Typhoon Tip

i may be overt tree hugging in this .. clearly in the minority, but unless the bee's nest is critically located - which most realistically aren't - leave 'em the f* alone. they are hugely beneficial to the local ecological health. from pollinator species, to insect carnivores ( yellows and wasps - ) they do vastly more good than harm honey bees can even be moved by calling a specialist. if a bald face hornet's nest is clinging to the underside of the front door awning, than okay. but in the past, i just avoid them unless it's more obviously necessary. seems like some people wanna go after them just because it is there. hoping that's not the case -

Even the most objectively attempted science is still born of humanity; thus, humanity makes the science less than ideally objective. I agree ... a blizzard of 30" and 100 mph wind gusts happened whether there is a human there to complain about it or not. Like wise, what if it were 133 F routinely out there in the ambience of the world, yet no one happened to have ever felt it - global warming might truly, truly be denied. Fact of the matter is, the 100% objective analysis and conclusion pathway needs to be "weather" anything happens at all. Not whether someone was around to hear the tree fall in the forest.

There's been memes ( unverified by myself but they're out there - ) that advertized a DP record June and July for the OV-NE/MA regions. Again... not sure of the veracity of that, but I was entertaining the notion that this may have robbed some of the kinetic temperatures from getting to the higher levels. See ( you know this - ) the problem with living around the taint of the continent as we do, we are are the end result of gathered bio farts, industrial air waste, and whatever ozone we can possibly imagine, homogenized with soil moisture and the Great Lakes and the Gulf/lower M/A inflow... It's really a problem for us to soar the T side of the T/TD in a longer terms sense of climate because of these mitigators. This is part and parcel in why the hard empirical data over the last 20 years have shown more of the warm climate via the nocturnal temperature contribution to the means. These same mitigation in the top side, holds the bottom side elevated. Not all the time - duh... we're just talking tendencies. But the nighttime lows is where we "swelter" Anyway, in truly assessing the summer departures, I think the thermodynamics of the air mass should really be evaluated. I've often mused to self that similar to the OHC, there should be codified AHC ... or Atmospheric heat content, which is derived from the thickness ( not just height)-related potential surface temperature, then aggregated over time. interesting

So... being in a 'cool synergistic cage' for a week or more, it starts to get hard to visualize getting out of said cage. It kind of conditions the mind into thinking it won't get hot next week some how, some way. Not the most scientific approach of course, no, but there's something to that. It's a similar phenomenon to being in the 5th inning in the 2002 ALCS, with Pedro Martinez on the mound, with the Red Sox leading the Yankees 5-2 at the time ... and just knowing for some creepy reason that the Red Sox season was over. It was more than Grady Little's ambling out to the mound to tuck his tail between his legs when Pedro's ego told him go back. Annnnnd summarily the Yankees scored the two guys that were on base and the rest was history... It's not analogous as a comparison, per se, but just the 6th sense of it. Yet, I kind of would like one last heat departure before putting the ballast of summer in the books (watch us get a heat wave on Sept 10-13th or something...), and committing to missed hurricane season and an early frost/snow in October that heralds in another CC-denied winter shit show. weeee

I think it's interesting because that occurred with either nominal actual negative, or positive anomalies in the 500 mb heights. I'm thinking there was some environmental feed backs that synergistically aided cooler profiles to a realization. There may have been an initial push of cooler total/deep layer troposphere ending the heat wave at the tale end of July. Whatever the source ... it left, but also left a sloped soundings very left of potential aloft. Then, given our geography tending to abuse cold displacement south. If we stack synoptic denser air around the corner of White mountains... it tends not to stop until the Va Capes... I remember a lot of this cooling did come from a slow press S, and then it tipjped SW. A N-door front for us became a BD for the M/A... Then, we slabbed smoke over top during 4 of those days. I'm very suspect that it dimmed the ability to force solar modulation per the course. Yet another factor ... the high pressure moves more E than S, which keeps winds light and none mixing, as well as oceanic contribution (although the flow's been admittedly very light in this latter regard) It's been a hodge-podge of physical feed-backs teaming up. Just in principle, it's a bit incongruous to get this kind of persisting negative low level temperature result, when under heights persistently above 582 and even approaching 590 at times. Even the thickness' were above 560 per the course. We've observed temperatures close to 90 at 564 dm thickness. yet days pinned in the 70s. So these metrics demo that this was a bit of an unusual occurrence. Not signifying or implicating anything other than the objective observation of these field metrics vs results.

There's liable to be sea-breezes into eastern MA and coastal CNE with that synopsis today. It'll keep temps down, so using Logan for real world experience is probably a dumb idea. Later in the day, this could possibly gathered enough mass to sneak a low level cooling west to a termination somewhere near an Ayer - Worcester position.. Not certain though because tho the look for that is in place, even the higher res suppress a wavy breeze boundary from moving W. Prior to that the highs should make the low or mid 80s.

It's because the mean latitude of the westerlies/gradient is shifting N associated with CC. A shift that's doing so on the scale of life time, not mere seasons... So we don't really observe it year to year, but 15 or 20 years goes by and the jet axis are N of where they were... And idiosyncratic aspects emerge like like that where positive height anomalies cushion under the nadirs of the planetary wave spacings. I've noticed this more and more so over the years... where the bottom of the L/W axis appear to be 'compressing a balloon' at time.

