Typhoon Tip

Leaf blizzard incoming....

ha, new NAM's all the way down to just .27 at Logan from this

This is a very linear approach so tfwiw - but to help elucidate the concern in using 2013 as analog, let's look at the 2013 WPO, and compare it to recency. Below on the left is the 2013-2014 WPO ( provided by CPC), and on the right, 2024-present 2013 1 0.07 2024 3 0.97 2013 2 1.49 2024 4 0.73 2013 3 0.59 2024 5 -0.27 2013 4 -1.86 2024 6 -1.29 2013 5 -1.13 2024 7 -0.77 2013 6 -0.47 2024 8 1.06 2013 7 -0.88 2024 9 1.38 2013 8 -0.17 2024 10 0.91 2013 9 1.93 2024 11 -0.20 2013 10 -0.09 2024 12 -0.33 2013 11 -0.04 2025 1 1.02 2013 12 -2.01 2025 2 0.32 2014 1 0.54 2025 3 0.77 2014 2 -1.37 2025 4 -0.83 2014 3 -0.43 2025 5 -0.49 2014 4 -1.36 2025 6 1.27 2014 5 -0.85 2025 7 -0.58 2014 6 -0.30 2025 8 -0.31 2014 7 -1.63 2025 9 1.22 2014 8 -0.77 2014 9 -1.23 2014 10 -0.32 2014 11 0.13 2014 12 -0.13 graphically ... What sticks out is that the WPO was predominately negative in the 2013-2014 period, but has been predominately positive lately. That particular index is quite important as it loads the Pacific ... We can root it ultimately back to Asia for that matter. All that, and also feed-backs (constructive or destructive interference ) from the MJO frequency... which also has at least a say in the ENSO distribution... Quagmire that ultimately giggidies or glorifies our winter tendencies over N/A. But, that is a big difference in that particularly circulation mode/manifold comparing back whence to now ... So it really - for me - adds to the uncertainty if not doubt.

Yeah this frontal system isn't going to commit to a coastal until very late, too late to really be a coastal for SNE and points down the EC. Appears there's a some commitment to doing so up along the Maine coast, ...even gets interesting up in eastern Quebec. But the overall belated behavior makes this more of an occluded and quick transition through inclement conditions sometime this evening. In fact, it may be dry by 6z and just west windy with falling temps tomorrow. Boring and pedestrian and utterly normal for the 2nd worst time of the year behind the god-forsaken April misery - altho, in fairness... Aprils seem to have been improving in recent decade but anecdotal. Lol. Couple aspects. This system lacked antecedent cold air. The preceding d(indexes) liked this period for a coastal - the fact that that it probably does commit and redevelop and deepen in time to clip D.E.M. with NE/rains ... is probably at least a gyp verification on that... But, if this had been colder, than the primary would not have wound up and occluded so fast, collocated with the trough so far west. We end up with a triple point some 1100 km away around Cape Cod. The actual 500 mb wave spacing moves the wind max SE of ISP ... in the past, with cold air, the primary can't penetrate and the new low happens sooner where there's less resistance along farther SE and the whole thing feeds-back on the east position. It's balancing q-g forcing against lowering viscosity/boundary layer resistance. Not enough of the latter and the low ends up purely under the q-g/omega and through NY she goes. The other aspect is the modeling attenuation. It's all but dependable that some percentage of total amplitude out beyond D6 or 7 ... disappeared when just about anything in consideration arrives inside 72 hours. All the models do this. I still don't definitively know exactly why that is (tho some ideas... ) but it's rather dependable. This system did appear to attenuate some as it came into shorter range.

The 2025 rendition of the warm Pacific may signify something else. Not directing this at you, per se, but to the general audience. The warm Pacific "blob" as it's called is not forcing patterns - nor subsequently constructing the winter pattern biases. The blob exists due to a long duration applied wind stresses, distributing and redistributing warm surface mass in the ongoing quasi-coupled atmospheric-oceanic system. That forcing disributes warmth vs upwelling and cooling ..etc, over time, and it is a shallow thermal distribution response ( SSTs ). We've spent time explaining this in the past, and to the same group of individuals that frequent this social media ... but given some time ... we're back to reading posts that sound like the blob is going to cause the winter pattern? - false if that's the thinking. What needs to be done is a study that correlates the blob occurrences in both space, time, and amplitude, against the preceding hemisphere's synoptic footprint. It's far in a way more likely that 2013's Pacific thermal layout/phenomenon is connected to a pattern that was going on, and led to both: creating the blob, while also ensuing the Chicago record cold that winter. The pattern created both. Not the other way around. That said, there may be some predictive usefulness in using the warm vs cool Pacific distribution whence any such correlation can be assessed. In 2025, the Pacific looks similar to 2013 - which means, given the above facets, there has likely been similarities in the distribution of surface oceanic stressing patterns to date. But here's the problem: Does it persist? That's the key question. Unfortunately, nothing about 2013 vs 2025 predicts that very clearly. Having nothing else to really go on at that point, ...yeah, it's not unreasonable to look for that persistence - but there really shouldn't be any presumption there, either. For one, different synoptic variances may lend to similar distributions, where given both warm years, one variance lends to a 2013's winter pattern, but the other does not. So if-so variances would also need to be defined.

