Typhoon Tip

I mentioned this earlier in this thread - this is a bust day ... Classic spring-time reunion, too. This is precisely the kind of crap that happens in late Mays, where a warm front stops at the Hudson -...

Not that you asked ... but that smacks as "primal" more so than "ironic" to me - but I think I get what meant in your context there. It is probable that human beings walk along with more in the way of instincts whether the conceit of modernism and/or species-centric egoism allow us to know or perceive we do. That, and...we're 'in-the-weeds,' so we may not be inclined to think of it that way. But, "monsters in the closet" or "under the bed" ? These are in-born in the nature of human beings. Fearing the dark cave, keeps individuals from going near the dark cave, and they don't suffer the consequence bear or big cat ... although I'm not sure what to do with "bulls" in this but I guess. Anyway, so, they pass that trait on and neither do their kids... or their kid's kids...and on and so on. And there we have it. Instinct. And as children are closer to the primal mid brain ... we've gone and built bedrooms with built-in dark caves.. Ha! ..kinda funny when you think about it ...

Capitalism isn't the solution in that way, either though - The solution is, don't burn fossil fuels, period. Nothing else. If an economic system is footed on Oil, that oil cannot be burned - literally as in..set on fire. It's just that simple. If we can get to a reality where the provisions necessary to feed and cloth, and warm ... 8 billion souls and counting, takes place without burning fossil fuels - great! It doesn't matter whether the organization of society ( economic engine ) into ways and means that proficiently disseminate, is footed in oil, agrarian-base ... pixie dust, so long as whatever those means are, are not doing what we are doing to the planet [ apparently ]. You didn't ask... but, one of the fundamental flaws of the denier frame-work is: If something of uncertainty is causing a problem in a system, why does that mean one should keep doing anything before figuring out what that is? It's just laughably illogical - what's your point or goal in denial? But.. around and around we go. This denier crap is either that, illogical ( and can be caused by incapability to register the problem intellectually... ), or, is flat out immoral. In either circumstance, the denier is incapable of parsing out that question, and so there can be no winner in the debate. One side is right - the other side can't accept it. And that's it

Accept that this train of reasoning elides two critical points ( which are incontrovertible ...) ... exposure increases the probability of more infections ... the warmer weather is particularly favorable for host species responsible for the the contagious vector of the disease, which leads inexorably to more exposure. Neither of which were as problematic comparing 1831 "normalcy" of pathogenicity to today's climate, which is enhancing the latter.

I suppose a bit of quiescence is a good thing ... Sorry, but folks'll have to wait it out if they're dystopian-dopamine circuitry has become reliant upon the daily suggestion and/or specters of the modeling. It's fascinating how those 'tools,' no different really than hammers and ratchets weighting down a tool chest, are used as cinema to trigger that. Which, let's face it... it's an aberrent behavior that's an emergent process of the Internet's transformative power of Humanity; probably in some ways one can logically analog and or outright couch it in with this iPhone/Android tech-related addiction stuff recently covered by 60-Mintues. Fascinating topic about the e-zombieism of it. Anyway, there's a geo-political storm going on both home and abroad like we have not seen ... probably since the Berlin Wall was toppled - it's almost equal in magnitude ( but more apropos, this is another Nixon thing). In fact, much of what we are going through has roots to that fateful event. Putin was internal intelligentcia in that era, and after the Soviet collapse... it is documented that his hatred and ultimately, 'blame,' has no bounds of sense of either righteousness, or the vengeance that grows from those soils. It'll be fascinating reading for 3034 ...long after WWIII's dust has settled and safe zones from escaping the nuclear fallout have begun to finally stabilize anew. Anyway, this series of runs overnight is about as uninspired seasonality as the Terran atmosphere is capable of nailing down for early October. Once we rid the continent of this immediate warm dome that the atmosphere threw least excuse imagined at for the sole intent of preventing warm air from getting east of the Hudson' ... the recent runs are offering days that are a completely normal, transitory apple picking weather. Boring really is the best word for it. I suppose it is a good thing that is the case, because now would not be a good time for Yellowstone to unlid its self with all this Global-duress going on ... to mention, the climate storm - that's not going away in the fairest of times.

