Typhoon Tip

Amen. altho ... i've been wondering if we are somewhat gas lit by media's aggrandizing. Maybe when stuff is happening everywhere in the world, as though we are being left out ... but in reality, there's an oversell of disaster/dystopian drama. LOL. Then I look at some disheartening imagery and cinemas of walls of fire ... or 48" of snow in 12 hours ... or 101 F March heat waves in lower Eurasia ... or whatever and nah. I do think there is something to it where we are seeing a mollified profile history, probably because of limitations that are geologically built in. Like, heat ... we can get damn hot. But only damn hot. We can't get the 109 like it was recently at Hetahrow AP in London, or the 120 like it was in lower B.C. Canada, Washington and Oregon like it was in 2021. We just really can't geophysically generate those temperatures. Maybe some crazy year we'll get the 103 in frequency... We can make headlines where say... 102 occurs at Logan 13 times the same summer. if that would ever happen that's our "109" ? something like that. Or take wind... being east of the elevations of 2K, the elevation drops out, so air density rises as you head east of roughly western CT to Manchester NH to Fryeburg ME type of axis... That alone may be why all our "omg we're all gonna die" wind forecasts end up manageable. It's no wonder why when we do get a wind explosion, they are over the SE coastal plain, in fall, when the near by SSTs are warm and this hyper mixes momentum from llv jet fields more readily down to the surface there. Then there's convection. We've had our 1953's and 2010 tors... but those are fleetingly rare. Seattle Washington probably doesn't want to hear our complaints when it comes to convection, but regionally relativity aside ... we all know where we stand when it comes to baseball hail and regular wall cloud filmography. Also, limited by geomorphology and proximity to colder ocean in the summer. There's also a non-linear wave function built in where convection that has any chance in the first place, will "dive" S early as part of the geo limitation, and this effectively robs us... It's a complicating model of reasons to go less. So the return rate on big deal scenarios isn't worth the wait. Really, our profile is best painted through big bomb nor'easters. That's been our bread and butter since the dawn of awareness. Unfortunately, part of the awareness, very recently in geological time, is an unsettling emergent reality of lessening bread and butter ... We definitely feel hungry. This part of the world is probably circumstantially going to be a kind of protected enclave while the rage of climate change continues to deny us our way to glory while incinerating the rest of the world with giant events. Invest in realestate I guess, because the climate refugees are going to start coming in waves. haha

spring warm sector types often fail to produce along the trailing b-clinic zone/cold frontal aspect because they are theta-e challenged. It's not unusual for warm air masses, particularly prior to continental green-up, to be low DP transport. In 1998, March 29, 30 and 31, we made 89, 91, 90 up at the UML weather lab in the heart of Merrimack Valley, Lowell. But the DPs was like 30 F. The models are trying though. The Euro's RH field shows a 925 mb plume of >70% over the NJ/Try State state region at 18z Saturday, which is probably some SE Coastal/Atl moisture being entrained and a nose of theta-e modeled up the coast. Whether that happens in reality, we'll see. Anyway, if you took this synoptic and transported it to early June, you'd probably get a better convective production and heavier rains associated with that coherent c-front advancing toward the coast. Also, keep in mind, the model layout for QPF will also look 'sharp' like that in regimes were the QPF is convectively driven, anyway. It's not the same as strataform rain production, with swaths of mulit-inch you might see on on the N slope of a stationary boundary and/or coastal type systems..

Hope everyone's enjoying your cold air today ...

p.s. ... I hope we actually do erode out by 12z on Saturday, for the record. haha

Not so sure we are going to just blossom out of this sneaky cold under cut in time for such a balmy Saturday. Looking at the behavior of the sfc PP in the model blended cinema ...it's trying really hard to dam. That may mean in reality it's even more so in the tougher to resolve BL at the bottom. Could be calm or even a light ENE drift underneath these kind of clouds as the warm surge at larger synoptic scales is running over top .. Friday is definitely not in time, but it may take more of Saturday for a quasi warm front to liberate us.

https://phys.org/news/2025-03-nasa-chief-scientist-trump.html

yeah I thought that was fittingly comical too - Neither that nor the warmth in the first place are very likely to verify exactly like that from a cozy close modeling range of 370 hours anyway ... but, for how little it is worth, the next two days are like this ...

Until DOGE finds out ...

yep, went from under yesterday by hour, to over yesterday by hour. 60 It'll make tomorrow's polar inches feel so great

In the context relating 'settled' to a global perspective of CC, vs the detailing sciences ongoing: The former is settled, and is fundamentally true. The latter is not. That's all he has to say. Unfortunately, ... the tenor of the op ed casts doubt over the total principle by confusing a key difference - yes, even though he writes words to the affect of not denying. It has to be spelled out cleaner to the general hoi polloi. Whether he intends to or not, it erodes confidence in a already, nearly insurmountable task of getting total society to believe there is a problem, one that is significant enough to be considered an existential threat at a species level - there's a long way to go in a situation that has a shorter distance to the cliff than most are even aware. We can observe an unprecedented jump in an entire planetary system by a whole degree ( 2023) - that occurrence is certainly fantastic enough in itself (if perhaps a bit terrifying...), but the under-acknowledged warning is that we are incapable of seeing large ramifications before they happen ...What's the next jump going to be? Missed while we were arguing over semantics? digressing. "Settled" pertains to the principal of climate change. IT'S SETTLED. Specific linking human activity since the IR is all but unbearable to deny, given math and physics for f' sake. But there is a complex of cause and effects, with a lot of synergistic entanglement that really cannot be settled (for now) - but that's conflating an uncertainty realm of the discrete, with the governing principle which is concrete. Quibbling over details and decimals, as though the uncertainty in these subsidiary sciences unsettles CC is not right. In fact, those authoring peer reviewed papers, out and consorting among the ambit of research, all will tell you there are uncertainties but the purpose of telling everyone that CC isn't settled intellectually, is false.

what we really need is to have it be after the equinox sun intensity - too early to rely on ole sol when it's tepidly low in the sky until noon. yeah we're out of the solar min, but the transition is still on the weak end

calm and not mixing ... maybe there's like an 11:45 am temp bounce to catch up the lower els.

