Typhoon Tip

"... Misplaced practice of granting climate change deniers a visible platform to spout their anti-scientific beliefs was showing signs of yielding to scientific reality ..." It's really, really difficult to do so in many cases, that is, not suppress opinions in a democratic society founded upon the basic principle ( among many others ) of freedom to expression ... Fact of the matter is, despite the ethical virtues, and intentions of the founding forefathers with the 1st Amendment's provisions of free speech ... that ethic was created in an era that was too different to really make the rigidity of it's interpretation as valued in the same way as it was when it was first necessarily formulated ...hundreds of years ago. The reality of our time is one parted company with the ethos/pathos of that long ago era. As an aside, part of the problem with the Constitution, that "bible" of American cultural heritage ... is that it really does not allow the natural process of cultural evolution take place - it stymies that process, a process that is now becoming increasingly more influenced by the entire spectrum of modern science and technologies. These forces have a power well beyond the imagination of those that engineered those principles back whence. This may seem like a bunch of long words,... but I really feel this 'smoldering dystopia' of untenable non-sustainability for Humanity that we're dancing around ... is more than just a climate-based one. And strategies to evoke necessary positive change, should be addressing this bigger sociological pallet of concerns, in how to handle contrived dissension. Yes...there are some opinions that not so much we "think" need to be suppressed, but if allowed to cultivate opinions ( immoral efforts, or ignorant ) would be so detrimental to the very survival of the species ( and countless others...) they cannot possibly be be heard - yet we are hand-cuffed to free-speech. I'm not questioning the virtuosity of that - just the philosophical quandary we've arrive upon as a civility. Hey, that's just as valid - if that's what society wants, to be dead ...by all means, dissension from consensus truths so that people can continue to feel good now - that's name of the game, then. That problem is, no one person should be jury and judge and force the silence of any tongue or pen - so it's a delicate matter. How to preserve the intention of free-speech, in an era where there is no time to educate - interesting dilemma.

Three bombs and 0 chances..?

Mm... not necessarily ? Typically ... cyclones that remain weaker, are shallower systems ( structurally in the troposphere ) and can ... "evade" early steering so to speak. But, there have been plenty of systems that make the trek and dodged weaknesses in the ridging, too. Ideally what we want so see happen as hurricane enthusiasts is not to have 2019's hurricane season -

It's interesting how some years ... maybe 1954 and the like, it's so easy to cinema an event on the EC ... it probably even seemed that way during those seasons. Like, 'normal' or something. But this year? Sprayin' 'em out of the tropics yet you can feel safe and secure in the notion, even complacent, that God would actually fail if he wanted to make that movie -

GFS actually has a kind of "Imperfect Storm" deal going on S of NS out there over 48 hours... Takes Humberto and injects/capture and then clearly baroclinically implodes heights at the same time it has Hummer's residual core trundling around inside of it like a golf ball in a dryer cycle.

Yeeeup .. Looks like we got the next two CV misses lined up on the old assembly line ready to twist on up and model faux mpacts on the EC for another five days worth of lives stolen from local poster hopefuls...

...pretty soon, NHC will get this recommendation and then finally the rest of the world will know -

Interesting... seems via the tenor in here - we've gone from speculation of a week or two earlier nadir to a late one?

This is one of those years where the CV season goose poops 10 pellets down stream at the Americas and none do shit on the EC... Yet, we'll get a hurricane at all next year, and it'll go from Cape Hatteras to ACK and we'll get PRE'ed, and weather the wind of all these assholier-than-thou posters telling us that isn't a bad average so we're the jerks for want -

Sure ... here - geez

No argument ... Firstly, as a primer, the arctic is very sensitive when nearing melt states; input therms mean much more to threshold periods than they do during deeply descended seasonality. This year the arctic domain space has been near, or at that threshold ( as has that also been a predicament becoming more common over the last decade, plausibly longer), where in lock step the Arctic Oscillation teleconnector become a reasonably well correlated/indicator for melt rates. -AO is a warm signal above the 60th parallel; where the N. Hemisphere has yet to begin its seasonal cascade, that becomes problematic ( newly so..) at onset of this new/re-asserting -AO mode.

