Typhoon Tip

Not sure what the other Mets feel about this new "Bahama bomber" potential ... but the more I look over things, this appears to be a greater confidence that a TC will be handled, with limited/no confidence should the former actually happen... That is a highly unusual total handling in the larger synoptic scope/evolution ...noooot typically how we get a TC to run the course up the Eastern Seaboard. In fact, not many climate players are really even identifiable. Typology: ...just off the top of memory... 1 .. there is usually a 300 to 200 mb escape jet running ENE over/out of the NE U.S. region 2 .. some form of negative anomaly is settling into the 90W-80W region nearing mid latitudes over eastern N/A 3 .. some form of blocking ridge ( be it anchored in planetary wave and/or nodal cut-off ...) is lingering between 60W and 70 W over the western Atlantic Basin. ... We really only vaguely at best can identify these structures in whole based upon the operational Euro from D3.5 through D8... What the Euro is attempting to do, is pin the fledgling cyclone near the vicinity of the Bahamas and bide time ... waiting to evolve ridging and associate lower tropospheric surface +PP N of the system. This lobes over the top, ...finally, out there in the inherently less likely to even verify time frame ( anyway ) the western side of that configuration at last happens to set up a steering field to finally bring it up the coast. ... I mean, objectively, you see where I'm going...? I'd put this entirety at low likeliness at best. I suppose it is not impossible.. Fact of that matter, the models don't "really" model things that are "im"possible. Perhaps less likely ...sure.. for whatever reason. Anyway, I'd more inclined to suggest that if said ridging does lobe over top like that ...this thing might end up bumped agonizingly slowly into the interior SE somewhere ...

Actually ... to be fair ... every model has at one time or another, depicted a spin up in that region going back some four days- it's just not been very consistent, nor did they have the benefit of having an actual disturbance there to lend confidence in anything other than a phantom - it just makes it hard to know 'what' is the real origin. That's the problem with a fractal factorization running along with any propagated dynamic system - some emergence is legit... others, not so much. Anyway, I've been looking out over the CV traffic in the models and just like every year between late August onwards ... every guidance has instantiated a different TC at different times, both within their own discontinuities ...and with respect to one another - it's that buck shot time of year in the tropics. Every seabird's wake vortice seems to trundle off into the history books - It's been a good teaser year, though, so far.. Because we have this modeling earnest trough carve-out tendency in the extended at least excuse imaginable going on...and every time that happens... if there happens to be a phantom within grasping range it becomes the pen for the posting author.

This home-grown TC in the Euro from 00z ... now that's one that should be interesting - It's within 5 days in that particular verification wheelhouse and though that model tends to be stingy with initiation/TCs ...it's actually got a disturbance to latch onto - on going.

No more or less crazy than this for the same time period..

kind of funny ...all these qualifiers why a day 9 or day 10 is more intriguing cuz - ..of course it is ... heh.. I've give that position/TC there about 10% chance of being real ( intensity notwithstanding..), over the base-line 4%, more typical of at that time range. which of course means there's 90% chance to be excited over just about anything else. ... But, it's a hind-sight 2020 game of 'see' - cuz if it's there, the conclusion of foresight will of course not include the dump luck shit spray factor of models too often having phantoms there at that time range and therefore once in a while will seemingly get dapple right.

I'm wondering if there's some pan-systemic nature to the planetary system of teleconnectors, air, sea and land, that "gestalt" favors those "MJO wave" looks at this time of year(s). Thing is, I'm not ready to doubt those looks out of hand because we've actually hit some of those. Most of the time we end up with something flatter/tamer, more climate-like in terms of autumn amplitude, but there have been some oddities increasing in frequency, too. For example, there have been more October verified patterns either conducive to snow, or supportive of, than I can remember ever occurring through the previous 25 years before 2000. In fact, 1/3 to 1/2 of those years since, and I'd be willing to throw those white thanks givings in recent years into the mix of the "October" distinction - I mean obviously the atmosphere doesn't give a shit about Julian calendar temporal designations when it's cycling through its anomalies... etc.. Obviously if one is concerned with TCs affecting the eastern seaboard, some sort of negative anomaly ivo the OV while there is a western Atlantic Basin subtropical ridge helps your cause. TC gets guided into the key slot region of the outer Bahamas and then the perennial over-zealous PNAP structure completes the relay and there we go. But, seeing as we seem to spend an inordinate amount of time setting that quintessential pattern in the models, it also seems we have one on the D11 charts at all times. So I guess in short .. I wonder if the models are like setting themselves up for over-production of TCs in the east because of their predilection for these pattern orientations.

