Typhoon Tip

May sneak in a fair Saturday out ahead of a fast moving low pressure... Could be mild sun depending. Sunday - for now - looks dicey at best. Typical spring-time warm front retardation smears cold rain and even ptype mixing in CNE... From a larger perspective ..there is a chance Sunday may improve in the outlook - it's day 6. There's time. There is an impressive ridge signaled; the models have been shirking the warm potential, then plunging the cold in when breaking the ridge down. Seems a bit biased but ...we've sort of been finding colder solutions since last October, so -

should go down in history as the spring of the gradients. it’s like 85 on the warm sides … 37 on the colds across every low pressure passing thru.

Where do you go to see ptypes off that product? I mean, I’m not even sure if that model’s very good to be honest - I don’t frankly see how it crossing the quantum uncertain principal/chaos threshold of limiting returns just because it’s so-called AI … unless somebody can explain that, it’s just another gadget. Still I mean, it’s another products maybe worth looking at.

A month ago we'd be talking the best pattern for winter storms the whole year... Not so sure on April 9 - 15th though... Probably just ensures cold misery

yeah... spectacularly warm pattern showing up deeper into spring now -

OH I've completely prepped myself mentally for tomorrow's barrel bottom abysmality - and kudos to the modeling tech ambit, which overall ... hasn't given anyone much reason to delude themselves for days of persistence with this set up. So much so in fact my attitude's turned to embrace it. Great weather nerding opportunity! There's going to be some pretty fantastic meteorological aspects of this weekend's affairs, both in the larger synoptic specter, but also what's likely going to be observed at the discrete scales. I mean, it is not inconceivable that the lowest 100 mb of the atmosphere is if anything cold enough along Rt 2 for icing, while NYC is nearing 80 F. This somewhat reminds me of the extraordinary differentials that occurred in late March, 1998. Unlike this time, that one was a real backdoor front. This, btw, is not that. The front is in fact laying down across pretty much my house, during today. It just doesn't ever go back N as a warm front in the present guidance mean. "back dooring,", in the sense of the verb, is more for whence the front then bends around and starts collapsing SW through CT during tomorrow - where ever that happens, they could doing a 70 to 38 F hour. Or, it's possible that the whole thing is back built more than guidance by 12z. Some runs, like the ICON...are south of NYC - that's not exactly climo unfriendly in late march with a +PP toting polar air off a Canadian snow shield. It's a nerd's extravaganza of testable aspect tomorrow. LOL I figure in the end, who cares. One fuckin' weekend ain't hurtin' much. Let it ice and sleet itself to a bullshit hide the season on March 29th all it wants ... Summer is still coming.

Yeah, I was going to drop this little gem off this morning, myself ... but I see you beat me to it. This CC apocalypse is slow moving. Human relative observation doesn't see it moving, but on scales of a 100 years or so, this is moving very fast. again again and again and again ... the primary reluctance and/or belated response, and/or denailism ... and/or [add enabling reason not to react here], it is all made possible because people don't respond unless they feel pain. That simple. Biology on this planet, from the paramecium to the larger order and everything in between, are programmed to react based up perceptions that are directly fear-triggering some instinctual signal, or what causes discomfort. Humans do have a capacity for cause-and-effect awareness, one that far exceeds any other organisms of this world that show any semblance of the same ability - it's what really separates us from the chorus. Not that other shit with tools and language... But there is just this one nagging flaw, other than the trope of "being human." We are often in hesitation when that ability to foresee cost, competes with the immediate gratification of reward. This hesitation may be our undoing. It would be nice if there really was a kind of super consciousness known as Gaia running the show... and it had any interest in preserving us - but with little or no evidence to the contrary ... it such an agency does exist, it's clearly quite contented with us fucking up the world and leaving the keys on the counter upon exit. Otherwise, a burning bush may tell us something about the, hey! ... wait a second - I think it would be astounding if all this trillion dollar history of SETI search efforts at last found a world that had all the aspects of advancing industrial footprints, alas was completely absent of any life above bacterial decay ... Setting foot upon such a world would reveal hollowed winds as the only sound, other than the occasion pieces of edifice crumbling to the ground. It wouldn't take long to deduce what's happened. Unfortunately, at several 10's of light-year's travel it would take 30,000 years for conventional velocity to find the bones in the rubble. Science Fiction authors of the early and mid last Century were amazingly visionary. A cinema in the 1950s, called "The Forbidden Planet" It was not for an environmental catastrophe, per se, but as the plot thickened, "killed off by a mysterious force.." Hmm, in principle ...something the indigenous, the so-called "Krell," had created thousands of years before humans arrived in their somehow faster than light (maybe warp drive) exploreration, killed them all off in some sort of sweeping disaster... Stop there - no need to go further to see the metaphoric, comparative value. On geological times scales? - this CC could certainly be construed, and realized (being the self-afflicting tragedy) as a similar sweeping "correction". And, we almost don't even need the metaphoric comparison; strikingly similar, the Krell's agent of their own demise was something eerily alike an AI run amok.

