Typhoon Tip

76. incredible out there with < 50 dps and no wind and no cloud.

70 here...

There's all kinds of possibilities re the pattern next week. no one's more likely than the other at this time given what's available via the indexes, as well as poor continuity with the larger synoptic aspects coming from the guidance.

59 low 66 at the moment... Very little air movement for now but some breeze is likely. Full sun has taken over as a sharp clearing line has moved S this last hour. Should make a run at about 72 or 73 for a stellar day. Subjectively a top 10er if this were April. Not so sure in mid August when folks expect 80, tho. Warm enthusiasm may take minor exception, while cold enthusiasm exaggerates significance without awareness that they are (lol) . This air mass is sneaky over-performing cold; not sure folks are really aware of that, nor why. If you look at the surface chart alone, you'd say ...well, you have a polar high bubble-no-trouble in Ontario pressing in. But that structure belies the fact that it is occurring as an anomaly relative to the hydrostatic heights - those being what is commonly referred to as "thickness". Both those, and the non-hydrostatic heights, are still positive. So we have a disproportionately cool low level relative to these metrics. It's more typical on a sunny day in mid August, when thicknesses are 567 dm, to have a surface T in the area of 82. The significance of that analysis is not hugely important to the everyday. However, I see evidences of this kind of warm anomaly ( "echo" ) occurring all the time, if perhaps hidden. Often masked by synoptic noise and/or hidden by a sensible appeal that suspends observing. It feels cool = gloat and don't look any deeper. As a digression... I've often mused that CC's biggest hurdle to overcome is the lack of impact it has to the actual five senses. It doesn't hurt enough? If it was at least more inconvenient. But being a "perceptively invisible" agent, or one that's not inconvenient enough either way, isn't helping it's case. If you want to appeal to the population, which as a bulk density that is too "dense" to anticipate via scientific interference (let alone, if the implication means they have to modulate their life), you need more than warnings from a scientific ambit that whatever reason is always the butt of jokes instead.

Climo's begun the slow decent ... At some point ... January is still going to happen whether summer wants it to or not. It's just a matter of how the speed bumps orient between now and then. those that want that to happen will exaggerate the progress right away. those that don't will ignore the signs as being any kind of descent. somewhere in between reality resides. That means it can still be 100 for a couple or three weeks, but getting lesser possible with time. It also means there can be a cooler air masses with mirror increasing probabilities with time.

Two days ago ... both the numerical teleconnectors, and the spatial-synoptic evolution, from all three ens means, looked "shot across the bow"-esque with the post August 20 range... As Scott also mentioned, there's a signal now to confined that more to just the third-ish week. The last week of the month reverses. I remember commenting a month ago, that I didn't like the August cool idea being floated at the time - memed to death by the usual X suspects - because there has been this leitmotif to lower Pacific NW heights. We may still end the month more marginal-AN. It'll be close. Regardless, whenever the models this season have showed more ridging in Pac NW outlooks, it was proven unstable. Within short days ... new height crash and troughs were digging down the B.C. coast. So long as that return base-state behavior is there, that's a non-linear indicator where the forcing the hemisphere wants to really be - it's your "correction vector". Here we are again... We'll see, but as of this moment starting to characterize as a mere pattern reset.

It’s not impossible, but Id be more willing to bet sea-surface wind stressing patterns over time forced the distribution of thermal anomalies - I’d want to rule that out first. He’s making conjecture so I’m not really faulting him per se but if there’s going to be a formal science out of it, that’s gotta happen. That and any other plausible forces … Eliminate the possibilities to back into the theoretical premise as the remaining explanation.

slightly more dusk light though.

you said "it wouldn't take much" It would take a lot for that - that should be a clue to the extreme unlikeliness without even touching theory.

The problem with that analysis/method is that it doesn't consider alternate pathways that may also be capable of forcing thermal distribution. It only assesses observations in support of his idea.

with this flow structure aloft? it would take more than God's will actually. It's more apt to say ...what we are looking at is God's will NOT to bring this TC to New England. This has been a stalwart consistent limitation for days and days and model run after model run, all but 100% ... all along, yet for some reason, some of you cannot seem to even see or sense the intuitive reason why it is impossible to bring a TC up to New England with polar jet drilling straight at the region. It's like believing the fake news that it's possible for an ice cream cone to survive a fire hose I guess. We live in an era where scientific advice, let alone learning, are allowably suspended. It's not your fault.

I also add to it... It's meteorological/anecdotal so the exact worth, be that as it may, but I've been observing over the last two decades what appears to be a positive/harmonic environmental/geological feed back mechanism that begins to physically exert ( non-linearity) a retrograding force wrt to the summer ridge positioning. When episodic continental, mid-latitude ridging balloons, it's not given a chance to get to non-Markovian ("quantom memory" favoring future states) aspects, because no sooner...within just shorter days it's already attempting to slip back W-SW under the jet and PHX steals the heat show. So what is the environmental/geological factor: As the western hemispheric winds begin to absorb the backward exertion of the flow, due to western N/A cordillera topography, the C-force turns the air motion right while it is being forced to ascend over said topography. This generates a standing wave ridge like construct, which then couples/constructively interferes with the continental summer heat. Once set up, the thermal wind component than combines with C-force ... bending right, which further genesis' the anticyclonic field at large scales; the whole system tries to all but isolate itself because these factors fantastically compliment one another. Harmonic feedback. This is a synergistic for both heat result, but also en masse physically enhances drying. Because of all this, some years we end up with these "weakness" in the longer-termed geopotential layout E of 100W across the mid latitude continent. This ends up with murky humid daily downpour thunder over eastern America, with big heat in the west... Once or twice, a pattern break sufficiently strong enough may temporarily overcome these background aspects, and threaten to lower Pac N/W heights... -D(PNA) then dislodging the kinetically charged air from the SW ... but, the background tends to overwhelm and yank it back - so to speak. This year we've seen more -EPO/-PNA tandem than the last 5 years. We've also seen more >95 F days at climo sites spanning the OV/NE regions, too. But these murk years are not necessarily cooler years for the OV/NE regions. Nocturnal temperatures are often held up well above normal, such that the total dailies still average comparably large. But we're not talking us... haha Yeah, so there's some additional feedback that tries to sustain aridification that may not be specifically related to cold water along/off the West Coast, too.

