Typhoon Tip

this low has bombed down to 1004 mb

I suspect Ineedsnow has undiagnosed ( or diagnosed ... either way) hypertension. As soon as that corrects down with medication and/or lifestyle change, or a combination of both, he'll start getting rib chills and cold hands like the rest of normalcy. Such that these claimed sunny and 45 F "beautiful" days will epiphany the reality, this is piece of shit weather in May. LOL.

It'll be interesting to see where May's monthly averages stand come Tuesday morning next week, after this near 7 day onslaught of grossly under performing temperatures. HFD corrected from 5 and change all the way down to 3.3 as of today, and ORH is down to 2.6... These may seem like big numbers, but they were 1.5 to 2X larger than this just last week, so this is correcting pretty fast. Today may end up being something extraordinary like a -20 day... tomorrow, not much better. These are wagon negatives to pull along the averages yet.

45 masturbatory degrees ... and by the fucked way, the very most recent climate monitoring/reports have the global temperatures still essentially edging the upper edge of historically hot. So ... whatever this is ( most likely another CC cold meander phenomenon...) it might be only happening here - any other hapless picked-on regions of the world notwithstanding.

just grousin' I think we've been in it all week. Gaia's jammed our heads up its ass since Monday -

Wunder's cartoon radar has snow pixels dappling the scan over the lower Greens

meh, front versus back of the balls - even stench

It barely gets below 996 mb ... ha. I get the enthusiasm for weather events and applaud that, but... she ain't no tempest. It's really just a perfect timing of large scale synoptics that takes a piece of shit low and enables it to seriously f-up almost 3 consecutive days. Welcome to spring in New England

yeah, wtf ... 2005 had 3 nor'easters spanning 2.5 weeks from the 10th to the end of the month. Each was below 995 in depth ...I remember. That product Ben used says ERA5; wonder about that source.

I wish there was a functional feature to block a chosen person's ability to place an emoji upon the down right corner of these posts... So when some -SAD insufferable incel puts a 100% approval on a hate post it tells them, 'seek help' instead. LOL

The epicosity of suck is absolute today... 45 F, slate gray with wind at times has utterly 0 redeeming value. Between today, tomorrow, right thru early Saturday is basically rock bottom for this spring if you ask me. Hell if it'd done this crap in April, I'd almost give it a pass because April's abysmality ( if that could ever be a word ) leaves no expectation anyway so it's kind of living up to it's billing.. But this? In late May? Nope, it is too late in the year to be save rep-wise. Pure putrescence

Making 'merica great agi'n has NWS short staffed and stressed to substantive analysis ?

Yeah ... a donut stuffing machine of a CCB stackin snow totals to nut sacks while you're sunny at 7 F looking at a dense cirrus shield on your southern horizon sounds 'bout right

small consolation perhaps but in looking over the qpf from various products this has a real chance at either maxing or being prolific enough right where there is lingering deficits/ongoing drought monitoring up in ne ma/se nh

If loop below it really exemplifies... really is about as bad a synoptic predicament as possible without a comet impact on Earth ... https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/

I'm just glad it gone by late Friday... Saturday's gonna suck though - but it won't be sheets of rain with nape soothing cat paws in the hills at least. The flow on the backside of this thing isn't strong. Not enough gradient. That actually limits the downslope drying potential as this thing stalls while death gasping up there over the N GOM ... stagnating a saturated low level that is capped over by post system inversion just above. So that means a putrid Saturday - if more actual NW wind occurs, that might help offset that. We'll see. Otherwise, Sunday should be a marked improvement.