No... there's nothing about that solution yesterday that looped - do you know what a looped trajectory looks like? ...It looks like this: I'm not trying to be a wise-ass, but the cyclone literally has to perform a trajectory that does some variation of that - Looking at that particular model run, 18z NOGAPs or NAVGEM or whatever's its designation... I don't see that happening so not sure if you understand what we mean by loop

Not impossible ? But I'd still put that as the remoter of possibilities.. I mentioned that myself yesterday or the day before, that it's possible the models are digging the 'capturing' trough to prodigiously... Shallowing that out gives Humberto a tug...instantiating and N then NNE/NE motion only to have it then slow down as said trough skirts away and heights tend to build back in around and moat it off.. . That could mean a south displacement as a drift if/when something like that were to occur, because these cyclones are like water in the sense that they always move with the flow/path of lowest resistance which would be south in such a scenario ...etc. After that... heh, getting it then turn back west and then back N ...thus completing a loop, would require the next trough it the series being well behaved ... and well, long before we got to that sort of reality we have to have all these other things go right first...and it's delicate. It's really pretty remarkable getting that to happen at all ...let alone guidance correctly depicting it - I'm just talking about the loop as a behavior mind you... that's all.

I am .. this blows! It's only made worse reading other's holding out optimism for lost cause - ...oh, no one means it, but it rubs it in.. hahaha J/k... Yeah, I know... either way, time goes so fast for me - anyways - these days that it'll be next July while I'm waitin' on this winter -

It's a seldom wins month, September, for those that engage in this past time solely for the entertainment/dopamine "joy" spike factor. Having to depend almost entirely upon tropics to get those "highs" in this geographic predicament ? ... ancillary hobbies folks.

I would suggest that it is actually the evidences that are the real trigger-points for that modality - not the science alone. I realize you never said or insinuated otherwise in your statement - I'm strictly speaking to the "straw-man" in the room, and my concern that people do not respond to threats they cannot directly perceive through the corporeal senses... Being told this or that, via science, is not enough. It's mere to them ...They need to be burned, and seeing whales wash-up on beaches with barbie doll components blocking their digestive tracks, fair-weather high tides swallowing island nations, and suffering heat waves a degree she of biblical apocalypses, are just ( unfortunately .. .) what are necessary to get this message successfully into minds. And those evidences ..an entire raft of which are not mentioned here, but are televised, pale in severity the future holds at current profligate pace of Humanity. Life as we know it is going to change ... or has to. Certain convenience delivery has one of two options: change; unable to change. Change may come via technologies... biodegradable plastics... sustainable green energy sources... etc..etc... and these technologies have been around for decades, unexplored or shelved, btw. But it's a race... enters the unable to change and ...well, that ends any discussion of any kind, everywhere - time will tell.

There is nothing about the presently modeled circulation medium over our quadrature of the hemisphere that would physically allow that system to affect this region. Nothing... We can wait until Sunday - that is fine... as in this field, much to our chagrin there can be those rare time when the pattern morphs completely as an emergent, non-predictable circumstance, toward a more interesting x-y-z scenario. Hell for that matter, no probability is truly zero in the perceivable Universe. There is no detectable trend to suggest any such morphology is taking place though. In fact, the opposite. In fact, it was espoused that would happen ( more likely...) JB? ...of course he Trumps an impact scenario as plausible - he's a sell-out Meteorological hooker and despite his borderline buffoonery being repeatedly exposed, people keep posting 'JB says' followed by pieces of verbal shit ...

