Typhoon Tip

Hard to compare? I realize you're making conjecture and it's all good and fair. But this thing ending today, and that thing in 6 days are apples and oranges in the atmospheric setting and governing kinematics. So favoring has to just be whether it exists or not ... I admittedly lapsed on this most recent one. I discussed this in the storm thread ... But this one appears to also be an index signal if we ( or I - ) had bothered to look. About 10 days ago there was a very coherent MJO phase 6 wave space in the RMM. This has a strong correlation to warmer than normal across the eastern 2/3rd of the middle continent. This timed with typical MJO lag for this same period as the storm... so what gives? Well, the intense -EPO cold load that set up right on top of it. It's really a clash of two disparate implications... the STJ that came across the Baja and went over Texas, was the MJO wave termination mechanics, then encountering a -3 SD arctic invasion. Amazing really... It was all MJO warm/moisture going over top an arctic dome. There really was only weak low pressure...

Yes... one idiosyncrasy as we observe this thing in these early pages ... there is a preponderance of very deep members. That's been a thing with this for the past week's worth of modeling... the variance has been very all or nothing. I find that particular behavior interesting. Either the model in question has nothing ... or something sub-980 bombing. That's red flag as to potential - which we already know is there... but the member variance is typically narrower and closer to a mean that is more middling. Sub 980s are spread NW

Really fundamentally flawless in this 06z operational Euro and it's D6 ... not D9... But again, I'm more confidence established on some kind of system in this window, because as I've been pointing out for well over a week, the indexes have been firing warning shots across the bow the whole time.

Yeah, I just saw the 06z Euro... primitive albeit impressive attempt at continuity.

lots to sort out but at least for the moment, they all look like pieces of cryo-dystopic candy

Anomalous upper pattern appears to finally be emerging into well-established and very stable/persistent index signal. This could have been the opener for the arriving February thread, however, I feel this has some statistical significance that is higher than the background climo; it should be isolated at this time when considering these very recent ensemble trends shown below. These are 00z cycle of the Euro/GEFs/GEPs, left to right, centered on 168 hours. Note, the previous cycle were quite vague if qualitatively non-existent compared to these panels. This is a sudden thrust into emergence, of a well-established and persistent multi-sourced index signal. The operation renditions of the evolution of this are little unusual, for the time being... hints there of a 'hook in latter' scenario, where the flow rotates around and any system might appear initially destined to run away out to sea... However, as the deep layer rotates in time, the surface reflection is captured ... moves due N or even NW. This veneer of this Euro suggests something of blizzard from NYC-BOS ... 00z centered on 150 hours. I haven't delved into details though and wouldn't given to this still emerging. I feel this may be a back NW emergence ... like the Boxing Day storm in 2010, but doing so perhaps along different time scales. Lastly, this can be juggernaut. It is more of a subsume model phasing type. This is not an isentropic driven ordeal. It has ceiling potential that much higher in terms of deeper tropospheric structure. The implications/threat spectrum are thus more than just snow totals. This comes with an assortment of wind/tide/snow/problems to infrastructure ... the usual suspects. Subsumers are powerful because when you have a SPV fragmentation biding time, and then as an interloping S/Stream impulse passes underneath, the cold of N and the latency of warmth from the S or directly infused. For muse, the N/Stream pounces S- it's like 'predatory wave behavior' If you put the 500 mb heights into loop, you can see how it comes down and seems to engulf ... giving the allusion of ingesting the S/stream. And then the new total has grown in amplitude and implication.

One way or another, the fast atmosphere wins, and claims some hours off this thing

12” S/BR 11F

Damn… I thought you guys were talking about the AI euro That’s the actual euro at 18 Z That would be quite the massive snow for the DC - Philly region on that look right there. That almost looks like it would maybe then dress straight east unless there can be more -NAO south of Nova Scotia. That’s only six days away. And it’s in that index window that I was hitting at over the last 10 days. Yeah the models just don’t seem to really wanna commit to that, though. I almost wonder if the speed of the atmosphere wave traffic being pretty high it’s kind of blinding Cause usually when these indexes flag signal that strongly come Hell or high water or something happens. But I guess with 6 days to play that’s enough time to manifest. We’ll see.

Yeah, I’ve made it no secret that I tend to check out by mid February most years Little hypocrisy because if we’re gonna have an 1888 March bomb or something or 1993 or 1956, whatever obviously I’ll tune back in, but that’s mostly for the meteorological exotic nature of what’s going on. But if it’s just gonna be run-of-the-mill snowing five or 6 inches on April 20 when you can see it in the weather charts that six days later it’s gonna be up to 60° again. I don’t care for that. Another person probably doesn’t feel the same way in here. People croon for it in April. It’s like people! ha ha ha.