probably this summer 'initiation event' ...first of it's kind, if it indeed takes place as currently hinted in that time frame, won't be of the higher DP ilk. It's got the over top appeal. DPs tend to be higher when we get WAR retrogrades with source arriving from the Arklotex region/Gulf. When the ridge blossoms and is well timed with a heat expulsion from the west ( as I outlined above a -d(PNA) switch in the index), it's pulling air up and over the ridge and it's thus arid kinetically charged air from the the Sonora Desert to west TX region. These source/origin differences matter. The over-top variant can then evolve into a DP richer scenario given time ... because as they then go on to relax, the flow veers more SW, switching from the initial WNW delivery. Then the source is more deep south's continental bio farts and also Gulf of Mexico entrained air. This is all meaningless if the current signal changes - just as it sets right now in the guidance, the initial arrival is from that more arid description above. It's kind of like a mid 80s/62 DP ... 90/63. If the expulsion/'Sonoran heat release' is upper tier, than the temperature side of that would naturally be higher.

The D7 thru 13 telecon modality is -PNA whilst the polar field indexes are positive. At some point along the way here the perennial correlation blurring associated to summer hemispheric L/W breakdown skewing things will set in... but, it's obviously based upon what is actually happening - not what the climate says it should. In this case, there's identifiable Rosby ordering in the hemisphere - although there is some wave skewing noted... So long as as the indenties are still prevalent however, there's correlative value. A -PNA, combined with a relaxed blocking/+AO(NAO) ... is a telecon convergent signal for warm up over the continental mid latitudes. I also like the robust +PNA in the foreground. In my own researching heat wave genesis for the eastern CONUS, I've noted that they are often preceded by a +PNA effectively generating multi day tropospheric thermal fixing over the W/SW aspects of the continent; then the subsequent mass field shift ejects this heat E into a -PNA signaled ridge ballooning. This sequence of events is like a 10-day in wholesale behavior. A model that actually fits what we are seeing in the telecons at this time. The operational versions have already been hinting. With a +PNA maxing in 5 days, then -d(PNA) taking place, then seeing the seesaw at large scale mass field layout in operationals out there is interesting. Not outright predicting a 'Sonoran heat release'/SW expulsion event, but for an extended tapestry of indicators it's a possibility some amount above base-line climatology.

thanks fully... it is not summer - seriously though, there's a improving signal for heat ... well, "warmer" ( lets start there and see where this goes - ) at the end of next week that's open ended heading into June. It's in the extended so no use really commenting on differences in timing onset and/or magnitude and those details for now. But this would coincide with the June 1 climate demarcation standard - which of course means nothing to objective nature ... but seein' and humans like tidy boundaries. lol

Oooh, that's why no weather-related melt downs from Scott this week so far... I wondered how in the hell it could be that this time in Count Rugen's torture chamber wasn't triggering moaning and outrage ... I give it until late afternoon.

I saw a 10 second splash ... but yeah, it's hard to imagine even that much happening given this, https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-New_England-02-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined ...which, that's pretty interesting to see that massive retrograde flow from the NE like that directly opposing that vortex-related flow arriving from the OV. Obviously the one from the west will ultimately win... but the battle will require the depths of misery

I just want it warm … with light lingering breezes extending into the evenings, and the promise of 64 at dawn going to the mid 80s the next day, and the day after that.

nah... Don't let the gloom light of the day along with the negative temperature anomaly sway one's impression of May. It's quite a bit above normal this month, with several days near or even exceeding 80 F - so it wasn't just the lows this time ... With actually a lower cloud anomaly. This is no April. In fact, it's almost an insult to those that hate April for legitimacy to have to accept this month as being anything like what they've suffered all those wretched ass violating Aprils of the past. Lol clear enough?

Kevin's over top warm blast is showing up on some of these recent GFS runs around June 1. This 12z version has a continental warm front demarcating a torpedo heat tube coming from the WNW ... probably 90 considering the sun up thickness is 567, and 572 by late afternoon behind this boundary... transporting 850s to 16+C in an easily tall mixing layer

It's CNN, so taken with caution ... but interesting nonetheless https://www.cnn.com/2025/05/20/climate/ice-sheets-sea-level-rise forward, the journal Communications Earth & Environment. Phys.org has a version too https://phys.org/news/2025-05-15c-paris-climate-agreement-high.html