Typhoon Tip

2.5" 13 on the season

18z GEFs corrected the low track dramatically sw some 250 mi for Fri evening … NE ME down to the Ma Pike Meanwhile the op version has observed continuity as the the southern outlier … That’s a pretty strong lean in fav of the op … too munch to ignore 18z oper Euro also S / tho no idea on thermal … looks like snow Rt 2 N with icy mix below then R s o the pike might even be more leery of an eventual total collapse …overall these are typical needle thread short side of mid range corrections. But the ens move gives them credence Not a major but may approach moderate or low even low end warn along a narrow corridor.

not that anyone wants to read this but ... the operational Euro and GFS were both a southern outliers to their 12z ens means, re Friday night.

It's not the most sciency thing to say ... but it seems like there's a signal out there that is being masked by the operational tenor - trying to hide it. muah hahaha. Seriously though, if the EPO cold source alleviates while the PNA is neutral neggy ...that signal above may emerge in time. time will tell, but the EPO is the only thing sticking winter heads in the sand. So long as it's enabling, they'll be happy to stay buried.

Proooobably not with the 'climate alarmists on this forum' Most of those that I have read are not really alarmists (first of all...). If there are really alarmists among us ... they are too few to care. Everyone else demonstrate enough intelligence that it is more likely they understand that the above d-day clock concept covers a spectrum of threats. Duh. It is less likely they would even mention it, as the content as it relates to CC and the risks therein, are quite remedial to the going understandings about climate change objective reality. Climate is just one facet in the d-day clock's larger compendium of risks, all of which are man made ... etc. That's the purpose of it.

It may have started that trend at 6z

The ONI distraction ( to me ) is another expose into coupling breakdown

No one asking me and I’m just poking my nose in but … imho, as soon as the hemisphere decides to switch off the EPO cold source, all wintery and/or outlook expectations related to will find themselves surprising wrong while mid latitude continent balms out disproportionately, when more than the climate-based ‘above normal’ takes over. Basically reminds everyone where the world really is When that happens is your question

May be short duration but we’re getting easily advisory scale wind gusting, leaning tree tops and audible indoors

Re the 1st/2nd, I'm not sure I totally buy the N corrections at 00z. I'd like to see any 'needle thread' scenario inside of 4.5 days before feeling very confident. This recent event that laid down 4-6" regionally was also errantly handled at this range - owing to the higher compression and speed soaked flow. FWIW the 06z GFS with just a small adjustment S and brought mix/ ice to Rt 2, possibly even the Pike. Not a major event, but for those feeling a bit winter storm lorn ... it's better than nothing.

I dunno if any of that's going to happen but that 06z GFS was a hoot. Clipper, then whatever GHD ... then, two SW flow snow burst events, finally ending in a cold available coastal. None of which were majors but kinda like shouldn't be there? the clipper and GHD are okay but those latter ones. The interesting nerd aspect, all's during a -PNA/+NAO It doesn't have a lot of support from the other guidance ... or the super synoptic indicators for that matter, but I guess it's not physically impossible either.

no it sucks... nothing' to see here - ha Imagine if this happen now, with the modernity of physical society: "People in New England, and in its geological extension southward through Long Island, have felt small earthquakes and suffered damage from infrequent larger ones since colonial times. Moderately damaging earthquakes strike somewhere in the region every few decades, and smaller earthquakes are felt roughly twice a year. The Boston area was damaged three times within 28 years in the middle 1700's, and New York City was damaged in 1737 and 1884. The largest known New England earthquakes occurred in 1638 (magnitude 6.5) in Vermont or New Hampshire, and in 1755 (magnitude 5.8) offshore from Cape Ann northeast of Boston. The Cape Ann earthquake caused severe damage to the Boston waterfront. The most recent New England earthquake to cause moderate damage occurred in 1940 (magnitude 5.6) in central New Hampshire."

re-assessed to 3.9

Same with me... I went out to the Bay area back in 2021 and hoped I would get to experience the shake - nothing. Yet, there's been a few of these minor rattlers in recent decade right locally. I hadn't felt any of them tho. This one, I did, and it was first to finally feel that. It's definitely a different vibe to the type of vibration from the freight trains going by - which unfortunately limits the re-sail-abiility of my house but that's a different matter. Anyway, you get the distinct impression of having 0 control/ 'what's happening'

There it is! M 4.1 - 13 km SE of York Harbor, Maine

Went to text and there were already messages waiting ... Hudson NH was rattling too -

i believe i just felt a quake interesting -

It's emerging as transient. Probably a day or two of warm sector, less like a "synoptic heat burst" Which can get pretty darn balmy in a pre diabetic era of CC, heh. But it won't be a 5 days of 68 with two days near 80 like 2017. It's more of a canonical EPO response across the continent. There's a pretty strong -EPO out there, and with the under pinning PNA in negative phase, the concurrence of those two index modes favors initial height falls down stream of the NE Pac/Alaskan region positive hgt anomaly to be the out west, first, version... Eventually the cold loading would spread throughout Canada and dip down in the NP ... prior to then coming east and that's when we get a plausible winter reclaiming a week ... perhaps the 7th thru the 13th estimate? As far as the GHD event in the foreground, the problem with this one can be identified well by the general scope. It is being ejected across the continent straight into a region that is loosing support for it ever being there. The onset of -PNA, is clue as well... the region E is entering a negative interference. It's why the S/W space is weakening as it comes. It's no longer really even identifiable S of NS after exiting the upper m/a in some guidance renditions. But there's a race between conserving, vs how fast it damps out to the point where it's nothing.

Heh ... didn't read back enough on that one. I saw "...down there" and impulsively donkeyed. haha

That makes 1 of us

If the clipper takes the GFS route, I personally doubt 40 on Wed N of the Pike and probably not HFD - PVD. I'm not even sure how to interpret the Euro .. it's almost like it's too strong with a primary to develop a low in CC Bay like the GFS does ...so it snows through 12z in a burst, then goes 37F with west wind that smells like rain but's really just rotted polar air for a few hours.

there's another solution - you could disallow X reposts ... hahaha

Yup… this event’s got some serious resiliency in the runs … It’s sub index at this point but who cares. It won’t be denied GFS still promoting a thaw soon after but it’s real tenuous looking

It’s moving through the proverbial meat grinder with that oppressive jet careening by (N/stream). Unless that alleviates … that’s what it would take But I don’t know if the general wholesale synoptic handling is even right …

Thread that needle…. it’s like we’re coming full circle with this potential Or trying to