For the long term period, it will be warm, but continue to be
active. Day to day warming is expected from Tuesday through Thursday
as a ridge tracks across the region. There is still some timing
difference between model guidance for the ridge crossing the region,
followed by the next trough with cooler temps. Max temperatures on
Tuesday will be in the low 60s to near 70 for areas south of Lake
Ontario, and in the mid 50s to near 60 for areas east of Lake
Ontario. Max temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday will be in the
upper 60s to mid 70s south of Lake Ontario, and in the low to mid
60s east of Lake Ontario; temperatures for Thursday will be a few
degrees warmer than Wednesday, but within the range described above.
Timing will be important with the temperatures, as guidance is still
spread with a frontal passage on Thursday. With a slower solution,
delaying the cold front, temperatures will need to be bumped up for
Thursday.
Precipitation wise, Tuesday should be mostly dry. A warm front
associated with an area of low pressure will track northeast across
the region early Wednesday. This will start a more active period
during the long term. Shower potential will increase with the
frontal passage and then continue with the western & north central
NY region in the warm sector of an area of low pressure over the
upper Midwest on Wednesday. The sfc low will start to occlude and
track slowly northeast across the northern Great Lakes and into
Canada later in the week (still some timing issues with this as
well). Within the warm sector, over the region from Wednesday
evening through Thursday afternoon, shower potential will continue,
with some thunderstorms also possible at times. Shower potential
will increase drastically with the frontal passage across the area.
As mentioned above, timing for this frontal passage ranges from the
Thursday afternoon through late Friday morning, so fine tuning the
forecast for these time periods will be necessary over the coming
days. But overall, the active weather we have had, will continue