Typhoon Tip

HAHA ... probably 70F at 15K feet

Okay, yeah I didn't look at the EPS last week to be honest. I just recall several cycles of operational runs showing higher heights aloft, with sfc 2-m's above 85 from those sources. Bravo to the EPS I guess... OH wait. Know what ... I may have f-up the time ranges. There was small interlude of +PNA that rippled through the continent and the operational warmth might have been more aft of that - possible. But, I do believe though that there's some idiosyncratic aspects that were not well handled, that have played into the cooler profile, too. Smoke being one of them. The last 3 days were more than just inconveniently pal looking skies. Plus, the high pressure moving through Quebec when working on top of smoke ...there's a bit of synergistic feedback there -

you get the feeling that idiosyncrasies are teaming up to dim summer though. Smoke this, correcting toward over top highs that ( which import too much E wind ). This week was not going to be BN in the guidance and only turned out that way because of mitigating factors very poorly or not represented a week ago. Meanwhile, lower Asia over to Japan is apparently breaking all kinds of staggering high heat records... We are exiting the solar max in under a week. The first couple of weeks of the solar transition season that begins then will still feature hot enough sun - so it's not an all or nothing environmental aspect, it's a 'turning down the dimmer switch' thing. But, smoke days, and/or poorly models purely chaotically emerged confluence causing over-the-top heavy with +PP, we can't really do that while losing solar potency and expect things to toast up. So, I wouldn't call it "breaking summer's back" ...but it's not a hot implication. It's not helping ( me personally ) that both the spatial layout and telecon, both, are pretty nominal for heat at the moment. The operational runs also deflated some of the geopotential medium along 40 N E of Chicago, so ... they may still be showing some heat in their 2-m temperature distributions and so forth, but -deltas in the overarching metric, while these reasons to not get warm keep happening ... that's not really sending much confidence in heat, either. Stop with the idiosyncratic mitigators would help... That all said, I don't see a significant cold front, nor any compelling reason when studying the recency of the mass fields and the numerics therefrom, that argue for that, either. Mostly, it all looks rather torpid and frankly kind of a boring mid month. Things can change. Again, I wouldn't 86 the outlook for remainder of summer, either. I'm not buying any of the TCs up the EC by the GFS, which does this every year as seemingly perfunctory seasonal error by that model. There's are certain and significant correlated climatologically based structures all but required in the larger flow scheme, that do not include what the GFS is attempting to do.

pretty sure the smoke cost AN yesterday and probably a normal at least west of the city today. ACATT kind of got lucky here. ... does that mean 'all cold all the time' ? I have trouble keeping up with the acronyms around here -

I don't think I've ever seen a BD stall in this position with a high pressure sitting on top of it like that. It's a twig hold back an elephant's ass.

I'm pretty sure we got gypped by smoke both yesterday and today relative to potential.

hmm every 2 days the GFS has an over top +PP doing the Ontario-Quebec transit though. Those are all BD cautions with that model. Euro not so much. So yeah, it's otherwise dog-days of summer tendency in the model runs lately, sure. There's also a tropical signal based on climatology with pattern analog stuff. The models don't key in on climate, more so their physical detection is describing how/why the climate analog stuff evolved the way it had. Either means of prognostic suggest something coming along ... But Scott's right about the EPS and frankly I'm not seeing very climo friendly look overall for any such system to be an issue here. You want a -D(nao) on the western limb, with some sort of establishing S/N steering all the way up.

Getting the distinct impression that this current high level cloud passage has cleaner air immediately behind it when looping the visibles

With that circulation medium? that is so stupid what that model tried to do no chance. although not stupid because no model has any responsibility to correctness at that range

LOL ... yeah, it's all Steve's fault the planet Earth has accelerated CC to the point where unmitigated natural disasters befall a burgeoning population that's been 1,000 years in making an 8 billion population of environmental destroyers ... f*n boomer! sorry that exchange was funny

Fantasy time ... but how about the cat 5 in the lower Bahamas at the end of that.

It seems like I've read a few papers related to climate change enhancing the northern latitude forest growth around the hemisphere. Entering a CC-related dry bias extending several seasons ... --> wild fire frequency increases. Whom and/or what is lighting the proverbial match? If those are relatively constant while fuels increase... more fires. Climate change effects interior continental geography, differently, in time. For example, increased wet/growing seasons initially causing surplus carbon stows above land. Then, as climate changes furthers along creating extremes of drying vs wetting that can extend longer than single seasons and boom. Not very difficult to see where that's going... Suspiciously, this seems 'probably' to be a situation where the fuels were improving over time, while the triggers remain relatively constant. Pure speculation, but given to the known CC relationship with creating extended periods of unusual mid continental drying, there's some intuitive basis to the idea of 'creating firestorm' proneness.

yeah I read of that correlation during the spring 2024 when the plumes came south. just sayn'

sun intensity's recovering some this last hour.. I've noticed that in the past about smoke; it seems to disperse some mass ( but not all ) as the daylight hours progresses.

https://phys.org/news/2025-08-plastic-pollution-grave-health-threat.html

mm...starting to smack like the high temperatures today will take a hit because of smoke.

https://phys.org/news/2025-08-broken-japan.html

Fwiw-

yeah...that's the 5th time I've called that Maine. I know it's NH ...anyway, it was incredible there.

Yesterday was fantastic at Jennes Beach in Maine. The near shore water popped to (est) 69 as the tide was coming back in, right at around 2-4pm, and with 76 air and pure sun. Perfect.

Ha... I did not - Well in that case ... the model product is a piece of shit because there's no way the whole AO domain does that. nope -

well .. i was also intending a good bit of that for snarky sarcasm But I do think like all snarky sarcasm ...there's an "air" of truism in there

I don't ... I'm suspicious that it all collapses and we get shoulder season early blocking by early October, resulting in another early faux winter across mid latitudes, through ~ early Dec... (white Thanks Giggidy?) Then, the real winter arrives as another wind scarped S/W shear show that shits on everyone's winter forecasts with unrelenting windy and mild steady state boredom. Maybe a threat or two, sure... But outside of those, predominately AN months with a lot of jet speed shear with attenuating model outlooks in the nearer terms. It all relaxes in March when a late SSW is just in time to fuck up early next summer with BD indignity days...

no...it's the fact that it covers such a small geographical region. Most of that chart is early autumn. Barely servicing that warm side of the debate, would be a fairer impression of that chart. But again ... I don't trust that GFS solution anyway. Just sayn'

Ha ... pretty skimpy and petty. But I honestly don't know if the GFS run is very confident. The EPS and GEFs means are trending larger heights below 40 N across the continent in the time frame above... Meanwhile, both operational ECMWF and GFS are flip flopping - this 12z run flopped back cooler. Yet ...still the GFS gets a day with big numbers, no less. Flip flopping means limited skill so ens means are more useful. I don't think it's a cooler august. That much seems pretty evident. Question is whether it's mundanely AN or if it may host another heat wave or two.