Typhoon Tip

One aspect I've noticed over the many years of guidance behavior ...and actually have use it/anticipated it at times, is that the general model ambit will flavor a pattern like that above, or its antithesis, with surprising coherence sometimes in time ranges of D11-15, only to then lose it. In fact, the interim runs as the days then click by, even attempting to reverse the signal in mangled forms and discontinuity from run to run. All but lost. But then the original signal ultimately came back ... say D5-7, just perhaps not as amplified as the original vision.

Still a vague signal for heat circa 11th -15th ... It's not as pretty in the guidance as 3 days ago, but the telecon spread offers correlation room for it, and there is some attempt - albeing weakly at presetnt - in the operational model versions to -PNAP that flow structure across the mid latitude continent. That's code for this kind of jet (tendency) ... If it fades, it fades ... but the signal's still there.

People were concerned for rain happening like at all on the weekend but I have a different take ( seein' as anyone at all cares haha). I don't mind humid thundery forms of rain. It's the 55 degree shit spray constant shart out of ole Labrador's anus that grades at nerves for me. This doesn't appear to be of that ilk tomorrow and Saturday. Having a frontalysis stalled through the area with theta -e pooling under solar max sun is great cloud video op for one. But I dunno ...otherwise as a Met, I like actionable weather, and having CAPEy air amid a convergence zone can be fun lightning shows and interesting rain rate thunderstorms. It's also not likely to be raining all the time. All of which is happening in still mild to warm air.

BDL is weird ...not just because their maxes are suspect ( if that's still the case...). Right now they're putting up a 73 .... KFIT is 83... It is 83 here... It is 80 at KASH and KBED. 73 why? I see this all the time there at this mid morning ~ time range on these warm days. Check back at 3:47 PM? 101 ... Exaggerating as a joke there but still ...their temp arc 'behavior' at that site is diurnally weird

yeah that heat signal we were noticing the other day seems to be getting lost in the shuffle. may just be typical summer flaccidity sending random codes to the silos so to speak...

alright ..it's a little warm. not quite 'hot' per se, but please don't sit so close to me warm

OH I'm sure... I remember Met Lab ... we used to get maps that contained just the 500 mb T, Td and wind velocities. Then, knowing that 1 inch on the chart was ~ = 10 kts, we had to draw all the 500 mb isotachs zomb Determine the dots, then connect the dots, on steroids ( there was more to it than this ... ) Met students today? I bet they don't need to know that. All they need to know is how to get chatGPT to create a facsimile that has a very high simulacra value, thus fooling the professor into believing it was done by an actual human being.

Back in the heady days of college ... there was a convective index known as the K. The K index ...basically it's a calculation that describes how quickly an unstable environment blows its load. I just never hear it mentioned anywhere over the years. A high K index ends up being a self destructive convection sequencing more lateral rains ... Low is like a 4000 SB-CAPE sitting under -3 CIN. Oh here it is, K is George's indiex ( or K ) and the Ts and Td are at respective sigma levels ( pressure) K-index values vs. Thunderstorm Probability Less than 20 None 20 to 25 Isolated thunderstorms 26 to 30 Widely scattered thunderstorms 31 to 35 Scattered thunderstorms Above 35 Numerous thunderstorms

mm kinda (personally) don't wanna see that nam set up. If we lift mu caped air over a boundary ... regardless of kind, it fuzzes out into a putrid warm rain with embedded orange flickers and distant thunder

exc Except that the NAM's grid indicates a convective induced frontal sag through the region with under cutting N-NE cooled air... It's all probably just NAM fantasy at this range, but if suppose it had legs ... it's pretty clear in the FOUS that day's SB CAPE is shit smeared. It's also now losing the low transit through NNE so it's going after Saturday too.

hi res vis imagery has the "back edge" of this smoke band about 10 minutes up 89 from CON and collapsing SE...

