Typhoon Tip

Kevin's over top warm blast is showing up on some of these recent GFS runs around June 1. This 12z version has a continental warm front demarcating a torpedo heat tube coming from the WNW ... probably 90 considering the sun up thickness is 567, and 572 by late afternoon behind this boundary... transporting 850s to 16+C in an easily tall mixing layer

It's CNN, so taken with caution ... but interesting nonetheless https://www.cnn.com/2025/05/20/climate/ice-sheets-sea-level-rise forward, the journal Communications Earth & Environment. Phys.org has a version too https://phys.org/news/2025-05-15c-paris-climate-agreement-high.html

I think it possible if not likely that the positive feed-backs a real and ubiquitous fusion future brings for humanity, are not being fully visualized. Example, the CO2 sequestering is obviously physically possible. But the problem isn't in the mathematics, it's in the engineering: 'How to do so by not requiring equal or more energy?' Point for discussion ... it takes a lot of energy to crack apart the CO2 molecule. If you're needing so much energy, particularly when the energy is coming from carbon combustion sources to do so ... you are not effectively lowering anything. We know all this ... The solution up at the Orca facility in Iceland was to tap the region's effectively limitless geothermal energy source. How that is a gimmick - or why... - is actually not really an engineering 'know-how' related matter. I'll have to read exactly why they are on the wrong side of the results. Gimmick doesn't add up for me, though, because there's no way that the secretive or dishonest mechanism for perpetuating some other cause ( in this case preserving combustion of carbon) would ever conceivable work or remain clandestine form people frankly noticing that - that seems too childish to believe. ...Although as afterthought, shit ...we put one of Satan's colon polyps in the white house so anything's possible... Back on fusion, it's an easy case to make that a fusion would be more than equal to that challenge. The range estimates vary some based upon source ( MIT ...vs "AI" ...vs - ) but as many as 5 to 8 orders of magnitude more power is accessible over any present conventional means. That's between 10, and some estimates as high 100 million times more. The expression, "an embarrassment of riches" leaps to mind. So... with essentially 0 on the negative side of the net equation, this problem of CO2 above the background correction capacity of the planetary systems becomes no problem at all. The remaining challenges, beyond the sociological assholeness of our species, are rendered to a trivial endeavor. But, this kind of "Kardashev 1" level control at a planetary scale would really mean fixing, or having the ability to fix the problem, fast - precisely what is needed. Any limitations beyond that would be sociological - different discussion. It wouldn't have to take centuries to correct the anthropomorphic CO2, back to state prior to the Industrial Revolution. ... Even if CO2 were suddenly halted, (not remotely realistic), a natural extinction rate of CO2 is too slow to stop the other usage of the term extinction; and toppling indirectly linked ecological systems exposes thresholds in multitudes - true dystopia is realized. The general biology science ambit argues that it's already beginning...etc. It's a snow ball just starting to roll down hill. Fusion would create a favorable synergy space for innovation in general - that's an intuitive no-brainer. However the truly transformative extent of that is likely hard to visualize in terms of discrete applications. If, and most like when, quantum computing is brought on-line, power and intellect assist in both solution gathering and engineering applications ... staggering. Huge, huge steps in the department of, "innovation got humanity into this crisis; innovation is required to save us"

https://phys.org/news/2025-05-north-central-china.html

Here we go again ... https://phys.org/news/2025-05-north-central-china.html this has been going on for 20 years where eastern, mid -latitude North America, yeah ...we're warming ( mainly in the low temperatures ) in this region like everywhere else, but we are routinely the coldest (also) relative to everywhere else. Australia also had a summer that apparently 'could not end' according to press down there. Haven't heard from Europe - but the various climate monitoring sources are still pimping the global aspect. April was #2 - I think...

yeah this week's a lost cause through Saturday. might see some improvement on that day but the more appreciable change comes in Sunday like others have noted. we've actually fared pretty well so far this spring at not getting into a cold-stalled scenario in the larger synoptic behaviors. most of the schlitz we've encountered has been progressive and carried on out of here in a day or maybe two. but this is more of a blocking scenario across mid and eastern Canada. I guess we're kinda "due" considering our climate in the spring. the NAO is trying to rise moving forward this week ... but there's some sort of vestigial non-linear aspect lingering, where the circulation in general still "behaves" like a train wreck- either way, we've lost the progression so things are slowed down.

https://phys.org/news/2015-02-evidence-link-wavy-jet-stream.html

i almost wonder if summers will continue to dim over eastern n/a ... and winters will continue to warm ...until there is no seasonal change.

