Typhoon Tip

I think the distinction that global SSTs have "peaked and are starting to fall" isn't very well supported if one is using the graph above. Looking back along the character of that curve, it is highly 'serrated' with interim periods that were both increasing(decreasing) but quickly resumed the previous dynamic. I don't disagree with what you were saying, overall ... just speaking to that point, specifically. We need more time to determine if that descent qualifies as that.

It’s one of those uneasy laughter moments…

I was musing to self last week ... maybe the ending of the over-lapsing solar cycle minimum, nearing its end, might have some at least partial factorization in this. The solar mins are defined as period of decreased solar activity - less than the longer term average number of sunspot behavior. That also includes lowering(increasing) numbers of SFs and CME activity, depending on min or max, respectively. In addition, solar cycles effect the average brightness of the sun, which directly raises or lowers the energy to the Terran surfaces - as much as 1 watt/sqr-metter; this variation when all told after absorption by the total Earth system, ends up adjusting the temperature up or down by as much as 0.1 degrees C. So, I'm wonder the following: In 2005, the impending solar minimum warned as being a super-position along two temporal variances, the 11-year, and a longer period 22-year periods. The collocation of these period oscillations at the time lent to the educated assumption, an unusually quiet period was imminent, the character of which meant minimums, over the course of ensuing 15 to 20 years, would be of greater negative magnitude than any intervening maximums intervals within. What is also interesting is that the planetary temperatures have risen straight through these lasts 15 to 20 years, despite the 'educated assumption.' In other words, what happened to our -0.1 C offset? The thing is, 0.1 C isn't a terribly large number, but... if it were being suppressed by a more dominant global warming signal, that could account for that. But now, suppose there was a "synergistic" effect, due to several non-competing factors that suddenly came into existence nearing the spring of 2023? Basically when you superimpose, in time, favorable disparate forces, the outcome can be more, sometimes much more, than the sum of the individual forces...etc... One source being the implied increase in the total irradiance uptake nearing the end of the solar min ( I haven't seen any calculation/papers on that specifically ... bear with the speculation here ). The other perhaps being, there are numerous articles ( paraphrasing papers on publishing sources like phys.org etc ) that outlined secondary and tertiary possible +thermal responses directly or indirectly Tonga eruption related. Poor timing perhaps in having that event coincide with even a subtle uptick in the solar flux; even though this latter aspect is small, dumping more energy into a 'prone system,' one that is repeatedly demonstrating it will warm up with lesser physically exerted excuses to do so? Such that then combining ... may not end so well. This could be a cocktail of positive feedbacks contributing to a synergistic global thermal response. Which, I'm sure physicists that skulk around the web for ideas that they, with the wherewithal to investigate far more readily, ...will publish a paper that does not credit the source for their inspired idea LOL ... kidding. But one way or the other, I would not be surprised if something of a publication surfaces soon that begins to connect a synergistic/superposition hypothesis in why the world witness that global heat burst last year. The thing that is peculiar to me is the oceanic SST aspect of that last March-May abrupt warming event. It wasn't just the tropical Pacific ENSO ... the AMO and the PDO and southern hemisphere oceanic basins ... well away from the tropics, also simultaneously warmed. Which is why - in part - I enter that solar variance is a plausible, at least partial factor there. You know, what ended the Cretaceous era and the mass extinction that occurred along that boundary is largely attributed to a large asteroid or comet impact. However, as paleo biology will point out, the system was becoming unstable for them prior to the advent of that rather enormous straw on the camel's back. The idea of setting up the Earth systems with proneness, then having poor timing in multiple factors arrive to bring the house down ... that is not unprecedented. Science has exposed other mass extinction events also having multiple overlapping aspects taking place, where back-ground adaptation rates where exceeded by the deleterious assaults in multitude. Whether we want to believe that human activity plays any particularly crucial role in setting that table this time or not, that is not coming under the microscope in this op ed. I'm just wondering - in general - if we are bearing witness in real time, of another overlapping. We are, as already defined by empirical data, living ... or perhaps more so than we are even cognitively aware, "surviving" a mass extinction event. Creepy to suggest ... but perhaps all this is already academic.

This is pretty cool .. https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/19/business/india-adani-green-energy-plant-climate-intl-hnk/index.html

Yeeeah... it's any analog method. They're all suspect when the climate's changing. That's should be presumptive, really. Doesn't seem to be, though, certainly not enough. I don't know why ... well, I do know why - it's because in the heart of hearts, and projection effort fails in varying form and function to objectively consider that - whether that is just native capacity or subjectivity, or just needing to learn. I dunno. Maybe it isn't presumptive but to me, "old paradigm no longer beget new paradigm" is kind of a duh thing.

