donsutherland1

Hopefully, we can get something before the pattern changes after mid-December.

Both December 2000 and 2010 had a lot of blocking.

Unfortunately, the U.S. is quite polarized right now. Crises have become the major driver for breaking policy impasses. Otherwise, there is unusual inertia. The Millennial generation is not polarized, so as that generation gains influence, the polarization that currently hobbles American policy making should begin to recede.

The appointment of former Secretary of State John Kerry as a cabinet-level climate envoy is encouraging. He has international clout, relationships and credibility. Nevertheless, the dying climate change denial movement and the status quo interests that back it likely won't yield without putting up a big fight. Translating goals into policy will be a significant challenge, even as the issue is urgent.

FYI, Phoenix tied its record high minimum temperature with a low of 61 degrees yesterday. The record was set in 2006.

Phoenix Experiences Latest 90° Days on Record Often a great earthquake is followed by strong aftershocks that reverberate in the days and weeks that follow it. 2020 has witnessed a similar phenomenon in Phoenix following what was, by far its hottest summer on record. In this case, waves of unseasonable heat have recurred periodically deep into the autumn. Summer 2020 had a mean temperature of 96.7°, which obliterated the previous mark of 95.1° set in 2013 and tied in 2015. Summer 2020 also saw July become Phoenix's hottest month on record and then August eclipse that record. The extreme heat of summer carried over into early September when the temperature topped out at 115°on September 5 and September 4-6 saw readings of 113° or above on each day. Cooler weather returned, but Phoenix has witnessed five distinct heat episodes since then, the most recent of which produced that city's latest 90° temperatures on record: 1. Mid-September: Peak temperature: 109°, September 16-17 2. Early October: Peak temperature: 107°, October 1 (tied monthly record). October 1-5: 105° or above on each day. October 1-7: Hottest week on record in October. 3. Mid-October: Peak temperature: 102°, October 16. That brought Phoenix's total 100° days to 145, surpassing the record of 143 such days set in 1989. 4. Early November: Peak temperature 99°, November 5. That smashed the November record of 96°, which was most recently tied on November 1, 2020. November 1-5 was the warmest 5-day period on record in November. 5. Mid-November: Peak temperature: 92°, November 16-17. The previous latest 90° temperature on record occurred on November 15, 1999 when the temperature reached 90°. In addition to surpassing the record for the latest 90° temperatures on record, November 2020 tied the monthly record of 7 such days. That record was set in 1999. Table 1: 90° Days during November 2020: Table 2: November Temperature Thresholds: Table 3: Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures: Table 4: Daily Record High Minimum Temperatures:

New paper: Hurricanes are now weakening more slowly over land due to climate change. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2867-7.epdf

Phoenix Experiences its Warmest 5-Day November Period on Record Today, the temperature rose to 99° at Phoenix. That surpassed the previous November record by 3°. It also contributed to both the warmest November 1-5 on record and warmest 5-day November period on record. November 1-5 Averages: High Temperature: 95.2° (1st Warmest: old record: 92.2°, 1924) Low Temperature: 65.2° (2nd Warmest) Mean Temperature: 80.2° (1st Warmest; old record: 77.7°, 2001) Days 95° or Above: 3 (old record: 2, 1924) Since 1895, Phoenix has had just 7 November days on which the temperature reached 95° or above. Those days are: November 1, 1924: 96° November 2, 1924: 96° November 4, 2001: 95° November 3, 2009: 96° November 1, 2020: 96° November 2, 2020: 95° November 5, 2020: 99° As a result, Phoenix has now had 172 days on which the temperature has reached 95° or above during 2020. The old record was 166 days, which was set in 1989. In terms of the warmest 5-day November period on record, the average high temperature surpassed the old record of 93.0°, which was set during November 3-7, 2007. The average mean temperature eclipsed the previous mark of 78.9°, which was set during November 4-8, 2007. The previous latest 5-day period with an average high temperature of 95.0° or above was October 26-30, 2016 when the average high temperature was 95.6°. The previous latest 5-day period with an average temperature of 80.0° or above was October 29-November 2, 1988 when the temperature averaged 80.1°. Table 1: Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures: Table 2: Daily Record High Minimum Temperatures:

A Very Warm October Concludes in Phoenix Today, the temperature rose to 86° at Phoenix. That concluded an abnormally warm October and, by far, the warmest June-October period on record in Phoenix. October Averages: Mean Temperature: 80.9° (4th warmest) High Temperature: 95.0° (3rd warmest) Low Temperature: 66.8° (14th warmest) Days 100° or Above: 12 (2nd most) Days 105° or Above: 5 (old record: 2, 1980) June-October Averages: Mean Temperature: 92.5° (Old record: 91.5°, 2003) High Temperature: 104.9° (Old record: 103.0°, 2003) Low Temperature: 80.1° (Old record: Tie 80.0°, 2003 and 2015) As a result of October's 12 100° or above days, 2020 set a new record of 145 such days. The old record was 143 days, which was set in 1989. Table 1: Most 100° or Above Days during a Calendar Year Table 2: 30-Year Moving Average of 100° or Above Days Table 3: Progression of the Records for 100°+, 105°+, 110°+, and 115°+ Days Table 4: 100° or Above Temperatures that Tied or Set Daily Records:

With 4.2” snow at Albuquerque, October 2020 is that city’s snowiest October on record. The previous snowiest October was 1986 when 3.2” snow was measured.

