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Everything posted by wolfie09
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Upstate/Eastern New York-Springtime?
wolfie09 replied to BuffaloWeather's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Sizzle will probably hit 90° on Thursday lol In all seriousness looks like a warm day.. -
Upstate/Eastern New York-Springtime?
wolfie09 replied to BuffaloWeather's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Yeah, Schuylkill county.. Seems like a potential fatality UPDATE: Multi-vehicle crash on I-81 in Schuylkill County: Coroner called to scene. https://www.google.com/amp/s/local21news.com/amp/news/local/snow-squall-cause-of-multi-vehicle-crash-on-i-81-in-schuylkill-county -
Upstate/Eastern New York-Springtime?
wolfie09 replied to BuffaloWeather's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Man this is terrifying, seeing a lot of accidents due to the squalls.. -
Upstate NY Banter and General Discussion..
wolfie09 replied to wolfie09's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
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Upstate NY Banter and General Discussion..
wolfie09 replied to wolfie09's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Some of the memes are legendary lol -
Upstate NY Banter and General Discussion..
wolfie09 replied to wolfie09's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Tarheels baby! First ever tournament meeting between UNC and Duke.. This has been a great tournament so far, lots of upsets lol -
Upstate/Eastern New York-Springtime?
wolfie09 replied to BuffaloWeather's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Probably the heaviest snow of the day so far, which is not saying much lol Down to 23°.. -
Upstate/Eastern New York-Springtime?
wolfie09 replied to BuffaloWeather's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
I think it's more due to the NWS expectations lol Forecast is still for some snow this evening SE of the lake.. They continue to update event total which started yesterday at 5 pm through tomorrow AM.. -
Upstate/Eastern New York-Springtime?
wolfie09 replied to BuffaloWeather's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
The flow is out of the NW..We get that wind direction a lot in the winter, obviously..I feel like"majority" of big events (feet) happen east of the lake but you probably see more consistent snow SE of the lake with the constant northerly flows..They obviously have some elevation as well.. The tug can upslope from various wind direction which is why they have it made lol -
Upstate/Eastern New York-Springtime?
wolfie09 replied to BuffaloWeather's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Might as well get another bust in before the season ends.. -
Upstate/Eastern New York-Springtime?
wolfie09 replied to BuffaloWeather's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Shocker -
Upstate/Eastern New York-Springtime?
wolfie09 replied to BuffaloWeather's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Rgem has a little bit of a different look compared to previous runs.. Clearly the NWS is humping it lol -
Upstate NY Banter and General Discussion..
wolfie09 replied to wolfie09's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
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Upstate/Eastern New York-Springtime?
wolfie09 replied to BuffaloWeather's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Don't sleep on my 3% -
Upstate/Eastern New York-Springtime?
wolfie09 replied to BuffaloWeather's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Sunday night the deeper moisture and better synoptic scale support will move into New England, but northwest flow of very cold air, with 850MB temps dropping to around -20C (which would be as cold as has been observed this late in the season per SPC sounding climatology), will support ongoing areas of lake effect snow showers southeast of the lakes. Since all lake convective layer will be in the DGZ, the snow showers could be quite efficient with SLRs topping 20:1. Gusty northwest winds will lead to blowing and drifting snow so have added this into the forecast closer to the lakes. Snow showers wane on Monday with diurnal disruption, but could flare up again on Monday night near the lakes as another weaker wave moves through with increased moisture above H85 and still more than sufficient over-water instability. As far as accumulations go, the heaviest snow is still expected from the Chautauqua Ridge to the Boston Hills and ridges of Wyoming County east of Lake Erie, and across the Tug Hill Plateau east of Lake Ontario. Totals may reach 8-12" over 48 hours in these areas. Elsewhere expect a few inches of accumulation. Went back and forth about issuing a watch, but in the end settled on the idea that this will be long drawn out advisory event. Isolated warning amounts certainly could occur, but most of the higher terrain areas alluded are expected to remain less than the 7"/12hr or 9"/24hr threshold. Bulk of heaviest accumulating snow will also be occurring during the overnight hours on the weekend, lessening the impact. Will let later shifts set up headlines as needed since most of snow from this evening will not occur until Saturday night onward. WPC probabilities -
Upstate/Eastern New York-Springtime?
wolfie09 replied to BuffaloWeather's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Kbuf increased totals somewhat..I'd imagine by morning some advisories will be issued.. -
Upstate/Eastern New York-Springtime?
