Typhoon Tip

There's some plausibility to that, Ray - just observational/anecdotally I mean, I saw 3 different -EPO episodes this year ( and have in recent winters, too - ) where the subsequent cold loading appeared to be 'sheared off' before it could really penetrate deeper into latitude. The total hemispheric mode of circulation having the speed saturation is hugely problematic to that - more theoretically... Because, when the flow is fast, there are less residence and/or standing wave phenomenon... That's physically provable/ mathematical. Anyway, in practical terms ... that means the teleconnector modes are not in situ long enough before they are being forced to change. It takes time for the lower troposphere to change ... but if a -EPO is blowing up before it has time to deliver ...that's that shearing.

It's starting to show up way out there. I've said this before but whatever ... things can turn around and get real warm faster than most may think - I think of it as a microcosm of last year's outre planetary heat burst - when the La Nina collapsed and the Earth seemed to respond as though it were always taut like a rubber band ... catapulting in the other direction, both air and sea in every direction. It wouldn't be the same cause ... but in principle, it shows how even large systems can abruptly change when removing a suppressive influence. We happened to migrate into a -EPO that would have been more pleasing to the pallet if it had arrived around Dec 10, no doubt. Now? there are a few struggler die-hards that think it's okay to go ahead and snow in June ... but by and large, I think the consensus sentiment leans toward getting on with summer affairs. Oh well... it was going to be one thing or the other in New England springs Anyway, when the EPO vanquishes - and it is a pretty hard stop in all the teleconnector sources ... - an abrupt change isn't unprecedented.

12z Euro flips bird at GFS ...

we laugh ..but, when AI intersects with QC ( quantum computing ) things could get dicey. the easy kill switch is to have an EMP generator on stand-by but still -

meh...moving really fast at middling dynamics in those solutions. where ever that snows < 1800' elevation is probably slush glops slipping off bent down pine bows with not much in the roads and silvery see through slushy lawns. probably do okay in the backside/upslope

Yeah... I'm saying the influence of a "warm ocean world" is influencing - or should be considered if that hasn't already begun. But that just means influencing. As far as parsing out specifically who gets/got what and where ... that's probably something metaphysical haha.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/18/climate/ocean-heat-record-year-climate-intl/index.html ...granted, it's CNN - so always side eye source. However, if the scalars are right, they're right. That said ( supposing that to be so) eventually this factor will overwhelm everyone's season forecast efforts and I suggest that already in partiality it has been "whelming" LOL more and more so over the last decade (probably longer)

I think it's because the way AI works ... It's "processor" happens in layers. Each one passes a probability test before exiting that level. As the 'content' passes through subsequent levels, it gradually filters down to the very best most likely candidate solution - having considered all these tiers of objective reality. This applies to everything from simple question and answering, to the immense problem solving requirements of AI tasking Along the way, one of its challenges is the goal of "simulacra" - the ability to appear as though a given exchange is taking place with an actual consciousness (the ability to "fool" a Turing tester into believing they are communicating with a human). This level uses the Internet as the source, causing that Noah's revenge solution. In listening, reading, ... analyzing billions of conversation modes and models, all at once ... it became like winning the lottery? Even a probability that is based upon a billion deck shoe, someone eventually lands all the numbers and wins. In this case, every rational mode of conversation in the world, happen to be asleep ... with the exception of the overnight American Weather Forums banter. So to the AI ... 300 feet of melted equivalent QPF is entirely reasonable -

The ICON and JMA and GGEM are all more like the operational Euro in suppressing that southern wave into a cut-off deeper in latitude ( sparing us the horror of 38 F rain for days of internment )... The 'AIF does offer some support for the GFS, which is clearly attempting to control the mind of god in getting us to the above description anyway it can. I guess since being porked is a uniquely New England spring aspect, getting to that result will succeed, having transcended both pillars of modern physical laws ( General Relativity and QM) to get it done

I dunno what that model's acclaim is supposed to be ( Euro AI) other than the "A" and the "I" in the title, but I haven't seen a model run of that thing yet that didn't have a cold biased wintry profile that only gets deeper and more triggering out in time. I'm not impressed with it so far

