Typhoon Tip

i actually suggest it is useful to do that - not just a bias evidence. i was just smirking that we've been low-balling if not failing heat since last november really. i've actually been seeing evidence of winter 'structure' to the super synoptic behavior, just doing so at 30 to 40 dm higher. weirdly long wave lengths and useful pna prognostics is not very summer like, so we get what we get from that. try to spare the long winded digression ( no pun intended) but the fast flow associated with blazing equatorial and sub-equatorial heights would be the most suspect factor in keeping the jet alive due to +d(gz) at mid and upper latitudes... anyway, in deference to that being the case ... i believe these odd-ball cold lobes in ontario like these long range gfs have some principle value to them. i mean they're not going to be right per se, just in concept in other words. that's an important heat signal in that ~19th + time range out there but we'll see.

meanwhile, that's a hot signal between the 19th and 25th. all the operational models are coherently ejecting/repositioning +2+ standard deviation height anomalies closer to 90 w, well teleconnected with the major index modes in that time range. trend of verification low-balling the original warm signals, if not fail, has been observable - since last november that's been going on, actually. interesting subplot. we'll see if this one has legs.

10 more days the GFS will start pimping seasonal change on every D10 solution ... it can't wait to get past the solstice every year and then it thinks it's October 15

that actually looks like an unusually dry air mass everywhere, with local wv forcing from evaporation post green up tainting DPs into the 40s to me.

Odd DP for June

for newbs to the region that's gotta be a weird

what is a "Pit8"

Go wonder ...the operational Euro canceled the heat look. I don't know it's hard to get a bead on that D6 to 13 range. There's a low amplitude -PNA which seems to be in spatial conflict/destructive interference with this unrelenting non-linearity of +PNAP ... Quick comment on that... uuusually, the Pacific North American index is tightly correlated to the Perennial North America Pattern - but since last November this has not been the case... Really rather remarkable, the longevity of that uncoupled statistic. It gave as a colder winter than recent years, while the neg interference of it all ...stopped big stormy snows. Now we're seeing the summer afflicted with fast moving fronts and heat suppression tendencies ( so far..). Anyway, the telecons have a sustaining -PNA with a sustaining, albeit modest, +NAO... with cyclic EPO dumps ... heat can certainly manifest over eastern mid latitudes of the continent given that teleconnector spread. The question is, will it? You can go by the verifications - they're going to be above normal if not by whole degrees ... by decimals. That's not related to this... something else The EPS still has at least a flat ridge cutting E in its ensemble mean D7 to 12 ...

I actually don't have a problem with being skeptical of inundating rain - given to the physical layout with pressure trying to rise, sure... but, the models as still not showing very good continuity at the detail level. The amplitude is weak, but the flow is still tending to fast. It's two strikes against model accuracy. The high can't completely protect as much as as it seemingly can at other times. It matters.. the 00z Euro/GGEM both backed off and in fact don't look worse than sprinkles or light showers on Saturday after about 8 or 9am. The GFS? destroys Saturday with stir crazy kids turnin' over furniture and dads wondering like a Talking Heads song "...how did I get here" ... GFS is better on Sunday ... The NAM ( fwi not w ) was actually not bad on Saturday after dawn showery region passes off. Either way, with a high passing by to the N...whether it is steady rain or not, it's still going to be mostly if not totally overcast... probably misting along eastern slopes of terrain. Temps held to 70.

Steady rain Saturday on these recent American runs

https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-change-drives-record-breaking-heat-in-iceland-and-greenland-challenging-cold-adapted-ecosystems-and-societies/

Tomorrows gonna be a different planet.

I’d rather the idiot red state that they are go on ahead and continue denying CC so sea level rises on up and claims the whole thing … land and the morons on it

yeeeah one wouldn't feel confident in that .. heh

Euro extend following the GFS ...

Extended 12z GFS looks decidedly more typical -PNA constructive over the lower 48. Totally different over the NE Pac by abolishing the erstwhile anachronistically powerful polar jet around that Aleutian December low that it's been selling up there. Abruptly replaced with a more climate seasonal break down/flaccidity to the flow. This sets up vastly different forcing across the downstream continent. For one, stopping Pac jet intrusion downstream along 40N. Immediately we see the -PNAP with higher height responses, more consistent with -PNA correlation. So we'll see... it's not the first time we've seen an attempt at this since late April and it's been not doing very well at verifying -

It'll be in the 80s tomorrow

But that’s been an issue. The PNA has already been negative … at least numerically. It just has been repeatingly failing to manifest in the daily patterns. There’s been a bit anti-correlative standing persistence. So for the next week … it rises but doesn’t quite neutralize before collapsing way out there but based on the above failure trend? … doesn’t lend confidence.

There's a high pressure that despite the faster than normal jet structures and power, relative to summer climo, is managing to anchor across Ontario. It's ultimately there because because there's this weird persistence of N-stream mashing the flow S spanning southern Canada, and this is creating a 'standing wave' confluence ... etc... That's really the problem. The N-stream won't die this year. It's frankly been promoting over active wave spacing in the atmosphere at unusually late climate/seasonality. Regardless of Euro-esque, or Good For Shit modeled versions for the weekend, they all are very winter like. I mentioned this yesterday. I imagine that in December as a icy mix with snow chances, albeit light, but Currier&Ives for the run up to the holidays. In the summer? You get -5 dailies/Baffin Island climate

this is true... I read that and was wondering what version of the operational GFS they are cluing in on when it comes to rain ... heh. In fact, I thought the GFS was the more rancid of the choices. The missive is right about the 'stretching' aspect though - that much the author is spot on. In fact, the GFS stretches as model-native bias at all times. some times more evident than others, but I have been railing on about this for years frankly. It's also true - in principle - that weaker systems in a high speed zonal flow tendency are tricky.

It depends... There's no time constraint in the repeating fractals of nature. They are a matter of probability - yes .. it is less likely that a repeating pattern would repeat at longer lengths of time; considering, permutations capable of effecting change to an ongoing system also increase in likelihood the longer the repeating system exists. However, "less" is why some people end up wealthy with accesses to lavishness, hot sex with those they actually want to be with, as a life, while others with the exact same aptitude, effort and application ... do not. It is possible, however less likely ... that this will not change until time has run out on summer.

I mean just look at this CMC run ... Not that it's very likely to happen this way, but the fact that it's even being modeled by a valid machinery of real physics. Chicago with thickness over 580, with sub-530 N o Maine! On the Solstice of summer. I wonder what that delta circumstance is in historical precedence.

something weird is going on all over the place

No one's asking me ... I get it. But this is not as bad as May 2005 imho.