Occasionally we'll get a click-by shooting by some nimrod troll that's too stupid to realize they aren't making the impact they think they are, and are in fact only sounding like this guy ... But those aren't really the typical forum user. Most of y'all and the regulars in here really are not the target of these moguls and/or celebrities of the denial-sphere. They're targeting their constituencies, telling them what they wanna here. Morality and ethics have nothing to do with it. They have an easily life if their constituencies are happy - and what makes them happy? This clear and obvious logically flawed vomit they spew from their bully pulpits...

You do realize I was being a sarcastic asshole - right ... heh. Will might be a better regular user to ask the latter question. I'm not much of a stat guy but... say, 12 storms threatening the EC > Cat 2 ... that's like what, over the last 100 years ? 100/12 = 8 1/3 years so using the 'dopes linear regression' technique that means we should be threatened on the EC ( some where )a little less than once per decade by a cyclone worth counting/discussion ( lest the models bust! ) ... and I'm not sure those feed in numbers are even right ... Just seemin' like they are Problem with doping studies and then rendering them to the public with mighty turns of "entertaining" phrase and/or convincing pen in general is that we tend to end up with Trumpian presidencies when we do, so we gotta be careful these days... That, and of course we have to keep in mind that hurricane statistical topography is anything but evenly distributed... Some decades in that span had like 6 inside of 7 years and other eras seemed eternally dearthed ... Young doe-eyed Mets were born lived, and died in a drug related vehicular incident before another one repeated ...

This season may set an under-the-radar record ... ... for number of ghost 1938 reduxes in the GFS models - it's a little known distinction kept track of by NHC ... how many times this duck hunt happens every years -vs- how many times it actually does. ... The third column over in the Excel spreadsheet's header read, "Weather-related social-media's buy-in head nodding"

Mmm... The problem with Trump is Trump ... not political in nature; political distinction left the discussion ( or should long have by now ) for anyone with a modicum of intellect and moral/ethical awareness for quite awhile. Wrecking balls of social stability can be red, white, orange, purple, yellow, Democrat, Republican or Libertarian.. Regardless, they are only detrimental, and that is true, with or without the invocation of political orientation - that is the problem. ...end discussion. If you can't stand Republicans or Democrats or Libertarians, fine ... you need to fight for candidates that do not represent what Trump brings to the office of the presidency. Get it? jesus christ. Sorry, this is not directed any one in particular 'cept the straw man. But I do believe that Society is already getting their modes of awareness centered around the above realization as it's becoming clear in a spectrum of ways.

00z and 06z oper. GFS runs finish what Dorian failed to do ...

This thing reminds me of a bigger version of the 2005 Dec bomb that folded the tropopause and blasted SE zones with 90 mph wind gusts... Man...that storm was so unique. 15" of snow fell in 4 hours with almost no wind in interior Metrowest... meanwhile, lightning/thunder sheet rains flipped to snow during a macroburst ( so to speak ) that p-waved under the vort max and basically tarred and feathered everything in white flashing - whole thing was over in 5 hours and rendered to a peaceful undercut red sky sunset ...

Yeeeah, but in your defense ... that's sooo typical of that administration's tact - or has been to date... Fire anyone of rank and file, that offers the mere impropriety of opposition to the perspectives of the cadre, in lieu of hiring anyone that in fact supports said intentions - What do we call that class ? FAscism! Very good - y'all get a A. What? Are we in the weeds - we can't f'n see this happening? Heh... western civilization ( actually, human beings) really now has a substantive reason for doom prophesy. The era of the street-corner sign waving, auto-dismissive cookery is gone. Our species is earmarked for extinction, or in the least ... a population correction, one so magnificent as to be too untenable and therefore ... escaping any affecting/effective meaning - hence the ease in denial. It's easy to deny something that has no meaning - perfect catch-22. So, lets clap hands chew bubble gum and watch porn - cuz as Ebonic wisdom always most succinctly put, we be f'ed anyway.

Right ..haha... wouldn't ...or shouldn't expect any other cheesiness -

I love those naming conventions up there ... they're awesome! Man, for years I've been tongue-in-cheeking over why-for the "pedestrian" designation for these memorable phenomenon - seems sort of ironical. But then again ... I suppose it could be like the ole horror cinema trope, where the creepy girls at the end of the hall in the dimly lit pal say, "Come play with us Danny..." It's Hurricane Sally, and she wants you to come play, " ...For ever and ever and ever.." I mean - who out side the delusional realm of Political Correctness ( ...yeah, it's called 'reality' - check it out some time... ) would ever argue that it almost made more sense when they were always just female names ... Of course, back in the arrestingly self-aware 1950s thru early 1970s of mid 20th Century culture... Excluding the vagarious unpredictable tempest of the feminine intent and purposes for a moment ... why not name hurricanes "ball buster".. Or, how 'bout "head lopper," or just "head-roller". I mean you know... something indicative. "Island denuder where dip-shits developed a society and now we all have to feel sorry for them'er" ... Let's get creative here! Kidding of course... yes yes one is compelled to compassion for splintered foliage wrapped in building guts and body pieces... Wreckhouse warning - awesome. Gee, wonder how/why they cobbled that expression together.

