Typhoon Tip

I noticed NE Pac is -0 850 C all the way down to San Francisco latitude when looking over the 00z operational version... is that what y'all's talkin' 'bout? It's suddenly reverted back to a January 20th climatology look in the wholesale complexion of the hemisphere - I saw the model do this last year around this time. Because this latter experience, and the fact that it just looks climate bogus ...I'm also inclined to suspect it. The thing is, the GFS and GGEM also looked like they're saddling the cold lower into middle latitudes, too - just not as much... These tech sources share grid inputs. They purchase it from one another... when they really should just have that be open source if they had a f'ing modicum of virtuosity outside of economic "automatonic" drones ( another idealistic rage for another time lol). At least they use to sell it... Anyway, I'm wondering if there's something in the "global initialization" that is either real or fake. I do still suggest watching the 20-25th for perhaps a season's last gasp at something.

Meh it’s the mean date of the first snow resulting more than an inch spanning the last 12 yrs

Ever been on the run and realize your carb short.... man. I could eat about 7 of those right now.

20th to 24th ... last chance until November 13th

some of you are like monkey see monkey do, no other consideration. if it were cold today, and warm up next week, the tone would be how horrible NE springs are woe is us f our butts god have mercy...blah blah. but because it's warm now out side at this moment, no awareness of the cold dumpster liable to last some 7 straight days set to begin Sunday LOL It's prolly just me, but I have trouble celebrating today and/or trophy hoisting as a warm enthusiast when considering the bigger picture here.

maybe ... forecasters will have to watch for this -

yeah ...the orograthic cloud patterning aspect I was discussing is more N of the CT/RI border's with MA.

sat seems to confirm the present highway temperature robbing sun stealer cloud fractal may be the last. so we'll see if the temp surges. After today ... we may not see this kind of mild air for long while

actually I've noticed this in recent years ... way more so than I recall observing this through the 1980s and 1990s ...earlier 2000s. we get a lot of these ridge line cloud triggers ...a lot more of them, anyway. Looping this time sensy image below and you get the distinct impression that the elevations are puffing out cloud plumes like the hill tops are chimneys, and sending them down stream - https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Rhode_Island-02-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined These are significant cooling offsets. I'm not aware that anyone is really noticing this, but it seems to cost us a couple clicks or more of high temp when our mornings get harassed by that phenomenon. I think the increasing theta-e in the ambient atmospheric hemisphere ...then forced over even the smaller elevations of our region is helping to keep our high temperatures down - just a little.

it was warmer by 4 F yesterday at this time, despite today supposedly being warmer. this is what happens when even thin, gossamer cloud filters pass over in this cursed New England cold well in spring. Like somehow the sun is weaker than any other place along this same latitude on Earth and even barely perceptible dimming robs 5 F.

Yeah... it's going to turn substantially cooler next week. If this impending -EPO were under carriaged by a -PNA ...maybe the heights dive over the Rockies, but because the PNA is actually positive as the EPO is descending that's going to carrier the cold right at the Lakes and NE. It'll be offset of Equinox sun/seasonal forcing but it's some but it's going to be chilly. Spin is fun ... but there's also just lying.

actually, do you have 2010's ? I may be thinking of 2010 in the previous -

Yup ... I recall piling out of work around 4:30 pm and when my car finished turning over the dash temp read 33 F. The day was socked in with clouds all day... I think it was a like a BD on steroids the day before... It actually came down initially as a north door front and was more back dooring for NJ but ... for 3 days late, we lost the heat by some 50 pts. I remember remarking to my self in that moment. I'm pretty sure April bounced back though.

I would even argue March 2012 started 3 weeks after the Halloween storm in 2011 ... because as far as my disc golf records, we missed very few weekends the rest of the way through "the winter that was spring" right into 70s and early green up the following March. We were out on fairways in cargo shorts and tee shirts by February ... and it was dry too. Like it was dusty 53 F on a lot of Feb Saturday's.

dern it... I normally would have checked the preceding MOS guidance numbers because this kind of excruciating nerdiness of spring temperature monitoring excites me. ha ... This just seems like a MOS bust incarnate regime we're in today and tomorrow. 59 here ... zero cloud in any direction with infinite visibility. no discernable wind. About a 10 on the nape scale. Needs to clear 62 to enter top 10 day contention - personal requirement for that distinction. But being near 60 in these conditions under near Equinox sun is definitely in the top 20. We may yet get a 64 even here...

I mentioned this earlier. the Euro AI reminds me of the Euro operational from 2005 I used to have access to when I worked at WSI. The model went well beyond 240 hours ... all the way to 360 I believe. Anyway, it seemed to bias toward massive bombs at 300+ hrs ... I'm wondering if all we're seeing is just the Euro " extended" - so to speak...

not to be a dick ( seriously...) but no, 2012 was never in the cards. I like the way Brian mused about 2012 the other day, " ...was a unicorn" - that was some sort of extended event onto itself. It was like 73 for 10 days or something whack. so no- I will say however that we are vulnerable to synoptic 'heat spikes' - like the 12z GFS actually depicts in the goo-goo ga-ga range ... Does it verify? mm, likely no - not from this range can 'likely' be objectively placed on any aspect. That said, the last 10 or 12 year's worth of springs have featured these too frequently to ignore. 582 non-hydrostatic heights on a WSW deep layer flow, after the Equinox no less ...whatever the 2-meter is at this range it's going to be quite a bit warmer - if this below actually sets up

