Typhoon Tip

I don't argue this ... but, just the same I'd like to have seen today's set up operated on by diurnal heating ... without the overnight processing event, which stayed safely N of NYC's current heat parade. I agree with that aspect you mentioned an hour ago that we may see a burst of sorts if we suddenly mix out a vaguely coherent lowest layer. Like yesterday ...

uhp 95

94

mm 21.5 C should get one to 39 C if the mixing hgt's to 850 sigma. The adiabat stops at 1000 ( you know this..), 36 C on the skew t log p diagram, but then the 1000 to absolute surface slopes to the right for 2 to 3 C (typically) in a fair expectation. That's about a buck-2 ... when you don't get outflowed overnight causing hard to prove lag holding you down LOL

This is what it's like around here when it comes to tracking big heat I've come to find over the years. It's like the 2026 Red Sox: they always find a way to lose. Then they'll sweep the Yankees in a 4 game series. That's like when we're supposed to be 88 but we get a 97 - amazing but ultimately not amazing. I knew this in my partial wakened state overnight .. that those gentle rains and barely audible thunder rumbles were gently destroying the heat extremes today. Figured

I'm thinking that boat sailed when that outflow came throughout overnight -

Looks like DP crash into the 60s where the Ts are in the mid 90s or approaching that.

For now...here's the winners

I suppose it's possible that those regions unperturbed by overnight scrubbing of the heat staging, like down around the megalopolis ...will cap earlier, and we may be squeeze up as late party guests. Yeah...could I mean it's 92 to 93 prior to noon, which is hot enough. Yesterday we were in the upper 80s ( I think ) around now, and managed a lot of 95 to 97s in a 3 pm surge .. so if we can tack on 7 to 10, will be in 100. interesting

It's nasty but we got screwed if people are enthusiastic about heat trophies. The big kahuna heat is NY Metro to EWR and western L.I.... most NWS sites tucked in there are 98 to 103 at 11:30 am!!! BOOM us...? hot, but pedestrian so far. I really think that weird surviving convection - that by synoptic convention should not have... - sending that outflow overnight basically ruined us for contention in this thing for today. Tomorrow may have a shot with unperturbed overnight heat setting stage better.

Wow (bold) ...they're 88 now

To some degree.. yes. Let's not blame all, but it's a partial albeit increasingly observed state of affairs. That's why telecon prompting mechanisms have been invented, like "RONI", btw. Which stands for Relative Oceanic Nino Index. It is considering the present anomalies surrounding. etc..

Immensely complicated question... The simplest explanation may cross eyes but ... no, it doesn't directly effect that, but does indirectly. lol Typhoons out there have a correlation with winter pattern that is more realized than in the summer. So there's a seasonal constraint on the statistics. In the winter, ... typhoons that "re curve" into the N. Pacific, dump their latent heat into the jet and this curls into the mid Pac ridge, which then can serves to +augment that amplitude, which in turn effects on the orientation of the planetary wave spacing and amplitude down stream over North America. That's the simplest way to put it. If the typhoon does not re curve and goes into the SE Asian continent, it's less clear if/how it's latent heat fluxes into the mid latitude. It's like smearing toxin on one's skin as opposed to a sting that injects the venom directly in as a creepy metaphor. The latter, re curving into the jet/N. Pacific sting, thus makes sense that a more coherent effect on the synoptics is observed. The subtropical jets are indirectly related to all this, by way of complex larger scale wave mechanics. Leave it at that...but when the N Pac ridge is bulging, that tends to improve the polar branch/-EPO phase... this tends to trigger a compensating lowering height field underneath and that can assist sub-tropical jet identity. There has to be a split in the hemisphere gradients for better STJ performance, in general. Where there are two differential axis ( latitudes), steep zone near 30-35N, and then another near the lower Ferrel latitudes. The subtropical jet formulates along the gradient of the 30-35 N, and then runs up polarward to deliver WAA patterns into mid latitude cyclongenetic fields. ... Whilst the polar branch of the westerlies ( what we consider to be the main kahuna jet) formulates along the other steeper gradient of the lower Ferrel... In the heart of winter that's average around 45 or 50 N. But dips, and when it does ...these split hemispheres create the bigger bombs. That's why NINO hemisphere winters, albeit not always as cold as winter geese prefer, tend to generate the more active/higher frequency cyclone traffic. This whole model, however, is getting harder and harder to cleanly differentiate in observation, as the ongoing CC is also altering circulation manifolds. We've seen NINO-esque circulation motifs during NINAs and vice versa, do to these changes, with more frequency. This is making the distinctions less clean ... and consequently, some aberrant pattern correlations have been observed. In the summer, the planetary wave spacing becomes less coherent with more eddy breakaways and pattern distinctions uncoupled to the larger known teleconnector pathways. This is because the wave lengths of Long Waves have shrunk, because of a homogenized - or approaching the same state - gradients between the Ferrel and subtropical latitudes. So the typhoon antics of the western Pac are less important to this overall concept because there's no longer the same machinery.

