Typhoon Tip

seems like I've been saying that myself for 10 days worth of runs ... should'a done been here by now

Looks more like a quasi, CC-mutilated winter (now..), moves to a quasi, CC-mutilated spring next this week. Then we'll see if the deeper summer look in the 10+ Euro has any legs. But, I've seen that heat look in the D12 range now on some seven different model cycles, Euro and GFS, since a week ago yesterday in the guidance, and it's yet to actually move closer in... I'm starting to wonder if this is going to be one of those summers where we're always chasing a heat wave in the outer guidance, and finally catch up to it september 9 through the 17th type bs

usgs has nothing...

I would change "There's a lot we don't..." in that bold to "There is nothing we" I've come to the critical opinion that anything and everything that has not actually passed down through the crucible of biological evolution is interminably hostile to biological process - just because it passed some control groups in the 1960s for 20 minutes..., days, weeks, months or a few years? The celerity of reaction, or lack therein, was an idiotic presumption of safeness. Of course ... tests were passed for the arriving industry to make billions of dollars... Proof, nano plastic particles ... chemically inert in a short T, but look out! they've crossed the reproductive barriers and now, human ovaries and testicles are (gametes+polyethylene terephthalates) ... weeeee Meanwhile, global birthing rates are plummeting among societies that have benefited from the Industrial Bubble over the last 80 years - which is pretty much everyone at this point. ahheh people think it's sociological but ....mmm no. The mass population is not realistically that conscientious about sex and are still fucking. Fact of the matter is, less conception is happening post orgasm. Or how about the totally safe glyphosates - the weed control miracle for "Stepford" lawns. Oh I'm sure they knew it was poisonous above some mouse-tested PPM. They just didn't think about it in terms of decades, did they? High fuckum Fructose corn syrup ... I cut everything out of my diet that has any simple carbs, including that piece of shit industrial goop, and I haven't had an aura-based migraine now in a year. Suffered those motherfuckin headache type since 8 or 9 years of age... trying everything from hypnotism to diet and back? Stopped industrial refined sugar. Done. Took 'till middle age suffering the Grain Industrial Complex' manipulating grip on culture - and I found that out by accident, too. I had to cut out all simple carbs to correct a high A1C blood report, which scared the shit out of me because my mother died last year from complications from T2D. My A1C plummeted. I lost 30 pounds. Cured a life long affliction with aura migraines. All human industry is toxic given time. That's my beef -

51 down here... but we're sneaking a d-slope drying enough that some sun splashes are showing up on vis and ground truth

You're dealing with pinheads dude. We have to be careful when writing/saying turn of phrase like that, because when dealing with narrow minded people, they always ...in fact, seldom ever do, get the nuance and humor, and think too literally like a robot: oh, this person recommends a deadly disease over sun screen. yeah, in that simplistic interpretation ... you can see why they are polarizing. haha Stupidity of that caliber is literally, not merely figuratively, an issue/problem in the masses - we've breached a critical dipshit threshold of bulk "density" ( pun intended-) where the denigration of 'public intellect' is also nearing state of inducing social collapse. The expression of "weaponizing ignorance" ... it never really should be able to do so in the first place. We can get into why the epidemic of dumb fuck drooling nimrodery and cave-man fear -induced line toeing, and believing manipulation tactics because of that idiocracy we've found the U.S. in a state of... has seized control, but I think this run on sentence is plenty LOL

I've noticed there's not enough projection of the future of AI, and too much critique over the status of what it means now... ? Not you per se - but this statement of yours reminds me of it - so just using it to launch a bit here... The technology is primitive. As spectacular as it may or may not come across to the laity, if not dismissed by computer science oriented types who flippantly describing it as Google on steroids ... this isn't where this tech is going. Society needs awareness and practical imagination, most importantly ... preparedness. 18 months, that's so far been the leap of capacitance intervals. It may slow down ... but not likely. It is in fact more likely to speed up, because it breaks through ability thresholds - positive feedback. In general, this technology also comes along with a huge, huge feedback toward its own improvement potential, and these leaps of ability observed, stunning for just the last 4 years, certainly supports that argument. I wrote a missive about this above ... likely tl;dr for some, but the gist of it is ... there's almost no value in sitting back and limiting it's existence in any way, when the future of it has almost boundless, prevalent potential ... I mean, despite all humanity achievements and conceits, to date? Almost meaningless when we start triggering immortality, dimensional travel - yes these sci fi visions are no longer just imagined do to the synergistic advantage of future improvements lending so favorably toward discoveries we cannot at this time really quantify very well. We are coming out of the technological dark ages, really. We're standing at threshold of door way with so much bright light the shimmering gallery behind us is rendered almost black. So bright the glare drowns out anything specific on the other side - yet the light will draw us through, anyway. The ramifications there, they are utterly unknown. Wait until QC comes on line and these systems are then fused to its "god-like" access. Being whimsy with the language there but seriously, I don't think there's enough "practical imagination" in visualizing what that reality will be. Most folks are being skeptical if not dismissive, and I think that's a waste of time when/if being aware, no ... "being prepared" for the synergy between man and machine in this case, creating an arena where new discoveries are unknown to most, and so (likely) unguarded, because they were not anticipated, while popping up in multitude ... What is technological utopia, and does the darkness of human nature allow a non-competitive "state of provision"? Where none gain at the 'expense' of even equity living for all. That's sort of the Gene Roddenberry future... minus the enslaved robots - they will ( it is thought...) have no moral compunctions about their status, because they are merely very capable automatons doing the grunt word. While the future AI, after the dawn of seamless simulacra, does the rest... How will this effect an economy? How will human kind incentivize itself? There are no life-propelling systems in nature that do anything without fulfilling a reward circuitry drilled into primal satisfaction - we are enslaved to our evolutionary background. Which may be in conflict with doing anything merely for the virtuosity of it. And so, human nature will likely intervene. We are passing through an evolutionary stage. One that humanity may even be unwittingly causing.

