Typhoon Tip

ha... wasn't actually seeing that 12z gfs when wrote that but yeah I guess. it's possible

yeah maybe the 5th -9th if we wanted to hone into a time span. There's an interesting ( sort of ..) look there with a strong N branch moving by N, while there is a subtle split toting along a S stream wave...It's all like the last of the +PNA as it it finally soon collapses. Could be a seasonal exit event so to speak. last hurrah. Getting a 33" April 97 redux of course but that's a different thing .haha

Just reviewed the teleconnector spread from overnight. The numbers went next level for mid month. There's need to establish continuity ... barring that failure, the short version is that the total spread supports a very warm period. It isn't too absurd to suggest something more extraordinary could emerge in that ~ 15th to 20th period. Note, warmth is the most fragile of all metrics in guidance at extended leads. That is an understatement in March. It is also 2 weeks+ away ... so this is purely for early monitoring. Longer version, teleconnector convergence via multiple mass-field/domain sources. There is an overlap in space and time, when also considering the functional lags that exist in the correlating source/regions. Example, The EPO is very warm on it's own. The PNA is just warm. However, when you then combine those two, look for positive feedback amplitude. Meanwhile, the NAO, a metric I use more to assess the exit latitude/orientation of the westerlies across the eastern mid latitude continent, is lodged up at +2SD (~) in the week prior and sustains positive during these EPO(PNA) synergies. Thus, we're losing any way to stop a height expansion from occurring over the eastern continent, one that comes with an unusually high ceiling. These early spring heat bomb synoptic scenarios have been going off all over the planet, with higher frequency, for the last 20 years. They are different than run-o-the-mill balm you might get for a couple of days in melt and mud seasons. They take you to June, with sun shining type stuff. It's okay to try and recognize/study in attempt to see one coming. As an afterthought .. one of the concepts that haunts for me is how enabling I suspect this season's weirdly unrelenting -EPO and cold loaded continent may have guided perceptions. If/when removing that factor, there is implication baked in that the correction, both sensibly and in the objective results, would have surprisingly big potential. It's going to be interesting as we head deeper into March ... seeing how/if this manifests.

I might be willing to sell that 5th cutter... stand by on that oh wait - that actually looks clean ... nevermind

That's a whiplash. 24 hours to take the hydrostatic height from 516 dm to 546 ... and there's no stopping them from rising probably to 560 over the next 12. That's like going from 32 to 72 in 2 days.

startin to look that way

That April 2002 was … can’t believe I forgot that one but yeah. The preceding year was a La Niña ENSO phase. The heat was something but I remember the backdoor fronts (2 of them that month) were only back to 60 … not the typical 40 you’d associate with BDs at that time of year. Anyway … we’ll see

There is a time decay on that though. If they occur too late, the seasonal breakdown of the hemispheric eddy goes so far the circuitry's cut and the cycle won't complete - the correlations peeters out.

Not really ... not much for seasonal wx forecasting. Not my bag ... Ray or someone may have an idea. i guess i could say that La Nina have been known to throw out some ridic heat early. 1976 was a whopper. The VAX up at UML had ASOS records going back that far, and there was a heat wave in April that year that was like 92/93/96/94 ... during a month that seldom saw a high less than 75 - exceedingly rare for a strapped down Labradorian rape month like April... that's an extreme though. Since 2000, we've been getting weird warm spells early (Feb-Apr) that skew the real picture, because they occurred regardless of what ENSO this or that was taking place. i dunno.

Well, I'm not intending to doom the summer of 2025. haha. Just that these DP stagnated warm cesspool summer types ...yeah, they are depressing - to me. And as I was saying to Scoot, I'm hoping to avoid that type of summer as we set to put this winter out of its misery. You know ... there are those amongst us that ( seemingly...) actually love asthma attacks from stachybotrys chartarum spores, the spread of exotic fungi, and/or invasive biting species migration that harbor pathogens the likes of which would make a Nazi bioweapons researcher envious - and they get all that, for free, when every day is 81/77 ... I don't know who they are ( or if they are really human beings - ) but in the spirit of WOKIsm, we can't leave them out I guess

after the 10th ... yeah, more or less. It's obviously bs to attempt details. Like, most Mets like to refer to long leads as percentages chances for above, much above, below or much below, leaving "warm" and/or "mild" adjectives off the table Thing is, merely above normal for March 15 isn't exactly warm water therapy to the back of balls. We'd need to get much higher than just above average to fit that impression. Subjectivity notwithstanding. 50s persistently is early spring and would qualify as comprehensive thawing for example. Again, the "scale and breadth of the expansion" is naturally going to be less certain for the time being.