I saw a tweet that there's some kind of a heat burst going on in Africa ... Obviously the "I saw," and subsequently "a tweet" in the same sentence immediately torpedoes its own value - however ... I did read an article about this from other source two weeks ago. I'm wondering if it's matured into something more pervasive and extreme. But places apparently across multiple countries, all at once, broke all time temperature records. If true ...that's interesting to the non-numb

OH sure ... I mean, I wasn't really speaking to his input. I was just budding in and rudely thumping an opinion. haha

Mmm I beg to differ. People have a way of playing with it verbally ( it's a form of bargaining - ) by infusing all these 'reasonable skepticisms' that in reality are less likely to be valid - and or proving to be less valid all the time. It's a form of passive denial that's harder to prove but is a common tactic in humanity. Which ...this may come as surprise but "some" people in here qualify as being a part of lol

That's what I was hoping to see ... Wait, that doesn't say ECMWF "ensemble" AI ... it says "ECMWF AI" ? Yeah, this weekend through next weekend is dicy for wintry events from the NP-GL-NE as this -EPO and attending +PNA couplet play out. The AI version of the operational is already guilty of going particularly nutty in that range - now apparently a flatter more tamed cold passage around the 20th. So we'll see. When I worked at WSI back in 2005 ... I had access to the Euro operational run - which does go out to 360 hours ( or did so back then). I remember the model tended to wind up everything beyond 240 hours. When I saw this AI stuff for the first time ... it was bringing back memories - made me wonder if we're just seeing what the Euro ( non AI) always tends to do way out in time, anyway. Just speculation though... Anyway, so long as the -3EPO and +1PNA canvas is there, ..we can't negate the possibility of a wintry event altogether. I just personally don't lean that way because of a slew of objective facets.

Ya wonder what the elevation of that property in the back ground, is... Like, if it's > 7K feet... what does one expect? I'm not sure of any real "awe" factor in placing constructed civility beyond recreation up that high, particularly in that geography and climate consideration. It's like building a house at the bottom of the ocean and then gawking photos about the flood. People that defend the gawk ability as justified, try to argue that 'even for them that is x-y-z ...' and I don't buy it. That part of the continent has been sitting their prone to the Pacific ocean and the global westerlies bombardment for the last 50 million years of Plate Tectonics ... surviving both ice and fire epochs. It's why either extreme of water and drought, and the types of events that correlate with either ...strike me as too local to 'white man's ' conquest of the north American continent - too brief in geological history and there are probably more likely to be certain place where descending society should just not have built.

I wonder if there's an AI version of the entire Euro ensemble suite, or is this just a gimmick operational version? By the way, I haven't seen much improvement by the AI over the standard operational version for the time period that seems to drive people particularly batty, D7 thru 11. That's just anecdotal - I'm sure there must be both a verification and comparative program, far more qualitative and quantitative than that but who knows.

On this side of an imminent -EPO burst ... those model products are likely to bias cold at this time of year. I've come to observe that is true ... all year, but particularly so during seasonal forcing of spring/sun "rug pulling" on cold patterns is a real modeling error aspect that shouldn't be neglected inclusion in anyone's usage of extended model application. To wit, all those graphical products are interpolatively based upon modeled input parameters, ...such that if the latter are cold bias (destined correct warm), the rest of this statement becomes academic. In other words, be careful with the scale and degree of cold. In the modeled dailies ... already the first of the cold trough incursions into the mid latitude continent scheduled to pass through the 18th thru the 21st, has morphed both shallower at mid and upper level non-hydrostatic hgts, but also tending to shear into a positive slope orientation ... not extending as deeply in latitude as it was when first detected some 10 days ago ( some may recall, model runs depicting 20th major EC winter storm ..etc). That was suggested by some posters back then as a possible correction. Not that anyone argued the point ... but it's worth it to mention because I'm not sure I see why the next trough out there around the 23rd-25th doesn't also attenuate some for the total cold. Granted the 20th hasn't verified yet ... but the process of attenuation is both historically supported, and apparently taking place. I'd also caution that the local hemisphere may also surge in temperature with a cold pattern extinction around the tail-end of the month/first week of April - as an impending correction. All polarward index domain spaces neutralizing and as many recent years have demonstrated at global scales ( regardless of season, really -), given lesser reasons to wash out cold and warm mid latitudes, there's usually a disproportionately stronger result compared to distant guidance panache. Nonetheless, between this weekend and next weekend, there'll still be a dicey time for some wintry results between the NP-GL-N OV-NE latitudes.

Nothing in the next 2 weeks argues for that ...well, 10 days anyway - nothing about the preceding 3 week's worth of modeling technology ever did suggest otherwise. I don't know who I'm directing this toward, just sayn' Between Friday and the following weekend it's about how much does the cold back off. It's virtually impossible on a world where we are east of the prevailing westerly wind direction, to sustain a -3 SD EPO for 7 straight days without temp departures leaning toward cold. Like I've been saying though...seasonal forcing is huge going forward with the sun increasing by day dumping short wave/infrared rad into the hemisphere, it becomes a matter of how much the delivery gets offset.