I mentioned earlier in this thread ..even threw up a chart to demo, just how spring-like this is. It still is... That looks like an early May warm intrusion attempt where the models fail to ignite the overrunning convection that cuts southeast and basically erodes the heat back and busts the models too warm .. Late April thru early June of the like - Plus, the rad motion is plumb SE...It's not E ...which means the mid level steering isn't in any hurry to move the warm front thru - that's either an emerged permutation/correction that the models wouldn't have seen coming, or the models were just bad. In any case, we are not heading for 80 F with plumes of overrunning gunk shearing off warm intrusion in the low levels. It's not like late May, when the sun sets after 8 pm so we have lots of solar time to make up for it, either. But we'll see... if the warm front some how does get east of that axis of showery rains -

I'm not convinced that doesn't evolve into one of those EC pipe line flows from the Bahamas ... which might mean less 'sou-easting' and more just straight up 73/71 training tropical downpours. It's getting late in the year for that sort of set up ...tru

You grouse sarcasm ...but heh, it's true. And, glad I'm not the only one noticing around here this cold 'landfill' that seems to be this region of the hemisphere. I've opined and demo'ed stats on this, going back to 2000, 2/3rd ( ~) of the months, we are cooler relative to surrounding. So not all the time...no, but if/when our continent is above normal ( which let's face it ... the majority of months it has been that way ) the majority of those months we are somehow someway colder then that average. But we are above normal - it's like hiding crime. haha But...it suits this particular concentration of enthusiasts just fine and smugly, because despite all protestations and or claim to the opposite, they have a nostalgic/emotional dependency to cold climate events in here - actually to the extent of bi-polar upper mood swings at the very sight of snow storms on models, and it gets unbearable at this time of year when you can sense their gaeity switches turning on just because it's 45, cloudy with light rain ... as if they are somehow closer to their weird cryo neurosis ... ' at least it's a moral victor' How's that for sarcasm

why exactly ?

Maybe ... I'm not sure how well the model performance is for those specific facet regions/ways in which these cyclones formulate - so if they are latching onto anything now, I'm not an authority on anything. I just know the climate regions. I mean ... a front meandering down there and book-ending a low that starts going out of control is bit different causally/physically in the models than a CV wave kiting westward along the 15th parallel ... couple K east of the Windwards. Different atmospheric kinematics. I will say, ...I was singularly impressed with the handling of Lorenzo in the models... particularly the Euro! It flagged that thing closing off and deepening smartly some six days prior to it emerging off the coast of Sierra Leone. No problem - nailed it. Actually the other guidance latched on early too... just happen to notice the Euro first so not sure who/what really gets the trophy. But this has been true in recent seasons... We're probably ... oh somewhere in the 50% success for spin-rate vs phantoms ...compared to back in the 1990s - you didn't dare enter a cumulus cloud into the modeling grids or you'd wipe islands off the face of the Earth. Seems the models have improved overall with genesis points... That said, yeah...I've been noticing a tendency for cyclonic curvature between the Gulf and Bermuda.. I'm also noticing - as I discussed elsewhere - this propensity for over-top high pressure to spread ESE from Canada through NE and the lower Maritimes.. That preponderant activity is putting enhanced baroclinicity and enhanced easterly trades in general into that same region. These are not altogether bad omens for development prospect so maybe keep and eye on things.

"September remember; October all-over" ... it was in a folklore reference in the "American Weather Almanac" This is the Opal time of year. Home growns, as it were... Things to watch for are 'book-end' lows... That's when fronts meander vestigial signatures of convergence into the Gulf latitudes and off the SE U.S. coast ... These regions can fester and close off circulations..probably somewhat hybrid at first when weak, but then their cores go purer soon after. Altho, Opal's a bad example. It's origin might have been a tropical wave in the Caribbean ..or perhaps some ejected perturbation off N. S/A...

Yeeeah... if you'll indulge me for a moment ...that (bold) is the "bargainers" saying that. There are those still in the earlier denial phase - if one accepts the 'post-mortem stages of recovery' metaphor to describe this climate change reticence. I mean... it's still using historical facts to try and justify an inaction going forward - which is technically in the denial..but is also engaging the debate now, which is why it is bargaining. Otherwise, it would be just denial with raised hands. It's a step in the right direction. There's all that... but there's also some poor erudition in diplomacy back-draft consequence from those early years of Neolithic incompetence/bombasting the impending doom ... That's a separate sort of issue that is spanning mutliple generations ... which means it now has a cultural "virtual institutional" root ... great! That makes it harder. It goes something like this, ' ...It's gotta be bullshit because it was bullshit in my parent's time and they're now 80 years old and doing fine.' Also, look harder - there are reams of papers out there that use coring samples and other forensic sciences, to then break matters down to molecular chemistry ... in the areas of/for paleoclimate and palegeology advancing studies .. I mean come on

