Typhoon Tip

Could be one helluva a lower Plains look toward mid month, too

Not to come off condescending or anything but that basal flow rate stuff has been known ...really going back to the early 2,000s. In fact, - check this - but there's a field anecdote out there about a day in the times out on the ice sheet with scientists stationed there. An encampment from the U.S., Sweden and Russia. We're sure they're not partial to political lines and geodesy out there amid that expanse; they're probably hooch chums... anyway, on this day there was a 3.change seismic event recorded. It turned out after corroboration between those surrounding stations, and matching with GPS of the times, ...the stations and their occupants, en masse, bodily up and moved some distance toward the NW. It was the actual ice cap in their immediate vicinity ... displacing all at once. The distance doesn't have to be terribly large, mind us... we're talking about a million trillion tonnes of ice or whatever incomprehensibly large amount it was... The thought of a mile high ice column sliding along for any distance though - This is probably an urban legend? Sure sounds like great opening salvo to a Sci Fi movie if it is fiction. But since it was a part of the field water cooler muse of the day ... the specter has been known to be plausible for some time - I came by this back in 2003 I want to say.

That's true anyway... Whether they manifest or not? fair enough, that can't really be ascertained. But I'm not sure those should limit you to "not seeing" a pathway toward an anomalous warm period - which by the way, I'm not talking about the whole spring. This was the mid March stuff... Anyway, some years have big warmth, early - so yeah ...sometimes the BS can be suppressed.

tongue in cheek aside... Yeah, at least through the first week or so, March may do what march does.

Not sure what you are looking at when you say, "I don't see" but compendium of classical indicators are warmer than your characterization. If those indicators were nominal, ...no problem. But that is not the case. They are pointed up. Otherwise, why are there indicators at all if one is not going to use them? But beyond that... they are useful and that's been demonstrated enough in the past to be empirical and objective. Is it fair to say they are not always correct? sure - But, so long as we are staring at a wash of +2SD AO(NAO), +2SD EPO, whilst -2SD PNA from ~ the 10th thru the 18th, ... perturbations along the way not withstanding, and not appearing disruptive, it becomes unclear how someone might come to the conclusion that they don't see how - LOL good luck. I don't wish to gaslight anyone's perceptions - it's just that these indicators ... I'm not making this shit up. There's that,... plus the intangibles - like the recent decadal trends for spring warm burst synoptic events. Or the longer term indicator of La Nina's sometimes ( but not always...) setting up springs that are decidedly above normal. Or the CC background elephant taking big shits in the room at all times, smelling like we go above average anyway ... I actually "see" it the other way. It'll be interesting to see which way it goes.

pretty good naper going on out there. 52 with intense sun through purity blue. You can tell it's sub- March sun but feels quite warm only modestly less. The breeze is still just enough to offset the affect of fake warm bubble inside of a cool air, but I'd still give it a 7/10. The wind needs to be calm in moments to really get that vibe.

And it may be heading out the door on future run/means. we'll see... Thing is ... uuuusually, a larger hemispheric systemic change, like going from the cold inertia ( to use that phrase again ) into a completely new paradigm ( that happens to be warmer no less - ) take longer and the guidance will often enough bias on the short side of when that really happens. In this case? it seems a speed up is happening. It may be the solar irradiance/flux increasing ...not sure, but something is trying to speed this up. I noticed the telecon spread has -PNA now on the 9th...where prior it was -d(PNA)... so the -PNA scaffolding, when the NAO is statically positive...not sure how that really numerically supports the 9th. That 5-7th transit through the Lakes,... my guess is hoping that corrects E, because that one still has ( though slipping) numerical support.

Apples and oranges comparison really .. 2012 preceding February was almost as absurdly warm - not in scalar value but relative to climate. I can recall cargo shorts and just light sweat shirt sometimes tied off around the waste on Saturday mornings, every weekend that February playing disk golf. The pattern lead was highly conducive; just a little more synoptic nudge was both easy to get there, and probably likely given the inertia in the total system... This? different scenario entirely. We are going from a cold inertial state, trying to correct toward a new paradigm that removes that inertia. From a modeling perspective, there is 0 ( Z-E-R-O) logical usefulness in attempting to compare the settings of either year. We may very well flip to some sort of obscenely warm scenario... we might. But it would be coming from apples, not oranges. Or, we may end up with some lesser variation too...etc. I think for now, the better take away is that spring is coherently and undeniably in the present indicator outlooks. Just be aware that there is a higher ceiling also a part of all that.

sometimes I think planet earth created SNE just for the purpose of being an abandoned, cold misery cesspool -

Big time Labradorian anus pointed at us. Take that 00z Euro. It's not likely to verify as is, no, but just to use that to make the example. In a situation like that the warmth in SNE is very precarious. If that mid level orientation rotates even 5 deg in the clockwise over Ontario, that boundary will collapse SE down the coastal plain clear to NE Va. It'll be 76 F to 40F across eastern PA we'll be so far inside the rectum that it's not even close. Meanwhile, from orbit the pattern looks like we're breaking warm weather records to add to the insult

Anyway, telecon insists a significant change occurs ... the timing is the 10th and has been for like 10 days since this signal was very outer horizon, and is now 12 days... Still time to modulate, but, in that time the signal has only grown. The operational runs ending up around 300+ hours with that ridge in the SE and the polar boundary displaced west... warmer hydrostats flooding up to at least Boston's latitude might be an early detection from those sources, but it really is way too early to sure there. This all, so far, only useful to warm weather enthusiasts like me, who like to monitor the seasonal transition, for now.

