Typhoon Tip

Oh is that case now... Yeah take your word for it - I just remember discussion over the years related to that model over doing warmth on cold sides of cyclones. Perhaps that's different now.

You can pretty half those numbers with these snow products

If you factor for the GGEM's robust warm lower troposphere bias that's probably more snow than folks think in that solution... but still rain for the southern half of CT/RI .. it's a more of compressing p-type transition axis

84 hour NAM is blossoming a baroclinic leaf along a shallow corridor OV-NE ... ( heh, it's somethin' ) not for not, it came in noticeable more amped 72+ hours through the western Lakes.

it's a tedious nerdiness but I'm always curious when that first pond edge ice forms ...None as of this morning leaving town at dawn, but that was our third morning 25 to 28 F, so despite climbing to the upper 40s or lower 50s by day, with the low sun angles and the longer nights ... I could see us start rimming the ponds soon.

If there is one, keep in mind that there is a coherent time-lag in the statistical correlation. Any subsequent forcing on the Arctic Oscillation lags by as much as 20 to 30 days. Few know this, or, demonstrate very readily via turns of phrase and deliveries of prose where they've beautifully ( otherwise ) fused the sudden stratospheric warming sciences into their speculative, and I'm like " ...you do realize the effects of SSW are outside your forecast range, right?." There is a particularity that needs to be observed, else ... whatever is being observed is more likely to fail coherent forcing on the AO outside of coincident index numerology. The warm plume has to propagate downward in time ( i.e., 'downwelling' ). In every case of SSW graphical layout back to 1979, this downward motion appears to 'spiral' away from a central axial point that begins near the axis of PV rotation, at a very high beginning SIGMA level - typically between 5 and 30 hPa. As it descends, it will first appear to weaken, before the next node comes in warmer, then fades slightly ... then warmer, each node gaining x-coordinate distance upon each emergence. That growth in the x-coordinate is a representation of gaining distance from the axis of rotation. Notice the ending node is almost faded/indistinquishable in anomaly relative to the surrounding features of the ambient field ( nearing 150 hPa SIGMA) there bottom right along the nodal curve. That is tropopausal mechanical absorption/ increasing stabilization and suppression of the depths ensues, and that weakens the PV ... "pancaking" and blocking in the mid and upper troposphere ignites. This entire translation of events, as you can see took ~ from Jan 15th to the end of February ... and we can see in this case a very clear and coherent AO correlation taking place: 2013 -0.610 -1.007 -3.185 0.322 0.494 0.549 -0.011 0.154 -0.461 0.263 2.029 1.475 ... Bold is March. SSW don't really value-add like the popular mantra of the day has it in their mind(s) and bandy about. If one did take place in the last week of this month... We may be hearing about an AO response some time after Christmas.. which is fine. But, I also offer that this particular year we may not have much trouble with AO being negative, so it could be lost in the din of a -AO complexion hemisphere anyway.

The signal at mid month is legit. The Euro run itself obviously is not - not yet anyway. But, the fact that there is something situated out there in that particular spacial-temporal range is what's paramount there, and could very well be the initial distantly distorted vision in models. A few individual GFS members are enhancing the N flow/loading into mid latitudes along with a deep nadir in the heights nearing mid month, but from this range that can mean everything from a dry albeit deep cold wave ...to perhaps including a pattern entry event. The concepts/previous discussion are still in play. Overnight AO wow!

There's a much louder signal nearing the 15th of the month coming out of the American cluster for some form of larger scale index-related instability/correction event across the mid latitude of the continent... The PNA is heading into a mode reversal, while the on-going -EPO resists change ( and is in fact is anchor through the WPO! ), is an implication for a highly sloped western Canadia flow nearing the mid month time frame - This is the ensemble derived teleconnectors. The operational guidance may or may not reflect that at this time or a given run. Be that as it may this is a multi agency, multiple run signal. CDC is in fact a screaming winter signal for North America and has been been since mid last week landing on the ides of the month; this last evenings was the most spectacular, with/when wpo-epo arc are in sync signals a whopper AB phase of the Pac circulation, which is a very high correlation to/for deep layer N conveyor and cold loading into N. America. The CPC rendition of the PNA is not quite as robust ...however, shows a tightly clustered mean rising from -2 SD to neutral - certainly qualifies a mode change in the positive direction. I'd suggest be looking out for something a bit more than a needle threader ... I even see signs that the local HC is "deflated" a bit then with ambient heights receded by 4 to 6 dm from the western Gulf to Bermuda after the 10th in some ensemble... that's a table set in my estimating for back off the larger toward smaller scale mechanical interference by way of reducing some of the velocity surplus. Time will tell on that... It's an exciting November folks. We haven't seen one of these in a while... No guarantee that we will get our cinema, no, but... we have 'good problems' as storm enthusiasts for the time being.

Total smear out is certainly still possible ...

I have a question for folks .. heh. Suppose the GGEM goes on and verifies even say 80th percentile ... we do realize, it had this almost identical solution like two days ago when nothing..not even tea-leafs it. And summarily the chortles and castigation "defensively" turned thread pages ... Shouldn't that mean that the GGEM gets the credit for first sniffing this out? God that'd be so delicious; please make that happen so that we can have it do the same thing five days before xmass and everyone has to think about this one -

Again... there was some sneaky mechanics embedded in that 00z GGEM solution that was blooming some impressive QPF in CT-RI-SE Ma despite the primarily ANA characteristic synoptic evolution. You could tell, it wouldn't take much for this model to torque things up a bit. It's like symbolically this type of solution was in there but being capped before -

Yeah, I don't have access to any numbers either.

