mahk_webstah

This makes a lot of logical sense to me. Even though I don’t have any expertise, you’ve explained it in a way that makes intuitive sense. If I had to pick the AI versus traditional models at this point, I would choose the traditional models.

How do you have any steam left?

Unlikely. It might cut the heart though.

Today is Wednesday and the storm is Sunday Monday right? So if we step back from the extremes and the overreactions to one run, then isn’t the modeling telling us that this set up has high ceiling potential. And it’s trending slowly better across the suite of models. That just means that the chance a significant snowstorm for at least some of us is increasing a bit.

Breathe

The GFS led on first storm of the season and it took the euro a while to catch up

The fact that this comes back onto modeling is not a big surprise as that happens a lot over the years. The fact that it’s the GFS that had it originally and then totally lost it and is now bringing it back as a blizzard, which says to me that there’s a more than 50% chance that this will be a storm of some significance. Definitely the biggest euro run of the last few days.

weather weenie is sometimes a literal phrase.

Could be a situation where something big shows up on models, then gets iffy, then slowly comes back. Happens a lot.

I was in Philly for that. It was miserable. And I came home to an ugly old snow pack. The good news is,It will snow more and I don’t have to experience of watching that team play. They weren’t fun this year.

I tend to get excited pretty easily about these things, but I’m having no excitement about one 18Z model run

Absolutely I understand that. I just think in general, and I’m not talking about you because you are probably the most grounded person in here, we tend to live in the future.

But as you know, the next 7 to 9 days haven’t played out yet

Although WPC still has some risk of storm 18-19th

Except for a bit of rain and snow midweek, all precipitation gone from 10 day. Pretty much the worst case scenario from where this looked to be headed. Quite a surprise to me tbh. Cold and dry sucks. Much prefer cutter to wipe it clean and be warmer outside. otoh this will probably change but seems like quite a fail for mid range models. Or maybe just a perceptual bias based on large number of models and frequency of model runs?