Safe really until the 8th … We exit the solar min and enters the solar transition season on that date. But it’s slow at first … the sun feels more noticeably warmer approaching the 20th+ But it will come fast. Just like in the end of July you think you have a lot of summer and you turn around and it’s September 6. that’s why I like my seasons front loaded… Cold and snow loaded if you can early on and then just give it up when the solar transition season start. Same thing in summer with all my heat from May and June…July 20. Altho caveat because golf gets nice in Sept. October November are just boring to me.Don’t get me started about hell on earth, April. If April could ever be a nice month - Obviously these are all pipe dreams though.

Too much energy expended in the semantics of the "SWFE" when the term never should have been invented in the first place. Meteorology already defines this type of precipitation cause by isentropic lift. That's all it is. SWFE is just overrunning, because the warm air outpaces the retreat of cold air, and thus... is forced over it. The other thing is that it is not that uncommon for isentropic events to morph into coastals. Sometimes there's a lull as the IB moves off, then the coastal gets going. Sometimes the transition is smoother... it's all kind of variant. We'll see what happens tomorrow but it looks on the PP layout like a coastal that is moving too fast to really clip on the way out. So we end up with a cough CCB decay ...

S/BR 1/4 mi vis 6F 8"

1/3 mi vis 7.25” S at the moment

People should put down the models and just like enjoy this?

S 4.25” est vis 1/3 mi 5F

Same here ... it's 'almost' S+ during a couple different intervals over the last two hours, but it quickly recedes back to a pedestrian S fall rate. Vis est 1/2 mi ... flirting with 1/4 mi when they occurred. Be that as it may, just under 4" here, so as expected ...accumulation is quite efficient in this cold air.

S/S+ est vis 1/4 mi 2.75" 6 F

Clearly a CF dump axis from PWM to ORH there... The other max is terrain enhancing.. whether that actually happens, notwithstanding

Better growth coming down now. Instead of cryo fog-, it's S- with actual discernible aggregates, albeit on the small side

I just keep musing tongue-in-cheek over how 6 days ago, we were looking at this continental mauler storm affecitng everywhere but here... Then, 6 days later... while it certainly is affecting a lot of the country, it actually appears to want to max where it was 0, six days ago - squarely right here in SNE that's an interesting model saga

There's an interesting phenomenon going on amid the Arctic domain right now associated with that crazy -AO depth ... which I suspect very few if anyone at all in here is aware. There's registering of record warmth going on up there. Quite highly correlated to -AO index modal states: it is warm ( relative to climo, of course!) up there, and colder at middle latitudes. This cold outbreak was be-a-utifully relayed from that crashing -AO, circuited through a -EPO...now, the EPO collapses and relays into the +PNA. The storms should be line up...but the models are taking a coffee break on seeing much...different issue/digression. In the meantime, some station up there...I'll try to find it, but in the midst of the 24 hour darkness, close to the N pole, in January, they were 36F ... That's like us being 122 in July.

heh right. You know, it seems unjust, or out of place, doesn't it. But I've seen huge < 10 hour turn around enough times that I've just come to stop really associating the scalar temperatures at onset with any kind of presumption. I've outlined the following event before. It's an extreme case, but in Jan 1994 we had a day dawn at 9 F throughout NE Mass... There were a few renegade flakes flitting down under the street lamps while the morning's ambiance of winter blue-gray twilight surrounded. By noon it was 24 with light IP... By 2 pm, light freezing rain at 29. By 4 pm, 36 with the evening dusky sky having transformed into then fast moving streets of clouds, S to N.. In a whoosh, front's through and by 6:30pm, it was 60 F with tree leaning monster S gusts. Now, this bears 0 synoptic relevancy to that. Different universe of events, entirely. However, the principle of believing scalar temperature means jack shit, is a very good one to remember. Haha. To this day, I really don't give a ratz ass what the temperature at the onset of x-y-z. I just understand what the chances are for things to happen after the fact, and go with it.

Vis est 2 mi; steady S-; very very small "micro aggregates". 6 F

Yeah... seems a little hard to believe, given the heavy suggestion by the indices through the first third of the Feb, but excluding the AI types all models carry nothing - However, you know a 15 to 20" regional snow bomb ... We can probably count on one hand over the last 200 years of weather history and yore, the number of times multiple 20" fell less than 10 days apart. I guess just based on that, which admittedly is operationally meaningless for deterministic weather forecasting in the dailies/now - more of a principle argument. We really shouldn't get a storm very soon anyone unless it's pedestrian and not asking the atmosphere to load up with more than Earth can provide in too short a turn around - the main reason why that is probably all true.. We'll see... lacking parameters doesn't appear to be the issue, though. The local hemisphere is in a higher than normal energetic regime. It may just be that we're stuck with ton of neggy interference. Because from orbit, it doesn't seem like there's a dearth of possibility when in a flexing +PNA, 570 dm thickness lurking near Miami, while it remains cold/cold enough in the OV, either. Lot's to consider