Typhoon Tip

97 gotta a be record somewhere in the area. I think ORH was *92 and last check they were 93 so have to officiate but there you go. Edit, that's not the airport above. The AP is only 90, so far

Canadian still strapping us to a shit eating machine but thankfully ...we don't trepidate over that particular model. HA

Might go variable cloudiness Saturday in that look ( pure GFS that is...).

I think Kevin lives in the 'thermometer housing' at the BDL tarmac

GFS saves Saturday and Sunday from rain... dry NE of New York City

94 and 95 over at NWS' sites 2 mi from mi casa Weather conditions for: Harvard Rest Area, MA (MAEOT - BOX) Elev: 328.0 ft; Lat/Lon: 42.51834/-71.60300 Date/Time (L) Temp. (°F) Dew Point (°F) Relative Humidity (%) Heat Index (°F) Wind Direction Wind Speed (mph) Road Temp. (°F) May 19, 12:05 pm 94 60 32 94 NW 11G21 May 19, 12:00 pm 95 60 31 95 W 9G16 108 May 19, 11:55 am 95 61 32 95 W 4G18 107 May 19, 11:45 am 95 62 34 96 NW 3G15 105 May 19, 11:40 am 95 59 30 94 WNW 4G11 105 May 19, 11:35 am 95 61 32 96 SW 4G12 May 19, 11:30 am 106 May 19, 11:25 am 94 63 36 96 W 1G16 May 19, 11:20 am 94 62 34 95 W 8G17

I think you might be conflating with your alternate life fantasy here -

I bet ORH pops 90 they're 88 for now but there's literally 0 inhibition to maximizing this bad boy today. 95 here... one more ob before noon proper

Problem with that idea is that the NINO is not a raging hard one yet. It's formulating... Now ...maybe that's enough? I don't know. But having the NINO in place, already registering an influence in the atmosphere, which this isn't ...yet, is a different animal.

NAM seems to be delaying the front by 3 or so hours over priors...that might make the difference for HFD-LWM axis/E

93

I thought the other day the models were too liberal with theta-e advection/pooling N/E of NYC just because the the antecedence has been a bit of a dry anomaly. Not sure if that'll be the case ...buuut, right turning clusters Pacman gobbling CAPE toward the source seems like an option in this synopsis, either way.

86 to 88 at 10 am in the local area. Looking at higher res vis sat, clouds don't appear to be an option. Very low wind to offer ventilation... Does this solitary afternoon end up being the biggest heat of the summer?

Hilarious ... thing is, ...I wondered that last winter. Seriously. I mean, I ask and ask and looked it up, and no one/source could give me a clear a-b-c, much less impression, about how these tools derive their values. Looked suspiciously like derivatives have nothing to do with it. Anyway, perhaps there's something about their "mechanics" that is more than lesser known these days. Haven't followed thru. But I tongue-in-cheek mused that these AI tools were just Google on steroids, going out and reading the entire Internet cloud, where there's obviously a fairly large/significant influence statistic of Ineedsnow mongers ... That would explain why the snow was always farther N-W ... etc haha.

84 ... feels meaner

yeah... I wasn't sure. It just looked too much. I couldn't find any surrounding sites that matched that amount. The other aspect ... that FIT site's in a bowl. ...figuratively speaking. It's like the lowest spot around that immediate countryside. Winds being so light at the regional scope doesn't lend to scouring out at 2am but who knows. Having said that ... FIT has always appeared right to me in the past - not a lot of history of odd ball numbers, either. 'c'mon FIT! what are ya doin' to me' Sterling 7 or so miles away, S along 91 around the same time FIT had it's 16 point bump Weather conditions for: EW4324 Sterling, MA (APRSWXNET/CWOP - BOX) Elev: 636.75 ft; Lat/Lon: 42.43967/-71.78417 May 19, 3:00 am 72 63 74 SW 1G4 1017.60 29.38 30.07 0 -- 0.00 0.00 May 19, 2:54 am 72 63 73 SSW 2G6 1017.60 29.38 30.07 0 -- 0.00 0.00 May 19, 2:45 am 72 63 74 SW 2G5 1017.60 29.38 30.07 0 -- 0.00 0.00 May 19, 2:36 am 72 63 74 SSW 2G5 1017.94 29.39 30.08 0 -- 0.00 0.00 May 19, 2:29 am 72 63 73 SW 2G4 1017.94 29.39 30.08 0 -- 0.00 0.00 May 19, 2:18 am 72 63 74 SW 2G8 1018.27 29.40 30.09 0 -- 0.00 0.00 May 19, 2:09 am 72 63 74 SW 1G5 1018.27 29.40 30.09 0 -- 0.00 0.00 May 19, 2:02 am 71 62 74 SSW 1G5 1018.32 29.40 30.09 0 -- 0.00 0.00 May 19, 1:54 am 71 62 74 WSW 1G6 1018.32 29.40 30.09 0 -- 0.00 0.00 May 19, 1:47 am 71 62 74 WSW 1G4 1018.32 29.40 30.09 0 -- 0.00 0.00 May 19, 1:36 am 71 62 74 SW 1G4 1018.32 29.40 30.09 0 -- 0.00 0.00 May 19, 1:29 am 71 62 74 SSW 1G3 1018.32 29.40 30.09 0 -- 0.00 0.00

heh... we did not... I was 61 until twilight glow ... 81 now

Heh... probably just the operation run dance.

I think he's referring to the 00z operational GFS ? It pretty much stalls it all S and never gets QPF in here. 6z was more pessimistic. Euro trended tho... It seems the blend of the operational runs is less overall, and with that gyre over the Maritime of Canada having that polar jet around the SW side it does offer an argument to suppress. It's an interesting battle with that. If that vortex up there weakens the shits flood in. The other aspect ...it seems the whole body of the schmootz rising up in latitude is warm frontal more than cyclonic. It'll have that typical book-end fake low on the west end of it as usual but it's mostly just the cool air from Wed fropa having over exceeding the hemispheric signal, so ...said signal reasserts by rising back over the top enough to crank the weekend. Anyway, Euro at least hints at saving Saturday. Prior runs had that day miserable by 10am down there in CT and checked out by 2 up here. If it holds off just another 10 miles you're golden.

Yeah I've noticed it's been speeding up ... Looks like it's thru western NE by noon.

I'm not sure the FIT one is right. There is/was a warm boundary sort of washing out overnight, but at 1:35 am that site was 61 F like everywhere around it within 10 clicks, then ...2:15 am it's 77. Seems a bit handsome for that hour of the night. I checked some of the surrounding NWS tweener sites and they did show a modest indication for some sort of warmth penetrating the sfc but not 15 to 17 worth - not even close to that amount. Not sure. Seems suss

Borderline big heat tomorrow. As expected ... headlines now flying. Prooobably 94 to 95? 95+ is sort of the "unofficial" "big heat" criteria. But it probably really should go by the HI values.

Chuck, I just dropped this over in the ENSO thread because I believe that's relevant -

Folks may have some issue fatigue but ...too bad. We are currently crossing a date-relative historic max in the global mean temperature. This curve looks disconcerting, particularly when considering A, the quadratures are all bursting at the same time: SH/NH, Arctic/Antarctic, and Tropics. B, the last time Earth chose spring as the time of year to to flip the ENSO scrip, - to +, the whole planet did something not seen ever before: rose almost a half deg C within a two month span of time. Not sure if magnitude of ENSO means anything to that? - but I'll tell ya, it doesn't intuitively 'feel' very comforting seeing the environmental cues going so massive with the ensuing +ENSO state.