Typhoon Tip

haha... i know. I saw pure blue out the windows. made coffee pure clouds. sat confirmed... it spontaneously blossomed as though making the observation itself somehow must have triggered it to do so. lol still completely overcast despite all this look of having more sun opportunities than cloud on this present sat vis image. it's one of those days whence the technology looks that way, but always overcast at ground truth. hate that - not that anyone asked.. but it's not the sun so much for me as it is the temperature. If it's warm... I'm sort of indifferent to whether it is cloudy. I'd take warm and wet over cold and wet, too. Although high dews and mold are concerns eventually...etc. But I don't grow to despise mid 50s in May if it caries on very long. The rain is over. Go away. Anyway, this image suggests the minority fractals are succeeding in keeping the majority unfairly cold - gee ...sounds like a present era sociological problem in America, doesn't it. haha

heh... just mentioned it to Scott. yeah..

I've been battling that thing... The telecon spread does not really suggest the depth and amplitude the operational guidance keep insisting of that thing. I'm waiting for them to finally respond to the 'non-linearity' of the surrounding, lowering favorability for having that depression in the TV in the first place, but they keep diggin that sumnabitch in there like an Alabama tick. Namely, there's a robust -PNA. In fact, ...one that has gotten more robust over the last 3 days days. Meanwhile, there doesn't appear to be any other indexes that suggest there's contention of proxy over the circulation mode... In other words, it all seems more -PNA ... So that TV whirl should be weaker. Nope... okay

Yeah... not directly observed, but they've narrowed the 'candidate regions' where to look, substantially. Reads like "point your cameras there cause it can't be anywhere else" I suppose an extensive process of elimination effort, winnowing down candidate locations. What I find peculiar is that we've evolved tech like JW satellite, capable of seeing details so vastly far off that we are on the verge of blowing up the going notion of the cosmic age and scale. Yet, we cannot see a 9th planet in orbit around an ordinary star like our yellow dwarf. Hmm. There are challenges, of course... But, those challenges are so insignificant when compared to now challenging the very construct of god, like seeing objects that argue the onset of time and space itself ( ). It just sorta seems any such 9th planet really is ... not actually challenging, then. Yet it remains so elusive. The thing is ...what they can see, empirically, is/are too evidentiary to explain otherwise. Telltale signs so coherent of its gravity source to believe it doesn't exist - its enough to all but say something has to be there. And, that something was/is sufficiently capable of ordering the random flotsam into the distribution they are seeing .. In the neighborhood of 3 to 9 Earth masses ( I think I most recently read). Until they see the planet, however, some how, some way ... this is perpetually in a state of "...might have been discovered" imho. We still need to change that expression to has been discovered. ... when/if they do directly observe the planet, I want it named after whatever ancient Latin word means "redheaded stepchild" ..do to it's being so ostracized and neglected out to the margins; it's Gaia so tormented it always thought no one loved it and it eternally suffered persecution in ever being a part of this solar system ... Which makes me wonder. Maybe it left. It's a run-away, and say ... what they can/are observing of the present day distribution( argument above), is now just a relic of its influence from antiquity. This planet may have been on a very expensive parabolic orbit. Similar to the demoted Pluto, not on the same plain necessarily as the inner family, but perhaps much more elliptical. This would increase the possibility that a rogue star, many eons ago, may have passed by the sun outer most tentacles, doing so close enough that when the hypothetical planet 9 was out around the aphelion the interloping sun nabbed it. Orbital capture. Hell, maybe it was Scholz’s Star, a discovered red dwarf that passed by 70,000 years ago... In other words, ...stolen. Either by it or some other star a billion years ago ...etc. Heh, that'd be a fun sci-fi novel. The stolen planet was an Earth analog, ... frozen and in stasis, waiting for its chance to seek revenge on the favored siblings - in keeping with the redheaded thing.. ha. And the new orbital insert post kidnapping and adoption, placed it into the warm, loving, Goldie Lock Zone nurturing embrace of the new evil start ...where life, "cosmically resentful" evolved out of a vengeful Gaia Chakra, thus was an inherently dark intelligence. Peering out at the Galaxy via their own "JW", they were doing so as a desperate species - on the brink of their own Fermian explanation ... And so they found us, thinking a nice alternative for a fresh start. hahaha nice.

Example... https://phys.org/news/2025-05-year-mountain-wont-fast-climate.html

looks like it starts brightening right on the back edge of this final band... probably associated with the main front... highly inverted system coming in as a cut-off as it does. Tomorrow will be 73 easy in this thermal profile if we get sun. In fact, I could see TCU erupting in that "dry" slot.

Nah that's close enough and your wet... you're in it to win it bro, accumulating rain. Good for you.

