Typhoon Tip

things lookin' pretty good in the long range for warm enthusiasts ...

54/16 desertification

I was actually buckin' for 58 in Tolland, and 78 in Danbury

GFS is pretty weak with it on this run anyway. Confident there'll be a BD if not non-committal warm boundary in the area early this week. Question is how meaningful it will be to sensible weather. Conventional experience/history tells us the sorest butt relative to all indicators is the safer lean but there's always hope - again, albeit quite rare, ...I have seen these kind of synoptic outlooks break more favorable so it's not impossible. I just don't wanna end up 47 under slate grays sky while it's 84 in Newark NJ

At this moment, in the actual charts that people actually 'look at,' Sunday has the best potential for a W wind warm day - sun assisted. That said, even it is somewhat laced with uncertainty because a diffused warm boundary is attempting to smear through the area overnight, Saturday night, and the models are not making it abundantly clear whether that passes cleanly off or doesn't stall in the area. Some models have QPF dappled in the area. Seems to be trending toward less of that taint so ... it may end up more partly sunny with warm advection entrails around and temps rising over machine guidance -type day. But that ill-described WF seems to be the impetus for screwing up Monday. The discrete analysis of the pressure pattern over our region on Monday look less like a BD actual passage and more like one that materializes S, which gives an impression that for all of us NE of mid NJ ... it is more like 'defaulting' the area on the N side. There is an upshot to that, it's not a BD with a face smacking cold whip. Fronts that come through with jolt chilling wind gusts and a strata ceiling rendering what was once a warm sunny afternoon to a dreary gray, 32 F temperature plummet ... happen when they formulate NE from a cold origin, then mixing in Labrador urine along the way. And it all takes place within an hr or less. We've seen this more times than can be counted in memory since being alive. The upshot is that a BD already south, places us in an already homogenized air mass, so not quite as harsh as being as being 'back-doored' by a horny Labrador The problem is that the gradient is really weak at this far eastern end of that warm frontal miasma. It's one reason why the front is amorphously defined... but, it all means there is limited momentum to actually bring it through. So it stalls in the area ... The rest is topographical. High terrain W-N, has a built in counter current at all time pointing back SW, east of said elevations at lower levels - it's a geographically fixed unmovable, always in place, consequence about New England. I "think" the models are just allowing that vector as the only remaining forcing - and so they are kind of like formulating a BD pattern in position. it's interesting. Beyond that the week is less confident. Yesterday it looked like ( as is usually the case with BD climo - ) any wedging would be blown out by Tuesday late as a weakening frontal structure cleans out. It would actually have been warmer ( potentially) after that, with lower thicknesses, being offset with katabatic flow type and high clear blazing sun... etc. But last night's Euro abruptly obtruded a much strong trough with that... Meanwhile, the GGEM and the GFS are closing off a cold spring pig shits low between here and NS. Either scenario is bad for warm enthusiasts. 7 days out though...

Agreed

I think Kevin must be using his installs to actually heat his home ? hahahaha

Yeah Scott, next week's warm up may not happen NE of mid New Jersey... Oh it will at 2,500ft but anything underneath that ~ altitude is outside the party listening to grooving music and good looking people through the wall of the BD front. Sorry Kevin, you're not invited

It will be colder tonight than last night. ... there is no argument

I only remember once in my life forecasted back door front never showed up. I was amazed.

Every year one of these BDs on the charts gets successfully beatin back from all these plausible philosophies and interpretations and then what happens? it ends up in southern NJ remarkable correlation exists between those two results … General rule: if the models hint at a back door cold front at all, it will be misery beyond NYC some 90% of times. maybe this will be the one in 10 time it doesn’t

In fact, that has a BD boundary into NE massivetwoshits.

"Less likely" isn't an entirely responsible statement for our climatology in late April, when then also considering it against the actual modeled tapestry for that period of time - not sure you are fully aware of either of these two facets. lol j/k but we've seen BDs materialize out of less leading indicators a thousand times. Wiz' is right - there's already something in that look that is hard to pin point what's going with that. Here's the Euro's 12z ... not willing to bet against a BD with that giant polar high up there like that. It may work out. hope it does... just saying, "be leery".

just had a non-severe micro burst here. Dark skies and sprinkles and out of nowhere... wild whipping around pine trees and loud white nose. Sun back out and much less

Some of the other guidance have been on and off with a pretty significant BD early Monday so... just be leery, tis the time of year - The flow over eastern Canada/Maritime isn't ideal for heat here - as is modeled... It's tending to curved field orientation. We want that zonal or we risk the NE fisting

That might make sense ...both locations are a bit displaced from the equatorial regions where the tropopause heights are naturally lower.

imagine the power that could be generated if turbines were forced by tides... wouldn't have to worry about whether the wind is blowing or the sun is shining... celestial mechanics --> tide cycle is always on, period.

moderate shower here...

early warm air seldom occurs with elevated ("summery") DPs. That's not only statistically true, the reasons are academic -

Every month next winter is likelier than not to be above normal across mid latitude N/A - it's a matter of how much or little.

GFS up to it's usual unique talent to wall off warmth from getting N next week... That huge ridge at mid and upper levels .. yet it somehow engineers the means to keep a cool E flow from ORD to Boston

We should also also qualify the contest. Ha! I mean this is the 'solar forcing' contest. Yeah, I've witnessed more. I actually saw a 54 F spread in January 1994. It was a +9 F at dawn; 63 F that evening at 9pm with southerly whole gales leanin' tree tops and plumes of steam rollin' off of snow banks. Different beast. These spring diurnal wars between Earth and sun are interesting for a excruciating dweeb like myself; the Earth's will to keep it miserably cold at this time of year, gets its ass thoroughly tanned by a boarding school nun sun.

Prohibitive favorite for top diurnal spread today... Bottomed out at 29 around 5:50 am just before the dimmer switch started elevating the light. It is onw 56 already. A 27 F correction thru 9:40 am. 850 mb Ts mature to +3 by 21z ... I doubt the mixing hgt gets that tall but we'll see. The sun is pretty ferocious now and sat and sky truth are both diamond clear with 0 inclusions. So the super adiabatic layer at the bottom will be violently bouncing against the ceiling. It may be a late high ... between 4 and 5 pm. Was visualizing about 67 at BDL and FIT and I'll be damned if MAV machine numbers are right there. But assuming so ... 38 or 39 spread at a time of year where a 1 to 2 pt machine cool bias is not unheard of ...we could cap out at 40 degree spread. wow Sneaky pick of the week day. I mentioned that today had a chance to be a gem but I think we're all too captivated by the size of the seasonal dong we're about to take Thursday to at least enjoy a swell day in the foreground ?

It's because Dandruff isn't soluble in water -