Typhoon Tip

Mesmerizing in a way ... seeing historically hot thickness plume southern Great Lakes to New England in warm sector, while there is an early season cake fest going in southern Manitoba ...

since we're leveling subjective takes at one another ...today was slightly too warm down our way.. I tapped 86 -

Right right ...I know, and the GFS has been all over that idea - but for some reason people are ignoring it ...

This reminds me of 2011 a bit ...when we had that warm first half of October. I mean, colors are right along with what they 'should be' for that time frame, which adds to it the memory, and the temps being piss warm like they were during those first 10 days back whence. I remember seeing daily TCU on horizons in hazed mugginess to the low 80s on like October 8- 11th or so... Then of course, we know what happened two weeks later - anyway, still stag air at 82 with oblique sun angle hearkens to that -

That's part of my point though that falls out of favor in my mind. The departures haven't been that extreme.... we're still at or greater than 2 below normal - that's it's not adding up to a causal thing. Not from my personal experience. But, it seems your hitting at a special confluence of events that's preceding this - perhaps. Not gonna argue. But I've seen wet sunny summer and cool autumns... The last 20 years, I've never seen color in such wide depthy swaths of foliage in the middle of September. And, I don't really see much evidence in any data that really should demonstratively differentiate this summer from others - though obviously they're never going to be exactly the same. Put it this way... we are "way" ahead ( I think haha it seems..). The differences in data from year to year are comparatively minor to the vastness in timing here. That's what makes it all unsettling to me. hm. interesting - maybe you're right. Some perfect cocktail of well-timed variables and viola.

"... Misplaced practice of granting climate change deniers a visible platform to spout their anti-scientific beliefs was showing signs of yielding to scientific reality ..." It's really, really difficult to do so in many cases, that is, not suppress opinions in a democratic society founded upon the basic principle ( among many others ) of freedom to expression ... Fact of the matter is, despite the ethical virtues, and intentions of the founding forefathers with the 1st Amendment's provisions of free speech ... that ethic was created in an era that was too different to really make the rigidity of it's interpretation as valued in the same way as it was when it was first necessarily formulated ...hundreds of years ago. The reality of our time is one parted company with the ethos/pathos of that long ago era. As an aside, part of the problem with the Constitution, that "bible" of American cultural heritage ... is that it really does not allow the natural process of cultural evolution take place - it stymies that process, a process that is now becoming increasingly more influenced by the entire spectrum of modern science and technologies. These forces have a power well beyond the imagination of those that engineered those principles back whence. This may seem like a bunch of long words,... but I really feel this 'smoldering dystopia' of untenable non-sustainability for Humanity that we're dancing around ... is more than just a climate-based one. And strategies to evoke necessary positive change, should be addressing this bigger sociological pallet of concerns, in how to handle contrived dissension. Yes...there are some opinions that not so much we "think" need to be suppressed, but if allowed to cultivate opinions ( immoral efforts, or ignorant ) would be so detrimental to the very survival of the species ( and countless others...) they cannot possibly be be heard - yet we are hand-cuffed to free-speech. I'm not questioning the virtuosity of that - just the philosophical quandary we've arrive upon as a civility. Hey, that's just as valid - if that's what society wants, to be dead ...by all means, dissension from consensus truths so that people can continue to feel good now - that's name of the game, then. That problem is, no one person should be jury and judge and force the silence of any tongue or pen - so it's a delicate matter. How to preserve the intention of free-speech, in an era where there is no time to educate - interesting dilemma.

Yeah I dunno ... I don't mean to come off as condescending but, I've been around awhile as mid-lifer at this point ... though I cannot hold a candle to Jerry just yet kidding Jer' Anyway, I've seen plenty of summers that were flat cold compared to normal, and they did not precede early color flashing - so, existential... okay, and one person's opinion, not holier than thou by any stretch. But, I don't think temperature has driven this physical response in the foliage in SNE. There may be other environmental causes - actually ...that's obvious. But I mean, 'what' those are - ... Just offering an inquisitive vector having to do with sun. But who knows - maybe there's some thing where every time a hot summer has a single cool snap, will always cause early colors. f -

