Typhoon Tip

I've always known this... You just don't like it when I've taken the temerity to point it out... by choosing to get defensive about it -

Risking getting involved in this further ... ( ) .. j/k, but I think the importance of this study is at risk being lost in the din of discrediting ... notwithstanding the veracity of the discredit effort. I repeat: not challenging that veracity! Focus and attentions spans are exceedingly brief in this day and age, and getting briefer. Our lives are inundated with so much data, too much so there is no means to organize/vet it appropriately (as a plaguing problem actually). Thus, consequentially people tend to see a headline, ...if they read or even catch a zephyr that there may be a contrarian disputation, they move on. ... They may even be at that social gathering at some later time, and have the audacity to those glimpses into, "...I was just reading that's bull crap..." Heads nod in reply, "Yeah...there's soo much fake news." Virtue ... lost. This is a situation in dire need of not moving on. And that's directed toward every consumer soul on the planet, save those that are truly, purely preindustrialized ... As individuals, we change our demand around an awareness scope, the integral takes care of its self ...not you personally - I mean the royal you. Anyway, the atmosphere is heating up... The oceans (intuitively) would gain energy in the coupled state, as you and other's are posting data to point that out. Since that is the case, that is a bad bad place to play games. You/we ..the world is poking at a sleeping demon of global power, and everything we covet as a species,...possibly including our very existence, requires(ed) the worst of that monster remain just a snore. It's not a very difficult science fiction novel to imagine crossing a thermalcline threshold of no return until the entire biosphere is vanquished in lieu of a fresh, scrubbed slate to make a final go... before the sun increases luminosity in all wave-lengths by another 10% and effectively closes the final chapter on Earth as a life creator. ...talking the next billion years of course, so much fantastically incomprehensible time that it really comes down to whether we want our species to last sooner or later.

Not sold... The three month trend is rife with faux leads of big warm ups in the Week 2's + and they're having trouble verifying. The big one to end Novie and wring in Dec is now no longer than a mere warm sector push that's all of a 36 hours. I need to see that present sort of era scaled verification tendency show a different error before I bite on this next warm up... Like I was saying to Will or whomever that was, it almost strikes me as a pattern "lost signal" more than a real one for pattern change (or even relaxation).. If it comes to pass that these latter attributes reign correct, than Ok - my feelings won't be hurt but I need more than what I'm seeing. Granted, the teleconnector hard numbers as they stood, as of yesterday morning, were flagging a PNA flatline, along with the break-down of -NAO .. But, as far as the American cluster, they also contained a 7 day stint of -EPO... beginning 3 to 5 days and ending near Dec 5 or 7th ... Moreover, the EPO handling tends to falsely rise in the extended... I've noticed this more often than not, in past recent winters (going back some 5 year's worth) ...where a -EPO always slopes toward neutral or even positive, but subsequent nightly processing lowers each daily values gradually. Supposition at this/that point in discussion, but I'm willing to take a flyer on the length of this EPO. FWIW, the Euro swaths a ginormous mass of loaded, sub -20C air in the 850 mb products growing in mass from D7 thru 10 of the operational, which is a pleasing fit for a -EPO interval. I'm a fan of cross-guidance hand-shakes... such as the GEF's sagging the EPO while the operational Euro cold loads Canada. Pattern may (or may not) bring that mass down in modified forms and intervals, but that cannot be ascertained at this range... particularly when the Pacific is a mess and lacks a coherently canvased wave spacing. But should Alberta-western Quebec - Nunavut size mass of < -20 C 850 air pan out... you can't feel comfortable going balmy at this proximity to that hemispheric circumstance ... We've been beaten over the head in recent years why the EPO is probably the more important November to early April factor in mid latitude, temperature anomaly distributions... Someone may read this and get excited for winter? don't! I'm not here claiming cryo Hades on Earth ... I'm just saying that I'm not impressed with the recent verification so far on extended warm ups, and given that, and some of these modeled fields.. I have decent enough reasons to doubt December is really anything at this point.

Oh ..this is a support group, period. Really, may as well meet on Tuesday nights from 7 to 9 pm, where people raise their hands and discuss their addiction. Truth be told, there are strict forums out there where the contribution is purely analytic/theoretical, and is borderline referee-able right out of the type. The climate in those is about as chilly as the collective here wishes the winter is... Content changes relatively infrequently, with gaps in participation extending weeks at a time. And much of it is unreadably dry We are not that, here. By the way ..the 18z GFS is remarkably cool profiled for that deal next week, particularly when factoring in it's whopper BL warm bias - speaking to the NE forum folk. That's a flat wave snow if ever there was one modeled... But, it just one run.

yeah all that.. 'cept you said, "The real peer review process happens after the research is formally published..." no comment - my original sentiments were around not trusting the Internet sources. To that ...the sentiment is hugely justified. everything is dragging the discourse into a direction I didn't even wanna go.