This fits into that discussion about northern latitudes being far enough inside climate thresholds that a warmer than normal season projection doesn't mean there can't be wintry results. This is going to be more true ( obviously ) up there than down here. But the actual "threshold" in terms of where-so geographically isn't a hard line on the map, either, particularly when elevation gets into the discussion. Said threshold is really the inflection point along a probability curve, where it drops off sharper/rarefies more obviously so. One wonders where that is in 2024

It's unlikely survive the relay from mid into shorter range based on model history. That area geography up there has it even worse than we do with mid range 'big deal' verification. we'll see

Too cold today ... but the sun is fierce. Happy Julian calendar spring!

Such vast, putrid continuity demonstrations ... can't rule out or in any solution, really. With that, the probability of this (abv) being more right than wrong is very low for the time being.

maybe not ... models may be in the midst of collapsing in favor of those prior Euro runs. have to see -

Significant changes on the 12z runs so far across the board... ICON, GGEM ...GFS all show less QPF and or differences in the handling of the total weekend scenario. Maybe the Euro wasn't so wrong originally? Either way, this continuity change isn't exactly confidence inspiring -

There's some plausibility to that, Ray - just observational/anecdotally I mean, I saw 3 different -EPO episodes this year ( and have in recent winters, too - ) where the subsequent cold loading appeared to be 'sheared off' before it could really penetrate deeper into latitude. The total hemispheric mode of circulation having the speed saturation is hugely problematic to that - more theoretically... Because, when the flow is fast, there are less residence and/or standing wave phenomenon... That's physically provable/ mathematical. Anyway, in practical terms ... that means the teleconnector modes are not in situ long enough before they are being forced to change. It takes time for the lower troposphere to change ... but if a -EPO is blowing up before it has time to deliver ...that's that shearing.

It's starting to show up way out there. I've said this before but whatever ... things can turn around and get real warm faster than most may think - I think of it as a microcosm of last year's outre planetary heat burst - when the La Nina collapsed and the Earth seemed to respond as though it were always taut like a rubber band ... catapulting in the other direction, both air and sea in every direction. It wouldn't be the same cause ... but in principle, it shows how even large systems can abruptly change when removing a suppressive influence. We happened to migrate into a -EPO that would have been more pleasing to the pallet if it had arrived around Dec 10, no doubt. Now? there are a few struggler die-hards that think it's okay to go ahead and snow in June ... but by and large, I think the consensus sentiment leans toward getting on with summer affairs. Oh well... it was going to be one thing or the other in New England springs Anyway, when the EPO vanquishes - and it is a pretty hard stop in all the teleconnector sources ... - an abrupt change isn't unprecedented.

12z Euro flips bird at GFS ...

we laugh ..but, when AI intersects with QC ( quantum computing ) things could get dicey. the easy kill switch is to have an EMP generator on stand-by but still -

meh...moving really fast at middling dynamics in those solutions. where ever that snows < 1800' elevation is probably slush glops slipping off bent down pine bows with not much in the roads and silvery see through slushy lawns. probably do okay in the backside/upslope

Yeah... I'm saying the influence of a "warm ocean world" is influencing - or should be considered if that hasn't already begun. But that just means influencing. As far as parsing out specifically who gets/got what and where ... that's probably something metaphysical haha.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/18/climate/ocean-heat-record-year-climate-intl/index.html ...granted, it's CNN - so always side eye source. However, if the scalars are right, they're right. That said ( supposing that to be so) eventually this factor will overwhelm everyone's season forecast efforts and I suggest that already in partiality it has been "whelming" LOL more and more so over the last decade (probably longer)

I think it's because the way AI works ... It's "processor" happens in layers. Each one passes a probability test before exiting that level. As the 'content' passes through subsequent levels, it gradually filters down to the very best most likely candidate solution - having considered all these tiers of objective reality. This applies to everything from simple question and answering, to the immense problem solving requirements of AI tasking Along the way, one of its challenges is the goal of "simulacra" - the ability to appear as though a given exchange is taking place with an actual consciousness (the ability to "fool" a Turing tester into believing they are communicating with a human). This level uses the Internet as the source, causing that Noah's revenge solution. In listening, reading, ... analyzing billions of conversation modes and models, all at once ... it became like winning the lottery? Even a probability that is based upon a billion deck shoe, someone eventually lands all the numbers and wins. In this case, every rational mode of conversation in the world, happen to be asleep ... with the exception of the overnight American Weather Forums banter. So to the AI ... 300 feet of melted equivalent QPF is entirely reasonable -

The ICON and JMA and GGEM are all more like the operational Euro in suppressing that southern wave into a cut-off deeper in latitude ( sparing us the horror of 38 F rain for days of internment )... The 'AIF does offer some support for the GFS, which is clearly attempting to control the mind of god in getting us to the above description anyway it can. I guess since being porked is a uniquely New England spring aspect, getting to that result will succeed, having transcended both pillars of modern physical laws ( General Relativity and QM) to get it done

I dunno what that model's acclaim is supposed to be ( Euro AI) other than the "A" and the "I" in the title, but I haven't seen a model run of that thing yet that didn't have a cold biased wintry profile that only gets deeper and more triggering out in time. I'm not impressed with it so far