wolfie09 replied to BuffaloWeather's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Buffalo Saturday night and Sunday the axis of the mid level trough moves to the east coast, with a surface low consolidating over eastern Quebec and the Canadian Maritimes. Deep wrap around moisture will rotate into the eastern Great Lakes Saturday night through Sunday, while unseasonably cold air pours into the Great Lakes. The synoptic scale forcing and moisture will support periods of light snow and snow showers Saturday night and Sunday. Meanwhile, favorable WNW flow in the boundary layer will support upslope enhancement across the higher terrain east/southeast of Lake Erie and across the Tug Hill Plateau. The airmass will grow plenty cold enough for lake enhancement as well, with lake induced equilibrium levels rising to over 5K feet by Sunday. The combination of lake enhancement and upslope flow will support more persistent and somewhat heavier snow across the higher terrain east of the lakes. This would peak Saturday night east of Lake Erie, and late Saturday night and Sunday east of Lake Ontario. Sunday night the deeper moisture and better synoptic scale support will move into New England, but northwest flow of very cold air, with 850MB temps dropping to around -20C, will support ongoing areas of lake effect snow showers southeast of the lakes. As far as accumulations go, the heaviest snow will focus from the Chautauqua Ridge to the Boston Hills and ridges of Wyoming County east of Lake Erie, and across the Tug Hill Plateau east of Lake Ontario. Totals may reach 6-10" over 48 hours in these areas. Elsewhere expect a few inches of accumulation. The snow will add up over time across the higher terrain, but chances of legitimate watch/warning criteria snow (7" in 12 hours or 9" in 24 hours) is low but non-zero. -
Upstate/Eastern New York-Springtime?
wolfie09 replied to BuffaloWeather's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Binghamton Another shortwave and cold front moves in from the northwest Saturday night into early Sunday morning. This will bring rain/snow showers Saturday evening, changing to all snow showers by late Saturday night/early Sunday morning. Lake effect snow showers will follow this shortwave with a northwesterly flow and 850mb temperatures falling from around -10C Sunday morning to around -20C Monday morning. These lake effect snow showers may start with an organized multi-banded structure, but as is typical for this time of the year with the strong late March sun angle, these snow showers may turn more cellular/convective in nature by Sunday afternoon, therefore limiting the potential for a prolonged period of lake effect snow in any one particular location. Instead, snow showers will likely be frequent, but brief by midday Sunday, with brief periods of sun possible in between. With the cold airmass moving in, highs on Sunday will only be in the 30s to near 40. -
Upstate/Eastern New York-Springtime?
wolfie09 replied to BuffaloWeather's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Latest map from the NWS.. -
Upstate/Eastern New York-Springtime?
wolfie09 replied to BuffaloWeather's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
3k only out to Sunday morning already has 6"-12" for some of the higher elevations, few inches here verbatim.. -
Upstate/Eastern New York-Springtime?
wolfie09 replied to BuffaloWeather's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Nam looks solid in its somewhat LR..If half this accumulated I'd be happy.. -
Upstate/Eastern New York-Springtime?
wolfie09 replied to BuffaloWeather's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Hopefully we see the high end. Lol -
Upstate/Eastern New York-Springtime?
wolfie09 replied to BuffaloWeather's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Euro has 850mb anomalies between -17c to -19c below average Monday morning.. -
Upstate/Eastern New York-Springtime?
wolfie09 replied to BuffaloWeather's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Saturday night into Sunday, cooling will continue as winds shift northwest between high over northern Plains and low pressure off New England. H85 temps will drop steadily with readings centered around -15c Sunday afternoon. Given the cold air aloft with increasing open water off both lakes, expect widespread snow showers with lake enhanced snow across higher terrain east of Lake Erie and for areas southeast of Lake Ontario. Several inches of snow could result and right now it is looking like we`ll need a late season winter weather advisory for parts of the area. Eventually, expect the lake enhanced snow to transition to diurnally driven snow showers in the afternoon as the core of the coldest air aloft and associated steeper lapse rates approaches the Lower Lakes. Moving into Sunday night the cold cyclonic northwesterly flow will continue across the Lower Lakes with scattered snow showers across the region. Blended pops, including the NBM, looked way too low in this type of setup given plenty of moisture across the lower Great Lakes and sufficient over-water instability so adjusted these upward as as result. It should be one of the coldest nights of this period with lows found in the single digits east of Lake Ontario to teens elsewhere by daybreak Monday as the flow across the lakes results in at least some (relative) moderation. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The axis of a negative tilt, longwave trough will lie across the eastern Great Lakes this period, pushing an airmass that is more typical for January than late March across our region. Model 850 hPa temperatures at 12Z Monday are near or even colder than the coldest 850 hPa temperature sampled by KBUF balloon radiosonde for the date...or even the late March 850 hPa average minimum temperature. Thus will expect mid-January type weather with lake effect snow down wind of the lakes on a northwest wind quickly becoming cellular and diminishing with the higher March sun angle through the day. Temperatures will be cold, with highs only in the 20s. Monday night a clearing sky and for some a fresh snowpack will allow for a cooling airmass to drop down into the single digits inland to teens near the Lakes. A few spots across the Tug Hill may even drop below zero Fahrenheit. -
Upstate/Eastern New York-Springtime?
wolfie09 replied to BuffaloWeather's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
GFS has been fairly consistent bringing another trough through in the first week of April..It wouldn't equate to much wintry but it would keep us on the cooler side with upper 30s/lower40s type weather.. Actually the GFS doesn't really have many warm days, one here or there lol