This contains some useful info - ...also, discusses that it will be in parallel with the GFS in mid December ... which technically right now it is not. The entire doc this comes from is posted by NOAA ... it's over the 9.7+ mb file size so I can't post it here.

yeah... and "progressive" can come in a couple different meanings, too.. Like, 'too fast' or 'too far east' are both encapsulated in progressive bias; but they have different causes.. They're likely subjective (physically influencing...) one another, but, looking at snap shots of D8's and 5's and 3's ... a system being corrected gradually west could be slowing down across successive model runs as much as the model being too stretched in the west-east coordinate. blah blah ..

Nnn no.. science evaluation of others by accredited officials in/or of the same discipline is supposed to happen prior to a paper describing the work is then published/journaled. That's the standard refereeing intent. Your word choice is stating things backward? Bet that as it may ... even if it just sort of "got lucky" (or unlucky) in that it slipped through the cracks in the process -... okay. But, there is definitely a tendency to "rush" these studies out now. That part is pretty clear as a cultural modality. The fact that the entire publication industry did not benefit by the proficiency of the modern Internet, ...in previous generation, it is not a huge intuitive leap to see how that may have actually helped prevent spurious releases of inflated results. To put it nicely... Interesting. It's as much a sociological concern...

In any case... the current perf monitoring on the FV3' discusses that it does have a progressive bias in the middle range ... to which next week is bit late on that but within reasonable scope. The 00z Euro was primaried up over the eastern Lakes with another one of these excruciatingly boring pallid commitments to secondary... So, it might be interesting to 'contest' the two, and see if the FV3 goes back west or the Euro comes east...etc...etc

potent Arctic pop careening into the backside too - that system's been flagged for a while... The other models...heh, off and on more or less. The FV3' isn't shy about cold boundary layer systems over this pattern (thus far that I've noticed). Not sure how it is scoring. The model's 'experimental' technically, but is scheduled for parallel roll-out in mid December. That'll be interesting! Get to start making 'official' 'er comparatives.

it's an interesting observation, Jerry - not that you or anyone asked but my hunch is that the MJO was simply not really effecting the flow as much as it would later in the cold season when the gradients everywhere are approaching seasonal saturation, and thus the sources become more "instructive" for lack of better word. The simpler version is that when the gradients everywhere are weaker ... phases of these various indexes come and go with less apparent forcing signatures on the pattern. The steeper gradients of mid cold season have better integration of those forcing sources... November ...could kinda be construed as deep enough ...? It depends, on the season at hand. I think in this case, no. The gradient hasn't yet been very focused despite some recent Canadian/NP-GL-NE cold anomalies. I'm seeing a lot of fragmentation of L/W spaces and difficulty smoothing the Rosby constructs around the hemisphere still... Warm season vestigial hang-over perhaps... As for the MJO ... the WPO is positive and strengthening ...that is a tamp down on waves emerging in 6 --> 7 and onwards, and so as this MJO tries to punch out of oblivion in 8, it may be encountering some larger scaled destructive interference. I've long argued that the MJO's significance was conditional more so than instructive over the years, more of a modifier. What that means is, if the surrounding atmosphere supports its presentation on the flow, it may come out gang-busters and soar around the phase diagram at altitude. Then of course a big bomb does a megalopolis job and it's all the rage ...MJO, yay! But, when the surrounding medium is not, you get this meandering at low amplitude or tamp down inside the coherency envelope like we're seeing now. Granted ...this is all theoretical tipisms ha

Yeah...I just used the entire cinema of that to launch a diatribe... I wasn't frankly very interested in reading much further into Bluewave's original post as the content seemed theoreticaly dubious out of the gate. Considering the specific heat of water is several orders of magnitude greater than free Terran atmosphere, I stopped ... heh. For obvious reason at 60% of one's eyeballs popped out of head. Then, I saw Will's newspaper article from some ' Tribune' I never heard of and lost patience with the whole thing. You're probably right - but, it escaped me because it didn't matter. I wanted to bitch ahaha

irrelevant to my points. Like I just pointed out to Will... the issue taken is with the uselessness of the web in the first place. I'm not vetting the Princeton scientists or the the counter-point. The standards for review and release are eroded almost as badly as people brazen immorality to use the web for their own agenda... But, it is what it is...

No... if your responding to my comments ...my gripe is focused on the general erosion of usefulness of the "information" ... and Internet. Like i said, the correspondence between Princeton and this other guy may be entirely useful/necessary, but ... why are we here, yet again. I also noted, that the "standards" of review and release is also eroded, as being indirectly part of that. It almost seems the internet needs to be partitioned ... gates where one enters vetted, vs the rest of it as caveat emptor. It's kinda sorta like that? but ...by and large, it is not.. and it almost is creating a secondary cultural movement toward breakdown in trust in anything ( I might add... different rant heh) . Dark and deceptive...

