Typhoon Tip

Safe really until the 8th … We exit the solar min and enters the solar transition season on that date. But it’s slow at first … the sun feels more noticeably warmer approaching the 20th+ But it will come fast. Just like in the end of July you think you have a lot of summer and you turn around and it’s September 6. that’s why I like my seasons front loaded… Cold and snow loaded if you can early on and then just give it up when the solar transition season start. Same thing in summer with all my heat from May and June…July 20. Altho caveat because golf gets nice in Sept. October November are just boring to me.Don’t get me started about hell on earth, April. If April could ever be a nice month - Obviously these are all pipe dreams though.

Too much energy expended in the semantics of the "SWFE" when the term never should have been invented in the first place. Meteorology already defines this type of precipitation cause by isentropic lift. That's all it is. SWFE is just overrunning, because the warm air outpaces the retreat of cold air, and thus... is forced over it. The other thing is that it is not that uncommon for isentropic events to morph into coastals. Sometimes there's a lull as the IB moves off, then the coastal gets going. Sometimes the transition is smoother... it's all kind of variant. We'll see what happens tomorrow but it looks on the PP layout like a coastal that is moving too fast to really clip on the way out. So we end up with a cough CCB decay ...

S/BR 1/4 mi vis 6F 8"

1/3 mi vis 7.25” S at the moment

People should put down the models and just like enjoy this?

S 4.25” est vis 1/3 mi 5F

Same here ... it's 'almost' S+ during a couple different intervals over the last two hours, but it quickly recedes back to a pedestrian S fall rate. Vis est 1/2 mi ... flirting with 1/4 mi when they occurred. Be that as it may, just under 4" here, so as expected ...accumulation is quite efficient in this cold air.

S/S+ est vis 1/4 mi 2.75" 6 F

Clearly a CF dump axis from PWM to ORH there... The other max is terrain enhancing.. whether that actually happens, notwithstanding

Better growth coming down now. Instead of cryo fog-, it's S- with actual discernible aggregates, albeit on the small side

I just keep musing tongue-in-cheek over how 6 days ago, we were looking at this continental mauler storm affecitng everywhere but here... Then, 6 days later... while it certainly is affecting a lot of the country, it actually appears to want to max where it was 0, six days ago - squarely right here in SNE that's an interesting model saga

There's an interesting phenomenon going on amid the Arctic domain right now associated with that crazy -AO depth ... which I suspect very few if anyone at all in here is aware. There's registering of record warmth going on up there. Quite highly correlated to -AO index modal states: it is warm ( relative to climo, of course!) up there, and colder at middle latitudes. This cold outbreak was be-a-utifully relayed from that crashing -AO, circuited through a -EPO...now, the EPO collapses and relays into the +PNA. The storms should be line up...but the models are taking a coffee break on seeing much...different issue/digression. In the meantime, some station up there...I'll try to find it, but in the midst of the 24 hour darkness, close to the N pole, in January, they were 36F ... That's like us being 122 in July.

heh right. You know, it seems unjust, or out of place, doesn't it. But I've seen huge < 10 hour turn around enough times that I've just come to stop really associating the scalar temperatures at onset with any kind of presumption. I've outlined the following event before. It's an extreme case, but in Jan 1994 we had a day dawn at 9 F throughout NE Mass... There were a few renegade flakes flitting down under the street lamps while the morning's ambiance of winter blue-gray twilight surrounded. By noon it was 24 with light IP... By 2 pm, light freezing rain at 29. By 4 pm, 36 with the evening dusky sky having transformed into then fast moving streets of clouds, S to N.. In a whoosh, front's through and by 6:30pm, it was 60 F with tree leaning monster S gusts. Now, this bears 0 synoptic relevancy to that. Different universe of events, entirely. However, the principle of believing scalar temperature means jack shit, is a very good one to remember. Haha. To this day, I really don't give a ratz ass what the temperature at the onset of x-y-z. I just understand what the chances are for things to happen after the fact, and go with it.

Vis est 2 mi; steady S-; very very small "micro aggregates". 6 F

Yeah... seems a little hard to believe, given the heavy suggestion by the indices through the first third of the Feb, but excluding the AI types all models carry nothing - However, you know a 15 to 20" regional snow bomb ... We can probably count on one hand over the last 200 years of weather history and yore, the number of times multiple 20" fell less than 10 days apart. I guess just based on that, which admittedly is operationally meaningless for deterministic weather forecasting in the dailies/now - more of a principle argument. We really shouldn't get a storm very soon anyone unless it's pedestrian and not asking the atmosphere to load up with more than Earth can provide in too short a turn around - the main reason why that is probably all true.. We'll see... lacking parameters doesn't appear to be the issue, though. The local hemisphere is in a higher than normal energetic regime. It may just be that we're stuck with ton of neggy interference. Because from orbit, it doesn't seem like there's a dearth of possibility when in a flexing +PNA, 570 dm thickness lurking near Miami, while it remains cold/cold enough in the OV, either. Lot's to consider

yeah, but the storm is going to wildly bust on the short duration side given to how fast it's accelerated, huh

That's why my jack for this is like Danvers down to Concord Ma... When those bands get on shore ... perhaps 5-7" of impossible to entangle OES bursting will be taking place underneath an already dense falling shield of micro-aggregates. Add that to the synoptic signal...

Heh... crazy having this be the antecedence to any storm. Hearkens to the rareness of this whole thing

Incredible Is 0ZNAM has even higher QPF That’s 6 consecutive model cycles in a row with the QPF growing on every run I’ve seen Never seen that Not sure what it means but… Probably a lot of fuckin snow I’m guessin 1.7 for Logan At 17 to 1 ratio that’s about 26 inches of snow. Probably approaching hypostatic balance before it can that tall; being that fluffy or snow collapses in on itself at a lower weight … and I’m not sure why this font’s so big

Yeah, I get it. I mean 18 1921. They’re all just dates to me ha ha ha. once you get over 15, it doesn’t matter

That would be something, 24 inches… More power to ya Ray; I think that’s a little pricey though 24 inches is just about the cut off for ‘tenting’ That’s when cars start to look like domes.

NAMed by the Nw bias?

Dec '81 ... I moved to New England in the summer of '83. Please provide some background ? dates and such ... I'll look that up in the NCEP charts Library. In any event, it's really centered around the 1st, give or take, then again out toward the 7th. But hell... just give the model's credit for picking "some"thing up at all. Geesh. It's like they seeded the models with anti-storm coagulant. The models are like trying to gaslight us into believing that rocket fuel isn't flammable -

actually I think thought they touched 26 and change Feb 2003? ..I coulda swore. I know the president's day storm did 27.5 total, not sure about the 24 hour part

heh... just thinkn' the history of this season and the annulled whining and bitching about low snow this and that relative to this and that, when considering all this cold and on and on with it. Can you imagine this working out? the irony being, if somehow the 30/01/02 system were to then punch through obscurity and actually strike... we go from ^ to a snow removal problem at a regional scope and scale. there's also a vague non-zero potential emerging for the 6/7/8, too.