We're in the 80s south of the NH border... well, low 80s - This is odd, we have color flashing over even healthier maples and some other species along Rt 2. But I've also noticed this over the last week ... down toward Worcester and out along 290 that cuts west-east from I-495 through that city, too. So the observation is a bit more pervasive than merely one's neighborhood. Yet, it's warm now - I realize it was cool for a couple of weeks, recently. However, it doesn't seem intuitively right to me that the preceding three solid months of positive departures must concomitantly mean less, and 2 weeks of above frost chill ( save one morning... ) could come along and drive this kind of physical response in the environment. Chlorophyll break-down, 2-weeks ahead over a one cool spell, after integrating a whole summer of warmth ? Maybe .. I've heard others blame this on temperatures, too ...but I'm not sure I buy that. I wonder if the science isn't exacting as to what really does the triggering. There may be a reality where ( as usual ) science will eventually demonstrate the previous certitude was in fact only 70 someodd% knowing, merely conceited... Anecdotally/obviously, we know that "sick maples" tend to go early - but this is different than that. Whole groves of densely populated canopies are flat f'n red and yellow some 2-or even 3 weeks ahead. What is certain about this stream of conscious vomit ... is the immediate hot-dog mind-set leaping to this somehow being an omen to the winter - but... I don't care to venture there. What I wonder is, couldthe deeply descended solar minimum play a role? We've observed a nearly plain solar disk during the majority time-span between spring until now. I'll tell you ... as an aside, the ozone in the high altitudes rattling around in the on-setting seasonal PV has gotta be wicked and ready for ... whatever it is that sparks off an SSW bomb this time! I think the QBO might even be aligning statistically? We could conceivably end up with a teleconnector convergence in the polarward contributors here. Between the -AO/multi-decadal stuff, and the solar nadior --> SSW connection, either have their weigh-ins, and of course are at least partially subjective. If I was a seasonal forecaster with a ton of ENSO reliance, ...given to the neutrality of the latter compared to the NOT-neutrality of the former, I might consider capitulating to alternate causalities out side of tropical forcing in driving environmental anomalies this year ( to put it diplomatically). Not only that ...but as I've discussed in the past (and still believe), the expansion of the Hadley cell ( which is empirically demonstrated and scientifically reviewed) should be changing the physical ability for the coupled atmosphere/oceanic relationship to force ( as much ); and taht all means the correlations of mid-last Century become dubious. That's a whole 'nother possible invalidator of all ENSO arguments until that can be proven true or false. This has been a -AO summer ... Don S. has statistically pointed out that these tend to reverse during autumn, so there's that to consider... However, I also wonder if that correlation may be relative ... where linearity of the number sets may mask eras where the correlation coefficients breaks down. It intuitively makes a good deal of sense to ask that question, because... let's think about this for a moment: How often does the multi-decadal AO curve happen to time with a super negative solar minimum? Answer: Obviously, that concurrency is rare ... So, are we evaluating -AO summers based on the general longer term number sets, or ..are we breaking those down into 'temporal quadrature' and analyzing this as a 2ndary sort of derivative - because it seems to me, this is a candidate for a unique(er) summer-autumn-winter transition. I would be interested to see if -AO summers --> + AO autumn/early winters during the tandem of all these negative enforcers - and since good luck finding them in history .... I dunno - I just get the feeling that it's more uncharted waters this go. We may end up with Hadley bloating compressed against suppressed jet latitudes/-AO... which would give rise to more in the way of speed surplus in the balance geostrophic wind. Did anyone stop and wonder/ask why so many land-speed air velocity records have been being set by the commercial airline industry over the last decade's worth of winters? Relax ...relax.. I'm not suggesting any violation of one's 'snow entitlement' and/or holding back one's personal dystopian drug quota - ha! We can get fantastic events in fast flows... I just think shearing is higher and storm residence ( how long it persists in one location ) may be down.

First day of autumn by the other calendar is of course Sept 21; yet this particular years orbital eccentricity has that actually on the 23rd - interesting. And that happenstance is concurrent with a summery weekend underway, and so we have added to summer's lease both symbolically and properly.

If the EPS is right we shatter records... tough call - the Euro operational has been flip-flopping between a look more like the EPS's last steadfast three cycle inferno vs more what has been taking place all summer with that abutting shunt from the NE, which isn't therefore easily dismissible

heh good one

Three bombs and 0 chances..?