Right - 'disarray' is the new thing.. ... The paradigm has changes men and women, and that new model is uncertainty. The following is op ed: This particular emerging aspect of GW is rendering the old reliances more invalid. All seasonal ( btw, separate topic, but one that annoys me...) outlooks are a fool's endeavor if one ignores the neutering-of-ENSO-idea-out of hand. And no, it is not 'entirely' neutered, just that it's efficacy is reducing in present era going forward. I've already seen a bevy winter outlooks applying that same old mantra/modis operendi ... Isaac Asimov'ing these fantastically well-written ...but ultimately pointless ENSO -reliant seasonal outlooks. Unless that f'er is some kinda deep tissue (+) or (-) 3 SDs... it ain't doin' shit. There will be times when aspects [ coincidentally ] look more so ( and we'll field pride-posts and publications taking credit ) or less ( and we'll field "no one got it right" ), in either case, like it is supposed to have behaved otherwise? This really got started back in the super Nino, this awakening to the lowering effectiveness of the relative ENSO states. That El Nino event was historic in proportion - the effects/affects as noted and papered in the years since have described a disproportionately tame impact from that beast. And last year's more modest yet noted warm anomalies ... waited unusually late to register in the atmosphere, but impact meaning also secondarily was reduced.

Mm .. you know, it's not a bad way to look at that Scott - and I agree firstly; there's definitely an air ( puns are free of charge btw ) of cool ENSO bias to these appeals ... subtle at times, more coherent at others where that's like a base-line pattern. That, despite the ENSO being neutral mild? This hearkens to recent papers regarding the Hadely Cell expansion ( probably getting to be a broken record from me, I know...but unfortunately, it's true ). Last year, it took very late into the winter before the atmosphere even began to exhibit it was even responding to the on-going, low-amplitude warn ENSO of the time - and this was noted through out the early to mid winter weekly publications by NCEP. In fact, the turn of phrase in that sentence I just wrote may even be paraphrasing one I once read ( now that I think back). This "delay" response thing ... it's because the "gradient triggers" are moving relative to historical precedence ( I believe ..); such that modest ENSO warm(cool) regimes may not be as important to the pattern in winter, because the coupled state of the ocean-atmosphere is changing the forcing as it terminates through the R-wave distribution at mid latitudes... blah blah-blah give a pistol head, I know. Anyway, I wonder if that NINA-esque thing might actually be sort of what happens when there is lowering/no input, thru gradient weakening - just a circumstance we haven't seen because up until some 15 or so years ago - prior to that approximate range there always was that input. Fascinating... This winter could be interesting. I think the -AO multi-decade stuff ( and the PDO/AMO are also correlating to -EPO/-NAO in support ) has legs. Doesn't mean it'll exert at all times of course. f* it could backseat ...just in time screw this winter, come back to haunt next summer, then wait until that next winter.. But it's lurking. The ENSO events ( in my mind ) have to layout in larger total SD in a coupled- GW atmosphere, where is causing the gradients inside the Hadely Cell latitudes to weaken by the homogenized elevation of heights It's not something that is very obvious on charts -either. We can't just go over to the D8-10 anomalies on the PSU E-Wall rendering and expect to see that circumstantially at lower latitudes around the hemisphere. It's a probably a sensi/discrete math.

Super-impose that surface layout under that H 500 ... the ridge seems it should have prevented a frontal position that far S extending midriff to intense BD structure over the Mid Atlantic. This has been an oddity playing out since April (really). It has prevented eastern U.S. from getting the European headlines going, ...keeping our departures tepid. I find that fascinating, because it is a cool surface anomaly "relative to the pattern." The pattern has looked to support above normal the majority of the way; perhaps the aforementioned relativity/bias has masked. Mid levels appear to have been warmer in total anomaly relative to the surface verification. That ridge up there would support 90+ clear to Buffalo but, these giant high pressures and or just inhibition for fronts getting N despite the mid levels is a real phenomenon in my mind. I strongly suspect one that is rooted in the -AO preponderant phase state that's also been characterizing the summer and so far autumn. I believe it has kept the westerly's/jet more active than normal, as well ..suppressed S. Confluence episodes in the means then ejecting east through the N/A quadrature create surface pressure anomalies...that in near equal measure ( spatially) cut/exert underneath these ridge-rims from the N. These features were not evidence at all times..no. Just that this tendency to ablate heat getting to the 40th parallel, in this unusual, larger spatial way in general has aided in keeping our summer temperatures down, if however concealed that truth is behind the empirical averages. I wonder if this longer termed idiosyncrasy continues deeper into the autumn - ..

