Typhoon Tip

so there ...

yeah i was pretty sure it was that late june one just curious. actually got to wondering how often it is to get 1k high orh to do that just in general - as in return rate.

Orh back to back days 90 or better. last time that happen ?

This is basically what it’ll be doing here tomorrow night Reflectivity

lot of 96 and 97 around again this afternoon. Won't make 100 but damn this is still hot and are still Big Heat numbers

Yeah that consensus is more of a strata layout deal N of the Pike from what I'm seeing and knowing how these modeled synoptic scenarios tend to go. There's likely to be some bumpy clumps on the satellite training along southern zones for a time, but the whole axis is settling SE. Seems Friday may correct toward breaking cloud in the afternoon, because the subtle but crucial small tendency to flatten the whole thing means that it is also slightly accelerating almost unnoticed as well. Saturday may be up there among the best quality days this summer's had to offer -

late to the party today but it may also be a shifted to far south for that, too

MHT 100R BOS 99R PVD 97R CON 97R BDL 96TR

Oh yeah, those east west running roads down here like Route 2 or the Pike and Route 9 in Framingham they absolutely broil even at 70 mph they’re sometimes 5 abv NWS

I'm a little leery of the cooler August ideas ... I see the cool-down as being typically oversold by longer range models. Something more seasonal/average, then fading into Act III .... then we "break back" Friday rain not included - It's just my personal sense of where this is going. Those pesky non-linear aspects ( trend and trend' ) keep trying to lower heights in the Pac NW as kind of rest state and every time we deflate the eastern ridge, that tends to force it back. So right now the linear structures happen to look autumnal but I'd like to wait that out and see

mine was flopping 101 ... 100

yesterday's mid 90s followed by a 95-100 today, and probably at least low 90s tomorrow ... this is a pretty damn potent heat wave. 2nd place on the season.

actually the GFS nailed this from 2 or 3 days ago. I brought it up/posted that the model was roasting on one of those runs - but i haven't paid attention since.

KEWR 100

KFIT 99

KBOS might have touched 99

You're gonna need to wait a lot longer

there it is! 90 at ORH. it's real now ha

Big Heat verifies at FIT ...and at local sites around Ayer. 97 and mean of 96 respectively as of 1:20

it's fake until ORH ping's 90 heh

Mm the signal performed ... it just didn't extend as far as it could have, given those indicators as they appeared at the beginning of the month. There's multiple sources available on the web for cumulative means, but this blw is from the PRISM group/Oregon State U. It shows through the 28th where the anomalies, relative to normal climatology, have amassed over the last 4 weeks. This is impressive enough ... given this is a month's worth of aggregated data. There were probably individual days per the course that were greater, as there were days lower than this mean anomaly. It's going to be tough to put up mean anomalies that extend much above +5 in July, compared to say ...March, because July is a perennial climate ceiling in the temperature curve. It is more constrained by broader systemic limitations at the higher side.

Should be put on the mileXmile sized headstone over humanity's grave ... along with all the other dark ironies that fucking made it happen

Looked to me like the whole blend bumped S a little bit. That may not be caused by repositioning the track of that frontal mess, per se. It could also be an artifact of that amplitude flattening - a problem we've discussed ad nauseam in the past, where the models sometimes have trouble maintaining mid/ext outlook amplitude when relaying into short ranges. Hard to tell precisely, as this scenario with rain/amts on Thur/Fri looks pretty sensitive to very subtle physical perturbation, anyway, so - I just see the 00z UKMET type solution as not impossible at least in principle. It may be overdoing that suppression some sure.

you know... nother aspect occurs to me. if that Friday boundary ends up much farther N it's liable to pop up to an ALB - D.E.M. synoptic ordeal. that changes the landscape of things ... It'd introduce a bit of a Bahama Blue circulation mode

Not in this case. sorry - I'm not talking about some kind of fascist opinion suppressing here. Everyone has the right to think, feel, believe whatever they want. The presumption that everyone is entitled to an opinion as actually being heard? That is entirely false. Most particularly when the post the failure having been iteratively and ad nauseam explained! Being heard, much more so, seriously considered - and being worthy of time expense - is constrained by objective reality and facts - merely because there are those that don't like, or don't understand the weight of the latter ...there is no intrinsic logic or right therein to have their opinions matter. Brian Cox, renowned physicist/philosopher roundly put it eloquently: " The correct statement of individual rights is that everyone has the right to an opinion, but crucially, that opinion can be roundly ignored and even made fun of, particularly if it is demonstratively nonsense. " he's damned right!