than what's the purpose of saying in the first place! don't bother -

Not to be a douche but ... is this street cred, or empirical scoring based. I'm not expecting much more than the formal in any social media platform regardless of creed, race concept or folly to be blunt; but no one should take that personally either. But, we hear this mantra about model a, b, and c, and I've frankly, just accept it cause 'every thinks it' - I hate that. I've found there are a few certain scenarios where any one of them might do particularly well ... and auto-86ing based on rep is kind of playground bullying in a way. ha

I'm inclined to think it could be decent - For me personally, I felt an early loaded winter was possible - more so than background probabilities, year-to-year. When seeing the last month play out where the vagaries of all have wended us into a colder than normal pattern in general, that lends; it seems it might be deeper rooted, and thus more than a mere ephemeral pattern look. That could certainly still happen, and we Indian Summer out there beyond week 2...but I suspect the mode of the hemisphere supports this ( again ) such that it might be less likely; but even if that were to occur, we'd probably be looking at down the barrel of a reloaded pattern circa those extendeds. Of course, what does early loaded really mean... I think of it as sustaining enough BN to get a snow pack ... Heh, as an aside, we could be in a pattern that 20 years ago would do the trick, but it's harder to offset the big CC monster these present years relative to the same looks from say ... 1995 ... So perhaps the definition of an early loaded winter needs to shift a little to be fair. Ha.. meaningless metric but interesting anyway.

There is very little scientific or predictive insight likely to be gained from such considerations - almost none. Last year has zero bearing on this next two weeks.

Yeah..that's exactly where I was going with the previous, " As in, they do have improved versions but somehow need that one incrementally layered "... blah blah... Well, it's progress. Hey, did you apply/test your algorithm during that WCB wind event the other day? I was curious how that thing would work in a better mixed quasi barotropic air mass -

This is true ... I mean, not that I was questioning you or anything, just offering that I read the PDF prior to the release and that was clearly stated, that - perhaps beyond the one metric you mentioned - the model was supposed to at least 'not be worse' - which obviously means breaking even. It's interesting operational philosophy there in that ... why? I suspect it's 'platform' -related? As in, they do have improved versions but somehow need that one incrementally layered. Spit-ballin' there.

Upstate NY-VT/N NH 18" on that 00z ICON ...wow. 06z was tamer and well... if one is a SNE enthusiast, that might be your better run

Yeah, I believe you and I discussed this a bit over a month ago regarding the "thermal residence/memory" - this year seemed to smack of some of that if you recall, in that there was a late 'time-relative' occurrence of the 2019 numbers slipping lower than 2012 post the annual nadir. It's always nice when we see other sources corroborating our own observations.

Agreed ... these are " good problems " to have right now. Sort of in deference to the bold, I'm also not convinced the operational GFS is hiding a bigger ordeal out there D8-11 either. There's a amplitude tenor in the operational run, and the time frame in question was so-so HA

That NAVGEM was significantly more amplified 06z and in fact, implicates a conversion to a windier event as it exits; its bombing in that solution. I thought the 00z GGEM might be attempting to tell us something in that although flatter with the baroclinic featuring, it did put down an impressive slug of QPF from CT-RI-SE zones ..so there's bit of mechanical forcing embedded in its overall ANA-like event that's really trying to overcome that compression canvas. Obviously model reputation and caveat emptor applies in both - contrary the Lords and flies, they're not impossible solutions however. In fact, neither is the Euro. I was careful to point out that the flow is stressed. It's velocity rich and so embedded S/W mechanics are less physically capable of organizing cyclogen... Fast moving WAA patterns with comparatively weaker waves embedded that are en masse moving along very fast are favored. So, the Euro run is hard to go against in that sense. Experimentally I was offering that yesterday's Euro run "might" benefit from this system's presence in the flow due to spacial idiosyncrasy, and that might lend confidence to the Euro impacts here ( even though it was D6 for the OV/NE regions ). Seeing this flatten a little ...heh.. not lending to any experimental thinking, no - However, we should be careful to point out that the system is still identifiable in the flow over the time intervals. It's not like it's "lost" in that sense? This was a narrow "needle thread" to begin with, such that minor variations can really make or break. GFS' never had anything other than a QPF blob tumbling through the south, which actually doesn't offer/take away anything considering that guidance' charm at this time range.

For little it's worth the ICON came in impressive at 120 hours compared to prior run

The difference in whether this event ends up being shreaded rad/2"er above a wiper annoyance cold showers, versus a more cohesive cyclogenesis, is going to come down to whether the trough over the Dakotas can start to re-orient its self into more of a neutral tilt by the time the mid levels are nearing the Lakes. If so, we'll have a 998 to 1002 mb type close surface reflection somewhere near SW PA with semblance of a new center itching to implode over S NJ. This could be somewhere in between that, or if the native speed saturation in the flow claims another S/W soldier we'll see instead the southern arc of the trough start to absorb nearing the Lakes as it slopes more positive ...and that lead surface reflection is a blown up ravioli with associated mix and snow shrapnels racing through the OV/NE... Obviously, folks want the former solution. The Euro's not quite into it's wheel house being that this is D5 here... However, in this case we get a cheat insight because the way this thing is situated in the flow means that it IS in the Euro wheel house up there near the Dakotas, where the trough has a bit of a robuster look and that makes for an easier extrapolation. Certainly clearer so than having to wait for the governing mechanics to at last over B.C. So I'm thinking more along the more cohesive ravioli in this case - which, I'm aware that is going to come across as schnitzely, but I can assure you, no buns are necessary. This thing is in the Euro's wheel house over the D's, which in some cases, fast flow ftw! Obviously too early to discuss details

Pretty solid NJ-model cyclogenesis on that run ... About the only way to get it done in that ludicrous speed flow is to do it along a shallow corridor like that...so we'll see.