Relative to what ? I mean it just seems we're floating a +2 as our "cold" days ... I think Friday morning will T burst in the under belly prior to CAA late in the day, just adding...

I've heard of geese up near 28 K feet but I think that's about the limit ( also..). I mean, those are not only idiot-hoaxer sized like you said, but they'd also be flying at an altitude where there's almost no air - certainly not enough to float bird when birds don't travel at the 600 mph it would require to generate lift under their wings. But who knows what the real source of that is... it could have been intended for art, and then some other ass-clown decided to use it for whatever. At the end of this, nothing that "originates" in social media can be trusted, ever.

looks fake for obvious reasons actually

Perhaps during peak periods there are less overall hurricanes, but more Cat 5's (?)" that was gonna be my knee jerk guess, yeah. In other words, occurrence counts of TCs ( in general) per year may be well correlated, but category 5s may require a broader set of favorable parameters. Not that anyone asked but ... I've wondered in the past if these upper tier TC frequencies are more endemic to this particular micro geological span of time. They will tend to become less when/if the atmospheric thermodynamic rest state catches up to the oceanic heat phenomenon - if/when that happens. TC mechanics require a thermodynamic initial state, from the quasi oceanic-atmospheric coupling at the bottom to the way the curve is all the way up to 100 mb. If the bulk troposphere sounding was to modulate associated with CC, that may have an impact on the vitality of these storm engines - later generations... But for now, we have hotter than normal OHC underneath a TC viable sounding and that's a powderkeg

and here we've been jammed up with a -NAO (western limb, no less - ) for over 10 days... wait until the wind ever comes back around to the SW, huh

It appears some cold dawns are all we're going to get out of this -NAO

God I hope this happens

ping pong balls of objective reality off the brick of denialism

I’m talking about wholesale local hemisphere

No in between in this case. Either the GFS is onto something, or, NCEPs got some splainin’ to do

I don’t think the reduction of sulfites factored. The restriction set in after that happened

Kinda interesting. Not sure if there's any actual predictive usefulness to this philosophy outlined below, but could we be setting up 2026 as another ...holy shit, didn't see that comin' global leap in temperature? This is the current winter escape curve in the southern hemisphere ( provided by https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/?dm_id=sh ). It's presently the warmest October on record down there? That's equivalent to late April up here. So then heading through their "April" and "May" ...when solar really is accelerating ... where is this curve destined? (dark rust) Intuitively/simple additive thinking might be setting up a high launch pad for the world, whence the N. Hem. spring of 2026 starts dumping in its typically warm quota ( due to having greater land integral).. The ongoing tendency that our immediately ensuing winter will end up above normal overall (not compensating in the averaging) notwithstanding. Just some wondering here -

echoing the general sentiment... but, TC entanglement was never likely. It was in fact unlikely (... but even a long shot can give the addicts a dopamine pop. Ha ha). The emerging consensus explains why that is. No issues with letting that go. With that said, there is still a signal for an EC impact/ Nor'easter, regardless of those noisy GGEM solutions. Mainly upper M/A and NE this go. In fact, the GGEM got hugely distracted somehow and ventured off from ... every form of modelling technology I can find last night and isn't used. Wildly divorced from consensus. Meanwhile, the GFS and Euro being well below 980 mb under deep forcing kinematics, fits both ens means, and the numerical telecon deltas. Circumstantially, whilst there's lingering +PP hanging over N of Maine like that. Heh, bit of a high surf/coastal flood enthusiasts 'wet' dream (see what I did there) Also, a lot of rain over terrain enhancing along the inevitable CCB axis. Kind of a 'scary' setting for Halloween

https://phys.org/news/2025-10-overshooting-15c-climate-inevitable-chief.html

12z GEFs continues the trend to increase anomaly settling into the M/A ... Here's the 180 hour regardless of whether there's a fusion of TC or TC guts into this scenario ...that's an important coastal signal on its own.

seriously tho...that GGEM solution is exactly what we were discussing early about the hybrid and/or fusion scenario being possible given that ..compendium of indicators. See? all you have to do when in ennui is bitch and complain about it -

I beat y'all to that ha

This is precariously close to a capture in this 12z GGEM solution ( D7 ).... an overall structural improving suggestion comparing the 00z run from last night.

can you imagine Narragansett Bay .... ho man

I don't think you did... I mean, there's a non-zero chance that thing gets sucked into ...whatever the Euro's selling with that -NAO trough. This becomes a general Met concern Which, by the way folks ... -NAOs, particularly those over the western limb of the domain, which this 10 day period is exerting, is a correlation found with TCs ( in general ..) affecting the EC. I'm not fully convinced that some sort of hybrid or fusion deal can't evolve. Low probability, but it's not outside the envelope, either It's numerically/telecon Sandy like in some ways... but not exactly modeled as an analog in the synoptic handling at this time. As far as the upper tier category stuff... my intuition's telling me pump the breaks on that with the hostility in the region, and the fact that a trough pulling it out of the CAG region may induce that motion prior to the TC availing of superior deep layer circulation mode. The GFS has a fuller integrated TC and that's why it's initiating that escape so fast. The Euro apparently keeps it less coupled to the mid and u/a, so it drifts west and then gets a chancy window to RI ... I put that lower probability. But, I don't give a ratz ass about being wrong, either. ha Just the way I see.