donsutherland1

Final January Anomalies:

Winter rankings for New York City (through February 28th):

February is concluding with a mean temperature of 35.1° (0.8° below normal) in New York City. Winter 2024-2025 will finish with a seasonal mean temperature of 34.8° (1.4° below normal). Winter 2024-2025 is the coldest winter since Winter 2014-2015 when the seasonal average temperature was 31.7°. The very mild weather will prevail into the first day of March before a brief shot of much colder air arrives for Sunday and Monday. Sunday and Monday will see temperatures top out in the lower and middle 30s in New York City. Temperatures will rebound quickly starting Tuesday. No meaningful threats for a moderate or larger snowfall in the New York City area are likely through at least the the first week of March. A strong PNA ridge is currently in place. Historical experience suggests that the presence of such a ridge during the second half of February has been followed by the absence of major snowfalls in the New York City area. The PNA reached +1.500 on February 19th and remained at or above +1.500 through February 23rd. In all 12 years that saw the PNA reach +1.500 or above on February 15 or later since 1950, the remainder of winter saw no 10" or greater snowstorms. If historic experience holds true yet again, that would make the Winter 2024-2025 the fourth consecutive winter without a 10" or above snowstorm in New York City. The last time that happened was during Winter 2016-2017 through Winter 2019-2020. Most of the 12 winters cited above went on to see some additional measurable snowfall with a few seeing a 6"+ storm. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around February 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.03°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C. La Niña conditions have peaked and are beginning to fade. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of spring. The SOI was +0.24 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.315 today.

During Winter 2024-2025, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) had a preliminary average of -0.374. The AO was negative on 53% of days and at or below -1.000 on 34% of days. The AO was positive on 47% of days and at or above +1.000 on 24% of days. In terms of extreme values, the AO was at -3.000 or below on 12% of days and at or above +3.000 on 3% of days. The lowest AO value of -5.257 (preliminary) was reached on February 15th. The highest AO value of +3.439 was reached on January 24th.

March DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 2.0 1.4 1.4 3.6 2.0 3.2 2.4 1.0 -0.3

Today's firing of NWS and NOAA personnel is about as appalling a development as can be. In A.G. Riddle’s The Long Winter Trilogy, humanity faces an unfeeling force of destruction—the Harvester. This alien machine does not negotiate, does not pause, and does not care. It exists solely to extract energy from stars, including our Sun, draining it relentlessly while life on Earth shivers and fades into darkness. The Harvester does not acknowledge suffering. It does not see the devastation it leaves in its wake. It consumes, and the world dies. But this is no longer science fiction. The United States now faces its own Harvester—one not born in the emptiness of space, but in the corridors of unchecked power. In the opening days of the Trump administration, Elon Musk and his DOGE entity emerged—not through democratic process, not through congressional approval, but by executive fiat. Like the Harvester, DOGE was created for one purpose: extraction. The rhetoric of “efficiency,” “cost-saving,” and “government reform” is seductive. But beneath these noble-sounding claims lies a much darker reality. Musk and DOGE are not restructuring the federal government to improve it. They are stripping it for parts. They fire workers unlawfully, terminate vital contracts without cause, and consume vast amounts of private data. They suffocate research by cutting critical funding, impose crippling layoffs on the National Weather Service, and collude with Republican lawmakers to siphon wealth from Medicaid and public health initiatives, all to redirect that money into their own coffers via misguided tax cuts that serve no meaningful macroeconomic purpose. Musk, DOGE, and their allies are not just attacking government institutions. They are devouring the ethical foundation of democracy itself. They are dismantling the compassion that fueled the nation’s pursuit of a “more perfect Union.” They are obliterating the moderation that once guided civil discourse and policy. They are strangling the empathy that holds society together. And they are doing it by design. They do not care about the consequences. Families left jobless, children gone hungry, scientific advancements lost, and the lives put at risk don’t matter to them. Like the Harvester, they extract. They consume. Then, they will move on. Today, the courts struggle to contain the DOGE Blitzkrieg. Congressional opposition remains divided and hesitant. Corporations bow before the new order. But the people still hold power. The Harvester only wins if we surrender in silence. The dismantling of democracy is a lengthy hollowing-out before the collapse. Collapse is only made possible by the apathy of those who refuse to resist. Elie Wiesel, who bore witness to some of history’s darkest times, left us with this charge: “There may be times when we are powerless to prevent injustice, but there must never be a time when we fail to protest.” That time for protest is now.