It's a surface analysis that really almost should not be like that, not when considering the 500 mb layout ( using the 00z EPS initialization)

Very spring-like surface analysis this morning ...

Euro's not far from a Bahama Blue pattern there D 8.5 -10 ... In fact, it is really for about 12 hours before the N-S oriented boundary squeezes through but those heights are mighty high out there E of CC/S of NS and with the blocking TUTT near the 55th longitude, it's not a far stretch to image that front slowing down further in future runs. Predicated on the assumption that these major players are actually approximal -

mm... I think it worth exploring it a bit. It's been a topic in the past... ( I expanded on that )

"Hopefully no snow" ? LOL - Yeah... doesn't seem to portend, or end too well for winters when snow in October seems to mean "all-over" before it even begins, ha. Oh, we're supposed to know it doesn't mean anything. We're just being paranoid as winter enthusiasts. And as others string together statistics to show us all why ( 'don't worry; doesn't mean nothing') existentially it desperately seems to mean the winter is doomed, regardless. I think it is possible that the years it snowed in October that didn't proceed into a subjectively good winter, might just stick out more painfully so ( probably some truth to that..) However, objectively ( or trying to be so...) I've always found the stats to have two problems: One, sample size is too small. Since the era of early snow chances kicked in - circa, 2000, there's only occurred ( I think ) 7 Octobers when/where either it was a flurries/packing pellets under virga-burst CAA cumulous, or synoptic slush. That's not a big number when there's been 200 million years of eastern Two, statistics will gladly be interpreted as not meaning anything' Why? Preservation of course... it preserves the unadulterated probability of a good winter, regardless of the preceding October. That may be true, anyway...but it also strikes me as bargaining a bit, because there's not that many omissions about the smallness of the sample size, either, which means it is unlikely to be a fair adjudication of the data - just going out and finding reasons to protect the drug shipments - hahaha. Seriously, I think we are in a tendency for early cool shots because of the expanding Hadley Cell associated with global warming, the PDO... or perhaps ( if not likely ) some combination of both. It's probably counter-intuitive for some, but... warmth does imply ridging. And the Pacific Basin is warm; it may be screwing with the World's early season(s) R-wave typology - in other words, making it unusually steep in western Canada. There's a short window right at the early part of N. Hemisphere transition seasons, where the NE Pacific is favored to ridging because of the latent heat imbalance. That means -EPOs and early cold shots and ever year we've seen these early blue Octobers it's been like that with -EPO or pulses therein.. Project a bit forward and then the more base-line pattern emerges ... probably more independent of that transient forcing that took place earlier on. So that sort of backs me into defending the 'cherry statisticians'

Probably more for the random thought thread but ... when faced with such alarming and incontrovertible evidence ...delivered in the above cinema like that, the production value in terms of drama/ magnitude I feel is necessary for an entirely apathetic society that doesn't appreciate/respect or "believe" ( because of the specter is too unbelievable for tenability ). And the latter aspect in that parenthetical, it seems to be proving an unavoidable first responder tact. It's almost like a longer protracted/staggered variation of the post-morem phasing. First denial, eventually leads to anger then bargaining ... The tenor of present seems to be somewhere between those three.

This is the latest I've seen our quadrature of Hemisphere not show -20 C at 850 mb along and above the 70th latitude ... specifically, in the models. Usually by now, they are flagging that in the first week of October and it's not happened yet. Not sure what if anything that means .. .but, it's interesting to me how the entire Canadian shield is loading with -3 to -7 C like that (850 mb) above this wall of heat trying to hang out S of Chicado. Odd look. Where's the land based snow at high latitudes ? Preoccupation and attention being devoted to sea-ice ...but our early winter temperature anomalies tend to move with with the state of the cryosphere..and this particularly true of -AO's later on, where autumn snow cover tends to proceed the -AO state as correlative -

we did touch 82 here in town fwiw -

Need more mixing this time of year ... because the solar input is warm, but not enough to destablize the boundary layer and turn it over on it's own like it would be May-Aug

No ...