Typhoon Tip

Embrace it ... it's the only way to "meta-physically" get it to end.

Basically just cat paws for most based on that description. we snowed back to cat paws ...back to snow... back to cat paws...spanning some 7 hours with zip accum, even on car tops, nothing the other morning and ended up approaching 50 F by the end of the day. The 12z Euro proffered some hope for Sunday, with improving by mid day considerably over the previous run. It's a weak bag aloft/closing system with weak gradients beneath it, so it's not like a system in the winter that "anchors" in the models... they can error on how close and inundating the low will be even at short ranges within those synoptic circumstance.

HAHA. ... might have helped if i included the y axis (height)... but the top is higher in elevation ...etc. just saying that a, it's not abundantly clear this was truly a down migrating warm anomaly associated to the SSWs and b, probably a hint to that uncertainty ( if not 'no' ), the AO didn't really demonstrate a big negative phase forcing - the correlated index depression doesn't go way up and down like that... the whole behavior is whack really.

Unclear (bold) .. to me, anyway. I mean at a glance this ( below..) looks a little like a down-welling mass, but not convincingly as such compared to other more obvious/verified examples. The morphology of this is kind of screwy... It really looks a little like both down-welling, and just simultaneous multi-layer warming took place. Either way, clearly some residual thermal inversion sort of "spilled" ( right side ) of this graphical illustration ( source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/ ) ... pretty low, low enough not to be a terrible correlation with blocking. However, the AO did not respond so well (farther below). If anything, smoothing out these camel toe migrations the mean's been rather positive. So it's all unclear

It's a good question ... it's endemic to winters lately, since ~ 2002 with more coherency, where compression in the mid or core winter heights times limits the middle spectrum cyclones, but interestingly ... the rare bombs have more power.. Anyway, as the seasonal onset of lessening gradient (spring) sets the flow more flaccid ... there's a window there whence we observe more late season blocking. More energy can then get expressed at smaller scales for one, lending to these types of systems. But also, just in general these cold meander patterns and associated storms make springs ( autumns too ) become more wildly variable between cold snaps and warm interruptions. This year appears to be much of this going on, but super-imposing is this lingering planetary Rossby signal, the same one that kept us chilly ( relatively so...) much of the way, anyway. When the flow is compressed, that speeds up the baser wind velocities - it's like an exchange. As we add one or two more of those 500 mb height lines in the total gradient, the balanced geostrophic wind speeds physically increase. Physically, the speeding up is likely proportional to some negative interference quotient that the models seem to have issues with, particularly in the extended performance. They seem to normalize the neg out - it may be partial in why we have trouble maintaining amplitude.

yeah...that's likely to change imho. Not intending to make a challenge with that, just sayn' there are larger hemisphere changes going on by then so we'll see. Namely, the EPS/GEFS/GEPs all send the WPO block across the N Pac and end up with a low amplitude -EPO, which at this time of year, tends to create flat troughs in Great Basin longitude...transmitting a ridge over the eastern mid latitude continent. Already seeing that manifest in the long range operational versions, and the spatial synoptics of the ens also hinting. It's probably a race... but the Euro operational signal is massively asynchronous with all that... and besides, I've yet to see amplitude not fail to diminish or devolve into something more benign, when moving eye candy in that range into the mid and eventual wheelhouses.

Euro's most likely massively over amplified with that latter thing, Easter weekend. In fact the other operational models, including it's own ensemble mean ... altogether argue whether it can even exist. Pattern's in the process of modulating away from the +PNA stuff by then. we'll see.. Fledgling warm signal after the 20th though -

If it's those temperatures during that mid month pattern mode ... imagine what those numbers would look like if the pattern foot was actually a warm one. That's how CC is insidious ... it seems to conceal itself from common experience, thus suspends believability, quite proficiently that way. The key is in the word "global" ... the world doesn't end at your horizon.

still winter

still winter ...

jesus what a piece of shit euro run that is... take ugly, and beat it upside the head for an hour -

mm I think April's always just been a particularly loathsome month. I'd be willing to bet that this particular geographic region is in the short list of worst places to be stuck experiencing, with respect to the same latitude, around planet Earth during mid spring.

I'm just happy the front's finally here to scour out the 4 straight days of dungeon skies

No sun ... even worse.

...Continuation from 'Global Average Temperature 2024' ( probably should have started this a couple of months ago - ) January 2025 ~ +1.8C above the pre 1850 level, according to Copernicus February 2025 ~ +1.8C above the pre 1850 level, according to Copernicus March 2025 continued the remarkable trend, being the 2nd warmest March in the history of record, https://phys.org/news/2025-04-global-temperatures-historic-highs-eu.html

Man tomorrow is just gonna be a straight piece of absolute shit cold misery. … in full April sun

Good. That was the intent

there's another school of reason that they're being gutted in order to make america great again, to the point where they don't have the bandwidth to dink around with geographic outlines anymore... hmm?

No

Telecon throws the entire month away April’s the month of the false signals - that’s about ur only hope … that the rug gets pulled on the cold signal, but a truly massive -WPO (even looks like a standing wave ) is dominating the hemisphere. It’s transitively sending negative wave space over the eastern continent. I’m seeing this repeatedly manifesting in the realized charts as switching between a N stream Ontario, pulling out and exposing +PNA underneath to take its place when it does. Basically pick ur dildo but one way or the other you’re getting fucked… In short, it doesn’t look good, but again maybe the WPO block breaks down in the hemisphere starts the modulate ahead of schedule who knows

12z nam came in snowy ... in two pulses, too. Flat wave tomorrow morning running out S of us tomorrow morning, and then associated with that weird arctic boundary/cyclone knot that brings -12C 800 mb air (btw..jesus christ), the early Tuesday.

You said "everything"

Yeah... pretty sold warm look after the 14th here ...

Interesting... an actual reasonable post from Tolland for once -

Low pressure/cyclones do a lot of damage at times and are impressive enough. But it seems the truly awesome flood events require these stalled frontal scenarios. Lodge in a boundary for 3 days and send a laminar flow of high PWAT air over the top? 'Noah! I'm sorry I castigated you ... save me.' Mixing in some solar heating in the spring along the lifting edge just to be evil ... ... rooves torn asunder crumbling under bridges ...