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Bigbald

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    Kmrx

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  1. 12z gfs is a cutter parade until hr 320, ya know, the sweet spot of all modeling, which blanks west tn but hammers the east. Of course this will be gone by 18z.
  2. Not a great run for anyone except far Northern New england.
  3. The track looked pretty similiar to me aside from the fact it gets more amped earlier, the ramifications which seems to expand the precip shield and change the track more inland for the folks in the middle Atlantic. I can't get myself excited here but I'll watch it all the way like everyone else.
  4. That, and the fact that all 3 models jumped on that one 12z run from friday. I kind of wondered if models were latching on to the big dog that sometimes happens far out.
  5. Two thing I say to myself every saturday: 1) how is will wade still coaching after the fbi tapes? 2) how is Bruce Pearl still coaching aftrr the Chuck Persons scandal?
  6. Yeah this 12z gfs run is going to be a beaut and front loaded (under 250 hrs).
  7. What an awful 12z suite for friday/Saturday ha. At least we were never really in the game to be too invested in this system. Some of the model runs showing the precipitation shield blossoming west always looked funny to me anyways. Will still watch but I guess we are in punt territory.
  8. Do we need that front to either move through quicker, or hang up more? I noticed in some of model runs from the last 4-5 days ago that when the front was originally pushing through it allowed a better track. Further watching would show it sometimes getting "entangled" with the frontal passage but well to our SE and getting pulled that direction?
  9. Nam 12k and 3k try and keep the NW flow stuff around for upper East tn/swva until Tuesday at 2ish. Roan mtn must be a total mess!
  10. Bob Chill had a good synopsis in the MA forum as to why they could fail in a seemingly perfect pattern because of how progressive the flow is. I believe it could apply to us as well or anyone a little further inland.
  11. Starting to get run to run consistency with the cold that follows, boy it turns cold and stays cold again on the CMC and GFS.
  12. Per what model run? What deterministic measure are you using?
  13. 6z gfs suppresses most the storm action but my god it's cold. Ktri basically stays below freezing from around hr 110 till near the 384 hr mark.
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