It's a matter of 'relative magnitude' You'd have to look at just the min departures from norm. then look at just the max departures from norm. Which ever has the greatest SD wins ... In this case we already know. The lows, particularly spanning the last couple of decades as Brian mentioned, have been increasing more so than the highs. He cites clouds and precip and I can't argue that. Ultimately, high temp is a response to solar diurnal flux so... if that flux is essentially the same - which it is ... - that leads to Terrain factorization as the modulating force. It's not voodoo. ha it's probably clouds but ...I'd just maybe add to that, increased aerosol pollution and the fact that we have a whole continent upstream delivering both industrial and bio generated farts to the New England rectum upon exiting so we may have additional part per in that discussion - just supposition...

Yeah not sure how it breaks down by hours … it is what it is. It’s rue tho that lows owning the ballast of above average weight. It’s been going on for a long while at a regional/climate scale

According to NWS ( https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=box ) the 4 majors are all running +4 to +5 ( decimals notwithstanding...) on the month. I was just looking at the MEX for next week at BDL-FIT-ASH and around that arc, the machine numbers are -10 to -13 for couple few days later this week. Probably going to correct some of the positive anomaly down. Funny though ... doesn't seem at all that positive to begin with. interesting. I think - for me anyway ... - might be susceptible to "model-based conditioning" It's like we're in a below normal pattern, but getting above normal scalar temperatures for it. But I'm remembering all the annoying model run after run after run... unrelenting winter look as June is coming over the f'in horizon. I wonder if this going to be below normal above below summer too

I read a paper about this ... This is the cold meander phenomenon that's tied to CC - they manifest ( or can...) as these unusual late and early shoulder season cold excursions, even capable of snowing in Octobers and Mays. We've known - or suspected - this frequency was increasing and have discussed it in here many times. Here we are. This is one of them. We're no where near snow at lower elevations this particular rendition, but in principle, the pattern is represented.

This is a nasty -NAO mass loading day out there... If one is a warm enthusiast, you're specifically being targeted for ..uh, indignity. Lol The index is only modestly negative at this time, but it's still descending. Having that 'almost' stalled piece of shit 998 mb low over the outer GOM, and a veritable Montreal Express conveyor gusting to 33 mph under cold air strata intervals is spot on. And it is one helluva way to run a late spring in a global warming holocaust, I'll tell ya -

Imho to a higher tolerance this entire hemisphere/continental, ongoing pattern, is still quite structurally analogous to any in a day out of a January ... Just think of it as being 30 or 40 dm higher in heights and thickness. It is as though the pattern is absorbing the seasonal solar flux/change ... but it, in itself, is still very winter like and not being forced to change due to that input - some how. That's what's been peculiar about this spring so far; the winter pattern isn't breaking down - same structure at a higher height registry. We're still getting above normal temperature days, too. And the "cold" ones are also doing that thing where they are cold more so relative to acclimation than they are cold relative to climatology, as well. This latter idiosyncrasy pretty much defined our temperature departure behavior during the last 9 months - here we are in May still doing that interpretive dance. All these idiosyncrasies are unusual. But they are unusual aspects that don't cause inconvenience enough for anyone to take notice. interesting. Another imo, but attribution is f*ing everything up like this... more often than not, it's sort of 'hidden' beneath the radar of everyday experience. But it's always there... lurking ... in wait to send Hethrow to 109 F, or fire off another 30 'Cane season ... or green up the Sahara (which is happening btw - ). There's a tendency - I suspect - for people to think that the eye-pop events are attributable and then it stops there. But that's really an observation-inconvenience bias making that judgement. Just a Monday morning QB thought -

Not a bad Euro run all things considered ... and considering what that looked like in the guidance just a short few days ago. The rather anachronistic Nor'easter is now timed earlier. This has been trended so not very new... but nice to see the continuity. Appears to be evacuated out of the region by late Friday... Saturday is manageable cool pool towers and instability shower dappled about the country side. But a decent day overall. Sun/Mon are dry NW d-slope flow days. At this time of year that's a decent look. I'm sure it mangle into some means to f-it all up but just as it looks for now.

we've actually only verified one mid 40s Labradorian giz pattern like that, and I've seen something like 7 or 8 of them modeled at this range. I'm guessin' these have a chance of normalizing based on that track record. MDW has been improving in guidance for two days worth of runs... I realize it's about personal druthers but ... I couldn't give a ratz ass if it funks out Wed and Thur if the weekends in tact.