Yeah..y'all got a humdinger of a hybrid transitioning to extra-tropical Nor'easter, huh -

I was attempting to poke the dwindling Trump supporter hornets nest. It's encouraging - actually - that there was not more in the way of typical knee jerk reactions from my doing so - but that could also be a reflection of anyone actually reading what I write. Ha! The real story there is the apparent spat between the NWS and NOAA. First, NOAA appears to have tried to come to Trump's defense, and as the story espouses, this was in bad taste to the NWS. Others should read and judge for themselves, but do so with the usual caveat emptor in mind that you are consuming any information at all via the modern tech-based-societal circuitry of shimmering morality and ethical standards for which information ownership-to-delivery, is now conveyed ... ( ...in other words ... don't ) But the NWS' Dan Sobian followed up with, .. Let me assure you the hard working employees of the NWS had nothing to do with the utterly disgusting and disingenuous tweet sent out by NOAA management tonight #NOAA,.." ( c/o CNN). Be that as it may, the gist of, "https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/06/politics/noaa-tweet-nws-trump-alabama/index.html" Granted, CNN is pretty shamelessly socially engineering it's headline practices these days. So often I attempt to corroborate their story and contents against ..oh say, your NPR's and GBH's of those organizational ilk. It is coherent that CNN's headlines and even embedded prose delivery is spinning. Somewhere along the way ... "corporate media" sold out and began targeting an Americana, a population that is now too dumb'ed down by modern conveniences to think for themselves and need a f'n Venn diagram just to tie their goddamn shoes and will believe anything for someone else's profit ... Either that, or the idio'sphere has always just been an untapped resource to target manipulation for the same ending goal ... now merely exposed by connectivity ( I kinda like that, too). But I digress. Point being, the whole "dispute," aspect should be taken with a grain'. ...comes across as though NOAA is jumping on the sword for Trump ...which, amazes me. Why in the f anyone breathing would sacrifice anything in the observable Universe for that c-s!ckr is so far beyond logic that the whole thing must be in suspicion as a "trumped" up story - who knows what really went down.

Looks like Trump might have been unfairly ridiculed ,.. "From Wednesday, August 28, through Monday, September 2, the information provided by NOAA and the National Hurricane Center to President Trump and the wider public demonstrated that tropical-storm-force winds from Hurricane Dorian could impact Alabama," the statement read. "This is clearly demonstrated in Hurricane Advisories #15 through #41, which can be viewed on the center's website.”

People have keyed an entertainment/"joy" circuitry into the specter of weather/naturally occurring drama. I'm not lamb-basting you per se ...but people live and breath and are quite happy ( or not...) in San Diego, where the weather is uninspired in those ways, just fine. And neither state of happiness or sadness has anything to do with big storms and such... That's the evidence - weather matters specifically for whatever specific reason, to those ...in here. I agree with Scott though - ... it's rooted in the greater/better capacity for human curiosity, really. We have to understand curiosity from a ...evolutionary perspective, for lack of better phrase. Human curiosity evolved as a mechanism to enhance their survival? Boom, what was that? ...go see... boom coming, move tribe. Boom not coming.... either way, tribe survives. Other animals 'get out of the way' but, we just do it with vastly more sophistication. And that investigation isn't taking place without the boom, first. In deference to Scott's context, it's hard to hear booms on 78 degree laze faire weather days. See... it is possible to want to experience these big things without also wanting to see people get harmed. You have to do the former to understand how the latter - that's really why the dichotomy exists. But... I do take exception at time with the 'joy' loss --> pissing and moaning thing. That closed lust is more of a perversion of the above virtue -