New paper on the impact of declining ice, including Arctic sea ice: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-18934-3

That seems to be the emerging consensus. China has committed to 2060. The U.S. currently has not committed to any year, but that should change next year.

This is what a fundamentally corrupt Administration looks like. The New York Times reported: The Trump administration has recently removed the chief scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the nation’s premier scientific agency, installed new political staff who have questioned accepted facts about climate change and imposed stricter controls on communications at the agency. The moves threaten to stifle a major source of objective United States government information about climate change that underpins federal rules on greenhouse gas emissions and offer an indication of the direction the agency will take if President Trump wins re-election. An early sign of the shift came last month, when Erik Noble, a former White House policy adviser who had just been appointed NOAA’s chief of staff, removed Craig McLean, the agency’s acting chief scientist. Mr. McLean had sent some of the new political appointees a message that asked them to acknowledge the agency’s scientific integrity policy, which prohibits manipulating research or presenting ideologically driven findings. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/27/climate/trump-election-climate-noaa.html

CNN reported: Japan's Prime Minister, Yoshihide Suga, said the country will aim to become carbon neutral by 2050. In his first policy speech since taking office last month, Suga told Japan's parliament Monday that his "administration will put the maximum effort to realize the green society by setting a virtuous cycle in the economy and the environment." https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/26/asia/japan-emissions-target-2050-scli-intl/index.html While a shrinking number of "hold outs" is resisting even modest moves toward decarbonization, international leaders are beginning to act on the science. The scientific debate has long ended. Now, the political debate is ending. U.S. Presidential candidate Joe Biden has called for carbon neutrality by 2050. Japan has adopted the same goal. New Zealand has committed to achieving carbon neutrality by 2050. The European Union has also committed to this goal. These developments suggest that the basis for a formal multilateral agreement that would be aimed at achieving carbon neutrality by 2050 now exists. Such an agreement could be a successor agreement to the Paris Climate Agreement, which was adopted in 2016.

The status quo approach poses a substantial risk of extinction and reduction of biodiversity. Treating it as an immutable constant by virtue of its being the existing approach is far more hazardous to nature than working on alternatives and improving alternatives. https://www.pnas.org/content/117/8/4211

Transition from oil: Support: 57% Oppose: 28% https://morningconsult.com/2020/10/23/post-debate-oil-gas-renewable-energy-poll/ The American public increasingly recognizes the reality of anthropogenic climate change. The arguments denying it or deflecting from human activities are increasingly rejected by the public. Now, the public is looking increasingly at policies aimed at addressing climate change and its growing adverse consequences.

Renewable energy is becoming less expensive than natural gas. https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-10-19/cheaper-renewable-power-may-drive-economic-recovery-lazard-says

Unfortunately, a large chunk of the sea level rise is already baked in so to speak.

A great quote from Jeremy Symons, former vice president for political affairs at the Environmental Defense Fund, concerning why climate change is now one of the leading topics of tonight’s Presidential debate: “It’s leaped out of the science books and into the communities where people have to deal with the deadly consequences of pretending it doesn’t exist.”

Yes, both have national security implications.

On October 19, Arctic sea ice extent reached 5 million square kilometers for the first time this season. That is the latest on record.

This response is not surprising. What’s missing is a letter or other document showing that this was supposed to be a foreign policy debate. If one wonders why no such documentation was furnished, it’s because of this as per the ground rules agreed by the Commission on Presidential Debates: All debates will be moderated by a single individual. As always, the moderators alone will select the questions, which are not known to the CPD or to the candidates. The CPD will choose the moderators, who will be announced in early September. The first and third presidential debates will be divided into six 15-minute segments. The topics for the six segments will be selected and announced by each moderator at least one week before each debate. This is the same format as was used 2012 and 2016. https://www.debates.org/2020/06/23/statement-second-presidential-debate/ Foreign policy will very likely fall under national security. However, politically inconvenient as they might be for some, COVID-19 and climate change are legitimate and important issues that should be discussed in detail.

On October 17, Arctic sea ice extent was 4.959 million square kilometers (JAXA). That further extended 2020’s record for the latest date on which Arctic sea ice extent was below 5 million square kilometers.

Once they start paying full cost for their products, they will have incentives to move toward more profitable and environmentally sound energy production. They currently possess the resources to invest in just such a transition. But so long as society covers a sizable part of their cost structure, they have no incentive to change from the status quo.

This is exactly why they should be paying full cost for their externalities. Otherwise, they are spared having to pay full cost for their product with society left to cover those costs.