Anyway, unless the indexes change, the present long range continues to blow torch. By the Ides of the month, comprehensive thaw and a decidedly different sensible weather permeates. There are no other offset indicators at this time when using the teleconnectors. The spatial synoptic illustrations look cold through the 10th but they probably should, considering the modest -EPO dump in the foreground ( roughly the 5th...). I could see it where the scale and breadth of warm expansion afterward toward mid month may presently/merely have some emergence challenges, for the guidance having to 'see' through that cold ish gauntlet in the foreground. Model performance on the other side of inflection points is typically not that great.

Who said "extinct" ? But ... in fairness to the discussion, plausibly being forced into a population correction? It should certainly be considered as an outcome on the table of possibilities. We may be able to go from present day, into a "forced correction" but unlikely. "Forced" usually that requires an outcome people do not want to experience. In order to mitigate losses, either way ... prepare. That's the idea there

So you are into temperature concerns... word. I'm sick of this, "convective debris by 1 pm in 78 DPs, with thunder boomin away always somewhere else ..." and it's penetrative warm wetness that seems to even get into your bed it is so inundating - if you don't have sufficient hvac methods . It's like we get this weakness in the 500 mb height field - I think it's related to these unbearable record hot heat domes going on over western N/A, more and more so in summers. It is causing the flow to physically/necessarily sink in latitude over the eastern continent - in the means. Sure, it won't be all the time, but is however the base-line super synoptic rest state. The flow is SE over VA, S over PA, and that pools in New England. That means like Scott was saying ...we seem to more and more end up with high DPs, which of course is true... There's no seems about - regardless of cause, we are getting persistent DP anomalies. This then inimically leads to +cloud anomalies and basically ... NOT getting the 84/55, WNW breezy, nostalgic summer types.

Kinda what I call 'deck party' weather.

Two replies - not to you personally, but circumstantial Bold above: I doubt that would work in a macro scale, longer term. There may be a repulse response but it would not be sustainable. Insurance, for example, would be raising premiums as area risk spectrum acquires new daunting colors, along with increasing probability for occurrence of previously know etc.. This will approach the economic limitation. Insurance providers would fold operations - we already see this type of failure with companies no longer offering coverage programs in higher risk areas - those that are observably getting bombed, while subsequent attribution is more and and more so connecting the increased disaster frequency to CC...etc... As to mortgage ... Not sure how mortgage has much proxy - those market get corrected based upon metrics related to demand and/or stupidity/speculation of buyers. Maybe there's a way to connect that to forcing response to climate change but... it eludes me. In general, these models don't enforce changes to mitigate human involvement in perpetuating CC. More to say that CC would force their collapse, not the other way around. The 2nd aspect this brings to my mind is a simple precept: the problem with global environmental change has reached a criticality where the solution cannot be found through the ambitions of capitalism. Every source I read that is dealing with the objective reality of CC, and the more than mere probable implications of it ..., are still flawed despite the virtuosity. Because the minute the proposals are seen through the lens of"capitalistic machinery" ... doomed. It, too, is a gross unsustainable response to the problem. Profit motivations drive solution prices, and the prices are not affordable by a mass that is causing the problem. That is a closed loop that cannot solve the ultimate problem. The mass of non-afforders is immediately too large. Everyone has to be integrated into the change - not just those that can afford it. I'm already seeing this... these solar companies, launching all over by anyone with access a couple million bucks and snap-to-fit building crew, charging 50K ... It doesn't matter how they justify that cost... that is not realistic for 80+ % of the population's carbon footprint pie slice to the CC crisis. Taking profit is completely "obsticular" to finding a solution to the real existential threat to everyone alive! And that is the problem... still, the ambient society does not connect CC to an actual existential threat. The solution cannot be found through the lens of making money.

these "warm" summers with dank, black mold in the bathrooms regardless of roaring exit fans and dehumidifiers, and convective debris by 1 pm in 78 DPs, with thunder boomin away always somewhere else ... I fear CC means that's our summers forever. Seems like 7 out of the last 7 summers have been that way. I may have a traumatized memory there to some degree, but the shit summers have been very real. May have to relo at some point. Regardless of cause ... CC or God is an asshole aside, having to rationalize and gaslight self into believing winters aren't as bad as x-yz, when in objective truth they are actually butt rape, followed by putrid summers, with destructive interference stopping anything otherwise regardless of season... that is a hell.

