Typhoon Tip

No shit. huh - I wondered about that, whether or not the eastern continental N/A were among the cooler regions of N/Hemi (relative to normal...) during these central weeks of winter. Without even seeing this - source/veracity notwithstanding ... - I had a strong hunch this would turn out true, base in no smaller part on the fact that the global means are still honkin' high. I figured it couldn't be like this very many other places - both couldn't be true. I wanna also say, this isn't the first time I've noticed this type of "picking on N/A" result since 1998. It's interesting... I think it's because the base-line perennial pattern features a western N/A "bulge" due to sorting out the westerlies flow; as it's forced to rise over the western cordillera it turns N creating a topographic ridge. It's subtle though, but when footing that under weather patterning, that gives a constructive feed-back ... Basically what I am getting at is that we are sort of situated favorably to claim one of the cool offset locations. Doesn't mean it will be that way every year, but some percentage of years in a set of 20 of them ... I bet we get 3 or 4 of them like this.

GEFs ens mean looks like about .5" with regions more and less by a couple tenths by mid day Sat.

Thicknesses are cold in this "warm" sector, though. If gets to 50 it's just adding to instability. I could see that wooshing in with a dark sky and light rain and then the wind gusts arrive and the light rain spends 20 seconds as moderate cat paws and then bloof! white out heavy snow gusts ... then dwindling as drier fluff as it ends. Temp crashing from 45 to 29 across 10 minutes of it all -

here ... some form or another of this is coming through here later on with that squall warning -

wow... so, we must still be under a warm frontal inversion up here... temp is rising fast. I just posted 32 but now 34 a moment or two later. It'll be interesting if/when said inversion passes off and the wind mixes down

temp jump from 25 to 32 here in the last half hour. Sun bursting through now. Satellite loop shows the cloud dispersion rather nicely. This is all sort of symbolic to an early summer convective day - symbolic. The ole morning warm front passage with overrunning activity, opens to improving skies and a temp jump... Then the eruption comes down the Mohawk Trail ... I wonder if some squalls might accompany the arctic front as it arrives. Light rain immediately flips to turbine gusts and white out wet snow ending in powder as the temp crashes from 42 to 28 in 5 minutes. Pure imagination there, as though the cold air equivalent of the June 4 severe day.

I guess look at that again that's just not doing anything. Man, this thing is weak sauce -

Anywho back on track re Feb 1 the 12z NAM is like 20 mi S of the current blended rain boning for rt 2 up in N Ma. The model wants to put them back in contention by a very narrow margin for snow. Actually, question ... I don't normally pay much attention to the ptype graphics. Is it normal for the mix type qpf regions to be blanked ?

Probably should move all this to the banter - too early in a month's coverage to derail a thread. Haha

I don't know if anyone would really like it? I am frankly a little insecure about it as it was a first go at novel writing - I feel almost more like 'lucky' the publishing house went with it. But I could also be ( admittedly ) imposturing self. One doesn't necessarily know these things. I guess here - it's a dry read at first, as it intermingles some character development with an expose on the "science fiction" created for the story. What's interesting ...as an aside, the sci fi has since actually been papered by Roger Penrose et al. As though plausibly more than mere fiction being the implication there - ... quantum mechanics in the emergence of consciousness, only in "Dominion" ( a title I hate but the publishing house insisted - ) it is sort of discovered by accident. In terms of quality...the feed back I've actually received is varied. A pattern there...where those that hunger and lust for sci fi seem to love it. Those that just like reading? they offer advice that it's a compelling idea but needs more time in the mill in terms of prose itself - to which I would never argue that. I re-read some passages and wish at times it were still on the editing desk - anyway,

yeah...that's a continuation of the same joke - lighten up... both of you. Jesus

We've engaged in this debate a few times over the years ... There's definitely some angst in the duality of the dystopian thrill/d-drip addiction, fighting against the responsible morality in having to see/hear about orphanages losing power. Firstly, the draw is the awesome. Just as some people are moved by a Hail Mary touchdown. Some by an angelic aria. For others ... it's the specter of big weather. I have this dilemma to some degree. I find the specter of ice stenciling trees and power lines to be quite aesthetically pleasing at a superficial level. And yes, there is some thrill there, too. I have thought about that thrill factor, though - as it pertains to me. It is really more awed at the power of nature. I don't know what it is in other's in their want of the ice storm, but that's really what it is for me. Perhaps less about the crisis... Very short window of satisfaction there, however. Because that soon turns to regret when the background white noise of civil living is suddenly rendered to silence. If lucky enough this happens in the daylight hours; at least gray light limps through the windows. No one in this forum ( most likely ...) was raised without the programming and ultimately, entitled assumption of electricity. It really is taken for granted. And it's not just about the inconvenience - oh for a lot of folks...that'll be all it is, and a little reminder isn't a bad thing. But there's too many people whose survival is closer to hanging in the balance and having lost power, whether it is for a small business ... to personal health matter, once the angst turns existential. Mmm... it's a dereliction of moral intelligence to continue to gloat and want of the calamity of ice storms. It's an odd one. But you know... in reality, no weather extreme event is really absent of the above dilemma. I mean, one goes tornado chasing for a chance to stand there transfixed by the awesome power of God's finger. But while it is carving a canyon through a town in Tornado Alley - those pixels on the video? Gee, some of those could be 4-year olds. I've given all this a lot of thought and thankfully ...as I've grown older those higher cerebral responsibilities as a human being have begun to shade scenarios that cause destruction. I've been able to compartmentalize the awe at nature's machinery, while still sending remorse and dreams that it would ever be possible to bear witness to extremes, without the price tag being ultimate. Yeah, not very realistic. It's about at this time in the internal muse that my thoughts morph into the idiocy of humanity placing themselves in harm's way. And so the compartmentalization is awe in the specter of nature's wonders; anger and frustration at the "Pacific Palisades"

