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wolfie09

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Everything posted by wolfie09

  1. wolfie09

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    Hurricane formation and potential track are difficult to predict 3-4 weeks in advance. Atlantic and eastern Pacific hurricanes can directly influence weather over the forecast area and any hurricane can indirectly influence the forecast area by re-curving poleward and perturbing the mid-latitude wave guide.
  2. wolfie09

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    CPC banking more on the emcwf/cfs.. Most of our model guidance predicts a time-mean amplified pattern over North America during the Week 3-4 period. Both the CFS and the ECMWF forecast an anomalous trough just south of the Aleutians, but the trough is about 100m deeper in the CFS (-120m vs -20m). The rest of the Rossby wave over North America is of similar amplitude between the models, although the ECMWF positions the wave slightly further north than the CFS. As one might expect from the height pattern, the CFS predicts colder temperatures over Alaska than the ECMWF does. Both models predict anomalous warmth over the western CONUS and near to below normal temperatures in the eastern CONUS, but the CFS positions the most anomalous cold air over the Southeast whereas the ECMWF positions it over the Great Lakes region. In-line with our calibrated model guidance along with our statistical MLR tool, our forecast favors above normal temperatures for most of the western and southern parts of the country and below normal temperatures throughout the mid-west and northern New England. Our forecast probabilities of above normal temperatures over Alaska are around 60%.
  3. wolfie09

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    First fall foliage report of the season..
  4. wolfie09

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    NWS Buffalo Lake effect archive updated to include 2018-2019..(13 events) https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2018-2019&event=A
  5. wolfie09

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    Yup, same here, just a little warmer during the day and colder at night.. Last 2 nights hit 43° with DPs in the upper 30's!!
  6. wolfie09

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    Amazon coming to CNY? Would be a nice boost to the economy creating more than a thousand new jobs in central New York.. https://www.syracuse.com/business/2019/09/distribution-center-near-liverpool-would-be-2nd-biggest-in-world-is-it-amazon.html
  7. wolfie09

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    Looks like Dorian may spare Florida and the SE coast after all..
  8. wolfie09

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    Awesome pics/video man, think I may have to do a little chasing this year lol I've heard Selkirk state park is a good spot around here, about 10 miles west, something I'll be keeping an eye on..
  9. wolfie09

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    A little bit of lake effect/enhanced showers as well as thick cloud cover.. Colder air aloft will continue to advect into the region with some minimal lake response expected east of the lakes as lake/850 mb delta ts near around 14C. Seeing isolated showers mainly over far eastern Lake Ontario and streaming into southern Jefferson, northern Oswego and Lewis counties due to lift from shortwave and lake response.
  10. wolfie09

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    Still raining to boot..
  11. wolfie09

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    3k Nam really is a terrible model ..lol
  12. wolfie09

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    Low-mid 40s overnight, felt great this morning..lol
  13. wolfie09

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    Must be nice to have some elevation lol Dropped into the 40's overnight..
  14. wolfie09

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    Where are you guys getting these numbers from?
  15. wolfie09

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    Little cool down after this front moves through on Wednesday..
  16. wolfie09

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    Neutral probabilities for the end of the month into the beginning of meteorological fall..
  17. wolfie09

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    I'm thinking All NWS offices.. https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/scn19-63hazsimp_lake_snowaaa.pdf
  18. wolfie09

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    Lake Effect Snow warnings are back. One year ago, the National Office of the National Weather Service eliminated Lake Effect Snow warnings to help simplify the alert process. Starting this snow season, the warnings are being brought back after listening to concerns from people like you. The Cleveland Office of the National Weather Service confirmed with First Warning Weather on Monday it will use the polygon system to help pinpoint areas that will be most affected by lake effect snow
  19. wolfie09

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    Warning issued.. The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Jefferson County in central New York... Cayuga County in central New York... Oswego County in central New York... * Until 300 PM EDT.. * At 150 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Oswego to near Lodi, moving east at 40 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. * Locations impacted include... Watertown, Oswego, Fulton, Sandy Island Beach State Park, Fort Drum, Stony Point, Pulaski, Clayton, Central Square and Weedsport. This includes the following highways... Interstate 90 near exit 40. Interstate 81 between exits 32 and 51.
  20. wolfie09

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    Mesoscale Discussion 1674 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CDT Thu Aug 08 2019 Areas affected...central and northern NY...north-central PA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 081558Z - 081730Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...The potential for strong to locally severe gusts (45-60mph) will probably increase through midday and into the early afternoon as a squall line moves from western into central and northern NY. DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a squall line over western NY as of 1150am EDT. The 7am Buffalo raob showed meager buoyancy and relatively weak westerly flow from just above the surface through 300mb. Surface heating has occurred this morning with temperatures on the NY Mesonet rising into the upper 70 to lower 80s degrees F immediately east of the squall line. KIAG measured a 40kt gust at 1039am. The NY Mesonet has up until recently only observed 33mph at 3 sites thus far. However, the NY Mesonet Batavia site very recently observed a measured gust of 47mph. RAP forecast soundings show several hundred J/kg MLCAPE developing by early afternoon across central NY. As the mid-level shortwave trough over Ontario and the lower Great Lakes progresses eastward, storm intensity is forecast to increase aided in part by the associated forcing for ascent and diurnal destabilization. Isolated wind damage owing to gusts ranging from 45-55mph (locally up to 60mph) is possible.
  21. wolfie09

    Upstate/Eastern New York

    About 1.6" of liquid over the last 2 days, looks like more potential heavy rain this afternoon/evening..
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