Typhoon Tip

Let this be a lesson to the Met community ...these things always curl deeply/gauge backward into rising heights.

Watch it be 70s 100s heat and destruction heat 100s 70s the next 4 days. 0 heat wave with severe impact

Radar looks like 70s/light rain Sunday wah wah wahhhh

Im wondering how the rest of the summer will be. I’ve seen this several times since 2016 … we get a heat surge in the last week of June/first week of July … then the rest of those summers relaxed back to an uninspired temperate boredom really. Onward to a no show hurricane season then a gradient saturated piece of shit waste of time winter If we reset the dial on the solstice, “suddenly” we’ve seen this before.

This sounds remarkably similar to the environmental circumstances within which we had that severe event here 2 weeks ago.. Same time of day... seemingly nil SBCAPE ... but a pocket of EML was tapped by a small cell that then nuked Although surface based instability progs at that time of day are essentially nil, steepening lapse rates aloft support nearly 1500 J/kg of MUCAPE with increasing effective shear to around 40-45 kt, a shear/instability space which could support embedded elevated supercells above more stable sfc layer.

Stunning out there ... 81 F with late day summer solstice sun, and wind ventilation pushing warm air is really earned after some of those god forsaken days of May

so it's made it to 81 F here same next door at KFIT.. It's a weird combination getting these canopy leaner wind gusts at that warm of a temperature. ...just anecdotally.

Same page ... This has evolution room, tho. It's really almost ideal. So we'll see, but for now. If it's 98/72 ... it's not going to make any difference if it's 101/72 save posterity perhaps. Also, many times I've seen big heat, for 3 hours in the afternoon the 72 DPs slip to 66ies while the temperatures are at apex.

no shit ( bold ) I've started bringing this observation up about 15+ years ago actually ... long before it even showed up in papers, that the HC was appearing to be enlarged(ing). I have been relating it to winter gradient steepening and the observed increase in basal geostrophic wind velocities - also the jet cores them selves have quickened. Lot of air-land speed record on west --> east flying commercial air craft over the Pac and Atlantic flight routes in the last 20 years. Anyway, it's effecting storm morphology... and precipitation distribution as well as frequency in the winter. But the cloud aspect ... yeah that's interesting too.

Euro's been having increased run to run variability on details with this week. still, the ens are about at the ceiling for the means. I'm wondering if this doesn't have an extra special sauce with it and the models might or might not even see it - Oper Euro looks lagged/too cool on Monday - may be a mixing issue

I liked your idea of a feeble kind of onshore wind unable to really cool beach/shore roads down much below 87 or so, while the baseball fields just inland have EMTs hauling heat victims away... (well, you didn't say that but I'm havin fun with it ) This could also be a great way to draw sharks closer to the Atlantic side swimmers, huh.

Scott's right in that assessment ... it's a warmer than normal mid latitude continent synoptic and super synoptic ( tendency...) through 300+ hours. The GFS actually rolls big heat back in by next Saturday, and I'm not completely sold on the idea that Thur and Frid will really turn out that corrected. Even if so, it transient and would likely yield the bigger signal with at least episodic heat returns. GGEM is essentially the same.

These models are actually responding to the rapidity of the ridge burst in the larger synoptic sense. The MCS zygote is already skirting E through the NP Saturday but then it moves into a favorable differential thickness packing where the ridge/heat suddenly expands NE... It's possible the CIN shuts the door in NE while the NAM is still "sort of" right about the outflow boundary.. I could see that being a burst of wind and a coughing shelf cloud field that doesn't have anything aft of it. So sort of mid way between the global and meso idea -

yes ...it does, whenever in the winter the Euro's given the base a dopamine jolt and the gfs' shittin' in punch bowl blows the Euro out of the water

NAM is fascinating .. it's doing a classic plains outflow boundary severe response on the trailing edge of a derecho outflow boundary at 11am Sunday, then... rolls that mess out in time for big heat numbers by 20z later that afternoon.... Below is 11am... by 4pm, it's 90+ with no trace of this and west wind everywhere. GFS does not have this ... ends up 95 to 99

Jesus ...look at this 582+ dam thickness ballooning over us by 4pm Sunday afternoon... What ever machine numbers are on that day, go bigger. Very strange to have a Caribou low with that type of circulation and that going on simultaneously. this is highly unusual idiosyncratic behavior

heh... it still has it though. Euro and GGEM's been on it as well... Granted it sucks with the placement.... It's ripping it more E and not curving it south. I'd still suggest that it's possible it turns the corner. Btw, this 12z NAM implies a kind of heat burst Sunday afternoon for eastern zones. The grid numbers suggest a wall of big heat sweeps in after 18z. It's not a 'textbook' heat burst, but it could surge from lower 80s to upper 90s late that day.

It's no accident ...I just posted about it -

Probably attribution/CC -related in some way but I have noticing this "something's wrong" effect that no one's really noticing going on all over the place, for a few years for that matter. They're subtle indicators of a "cancerous climate" if you ask me - but heh...I'm just a creative writer on the side. But this below is an example. It's not that unusual to park anomalies right next to each other, as general practice - it's the degree of the deltas that is the unusual aspect. I mean look at this shit up there - that's gotta be unusual relative to climate one would think Meanwhile, at this time, there are 595 heights over PA and probably mid 90s heat from PHL to PWM ( 99 hours off the 00z run). I have a memory like a steel trap for patterns ...going all the way back. It's my own Rain Man ability ( hey everyone's got one). I don't recall seeing snow events after the Solsitice, that far S that often, and certainly not when the mid latitudes, right adjacently, are trying host a heat wave.

that above is why this heat may truncate mid week while that large synoptic appeal of that ridge is still in place. That models are sort of eroding the ridge out from underneath ...like water under a sandcastle. The problem is, that overactive jet (anachronistic for late June) up there fits the seasonal trend of ... basically a tendency for over active jets. There's a reason the eastern half of the mid latitude continent has just gone through the windiest AM month span in 50 years ( check that but something like that...). Anyway, these powerful jets tunneling through the skies over N Ontario will tend to mechanize polar highs ( summer versions of them...). Regardless of season, the +PP then suppresses the boundary S, under cutting the ridge, and that ends the heat. Winter or summer, the fronts seldom end up parked through here... they end up either S, or, the whole construct turns out wrong and they don't come. But at least in my experience, lodging right here is rare. It's possible the models back off this jet bomb up there...which may mitigate some of that going on.. but we'll see.

He's like Ineedachill pill when it comes to snow. Both of them 'em are so out of control jazzed at all times for their respective interest area of weather, that there's no filtration of analytics at first bearing witness to some chart; they just autopost it like this guy as though it's 'totally possible'

Yeah... "daily" thunderstorms sounds like something that seldom occurs here... The models may show that from 7 days out but what you're more typically going to observe is one day of it. After which it shifts south or southeast and we're watching trains of convective complexes from eastern OH to central NJ. Maybe a renegade shower over White Plains NY.

The taconic hills with their 2000' ridge lines ?

I know... Speilberg might have been on to something -