The very mild weather will prevail into the first day of March before a brief shot of much colder air arrives for Sunday and Monday. Sunday and Monday will see temperatures top out in the lower and middle 30s in New York City. Temperatures will reebound quickly starting Tuesday. No meaningful threats for a moderate or larger snowfall in the New York City area are likely through at least the middle of the first week of March. There remain indications that a major pattern re-alignment could take place starting in the first week of March bringing an end to a persistently cold regime that has predominated through most of the winter. By mid-March, a sustained warmer than normal pattern could be in place. The pattern change will likely follow a brief but fairly sharp cold shot. A strong PNA ridge is currently in place. Historical experience suggests that the presence of such a ridge at this time of year has been followed by the absence of major snowfalls in the New York City area. The PNA reached +1.500 on February 19th and remained at or above +1.500 through February 23rd. In all 12 years that saw the PNA reach +1.500 or above on February 15 or later since 1950, the remainder of winter saw no 10" or greater snowstorms. If historic experience holds true yet again, that would make the Winter 2024-2025 the fourth consecutive winter without a 10" or above snowstorm in New York City. The last time that happened was during Winter 2016-2017 through Winter 2019-2020. Most of the 12 winters cited above went on to see some additional measurable snowfall with a few seeing a 6"+ storm. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around February 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.03°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C. La Niña conditions have peaked and are beginning to fade. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of spring. The SOI was +1.92 today. The SOI was unchanged from the previous day for the first time since June 15, 2024. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.503 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 35.0° (0.9° below normal).

That's a pretty bold paper. Right now, it's a pre-print. Peer-review hasn't been completed. If its conclusions hold up, that would a fairly big development.

And 23.7" after March 15th.

What you state contradicts the First Law of Thermodynamics. When particles pop into existence, they borrow energy from what's known as vacuum energy. They don't create energy. The First Law applies to quantum mechanics.

The very mild weather will prevail through the remainder of the month. High temperatures will top out in the lower and middle 50s tomorrow in New York City. Washington, DC will likely see highs reach the middle and upper 60s. Boston could see temperatures reach or exceed 50°. Afterward, high temperatures will cool somewhat to the middle and upper 40s to end February. A few showers are possible tomorrow and Friday. No meaningful threats for a moderate or larger snowfall in the New York City area are likely through at least the middle of the first week of March. There remain indications that a major pattern re-alignment could take place starting in the first week of March bringing an end to a persistently cold regime that has predominated through most of the winter. By mid-March, a sustained warmer than normal pattern could be in place. The pattern change will likely follow a brief but fairly sharp cold shot. A strong PNA ridge is currently in place. Historical experience suggests that the presence of such a ridge at this time of year has been followed by the absence of major snowfalls in the New York City area. The PNA reached +1.500 on February 19th and remained at or above +1.500 through February 23rd. In all 12 years that saw the PNA reach +1.500 or above on February 15 or later since 1950, the remainder of winter saw no 10" or greater snowstorms. If historic experience holds true yet again, that would make the Winter 2024-2025 the fourth consecutive winter without a 10" or above snowstorm in New York City. The last time that happened was during Winter 2016-2017 through Winter 2019-2020. Most of the 12 winters cited above went on to see some additional measurable snowfall with a few seeing a 6"+ storm. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around February 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.03°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C. La Niña conditions have peaked and are beginning to fade. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of spring. The SOI was +1.92 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.028 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 34.7° (1.2° below normal).

