Typhoon Tip

This 06z mean is a bit of a reposition W compared to the prior 00z cycle. Along with the spread ( in particular) opening up with more members closer to the coast, does lean more ominous.. 06z EPS mean. Some deep members there and more of them pulling/morphing the pressure pattern w-nw tends to flag where the correction wants to go, an aspect that has been noted when using ens means prior to other events in storm climo

heh... the crack addict will always pack the higher dose

This mean is a bit of a reposition W. Along with the spread ( in particular) opening up with more members closer to the coast, does lean more ominous.. 06z EPS mean. Some deep members there and more of them pulling/morphing the pressure pattern w-nw tends to flag where the correction wants to go, an aspect that has been noted when using ens means prior to other events in climo

okay

Just closer and with a bigger envelope.

Why? it's not that infallible I'll just remind folks ... these AI versions did at D6 or 7, pimp out yesterday's missed system, too. I think there's some recency scope bias going on and these tool reps are benefiting from it. We're turning them into celebrities prematurely? Edit: I was thinking of the end January fiasco -

heh... yeah. That ukmet 00z run. Probably the fastest total tropospheric depth differential I've ever seen, certainly in that region. And it's not from a core arrival. It's cyclogenic feedback produced! It's imploding with the mid level height core just E of NJ at a rate seldom seen - somewhere in the range of 30 dm in 12 hours. That's a hyperbomb

The leap from the 00z's AI ECM depiction to what it did in the 06z ... yee gads!

Decent Miller B exemplified by the 06z AI GFS version... whether this happens or not, this is a run-way model

PRO: EPS mean being more aggressive than the operational version at this range is typically a red flag .. CON: however, to the straw man, having the ens mean more impressive than operational was also prevalent at this sort of range prior to the end January phantom bomb too. It didn't end well for the ensembles. Particularly in the EPS back then. CON: If it were not for the -PNA canvas I'd have less issue with this has value. PRO: The 00z CMC ensembles being hugely more bullish than the prior 12z mean is. PRO: While the 00z GEFs were still not very interested, the 06z made a significant step toward more concern. I don't think that's a trivial or unimportant. PRO: Sneaky aspect about the pattern foot ... the flow is both progressive, while relaxed in gradient. Of the two, the latter is a bigger positive than the former takes away. It's interesting ( actually ) to see that concurrent physical state in the field, but there is in fact less 60N to 35 N ambient gradient, which allows for more timely/delicate wave harmonics to get set up. This whole system seems to be nested in that favorable temporal dimension ... any later in date or early, it doesn't avail of that and ends up probably sheared/stretched and annoying. CON: Seasonal dearth of coastal storm types. This doesn't intrinsically instruct this thing for or against occurring, but the consistent no-gos do suggest something's going on that is preventative - identifying what that is, and if it is less effective in this case would be interesting. Lastly ... kind of a PRO. The hemispheric PV is either explicitly anchored, or implicitly attempting to do so, depending on guidance sourced and cycle/run, on our side of the NH. This is also somewhat sneaky and unnoticed, but it matters because if it were situated over on the other side while a very robust -PNA ... ongoing, we probably don't have any of this in the first place. 50/50... We could certainly see a strong system miss, or impact.

well, those should count. coastal's a coastal

well... snow or not, there's been no report at all this year, that I can recall anyway

Has there ever been a winter, end to end, with 0 coastals? I think we had a couple rainy coastals, tho unremarkable, last autumn. But since November say. zippo

Fire up a thread ...

There is an interesting relative max in the PNA that takes place 23-26th; it's nested in the midst of an ongoing submerged PNA. It's like a sub-surface sea mount with a buoy blinker to warn passing ships. Ha There's some other everyday reasons to suspect less coastal crawling big dawg solutions are favored, but that bold aspect about the zonal/W-E is big correction lean that's a pretty big one. Pig solutions at this D7-10 range also tend to lose amplitude as they are relayed inward in time. That's more than less an ongoing operational weather forecasting application aspect. But combining that with the former ... I tell you what, it would be fun ironic if this one fought off all those reason and worked out for the better. There is still the relative PNA spike.

That's the day before the April Fools Day massacre, 1997 sorry

they're not quite the same, but end up in the same sensible weather neighborhood.. The ICON's movie reminds me of this guy -

The 23/24 system could have some tepid support in a relative sense. On whole, very negative PNA through the entire period, doesn't normally inspire wildly spun up and anchored coastals. Certainly ... during a season where we've observed 0 productivity in coastals; persistence and trend begs to differ. Ha. However nested within, there is still a 2 to 3 day relative maxim in there. It would not be altogether crazy to observe a system moving through at that time Kind of with Ray on that... sub 980 mb lows tip-toeing around the coast line as though it were the work of some cryo-dystopian artist's white dream ...that's really is not what that signal is, however. It's 7+ days away still. There's time for the general circulation mode to alter enough - even idiosyncratically helps. But the problem with a very negative PNA is that the W-E coordinate is the correction vector. It's very heavily/statistically correlated. So it's like yeah ... a system slips through the medium, but it's favored to be more middling in amplitude, moving fast along a more E trajectory.

Talk about threading a needle ... goodness

Different wave spacing/event mechanism - when you say "also" it kinda sorta sounds like "same", whether you meant that or not. So ... just sayn' It matters, because the CMC in fact has nothing from the same prospect that the GFS designed.

yeah... been awhile since we've seen a 2" basin wide rain event into a foot of dying snow

I have... By Euro I had 'Euro product suite' in mind.

I've noticed that since these late Feb aspects have begun to emerge ... the GFS heredity of products overall are less shy about committing to spring. The Euro is trying to sell eternal storm and cold. The index/numerics of either ensemble means don't statistically support what the operational Euros have been trying to sell. Just cautioning folks... prepare to be disappointed. The upshot? if you are not, then there was no risk. it's possible the GFS is too warm, but... it has March and improving sun and CC and what have you backing the indexes, all of which suggesting otherwise.

I don't have a problem with Euro's cyclone bombing on the 23rd because it doesn't actually hit anyone. That's the other tenor of the season. Anti-coastal coagulant

Approaching 30" is just a "little" over doing it so you'd be willing to trim that back, huh haha lord