Typhoon Tip

yeah.. it's interesting following these atmospheric indices as I do. Yesterday, an early autumn 'shot across the bow' type pattern was coherent in both the numerical data, but also in the synoptic/spatial layouts, from all three ens sources GGEM/GEFS/EPS. I posted about it... that's normal. If your goal is to not materialize a pattern you want, all you have to do is mention it. Boom! wanted pattern summarily breaks heart. This is why you should never tell a woman how you actually feel... No but since then the numerical side of that have pushed a new -PNA/-EPO tandem out there between D10 and 14. Then, the operational runs overnight sort of half committed; the Euro and GFS proper having some suggestion, which fits that tandem. We'll see. It's harder and harder anyway to determine that particular week any given season, when the season tries to pick up more than it can handle and cracks haha. Seriously, CC is seriously f*cking that orderly expression ( in time ) from happening as dependably as it did for grand pappy. We'll get a frost on Sept 10 and then 90 for 3 days on 15th... just sayn'

Heh, how soothing would that be if you were homeless? Luckily, CC will ultimately prevent 4:30 PM heavy snow when it also triggers civilization collapse we won't likely have to suffer the former state of affairs. Not to spark off a moron's subjectivel insufferable debate ... but, as I get older, I'm losing connection to even that nostalgia. I'd just prefer it stayed mild enough all winter to continue engaging in outer low grade athletic activities. Like bike rides. Golf, both disk and stick varieties. Going for runs. Tennis..etc. I'm probably destined to a warmer climate during retirement, provided the shit below doesn't get in the way. Just a few hurdles to overcome ... If I were a billionaire ...I'd build an extra-double top secret compound in the wilderness somewhere, replete with all three: water, wind and solar power generation options. AC/DC converters and state of the art battery capacity is utterly off power-grid. This compound's 15,000 acres would be surrounded by a 30' wall with guard towers, the top perimeter of which has highly sophisticate movement detection and entity identification ...annnnd with precision laser ammo (no bullets) it'd sound like a electrical fly zapper whenever some red neck in tattered rags with fractured words that read something like, 'makin 'merica great aghin' attempts to incur upon the edifice of the wall... Oh, throw bombs over the wall? well...little does anyone know, there's a extra-double, top secret black project in QM that has developed Quantum Interference force field technology. When turned on, it creates a transparent sphere of uncertainty principle; such that anything or object of reality that attempts to move through it, can't, because said objects quantum state ceases to exist. This is precisely calibrated to be on the inner 'last defense' side of the wall... you know, give 'em a chance to give up. To mention, sanitizing/recycling above ground. Need to have an under ground self environmentally sustained/contained storage facility. 20 year's-worth of stored various freeze dried and/or non-BPA canned food stocks for if/when hunting and growing seasons fail ... Ranging over to the typical accoutrement of needed sundries for health. The inside of the living complex has pool, rec room... movie theater, and standard living quarters. Yeah I see myself headed that way ...

Last week of the month may try to evolve warmer ...kind of a newish telecon signal.

5 day heat wave out my way. should be over tomorrow for all.

Oh, it’s pretty clear that history will in time reveal the whole tariff thing, regardless of whatever it is/was espoused as being, was actually just a grift - a grand bilking scheme.

was going to comment on this... yup All major ens-derived, sweeping numerical index changes. Well represented in the spatial depictions, too. A significant overhaul of the hemispheric foot pattern mode. Not sure if that represents the end of summer but ...considering D10 enters the last week of August... modulate for climatology accordingly.

Boy that 00z GFS was an inferno run out there... 06z backed off. There could be a legit (last?) signal after the 20th for some heat but it needs some work. won't get into what that is because no one will read it but 50/50

If the ridge ends up more defined than current guidance vision creating a weakness to draw it N ... a weaker formed Erin could then get left behind - it's lower probability for the time being, but not impossible.

it's not just 'stable' air. There is SAL, and SAL is a micro-physical inhibitor. There can be an unstable sounding ...having lapse rates and so forth. But SAL particles create an over proficient condensation process onto particulate (nano dust) surfaces. Think of it like an 'atmospheric sponge' soaking up the water prior to cloud genesis. Sort of a cartoon metaphor lol. Dry air is another aspect. The tropical instability requires more than just lapse rates for TC engine. WV> 25C wet bulb needs to be maintained.

It would be interesting to compare the interior of Antarctic's atmospheric chemistry/constituencies, against the regions outside during strong +AAO circulation modes persisting.

And actually ... it further elucidates my point when observing that during that same span of time, the N. Hemisphere is much closer to 2023 and 2024. ...So that strikes me pretty hard at this point that including the Antarctic peregrinations is casting an allusion to cooler world. Obviously, the Antarctic is part of this world - but the principle idea is that it's uniquely secluded due to its total geophysical circumstance doesn't reflect what is available to take place anywhere else. It's a 'weighting' concern.

