Typhoon Tip

There's an underlying/not well realized forcing that is somehow by physical cause being suppressed in the operational runs. The -PNA, with an out-of-season EPO, along with a flat/and/or E limb NAO, are all demonstrative in the numerical values from all three major ensemble systems, EPS/GEFs/GEPs... Basically a -2 SD PNA, with nominal fluctions +/- wrt the other indices. Without any intervening forcing, that should layout out eastern N/A ridging. This numerical teleconnector spread/outlook has been in the cast for over a week's worth of daily mass-field computations. Yet these operational member versions just refuse to ever map a pattern in their respective mid and extended range charts that fully occupies what the spread description above says they should be... - this I am convinced is to enable Ineedsnow to torment Kevin, all the while ... he doesn't realize that in having all that numerical basis for heat, being suppressed by the operational versions ... is both highly unstable and probably just a matter of time before there's a ridge blossom. Or not... it is true that sometimes these telecons will divorce from the operational runs and vice versa. When that happens, given time they will tend to converge. The question is, do they converge into this year without a summer game interminably until we finally get hot for one week in early September? Or, do we suddenly explode hot.

They’ve been getting scientific attention, different means to describe amid the ambit but ‘heat burst’ and ‘synergistic heat events’ even ‘ heat bombs’ to name a few When they occur … realized temperatures will often exceed guidance/leading indicators some times by as much as 2 or even 3 standard deviations… The frequency of these has been increasing throughout the world over the last 2 decades. Im not sure if the heat up there straddling the borders is of synergistic nature … but it admittedly has that look.

6z runs still insisting rapid improvement west to east after noon. Looks like they time the last of spritzer sprinkles where you are, around 2 ... 11am western MA and CT. But all guidance have RH slipping < 50% at all standard ceiling sigma levels everywhere by 21z, which means lots of sun penetration at this time of year - no question. We're in the solar max, and 2pm the sun depth is actually still not far off its zenith. And I've seen 10 F temp responses at 4pm breakouts before - not sure the atmospheric wick is set for that. But some response would happen should the sky uncover. I've been surprised at this time of year, at just how fast recovery can happen in the past. Doubting the models and ended not right for having done so. You know the sun is that strong. If this circulation begins to shallow out at all, it will penetrate rather quickly. We'll see...

Outstanding in fairness ... Those of us middle aged know this cannot possible compare to those Aprils of the 1955 through about 2010 ... And the Mays of 2018 -2022 were peculiarly bad, too... I must amid, grudgingly, that this immediate last April was an over achiever

actually ... MET and MAV are up to 71+ at BDL and 68+ at ASH... I guess that's not too bad.

18z NAM salvages saturday after 12pm ... take it run man. Still selling -1.5 SD high temperature Sunday afternoon ... rather incongruous with the background behavior of always verifying warmer than guidance, because guidance is still modeling an atmosphere that predates the acceleration of GW so we'll see It may not be a "warm" day but I suspect the solar max roasting through a d-slope flow like that's going to go above machine numbers. Might be a nerd fest opportunity -

It's amusing how merely reporting what the models are indicating, somehow earns the reporter this emoji like it's their fault.

The weather pattern's been behaving like it's trying to set a precedence to completely fuck us out of summer... leaving us with no season of preference - almost like it were by design. heh

It's a winter storm ... no question about it. We're actually raining pretty good - I realize rad and circumstance changed since you posted this, but I'm just noting the overall baroclinic layout, and how the deep layer circulation is behaving. It's still winter when troughs are doing this crap -

Like the warm sector punched in ... yeah. It smells like spring now though - at least down here. We're 2/3 .. 3/4 leafed out. All have started but the sizes are small to mid. We need that 82/58 for three days with big sun to elephant ear.

That's kind of a weird look with Tuesday. 566 thickness/850mb T's to +13C, supporting 85F for a high, while buckin' for a coastal response going on near the Del Marva...? I'll tell yeah ...never seen a season so hell bent on stopping the arrival of summer

Operational models are rather divorced from the teleconnector spread though. I would trust them even less than the typical uncertainty, beyond D5 or so... maybe even D4 is where the separation begins. Particularly in the Euro, but none of them are very good complimentary in form.