yeah.. it's interesting following these atmospheric indices as I do. Yesterday, an early autumn 'shot across the bow' type pattern was coherent in both the numerical data, but also in the synoptic/spatial layouts, from all three ens sources GGEM/GEFS/EPS. I posted about it... that's normal. If your goal is to not materialize a pattern you want, all you have to do is mention it. Boom! wanted pattern summarily breaks heart. This is why you should never tell a woman how you actually feel... No but since then the numerical side of that have pushed a new -PNA/-EPO tandem out there between D10 and 14. Then, the operational runs overnight sort of half committed; the Euro and GFS proper having some suggestion, which fits that tandem. We'll see. It's harder and harder anyway to determine that particular week any given season, when the season tries to pick up more than it can handle and cracks haha. Seriously, CC is seriously f*cking that orderly expression ( in time ) from happening as dependably as it did for grand pappy. We'll get a frost on Sept 10 and then 90 for 3 days on 15th... just sayn'

Heh, how soothing would that be if you were homeless? Luckily, CC will ultimately prevent 4:30 PM heavy snow when it also triggers civilization collapse we won't likely have to suffer the former state of affairs. Not to spark off a moron's subjectivel insufferable debate ... but, as I get older, I'm losing connection to even that nostalgia. I'd just prefer it stayed mild enough all winter to continue engaging in outer low grade athletic activities. Like bike rides. Golf, both disk and stick varieties. Going for runs. Tennis..etc. I'm probably destined to a warmer climate during retirement, provided the shit below doesn't get in the way. Just a few hurdles to overcome ... If I were a billionaire ...I'd build an extra-double top secret compound in the wilderness somewhere, replete with all three: water, wind and solar power generation options. AC/DC converters and state of the art battery capacity is utterly off power-grid. This compound's 15,000 acres would be surrounded by a 30' wall with guard towers, the top perimeter of which has highly sophisticate movement detection and entity identification ...annnnd with precision laser ammo (no bullets) it'd sound like a electrical fly zapper whenever some red neck in tattered rags with fractured words that read something like, 'makin 'merica great aghin' attempts to incur upon the edifice of the wall... Oh, throw bombs over the wall? well...little does anyone know, there's a extra-double, top secret black project in QM that has developed Quantum Interference force field technology. When turned on, it creates a transparent sphere of uncertainty principle; such that anything or object of reality that attempts to move through it, can't, because said objects quantum state ceases to exist. This is precisely calibrated to be on the inner 'last defense' side of the wall... you know, give 'em a chance to give up. To mention, sanitizing/recycling above ground. Need to have an under ground self environmentally sustained/contained storage facility. 20 year's-worth of stored various freeze dried and/or non-BPA canned food stocks for if/when hunting and growing seasons fail ... Ranging over to the typical accoutrement of needed sundries for health. The inside of the living complex has pool, rec room... movie theater, and standard living quarters. Yeah I see myself headed that way ...

Last week of the month may try to evolve warmer ...kind of a newish telecon signal.

5 day heat wave out my way. should be over tomorrow for all.

Oh, it’s pretty clear that history will in time reveal the whole tariff thing, regardless of whatever it is/was espoused as being, was actually just a grift - a grand bilking scheme.

was going to comment on this... yup All major ens-derived, sweeping numerical index changes. Well represented in the spatial depictions, too. A significant overhaul of the hemispheric foot pattern mode. Not sure if that represents the end of summer but ...considering D10 enters the last week of August... modulate for climatology accordingly.

Boy that 00z GFS was an inferno run out there... 06z backed off. There could be a legit (last?) signal after the 20th for some heat but it needs some work. won't get into what that is because no one will read it but 50/50

If the ridge ends up more defined than current guidance vision creating a weakness to draw it N ... a weaker formed Erin could then get left behind - it's lower probability for the time being, but not impossible.

it's not just 'stable' air. There is SAL, and SAL is a micro-physical inhibitor. There can be an unstable sounding ...having lapse rates and so forth. But SAL particles create an over proficient condensation process onto particulate (nano dust) surfaces. Think of it like an 'atmospheric sponge' soaking up the water prior to cloud genesis. Sort of a cartoon metaphor lol. Dry air is another aspect. The tropical instability requires more than just lapse rates for TC engine. WV> 25C wet bulb needs to be maintained.

It would be interesting to compare the interior of Antarctic's atmospheric chemistry/constituencies, against the regions outside during strong +AAO circulation modes persisting.

And actually ... it further elucidates my point when observing that during that same span of time, the N. Hemisphere is much closer to 2023 and 2024. ...So that strikes me pretty hard at this point that including the Antarctic peregrinations is casting an allusion to cooler world. Obviously, the Antarctic is part of this world - but the principle idea is that it's uniquely secluded due to its total geophysical circumstance doesn't reflect what is available to take place anywhere else. It's a 'weighting' concern.