Not attempting any acclaim to shame vs fame, either way, but using the Climate Reanalyzer, there appears to be a correlation between the Antarctic vs the rest of the Globe. There were significant downward spikes spanning some 3 to 5 days in the ongoing registry of the Antarctic daily temperatures, ~ July 5 and again July 25, then very recently ( see blw). Then looking over the curve of the entire planet during those same periods gives a coherent impression that the two curves are moving together in time. I think the Antarctic, having unique geologic circumstance that effectively closes it off from the rest of the world ... particularly during the +annular modes whence the PV is > median strength, ... it draws me to question using that to "weight" the world down. The Antarctic can circumstantially "protect" it's cold during +AAOs, which we can see here ... we've spent the ballast of the last 2.5 months in that circulation mode, My 'numerical suspicion' is that this is more of an artifact that looks like global cooling, holding the entirety of world averages down. The problem with that is geophysical. The Antarctics uniqueness tends to isolate it during these stronger positive excursions; I think that should be considered when assessing a whole planet that does not share in the unique geophysical capacity the Antarctic has for lesser homogeny with the surrounding world, during episodic circulation seclusion. I'm saying - in part - that a cooler 2025 ...mm I'm not sure that's really what's going on, when we're merely dealing in aberrant positive annular modes of the AAO. When/if the AAO goes negative, we may find that the total global temperature rebounds.

https://phys.org/news/2025-08-europe-millions.html

I was thinking about the 'counting eggs before they hatch, wah wah wahhh' phenomenon this morning. consternation and quibbling over who/what/where gets their TC and there isn't one. hiding in modeling virtual realm. Right now 'Erin' carving its way through a nasty dry and probably SAL contaminated space and it's got a ways to go. ...As already noted by NHC, this toxic air is likely being ingested.

Those cicada/'saw bugs' are out there deforesting already and it's not even 9am... Heh, it 'sounds' like a hot day is in the mail.

Like was said 8 days ago or whenever it was. Nothing's changed since, unfortunately, for TC enthusiasm. Unless there is a west oriented -D(NAO),whilst a semi-persistent trough positioned/repositions along 90W, any outlook for bringing TCs up along the EC is not well-enough correlated using climatology. Any depiction at D8+ ( go wonder...) is more likely based on model 'beta-drift', a force that emerges by a complex interaction that is too esoteric to get into but it pulls systems toward the NW. Most of the time, the other forces are strong enough that the beta scaling doesn't get noticed, but at long ranges in the guidance... the resolution for those is lost and that leaves beta as proxy over cyclone motion. So you get wonky aspects like a TC tunneling through a ridge with no steering fields. In other words, ...not likely to happen. Doesn't stop the slew of posts in here warning civility of impending doom [place eye rolling emoji here], no but hey. Nothing wrong with living in the realm of model fantasies. People need their distractions. So long as it's kept separate. I suppose what annoys others is when it's apparently not kept separate. Some don't know any better but have access to the tech. This is where society gets delicious.. the phenomenon of bulk density populace having access to information. Uh oh.. digression formulating. Information is like gasoline. Highly volatile substance that has explosive capacity. Normally, it is fed in careful predetermined doses to a machine that converts that potential energy to turn its gears..etc. But, the modern man ... several generations deep after the Industrial Revolution, has dumbed down to dangerously detached and increasingly dysfunctional machinery in the head (deferential and differential objective analytic intelligence, but we won't go there for now). So the dosing of information vastly surpasses what thee machine can really consume ... So what is left? a ton of volatility and explosions ( these are metaphors, btw - ) taking place. One such explosion: We've gotten the U.S. into a state of teetering social order. Floating a proverbial lit match under the Constitution by voter mentality-machinery that not just prefers fake news and appeasing information over reality, but has tons of access to enormous fuel with no constraints on dosing.

yeah, seems like a rt 2 north day ...

Interesting seeing BOS be 90 with ESE 10kt harbor farts

Looks like MOS/machine was modestly cool biased ... ? Getting a lot of 94+ now. I also noticed the breeze kicked in here over the last hour. We were bouncing around 91 or 92, and then wind arrived and we observed a mini T jump in there. I mentioned this earlier... the models trying their best to limit the BL expansion heights, which of course would not realize the higher potential if that happened. I'm wondering if the over-turning took place.

95 here

69 is not picnic at that temp, either. The HI is 100

94

Definitely straight up hot out there today.

I'm not "Coastal" but the FA calls for that every year it seems. Anyone that has forecasted anything other than shoulder season blocking --> pseud-faux winter patterns, with windy sheared shitty mid seasons over the last 8 to 10 years were more wrong than right - a span of years within which the FA folks were hitting the winter sauce a bit more than what has occurred. Just sayn'