Typhoon Tip

It's an interesting psycho-babble thing ... it is. I mean, it's like that comedy bit by Louis C.K. where he outlines a flight and a passenger, never having been exposed to this technology whereby he can access his iphone while in flight, throws shade and criticizes the airline and attendants because 10 minutes into usage a couple internet pages 404 errored. "This sucks! This is an outrage! This is total bullshit.." 10 min ago, this passenger had zero awareness they could access the internet, from their iphone, while sitting in a chair, at 30 thousand feet, moving 500 mph ... Louis goes on to muse. Absolutely fucking hilarious as he exposes these entitled oblivion perspectives put on by this scowl-faced entitled person in square-mouthed rage... But something similar happens with this technology in modeling. For some reason, folks tend to less respectful, acting in a kind of indignant entitlement to the advantages and then criticizing it all without a realistic perspective. Technology and eases that it provides ... it tends to cancel humility. Personally ... the models are hugely improved ( actually ) compared to 20 years ago. However, there are CC related changes - also - that I suspect are relatively new in the history of the modeling tech, and there's some discovery there/user experience-related. We always used to know/have a feel for how things would outcome, based upon history of performance ... Those histories are less reliable, because the patterns are behaving differently - even if subtle and idiosyncratically, this appears to have a disproportionately larger impact on user experience, because those expected behaviors are not qualifying as well. This gives a faux impression of models sucking... heh. It's really more that the models are improving, and are being particularly challenged at the same time. But the users are suffering some 'chair at 30 k feet/500 mph' oblivion, too

altho, funny ... I just got done with a lecture point about theta-e deficits and this panel way out there turns around and demos a magnificent source... LOL

Unlikely, unfortunately

You should check this one just academically because it's what we were talking about earlier in getting the vort more S - immediately you see that improve. There's definitely an odd moisture deficit going on... It's almost like we're getting a negative feed-back over the continent because of the lack of cyclone traffic. These potent but compressed waves are failing to generate inflow pooling of theta-e into the S, whereby subsequent wave traffic have that source available to them. Something like this ... that ICON solution should be exploding frankly - it may also be that it's at the time horizon of the models outer edge too...

15/16th is still there... in fact, it's actually the most amp of all this shit... the problem, not for us. upstate NY to western QUE gets a moderate snow with strong windy system as a low forms over SE NY and a goes down to 990 or so as it cuts west of us. Meteorologically, that's a success Winter weather dorks like us end up with sort butts. Obviously this factor here does not lend to recognition extended to the Meteorologists.

Bingo... absolutely. That's all three, GGEM, GFS and now Euro... well, they've been doing this for days actually; it's been a matter of how much or how little. If you look at that run fro 00 to 200+ hours, it is doing that I think 4 times with a wave capable of dystopian cryo hell ... getting it's nuts cut off by the blade slicing in too close on it's heals. That is why the 20th probably goes like the 18 ...and the 22nd or whatever ...etc I mean we'll see if this changes. But that 20th look there proooobably doesn't get more amped and do the NJ thing... as the forcing's leaning against because of all this

Oh I know - sorry... that sounded like I was yelling at you, huh. haha I swear I was just using that as a diatribe catapult.

I'd like to get that vort tube's trajectory off the NJ coast as opposed to LI ... If so that would be a NJ bomb model low... Like 1987 November, but a cold profile.

yeah, I'm not sure temperature's a very good proxy for driving any conclusions. Particularly, if we just step back and look a this ... I'd really suggest we are idiosyncratically warm relative to the pattern. It should be colder than has been, in simple terms. Could be caused by changing circulations and ambient thermal states of the planet ... both of which are concomitant with CC (LOL). - something is altering these states of the planet, and it is a planetary scope and scaled observation ... so that screams for a common denominator. CC being a homogeneous state is a common denominator so if the shoe fits - sorry. You know, as an aside, I think a lot of the problems people have with CC isn't the Climate part. It's that everyone and the current zeitgeist is wrongly blaming everything on climate. Change is culprit. I'd argue it is a change that doesn't appeal enough to the physical senses, nor trigger inconvenience enough but different discussion. Change is just a measure of status from before, versus now. When comparing status from 1990, to status today, utilizing the exact same method for both, a change in status is academically proven: cooler then, warmer now. Now, if people had a fucking clue how that change can and does mechanically effect circulation modes, which are ...duh duh dunnn, thus moving around a warmer atmosphere ... there probably would be a lot less of this ridiculous debate This lunacy in reticence.

