Typhoon Tip

It's over ... man, it's down right palpable in the guidance complexion. Sure, it's not impossible to cash in on a bowling ball low ... Or if the -NAO does in fact materialize, then relaxes --> some sort of restoral event... either way. But, I find those as fleeting possibilities that are not dependable. We'll see. But depending on these to happen, also when a warmer world was only just suppressed all along and feel we've been sort of collectively enabled or lulled into forgetting that, mmm Warmth is spring loaded and may be ready to bounce the other way, pun intended. See, this is where you and I have tended to agree in the past... When the next season is air apparent, I like to have on with it. Rip the band aide off, sans the fantasy and hiding head in the enabling sand, and go big. Of course, personal druthers and reality seldom share space but hey ... there's always dreaming.

Enjoy your "taste" of spring everybody ...

with objective reality ? go for it

It will become less and less likely ...reducing in probability of return, every year moving forward while the objective reality of climate change continues.

I'm hoping it scours this granular pack away frankly. Snow banks are exposing dog turds and whatever in the hell-o societal shit stains now and the stuff in the fields is useless

So would the NAO be sort of a prerequisite to any such event? ... as I was mentioning to Kevina, yesterday, I've seen these big NAO deals in the models just up and not happen some 50% of the time. Negative or positive. I haven't done a deep dive this morning yet, but just on the surface of what I have glanced at during these droning morning meetings ... there's signs there that this -NAO is also showing some continuity issues already. I wouldn't be shocked if it mutates into some less variation ... in which case, a recovery type/restoral event ( which is kinda what you're intimating there) isn't really required as much and there we go. Then again, "bowling season" kicks in now and lasts thru ~ Easter every year, which can happen regardless, too. Those types don't seem to be related to anything

There's two things going on concurrently ... 1 sensors being above normal 2 the baseline normal is actually a +d(normal) For sensors that are manifesting only minor error, it gets difficult to parse out how much is the sensor's fault vs the changing background state. What's annoying is when any one attempts to divisively use the sensor's contribution to the error, to downplay and/or avoid accepting the background state. Having said that... yeah, in this case, +2 when every other surrounding climo site is mere decimals above or below ( most below...), that's fairly suspect.

Tracking spring's arrival ... ... Thursday mid day to late afternoon looks spectacular on this 12z NAM FOUS grid. +7 at 900 mb and +2 at 800 mb, with at least partial sun - whatever the machine guidance has, you go above it by a click or two. I checked the 500 and 300 mb relative humidity and they are <50% so the cirrus pollution will be minimal. That all spells probably the first maxing of a mixing level due to daytime heating. If we get +5C at 850 in that general synopsis we'll be near 70 in the 2-meters Granted, this is just the NAM ... but I'm imagining what that will be like. It's been months since any temperatures even close to that - it will be a 'spring fever' at least for

This op ed above is moronic by an idiot who happens to have articulation skills.

Except for that obvious tendency for -NAO retrograde behavior to the circulation mode to suppress heights along 40 N, sure ... If we can avoid that, bombs away. The question is whether it is real or not. I spoke at length about this yesterday but it likely wasn't read. The NOA index is the worst handled of all of them. The models may phantom either negative or positive modes, about half of the time. This negative NAO, or quasi likeness to a -NAO circulation over eastern Canada, was not a part of the original warm outlook for the mid month. It became a part over the last 3 to 4 days-worth of guidance. Warm enthusiasts will have to rely upon the poorer performance of the index and 'hope' the current -NAO coherency in the runs is false. Otherwise, ... the warmth will not get past 40 N - or perhaps 40 F either. It just doesn't at our latitude, and proximity to the rest of the continent, in March, if/when there is a backward oriented jet coming from the D. Straight and pointed at the Great Lakes. So we'll see.

They can't get it right at D8 with much continuity, so "long range now" unfortunately means less than even the usual long range dung. Not much about this looks very realistic from the long range Euro

EPS follows the operational's lead. My hero's the Euros with zeros heh

the one for the 20th...

Yeah it's the age old dilemma of whether the model run can actually happen or not. One has to remember it's about probability's > 0 and < 100 ... there's not absolute. For starters, the models are not putting out solutions that are physically impossible.