I'm liking the subtle yet coherent trends toward a progressive look over the days leading and throughout the Mem Day weekend... This is not only more consistent with the circulation manifold of Earth for the past 15 years ( ), it also has the upshot of not inundating - or being as likely to ... - the entire holiday weekend. In fact, the 0 and 6z GFS runs are even done with it all by the time Saturday rolls around, having brought it all through by the preceding Thur/Fri... So progressive in fact that it brings a fropa from an entirely different Pacific wave propagation by Sunday. Euro's still trying to scheme a way to ruin the whole thing but even it's stressed in that solution. LOL

Tomorrow may actually be the first day that qualifies as uncomfortably warm and human. new NAM has low 80s with quite high DPs

and if it works...maybe they'll create one for the Mecca/Hajj pilgrimage next ... The last one ended up with 200+ deaths and some thousand(s) of casualties directly related to heat.

you may be in such an exceptional minority ... that you may actually be the only person in this social media-space that actually thinks that. but even so, it's not "womp womp" when it's so vastly less than the previous run LOL

You should instead highlight the fact that it was weaker overall and not nearly as implicating as the prior run

Right .. simply put... climate is an addition of all events/ the number of events. That's it. But if one understands what that means in practical terms, it means that the extent of extreme is thus hidden. That is why the statistical Standard Deviation is important - you observe all departures from normal, add them, and divide by the number of those occurrences. We call that one standard deviation abnormality" so... if a modeled and/or specific event is say doubling that number, that is a 2 STD event... This goes on... such that a 3, 4 ...5, n, get exceedingly more rare. When we talk about a "synergistic" synoptic heat event - LibertyBell, I miss guided you... this is what I was referring to before; I shouldn't have crossed that up with the 'heat burst' phenomenon you find in the AMS - these are typically more than 1 STD. But they don't have to be... That's the thing - attribution is always lurking. That's why I suspect a better metric is in the d(frequency)

I guess the upshot of this particular miasma smearing over the ma and ne regions this morning is that it's based upon on S flow. So it's not cold. It's actually relatively balmy outside... here anyway. I get it that y'all gettin' bombed down in RI and SE Ma this morning with training heavy rain...but having DPs 55-60 is a different more tolerably type of annoyance than having dps be 38 to 42 in said rain. - some of this may also normalize/improve as the sun starts modulating the sounding .. we'll see. The models seemed to have busted on the amount of measurable that has taken place over E/SE zones...?

I reworded some of that to make the point clearer. The impact of these is like everything in nature ... meaningful along a spectrum. If the impact slips below what I called an "affective curve" (how meaningful it is perceived to be is unfortunately limited almost entirely by it's affect on us) we risk missing its inclusion in ongoing attribution science - which I believe is not a good thing. I don't argue that 96/70 may be a problem for those lacking acclimation. Unfortunately ... the reality is that it doesn't mean an CC-attributable event did not take place. What it all boils down to is that there is a difference between a hot spell, vs one of these synergistic heat bombs going off. These latter event types are a phenomenon that ... probably always have been in history, but are increasing in frequency. Moreover, at a more sophisticated/discrete study, they likely have value in understanding why/how CC will become an increasing threat. For example, they are not [likely] limited in spatial scale. There is the Pacific NW event in 2021. There is France -scaled event in the early 2000s. There is the 'micro' event that is just up there in that region of the NP, now.... Ranging to the whole world in 2023 These are all variable in their affecting ... So, you see what's going on there ( rhetorical ); these synergistic heat wave -related variability, in both size and actual thermal magnitude, make them very dangerous.

increasingly more suggestive of 'synergistic heat burst' It's probably not really headline-worthy enough, because we're not talking heat that injures. However, the kind of stark contrast against background climatology (standard deviation), as well... far exceeding the leading indicators for the actual event, appear to qualify this. The impact does not necessarily - or should not ... - qualify them; the phenomenon clearly can be numerically definable. I feel it is an important distinction because 'attribution' is probably more commonly taking place than the observation frequency, because they simply are below the "affective curve" and thus may not be readily definable/noticed.