Typhoon Tip

Looks burnt

Today's date means nothing to winter ... or spring for that matter. The reality of nature does not oblige these human invented boundaries. Like dates of time in space...etc. There's really nothing in celestial mechanics (the machinery of the solar system ...), and the implications therefrom for Earth's perspective, that gives physical significance for having an Equinox occur. It's merely a geometrical happenstance that must occur as the Earth rotates with a fixed 23.5 tilted axis (from the vertical), while then endlessly revolving around a relative fixed point in space, the sun. Which calling these aspect fixed is really approximating anyway... but for the sake of discussion. The sun does wobble as it's retinue of planetary gravitational bodies et al, move around it and induce their own pull. There's also changes in the orbits (delta eccentricities) that are small, but non-zero over the many Millennia ... But for the sake of discussion, it's not a violation of reasoning to just assume the sun a fix point in space (relative constant), and then the aspect of Earth's tilted axis then moving around it along an ~ circular pathway, as dependably repeating for billions of years ... At some point along that constant journey around the sun that repeats every full year, the axis of tilt has to pass a point along the way where the 24 hour day ends up evenly split ( "Equi" ) between day and night ("nox") ... = Equinox. That's all it is. The 22nd and the 19th are just as important. That's about it. The winter doesn't stop, nor does spring begin just because there is a system of human invented Laws that must be obeyed by citizens. Otherwise, there would not be a single year since all this was created some 4.5 billion years ago, that didn't end up with some sort of misdemeanor charge if not an arrest for something more criminal. 4.5 billion March 20th guilty of cite-able offenses ....

This may perhaps belong in the pollution thread, but does have a place here as well ... https://phys.org/news/2025-03-scientists-reveal-hidden-sunlight-driven.html

It's been a funny thing where "attribution" is clearly in tact, yet we are perceptively being held at the farthest end of the cold side as is physically possible given the laws of nature. jeez

There's a distant telecon argument for tipping the mass field's into a cooler west, warmer east mid latitudes but not really until after the 28th and maturing through the first week of April. That on the Euro appears to jump the gun by a week or so. The ens mean, from which the telecons are calculated, are also not really showing that sort of warm drama by that time, and the first week of April or even the last couple of days of March are too far out in time for models to really materialize numerical signals. In other words, that's just as much bullshit as that big blue snow monster the model had in that similar time range from on 12z yesterday haha. man

fun rhetoric aside ... it's describing why it seems like the telecon's for AO/NAO hold onto this region like sticky tentacles whence the winter beast has already died - the nerves keep gripping, stealing time, sometimes, quite deep into the warm seasons I notice that about this area of the world within just a few short years of moving here - prooobably didn't help that my walk down the gang plank off the boat was onto the streets of Rockport Massachusetts, which worse than Labradorian ass vomit, that location is a dip-stick thermometer ... jammed allll the way in there But as I grew up and ascended into a Meteorological adult, through the pain and anguish of this cold dumpster landmass ( when it gets merely warm here we think we're actually at the party when we're not ) I began to see the reasons why it is. It's really pretty explainable. I love the winter storm season here. I just have difficulty dealing with this region during Aprils, which may as well include late March and early Mays. I will admit, objectively there can be gem days in that time span. This is all really reserved for those "other" times. When they set in... it just is difficult to either endure or describe just how bad it is to live in it. It's like being married to a abusive spouse, that has the bi-polar swings when they are quite charming until to the cork comes off the proverbial bottle - then it's 'what happened to your eye '( or in our case, 'why can't you sit down' ) - it's not enough to justify the marriage and your trapped.

It's about as close to a 10 out of 10 on that proverbial scale as it can be. It's 55 with zero wind in very pure clean air while the sun creates this vibe of having the warm cocoon

Trying not to use big words ( which sits really well with the general readers in here HAHA ) ...but there are planetary circumstances that enhance cold loading where we are in relation to the forcing by the continent upstream. We are geologically doomed in that sense... Namely cold is favored to get dug into SE Canada and the adjacent downstream lower Maritime - where it is also then thermally coupled to the Labradorian ass vomit. This makes us prone to later and later pattern offsets ( code for BDing ... which means Butt Donging to anyone trying to live here! ) Meanwhile, other areas of the globe at similar latitudes are a having blanket sex under the cherry blossom orchards of heaven's waiting grounds ... The super topographic circumstance of the continental north america, and how it interferes with the westerlies, causes an exaggerated correlation of the polar indexes whenever they are flexing over the eastern high latitude continent (Canada). From BDs to vaguely defined or non-descript CFs... to just having a seabreeze from either the S or the E... this is a escape from, not to, destination at this time of year until .. either May 15 or such time in which return is sanely advisable.