Ha! I didn't wanna bring it up. You're far more courageous than I throwin such verbal stones around in this murder hornet's nest

mmm Kinda fits my homage last autumn ... and last summer, and last spring, the previous winter and the years and seasons spanning some 10 years or more ... that these mid winter wind scarped shearing neg head shit show winters have been happening regardless of all traditional indicators. ( I'd put a wink emoji here but I find them to be abhorretly annoying if not a soupcon of condescension and that's not my intent - )

I just posted similar observations about that aspect re recency of the model runs a couple posts ago... I also think that the general user that is "emotionally" triggered by this engagement needs to wait on that changing... because the sooner they accept that is needed, that will go some ways toward ameliorating their angst - and improving their moods. But hey... sometimes I wonder if that's part of the fun for them. Leaving them selves open. I dunno

and frankly, that characteristic of negative interference, in and of itself, has been the only aspect that has demonstrated solid unflappable continuity.

I'm seeing nothing but negative interference among an anomalously fast S/W succession off the NE Pacific ... effectively preventing organized cyclogenesis either in time, or not at all, right out to the end of both this 12z GGEM and GFS operational model runs. The former goes out to D10 ... the succeeding week bears no significant change in that behavior by the GFS. Not sure what is causing it, but just observing 4 major waves passing through the +PNA trough domain in just 100 or so hours worth is an overly crowded tussle creating in-harmonic dissonance

I was just given you shit - I knew what you meant, and actually don't really care other than hopefully succeeding in being an annoying word Karen lol

"It's as if the satellite's 'eyeglasses' got better and better over that period," says Elias Chereque. "It looks like there's more snow now than there used to be—but that's only because the satellite kept getting better 'prescriptions' for its glasses. It looked like there was more snow, but that's not what was happening." https://phys.org/news/2026-01-atmospheric-physicists-error-widely-cited.html https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adv7926

just keep in mind that in 2015 we still hadn’t switched the pattern by this date … … which I guess you could have said that every January 11 since 2015, but we’ve been flirting with a lot of these tall positive PNA negative EPO looks with a generalized coupled minimum over Southern Canada for the end of the month

There’s only a few weeks in a month… so basically you mean the whole month?

Probably should change this thread's title to something like 'interest has shifted to the 18th'

It's a new one. the apex of winter = the nadir of snow results.

Heh ... Euro's out to 00 hours and already you can tell it's out to f all winter weather event enthusiasts right over

I'm gonna go ahead and take a different approach here, Ray. I mean I'm not trying to abase what your saying ... I'm just going go with persistence. It's hard to knock it. At some point, the onus is on reality to start proving the models wrong. Which ... they may not precisely be right in how it gets done, but the principle/law of least action ( Law of least action is real in physical philosophy btw - ) has been winning too long. Anytime the models put out a solution that at least shows how nothing will happen, time to start taking them seriously.

ho wow man... imagine the deliciousness in schadenfreude if this ukmet run scores. and before you ask, no - it's not coming up here given everything priceless -

ah.. gotcha... i guess we all want what we want from the weather. personally, i do so much outdoorsy stuff from bike rides to disk golf turneys to regular golf to tennis, and boogie boarding... all of which is mitigated by excessive dps. save for the waves perhaps. i've always been partial to those evenings in the summer where the air is kinetircally charged with out the dp weight. 7 pm and there's like this metallic warmth ...the breeze is soothing. pure energy. the sun is no longer blaring down like your shoulders like a 50 lb ream of roofing shingles, and your ballz aren't default stuck to the sides.

can i just interject/ask? does it have to be dews? why not just warm weather.