Typhoon Tip

I wonder if there's an AI version of the entire Euro ensemble suite, or is this just a gimmick operational version? By the way, I haven't seen much improvement by the AI over the standard operational version for the time period that seems to drive people particularly batty, D7 thru 11. That's just anecdotal - I'm sure there must be both a verification and comparative program, far more qualitative and quantitative than that but who knows.

On this side of an imminent -EPO burst ... those model products are likely to bias cold at this time of year. I've come to observe that is true ... all year, but particularly so during seasonal forcing of spring/sun "rug pulling" on cold patterns is a real modeling error aspect that shouldn't be neglected inclusion in anyone's usage of extended model application. To wit, all those graphical products are interpolatively based upon modeled input parameters, ...such that if the latter are cold bias (destined correct warm), the rest of this statement becomes academic. In other words, be careful with the scale and degree of cold. In the modeled dailies ... already the first of the cold trough incursions into the mid latitude continent scheduled to pass through the 18th thru the 21st, has morphed both shallower at mid and upper level non-hydrostatic hgts, but also tending to shear into a positive slope orientation ... not extending as deeply in latitude as it was when first detected some 10 days ago ( some may recall, model runs depicting 20th major EC winter storm ..etc). That was suggested by some posters back then as a possible correction. Not that anyone argued the point ... but it's worth it to mention because I'm not sure I see why the next trough out there around the 23rd-25th doesn't also attenuate some for the total cold. Granted the 20th hasn't verified yet ... but the process of attenuation is both historically supported, and apparently taking place. I'd also caution that the local hemisphere may also surge in temperature with a cold pattern extinction around the tail-end of the month/first week of April - as an impending correction. All polarward index domain spaces neutralizing and as many recent years have demonstrated at global scales ( regardless of season, really -), given lesser reasons to wash out cold and warm mid latitudes, there's usually a disproportionately stronger result compared to distant guidance panache. Nonetheless, between this weekend and next weekend, there'll still be a dicey time for some wintry results between the NP-GL-N OV-NE latitudes.

Nothing in the next 2 weeks argues for that ...well, 10 days anyway - nothing about the preceding 3 week's worth of modeling technology ever did suggest otherwise. I don't know who I'm directing this toward, just sayn' Between Friday and the following weekend it's about how much does the cold back off. It's virtually impossible on a world where we are east of the prevailing westerly wind direction, to sustain a -3 SD EPO for 7 straight days without temp departures leaning toward cold. Like I've been saying though...seasonal forcing is huge going forward with the sun increasing by day dumping short wave/infrared rad into the hemisphere, it becomes a matter of how much the delivery gets offset.

It's my vibe. HA. Blame me, I'm the one that brought it up this morning. Buuut I was also quick to claim it's probably my own personal bias - I'm just remembering those 80 F Februaries ( two of them -) in the last 8 years. And a lot of 80s and 90s in Mar and April. Those were all in fact waaaay beyond the pail compared to anything I personally experienced spanning the previous 40 years for one. But it's just also frequently enough that it's begun to desensitize to it a little. Like Brian said, we're all getting that way a little bit. It's an interesting psycho-babble aspect of how climate erodes and finally does penetrate "expectation spectrum" - if you will.

Tomorrow may be the first 10 top day of the year away from the Labrador scrotum. Using the NAM metrics ( always a questionable wisdom - ), wind is like 3 kts, RH at all cloud heights is far less than 50% ( that means a billion miles of clear sky visibility ), pure unadulterated sun. MET has BDL to 61 - gotta think with +4 at 850 MB machine numbers are going to be too low for everyone from HFD-FIT-ASH, even if the BL doesn't expand to that hgt. Not sure a 160 degree light wind holds off the life sucking force of N Atlantic spring death so pretty sure Scott's sniffin' seaweed pubes by 10 am. Probably out to metrowest of Boston/BED ... May see that on radar slinking inland during the afternoon, too. A lunch stroll has people psyched to get out of work early so they clock out at 3:45 and burst out the lobby doors of their office building right into 47 - wah wahhh.