Mm... not necessarily ? Typically ... cyclones that remain weaker, are shallower systems ( structurally in the troposphere ) and can ... "evade" early steering so to speak. But, there have been plenty of systems that make the trek and dodged weaknesses in the ridging, too. Ideally what we want so see happen as hurricane enthusiasts is not to have 2019's hurricane season -

mm... not always - not imho that is. That introspection piece/op ed isn't an exoneration - the ending morality is paramount. It's how we respond that's paramount. Not sure exactly what you meant but, if by that as always, we intend to mean, we can just figure it out when we need to? no - it's entirely plausible such a future is insurmountable, and as untenable as it may be it is in fact a future that could no longer include the footprint of our species. I will say though - the "intellectual force" is the most powerful one of life that evolution has ever managed to create - and because of that, there is uncharted waters. But that's not a reliance - not even close. It could fail - the tragedy would knowing that and not flouting opportunities to stopping it. My present fear is that ...we could know it, and still be powerless to stop -

I just think persistence is the way to go here - and by that, I don't necessarily mean the dailies so much as I mean that by 'pattern concept' The idea of ridges bloomin' away in extendeds getting corrected by ablation/troughing plumbing S through the Maritimes ( albeit down stream -NAO attributed or not...) hasn't shown any signs of stopping - until it does, all big warm ups are heretofore auto-suspect until further notice ...heh. ...and by 'big warm ups' I mean these three and four day stints at +15 to +20 a pop... nah, sorry folks - if you're a warm weather enthusiasts, this model's been been a COC-tease all year and it's still trying to goad you. ahaha That said, we may end up 'above average' ...but standard seasonal stuff..

It did Forky' ...but it's been doing this all summer, and then the "big heat" - relative term post August 25th or so... - never materializes. It's been annoying actually - it's like the antithesis of the D8 permanent historic bomb fixture of the old Euro wagon days, only in the summer with heat domes. But it's complicated, because the models are not seeing the penetration/re-establishment of the Maritime trough/blocking at times, and when they slip that they paint these whopper hot signals... BUT, then, "OVER" correct the other way when they latch back on... So it's more like relative error in that sense ?

A conceptual question I've oft coveted about the anthropomorphism aspect of AGW, is how "natural" vs "unnatural" is that in reality. You know, whatever we do as a species .... is natural. Quite logically, any process of Nature must then be causal in the changing nature of the natural setting and on and so on. Thus Nature cannot create something unnatural. That may seem obvious reading that in short, terse turns of phrase, but it still is an important distinction that tends to get lost in the dogma of environment lobbies, this, that, and/or the general conscientious voice. Plastic, as anathemic as it's becoming... isn't really unnatural at all. Look if we wanna call Plastic, global warming, death-zones of the seas... etc, etc, secondary, tertiary, or quaternary harmful consequence of something Nature did, that's fine and perhaps we should define them more proper to real math. Any decision we make as an entity-force as entity-forces created by Nature, is a natural force. Sorry - anything else is delusional. Yes yes we all get it, but why does that matter? Well...for starters, there are tendencies to improperly conflate factors that are incorrectly derived/defined when semantics, particularly those of incendiary rhetoric etymology is the primary conveyance; and also, culpability is a miss-assignment of blame. It disenfranchises when considering that Nature put us here in all our glory, an organism so advanced technically. It's a fair question - what really is and is not our fault... Ah, one that may be answered through morality? Because once one's detriment is revealed, to persist along that same course becomes a moral hazard. Before that happens, however ... hint hint hint: no one has ever won a debate insulting people. That's what the shimmering brilliance of the Environmental/scientific community didn't understand in their art of diplomacy decades ago, when they introduced this whole crisis 'all people are asshole' snorting pigs ... They disenfranchised Humanity in a lot of ways by impugning the same "rights" to do what Natural evolution gave them the capacity to do. It set off a sociological ramification that I believe we continue to fight today. But that's speculative. Define a catch-22: Nature endowed its self with an unstoppable ways and means to remove its self. Ho, what a fantastic irony. There's an intriguing premise for a science fiction novel, "The GAIA experiment: the kill-switch chronicles." Holistic muse aside... this may also be related to why deep field cosmological fields of research don't readily see the Universe twinkling with the after glow of all these super advanced species. Too few over pass this test. Leading geologic and paleontological sciences purport plenty of evidence that during the Dinosaur's apex reign circa 250 to 65 Million years ago ... there were extended periods with no icecaps. In fact, there are fossil remains of tropical flora above the 60th parallel, and that's also factoring in tectonic drift, too. Life flourished until the either the Chicxulub, or a cocktail of events including that fateful comet or asteroid teamed up an end the Mesozoic era. It's not a question of whether life can survive an ice free world - the problem is rate of adaptation that's the killer. Pangea broke apart over millions of years and as the climate shifted because of resulting changing circulation patterns, air and sea, along ( probably ) with eccentricities in the Earth's orbit, taking place spanning millions of years. Human kind evolving the ways and means to liberate in just 500 to 1,000 years what took this planet some 3 billion years to sequester, and that is reactive Carbon, that is a Chicxulub event for all intents and purpose. Ahh...but we have this thing called morality - morality is based in no small part on an unconscious, yet ubiquitously accepted knowledge ... no, scratch that. Let's call it an 'ability', within the mentality of responsible sentience ( not everyone...) to project results of addition and subtraction to the vitality of scenario, and weigh the cost of ending consequences. There are probably an innumerable ways to define morality, but one thing most would likely agree upon is that it is the existential result of the individual having matured through necessary stages of success and failure, reward vs punishment, pain and pleasure...etc, as they grow to understanding how their own actions parlay cause and effect as these related to the former, and on and so on. The problem of AGW ...isn't a question of whether it is Natural or artificial ... it's a question of evidence and observable cause and effect - one that awakens the morality. By the time the evidences become that clear, it may be too late to stop the crater.