Impressive ...30 deg recovery so far. 26 to 56 and counting

https://wmo.int/publication-series/state-of-global-climate-2024

Huh. That doesn't look like a negative NAO to me... neutral perhaps with that flow being slightly top heavy near the Brits but that's also almost too far east of the NAO domain

Depends on the source re the bold? CPC here is different than those 'bell graphics

agreed in principle ... No secret to those that follow my content over the years ...big time proponent of the mathematically derived/statistical correlation fields. Why? because of your ending sentiment there for one... (bold), and when the cave happens, it's never going to be the other direction. It's either the whole way in favor, or...meets half way. But the "correction vectors" point to expressions that will emerge - just a matter of how much. That all said, there is a -EPO/+PNA in the foreground. We're going to need to tip toe through that period as warmth/spring enthusiasts... or, perhaps event suffer an event. That's just the reality in the meantime. But beyond that... unless the tele's change, the correlation goes warm shortly after the 28th or 30th

probably ends as raging smells-like-snow

No way! heh pretty sure you'd say this if it were July

Looked to me like the cold is just less in every direction. It was over-modeled ( perhaps ...) and is just modulating/correcting toward less extreme. Everything else about the wave on the front thing is essentially the same though.

Hypothesis ... but I wonder if that curve doesn't ascend above 2024 or at least match, over the next month as the sun continues to seasonally rise over the northern hemisphere. During that period, the land masses will be brightening their thermal contribution ( increasing absorption --> LR ...etc), while at the same time, the southern hemisphere's still contributing source due to summer lagging. One aspect that may interfere ( keep things 'artificially' colder ) is that the hemispheric pattern foot appears to be situating a cold variant. There is tendencies to A/B phase the North Pacific circulation mode, and that is a cold load into eastern Asia and the North American continent, as well as tendencies to do so in N Europ over to the Urals. That may offset the initial warming response as the climbing sun angle happens quite fast at this time of year. Interesting...

Another one of these crushingly deep radiational cooling nights. 25 here 36 up stairs on the hill at ORH 11 F variance between ... I feel like it's winter really until the frost stops. Period. I don't care if it's 80.... if this cold crap can't stop at night where we plumb to brick earth depths, it's still winter. You just may not be getting the fuller plate of offerings but the season's stuck in piece of shit purgatory until that stops.

... yet another way to consider things, it's just past mid March. What are we expecting for sensible weather, or what the day-to-day modeling cinema really should be for warm enthusiast d-dripping haha I realize the last 15 to 20 years worth of springs have maybe molded perceptions. This year (so far) seems to be a dichotomy of aspects. It's appealing as cold and lingering in the pattern, replete with risks therein ...while also being warmer than normal. The other thing that makes this perception aspect interesting is that we are blazing away with +4 to +5 type departures as of the 15th at the major climate sites, yet we're feeling lovelorn for spring? I don't know how fair or just any sense of loss really is ... I blame the models. I think there's a collective psychobabble response thing that happens when the impressions given by the models, over time, tint people's perceptions of what the reality is. If the models are consummately showing X when people want Y, there's this mood.

from 360 hour out ... ? no, it wasn't

Heh unlikely to ever happen, if it even shows up on tonight's run

Unless it's May 2005 ... all kvetching considered, that May was far worse. It qualifies as the worse calendar month that's ever happened, since that fateful day a comet impacted 65 million years ago ... kicking off a mass extinction that would end the dinosaurs reign. It's amazing humanity survived 2005 as it is, it was so macabre miserable - poets were left speechless. Mathmaticians left it as an unsolvable three-body problem of sodomy

It's funny he refers to it as a "tunnel" because that's precisely what gets stuffed by it right up the tunnel !

Frankly ... I like the UKMET's look for Friday the best. It really this should do jack shit. I could see it smelling like snow cold mist as it ends more than actual snow in the air. It's a progressive system in a pattern foot that has never favored anything deepening/developing in time since 2015 so -

You guys didn't ask me but re the operational majors. The GFS typically lags behind the others during the winter into spring seasonal change. It's a subtle issue with that guidance ( not very obvious ...) but it tends too end up with a surplus of cold heights out in time. I've even mused at times that it seemed to do so at the same rate the complexion of the hemisphere should be gaining heights from solar forcing and normal migration. It's like its bias almost proportionately offsets spring's advance. That's why if anyone's bothered to remember how the model has behaved during this time of year, over the years ..., you might recall that it tends to end up with longer ranges that look like winter synoptics at oddly late times. Say you are looking at a May 8th LR outlook from April 25th, and it's ending up with blue dipping lines S of Chicago with turbo jet strengths... Meanwhile, the other guidance are already hinting at Sonoran/SW heat releases. Anyway, there's a pretty obvious multi-guidance ens sourced -WPO/+PNA ( EPO's a little flat... but whatever ) between the 23rdish and the 30thlike ... Uh, not a good look for spring/warm enthusiasts. So both these colder correlations, and the GFS doing so anyway ... are concurrently true. There's a lot of reasons to suspect that we won't max as cold as the correlations would fit, however - rabbit hole. You know ...we just went through almost 10 days of -NAO, much of which was even west based, yet put up positive departures for the period in March. Correlations have been getting stressed over the years ... That look, -WPO/+PNA showed up during this winter on a couple of occasions. Yet, only unrelenting poor performance drove many of us to divorce our ambitions for the seasonal intercourse so to speak, so now in spring? It gets even uglier. We'll see, but to me the GFS should be suspect when given any excuse to validate it's masturbatory habits with the N stream. While at the same time ... -WPO/+PNA ... could still perform when we least expect it to do so, thus ... abasing the veracity of this clad reasoning in lieu of enabling fuckery.