Since we're on the subject of temperatures... Little surprised that after all that tree whipping yesterday in deep "CAA" we only managed 36 for a low here. Sure, wind keeps the temperatures elevated ... but what this means - I guess - is that we simply are not advecting much actual cold air in this recent environment. Because it's already 47 here. Still breezy so that cancels the 'nape affect' but... should the wind continue to die off and that sun, equinoxian sun, blazes away, today is going to be surprisingly spring like - despite my bad attitude this morning. hahaha I mean I didn't look at the MOS. I'm just looking at this giant Chicxulubian EPO crater on the tele progs and I guess it was too annoying to bother. But seriously this is related to what I mean about the rug pulling stuff.

anyway ... the old school convention would say that we're going to correct the temp means downward substantially... If this were 1990, and we were sitting at ~ +8 on March 12, while staring down the barrel of the teleconnector spread we are now, a neutral expectation by the 24th wouldn't be altogether a terrible anticipation. I mean -4EPO, with a mode switching -1PNA to +1PNA. It's a good thing this didn't happenstance a week before Christmas, huh 'Don't know about March15+ in 2024 ... After 34 years of climate deniers having eaten shit for those 3.4 decades, yet, still eating shit ... while telling us it's the cupcakes of natural cycles. Mm mm all's good. I guess if they mean it's natural in the Universe to eat shit in general ? Well shit ... they hail from an remarkably salient wisdom then. Anyway, whether it's 1990 or 2024 ( removing the climate background - ), the seasonal forcing/sun modifying the atmosphere tends to pull the rug on cold patterns ... It just may be more pronounced, now. I'm wondering if all we get is a couple of wind whacks like yesterday to show for it.

I think it's the sun for me. Once it starts rising earlier, and feeling warmer on the face by the end of February it triggers me. I start thinking nostalgically about ... peaceful deep blue sky days at 73 F with irish green lawns that fragrance of melon when mowed ... or that sweet, distant scent of sugar maple blossoms. Lilacs soon to follow ... What I'm describing there is obviously more late April into early May ...but, I'm just saying, once the sun triggers. The reminiscence it evokes and then the thought of winter becomes like being forced to watch a Burger King commercial 20 minutes after Thanks Giving.

We had the one storm ... I did write words to the affect of some March's made a modest late recovery - but I also qualified that as meaning less for "me," because I hate winter by now. That's just a John thing. I've never been much of a winter appreciator by ...really Feb 20th but negotiable through the end of the month. Once into March? keep it - Just commiserating - ...there are those that share in my feelings on March protracting winters. I am perfectly willing to be a complete hypocritical douche if/when 1888 rings the doorbell. Or even a April 1982 ... 1997. etc. But in a way, those are not hypocritical scenarios. Those sort of exceptionally rare events transcend the 'seasonal druthers' as just being amazing natural events period. They were so rare and exotic that one would have to be on the spectrum or just an idiot not to appreciate in the different light.

HAHAHA

mm sure, why not. some hyperbole to that - It's getting buried in a different consistency perhaps. Whatever it was, it doesn't really imprint indelibly in my memory for whatever reason. I'd have to stare at the objective monthly temperature means, and the snowfall - drill down to specific events and probably of more importance, the geographic pork zones - I wonder if my zone happened to win the sore butt contest. Whenever these discussion come around ... much of the disagreement is fashioned from personal experience bias -

I don't recall any winter being much better frankly, since 2015. Some had a March event that sort of "cheated" their way to a modest recovery but ... I hate winter in March as a standing wave phenomenon ...so those don't count for me. LOL. DJF have all been equally yummy shit-stuffed-down-throat seasons, year after year, now exceeding the length of the 1980s "abysmality" (inventing words) I realize this is not be as true across northern and rarer, central New England.. but along the Rt Poop corridor down here - it's been winter shits for a long, long, long long time

+6 to +10 is some kind of big anomaly but you know... it doesn't "feel" like a torch to me. I think it is because I am still overwhelmed/integrating those 80 ( yeah, 80) events we had in two Feb's, 4 or 5 different March's ...and even a couple April's with a 90 we experienced over the last 10 years. It's probably making my perspective on what a torch is as a little biased. I know it has not been higher than 62 here at mi casa this year, so far though. I'm wondering if this is like the warmest it has been while not actually getting to above 62 - maybe it's all in the lows or just a weird homogeneous same high temp every day or something. Feels like a sneakier +8 ... It'll be interesting to see how these averages look on the 25th and there's some 10 days of -4 SD EPO behind us

JMA's 12z run extrapolates to normal seasonal snowfall for everyone in this sub-forum ... You can really see though that the 3 or so days leading the 19th narrowly miss something extraordinary. -4 SD EPO burst sends a powerful compensating N/stream dive into the N/P ... meanwhile, there's a SW old trough fragment dangling there. Should said fragment get kicked E as the hemispheric torpedo is diving S the two are going to procreate history somewhere in the east. Sorry. Don't blame the messenger. Luckily for us .. .the JMA is the only model suggesting that happens.

