Typhoon Tip

84 ... feels meaner

yeah... I wasn't sure. It just looked too much. I couldn't find any surrounding sites that matched that amount. The other aspect ... that FIT site's in a bowl. ...figuratively speaking. It's like the lowest spot around that immediate countryside. Winds being so light at the regional scope doesn't lend to scouring out at 2am but who knows. Having said that ... FIT has always appeared right to me in the past - not a lot of history of odd ball numbers, either. 'c'mon FIT! what are ya doin' to me' Sterling 7 or so miles away, S along 91 around the same time FIT had it's 16 point bump Weather conditions for: EW4324 Sterling, MA (APRSWXNET/CWOP - BOX) Elev: 636.75 ft; Lat/Lon: 42.43967/-71.78417 May 19, 3:00 am 72 63 74 SW 1G4 1017.60 29.38 30.07 0 -- 0.00 0.00 May 19, 2:54 am 72 63 73 SSW 2G6 1017.60 29.38 30.07 0 -- 0.00 0.00 May 19, 2:45 am 72 63 74 SW 2G5 1017.60 29.38 30.07 0 -- 0.00 0.00 May 19, 2:36 am 72 63 74 SSW 2G5 1017.94 29.39 30.08 0 -- 0.00 0.00 May 19, 2:29 am 72 63 73 SW 2G4 1017.94 29.39 30.08 0 -- 0.00 0.00 May 19, 2:18 am 72 63 74 SW 2G8 1018.27 29.40 30.09 0 -- 0.00 0.00 May 19, 2:09 am 72 63 74 SW 1G5 1018.27 29.40 30.09 0 -- 0.00 0.00 May 19, 2:02 am 71 62 74 SSW 1G5 1018.32 29.40 30.09 0 -- 0.00 0.00 May 19, 1:54 am 71 62 74 WSW 1G6 1018.32 29.40 30.09 0 -- 0.00 0.00 May 19, 1:47 am 71 62 74 WSW 1G4 1018.32 29.40 30.09 0 -- 0.00 0.00 May 19, 1:36 am 71 62 74 SW 1G4 1018.32 29.40 30.09 0 -- 0.00 0.00 May 19, 1:29 am 71 62 74 SSW 1G3 1018.32 29.40 30.09 0 -- 0.00 0.00

heh... we did not... I was 61 until twilight glow ... 81 now

Heh... probably just the operation run dance.

I think he's referring to the 00z operational GFS ? It pretty much stalls it all S and never gets QPF in here. 6z was more pessimistic. Euro trended tho... It seems the blend of the operational runs is less overall, and with that gyre over the Maritime of Canada having that polar jet around the SW side it does offer an argument to suppress. It's an interesting battle with that. If that vortex up there weakens the shits flood in. The other aspect ...it seems the whole body of the schmootz rising up in latitude is warm frontal more than cyclonic. It'll have that typical book-end fake low on the west end of it as usual but it's mostly just the cool air from Wed fropa having over exceeding the hemispheric signal, so ...said signal reasserts by rising back over the top enough to crank the weekend. Anyway, Euro at least hints at saving Saturday. Prior runs had that day miserable by 10am down there in CT and checked out by 2 up here. If it holds off just another 10 miles you're golden.

Yeah I've noticed it's been speeding up ... Looks like it's thru western NE by noon.

I'm not sure the FIT one is right. There is/was a warm boundary sort of washing out overnight, but at 1:35 am that site was 61 F like everywhere around it within 10 clicks, then ...2:15 am it's 77. Seems a bit handsome for that hour of the night. I checked some of the surrounding NWS tweener sites and they did show a modest indication for some sort of warmth penetrating the sfc but not 15 to 17 worth - not even close to that amount. Not sure. Seems suss

Borderline big heat tomorrow. As expected ... headlines now flying. Prooobably 94 to 95? 95+ is sort of the "unofficial" "big heat" criteria. But it probably really should go by the HI values.

Chuck, I just dropped this over in the ENSO thread because I believe that's relevant -

Folks may have some issue fatigue but ...too bad. We are currently crossing a date-relative historic max in the global mean temperature. This curve looks disconcerting, particularly when considering A, the quadratures are all bursting at the same time: SH/NH, Arctic/Antarctic, and Tropics. B, the last time Earth chose spring as the time of year to to flip the ENSO scrip, - to +, the whole planet did something not seen ever before: rose almost a half deg C within a two month span of time. Not sure if magnitude of ENSO means anything to that? - but I'll tell ya, it doesn't intuitively 'feel' very comforting seeing the environmental cues going so massive with the ensuing +ENSO state.

Folks may have some issue fatigue but ...too bad. We are currently crossing a date-relative historic max in the global mean temperature. This curve looks disconcerting, particularly when considering the quadratures are all bursting at the same time: SH/NH, Arctic/Antarctic, and Tropics.