If NYC doesn't get 5" or more snow by November 23rd, the record will be tied and if it doesn't get 5" or more on November 24th, the record will fall.

Temperatures surged to springlike levels. High temperatures included: Atlantic City: 62° Baltimore: 66° Boston: 53° Bridgeport: 52° Islip: 55° New York City-Central Park: 57° New York City-JFK Airport: 55° New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 57° Newark: 58° Philadelphia: 59° Washington, DC: 68° The very mild weather will prevail through the remainder of the month. High temperatures will top out in the lower and middle 50s tomorrow and Thursday in New York City. Washington, DC will likely see highs reach the middle and upper 60s. Boston could see temperatures reach or exceed 50°. Afterward, high temperatures will cool somewhat to the middle and upper 40s to end February. A few showers are possible on Thursday and Friday. No meaningful threats for a moderate or larger snowfall in the New York City area are likely through at least the middle of the first week of March. There remain indications that a major pattern re-alignment could take place starting in the first week of March bringing an end to a persistently cold regime that has predominated through most of the winter. By mid-March, a sustained warmer than normal pattern could be in place. The pattern change will likely follow a brief but fairly sharp cold shot. A strong PNA ridge is currently in place. Historical experience suggests that the presence of such a ridge at this time of year has been followed by the absence of major snowfalls in the New York City area. The PNA reached +1.500 on February 19th and remained at or above +1.500 through February 23rd. In all 12 years that saw the PNA reach +1.500 or above on February 15 or later since 1950, the remainder of winter saw no 10" or greater snowstorms. If historic experience holds true yet again, that would make the Winter 2024-2025 the fourth consecutive winter without a 10" or above snowstorm in New York City. The last time that happened was during Winter 2016-2017 through Winter 2019-2020. Most of the 12 winters cited above went on to see some additional measurable snowfall with a few seeing a 6"+ storm. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around February 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.03°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C. La Niña conditions have peaked and are beginning to fade. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of spring. The SOI was +8.60 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.292 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 34.5° (1.4° below normal).

The major concern about geoengineering is its unintended effects. For example, India would not be indifferent should the monsoon “fail” and it could attribute the failure to geoengineering. Other major powers would also be sensitive to events they attribute to geoengineering and at least some might retaliate against those whom they blame.

Congratulations, NJwx85.

Mild weather will prevail through the remainder of the month. The warmth will crest from tomorrow through Thursday. High temperatures will top out in the lower and perhaps middle 50s during that time in New York City. Washington, DC will likely see highs reach the lower and middle 60s. Boston could reach or exceed 50° at least once. Afterward, high temperatures will cool somewhat to the middle and upper 40s to end February. No meaningful threats for a moderate or larger snowfall in the New York City area are likely through the remainder of February. There remain indications that a major pattern re-alignment could take place starting in the first week of March bringing an end to a persistently cold regime that has predominated through most of the winter. By mid-month, a sustained warmer than normal pattern could be in place. The pattern change will likely follow a brief but fairly sharp cold shot. A powerful PNA ridge is currently in place. Historical experience suggests that the presence of such a ridge at this time of year has been followed by the absence of major snowfalls in the New York City area. The PNA reached +1.500 on February 19th and remained at or above +1.500 through February 23rd. In all 12 years that saw the PNA reach +1.500 or above on February 15 or later since 1950, the remainder of winter saw no 10" or greater snowstorms. If historic experience holds true yet again, that would make the Winter 2024-2025 the fourth consecutive winter without a 10" or above snowstorm in New York City. The last time that happened was during Winter 2016-2017 through Winter 2019-2020. Most of the 12 winters cited above went on to see some additional measurable snowfall with a few seeing a 6"+ storm. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around February 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.03°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C. La Niña conditions have peaked and are beginning to fade. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of spring. The SOI was +11.58 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.936 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 98% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 34.2° (1.7° below normal).