Miserable runs for warm weather/spring enthusiasts -

no ...characterizing the MJO isn't supported with behavior observation - We've seen the phases robust in both 8-1-2 and 3-4-5 ... and the pattern hasn't been very well representative of its forcing during either era. Chaotic N/stream is passing in and out of states that "look" quasi coupled but it's really just because the peregrinations of said variability happens to be transiently passing through (circumstantially in the moment). There hemisphere is split above mid latitudes.

For the MJO crew ... your phasing over the next 10 days could not be more in diametrical correlation failure to the -EPO burst being presently agreed upon by the same models ( all of them...) that also have an MJO coverage. Hint, long words for wrong Priceless - The inability to couple anything is becoming so common ...I'm like, don't bother with NINO and MJO and AMOs and PDOs...

It was pretty isolated to township scales while neighboring had far less. It was not really regional scope - it was elevation dependent and/or relegate to N. I don't think anyone cogent or objective would have argued "10 days ago" that an elevation oriented storm would be out of the question. Also, that's not really a fair characterization the way you put that because those solutions 10 days ago had heavy snow event down here - that's more closely what was mocked, for a few reasons...all of which actually verified. By the way, the CFS and Euro are doing it again ... we'll perform the same test.

To be 20 deg over climo at 4 days ... Considering that's weighted toward climatology heavier out in time, that's possibly saying something. however - I'm still not very trusting of that outlook with a front being situated near by at this time of year. So we'll see -

What is interesting about the WAIS science is the aspect of momentum in the system. It is theorized that the faltering structural integrity continues for some time ... even if/when returning to the previous colder state of the ambient hemisphere. The reasoning behind: these so-called trigger points and threshold ... when they are crossed they're not linearly responsive in nature. They are problematically very difficult to actually reverse once that happens. Speaking very broad brushed conceptual, it is as though they fight against the change until the forcing becomes overwhelming ...then, "accept" the change all at once - the new paradigm than needs an equal opposing momentum to get the system in question to accept going back. At which point it is not really about regressing back to a prior state - we have to look at the return, not as a return, but as a whole new paradigm. It's a peculiar arithmetic at these very large systemic/planetary scales.

Btw ...I had a thought this morning. With this AI invasion into the et al technology of weather/environmental modeling, we may not have as much of the annoyance in waiting the extra hour for dissemination ? The delay may get offset. I'm wondering - It's probably just a matter of time before the American side adopts something similar to the ECMWF's goal.

Yeah ... I'd pump the breaks on warmth expectations N of NYC if you're willing to be objective/realistic. Based upon available guidance/indicators there-of-all, too dicey. You're not ever, in mid March, going to get certitude for warmth when there is a west to east oriented polar boundary aligned from roughly ORD to ALB to PWM. That's cutting things really, really close during a seasonal time of year where cold still tends to win those battles. Lord knows I want it. The preceding statement has nothing to do with my personal druthers on this week. But ... I don't tend to allow that sort of thing effect my judgement. If the ridge burgeons more and the modeling trend pushes said boundary another 200 clicks N, that'd help.

My "theory" on why that may be favored is two-fold. One ... simply put, the models bias amplitude wrt just about any/all facets out in time. Doesn't matter whether it's temp extremes (either direction), or the specter/size and amplitude of some cyclone, ...or just the governing synoptics that tote along these potentials itself, whatever you see on a D8 chart, it'll be some 5 ... 40% less than it's original specter when it's inside of 3 days. I don't know why that is so... It may just be an unavoidable artifact/emergent property of the technology. Two ... in mid March, seasonal forcing adds to that. The sun pulverizing air masses now on either side of the boundaries, and then mixing that ...changes the thermodynamic state of the hemisphere. Not sure why this is, but the models also for some reason can't handle this, either. They seem to take whatever thermal state of the hemisphere is in place per a particular initialization, and then as they process out in time ... what we are observing is their 'cleansing' the warmth out of the run - it's like they don't have physics in them for seasonal forcing ( a little tongue in cheek here). Whatever the cause... These two aspects make the amplitude and those ECM AI type solutions kind of in a boxing match with wisdom.

Pretty high likelihood that all you are seeing isnt all that uncommon in any given Euro run …if you were allowed to see it beyond 240 hrs.