Typhoon Tip

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It gets harder ... I mean, we could get a slab of 20 C 850 air and end up inverted real easily at this time of year, simply because we cannot afford to adulterate or dim the solar input ... at all, else we can't expand boundary layers and yadda yadda yadda... It's almost got to be a DP of 60, and 18C or greater at 850 mb level, within a WSW flow from the surface to 200 mb around an epic ideally positioned, nearly historic 500H ridge beast to make 90 - this sort of description would yield 101 in June. Something like that... just being spatial in my description by we get the point.

Mm ... it's also quite possible that dreariness is overdone ... That's a big high, and it's not there for not - it's emerging out of a strong confluence. The whole flow could trend more suppressive. But otherwise, it's early October ... yeah, it's time to do those 50s thru 24-hour rain rates of .23" It's not really 'suffering,' so much as facing inevitability for the realists among us. Now... perhaps in another 10 or 20 years of GW, we'll have cooked up a new climate where it's more like November 3rd for 50s thru 24-hour rain rates of .23"? I'm just thinking we aren't so far along that we can't get some typology more consistent with Octobers of lore once in a while. We just need to avoid the early snow, which tends to eerily portend a failed winter when it does - whole 'nother oddity. I still like the overall notion that this appears to be a seasonal "seam" week - by this time next weekend, warm regions of the continent outside of the Gulf states/Flor and deep SW are more like 564 dm thickness, where as contrasting before hand, it's 570 or better over large region(s) south of ORD-Logan axis... And, the return flows out there don't re load those regions with summer pith.. That's all more than less a hallmark of the a thematic flip toward a cooler paradigm in a more permanent sense of it which is ( obviously ) seasonally driven for me. Baby steps for winter lovers.. gotta crawl before you can walk and run. Well, in this case, 'roll-over' before you can crawl but we're getting there.

Yes Menfeld! ...apologies; I didn't see your post before submitting my own missive, else I would have responded directly to that one you made. It's directly was I was referencing in mine. As well, Don, agreed, and it's more than merely plausible, https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/WCAS-D-13-00059.1 ..is an article that I found to be fairly comprehensive in elucidating the many terrestrial factors out side of purely geopolitical distinctions that fed into Syria upheaval.

1 The short answer? The same way. ENSO (warm)(cool) phases are a 'climate cyclic' - and climate is inherently defined by ( events/n-events ). Particularly in the summer, when eddy forcing is more dictated by local scaled ( both time and space ) ephemeral anomalies, SS stressing can cause transient index topographies - but, when the autumn's kick the gradients in and the flows become for structurally defined those break down and the longer term residence re-emerges/gets exposed. 2 ..Approaching? most likely ... There? not likely ... Kinda of how to look at it. 3 Veerrry carefully - haha. I like qualification tactics because they are valid? One should mention their caveat emptors when discussing findings/foresight - that's more true to the scientific theme, anyway, because even Einstein said "Theory" within his title of General Relativity - even though at scales above Quantum Mechanics ... the rules that precipitate out of his tensor analysis' are incontrovertibly clad and he could have said, General "God am I smart, my way or the highway" Relativity. 4 Absolutely yes!

Koe' it has to do with low-level lapse rates over water. When CAA is occurring, the warm water enhances instability and helps 'over-turn'. This restoring/convective processing mixes the environment proficiently enough such that stronger winds can come down and interact with the sea-surface and enhances wave action ...

This Day 6 Euro is a terrific ice-storm look .... .... in 2 months

This is extremely important frame-work exposure of the crisis... Species migration will/has be a Humanity issue just as is for any other life form that necessarily moves from areas of harm to areas less so .. impelled to do so by their very instilled/instinct to survive. The destablization of the Baltic region and the recent refugee flux event over the last 10 years, was not just geopolitically motivated - as some scholarly papers available to general consumption of the web-browser discuss, and are available if one bothers to go and find. They were experiencing ecological failures on a multi-year scale, already on-going, such that the fateful arrival of the aforementioned duress becomes more like 'straw that broke the camels back.' It is what it is in a vacuum but .. part of the facets of the culture anti-CC narrative is the lack of culpable evidence that it is effecting/affecting - when there are evidence of this and have been for a decade or more in actuality and needs to be presented and spotlighted.