Anyone with co-dependent "winter on models" issues, seem strangely impervious to that learning.. The dissertation quality postings regarding the flip over the last week? LOL crickets

the d(pna) is negative by the 9th... keep that in mind. If that delta is taking place thru the period, the correction will start neg interference as that time gets closer - recipe for damping a signal.

Well ... that can be true in the sense of 'contributory' but that's one component in a giant of machinery of forcing-sources. I guess I wasn't part of that conversation What you just said and how you said it, doesn't sound preclusive tho

Who ever made that proclamation in the first place. wtf does the West Pac do that directly does anything 12,000 mi away? that demonstrates an inherent lack of understanding if that was the rationale. Definitely high marks for creative thinking though -

typical spring event layout

ha... wasn't actually seeing that 12z gfs when wrote that but yeah I guess. it's possible

yeah maybe the 5th -9th if we wanted to hone into a time span. There's an interesting ( sort of ..) look there with a strong N branch moving by N, while there is a subtle split toting along a S stream wave...It's all like the last of the +PNA as it it finally soon collapses. Could be a seasonal exit event so to speak. last hurrah. Getting a 33" April 97 redux of course but that's a different thing .haha

Just reviewed the teleconnector spread from overnight. The numbers went next level for mid month. There's need to establish continuity ... barring that failure, the short version is that the total spread supports a very warm period. It isn't too absurd to suggest something more extraordinary could emerge in that ~ 15th to 20th period. Note, warmth is the most fragile of all metrics in guidance at extended leads. That is an understatement in March. It is also 2 weeks+ away ... so this is purely for early monitoring. Longer version, teleconnector convergence via multiple mass-field/domain sources. There is an overlap in space and time, when also considering the functional lags that exist in the correlating source/regions. Example, The EPO is very warm on it's own. The PNA is just warm. However, when you then combine those two, look for positive feedback amplitude. Meanwhile, the NAO, a metric I use more to assess the exit latitude/orientation of the westerlies across the eastern mid latitude continent, is lodged up at +2SD (~) in the week prior and sustains positive during these EPO(PNA) synergies. Thus, we're losing any way to stop a height expansion from occurring over the eastern continent, one that comes with an unusually high ceiling. These early spring heat bomb synoptic scenarios have been going off all over the planet, with higher frequency, for the last 20 years. They are different than run-o-the-mill balm you might get for a couple of days in melt and mud seasons. They take you to June, with sun shining type stuff. It's okay to try and recognize/study in attempt to see one coming. As an afterthought .. one of the concepts that haunts for me is how enabling I suspect this season's weirdly unrelenting -EPO and cold loaded continent may have guided perceptions. If/when removing that factor, there is implication baked in that the correction, both sensibly and in the objective results, would have surprisingly big potential. It's going to be interesting as we head deeper into March ... seeing how/if this manifests.

I might be willing to sell that 5th cutter... stand by on that oh wait - that actually looks clean ... nevermind

That's a whiplash. 24 hours to take the hydrostatic height from 516 dm to 546 ... and there's no stopping them from rising probably to 560 over the next 12. That's like going from 32 to 72 in 2 days.

startin to look that way

That April 2002 was … can’t believe I forgot that one but yeah. The preceding year was a La Niña ENSO phase. The heat was something but I remember the backdoor fronts (2 of them that month) were only back to 60 … not the typical 40 you’d associate with BDs at that time of year. Anyway … we’ll see

There is a time decay on that though. If they occur too late, the seasonal breakdown of the hemispheric eddy goes so far the circuitry's cut and the cycle won't complete - the correlations peeters out.

Not really ... not much for seasonal wx forecasting. Not my bag ... Ray or someone may have an idea. i guess i could say that La Nina have been known to throw out some ridic heat early. 1976 was a whopper. The VAX up at UML had ASOS records going back that far, and there was a heat wave in April that year that was like 92/93/96/94 ... during a month that seldom saw a high less than 75 - exceedingly rare for a strapped down Labradorian rape month like April... that's an extreme though. Since 2000, we've been getting weird warm spells early (Feb-Apr) that skew the real picture, because they occurred regardless of what ENSO this or that was taking place. i dunno.