Typhoon Tip

that operational Euro's extended only achieves one thing and one thing only ... why you should never look at an extended range Euro solution

This could be a great icing/mix scenario with only minor synoptic adjustment

Kind of a vague SWFE look to the GFS too

Frankly ... no social media should be preferential for information source people. None, or very little of it, regardless of the outlet, has been reviewed and adjudicated. You may have some social media spaces that are less corrupting - unfortunately, even the best, well-intended sources are still prefiltered subjective stews of untested, perhaps well-articulated "accidental gaslighting". This is a beautiful expose' going on, right here, right now, demonstrating the perils of creating a faux reality constructivism that is unguided, and is thus more of a destructive force in the common threading that holds a society together - by believing the social media is better than verified, refereed and/or adjudication, shows a break down in the common trust that is vital to former health of civility. There is also an element of not knowing any better - 50% of the population density is just stupidly naive and for lack of better word, gullible to believe whatever jerks their strings. Social media is at best a tongue in cheek distraction from the pacing of the real, which exists outside of blue screen technology's frenetic button pushing chode tugging. But groups of humanity are apparently, morbidly, substantiating it all; and their beliefs caught up in the fuckery and baseless because of it.

6z operational GFS looks winter friendly at 500 mb/evolution into the first days of Jan ( night and day to the 0z run, actually - ). However, the sfc evolution left something to be desired. I figure if its evolution in the deep layer is closer to reality, that's correcting most likely. The problem is, it's every other run with these guidance. It's the same shit as the last 6 days of guidance peregrinations, frankly. No sense even reacting to the cinema ...people still will though. Big parked remarkably persistent mega height node, all ensemble systems, smack between the WPO and EPO domains in the N. Pac., while the easterly biased NAO pulsates ...it's leaving almost no pattern signal in between. So we're probably in the worst predictive hole we've been in in years.

NJ

Beautiful ribbon echo squall

... but, that's if x-y-z. For now, the NAO has to be stamped down. I don't trust the 12z removal any more than huge balm. We've been doing this for a week with that aspect and it's still not very confident or clear where total Pacific --> N/A relay --> NAO domain is going to orient. Comical. We could be 32 or close to 70 depending

I'd like to underscore this sentiment here This cold over last 4 to 6 weeks, folks are being victimized by an unusual front performing temperature result. How? It's falsely elevating expectations. As an aside, while that was happening ... the footprint of the actual circulation mode ( blocking over top compression at 40 N) never was that good for actual storm growth. But the cold just kept refilling. It started with west oriented -NAO about 5 weeks back. That faded while almost seamlessly, perhaps a retrograde even, the -EPO arrived... Truth is, Will's spectacularly correct in this idea above. When the cold spigot shuts off, there is a reality about the world we live in that we've only had a hiatus from do to that obscuring above. It'd go the other direction at least to climate thaw range, but most likely, that range + a synergistic value. One that is ... mm something that people want to fight about rather than think about so I won't bother.

I'm sensing a recurring theme there where the AI interpretations are always slightly to moderately "better" ( referring to winter enthusiast lensing - ) than whatever the operational non-AI tenor of that run cycle is. I'd like to know how these Artificial Intelligentsia model variations are actually constructed - how/what is/are processing. It seems to me there might be some climate tainting the AI ... like part of what it does ( just pure speculation here - ) is factor in all inputs that might be factored, like at all ..., and if climate from 1980 is involved in that, it would be bad. The other thing is I don't mean to impugn the AI modeling technology. It's fledgling and probably primitive - obviously - for having just recently been invented. 10 years from now, who knows. It's a journey that's probably got to be made full of the usual peregrinations of successes and failures along the way... all that. How have the AI models done up to this point in time, this year? I don't really count last year - I don't think. It was just too primitive and sparsely existing. But now there appears to be an actual competitive market getting going so it should be time to compare verification and scoring

heh...not sure how to use that 'multiquote' but ha, nice to see the agreement among Mets there

there’s some angry denialism goin on in here tonight

impressive hydrostatic correction with that front, no doubt. 20 dm in 6 hours, the bulk of which happens faster than that, too.

synoptic wind driven events seldom materialize or verify as advertised. That's why I lean needing the convective assist - hence the Marginal. I just checked btw and they've already gone there in their d-3 sev storms outlook - tho the verbiage is rather bland.

mm I'm thinking more along the lines of synoptic forcing/wind problems that are then entangled with convection along what's inevitably going to be a ribbon echo squall sinuously side winding across the area. I guess wind watch headlines may cover this come to think of it. Plus... any "subtle" discrete nature to leading convective elements that are embedded in the misty wind smearing rad wash region - dirty warm sector... Those'll be whisking along within a llv jet. Those could snap troubled limbs. NAM is a tad more aggressive with this llv wind max than the Euro ( 12z ) ...haven't looked that GFS. But the NAM indicated 65+kts at 925 mb between HFD-BED! That's a whopper if it's for real. But even the Euro has this wind maxim moving NYC to SE zones/clipping at 55 to 60. A compromise puts a potential momentum/gust problem across the bulk of the area. There's still still 2 days to tune this potential. But the soundings start to look more barotropic as this is all occurring and that means we scale back the protective inversion stuff...

I bet a marginal goes up for us on Friday... wouldn't be shocked.

