Typhoon Tip

late to the party today but it may also be a shifted to far south for that, too

MHT 100R BOS 99R PVD 97R CON 97R BDL 96TR

Oh yeah, those east west running roads down here like Route 2 or the Pike and Route 9 in Framingham they absolutely broil even at 70 mph they’re sometimes 5 abv NWS

I'm a little leery of the cooler August ideas ... I see the cool-down as being typically oversold by longer range models. Something more seasonal/average, then fading into Act III .... then we "break back" Friday rain not included - It's just my personal sense of where this is going. Those pesky non-linear aspects ( trend and trend' ) keep trying to lower heights in the Pac NW as kind of rest state and every time we deflate the eastern ridge, that tends to force it back. So right now the linear structures happen to look autumnal but I'd like to wait that out and see

mine was flopping 101 ... 100

yesterday's mid 90s followed by a 95-100 today, and probably at least low 90s tomorrow ... this is a pretty damn potent heat wave. 2nd place on the season.

actually the GFS nailed this from 2 or 3 days ago. I brought it up/posted that the model was roasting on one of those runs - but i haven't paid attention since.

KEWR 100

KFIT 99

KBOS might have touched 99

You're gonna need to wait a lot longer

there it is! 90 at ORH. it's real now ha

Big Heat verifies at FIT ...and at local sites around Ayer. 97 and mean of 96 respectively as of 1:20

it's fake until ORH ping's 90 heh

Mm the signal performed ... it just didn't extend as far as it could have, given those indicators as they appeared at the beginning of the month. There's multiple sources available on the web for cumulative means, but this blw is from the PRISM group/Oregon State U. It shows through the 28th where the anomalies, relative to normal climatology, have amassed over the last 4 weeks. This is impressive enough ... given this is a month's worth of aggregated data. There were probably individual days per the course that were greater, as there were days lower than this mean anomaly. It's going to be tough to put up mean anomalies that extend much above +5 in July, compared to say ...March, because July is a perennial climate ceiling in the temperature curve. It is more constrained by broader systemic limitations at the higher side.

Should be put on the mileXmile sized headstone over humanity's grave ... along with all the other dark ironies that fucking made it happen

Looked to me like the whole blend bumped S a little bit. That may not be caused by repositioning the track of that frontal mess, per se. It could also be an artifact of that amplitude flattening - a problem we've discussed ad nauseam in the past, where the models sometimes have trouble maintaining mid/ext outlook amplitude when relaying into short ranges. Hard to tell precisely, as this scenario with rain/amts on Thur/Fri looks pretty sensitive to very subtle physical perturbation, anyway, so - I just see the 00z UKMET type solution as not impossible at least in principle. It may be overdoing that suppression some sure.

you know... nother aspect occurs to me. if that Friday boundary ends up much farther N it's liable to pop up to an ALB - D.E.M. synoptic ordeal. that changes the landscape of things ... It'd introduce a bit of a Bahama Blue circulation mode

Not in this case. sorry - I'm not talking about some kind of fascist opinion suppressing here. Everyone has the right to think, feel, believe whatever they want. The presumption that everyone is entitled to an opinion as actually being heard? That is entirely false. Most particularly when the post the failure having been iteratively and ad nauseam explained! Being heard, much more so, seriously considered - and being worthy of time expense - is constrained by objective reality and facts - merely because there are those that don't like, or don't understand the weight of the latter ...there is no intrinsic logic or right therein to have their opinions matter. Brian Cox, renowned physicist/philosopher roundly put it eloquently: " The correct statement of individual rights is that everyone has the right to an opinion, but crucially, that opinion can be roundly ignored and even made fun of, particularly if it is demonstratively nonsense. " he's damned right!

hm looks like a potential prelude. Like it may be a setting the table for something when we say we shoulda known

I'm a little suspicious the GFS is over mixing ... It's got 2-m DPs under 60 F N of the Pike around 21z here shortly, where it is presently 67 to 71. It's an interesting test for tomorrow - it's possible that mixing DPs out may be goosing the kinetic temps

it's baaaaaaaack

I've seen the ICON do this at more times than I care to remember and it's seldom correct. The best way I can describe a cause - though it's purely speculation ... - is that it's really like that model confuses the Labrador current as an atmospheric phenomenon, such that when given any reason to turn the flow NE/E like most guidance are doing on Friday, it ends up with that plume of subsurface SSTs as an atmospheric tsunamis. Partially sarcasm there of course... it's more likely that it's got a bias in proficiency and speed to thermodynamically fix/couple the lower levels to the water

Lol ...well, there's that too. Different subject. I'm just sick of hearing the name "Bastard"i at all at this point after so many years of it and his unrelentingly irresponsible vomit. He's another candidate for a general all-purpose set to ignore by society et al - even tho such states of existence are unlikely. It's a numbers game. With 8.5 billion human being targets for his shit, there's going to be a sufficiently large number embedded in there that likes the taste of it no matter what -

Not uncommon for DPs to mix down as the sun goes up. It all depends on how deep the moisture ( WV density ) is in the column. At first, if there is an intervening dry region in the sounding in the 900 mb level ( about mid way up the mixing depth for the day/BL), this air will 'turn over' with the initial convection cycling, mix in, and lower the surface. But if this layer is not present, there'll be less of that, too. It all depends. There's no question we are in a deep warm sector sounding, regardless.