Nice ... 67 and the sky is allowing a flood of sun in. Nice little sneaky gem day in between the shits.

Capitalism can't solve the CC crisis. Our culture cannot seem to process any mere movement or action without sending it through a lens of how to convert that into a profit ... It stands in the way of innovative policies that would contribute to overall humanity-mitigation in the CC crisis. We have the tech ... It is vastly easier to find Solar companies charging exorbitant greed fulfillment ...because they are not doing it for the virtue of health and vitality of the environment - CC obviously being a part of that. Oh, they market it as such... but that's not the agenda and intentions. They are doing it quite obviously for the myopic goal of money. That's a major failing of the U.S.A. - the failing is vapidity in morality and virtuosity. Free market societies don't have to be myopically driven to the acquisition of the wealth. They can certainly be imagined as functioning with those as curbs in the streets of economy. But we're still recovering from about 200 years of Industrialism that was wholly profligate in use of the environment - that's a lot of generations of people and deep enough cultural heritage that just about everyone walking and talking within our societal machinery just doesn't have an intrinsic awareness of how else to function. We just can't seem to do it in this society of ours. We've been over this lament aplenty over the recent years, here and there in threads. In the case of Solar, there cannot be a profit incentive, because well more that half the mass of population cannot be placed in systemic dept so that a small fraction of wealth earners can parachute to opulence, in the name of saving the world. That's not going to work. Yet, that's what we have, or are approaching, as our contribution to renewable/green energy solutions to lowering our carbon footprint. Wrong. China gets it. They may have other evils and iniquities and whatever in the hell people need to describe them as sons-o-bitches, notwithstanding ... But in this area of advancing tech, their solutions and implementation efforts actually look a lot more like a benefit to the planet then anything we've done or are doing. It's never going to happen in the United States, so long as there is a dumbed down populace that cannot know their ass from a hole in the ground, when it comes to making an intelligent, virtuous and moral choice when voting officiates into positions that exert enormous influence on policies critical to all this - when both sides of the equation are profit oriented/'what's in it for me' ... we are at a cultural disadvantage that prevents. We need a revolution of thinking - what's actually going on is that the crisis needs to be free to fix. That's why China, for all their whatever we want to call it, is superior. Because they are not slowed by a quagmire that is created by every breathing entity in a culture stalled by profit ambition.

So much for salvaging Saturday .. that seemed wishy washy to me to be honest. That weird diving meso-beta scale short wave through the eastern Lakes is still rotating through at noon. There's a wave a of systemic WAA rains that swaths over Friday into Friday night, but the models being probably too far NW with the total structure was then wrapping too much dry slot underneath. It's corrected en masse just enough SE that we convert the WAA phase of this things translation, into a mist fest under putrid gray sky all cool day.. Mother's Day still looks to be in tact for substantive recovery.

Northern regions likely won’t share in this sentiment but today turned decent down here. Most will share in a decent day tomorrow though. If rains two days later meh. Normal. It’s not a bad thing to sack Friday if it means continued stuffing of that word up the butts of those who obsess over typing it … In more practical matters, we need more rain