I suspect we get heat advisories added in the springfield to HFD and also metrowest of Boston for tomorrow. The 2ms appear under cooked for the fact that the 850 mb will be reached as the mixing depth and I'm seeing 19C at that level on some of this guidance. All but compelled to add 2 point bump out of respect for superb heating combined with "non-Markovian" feedback, no less.

Welp .. 75 here as we pass into the 10am hr "10 after 10" puts us in the 80s ... but being on the north side of a sag front that has observable site winds coming off the ocean. That says no...but, temps rising unimpeded as trend says yes. Minor competing signals there. I guess the wind being very light, in the 10kt range may not be enough. It's like you could work it out mathematically. Determine what the necessary E wind strength has to be during the solar max in order to overcome diurnal heating. I bet 10 kts isn't enough? Something like that. The shallow boundary is already apparently coming back as a warm front, according to WPC ... the previous update had this as a cool front where it is now warm in CT. I guess the late high T surge idea of the NAM has legs.

Ho man. The wonder of weather, snuffed out. we joke but there will be a weather modification future. It's just too intuitively easy to see that. Quantum Computing is basically going to expose at some point, how to force "the quantum computing of the cosmos" - so to speak. That is, in any future where human tech does not stop the the future from taking place before getting there - oh yeah..that. I mean just recall synoptic II and learning how/why chaos will never allow modeling to be very precise beyond whenever. Can't stop the spontaneity of emerging future feedbacks blah blah the prediction unavoidably gets corrupted. Well, the easy antidote is ...don't try to predict that then. Control it. It seems quantum scale perturbation is a realm where actual Quantum Computing might be uniquely adapted to handle. Control being apropos. Seems that way anywho

About as many times as it actually happens j/k. yeah who knows. There's nothing wrong with commiserating the modles

...that'd be an interesting war -tech. Imagine a distant future world where weather modification replaced forecasting. Other than ruining this pastime ... maybe such a realm would include the WMD, Weather Machine of Destruction that throws big storm bombs at enemies. I dunno, where the hell is the end goal of Quantum Computing and what does that look like?

Not that you asked 'how' but what's happening in those guidance formulations is something more akin to the 00z GFS' aggressively suppressed version overall. BN, but dry results. Which ...I'd take that as a compromise over a wet dildo flogging as though the Canadian and European forecast offices conspired and directly parameterized their models to specifically target and destroy Mem Weekend for joy destruction. haha I guess for now... solace in the notion that it's 120+ hours away so maybe the shits models runs'll change.

Yeah and I'm not predicting a torpedoed summer per se. Just annoyed by it, because I don't like BN weather in late spring and summer heh ... kind of a snarky post. But it does appear the polar jet is unusually strong and guiding the pattern still as we get pretty damn late in the spring here. If I were capable of completely divorcing personal druthers from it all, I guess it's gotta be interesting to have that taking place in +d(Climate)

Something's off... these higher res model types look too warm given Esty beasties off glacial guts water. They're all doing this sort of look by 18z tho. huh

Wasn't even a BD ... It was a N-S sag front. But I mentioned this yesterday. May not be as warm in the E. Do the temps still in the 60s E of 95 and 70s E of ORH for a while..? Winds are light behind this front and there's not a whole helluva lot of actual cold transport with that. Shallow layer... Sun could eat it up by lunch, but with the winds in situ E and ENE already, I'm just wondering if the cold ocean anomaly might not be in the MOS/machine coverage very well. Day's long tho. The NAM is insisting the boundary collapses back NE, showing a sfc SW wind burst at Logan in the 21 to 24hr period of early evening. Late high for eastern zones.

I wonder if the polar jet is just going to continue careening straight through to the fall for fuck's sake it won't stop. So this is turning into just another prick tease warm up - yet again. At least it's more than a single day I suppose. But that's an October circulation ordeal after the front Thu/Fri. Then the weekend's obliterated by cold overrunning with a high banked N. F grade for being warm season respective.

Not worth a conversation once you get these compressors installed… Microclimate your house with mini splits to switch between as needed and be done with it. No conversation required. not getting dragged into, but I will say it’s odd. You guys spend so much time worried about whether other people manage their thermal aversions.

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NAM is BDing NE/E coastal zones tomorrow. Not sure I'm surprised or think that's necessarily wrong given to the fact that this extended arm of the warm boundary is actually a stationary boundary with a slightly elevated +PP in the GOM. The deep layer wants to erode it back NE as it comes but given to the positive static stability/density argument, it's not unfounded to have that get into the 495 region ... It may also collapse back E and send the old 6:15 pm high temperature to Logan as an outside shot too. West of 495 looks quite warm. Tuesday has 30C in the T1 layer of the NAM grid on a WSW flow, 850s of 17+C and < 60% ceiling RH ... that's a hugely above normal day for this time of year. Probable 2m Ts in the 94 range ...tickling big heat numbers. Newark NJ/metro west of NYC get it done on this run

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