Anomalies are relative to climatology. 18C at 850 mb (for example) over CON is more anomalous than it is over PHL. CON bleeds and PHL pisses

https://www.instagram.com/p/DNDngQCTCg4/?igsh=MTF4N3lpa2ozdDdxcw==

yup.. mentioned this earlier in the day. It may not feature a scalar temperature that bests late June, and recently in late July, but ends up with first place in the aggregate. Summing up 8 days straight of 91 to 95 is a greater "AHC" ( Atmospheric Heat Content ).

Euro's pretty straight forward.... you pick: do you want the heat, or do you want the hurricane. this rendition sends more heat. at least in the geopotential medium. not sure what the sfc/ 2-m stuff looks like but the AN is still evident above.

feels pretty warm.

I wanna say ... 1999? there were a couple of obnoxious warm departures between Halloween and January 1 that late autumn/early winter. The SE ridge had become proxy over the flow east across the continent, and each time it lasted a week. I remember consecutive days in the upper 60s balm, with no leaves on the trees and sweating streets. One of them had a couple days to 74. Something like that, tho not as extreme took place in 2006, too.

That's actually more Nina I thought - the SE ridge and Nina are lusty sweaty bed companions during winter... but heh.... CC will f* it all up too

managing a property from oversees? hmmm

Huh. Actual bright sun blazin away out there

It’s a bigger problem … I'm not disagreeing with you below; more like adding to it - it’s a socio-technological related forcing in group response. There is too much varied information, exceeding processing/categorization capacity of most of population. It’s entirely intuitive that this will integrate unfavorably in groups and larger orders … setting off the cultural mode of distrust of information - compounding this dilemma … there are nefarious manipulators clever enough to even leverage that confusion because they benefit from uncertainty and the anxiety an uncertain world instills at a personal level. This is why nationalism-type modes have popularized in recent decades, world over. It’s really all a defensive contraction born out of fear of lost identity(s). The sense of invading ethos breeds pathos. Tribalism in some respects is also apropos as a response description. So it’s really more than media. It’s how tech has interfered with the social evolution of humanity. Media, of all forms, being ‘techno-reliant’ is certainly part of that. But technology forcing occurring so fast in history is destabilizing. Some can handle it. Many can not. There are legit information sources but hard to ferret them out in a blizzard … Then the few that engage in the Machiavellian distortion shit are living in a hay-day, for their nefarious goals thrive in a basis of obfuscating information saturation. All they need is to appeal to nationalistic opinions, if not flavoring rhetoric in that regard, and the suggestions will resonate.

Or, I could have just typed this hahaha

Just musing over the 2-meter temp products from Pivotal ... wow. No shit! The GFS has something like a 8 consecutive days in the low and mid 90s, with a couple of them tickling a hundred. The Euro has a trough bullying across southern Canada ~ 210 or so hours.. mm, not impossible, but the ensembles are less emphatic with that idea. Despite that potential interruption ( which obviously subject to change at this range anyway ), the model still has multiple days of 90+, even sending 100 this next Wednesday. It may be that what is in store is the greatest heat of the season by virtue of length. That big heat near the tale end of June was short and of course very sweet. The one at the end of July, with record highs at multiple climo sites around S and C NE, was also not exceptionally long. But this looks in the models like the scalars might be 2-3 less, but lasting for a long time. It would win out in bulk....

That was toasty looking 00Z GFS run. At least aloft... Not sure what the surface shenanigans are up to in that run, but from D6 to something like D12 there's an impressive eastern mid latitude height layout. Almost looks and behaves like a resonant feed-back scenario, too - something that I'd all but given up on. Incapable of happening over eastern N/A mid latitudes. Ensembles products: In simple terms they are all implying a trough in the west, ridge in the east from ~D5+. That's the general take away. Little longer version: The numerical teleconnectors have gotten hotter, regardless of the operational GFS' romance with the idea. So at present there is a warm signal in ensemble-derived modes. I had commented recently that the numbers were more nominal looking. Thru yesterday that was true, but this has changed since. You almost wonder if that should have been expected ... I remember commenting to Scott a week ago that there was a recurring theme to lower/correct Pacific NW heights downward. Eventually, the numbers will tend to align with the spatial synoptic behavior. We've since passed through a +PNA, perhaps temporarily offsetting that.. but putting that mode behind, it seems the previous tendency is reappearing now. My guess is that the ACATT would rather that stops doing that by November, and not return until next spring, but cross that bridge I guess. lol CPC's PNA source is still -D(pna) but it only descends to neutral. Other sources have it going to -2 SD - which is strange, because the PNA is so huge as a physical domain space, that it's not trivial having that entire index be either. So something is a bit off there... But they all agree on a -EPO during the onset of the -D(PNA) regardless of magnitude. That combination at this time of year is still a heat signal over eastern mid latitude continent. Whatever comes up ... it's likely the last bid for multi-day 90+

You guys are such goobers First of all if that set up that way to the west system would curve down into Mexico and the east system a curve out to sea. So yeah, hopefully the media made a big deal out of a double hit and then that happens

We’ll see… The AO is going negative over the next week.

https://www.instagram.com/p/DM_hGUPy9sp/?igsh=MW0wOXY2aTl6N3JyeQ==

At 300+ hours!? Mathew is being "grossly" out of line. Complete bullshit. No technology has any requirement in that range to be factual with that granularity. Fact... running these tool out that far is nothing other than entertainment.

I'm wondering if it can get hot underneath the telecon suggestion. That's a bad bad sign for the CC deniers ha