heavier returns, flake size increased dramatically.. About an inch so far, 27°..
  8. Take a ride up North Matt!! Lol This system could drop more snow in the SE than phi-nyc has seen all winter
  9. Could be a decent event for freak/max and company come Wednesday night-thursday.. Obviously location this far out is tricky.
  10. Already 5° below the forecast minimum.. Down to 14.5° under clear skies..HRRR is pretty much all frozen/snow tomorrow, just not much in the way of precip..
  11. The epitome of this year. Low pressure able to squeeze between 2 strong HP systems lol
  12. I expect the forum to be like this until next winter unless we get a big one in March lol On a positive note, I have yet to use a full pallet of pellets It's been real fellas..
  13. Not much to talk about lol After this cutter, HP will take control for a few days before another potential cutter lol Best chance for snow is via the lake behind each cutter/CF..
  14. Forecast here is for 2"-4" early tomorrow before the flip to agua.. Possible moderate accumulations south/SE of the lake wed night-Thursday.. Wednesday night the lake snows will again intensify, especially across Lake Ontario where an upstream connection will return. A WNW flow along the long axis of the Lake, increased surface convergence and lake induced equilibrium levels rising towards 7-8K feet will bring moderate lake snows along the shoreline of Monroe...and inland across Wayne, Cayuga and southern Oswego. There are still some uncertainties to the low level wind directions, but advisory level snows will be possible south and southeast of Lake Ontario. We will highlight this potential in the HWO.
  15. Some lake effect potential behind the CF.. Cold air advection will continue Tuesday night as another cold front crosses the region, reinforcing the cold air advection, this will cause 850H temperatures to drop to the -12C to -15C range by Wednesday morning. With the cold air advection and some synoptic moisture still available, a lake response will begin downwind of the lakes. As of right now, snow looks like it should be light through Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning before additional cold air advection and an approaching trough for later Wednesday. Temperatures on Tuesday night will be in the low to mid 20s, with a few locations east of Lake Ontario in the teens. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Wednesday through Thursday a broad longwave trough will become established from the Great Lakes to New England. This will bring a few days of below normal temperatures to our region, with Thursday likely being the coldest day. General WNW flow aloft will combine with increased lake instability to produce a few rounds of lake effect snow showers east and southeast of the lakes. It remains too early for any details, although the pattern would suggest a better potential for accumulating lake snows southeast of Lake Ontario, with a lesser potential off Lake Erie. The best setup appears to be Wednesday night through Thursday morning, when an upstream connection to Lake Huron may tie into the Lake Ontario band. Lake effect snow showers will continue through Thursday night southeast of the lakes. High pressure and the onset of warm advection will then bring an end to the lake snows by Friday, with the start of a warming trend and period of dry weather that will likely continue into next weekend.
  16. Well for me here, east of Ontario it's about damage control. Two days ago it was mid 40s and Rain..Now the European has 4"-6" in a 6 hr period and then we dry out. Should hit mid-upper 30s behind the warm front for several hours before the CF comes through..
  17. I'm thinking the Canadian guidance is to cold but it's what they show lol
  18. Still looks better towards the end of the month.. AO starting to head downward.. Which I guess it has no other choice lol
  19. This system Tuesday is in and out in like 6 hrs lol Nam doesn't even have any rain.. Temps max out in the mid 30s for a few hours before the CF swings through.. I-81 east with a few inches verbatim..
  20. WRT seasonal Snowfall ksyr is doing the worst followed by kbuf.. Binghamton, Albany and Rochester are doing ok compared to average..