Pretty elaborate differences between the GEFs and EPS, differences that are also well enough defined in operational Euro and GFS, too. About half the GEFs members agree that a substantive southerly wave will get captured in the wholesale trough amplifying through the Lakes ...getting sucked up along the lead baroclinic axis there. The other half look more like the EPS's recent means ... ...which, the vast majority do not lift any southerly wave at all. That is interestingly divergent for ensemble systems to be 120-144 hours out with that amount of discordance. Meanwhile, the operational Euro doesn't lift any southern system up at all, either - not a shocker ... the Euro ensemble system is typically less dispersive. Most just drift the southerly wave E off the lower M/A to spin down a slow death somewhere between Goergia and Bermuda. The differences start really at 120. Both model systems identify that southerly wave, coherently taking into the Tennessee Valley area, but that's where the products diverge pretty significantly. It's unclear which way we should go... A pure operational Euro solution spares us a horrible weekend. It may be cool, with a big late polar high temporarily anchoring N of Maine ... damming pressure down the coast and onshore breezes, but at least provides fairer skies with no 39.3 F "soothing" rain. A pure operational GFS solution is misery rains and horrible shut-in weather for Saturday, and probably not much better Sunday because the backside of that escaping system is CAA with actual cold implicated, gusting over 40mph. The Euro solution has more climate precedence actually. The GFS solution has more of the same, unrelenting sore butt ... Trend is valid forecasting metric - kidding. The differences between are not resolvable with very much confidence when incorporating either one's ensemble means - GEFs being split, and the EPS looking more similar to the operational. This is probably one of the most epic model battles we've seen in quite some time, to be less than 144 hours with this much disagreement. The only problem is ... the consequences of either solution are ultimately not very meaningful - so who cares... LOL. Probably, something in between in reality, as that always seems to be the result when these wars happen. I care though... I really particularly loathe 38 F rain

I don't think I've seen a ECMWF AIF run that didn't have a deep winter bomb wobbling around New England in this time range - I guess it's a methadone clinic for next winter when we inevitably deal with another head scratching seasonal failure, despite all these leading Phillip K. Dickian dissertations

May be a handsome vehicle to those into that sort of thing ... buuut, unfortunately, with what is known of the bigger picture and the objective reality of what it means to planet ... that is tantamount to the trope of putting lipstick on a pig. An environmental pig. That's not what drove me to mention it the other day. It's something I just thought of. My snark back then was way more self-centered ( admittedly...). I've never been that into automobile-related special interest arenas. I went to couple 'car shows' with my dad as a kid. m'yeah. okay. But what I really wanted were those chartered Cessna flights I got to go on for my birthday. Being in the sky among the clouds, peering down over the land.. Flying never made me nervous and still doesn't. Love that. That, and watching tornadoes carve canyons through the negligent arrogance of towns built where tornadoes were first... But I guess airplanes choke the skies with fossil fuel farts too. Ha Basically, I'm too idealistic ( for most, no doubt - ) and though it may sound heavy handed, it's really just me and my own opinions. Ex, I don't think of New Orleans as a depot of intense jazz culture and "Mardi Gras" - French for "fat Tuesday." Like putting lipstick on the proverbial pig above. It's sort of apropos named, Fat Tuesday, for having the gall to ever build and carry on with a city there in that particular geography and planetary circumstances. 200 years of culture? Don't care. Doesn't matter. It was dumb then, still is. Katrina didn't even hit New Orleans. Yet any warning was apparently upon dead heads = rebuild instead. So that when the real Katrina does come, as tax payers we'll have to bail out the whole region to manifest New Orleans 2.0 ... and around and around we go. I'm kidding a little bit here, but still-

Heh... 40s might be harder to come by in two distinct impulses ...each lasting 2 days. It'll be close though. But, I still think once we get past the 25th we'll see some alleviation. This is all happening because that top flow structure/-EPO ... dumping downstream over the continent. not sure how we get out of it - why fight it. Ha. no but beyond then the spigot looks to shut off. People ( straw man here - ) forget that we warm up very fast with very minimum physical exertion required as part of the new CC era that is for some reason chaffing bum rims to admit. Even ranking GOP power brokers are leaning toward acceptance of what is incontrovertible at this point... See, denial happens because there are no consequences for denying. It's that simple. No other reason, thus ...equally no reason to recourse. If someone's denial caused them pain, they would stop denying. It's really rather remarkable how acutely succinct evolution's mastery was in creating the undeniability of discomfort. By the time CC has become uncomfortable enough that even human tech entitlement/protections fail, it will be too late ( not winking at you per se - you get it) Digression complete ... Just saying, shut off the spigot, we go from struggling into the 40s ... beyond 80 in just 2 or 3 days, a kind of short duration whip that didn't as frequently occur spanning previous climate generations.