Pretty elaborate differences between the GEFs and EPS, differences that are also well enough defined in operational Euro and GFS, too. About half the GEFs members agree that a substantive southerly wave will get captured in the wholesale trough amplifying through the Lakes ...getting sucked up along the lead baroclinic axis there. The other half look more like the EPS's recent means ... ...which, the vast majority do not lift any southerly wave at all. That is interestingly divergent for ensemble systems to be 120-144 hours out with that amount of discordance. Meanwhile, the operational Euro doesn't lift any southern system up at all, either - not a shocker ... the Euro ensemble system is typically less dispersive. Most just drift the southerly wave E off the lower M/A to spin down a slow death somewhere between Goergia and Bermuda. The differences start really at 120. Both model systems identify that southerly wave, coherently taking into the Tennessee Valley area, but that's where the products diverge pretty significantly. It's unclear which way we should go... A pure operational Euro solution spares us a horrible weekend. It may be cool, with a big late polar high temporarily anchoring N of Maine ... damming pressure down the coast and onshore breezes, but at least provides fairer skies with no 39.3 F "soothing" rain. A pure operational GFS solution is misery rains and horrible shut-in weather for Saturday, and probably not much better Sunday because the backside of that escaping system is CAA with actual cold implicated, gusting over 40mph. The Euro solution has more climate precedence actually. The GFS solution has more of the same, unrelenting sore butt ... Trend is valid forecasting metric - kidding. The differences between are not resolvable with very much confidence when incorporating either one's ensemble means - GEFs being split, and the EPS looking more similar to the operational. This is probably one of the most epic model battles we've seen in quite some time, to be less than 144 hours with this much disagreement. The only problem is ... the consequences of either solution are ultimately not very meaningful - so who cares... LOL. Probably, something in between in reality, as that always seems to be the result when these wars happen. I care though... I really particularly loathe 38 F rain

I don't think I've seen a ECMWF AIF run that didn't have a deep winter bomb wobbling around New England in this time range - I guess it's a methadone clinic for next winter when we inevitably deal with another head scratching seasonal failure, despite all these leading Phillip K. Dickian dissertations

May be a handsome vehicle to those into that sort of thing ... buuut, unfortunately, with what is known of the bigger picture and the objective reality of what it means to planet ... that is tantamount to the trope of putting lipstick on a pig. An environmental pig. That's not what drove me to mention it the other day. It's something I just thought of. My snark back then was way more self-centered ( admittedly...). I've never been that into automobile-related special interest arenas. I went to couple 'car shows' with my dad as a kid. m'yeah. okay. But what I really wanted were those chartered Cessna flights I got to go on for my birthday. Being in the sky among the clouds, peering down over the land.. Flying never made me nervous and still doesn't. Love that. That, and watching tornadoes carve canyons through the negligent arrogance of towns built where tornadoes were first... But I guess airplanes choke the skies with fossil fuel farts too. Ha Basically, I'm too idealistic ( for most, no doubt - ) and though it may sound heavy handed, it's really just me and my own opinions. Ex, I don't think of New Orleans as a depot of intense jazz culture and "Mardi Gras" - French for "fat Tuesday." Like putting lipstick on the proverbial pig above. It's sort of apropos named, Fat Tuesday, for having the gall to ever build and carry on with a city there in that particular geography and planetary circumstances. 200 years of culture? Don't care. Doesn't matter. It was dumb then, still is. Katrina didn't even hit New Orleans. Yet any warning was apparently upon dead heads = rebuild instead. So that when the real Katrina does come, as tax payers we'll have to bail out the whole region to manifest New Orleans 2.0 ... and around and around we go. I'm kidding a little bit here, but still-

