Typhoon Tip

Brian .. he feels better about it today because he's reading the room, just like he does the mark in a sale's meeting. That's what he does for a living, quite successfully, too. It's his superpower. He could sell a dog-shit taco to Julia Child, and even get her to compliment the spicing... We all have one - though most of us go through life having never figured out what ours, is ... He would probably make for a good Poker player, come to think of it, because as we all know, in Hold 'em statistics wins some hands but he who reads the room wins the big pot. He's like a social NMB model... just reading the room and figuring for a consensus.

Sorry, ...that's not the right hole, honey

It makes sense of itself ... which is not an aver as to it's winning in this thing, but given the larger super synoptic structure wrt ridge and troughs and teleconnectors therein, that is what this should all be looking like. Rather elegantly, too The CFS - I believe but am not certain - is a climate fusion with GFS output. It's possible the the climate integral part of that is pulling these E solutions of the operational GFS, back W where they really should be - given to the aforementioned synoptic arguments. Interesting...

Sorry...catching up overnight shenanigans, but what sticks out to me the most in this cinema above ...the trough bulk spatial positioning is bumping slowly W - as it really should - while noticing, the western ridge component of this total +PNAP flow orientation is wobbling but otherwise transfixed along roughly 110 W. That actually best teleconnects said eastern trough closer to 80W than the Del Marva/off the eastern seaboard during greatest amplitude. Basically... these things don't always come into reality in best fits. But, they due tend to at least shuffle closer to where they should be while doing so. This slow, albeit perhaps crucial bumping W with the trough is suitable.

I still suggest a correction W across the W Atl nearby EC is possible if not in the cards. I've been very vocal about the 'disrespect'/odd configuration results of the global models wrt the western heights, and how the coupled downstream trough should dictate this stuff ending up more W - that completes the total L/W structure. These erstwhile solutions appearing to be too stretched in the longitudinal axis. That did not change over night. Stubborn. Yet... and I can't believe I'm saying this wrt any NAM model solution at 60-84 hour out in time , the 06z you may or may not have noticed is diving down a solid couple of longitude clicks W of all guidance. That actually looks like a better fit for a western ridge axis roughly aligned Idaho/eastern MT, to W of the Colorado Rockies. Be that as it may with the NAM inclusion for this, it at least demos one physically plausible solution that better fits what the other models have been failing to do. That all said... it's possible to stretch the trough perhaps due to other reasons. It's just that I fail see what those are. It just appears the models are over doing perhaps the S/W translation speed of the whole phasing arena, and that sort of outpaces the L/W - that's a correctable facet, even in shorter terms. One aspect about this ( also ) that I feel is correctable in shorter terms is that the curvature of this whole ordeal doesn't even start to emerge until 48 to 60 hours before play time. The western end of the SPV fragmentation up there draped W-E N of Lake Superior bides time, then the whole thing collapses S rather acutely. I think that has to actually begin and then the cause-and-effect and feedbacks et al will manifest in some shorter term modulations. High confidence for a storm... perhaps a tremendous storm, and a positive realization for all this ... but where is biggie when dealing with sub 975ers yeah.

ICON was much different in the 500 mb evolution comparing the 18 Z The run overall is a huge improvement; if it wasn’t for the fact that it was ejecting the phase before it could actually complete the fusion then that would’ve been a bomb much farther west than 120 hours

The NAM is a huge incremental step more favorable for cyclogenic development along the Eastern seaboard bclinic region as it’s begun the rotation of the trough axis. Ending frames of the previous model cycle were less rotated

yeah… You know a lot of those on those list are sus to me. It’s like this situation might be just unusual enough that the best grabs are not very good? that kind of observation tends to create fights on the website so that’s not what I’m trying to do here.

Right and furthering the point… Unusual situations , you know people have to be on guard for unusual or unexpected results take that list of analogs, for example. None of those on that list had heights like this plumbing to that deep and latitude, and that Z coordinate in the atmosphere. Yet those are the best analogs the best analogs could still be bad comparisons. That’s often misunderstood about analogs.

Hey Will how is 1987 February 10 an analog let alone number one? Do you have those charts?

You’re probably going to find a lot of similarities because there’s really own way for a subsume phase to happen… And they all carry the traits in common The standard analog is probably a higher percentage likeness than when they have to go out and find something that’s similar to something else unusual

I shit you not… I’ve had that Boxing Day storm in my mind for the past three days.

