Typhoon Tip

Not sure I agree here... We ARE in a catastrophe, a slow moving one. Too slow to be seen in what we call "real time", or human perception, but that slowness only beguiles us into a false sense of lessening urgency. Don and I ( and any others et al) have been discussing about the limitations in the biology of all Terran life ( for that matter -): for all species, urgency is aroused by what their senses are telling them. Human beings, as far as can be empirically tested, are the only life forms on this planet capable of prognosticating doom or boon based upon projection. But we still procrastinate, if not outright disregard those forecasts when the evidences are not directly appealing as such. You know ... what can be seen, heard, smell, tasted., or touched. The tree does fall in the woods whether anyone is around to see it happen or not, and in this case... it's particularly bad because the proverbial tree is falling right in front of us, yet is unseen. But it's still falling

Climo nor'easter in the end... That's only by impact too - most coastal storms don't emerge the way this one did, with such torpid H500 evolution amid what looks like a spaghetti plot of isopleths.

At least we got a decent Saturday ( recently ...), because this, this day is why I don't believe New England is worth it in the long run. I just find this to be more loathsome than any so-called top 10 day is lovely. There can never be equality in a weather solvency becuase bad vs good? the bad is always that much worse. Anyway ... I'd lost track of how many proverbial top 10 days we'd had since mid summer. Eventually ... some sort of justice ( seeing as New England is clearly persecuted for ever experiencing weather joy ) was going to come calling. This, here on this day and as evidenced in this satellite shit show below, is the ass of the judge hangin' over us ... midway through a colonoscopy prep

It's CNN so tfwiw but .. https://www.cnn.com/2025/10/13/climate/tipping-points-coral-reef-ice-amoc

If that happens the entire Pacific oceanic heat wave it’s called ..,east of the dateline is going to be eradicated at a record rate. That’s unlikely though

It’s real and you know why it’s happening don’t ya

it's amazing how drama seeking changes whence one owns the responsibility, huh

yup... that's been a glaring aspect. don't usually get something on the EC while the west is plummeting - this 12z Euro run may be onto something. i mentioned earlier that a contraction s is possible but ...heh, not sensing much acknowledgement. wonder why haha

yeah ...and so their flyin' around cold addled with their stingers stuck projected infinitum, too

impressive to see a 27 F recovery by 11am ... That's a lot. Might be the most explosive diurnal turn around (rate of change) we've seen in some time. We could make 60, which put this in contention for biggest spread, too.

No it isn't; complete conspiracy

Meh... this is how the hemisphere seasonally sheds its therms, though. I.e, longer nights, ideal radiative transfer into free space. Then, with ensuing diurnal insolation being insufficient to add as much energy as the energy that is lost, there is a net cooling in the ambient space. This principle makes me less objectively willing to call anything fake. I get what that means ... I guess I just don't agree in belittling it. My druthers aside, these "fake cold" nights take their toll. More of them as the sun slopes deeper by day, and the nights get yet longer and longer; the cold battery of the winter hemisphere is gaining charge. More proficiently N than S, of course, until the build up becomes significant.

It's interestingly suggestive of the resolution of these two models. The Euro being more discrete tries to expose more precisely where the winds gust higher in the outlook ...notice the elevation with that. The GFS is "fuzzier" with it being less resolved.

This was/is always likely to be nothing more than a climo nor'easter. Pretty much just an autumnal raw rainy time of it, swept along by manageable wind. Less than very remarkable in either case. That should be the baseline expectation with this thing. Yeah, that allows a realistic expectation that someone, some how might over-achieve in either measure, but any observation would be the exceptions to the rule. I still wonder if at the last minute ... a bit of a S contraction in late modeling with less push all the way up. I'm not forecasting that, but I'd be leery of that happening. Either way, the high pressure that's currently parked and giving cause to the current shot across the bow air mass, is retreating due east. SO... it may result less d-drip dose potency than wanted, but your getting a raw east wind whether this thing does that weird oblong thrust up the coast or not. One aspect I'm noticing is just how weak this whole structure is in the H500 evolution. 35 kt jet at 500 mb, parallel offshore the EC doesn't typically inspire all that much. The low pressure is objectively not modeled much lower than 1000 mb - some guidance as low a 995 but the average is higher than that. Even though I said 'climate nor'easter' above, the former is in fact weaker than a climate nor'easter. I'm only giving it that much in deference to that structural anomaly these guidance insist will take place; a bit of an anomalous polarward expansion around the N wall of the cyclone basin.