It's snowed in 10 Octobers since the year 2000 with a +AMO ... It snowed 3 times in the previous 30 years in New England with a -AMO... Next -

mm hm ...don't be surprised either. I don't know if I buy the D6 thru 10 Euro at all. It was supposed to be that way from tomorrow through next Tuesday but this look has been blunted back to more seasonal anomaly as opposed to the rampant heat. I've been elaborating how ridges keep lobing over NW-N of us and causing this weird 500 H "tuck pattern" manifested below as tendencies of high pressure N and llv easterly anomalies into the upper MA and NE regions. It's kept our summer tepid ( though above normal...) and out of the headline heat for one, but it is repeating signal and I have seen those Euro heat ridge looks on too many occasions to count in that sort of time range ...and invariably the consecutive runs start lobing over the heights again .. We'll see - but that aspect you note above, ... it may not be exactly the same idea but it's a cousin to it... Hopefully it parlays into the winter... but with differences needed. I was musing to my self yesterday that this would be a horror pattern in January... We'd have bone-cold N drift molasses and no storms interminably and I have seen that sort of look set up in winter before.

The "lensing" that goes on is fascinating - really ... couple of days of 60s with a shot across the bow feel, and there's a tenor shift right on queue and it's palpable. Next Wednesday after 3+ days of nearly +18 jammed into the dailies and a sensibly polarizing feel, it'll be interesting to watch as the atmosphere reverses in here, too. Is tonight a frost chance? I wonder if places like Orange Mass. Maybe the interior bogs of SE zones... typicals in general. Remember, we can car-top at 37 .. 38 if the wind is dead calm. Although it may not on the ground in that sort of marginality. I could see the DP rising to meet the temp somewhere in the low 40s, then...dew out to 38 with 'soft' sponge frost on some car windows. I've been very proficiently radiating here in the Nashoba valley the last few mornings. In fact, I've seen 10 F jumps from down here in this valley as near by as 190 S junction at Rt 2 ... It was 44 the other morning here at my drive way, and 59 on the 290 E bound hill coming out of Worcester ... I'm think my driveway at dawn is a candidate for the first ... but, it could also be 41 stall - lots of green left out there.

It's interesting how some years ... maybe 1954 and the like, it's so easy to cinema an event on the EC ... it probably even seemed that way during those seasons. Like, 'normal' or something. But this year? Sprayin' 'em out of the tropics yet you can feel safe and secure in the notion, even complacent, that God would actually fail if he wanted to make that movie -

I've noticed a defined tendency on either side of the anomaly dial for that... The latter mid/extended range pattern biases normalize - that's not unheard of as modeling shenanigans go. But this lost heat, or scaled back cooling, as they have been coming into nearer terms, has been particularly coherent all summer, actually. I distinction I can only wonder if will continue observable as we head into fall.

may be the last time the -PDO/-AO/-EPO arc has much say at our latitude ...these next 10 years...

GFS actually has a kind of "Imperfect Storm" deal going on S of NS out there over 48 hours... Takes Humberto and injects/capture and then clearly baroclinically implodes heights at the same time it has Hummer's residual core trundling around inside of it like a golf ball in a dryer cycle.

Yeeeup .. Looks like we got the next two CV misses lined up on the old assembly line ready to twist on up and model faux mpacts on the EC for another five days worth of lives stolen from local poster hopefuls...