Mm... I'd say probably should hold off until next Thursday - perhaps than we'll get a handle on how to handle convection east of the Hudson' two days ago -

It would be a win-win scenario if 50s was because we were always averaging 100 + 0, huh

The GFS with dubious boundary layer kinematic handling ....? no f way man -

Meanwhile ... all of it is semantic pass-time Earth-movingly important, too -

The Industrial Revolution caused it all... Not a single generation since... It excited profligate expenditure and entitlement attitudes to the environment which --> directly to why we're all most likely not going to make it, because we are ( most likely ) either: unwilling; unable to change. And the Mets on here ..rolling their eyes as to "why" countless die due to dwindling provisions, disease, social duress, as they tell us heat waves aren't caused by GW. People don't realize... the apocalypse is sociologically driven, as much as geo-physically responding to our presence. We can't break the million-500 thousand years of prior human evolution-instinct, which meant for all humans ( save Geoffry Dahmer) to seek cooperation bonds that were always needed in order to survive ... Catch-22: evolution advances a species into a scenario where the evolution of the species ends it's reign. We are some 8, billion and change population by 20 years, and that may as well be 8, billion and change sovereignties all vying for special proxy ... as though the afforded-individualism the Industrial Revolution conveniences provide to their arrogance and entitlements must be unstoppable and elevate them to godly provinces - .... and it won't work But, if we need to blame Millennials and Kevin ... hey, no argument here man -

How's this for a kielbasa post - if you stuck this Kleenex and tissue paper on the Benchmark in all it's multi-nodal glory, it would cold-conveyor-belt snow all the way to San Francisco - while denuding Boston, Ny and the entire Jersey shore completely off the face of the planet ... ....And Trump would blame Obama ... and rural America would toe-the-line on that accusation.

Almost ... need another 6' but real close there - all over the ski industry circuit of New England ... analogous to Homer Simpson on the donut stuffing machine in hell -

Know what'd be awesome... heh... snows so much all ski resorts are inaccessible .... talin' over 50' ...well over the top of the lodges. Lift chairs half buried with the tops of the towers sticking out...

There's unusual eddy forcing all over the place because of the modulating impact of the expanded Hadley Cell into the Ferrell latitudes ... That's a large anomaly that's greater than single-seasonal and more a reflection of the state of the planetary system. This causing anomalies compared to the previous classic systemic model, and [ likely ] obscuring the "real" state of the oceanic indices due to those stresses. Things may look IOD (-)(+) but be ephemeral ...? They are responding to local time-scale disruptions that are part of that larger modulation. They would be faux presentation of states ... or, if they are real and integrating, it may not be readily coherent if they carry the same forcing weight because they are not differentiating the same way as they did in the previous model. A ballooned(ing) Hadley repositions the gradation of heights at mid latitudes. This effects a slew aspects in the on-going, longer term eddy forcing around the Hemispheres. I just think we cannot be as ENSO reliant at relative measures/observations, to known or suspected results, when those Climatologies are based upon a different era when these macro physical states of the environment dictated a different interrelationship among these various fields - or is strongly hypothetically supported as being different via convention academia and a-priori experience as to how this shit works.

Don posted excerpts from a letter to the U.N. general several posts ago... This caught my eye immediately - this particular sentiment, which I've heard repeated in the "cost vs consequence" mantra quite often and it's irritating. "Current climate policies pointlessly, grievously undermine the economic system, putting lives at risk in countries denied access to affordable, continuous electrical power...." It's wrong for multiple reason. One, it is not pointless - the fact that the author of this sentence doesn't see the point, or has difficulty with connecting with the truth and reality of what climate crisis actually means does not mean the point does not exist. It simply means... he/she is either lacking the capacity to see it, or [ perhaps ] is/are too predisposed to other ideologies, so much so that they block the perception of truth and reality in the first place. Two, Tough shit! Related to one, this "concern" is rooted in a mentality that either doesn't understand and/or appreciate the magnitude of what the f climate "apocalypse" means, or is incapable to perceptions that take the "longer view". Clue: There is no economy in a future that cannot support an economy - thus, the author(s) question and concern is rendered void and irrelevant. I mean, this idiot cares about the economics and guess what... economics is based on a human construct. I conceit of value that is just a shared delusion - turn out the lights. It's gone. It's not, gravity or electromagnetism, or chemistry rules of nature that we all are compelled to abide by or we die. Economy, and the ways and means by which humanity stuffs meaning and value into it, is an abuse of the former natural laws - think long and hard about that. Those abuses, leading to the consequences we now face, are consequences precipitating out of bad practices before fully exploring what it would mean to do the things history has done - that will mean the demise of economy as we know it. These people among us ... it just begins suspect they are genetically lacking some make-up in the very wiring of their minds and are incapably connect the dots - ..little frustration here, admittedly. but Jesus - In a whimsy euphemism, we've ignored the gravity of our actions and went about profligate chemistry, and now... we have an electromagnetic problem. When I read this opening statement by the author, they lost all credibility in my mind and I can't abide - it actually makes it difficult to even want to endure reading further.