Now we're ahead of yesterday... 77 Smoke appears to be doing the typical mid-day weakening. I'm wondering what the cause is for that. I've observed many times, these smoke bands in otherwise clear air/non-cloud contaminated skies do seem to 'thin', albeit subtly, as the mid days near. Perhaps kinetic heating of the smoke particulates, when there is higher solar insolation, then increases dispersion mechanics..

damn... Saturday's still up in the air. 06z GFS kind of collapsed out of nowhere ... removing it's St Lawr. Seaway low transit. That's more like the GGEM's idea all along. Yet, it's not inundating with steady rain, like the GGEM, which showed less nor'easter low, but still fudge packs a rain band through everywhere... I'm wondering if even at this short lead ... the weak flow is causing a lot of uncertainty. The 00z Euro took a step toward more low up there, which is more of a structured warm sector thru SNE... it seems regardless, PF up there is losing Saturday to rain... check. We need to see that happen in order for the rest of us to rejoice and bathe with 70 hot virgins while he's loading the coal into the bath house steam furnace for a gay roman day spa... If we can get that symbolically arranged, all is right in the cosmos. j/k .. it may just be a frontalysis miasma day. sultry dps with light sky but little real blue... in between dark patches, with thunder audible by 11:30 off in the distance type of day.

yesterday's catching up to us from the past - ... kinda reminds me of the QM stuff about time being in both directions. Like reality explodes out of QM, as an emergence, so ... that's what makes the observation actually possible. Man, that's weird - anyway, an hour ago i cited that we were ahead of yesterday per hour::minute with temperature recovery, but had only recovered 10 - yesterday's delta per was 16... this difference was that initially, today had a 6 or so deg head start, so at the time we were ahead of yesterday. however now, we are the same as yesterday per hour:minute. So today's smoke retarded rising at a slower rate is allowing yesterday to overtake us, winning the race from the past. ... think i need to dump this coffee... so for the time being, and all other factors being equal, that leaves smoke blunting as a high confidence limiting factor. i don't think the models actually factored that in. the NAM/met machine numbers are 87-89-ish along the BDL-FIT-ASH arc ... we may still make that because the complexity of this crushingly nerdy expose is then enhanced further by the fact that machine numbers tend to be too cool on this side of the solar max anyway... so the smoke blunting give the machine numbers at an unfair competitive advantage.

it is claiming tho. heh yesterday we hit the nadir temp at 5:49 am at 45, and by 8 we were 61. today, we nadir at 54 right around that same hour::minute, and by 8 we were 64. so even though we are ahead of yesterday by a couple few clicks, are delta is only 10 vs 16 not having much else to go on .. it seems reasonably that smoke may be playing a mitigating factor. there's also some high clouds being generated/back-building down from the N as the anticyclonic curl is passing over the Greens/White so... bottom line it's a polluted sky. i gotta say ...so far its seems the writing is on the wall for this summer. Earth is going to obsess over finding reasons to always run the temp results along the bottom edge of the what all indicators combined suggests the probability spectrum could be.

no shit... how much is smoking claiming temps - ooh!

yeah, was asking about this yesterday .. with the HRRR stuff etc ... So far we're ahead of yesterday in T recovery by 4 ( 64 vs 60) by hour::minute. We didn't bottom out quite as deep. 54 here. I realize others came in at or just under 50 but by and large these readings were above the previous night's lows. The higher launch may be skewing/hiding if there is any smoke-induced lag so hard to quantify -

We have a lot of mosquitoes out of nowhere this evening. Lot of atonal ear chorus if you venture out … Our town has a policy now where they won’t spray unless you request - some environmental initiative? Used to be they automatically rolled the fogger trucks. I’ve always been on the fence about it. I mean I’m about as environmentally high handed as they come but only eclipsed by my hatred for those motherfuckin mosquitoes! It’s always a tug o war but then my reticence to pull the trigger and make the call was ended when I’d hear the hiss as it went - some kind of weird rationalization that at least I didn’t make the decision lol So … the old guy at the end of the street succumbed to his cancer (sadly) earlier this spring … I suspect with him went the phone call requesting for our neighborhood. He was a smoker up to the end. I don’t think it was the pesticide heh

Overall that was a damn warm GFS run at 500mb. even weakens that trough out there. Brings the heat wave Scott and I were talking about for the 12

82 here now... 45 to 82 Dp is 40

For 18z Saturday, Euro left ... GFS right

mm hm https://phys.org/news/2025-06-wildfire-hazy-skies-massachusetts-air.html

Pretty dense band of smoke over the eastern Lakes/upstate NY. We appear circumstantially protected for now but I’m wondering if that may get involved tomorrow …

That’s what I’m wondering … if/when the temp correlates. Maybe even how the particle physics works in that, but keeping it simple. … which circumstantially would also have dependency on accuracy for where the plumes will be located/density in time ….