23 here... 36 down in Auburn on the S side of Worcester. It's like in early May, when it's 73 there and 50 here. Interesting to see this kind of set up more in winter proper - just sort of down the scale a ways.

Why would I have an issue with police? ...perhaps you are unclear on the concept of "Dude, I'm totally just fuggin with him" ?

In shocking finding ... scientist were staggered back when making the startling connection, one that's "never" been made, that the recent firestorm activity in southern California was interminably worsened by climate change... https://phys.org/news/2025-01-climate-conditions-fed-california-wildfires.html ( that's sarcasm above )

Dude, I'm totally fuggin with him .. hahaha Psychology my ass - I write as a hobby. I'm a published author. Despite other's perceptions of me in that regard, and/or their just loathing in general ... I have a facility for this. Look, as an art? one is missing a lot of colors on their pallet if they don't "get it" when it comes to the spooky perceptions of others. Try character writing in a novel - you'll understand what I mean... One really is not very good if one does not accuse COPs as having some form or another of suppressed unresolved issues with authority -

If you really are law enforcement in the NY PD ... you must have a pretty solid resume in the field of suppressed narcissism that ends up masquerading as heavy handed righteousness ... j/k - I think I heard that line in a movie somewhere years ago. Anyway, you should maybe opt for life- wellness. To wit psychological health is a huge part of that. Consider sending out your resume to say ... Fryeburg, Maine. Yeah, find some place where the soft tourist population of the warm season flees for dear life do to the onset of 'real' winters. You know? Where the town becomes a barren podunk wagon and outhouse depot, where cops have nothing better to do but to park in ambush and swipe their phones 38 hours a week, and the other 2 ... make quota by pulling the 22 mph over the speed limit folk just trying the get the hell through that miserable sub alpine abandonment. Relo to anywhere would be better than jammin' your head and life permanently up the dragon's ass of NYC's rectal heat. "No we don't" and "We want snow" are head knocking expectations there.

Did you see the 00z extended op Euro, tho? ha. I then compared the op GFS' PNA against the Euro's - just the single run. The GFS was about a -2.5 SD index; the Euro came in +2.5 5 point swing... Man, those two models just don't like one another. War Of The Roses The EPS mean is like -.25 ... so is lower than the operational's (likely) errant nonsense, but it is also higher than the GEFs. Seems like we're already entering the time of seasonal change, already, where the models start daydreaming. I do see that warming thickness have returned to the south over the longer term means, tho - about 10 days sooner than the 20th century climo, as it probably should.

The GFS very recently sank to the Pike before bouncing back N 50 or so critical miles over night ...Phew! spared anyone in SNE the agony of having fun - the ultimate goal of course. lol I'm wondering if the mid and extended range, having a boundary near by with waves every day and half offering 'hope' as Keven just said, may all do this whence arriving into shorter terms. Last minute CC shuffle I dunno man. I'm not sure how long I can hold on this particular winter post GHD. I'm likely to manifest ADHD pretty damn fast

I briefly got into an article over at Phys.org that discussed recently how CO2 cycle over the Arctic has changed from sink to source. here it is, https://phys.org/news/2025-01-millennia-arctic-boreal-region-source.html

same idea as of overnight guidance but bump everything 50 mi n Reasonable consensus at this point ...should be a stripe of moderate snows from the N Cap district of eastern NY across S VT/S NH with light QPF challenged mix down to Rt 2 or the maybe the Pike. The mechanics of this thing are weakening as it is coming through and that should limit the ability to truly scour out the interior of shallow cold despite a low track straight across the area. Should about do it for the Feb 1 mystery.

2.5" 13 on the season

18z GEFs corrected the low track dramatically sw some 250 mi for Fri evening … NE ME down to the Ma Pike Meanwhile the op version has observed continuity as the the southern outlier … That’s a pretty strong lean in fav of the op … too munch to ignore 18z oper Euro also S / tho no idea on thermal … looks like snow Rt 2 N with icy mix below then R s o the pike might even be more leery of an eventual total collapse …overall these are typical needle thread short side of mid range corrections. But the ens move gives them credence Not a major but may approach moderate or low even low end warn along a narrow corridor.

not that anyone wants to read this but ... the operational Euro and GFS were both a southern outliers to their 12z ens means, re Friday night.