Typhoon Tip

That cold pop over the weekend is weird. That's like enclosing a -3 or deeper SD cold anomaly inside the size of a standard hurricane's πr² And moving fast ... in and out in a single afternoon. The other thing that's weird is that seldom do we observe a surface low develop over N Ontario and dive along a 170 deg azimuth to the NH Seacoast like that. It's ultimately not a big deal - yeah yeah it may cat paw at midriff terrain and non-stick snow on some summits for a coffee break, but that' hardly noteworthy. It's an under the radar highly unusual event if it goes down the way the guidance sets at this time. I still wonder if we aren't going to see a short term normalization of some of these aspects tho. We'll see.

I'm kinda looking for a "new" type of spring and summer heat that's been papered. "heat excursions" at higher latitudes have become a coherent/reproducible aspect of CC. That period of time suspiciously looks like an opportunity for one of those ridge nodal resonant features. UK is experiencing one now. And just like them, this one was not very well modeled either. They may be more sussed out by telecon trends - the old institutional way to 'sense' or see storms or warmth or cold etc.. at extended leads, because ( my conjecture) is that they are emerging within regions where the non-linear wave function is supplying - hence the "invisible" - a constructive feedback. The UK heat of these recent days didn't really show up in the guidance until 120 hours out. That's awesome in 1988, but 2026 ... mm, lukewarm skill. . It's anomaly distribution has been extreme, relative to date. Uuuusually bigger anomalous in the physics materialize early in the linearity of the guidance, and have a way of sticking around from a longer lead... Sandy showed up 13 days out. So did the 1993 so called super storm. There are other examples. These heat nodes at higher latitudes are an increasing global phenomenon, and the linear day-to-day logistics of events in the models are not seeing them like other events. There was a whopper in Siberia either last year or the previous ... The Pacific NW, 2020... there's a huge list. They are proportional in SD to non-heat-related bigs, but with historic heat... not storms, thus less well seen ahead of time. And have been surging in occurrence in the last 20 years. The fact that this heat over in the UK might have been been merely suggested, but then went kind of bonkers is a smoking gun attribution deal. The PNA dips to -1 for 3 or 4 days between June 6-ish and 10-like, while the EPO does a weird 3-day dive to -2 SD, all the while the NAO is positive. Every so often the operational runs do like that 18z yesterday... then of course fade. Seems like there's a region where the non-linear ( "tendencies" is the best way to describe that - I've called that correction vectoring in the past) forcing occurs in a domain from say IA-ME. It's unfortunately not a linear weather forecast, because it can't be. I'm probably over-explaining it. Simply put, we have to sense where these tendency fields are, and then watch for the models to avail.

Having married into a sub-Saharan genealogy that's about as close to living with heat as you really want to go, huh lol

Gettin there … tryin. i’m telling you there’s a heat signal there between 6th and 10th of June for somebody. Models are definitely being forced to hide it

I recall the 'omega' or omega quasi loading in the models going back 10 days though. The European heatwave,..not so much.

Right now is pretty close to flawless. If we were to break top 10ing down to the hour, this is a top 1 or 2 hour out of the year right now as we type and read.

77

74 here ... low was 51.

Discrete level synoptic observations re the late week/weekend thing This isn't the same or a very good analog in terms of behavior, nor anomaly intensity as 1977 May. Behaviorally, it's moving much faster comparing the present multi-model handling to back whence. It also appears to be shrinking in the cold anomalous depth as it is coming S. 1977 deepened some do to cyclogen height falls/feed-backs. Circumstantially, It's also not teleconnecting the same when considering the broader hemispheric mass-fields.

Didn't this happen last week? 80 to 90, Mon-Wed, followed by a piece of shit weekend? huh

all the way to 78 here in Ayer. wow. That 77 next door in KFIT's a pretty big MOS bust

I love that when that happens. We're suddenly alleviated here in the last hour. Steady morning rains bangin' away at the awnings had become sort of hypnotic. Somewhere between that state and a sun burst just splashed through the windows me must of finally escaped - or begun the break out process.

except that the trees will be dripping through 4 pm LOL

models keep insisting ...some more aggressively so than others, that the rains end and the sky parts over the next 3 hours, west to east. Even some hints at a rapid temp recovery. we'll see. Right now this band appears to be over performing compared to the NAM/Euro.

mm what stands out to me is that all these operational runs are wildly colder than their respective ensemble clusters at 850 mb by several degrees. Just a-priori on operational model guidance in meridian/slope flow types, they tend to carry an amplitude bias in the mid range to a significant correlation frequency. I'll concede if by hour 72 the means have deepened, otherwise for this type of synoptic hemisphere we've seen this kind of cold sell before.

June 6-10th ov/upper ma/ne

.45"

not sure about the resolution of this CPC product, nor therein ...how well it reflects the real physical state out there but this looks like the deeper warm plume's slightly shrinking

I think in world with so many moving parts in parallel, it should be just as possible to have MDW be fluid based upon whether god's being an asshole or not. Oh, rain - fuck you! next weekend's MDW. Rain again? fuck you again... keep on going until god stops being a fuckin asshole

man sometimes i frustrate that these models have been covertly corrupted to finding the coldest physical solution quantum mechanically possible in the CC world ... like to hide it or something. fuckin gfs piece of shit

Euro's been doing that all along

12z CMC trended better for summer enthusiasts ... it's something.

39 to 60... Funny, it was 38 here this am when I crept down the stair. 'The house is chillier down here', apparently having finally forgotten the warmth the other day. Typically it takes 30 or so hours for the 'thermal edifice memory' to fade. I debated flipping the compressor to heat mode. It was just 59. I don't think it's improved much. Something about May-22nd pisses me off enough to stubbornly prevent myself. SO... ah, 61 ..I may as well just open the windows now and let the warm air in. Winning

Subjective reply here but ...I'd even go worse than 'mehhh' I'd say there's a decent chance that's a piece of shit, down right frustration that pushes one's patients closer to pulling the trigger on a relo These protracted continental folding patterns that cause the Maritime to try and fist it's way back SW all the way to Florida thing that's been (apparently) a paradoxical /counter-intuitive consequence of CC ...are getting unbearable. As an aside, I had a feeling we would have a problem with this, this particular latter spring this year...because of the way the persistent upstream seasonal pattern behavior was. Since last October, really... I showed the evidence of this every month during the cold season, Nov-Apr... despite those 3 or 4 months having averaged ( Globally ) in contention for 3rd warmest since Humanity became a geological force in Earth's history ( eh hm), the NE CONUS/SE Canada were persistently showing relative offset cooler than everywhere else. This was true whether we were technically above average those months, or not. It's like always coming in last? I still see vestigial markers for that still going on, tho harder to see it. It's some kind of fractal in the hemisphere that hasn't broken completely down... and having these back ward carving Maritime troughs like the current Euro and GFS are doing is some kind of "non-Markovian" bias playing out.