Heh... 40s might be harder to come by in two distinct impulses ...each lasting 2 days. It'll be close though. But, I still think once we get past the 25th we'll see some alleviation. This is all happening because that top flow structure/-EPO ... dumping downstream over the continent. not sure how we get out of it - why fight it. Ha. no but beyond then the spigot looks to shut off. People ( straw man here - ) forget that we warm up very fast with very minimum physical exertion required as part of the new CC era that is for some reason chaffing bum rims to admit. Even ranking GOP power brokers are leaning toward acceptance of what is incontrovertible at this point... See, denial happens because there are no consequences for denying. It's that simple. No other reason, thus ...equally no reason to recourse. If someone's denial caused them pain, they would stop denying. It's really rather remarkable how acutely succinct evolution's mastery was in creating the undeniability of discomfort. By the time CC has become uncomfortable enough that even human tech entitlement/protections fail, it will be too late ( not winking at you per se - you get it) Digression complete ... Just saying, shut off the spigot, we go from struggling into the 40s ... beyond 80 in just 2 or 3 days, a kind of short duration whip that didn't as frequently occur spanning previous climate generations.

And I'm so impatient that if we got this "last two weeks," during the first half of April, it'd be inching me closer to pulling the trigger on a relo to San Diego ... or Frisco or Tuscany. Anywhere of some less rectal glue spring climate ... But looking at those grid of numbers he posted, I think it's more amazing that the top 20 in history have all happened since 1999 - the last 25 years. 25 years, vs, any time since Industrial farting white man stole the world

yeah, a thunderstorm to demarcate the seasonal change into winter

There's a d(mass field) perturbation event about to unfold through our side of the hemisphere - not sure it is H.A. qualitative. In fact, it is not in any objective sense of what that statistical science concluded. "H.A. events," as they've been denoted since the publication some 30 years ago ... were focused in +d(PNA) - switching mode from negative --> positive. The paper does not discuss switching mode from positive --> negative. There was also explicitly stated that there was a weaker ( vague skill ) correlation when moving +d(NAO) - switching it's mode from negative to positive. In principle, any time there is a large mass field distortion, that "probably" qualifies as a period of interest. Events of any kind in the natural geophysical environment only happen at all because a state of rest enters a non-state of rest - such is the case when disturbing the quiescent state of the field being observed. You disrupt, there's an attempt to restore, and the storm happens as consequence. From that I am not completely opposed to the idea. But a +PNA --> -PNA with a rising EPO isn't technically covered in that, which has become both a seminal paper but often misused.

yeah I guess. I'm not really part of that banter battle, tho. Just a relaying the chart trajectories.

Cold Monday night with sub 520 dm hydrostatic hgts. There’s no heat in that atmosphere

'least we're getting 60 F blue bird beauty on a Saturday this time... draw the shades next week and don't come out until the end of the month sometime.

Series of smaller eruptions fractured the inner cone bed and the ocean caved in all at once and flooded the subterranean magma chamber

heh..yeah. I think the better question, tho, is does that even exist. Very little to no continuity from the 00z run. I mean it's futile to assess your question if it's unlikely to be real in the first place. who knows

How about the Euro's 12" of rain for DCA to PHL ...talkin some big ass sultania

Jesus Christ ... have to close this f'n ap you people talkin' about f'n trucks? ooh ya . Where's the emoji of gun and bullet going through head when you need it -

Oh, if I had my druthers? right there with you. I don't care much for the cold and snow and winter fairs ... really once the calendar passes about February 20th every year. Obviously history is adorned with other ideas through March and sometimes April. Hell, in 1976 there was a 15" in the Worcester Hills in May. I didn't say my personal druthers were necessarily realistic. Anyway, I don't deny the seasonal trend but therein is some trouble. I'm seeing changes in the daily operational handling of the hemispheric circulation mode that allow aspects to slow - or are trying to. The those changes introduce some question in trend reliance. GFS has always been both the best at conserving speed/shearing/progression, while being the worst offender at over promoting it. But specifically ...there is a tendency for the N/stream to be less dictating on the flow behavior beneath 40N... That allows opportunity for S/W of southern origin to come up and under cold loading in a different total behavior compared to that velocity BS in mid winter. ( which by the way ...that is proven - yet again ... - to be a plague during this winter season, regardless of whatever telecon or leading seasonal indicator, too. Digress ... ) I'm also providing some avenue out by saying 'we monitor' - just out of deference to sun and seasonality ...etc.