Red herring's still on the table I'm noticing a weakening trend in the H500s that's very subtle over the last 2 days ( look at 18z two days ago and compare it to this run...etc). Eventual if that continues and it this slips below a forcing threshold it's a laugher. It's just not a convincing signal. But sure why not

It'll end up being a climo nor'easter in the end. most likely ...

who needs hybrids when next up on the docket wrought this

yeah... not sure what the hard empirical averages are but just anecdotally ... it feels about right to get frosts going about now. Freeze? meh ... semantics once that former does get going in my mind. I think - as an aside - it's interesting that the operational Euro and sometimes the GFS ...keep trying to bring winter air masses ( like sub 540 dm!) plumes into GL-SE Canada-NE in their extended ranges. I don't necessarily dismiss the notion of early winter expressions, when both the numerical teleconnectors, and the spatial synoptic layouts of the ensembles have a 2010 sort of -NAO semblance in their Oct 20th+ ranges. But, with the PNA doing an unmanned fire hose flopping around in the guidance underneath, we're also seeing big warm surges rolling underneath and sometimes flipping us the other direction - but very little continuity as that implies.

there's a distinction between 'freeze' vs 'just a frost' ... probably. I mean if you've had a 27 in your back yard, say, but that wasn't general regional result, you're still included in it

Work on getting this far north, first

If that consensus verifies the QPF along the ORH spine and then again along the Berk's will probably over perform. The wind is less a concern west of ~ I95... However, with the oceans being potentially warmer than the air over top, the coastal zone may get bigger gusts/ mixed more momentum.

Humanity doesn't get it... ( just speaking in general here - ) That bold statement has nothing to do with solving the problem of anthropomorphic CC. This existential threat does not have a solution that can be exposed searching for solution through any kind of lens tinted by economics. Humans created a social construct, economics, which has allowed the machinery of human civilization ( with competition strife and other dark tension to put it nicely!), to go on and do what it does... However, the variables in that mathematics are 100% exclusively separated from the physics of CC - yet, we keep seeing these proposals that do not deal with physics of CC, instead approaching a problem of apples with orange solutions. That has to change, absolutely. Or, it will be why species upon species, including human kind, die out. En masse, species' limited by incompetence and/or immorality --> extinction level event. bye

I was up at UML back then, Merrimack Valley, which I know you're familiar with that setting ha. We started getting deep radiationally cold nights with cold still air dead fall of foliage from around peak color dates on... I recall that specifically around mid October, 24 F low type mornings with leafs flitting down. The cold clips the leaf stems, probably because phase change expanding the freezing water fractures. There was new leaf litter directly beneath trees while sloped morning sun cut ineffectively sideways. It was annoyingly cold having to crossing the Univ Ave bridge expanse for early classes that year. The water trickles that run down the granite blocks along the north/shadow side of the aqueduct's fascia had begun to freeze - I recall thinking that must be early behavior. Well before Halloween and by the end of the month ... the days were no longer rising past the upper 40s. The chilly days and shadow side the ice survived, still in tact late in afternoons. Something was in the air that the season to hurriedly leaving warmth beyond. In early November, we did have a day - I think - that made a run at 65, but it did not last. In fact, the next cool down was the first 'smells like snow' air. As it were, we had a mix event that put down 1-2" of sleet mixed with mangled snow and cold rain. That froze to the ground as it went even colder by mid month, when we had another more significant 3-5" sleet and snow event. Temps tanked around then. Clearly a western limb -NAO circulation mode was holding proxy over the temperatures, SE Can and New England. I think if memory also recalls, this was not digging SW into the CONUS very far at that time. It was sort of gradated, with winter here, prior to Thanks Giggedy, while still trying to hold on to mild conditions at Pittsburgh type of thing. But it was pressing... by early December, everyone was bricked earth with a lot places having snow pack all the way to PA. We were some 15" of snow pack, in single digit cold By Dec 10, and the "MRF" model runs were consistently producing snow events out to the end of the 10 day visions. As it were, in the Merrimack Valley, we really lost the ground around Nov 15-ish for good... did not see it until the big winter bust up thaw in latter January. At one time we had 33" on the level snow pack shortly after the "Megalopolis Blizzard". In fact, there was one more coastal that put down 6-8" wet snow over top, and I remember a lot of local media headline warnings to clear snow from any roof loading. *8" of blue glory on a historic pack tends to cause structural failures..etc... But during that last event, there were already signs that a big change was right there in the charts and indices, and well... two Minnesota bombs and 10 days later, all that snow was down to just field puddles, while steam rolled off snow piles. Winter tried to make a comeback in February... and did - but with the memory of the early loaded blitz so awesome, it eclipses the memory some. I remember still getting wet snow events into early April and not liking it that late. But I never do... I'm usually pretty checked out by March.

op appears to be a bit of an amplified outlier with that. It's an odd evolution either way. It's not really part of the main wave circuitry propagating around the hemisphere. It's a plunk in stranded v-max that the GFS seems to then use convective feed-back to feed-back what it needs to formulate a tempest - I'm always a bit leery of those spontaneity looks in the mid range. A suppressed subdued appeal in the ensembles isn't helping. Not impossible tho.