Typhoon Tip

Yes! to the point/observation I just mentioned, this fits

I'm way behind but I reasoned that out yesterday... The diffluent "fan" of the isohypses appears to be sensitive in this case. The more expanded that is toward the NW, the model's been 'filling' more QPF

... which, doesn't comment on the stability ... It's 240+ hours and just outside the range where these larger scaled 'scaffolds' become more reliable -

yeah, just looking at these spatial orientations now... 28th/29th is a quasar anything prior to the 27th is probably kind of buckshot and not very clear at this range... They're not tied to any coherent larger mass field reshuffling; if/when they exist they're like "under the radar" and emerge in shorter notice. Middling in scale, ....get into a resonant overrunning deal, notwithstanding - again, that shows up < 5 days typically in this overall compressed/cold hemisphere

Reiterating because this is the best signal using applied telecon we've had this season and possibly going back multiples - ~27th thru GH Day

Like I told Ray 10 20 pages ago or whenever the hell it was we’ve been correcting shit west all season. Not saying that’s gonna happen. Just I wouldn’t be surprised. Far be it for anybody in this NOAA administration to come up with an argument of flying special sound emissions in the western Atlantic to see what it would do if we dumped a bunch of latent heat into that region… Gotta be careful with the nam though because it’s got a northwest bias in Western Atlanta at this time range Just some pros and cons

To be honest, the AIGFS ticked southeast at 18 Z a little bit… I looked at the clock and I’m seeing 60 hours to go before game time. Yeah that’s 10 cycles plenty of time to cave.

and why does "...I don't think any of us truly understand how they work", logically mean they are more correct ?

acceptance takes away their ammo. they sense the reticence that's frankly wrong, then ... compounded by delusion at grandeur, anything but to see certain aspects that if people just accepted and stopped fighting on every single model run ... you'd de-weaponize them

wait, what did i do ? wait first of all, we don't know precisely how ... and by defacto 'what' these AI (apparent marketing gimmicks ) are doing. so how can we be sure about 20 or 30 years ago anyway? that's I pointed this out yesterday.. there's been no prospecti made easy to find - if at all - that answers the questions that everybody should be asking but no one is! jesus... degradation of virtuosity and method on both side. whereby any kind of advantages and disadvantages, circumstantially; basic modeling 101 stuff that has to be considered. confidence intervals... methodologies. nothing. we can't say jack shit about them. I'm hugely displeased at deployment and anyone that uses them .... man, caveat emptor

the old weather channel tower mn boiling cup of water trick

oh i see what the AI Euro's doing there. it's contracted the QPF around the NW arc by small amts, while the low is both a couple mb deeper and tracking slightly NW of previous runs. that's a consolidating going on

is everyone at lest half their seasonal snow totals then ?

no one's wasting time tracking these ... the learning curve in this era of [ enter whatever euphemism makes it more comfortable for you ] is large. can't really learn it otherwise

i wonder if we'll see cove and harbor slabs

actual pick up trucks parked out there

y'all lookin to flog someone or something cuz now your pissed. but it's your buying in and/or allowing you're moods be yo yoed by this thing. probably should work on your dopa dependency with 'blue light' and web access to weather chart thing, ha

it must be on his mind - he keeps bringing it up

meh to is his or her own as the old sayn goes. some of us do a lot of outdoor life during the summer that is at best hindered to do so, otherwise cannot be done in winters. for these types, about the only redeeming value winter has is the fascination of storminess. when that is at a premium ...to put it nicely, the point of it is time-wasting. and frankly, a lot of delusion and avoidance of obviousness enough to roll eyes needs to happen to deny the futility. ugh. no thanks. makes this journey really pretty bad.

the climate is abandoning the hobby haha

that's probably why, yeah. the gfs' synoptic forcing overcomes the convection, and since the nam's deep layer kinematics are weak...the convection takes over. why not

12z nam's doing that the 06z gfs left the conv alone and relies entirely on the synoptic q-g forcing not sure which is right

oh must be the 06z gfs fantasy. m'yeah i'd table that whole thing actually. i prefer when in times of unusually high uncertainty to avoid the consensus passively denying CC is fucking everything up and making it be that way ... by relying on index modes and modalities. they like the 28th - ground hog day -ish. there's some signal there re the this 24/25th but not as much, so that's why i table for now.

day 9/10 ...which one is that, off of which run cycle... this stuff is all f'n buckshot right now

Heh ... should that 06z GFS run verify, it would go quite some distance in recovering seasonal weather chart dopa hit deficits