The GFS recent runs have been an outlier relative to its ensemble mean wrt the NAO handling In fact, the GFS recent runs have been an outlier relative to every ensemble mean wrt the NAO handling, EPS, Can ... GEFs et al. Not sure why this guidance is doing that, but it is what it is...and may be the best route to getting a nostalgia Holiday realized. Namely, it's clearly showing a more western limb -NAO circulation mode behavior in it's cinema, passing through the Holiday and toward NY... That backs the flow through central Canada, and then confluence increases ... blah blah and the boundary ends up suppressing. I didn't detail the GEFs with extraordinary obsession or anything ...but just the cursory evaluation of the 500 mb anomaly distribution, the -NAO expression is retrograded in the operational run, and the ensemble mean does not perform that retrograde. At the end of the day, the NAO remains the bane of prediction skill in the ambit of forecasting technology. jesus. that fuggin thing just cannot seem to ever be well-enough predetermined to know with comfort how the local fields will be modulated. So I guess it's not impossible that the GFS is more right about it... the GGEM from 12z, fwiw, did take a step. Edit, case in point, this 12z GFS now decides to look a little less west oriented -NAO than the previous. We're still playin with dad's model gun with that index out there, though

GGEM's a nice nod in favor of GFS recency, actually ... it's probably going snow on Xmas eve/morning in some micro synoptic weirdness of timing, when embedded ultimately in a longer term predominating warmer signal. ha

You've hinted pretty well at the two primary reasons I've suspect since September this may be an early loaded winter, followed by some struggles. I thought at the time an early spring, too. I sort of sarcastically mused, 'flower February' ... Just expand a little on the climate aspect ( CC not included). This type of low amplitude La Nina autumn/winter in the past preceded some spectacularly warm springs. Gotta dust off the antiquity, but 1976 and 2012 ...etc.. They're there, if one goes and just cursory runs their finger down the ENSO history, they'll see the negative ENSO years, and then compare those to notably warm springs there's a pretty clear correlation there - no, not 1::1 ...work with me here. It's there, and it's non-noise. So, now add 20 years of accelerating CC. Which unfortunately for those that have issues with this reality ... springs have begun expressing bigger heat relative to climate, and also all-time, with increasing frequency. I mean, there have been heat-related deaths in lower China in Marches. It's a matter of time before a February 2017 type ridge returns, here, and perhaps does so with greater duration. I just see as an idea here, that if we combine this latter aspect with the aforementioned climate inference farther above, we don't get a protracted winter sense of it. Also, the near history ( last decade's worth) of winters have become all but dependably similarly behaving - in principle. Despite whatever background/preceding ENSO this or that was observed, leitmotif: some early form of early blocking and snow supporting synoptics ( sometimes as early as Octobers for the first time in my life), then, the circulation gets blown open by midriff seasonal velocity saturation. I'm sorry, since September, see and sense that lurking again ... One thing recent La Nina have not performed very well, is that early climate signaled warmth, however. It may be Russian Roulette with that if/when water finds its level.

Looping vis suggests this is transient and you open up out there over the next hour. We'll see. May not be "sunny" today, but a compromise

late 25th thru mid 27th is an icing pattern. didn't appear y'all mentioned it? If not, that's a stalled polar boundary with duration over running. 1020 +PP situated N of the boundary pushing E while gaining some as it goes + climo = ice event written all over it. Like Will said, ...talk to us when we're within a week. Tru. But, the idea of some sort of a mixy potentials in that time frame is still there in principle.

One can enjoy the deep winter with weather chart drama ... One can embrace the surreal warmth that obliterates winter. There may be no sense for loss in either experience. Either can be fulfilling. I realize we all have our druthers. Most would agree. Yet, it's interesting how those agreeing folk seem to take actual offense at other's. Like it's the stranger's responsibility to be sensitive to one's posting mood, or the flavor of the moment. It's a weird pastime. All these social media are. Fucked Book to Instacrap, OK Stupid to who knows what dating app ... and this, too. There's some sort of an emptiness issue that permeates the souls of modernity. And all this "state of provision" that we take for granted. You know .. it's almost like the law of lessening returns also hits when we look around, and should see how it creates so many choices, yet they are lost in a blizzard of opportunity. Irony how overabundance seems to empty out minds. People would rather then "faux-fill" their gift of brief time for their lives involved in this intractable preoccupation. It's lost because there is no value in gains unearned. If you work for joy, you find it there. Modern experience removes too much of the work. No joy. But the mind still seeks it... so we create the illusion of it in the back and forth of this electronic game.. It all comes down to managing dopa. People can't get it from their lives, why? who knows ... something like boredom from above. But it's easier to seek immediate satisfaction of a dramatic weather-chart cinema. Failing that, they seek it in the group modes of the moment, which are often spontaneously occurring bi-polar flashes of perspectives - how things are so bad, then not so bad this and that. Meanwhile, the more objective viewer sees 0 difference before and after. And then, if some hapless sort wonders into the moment with their particular druthers, and it's not in sync with that mode, they were then irresponsible for other people's delicate sensibilities while were enjoying their dopa .... than they're buzz killed like a swarm murder hornets. This is kind of a toxic relationship. Not the people mind you.. But this pursuit, thinking to fulfill something that cannot ultimately be fulfilled this way, yet keep repeating the same performance

That 2020 scenario was born out of a completely different synopsis.