Interesting ... 2012 was one of if not the warmest total spring to summer transition years on record - least I thought it was...

I don't believe the recent winter hemisphere's would physically allow that to happen. This is happening now because the flow is slower ...everywhere. The entire manifold of the hemisphere still has energetics, and because the flow foot is lower, this allows for curvatures at smaller radii It's complex but we have to understand atmospheric motion in x, y and z coordinate system. The z is the omega term ( upward vs downward vertical motion )... x and y is the direction, w-e-n-s. When there is only so much uvm velocity available to rotating fields... this limits the amount of mass that can move up for inward moving air. Tornadoes, for example, rotate so fast because they have shit ton of vertical acceleration moving upwards - stretching the vortex in the vertical effectively speeds it up. Think figure-skater pulling their arms in, and the spin faster. Such that cyclonic motion has a relatively constant mass moving in the vertical. When x - y gradient is large --> faster flow of wind, but this exceeds the restoring mass moving upward; it can't flow in tighter curved space, because the mass moving in can't rise any faster. So instead of conserving the energy in the smaller scales, it ends up lengthening the long wave lengths with lots of jet velocity, and less small space curvatures - note, I did not say, "no" smaller space curvatures. We're dealing in offsets here... In recent years the gradient between ~30 N and 60 N has been extreme. This has power very strong westerlies through the deep tropospheric means. This has meant faster moving events. More sheared events. Event closed lows behavior more like "quasi" closed lows, because they move right along like rolling balls... These are just notable behaviors I'm listing...

I remember seeing this and posting it last winter ... I'm wondering if we're still seeing some vestigial tendency to be strangely cold in the local space, comparatively

this low has bombed down to 1004 mb

I suspect Ineedsnow has undiagnosed ( or diagnosed ... either way) hypertension. As soon as that corrects down with medication and/or lifestyle change, or a combination of both, he'll start getting rib chills and cold hands like the rest of normalcy. Such that these claimed sunny and 45 F "beautiful" days will epiphany the reality, this is piece of shit weather in May. LOL.

It'll be interesting to see where May's monthly averages stand come Tuesday morning next week, after this near 7 day onslaught of grossly under performing temperatures. HFD corrected from 5 and change all the way down to 3.3 as of today, and ORH is down to 2.6... These may seem like big numbers, but they were 1.5 to 2X larger than this just last week, so this is correcting pretty fast. Today may end up being something extraordinary like a -20 day... tomorrow, not much better. These are wagon negatives to pull along the averages yet.

45 masturbatory degrees ... and by the fucked way, the very most recent climate monitoring/reports have the global temperatures still essentially edging the upper edge of historically hot. So ... whatever this is ( most likely another CC cold meander phenomenon...) it might be only happening here - any other hapless picked-on regions of the world notwithstanding.

just grousin' I think we've been in it all week. Gaia's jammed our heads up its ass since Monday -

Wunder's cartoon radar has snow pixels dappling the scan over the lower Greens

meh, front versus back of the balls - even stench

It barely gets below 996 mb ... ha. I get the enthusiasm for weather events and applaud that, but... she ain't no tempest. It's really just a perfect timing of large scale synoptics that takes a piece of shit low and enables it to seriously f-up almost 3 consecutive days. Welcome to spring in New England

yeah, wtf ... 2005 had 3 nor'easters spanning 2.5 weeks from the 10th to the end of the month. Each was below 995 in depth ...I remember. That product Ben used says ERA5; wonder about that source.

I wish there was a functional feature to block a chosen person's ability to place an emoji upon the down right corner of these posts... So when some -SAD insufferable incel puts a 100% approval on a hate post it tells them, 'seek help' instead. LOL

The epicosity of suck is absolute today... 45 F, slate gray with wind at times has utterly 0 redeeming value. Between today, tomorrow, right thru early Saturday is basically rock bottom for this spring if you ask me. Hell if it'd done this crap in April, I'd almost give it a pass because April's abysmality ( if that could ever be a word ) leaves no expectation anyway so it's kind of living up to it's billing.. But this? In late May? Nope, it is too late in the year to be save rep-wise. Pure putrescence

Making 'merica great agi'n has NWS short staffed and stressed to substantive analysis ?

Yeah ... a donut stuffing machine of a CCB stackin snow totals to nut sacks while you're sunny at 7 F looking at a dense cirrus shield on your southern horizon sounds 'bout right

small consolation perhaps but in looking over the qpf from various products this has a real chance at either maxing or being prolific enough right where there is lingering deficits/ongoing drought monitoring up in ne ma/se nh

If loop below it really exemplifies... really is about as bad a synoptic predicament as possible without a comet impact on Earth ... https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/