The "support-group" seeking tenor in here is too much today. Guys... quick reminder: it doesn't matter whatever in the f you want -

I don't think 18C is enough post Equinox solar input ... but, whatever... That should be the last of it - there's been an persistent theme among the models/blends therein for a pretty comprehensive 'thickness reset" timed shortly there after ...this going back days of guidance actually. Still appears to be the case looking over the usual suspects this morning. The pattern structure may not even change so much as once that happens, it's late and the return flows have lost the elevated thermal layout - oscillitory pattern is what we get out of those 10 days of heat hysteria in the runs. I love it. In the meantime, can you imagine if that ever situated on the Benchmark ?

Nice hot apple cider and donut pattern there in the extended GFS - ...too bad it's in the wiener schnitzel range

Mm... I think the ship's already sailed on the extended demonstrative warm anomaly idea. We're getting boobs from the north bursting around the east ends of warm boundaries like a burlesque brazier as it is... And the -EPO that's dumping cold into western Canada in the nearer term, those typically lead r-wave lengthening and that'll pretty squish the ridge/ablate what's left of it ... It'll be hot in Chattanooga I guess Not saying it won't come back later in October, but this is an outlook in flux and the correction appears pointed down for the time being.

Science is absolute and settled? I've never heard any "...International list of accredited scientists" make claims there's nothing left to science. Unfortunately though... Society won't fall into shit man. Nah ... human beings do not respond to threats they cannot directly perceive through one of the corporeal senses - global warming doesn't rumble the Earth and blare horns around the bend like that. Folks deny because they can ... and modern convenience still protects them. And the interesting thing is.. most denier don't even realize while they are flouting fact that they are being protected by conveniences they've long come to expect while they are doing it. You know, this may no be as ubiquitously known as it should be... The Earth is currently going through a mass-extinction. The other mass, "media," as well as the consumers of their product are just obsessed and utterly preoccupied with the thermometer .. tho more recently, ice caps and sea level rise are gaining some bandwidth. But, many species have gone extinct and the losses are accelerating? Paleo geologic records match the other epoch boundaries in the history of the planet to what is happening now... So shit ... if we wanna talk apocalypse, mass extinction events are a form of apocalyps... So technically, you've already lost the debate ( royal 'you') before pulling a chair up to that debate. I think part of the problem with this climate cataclysm shit is quite frankly Hollywood. It's not coming as a gray abyssal wall tipping over the horizon, or a Lucifer's Hammer comet/asteroid impact... or an X99 class solar radiation induced fire storm that subsumes the top mile of the planetary lithosphere into a magma sea ... It'll more likely come by way of crop failures and pathogen releases, and species migration habitat destablization, oxygen fixing biota break downs in the oceans ... to mention, over-population suffering from failed provision caused by the former cocktail inducing duress and probably wars... There will be adjustments along the way... but a lot of failures that aggregate in time to a forced capitulation which is philosophically losing anyway ... All the while, a select few held out their wealth in enclaves that we don't know about... all that fun stuff. muah hahaha. Just kidding enclaves but who knows -

Not sure if your bold is an accusation and belief of what's happened(ing), or a statement of how someone else is perceiving matters ... For me, I don't agree that scientists have been conditionally "fixing" numbers to fit preconceptions and/or agenda in the majority practice. Isolated malfeasance ... probably. That's concomitant with the species frankly and cannot be avoided. But, if one questionable apple slates the entire orchard for chopping and clearing, then in reality no one wanted the orchard in the first place. And I also find that whole climategate saga as really fodder for knee-jerk reactionary denialists that happened to come across turns of phrase that yeah... of course they are going to seem like a-b-c when/where taken out of context ...then of course repackaged for the nearest high-fiver. Look the ice caps are melting the atmosphere is heating up. It's over. ( not you per se, but to any one hiding in our midst that's frankly a f'ing complete nimrod and/or sociopath at this point). But ... we're probably on the verge of getting Will to a blow a gasket so we should probably not diverge this thread's purpose for being any more than we already have - haha. And I don't wanna get into politics talking points anywhere close to the anonymity and "hiding" of stellar virtuous social-media depots, either. Holy hell would I rather give head to an ice-pick!. Because one could be entirely righteous but from Lords Of The Flies to heretic ... history would paint them irrecoverably into an entirely wongeous corner purely by virtue of the douchery doctrines and iniquities of human truth and parlance - there is no god. only missed snow storms