Noooo sun for you, ONE YEAR!

heh...actually a couple of decent days there in the latter mid range but that pig cut-off beyond then is coming completely out of left field. - figures, it's way out there. good thing it doesn't fit with any prior indicators as something even physically plausible.

man that's a piece of shit gfs run... wow

The sun needs another half billion years of life and that'll do it. Lol Old Sol is a mid aged star... over the next billion years it will increase in luminosity by almost 10%. Then it will begin fusing helium, and start expanding... It'll burn helium for another couple of billion years but then it will begin to expand so vast that it will first engulf the orbit of Mercury, Venus some hundreds of million years later, to probably knock on Earth's doorstep. It will be a cooler red giant by that time, but ... "cooler" is a relative term. Earth will be a cinder. Glowing in a lifeless infrared thermal radiance. And, as the expulsion by the giant phase start it will impose a lot or orbital drag; Earth's could decay and end up inside the envelope of the sun's outer layers. The end. We really are approaching the late innings of this planets nurturing life potential. Demarcated as the "Goldie Locks Zone" ... it's the orbital distance that is ideal for liquid water, and a planet's only magnetic field protecting it from harsh radiation from space ...et al, allowing all that is under the sun and our history, including Trump, to have ever existed ... LOL. But, the hell on Earth he brings - or is trying to - will get here without him, given enough time. When that GLZ migrates out and leaves Earth behind, we'll convert the oceans to WV and that'll put us in a Venus predicament. Some models have Earth like Venus in a couple billion years. But, folks need to be aware that within a single life time or two, none of that matters. The "ecological domino collapse" scenario is not just plausible, due to rate of climate change surpassing biological adaptation rates. In fact, that can happen while the Earth is still technically capable of supporting complex life, including humans. The codependents is more than a first order derivatives. There are transitive/non-linear stresses that take down 2ndary and tertiary ... n degrees of separation life. These are the dominoes. Such that they were indirectly still needing the total vitality of interrelated health of each input into the system- entirely intuitive. This can all happen quite swiftly... leaving a period when the Earth could still have breathable air, albeit warmer, with oceans still lapping at shores ... barren otherwise. Life in the ocean is not unaffected by all this. Deep ocean perhaps would survive the CC attribution death waves...

It just sucks when when you have the weight of stupidity at the one end of the boat that has the hole while all those who know know better have no choice but to be ON THE SAME BOAT

The other way I know the warm ridge idea has legs is because every time since the mid 20teens there's one in the model, the operational GFS canes Cuba/Bahamas. it's like responding to numerical instability more than an actual system and then spontaneity in the physical processing of the model takes over and it just fabricates one - but it requires the deep layer easterly anomaly to the circulation mode down there, which is what happens when? duh duh dunnn... there's ridge over the eastern CONUS.

There's a low amplitude heat signal now for the 12th thru ~ the 18th ( ending is open ) It's showing up in all three major ens systems, EPS/GEFS/GEPS. The numeric equivalents, the teleconnections, have a negative PNA with a ( important distinction ) easterly limb -NAO... If that NAO does materialize but corrects west ...we'd be back door boned but that's not actually modeled to be the case at this time - just a precaution. Otherwise, there's not much else that looks capable at large scales of controlling the circulation identity. The major players will be a height rises NE of Hawaii over the E Pac Basin, which transmits to the western N/A trough response => eastern CONUS ridging. It just not huge at this time... but it is identifiable. If the wholesale gets a little more robust, than that weird weakness rattling around over the TV probably becomes less coherent/fills in - but it's not clear that's affecting up this far N anyway. Have to watch these... Sometimes these May heat surges can over perform because we're still tending to recover soil sourced theta-e, so the kinetic side of the temperatures can get nasty from rather tepid looking warm patterns - think synergistic over performance. This sort of thing happened up in NNE since 2020 a couple of times, sending them into the mid 90s when NY and Boston held at 85 Kind of a 564 to 569 thickness over 850s intervals to 14C for now.

will check back in later Monday ( tomorrow..). lol may not be so polar happy. j/k but seriously, some short term acclimation bias probably makes that seem particularly nasty. that high zipping N of Maine will send a (probable) non-described defused BD, or just acceleration SW of cold air through the area and it's fresh from Labrador's anus. Maybe crashing through the upper 40s NE-E zones by evening, with snapping flags and light soothing blue balls rain drops. Probably we just go modestly BN but light rains around through Tuesday before a bit of a bounce back on Wednesday.