for the 324th time, those west Atl NAM cyclones are too far NW at this range

The first paper appears to be backing into the notion of expanding Hadley Cell. He does cite a source; "Trenberth and his co-authors in the Journal of Climate" I have not personally read Trenberth, et al, however ... I began observing this expanding phenomenon years and years ago myself actually. Really since 1998 to be honest.. but more so since the late aughts. I have since read of this (confirming) elsewhere. Supports grows in the compendium. It doesn't mean the Hadely Cell ( mean circulation ) is stronger, btw. Size and strength are not necessarily correlated in this sense. As an aside, as the circulation manifold grows, it's structure in fact has become less coherent and more nebular. Transient circulation anomalies with meanders and so forth. The termination of the HC circulation envelope is also not an identifiable boundary. It's a fade into the westerlies - above which is where the jet streams are located as we gain latitude, further north or south in each hemisphere. As the HC expands do to global CC, this was written as being primarily noticeable in the summer months but I have a problem with that assumption. One aspect about winters in recent decades, I have noticed the basal geostrophic flow velocities at mid level have been increasing in the middle troposphere. This can be corroborated by noted uptick in the number records set regarding air-land speed of intercontinental, west to east bound commercial flights, for example. Also, both modeling and observed incidences of 500 mb winds above 200 kts. etc... This can only happen because of gradient - to me, it is quite intuitive that as the HC expands, and the winter heights fall in the northern latitudes, the gradient anomaly would physically necessaritate speeding up the field. The aforementioned observations certainly fit that idea... So, I don't believe the HC is less expanded in the winters, so much as its geometry has been converted to energy in the form of speeding up the winter hemisphere. The Earth has a heat engine. As metaphor, a combustion engine converts chemical energy, to combustion energy, to mechanical energy, propelling a vehicle down the road. So of metaphor there. Speculation aside ...I don't have a problem with his assertion that the ocean temperatures, increasing at those mid latitudes, is because of the jets moving N/S - because I suspect the moving N/S and the HC expansion, are one in the same. That said, HC expanding would cause lengthier periods whence the SS wind stressing is less, thus causing less turbulent mixing - this would cause more heat to store in stratification ( possibly) in the top layer. It would also match the idea of these "oceanic heat waves" that have been observed with increasing frequency in recent years. As to the reaction by the latter author... I think perhaps if the original "hot take" ( lol ) had spent more time connecting the dots, the latter reader might have understood the causation - and not been so easily induced to pounce on the correlation.

Btw ... we're entering the solar maximum. for the next 92.change days we'll be doing caucasoid chromosomal damage controls ..

yeah, noticed that it's sped up some. originally - like 6 days ago - that one plunked down in, phased, and retro'ed the whole of it to make it one big shitty choke fest for 5 days. i was even dreading 2005 in a thought. not the case any longer.

should finally all be rotated away tomorrow...but again, Friday - ooph Couple winners, Mom's day through next Tuesday ...then we'll see if that TV vortex that really shouldn't be there, goes on to stress physics in order to fuck with us and actually pulls it off. lol

oh there's billions of planets with microbial life. the paramount question ...well, actually the paramount question is getting that proven. but i guess the penultimate question is whether there's life that contains sentience and capacitance comparable to ours - hopefully "better" in terms of collective morality and virtuosity ...but that's something else. LOL anyway, back to the cosmic JW discrepancy stuff: i don't dismiss theses notions entirely. open minded. but i have an 'accordion' hypothesis about the cosmos, that doesn't require portals, and parallels, ... bleeding previous dimensions into our space and the like. basically it goes like, our region of space ( out to perhaps 13 billion or so light years) is expanding ... the last 8 or so billion years of which has been expanding faster than light speed. that creates an 'optic event horizon' ...where that speed exceeds light, and so the light that is beyond will never be detectable for distances > than that 13 or so billion. but out there beyond is a deformation where space is nearly not expanding or contracting, demarcating a cosmic region where it is contracting - which may or may not be the same size as this expanding area we are a part. this goes on interminably...with zones of contraction and expanding, like an infinite honeycomb.. and yes, areas of contraction may shrink until some point where they start expanding, but so do expanding areas ... slow and eventually reverse... These cycles take longer than the 13 billion years we can see - so we have no record. this is sort of like looking at the top of a slowly boiling fluid - only space is doing the same thing at god like scales of distance. The expanding region from this hypothetical vantage point are like 'upwelling' ...and you can see between the upwelling regions, you have convergence - space may in fact be flowing like convection if you were to rotate our perspective somehow by 90 deg.

pretty good assessment here overall, yup. I mean I like to deeper dive into why these larger identified resonances behaved the way they did, but just as a step back recognition, agreed.

Yup...this too - wow, you're on a roll today. ha

alright alright. it's 62. making some progress.