Looks like we've entered the phase of development where the zygote TC spits out meso-vortices... Meanwhile, hi res vis imagery looks animate what appears to be a mid-level curl beginning to more observerably fold cyclonically inward about 60 or so naut miles ENE of the midriff Bahama archipelago - The models will likely play the blind initialization game in the initializations; until they're nailing down something more of an entity in that matrix ...any and all behavior obviously comes along with a caveat emptor. IT does bring up an interesting question for these early stages of development with these things... The tropical physical model of TC's is one heavily coupled to the sea/llvs ... but, it does some times seem as though the mid levels have a role in where the low lvl centers get "picked" hm

There was no "party" to begin with. I remember when I was 14 years old... the weather forecaster would mention a snow storm or tornado along the way of their broadcast, through a din of qualifiers signifying remoteness ... But I didn't often hear much less register those qualifiers in my auditory sensory processors in my shimmering sophistication as an observer back then... The next days always dawned jilted - Going forward... a would-be Humberto (?) is a good candidate for a looper. I realize no model is really doing that, but, I could see this thing being reasonably well-handled over these next three days ...then it starts moving ENE away...only to get abandoned by the trough as it flattens over the top of the west-Atl Basin STR. It then moves ESE then S ... talking some 8 days out... the models having shown poor ability to adjust/correct toward such a behavior for the obvious reasons. Speculation...

Theres very likely to be a tropical cyclone their guys .. that’s the least uncertain part.

Typical behavior of a sensitive system at the nadir - it's responding to everything

So long as one is careful not to conflate "surprise" with "destruction" I mean it would only help to get folks under cover. Otherwise, it wouldn't really matter whether there is element surprise... A category 3 hurricane moving that fast, whether seen coming or not is sides the point; it is doing the same consequential shit where ever it decides to encounter land... Like all water access terminals and real-estate ventures spanning the last 70 years from Brownsville to Portland, most of these regions were expanded profligate with only passive concern if awareness at all to the relative rarity of a 1938 ...or a Galveston 1901 ... or a Labor Day bomb... Andrew... Maria ... etc etc... and well, these things are simply going to happen again. The present infrastructure of the upper MA and S. SNE regions is an order of magnitude more valuable/expanded in terms of economic equivalency ... such that proportion to era would make a 1938 redux the superior loss in these modern times. So yes and no... these other relativity make that no sense of ease or comfort even if one gets to know it's coming ...

Assuming it wobbles N up the coast spanning three languid days as the ridge lobes over top like that - big if ... - that flatter correction of the Lakes trough takes New England out of the running anyway. Might be more of a swipe up Nick's way in this type of solution... but, this one ain't stickin' either.

It's not a typical pattern... There's not very much climate -based precedence for getting a hurricane up this far N comparing the totality of the synoptic evolution of either this 00z, the 12z ...or their blended solution(s).

Just think ... There was once a time when it was absurd to think of the world as round. There was once a time when it was absurd to think of contraptions that could fly. There was once a time when it was absurd to think of going to the moon. Just like it is now absurd to imagine any technological reality where weather prediction has become a thing of the past. Why, ...because of the advances in Quantum sciences leading to atmospheric momentum guide technologies... Yes, in addition to circumventing the Light Speed limit as described by General Relativity ... a nifty ancillary "precipitant" ( haha ) ability is the advent of the "weather modification net." A global systemic control that dictates the rain and sun cycles around an idealized application that ( of coure) falls well short of any reason for worry. Completely banal and uninspired garden watering, followed by utterly dependable utopic mixtures of sun, clouds andtepid air. That's what everyone wants. If such a reality were to envelop the world tomorrow - just supposin' for a second. .. - I wonder. About how long do we think this ilk of social media would continue to depot internet pass-time ? Oh... I give it a two years... By then, then, most that sojourn the past will finally have grown tired of reiterating the same sagas. And the newer generations that never knew of a world that weather-mattered, having socialized their interest elsewhere, will no longer matriculate in and interest will have extinguished ... just like everything that exists in a Universe intrinsically limited by finite time - including ... the Universe its self - eventually does.