That might be a final warming event. We'll see how it evolves.

Final outcomes: The ECMWF weeklies did badly with precipitation anomalies and the EPS snowfall forecast was about as bad as it could have been.

Mild weather will prevail through the remainder of the month. That will cut the once impress monthly cold anomaly in New York City, but February will still finish solidly below normal. The warmth will crest during the Tuesday through Thursday period. High temperatures will top out in the lower and perhaps middle 50s during that time in New York City. Washington, DC will likely see highs reach the lower and middle 60s. Boston could reach or exceed 50° at least once. Afterward, high temperatures will cool somewhat to the middle and upper 40s to end February. No meaningful threats for a moderate or larger snowfall in the New York City area are likely through the remainder of February. There remain indications that a major pattern re-alignment could take place starting in the first week of March bringing an end to a persistently cold regime that has predominated through most of the winter. By mid-month, a sustained warmer than normal pattern could be in place. The pattern change will likely follow a brief but fairly sharp cold shot. A powerful PNA ridge is currently in place. Historical experience suggests that the presence of such a ridge at this time of year has been followed by the absence of major snowfalls in the New York City area. The PNA reached +1.500 on February 19th and currently stands at a preliminary value of +1.648. In all 12 years that saw the PNA reach +1.500 or above on February 15 or later since 1950, the remainder of winter saw no 10" or greater snowstorms. If historic experience holds true yet again, that would make the Winter 2024-2025 the fourth consecutive winter without a 10" or above snowstorm in New York City. The last time that happened was during Winter 2016-2017 through Winter 2019-2020. Most of the 12 winters cited above went on to see some additional measurable snowfall with a few seeing a 6"+ storm. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around February 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.03°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C. La Niña conditions have peaked and are beginning to fade. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of spring. The SOI was +4.42 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.194 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 95% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 34.2° (1.7° below normal).

For perspective (noting all the comments about Winter 2024-2025's outcome), NYC will very likely finish with a seasonal mean temperature of between 34.4° and 34.8°. Here's how the winter would rank against recent winters, all winters, and the three most recent seasonal baselines.

There was at least some heavy snow in the New York City area, but the biggest snows were in New England. Heavy snow reached New York City and Boston by the early morning of February 22. The blizzard intensified in southern New England, dropping 18 inches on Hamden, Connecticut.

It's really impressive.

Yes. Reed Timmer's group.

The week ahead outlook:

The thermometer topped out at 39° today in Central Park. It will turn even milder tomorrow with the temperature reaching or exceeding 40°. This milder weather will then continue all of next week. The middle of next week could become quite mild with the mercury reaching 50° or above in New York City. Washington, DC could see highs reach 60° or above. Afterward, high temperatures will cool somewhat to the middle and upper 40s to end February. No meaningful threats for a moderate or larger snowfall in the New York City area are likely through the remainder of February. There remain indications that a major pattern re-alignment could take place starting in the first week of March bringing an end to a persistently cold regime that has predominated through most of the winter. The pattern change will likely follow a brief but fairly sharp cold shot. A powerful PNA ridge is currently in place. Historical experience suggests that the presence of such a ridge at this time of year has been followed by the absence of major snowfalls in the New York City area. The PNA reached +1.500 on February 19th and currently stands at +1.750. In all 12 years that saw the PNA reach +1.500 or above on February 15 or later since 1950, the remainder of winter saw no 10" or greater snowstorms. If historic experience holds true yet again, that would make the Winter 2024-2025 the fourth consecutive winter without a 10" or above snowstorm in New York City. The last time that happened was during Winter 2016-2017 through Winter 2019-2020. Most of the 12 winters cited above went on to see some additional measurable snowfall with a few seeing a 6"+ storm. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around February 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.03°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C. La Niña conditions have peaked and are beginning to fade. La Niña conditions will likely persist into the start of spring. The SOI was +1.30 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.502 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 93% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 33.9° (2.0° below normal).