Perhaps you can imagine that, but imagination is not a statistic nor synoptic verification. Also, the Delmarva is about 200 miles north of Cape Hatteras and that is significant in terms of climatology of the 500 mb. In fact, when I said Cape Hatteras, that was a loose reference … the actual model run had 516 and sub height S-Southeast of Cape Hatteras.

Probably looking at the first in the series of runs destined for a historic blizzard for everybody from interior North Carolina up to down East Maine. An I 95 special

In my 30 years of modeling I've never seen a dam core plum below 516 at Cape Hatteras... I challenge anyone to find one. Kocin&Ucellini to NCEP's Library, I'm will to wager we are close to or at a record if/should that take place. I agree, ... the idea of moving something of that accord then bodily ENE through the perennial height wall of the west Atlantic is suspect in principle. There's much to question wrt to the models for doing that. Can it happen... rules are meant to be broke, but there's also a reason why that particular standard of behavior is very seldom seen. Just for one ... what's going to happen when that implosion in deep heights teases the b-c ambience extending across Gulf/land interface region out to E of GA/FL? The explosion that is not there but really should be.. would impose just an incredible convective feedback latency potential. We have to sit here and imagine, within constrained of learning and experience, that this faux missing component ( presently...) would foster the west correction on its own. No model seems to even be doing anything with that potential. Very suss. Another bugaboo for me... I have all kinds of problem with a ridge anchored over Idaho, and these models taking an already stretched Rossby signature, ...and straining my believability to even more tension by stretching into something like this... Wanna hear something funny? I mused that idea yesterday, 'gee I hope this doesn't end up over ALB'. Not happenin' As an afterthought, with a west vestigial -NAO going on, that also doesn't lend to longitudinal motion escaping the M/A latitudes.

This may be at least partial as an effective management tool for some ... WPC Extended Forecast Discussion The ongoing settling of cold surface high pressure and additional surges in the wake of the historic winter storm will maintain dangerously cold temperatures for the central and eastern U.S. well into next week as per the Climate Prediction Center. The airmass may be more prolonged in areas with widespread snow/ice coverage and enhanced radiational cooling. Amplified mean troughing aloft will meanwhile bring rounds of weak to moderate clipper system snows from the north-central U.S. to the Great Lakes. In this anomalously cold pattern, there is potential for wintry precipitation into the Gulf Coast states late week as upper trough translation leads into northern Gulf frontal wave genesis. Wave progression downstream and trough/closed low development aloft is now increasingly likely to set the environment to produce a significant Eastern Seaboard Coastal Winter storm expected to rapidly deepen while lifting over the western Atlantic off the Southeast Saturday and Mid-Atlantic/New England Sunday. Uncertainty has improved but remains with the exact track of the low which impacts the onshore wintry precipitation focus and footprint. However, the growing consensus at this time is for heavy snow potential from the eastern Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic through coastal southern New England. The forecast strength of the deep low suggests high winds/waves and coastal flooding would also be expected.

Heh... EPS mean shifted bodily SE ... consolidated at a deep pressure mean, too - it's not even in margin of error on that depiction - it's just flat bodily wrong, or, bodily right

I'm behind all you folks ( snow day yesterday means double duty today ) but I've never seen sub-516 dm heights in a closed trough at Cape Hatteras before (12 gfs). that's unworldy

people don't see a very obvious and direct hit, they get emotionally downtrodden, then ... interpret the models according to that emotive response. check.

Nah, these west 'leaning' members in this depiction would rage from D.C. to BOS

The ICON is not a dependable model even at this range, from my own experience. That said ... the 12z rendition of the wholesale evolution (operational) was in fact a marked improvement over the 00z. I don't pay enough attention to the off hour runs of this model - need more background on how it works/data feeds/initialization ...everything, which is not something I've been inclined to research given to the unstable performance I've noticed at anything beyond 60 or hours. But as as far as the former, there's time and space for trending.

just using your chart here... yeah, it's almost to the point of frustration that the models appear to be disconnecting the wave -space arguments in their physical result/processing. That ridge being over Idaho ...if anything that presupposes a position near WV with that tough axis.. which would probably parlay quite favorably. That's a bizarrely stretched looking gunk L/W filled with distractions...

I think we got about 2 ...maybe 3 cycles remaining. After that, it's probably a consensus go or no go

Heh, 06z EPS has collapsed latitude, and weaker, both

Alarming EPS members/spread orientation. Between that, together with the bump NW over prior cycle … clearly this wants to be W