We're presently 6 degrees behind yesterday and today is supposed to be warmer.

39 up at ORH and 24 down here in the Nashoba Valley ... Superb radiational cooling in calm wind

You're old enough to remember the days when clock reset was the first Sunday in April, and the 2nd Sunday in October. I like the sun not setting in the middle of the afternoon in October ... by November it doesn't matter because the weather is typically shitty to be outside anyway by then, so part of me thinks it should wait until the solar min begins on November 8th- the way it was changed to back in 2002 I think it was. On the flip side, I like having the sun later in the day in the spring - by the time April rolls around it's half way to summer so we're spending too much time with dark while awake if we wait that late to do it. But for others they need more daylight in the morning so waiting until April is better for them; moving ahead an hour doesn't matter by then as much. So, from a purely selfish perspective I wish they'd just make like this, all the time. But I realize that wouldn't be very good for the rest of society. When I was a child in western lower Michigan, the sun set on June 21 at like 9:40 pm. They are the very western end of the time zone, absolutely maxing out to the last minute. 2 hr drive west and you get two 9'0clocks. Anyway, in the winter, with standard time, the sun rises at like 8 in the morning... so if they left it like this, it would be 9 am sun rise ... Can you imagine that? I guess at the end of the day there's no way to appease everyone. The only way to do it is to move the work day standard with the clock. Such that it's 10 am in the winter, and 8 or so in the summer... I dunno. Maybe humanity needs to relo to a new planet with 36 hour days and 6 hour nights. haha

makes my point really ... Last of the -EPOness waned out last week, so onward we got this recent final cold departure and now we're out. Basically, we are becoming more and more reliant on direct cold loading because otherwise our "polar air mass rot rate" is a shorter recovery window, which is definitely going to be the case in March anyway. Again, the catch-22 there is that if there is a cold direct source, the pattern is compressed ...which limits storm production. Attribution giving us more inches than snow ...

Something tells me Ineedsnow would say that if it were July 4th weekend with another of those 100 year 40 F coastals like 2020

60 here ... warmest day time temp for this location since... I dunno November maybe - MAV did better than MET

The initialization will contain the present information. Sure. Time is the variable there... out in time, the physics may have some error where is slowing field variable timings, perhaps an emergent property; a consequence of less than very finite scaled/resolution in the interactivity. Supposition on that cause ... and, they are not slow (or as much) per se in the first 72 to 96 hrs ... it's endemic to the longer range. Curvature in the flow tends to end up less curved, in lieu of 'stretching' in the west to east direction, along with quickening pace of both base-line geostrophic velocities, and the wave propagation speeds. One has to consider all this in a nuanced way. Tendency gets embedded in the day-to-day, and the problem with tendency is that there may or may not be a very coherent manifesting of whatever it is you're looking for at any given point in time/interval on the model illustrations. But given time ... the tendency will reveal more so in aggregate if subtle corrections. Then at other times, it just straight is obvious. This recent thing with the Mar 9/10 blizzard the GFS had... very good example of all this really.

Oh ..I'm all but convinced I know what/where the origination of the problem is: perception yet again ... but this is case it is the "miss"guidance of guidance that is causing it. I would consider speeding up as a d(modulation) as causal. The models "see" something in the physical temporal horizon ( D10 say ..or even out around 13), *HOWEVER* they are seeing a timing of interacting massfields that is being assessed slower than it really will be when said time frame arrives into nearer terms. Consequence of that too-slow error, they necessarily speed up ... the big event goes with it or gets changed..etc. This has been a leitmotif actually going back many winters. I've been opining this observations or the like going back ... 2008 even. It's just getting more egregious in recency. The last 5 years in particular, the hemisphere is setting air-land speed records for intercontinental flights on W--> E trajectories, while the models are trying to sell slow moving bombs... The latter will likely not survive the speeding up the models will have to do. Even if it's only speeding up a little... ? some sort of acceleration is required the majority of eval periods, and these events get negatively interfered by it.

heh, actually 54 at FIT now... maybe this 55 is legit.

Well, it's the peril of the perception crisis that came about during this socio-technological experiment of recent Humanity. Just like everything else that is "real" in this age of alternates and miss-information, they are subsuming objective truth. Now ... every season has a duality. Jesus, I feel like Morpheus speaking to Neo in the Matrix, there is the real, vs the fantasies and paragons created by media. And by " media" we mean everything that is audience oriented. Not just FOX, CNN ...ABC and NBC...or whatever. All media and these, combined. The two seasons happen concurrently ... there is winter, and the duality with a perception of winter. Oh, once in a blue moon they may come to a nexus and share a sense of rightfulness. But that requires a 944 mb stalled 60" mortality blizzard parked on the eastern tip of Long Island. Because this latter aspect happens 'so often' most of the time, the illusory winter seems to be preferential. haha Seriously, there is a troubling problem with information at this latter end of the Information Era of Humanity - the current state distinction. Weather access/modeling and cinema just being available to any yahoo without real or proven, or sustaining rank ... you're not going to get sensibility. 20-30" failures are more common. Meanwhile, no officiated source ( we hope ...) that is of a proven rank and sophistication ever said anything like that. It's not just media - as machinery... It's a humanity crisis of information.