90 at Shirley right next door, but 88/73 here at 10am. Some 90 .. 91 sprinkled in a sea of 87 to 89s Solid recovery out of the overnight outflow wash

Those a bit more familiar with far NNE climo ... is 82 at 8:50 am impressive for CAR, ME. I'm assuming so.. but how much.

Okay, so as expected, ...90 at Logan per 9:30 ob ...well, 9:20 to be precise. Westborough ob leaped to 89. **86 now at FIT is a 10 minute 4 deg improvement - do that a couple more times and that becomes an event... (EDIT: they had a 50 minute outage so never mind) May see 90 at downtown ORH and FIT by 10; given the last hours d(T)/dt and assuming that continues.

86 at Sanford ME's impressive for 9:15

Bit of a bounce as we approach 9:30 ... 85's common. 88 downtown ORH matches Logan, which I believe will breach 90 by 10 as they've been sitting under this rising saline torch of a sun bathed in an ideal WNW light wind for the last half hour... Still some lingering upper 70s in the deep outflow tainted interior though.

Valid point ... the 9 by 9 was a Boston market thing at WHDH with Harv' ..but I heard Dick Albert over on ABC/Channel 5 Boston and Barry on Channel 4 also use that expression in the early 1990s - jesus... you wonder if all adages older than 300,000 years need to be re-evaluated, which come think about it ... maybe that's true due to CC anyway. Anyway, that fits what you suspect there, about the HFD-BOS region. Y'all up there's more of a pseudo alpine climo anyway. 10 after 10's up next. By the way... I noticed a lot of sites were struggling in the 91 range yesterday, and unilaterally ... many of them leaped to 95 to even few 97's at around 3pm, all at once. So yeah..there's no rule that these things have to be very linear. The purpose of today's tedious Asperger obsession is to test these adages.

There's some mid 80s dappled around but most sites are just 80..81 now... still not good enough for 90 by 90. Logan's 88 though. The interior ... the more I look at this, they were hobbled by a wet outflow overnight and will need to work extra hard over the next hour

Not rising as fast as one might expect for the advertisement - "90 by 9 am" is reasonable index finger method, and we're not going to make that. some 82's around but most sites are just 79 - with only 20 minutes of cooking time, it doesn't seem 90 as average site temperature by 9 am is very realistic. There is another adage that works statistically, though. "10 by 10" ... so we'll see where we are at that time. This could be a situation where that outflow stuff overnight swept through and processed out our launch pad - so we may just need the extra hour of process time to "catch up" to where we would have been if that did not take place. It's hard to run a historic high jump heat dunk day when the night before gets it's legs kicked out. It's going to be mid 90s T/ 70billion DP one way or the other so it's really all just for show beyond that combination of hell, anyway. Hell, tomorrow could end up being the winner in this stretch - that is, if high suppressing ridge heights do what they are physically supposed to do this time and actually not allow that kind of thing from timing that way. I did think that sweep through was a bit of anomaly for where we were with those +d(g)'s ...but, it might also be why that thing weakened pretty dramatically as it tried to get into a lower latitude- on the edge. But enough to cripple the morning T rise by that much. Tonight we are probably doing the 80+ in urbania. So we'll have the launch pad preserved. Even though some metrics are actually easing off by tomorrow, that better non-Markovian set up could offset and maybe we find ourselves with more of Levitra result.

Saturday afternoon with frontal sag ..

This/these are becoming seemingly perfunctory by now but ... https://phys.org/news/2026-07-england-warmest-june-met-office.html

So Wiz. Check out that New York activity? That’s right where the NAM had that. Convective initialization ftw

About identical here except we're 72 dp .. but it's nuts either way - particularly when knowing our climatology would have this normally be the apex day of any seasonal heat wave - which this is clearly something special when today is the low ball day. 103 and 100 back to back is within reach ... I realize the safe bets a couple of 99ers but synoptically... could send this toward the hottest 2-day thermal aggregate ever, looking tomorrow thru Friday. We'll have to see. NAM 18z suggestion at LGA and probably BOS: (103 + 84 + 100)/3 = 95.67 ... I bet you'd be hard pressed to find that historically. If so ... this is probably top 3