To generate funds ? why -

Oh I'm sure each rendition has it's own extra special shittiness

Heading into week 2 is a disaster but that's probably bullshit at this range

12z Euro looks quite a bit different than that 00z run for later next week. Pretty significant l/w ridge with less trough incursions up the EC ... surface fronts probably too far E into the ridge given that depiction by obviously that sort of detail ...actually the whole pattern, are negotiable at this range.

not to be a dick but ... I mean I admit to it too - something about these GFS solutions seem awfully cold for time of year, recent year's worth of spring behaviors... CC/attribution. And probably there is some acclimation bias, too. Yet, we keep getting days like today. The GFS may be wrong with the details, but it's not very "napey" when the wind blows. It's annoying. So it's kind of right in a way. A cold day that is confusing, or perhaps obscuring from attention that we are still ending up +1 on these annoyingly chilly days. What's really going on there is that we are "frigid" relative to those three very real aspects. Just not necessarily in deference to climatology. That's like a the GFS is right about a cold pattern that's getting lost from credit for getting at least that much of it right.

Yeah the meteorology of this boundary circumstance is pretty fantastic 33 in Lowell and nearing 80 in HFD that’s kinda awesome really if that sets up like that.

Man … this airmass is legit. 37/19 post equinox full sun approaching 10am is grade for a-hole in the earth New England shitshow climate incarnate.

The NAM actually does have a different synoptic scenario - not a lot but crucially so. It has a slightly stronger surface wave moving along the boundary along a farther N latitude - actually way up by PF-Dryslot transit. The 12z precariously dangling boundary that's sort of right on top of me actually ...ends up over N Nashua NH by 10 and to 2pm. Two cautions though... The NAM typically has a N/NW bias at this range with just about everything that it does. The other is probably an even greater limitation on confidence, it's the NAM. I don't know but expressively it's like 1::100 return rate for the a warm solution to work given a NAM vs the world competition in this regard. Yeah, it's true that the NAM [ in theory ] should have better surface resolution when it comes to cold undercutting antics... however, that is moot if the wave does in fact scoot by that far N - I'm just not sure that's not a NAM fantasy. If that corrects S along with the front, the NAM would then be the more aggressive and the BD slams through Chesapeake Bay

... It's a sharpy differentiated air mass situation this weekend, particularly Saturday. Actually some of the bigger lateral gradients, across the boundary, as we are capable of physically generating around here - mainly the warm side is being rather eye-poppish. I like this UKMET's Rembrandting, call it the "Portrait Of Frustration" ... But it's also among the warm guidance. The GFS and less popular ICON as others were noted are suppressing the boundary farther S than this below. As I said yesterday ... climo, and experience, both, for late March do not support any warmth N of central NJ - particularly when you have +PP loading going on across southern Ontario, spilling around the corner of the Whites/Greens topography. The models are likely not correct in the implied vector pointing SW due to the fluid mechanics of DVM curl - that is a built in perpetual restoring force in this cold suck circumstance around here. The only way to combat that is to change the synoptics. so we'll see ... good luck

Euro trying to go N with the front on Saturday, too - in fact...it looks like it gets up to S VT/NH so much of SNE busts into warm sector, 18z Saturday Actually edit: it's not as far N as it looked from that broader synoptic perspective. It's about the same as where the GFS places it. Significant gradient through the region

time to force feed a random poster a bunch of philosophy no one asked for ... When one implements a combination of climatology with experience, this weekend's doesn't have a prayer of elevating temperatures as high as the Euro vision ...anywhere N and E of about middle NJ About ... oh, 1 time in 100, warmth wins when looking at a 108 hour table setting that features pure arctic crystal air slabbed into Ontario, back built by actual sfc +PP. ... so, we'll see.. Over the next 10 days, the EPO rises into a warm mode(positive), while he PNA settles into a warm mode (negative), per the ensemble mean derivatives from both the EPS and GEFs. Yet, among the operational model versions, we have been seeing these persistently modeled impressive cold slabs at continental sized air masses, dumped into southern Canada, replete with +PP to implicate the correction vector is always pointed S ... The ens/indexes have seasonality + some of other argumentative stuff to support it. These op versions have an antecedent cold winter ( relative to the world) persistence that despite some mild days recently, doesn't really "feel" like it's let completely go of the nut grip. Not when you see this f-up verkokta hemisphere below... This is a minefield of reasons not to assume it warms up until something erases this the hemisphere in lieu of an entirely new paradigm. I'm not sure what that will take ... maybe July ? For that matter, how the hell the numerical calculations for the index fields end up with a +EPO/-PNA with this is really rather remarkable. It's like the circulation mode is designed to be cold using warm correlators

If it's showing that at this time range, it will be farther S when reality rolls around

Yep … can’t even celebrate the amazing achievement of zero snow in March by sqeezing off a single petty turd flake to steal that too …

It was only one run … it could seesaw back to the previous look just as well

Not much chance of any meaningful warm up on this 12z op Euro.

Short answer, no. But, why would that be the case? Not sure how the CO2 --> O2 exchange ... keeping the pre IR ( industrial revolution) ratio of these critical elements in check, would lead to an Ice Age "without" human involvement. That doesn't logically follow - I wonder if what you mean are natural processes? Yeah, ice ages come and go over millennium by other processes. But the human role in driving climate, now, is proving both mathematically and by observation to be a pernicious agency for destruction. It's a dire circumstance that its moving just slow enough that the idiocracy can't see it happening in real , thus undeniable space and time. Human are not controlling the climate in any absolute sense. That's not what's going on there. They are modulating by their surplus green house gas emissions... Modulating in a bad way by surplus and temperature response having faster than adaptation ultimately... so the exchange mechanisms can't keep up. Species can adapt to rapidity of temperature change... etc etc

oh of course. again...just using the example