Relax Kevin .... we're talking about the GFS. There's something off with the GEFs forecasting, perhaps systemically. No one said this means were getting that to transpire.

something is going on that's a little off here. you don't get the entire ensemble mass to move as dramatically as this, in a single run - at D6 no less... It's one thing if the operational version meanders off into a fantasy for a run or two. But these giant movements have been sharing the space, en masse, systemically at the same time. You probably don't recall my mentioning last week with all the noise in here... that there may be something legit there, but it's perhaps ( supposition here...) just being unusually masked by the circumstantial hemisphere of shenanigans going on... This thing did this pop up out of nowhere act last week on a couple of runs by the way. Went from barely discernible to an ominious look... , only to vanish. It's been yawing back and forth with very odd variance

oh f so it is... jesus here's the 00z vs 12z run correction for D6: I will also add ...this happened last week, folks. We had a run or two where this huge single run explosion of presentation lurched on, then.... vanished. I remember saying to Will in a post back then, that it seems like there may really be something there worth monitoring, but perhaps something peculiar about the model challenges IN in this period, were/are just masking it. ...Sometimes a run gets through the mask so to speak - we'll see...

It's the one we were originally tracking for the 9th ..etc. etc..

Right ...two different aspects in play. the CC stuff - true the warm anomalies in the models, particularly in March have less predictive skill than cold ones. They both error and/or won't be precisely accurate in longer lead guidance, but of the two... warmth has the bigger error potential. The "our location" has a bullet point list of different aspects that can be expanded upon but no one's going to bother reading them haha

I think it's an important distinction ... This -EPO dominating 8 week assault, 30 years ago? One might wonder if this winter would have been a different beast, if/when doing some sort of attribution calculus that involves subtracting CC factorization. It's like you might end up with a quotient that says, "if we were not porked by a warming world, this -EPO winter would have been X cold, not X' cold" just a broad supposition/curiosity here. Not declaring CC victory or anything

It's not just the GFS... All guidance sourcing, including their respective teleconnector derivatives started insidiously changing matters, beginning last Thurs or Friday, and have been eroding at the warm complexion all weekend since. Almost by sense more than coherence... The oper. Euro actually has even gone so far as to propose winter event around the Ides - however zero confidence for the time being ... But it's the laughable insult of it at all, considering what had been suggested all along. That's the usual consequence in dealing with extended ranges, but in this case it is being compounded even further by three factors: 1 March extended range modeling performance in particularly (due to seasonal change and solar forcing), often enough proves to have been an extra special piece of shit. 2 Warm anomalies are the most fragile, non-committed metric of all handling in guidance as a general practice. Small perturbations that may even go less noticed ... decapitate and/or redistributes it geographically, and it causes larger error compared to when following cold anomalies. While both tend to be over amplified, in general, too. This goes both ways. They over and/or under perform more frequently, but the warmer side varies more. 3 The sensitivity as I look now through mid month, appears to be coming from realigning the super synoptic aspects between the mid continent and the N-NE Atlantic. There's been either a manifestation of positive height anomalies, or "behaviorally" wrt to the circulation, depending on model and cycle. In either case, suppressing the flow back SW of where the -PNA was previously sending heights N. The ridge in the SE ends up pancaked ... completely different scenario if all that happens. Whether there is a linear (coherent block) or non-linear (when flow acts like there is one when it isn't apparently there) that is a -NAO going on, and either is causing the previous warm Ides to do what most do in this anus of season and region of the planet. Here is the problem with all this ... the NAO is an even more miserable piece of modeled shit to index. That's code for don't believe it - but I'm sure that won't stop people from licking the toad. In fact, it's not fiction really to claim that half of these (-) or (+) NAO outlooks just don't end up occurring ... If this factorization goes the other way, it's likely the ridge reasserts and proxies the temperature anomaly on the warm side - usually at the perfect time to ruin all the enabled d-dripper highs. There is still a -PNA/+EPO in place while the models attempt to change the orbit of Jupiter over one index ... so there's a lot of correction tension pointed on that side.

Best to hope for an operational CMC version as we had toward the 12th. If the operational GFS is more right, heh. -NAO west vs east bias may play a role.

GEFs are diametric to that at this time. Also - that is a new obtrusion into a longer term continuity; sudden continuity changes are typically proven suspect. Just sayin it may not be stable as an outlook - Lastly, the spatial/synoptic features out in time have blocking heights over the eastern limb of the NAO. That bias correlates to raising heights E of Chicago to the EC...and with the -PNA well under way ( negative west, positive east), these correlations et al don't bode well for us winter enthusiasts. Best to set up our expectations lower.

That's how you we know it is finally spring ... The phenomenon in itself, of can't truly enjoy a nape afternoon like this .. because the sullen realization of tomorrow's cold, is quite endemically identifiable to this p.o.s. geographic region of the planet at this time of year.