mahk_webstah

Given the breath and depth of the snowpack here it would really take a pattern change in the pacific. I would think in order for us to get warm. No signs of that that I’ve seen and I think the Weekley’s keep us cold straight through February. The storm chances will come.

Seems there will be some energy coming into the center of the country and heading east around February 4. Not sure how this evolves once it gets from the Midwest towards us. I would think that the coastal threats might be over for a couple of weeks, but they aren’t our bread and butter, anyhow

If we back? Is we? Good, cuz I wants ta know. thank you Glozelle for these inspiring questions which I know we all have. We have been Uber-focused on our big regionwide storm, which we all knew would come to Papa, and the latest threat, which is mostly dead to some of us, but very alive for others. But we have other business to do in this first couple of weeks of February. A storm in the February 4-7 period? SSW late month? Welcome to Climo primetime people! Let’s get to it.

it wants to come north.

50/50 it’s pretty good when it comes to intense coastal storms. But are you becoming one of these AI tech icons? Don’t forget the rest of us back here in the real world where people live not robots.

We don’t have a February thread and we probably should. There are I’m sure other dates of interest for early February. I can start it but it’s not like I have any meteorological knowledge to add. But I’ll do it.

Not for you

It is pretty clear for me after the overnight runs that we are not in the game up here. I still think though, because this will get northerly component and not just slide east that the eastern parts particularly of southern New England are still going to have a decent snowstorm and I think it’ll trend in that direction. Best I can hope for us maybe 2 to 4 inches if lucky. Bummer because it’s fun to get back to back big storms, but it’ll probably snow again in the next 10 days.

I think that is good advice. I like the WPC because they don’t change their view in a haphazard way. I think eastern areas should still have a good sense of optimism. If we can get a little bit of a tick to the west or at least not lose any ground between now and Wednesday then, as you said the early Thursday model runs, will probably tell the tale.

The WPC updated 3 to 7 day discussion and QPF and winter weather maps should keep some level of optimism in here particularly for eastern areas. What they are saying is that a strong storm is going to four and it’s going to come up the coast it’s just a matter of how close. Certainly it could say more out to see, but it is not at all uncommon for those things especially when they’re strong to just move a little closer and have expansive precipitation fields. A few inches to refresh would be very nice if it’s like if that’s all it is.

That’s why I still have some optimism. It wants to come north, and it wouldn’t be so surprising to see a trend West and into the Gulf of Maine.

This hasn’t blurred to nothing. Look at the ensembles. The other thing is that this seems to want to come north the question is how far off the coast is it when it comes north. Check out the WPC depiction, which brings the storm north just outside of the Gulf of Maine. So if the track of this whole thing from off of the Carolinas just adjusts 100 miles west, and if it strengthens, it may curl back a bit as it gets further north. I kind of feel optimistic about this, although I hesitate to say that.

That tracks well with what I saw. We definitely got 6-7 inches yesterday. What a great day of snow.

On this past storm, there were a couple of runs 10 days out or so, maybe the GFS, that had this weekend storm slamming us. Then for a couple days, the models took everything south south south. Then the move north. What I’m saying is I find it’s not uncommon when there’s a big storm shown in the 7 to 10 day window that sort of disappears, it sometimes comes back. Especially with the coastal storm where the set up is a bit more delicate in terms of small things having big impacts. I would say the late night model runs tonight will give us a general direction.