I think we're actually discussing similar aspect - Your talking point ( a valid one! ) has to do with people taking extremes in general - I don't argue that and in fact. I'm just offering plausible explanation(s) - it's endemic to society everywhere. No one wants to compromise on anything - rooted in a smoldering basis of identity crisis that is causally linked to the information boom. Oh deal ... I'll try not to digress too far but, if we look back in history, every time information forcibly tsunamis'ed through a population, said population tended toward populist/nationalism ... Educated perspectives that at least attempt the virtuosity of an objective perspective... there is a global modality in play, and it fits that mold. But, part of that is fear and insecurity, and contraction toward traditional perspectives is easier. Thus, hard-liner in nature, less open-minded and less capable of compromised and/or seeing middle-grounds. This happened before WW's I and II with the radio ...and a lot of conflict of the middle decades of last Century were also likely related to the advent of Television and the specter of outside influences triggering uncertainty in otherwise status-quo/regional biases. Suddenly exposing the world to .... well, the world, isn't a good thing when said world has the power to destroy its self trying to protect traditionalist views. We don't want Global duress ...because it wouldn't be like 1940 - not that that was good by any stretch. GW is part of that specter of uncertainty and fear - a lot of the denial is based on that, and that is why there is this apparently excessive polarization. For those that contract, it's simply non-existent. For those that attempt to be realistic about from science/math and rationalist points of view ( however successful in objectivity, notwithstanding...), for those they get frustrated and then they push toward the other side and there goes the middle ground - poof.

Actually ... weather, yes... Climate change? the opposite ... there is a wanton counter-culture toward the veracity of science, itself, a movement that attempts to evade the implication and specter of CC... The cause for that is hugely digressive and complex, so - I get what you mean by weather though and agreed - I touched on that since... We are preconditioned to the ever more illustrious cinema, so much so that if things fall short of expectations that get us as stimulated/aroused .. "there" in the "movie", there is a tendency toward dismissal. Basically ...we're all assholes in that way - well, "people" are. A person isn't...but we know how that goes - Anyway, Gloria was an event that broke up a growing number of dearth years and that's just unequivocal -

Agree here ... however, I was attempting to plumb that a little deeper into exposing the "fault of our gods" if you will... If folks were not inundated so much with increasing frequency and vividness of descriptions ... ( and mass media is hugely part of the phenomenon when they headline casts with " ..compared to x-y-z" ) ... Sometimes a storm is just a storm. It's not a failure or a bust or whatever, because it didn't touch-off some odd dopamine release that seems to trigger in some individuals. If anyone 'negates' Gloria, they are futile to listen/read. I suppose you could say the "hype" itself busted... but that's the human faulting -

I don't understand this reticence or dismissive sort of disregard tendency that goes on surrounding Gloria in 1985. Fact of the matter is, that was a Cat 1 hurricane moving at 30 mph,; combining 75 mph winds with a 30 mph forward motion imposed a significant threat... And at minimum 2/3rds of that power verified at the ground .. causing a significant grid impact even across much of the interior - it's broadly eastern limbed tropical storm force wind field penetrate considerably far inland. I was living in Acton Massachusetts at the time... about 30 miles as the crow flies west/NW of Boston up Rt 2, and even that far removed we had many turbine roars with leaf litter flitting over roof tops and tree canopies. Plenty of tree damage downed and tangled up with a spaghetti of powerlines was dangerous, to mention... and we were out for days in that.. It was a well forecast, beautifully behaved "Long Island Express" model CV cane, so this "Meg" treatment is a baffling and bullshit frankly... My hypothesis is, that was the first of the modern superior coverage/dystopian histrionic storm era - really, the event heralded it in, and 'dystopia for entertainment' media had begun. And wouldn't you know it... because it had to 'just be' a Cat 1 and not a Cat 13 to really snort the storm coke ... Ruined people's high - t may as well 've been a bust. Perhaps not exactly? No. But there is this palpable storm lust that goes on with these things in the modern era of cinematic reality we stimulate ourselves with, such that typical storm topography isn't quite textured enough anymore to meet with predisposed unrealistic expectations. Few long words... but Gloria was not a mere scattering - it was a perfect inclusion in the 30 year periodicity for LIEs ... If you guys are waitin' on some kind of Cat 4 run from 50 miles E of Cape Hatteras to Mt Washington... hope you live for 10,000 years because that's probably what the return rate is on this preconditioned idea of storm excitement.

GFS operational ( ...haven't paid much attention to the ensemble members/means ...) has been particularly fanatical about over-coming typical track perturbation odds or order to no-problem streak a CV cyclone clear across the Atlantic basin ...just so it can quintessentially end up thru the "key slot" lat/lon near/NE of PR. Dorian just did this ... perhaps there is something endemic to this season that is improving base-line odds? Actually inclined to think otherwise ( ironically..), but here we are. Unsure - but, I jokingly threw up a post several days ago that showed an idealized denudation of southern New England just like all the responsible and sanely objective posters claim to want to avoid ( ) ... Anyway, the GFS' giggedy may just be the times and the bell-curve of seasonality, and we happen to be introducing buck-shot cumulative chances to the modeling circuitry and there we go - something gets thru.