I miss WNW flow summers ... where it's warm, by made to be dryer DPs. My favorite summer weather is 85/55 ...which doesn't allow for a lot of wiggle room, nor likeliness, no. But the sideways sun shine of late afternoon through 7pm after an afternoon of 87/55 ... when there is a light breeze is pure splendor

Humanity needs to begin redirecting energy away from mitigation, toward preparation and adaptation - the former's not going to make it in time https://phys.org/news/2025-02-nations-odds-major-climate-science.html

I betcha dimes to donuts that ends trekking N of us. we'll see -

is there a running tabulation of February 2025?

Looks like spring is trying to invade the guidance to me. I realize we had been tracking another -EPO load and potential cold for ~ Mar 3 - 8th. However, the index' prognostics have backed off that a little, while the longer range synoptic charts have followed along. Still cold in that period, but it's more transient and not as inundating and deep as previous. Prior to the 3rd and after then 9th or so.... we tend to go above machine guidance on sunny days. I see 540 dm thickness up to ORD-BOS in intervals, with off shore wind in the means, and the first thing that comes to mind is that folks will be under estimating/visualizing how mild that will be ... Keep in mind, we still live under the glow lamp of attribution, only suppressed by a persistent -EPO over top a low frequency +PNA winter. This latter aspect has been enabling.

^

Yeah... this is the way I remember those heat bursts as well. Actually was 81, 2017's then 79 2018. I worked in Westborough/Rt 9 just east of Worcester, and my commute took me up 91 to Rt 2 every day. On the both afternoons, it was a similar weird experience having the windows down at 70 mph and still getting back sweat ... in February. Never experienced that kind of heat, at that time of year, ever, in my life, living along 42 N as I have. Just will add, we were at least 70 a couple of other years, too - just not quite as audacious as 2017 and 2018. And in 2016 ( I think it was...) we soared to the mid 80s in that March. I think these occurrences are enough to set people's wick like it's possible to shut things down early. And they are right. However, so is Will. Both are right... It can mean the end. It can also NOT mean the end. March is a fickle month. I remember back in 2011 I think it was, climate sites put up a nearly +10 month. That's hard to do. That requires consistently warm readings from front to back door. I may not have the year right just off the top of my head, but I do recall the immense anomaly of it. And seeing ridic early green up. Even large deciduous species unfurling leafs prior to the end of the month. But on the other hand, we had some years in the last 12 where we warm burst in Feb, and with 0 indicators for a cold March, still ended thumped by major blue bombs.

This incoming week should get the Maple syrup industry up and running. Unless that's already underway... but, I was under the impression that the sap starts moving when days are above freezing, which tends to begin in February, which is why tapping begins after Valentines. If Monday-Thursday work out as 45ers and generally tepid west breezes under nape sun, that seems to fit. Looking forward to that, actually. Even today ... it's 32 on the button this hour, but the wind is very light and sun is a different bird compared to what it was a month ago at this time. The inside of my car is hot LOL. It's nice to amble a bit with arm crossed, pausing to stair for a moment. Later in the week my suspicion is that system between the 28th and 1st ends up piece-of-shitting like all else have. I've really lost patience with this oddity of NOTHING lasting from extended into mid range without attenuation. I'm not even sure it is the pattern and not just an artifact of the modeling technology. I can remember us making this observation and ruminating/commiserating it's occurring with the models back in like 2018 at one of this meet and greets at Funky Murphy's. Yeah, the pattern foot is more progressive, with S/W's moving very fast through a medium with strong base-line geostrophic winds setting air traffic air-land speed records...blah blah... Not sure if it's just this latter aspect causing the models to do that... Either way, I can already see having to rely on the UKfuckumMET to maintain an event diagnostic for the 28th as a tempo for same dance. Beyond that, there's still a -EPO, although the tele prog has backed off a little. Hopefully, it continues to back off... I realize there are those that don't want winter to end, and will see any kind of mood post that doesn't agree as an affront to them personally ... but no. I really don't want winter to continue. PERIOD. I am however capable of compartmentalizing my druthers, and looking at the outlook objectively. With/should a -EPO succeeding, we are not likely going to sustain a 3 day thaw in the foreground. Prooobably have to go back the other way. This is wrt to temperatures... Once we get out past about mm Mar 10... that's when the last of any -EPO is behind; the ongoing -PNA and +NAO will probably mean a more meaningful seasonal change around then. And no, this is not merely hurrying up spring every year. That's for simpletons. It's not just the teleconnector prognostics that signal that. There's other aspects that no one reads when one writes about them -