and I just wonder, when the next warm ENSO phase arrives, what kind synergy results happen that next time. Does this set the stage for another 2023 global phenomenon.. Bear in mind, 2023 temperature event ( at an entire planetary integrated scale!!) was worse than unprecedented ... it was utterly not predicted, not by anything unaided foresight, nor technological assisted human vision. That event is more than a mere geological enigma. It's a silent doom siren ( to me ). This is intuitive ...but scratch calculations, with the assist of AI, only lend credence to the idea. In order to raise 1 cubic meter of ocean water by 1 degree Celsius, you need approximately 4,200 joules of energy. The oceans have ~ 3.6e+12 KM of surface area, which M is thus 3.6e+15 (3.6 quadrillion) square meters. In an (at least...) quick albeit gross assumption, the top 1 cubic meter of the oceans are virtually coupled to the thermal state of the atmosphere due to ongoing noise of turbulent exchange averages of the whole planetary system. Using that conceptually for our calculation implies 3.6e+15 X 4,200 joules = somewhere in the neighborhood of 1.5e+19 .. Just because it's fun to hear this in dialogue ... fifteen quintillion joules of energy. And, that all took place in basically a 45 day span back in late March to early May ( check that - ) of 2023. That was just the ocean. The atmosphere behaved in a similar delta during those 45 days, not lagged , which is an extra special creepy "omg-ism" in its own right - the whole system, ocean and air, SIMULTANEOUSLY surged by 1 deg C ( note, these are approximations for/in conjecture but in principle, we're conceptually correct). That part is a particularly troubling, non-intuitive observation. The contemporary understanding is that the atmospheric, vs oceanic system, are "QUASI" coupled - which means in laity that they only seem to be coupled, but really aren't at the point observation. Time is required in the total exchange thermal engine of the total system. Such that over time, the oceans store/lose temperature from multiple sources, then, non-linear feedback processes, over time, effects the atmosphere, and vice versa. They are not suppose to unilaterally "explode", simultaneously. There's been a lot of floated insights and studies - not criticism whatsoever. However, I haven't read anything that specifically addresses what took place from this kind of approach - and personally, I am 100% confident that answering that question should be priority 1; particularly when adding that "...it was utterly not predicted by anything unaided foresight, or technological assisted human vision" . Because that means we did not see and we did not know, had zero sense of that destiny. *Blind sided* Be that as it may ... let's include the atmosphere's contribution to the energy - obviously this has all likely been calculated million times ... to far greater confidence precision than all this but I'm just having fun here. To raise the temperature of 1 cubic kilometer of air by 1 degree Celsius, approximately 1e+12 joules of energy is required. Just using the troposphere (lowest layer) of the total atmospheric volume, there is 6e+12 (trillion) cubic KMs of atmosphere down here (we'll also assume for concept-model a well mixed temperature rise too place through the tropospheric depth). So ... 1e+12 joules/KM X (6e+12 cu KMs) => 6e+24 ... six septillion KJ of energy added from "some unknown source", to the atmosphere, between late March and early May of 2023 The adding the ocean and atmosphere together is too close to that six septillion KJ number to really report that as 6.015e+24 so just take the larger numeric expression alone and go with it - error notwithstanding. Comparing this to the all of the nuclear arsenal of the world being unleashed, all at once ... according to AI assist, the U.S. alone has a total 5.3e+18 yield if the total cache were expended (2000 devices). I don't know what the Soviets have, and China has, and India ...or other capable nations bring to the table, but just for argument's sake, this number may be tripled. I'm getting tired of looking this up for the course of this thought experiment - which is based on approximations and less fully vetted anyway... but, 3(5e+18) works out to 1.5e+19 ... if perhaps just a quirk of error, notwithstanding, this is same eerie value as that 1.5e+19 from the oceanic contribution arrived to from above. Given that the margin for error in the assumptions of metrics going into this little arithmetic/thought experiment could be several orders of magnitude in the nuclear yield estimate, that puts this imm abv number into a similar value as the 6e+24 ... Basically, what we observed in 2023 is like a complete commitment global holocaust's worth of a thermal footprint. Maybe merely symbolic to say ... but this "symmetry of doom" really is a pretty terrible optic that argues humanity's been playing with dad's end-game-gun for a long while.

Looking at high res vis loop you can tell the cu field east of EEN-HFD is moving more N than E ... I've seen this sort of failure set up before. We'll see how it works out today ... but as those broken lines move across that axis described above, there may be weakening

depends ... the epo won't give up on the baseline in the GEFs ... it's not the same implication as January, no. but, we can still get these blocking nodes well into June some years... -epo can set that table. I'm a little leery of those ice cubes in the warm punch. but yeah, otherwise, both it and the EPS longer lead telecons are an endlessly negative PNA mode, and the AO's seasonally ko'd

Probably not ... wall of impenetrable didn't get warm enough in time clearly stuffing CAPE ... Cu field's not advancing out of NY too well

surged to 77

Well thankfully ...this is what I said: "We may actually scour out prior to the real warm front moving through over the course of the next several hours ... but, if that happens the high intense sun will then process the shit out of the prefrontal inversion and we may see a "frontal leap" up to a bicycle ride S of Brian where it stalls until next spring ..." Which is exactly what happened, bold. Brian might be hosed though hopefully The last hour we went from 62 to 74 here and probably we still have a shot at the upper 70s given to heating at this time of year lasting until 4 oclock,

we'll be hosed here until the last physical second the cold is allowed to hold out. I've noticed that in these fudge-packed labored warm lube jobs that that N. Middlesex and western Essex counties up here will slab cold even when PSM in NH is S at 14 F temperature jumps.

Temp ? I've been monitoring this site all morning ( provided by the Grand Rapids MI NWS ) and you can see/get a feel for where the warm frontal erosion axis is... Looks at glance like it's hung around NYC but judging by sat/vis loop ... you wonder if we'll get a processing leap when/if the skies improve.