It's annoying... just how eroded the trustworthiness of the Internet has become. You know, it more than merely seems, the early Internet days were awesome... So much so that people didn't dare douching it down with their agenda - that level of brazen corruption was probably as much requiring time to evolve, as it might have been predictable to occur, too. And here we are. You could trust a information you read circa 1998 on the web, much more so than now...It's like the corrupters have put us back to dark pre-Internet days. By submerging the Internet in falsity ...it defeats the purpose almost entirely. And it's in here, too... You come in here, ...someone puts up an excerpt and/or linkage to some interesting paper, and UP! immediately... we got to wade through counter-point rangles that are less like science and more like "I hate GW and therefore need to dig up anything," in order to abase. Meanwhile, only obfuscating fact and truth that much more...because the real sufferer is that the counter-point! It may in fact be entirely valid. ..either way. And that, right there, is the particularly egregious annoyance: The general populate/consumer/user doesn't have the time. Science is supposed to purpose truth; the Internet invents a new science, to prove there is actually science . Vet the vetters? give us a f'n break with the Internet. Waste of goddamn time! It may be that the back-and-forth between the Princeton scientists and this mathematician is entirely useful, but the aforementioned gripe ... it's probably indirectly related to sloppy publication practices/immorality of the same ilk. Meanwhile, real truth gets bought and sold, both figuratively and literally, behind the scenes... It's like the whole specter of informatica becomes a plied distraction while those transactions conveying cogency are being carried out between sources, ...and we aren't really part of this latter consortium. Oh, we'll get the truth...when our crops fail... the ocean overtakes Washington D.C., Boston, Miami... the Philippines ... Or not... we'll never know, we'll we!?

Any debate of modern industrial-based societies of the world that ultimately roots to Environmental concerns has a fascinating stigma associated with it: The heat of the vitriol is ultimately driven by the intangible nature of the threat, not really the threat its self. To make sense of that paradox think about these statements: Tell someone a train is coming, they bide time; that same someone actually sees the train? Hell yeah! They'll step off the track with no argument and with the greatest expediency imaginable. That is the problem with GW, it has no visible train. The "specter" of Global Warming and all the intrinsic catastrophic train cars of consequence... they are only now just beginning to measure. Prior? There really were no, or very few ... certainly not enough actual corporeal forms to shut up those that need to have their mouths closed. All you (the proverbial you..) offer them instead of their present way of life (or chance to find one..) is to abstain from their ability to have that life. Think about that... not going to end well for those attempting to warn of anything that blocks that goal, not when they can't see the train. And so... the problem with this is there needs to be a new PR campaign that is revolutionary - if Nature isn't kind and gentle enough to do so in smaller doses... Which (ironically) it is, if we choose to look and heed to the signals... but that's also consistent throughout humanity's history. From Pompeii ignored rumbling, to the ancients warning the future through fictional works like Noah ... the disaster has to happen before people see the virtue of the warning.

The Finite­ Volume Cubed-Sphere Dynamical Core model.... lovingly referred to as the "FV3-GFS" ... is simply not interested in a warm up through D15 in the 00z run ...for how little that's worth. In fact, it blue bombs us D9 and threatens a dynamical arctic powder poof three days later, while the EPS and GFS are stringing endless 1" transparent QPFers west of NE. 06z was less winter optimistic but we still definitively colder overall. Interesting... granted, this is experimental

... funny. It's like we gotta have gerrymandered sub-forum regions based upon ethos...

I'm secretly coveting a hope that it's stays bad ...right through until next May... It would assist in helping to drive points home to a collection of minds that are apparently homeless. But that aside, I was just saying to Will in the other thread that there's some chance the pattern look of mid Dec is false -

Got to be honest... the American side of that is not looking good for winter enthusiasts... In fact, .... bad may be apropos. Not sure, though, if this isn't just some artifact of a 'lost signal' more so than a legitimate one? What I mean is, in the absence of coherent physical presence/pattern drive in these guidance tools, they sort of flat line and tend to zonal ... which tends to precede ridging as a beta function result. .... Hyperbole ... but, before December deliberately attacks Holiday dough eyed innocence with metaphysical forces because said forces derive pleasure from watching people's misery ... the EPO (American) is still sagging a bit negative. That's a bit quixotic in my mind (adds variability that could offset). As an index, particularly in nominal warm ENSO, anything of Pacific origin might intuitively bias +PNA ... These indexes sometimes have to 'emerge' in time in that regard, not showing candycane looks like we'd rather be drugged with.. In the meantime ...the D9 /10 operational Euro has a deep syrup dump over the western/central Canadian shield with ... I think I saw -32 C at 850? yikes... It's quasi agreeing with the GEFs -EPO in having a ridge axis poking up NW of the Alaskan sector, and that does precede said loading. So at least before D13 ...that looks doesn't really extrapolate and might just be a stability clue when including the underlying hemispheric canvas of parameters - dicey... So...taken fwiw, there may be conflicting signals there.

Why not ? fire it up ... There may be some sort of left-over hesitation due to a kind of 'unspoken' sensitivity where NNE is a different region, but you just gotta think of the whole region as one identity. So you start a thread - title it something like, "northern regions' snow storm" ...and probably, the southerns won't post a whole helluva lot - that's just the way it goes. This isn't an analytic hobby - oh there's some of that from time to time but by and large, this pass-time is a support group. Ha. true though ...

How does "Blue Hill" mean "the Boston area"?

The NAM was interesting at 850 mb in its handling of the thermal layout. Initially there is warm bulge arcing up toward New York State, cutting SE over SNE... As the primary low slams into a hemispheric instructed stall over the southern lakes, the ensuing charts indicate pallid attempt at a secondary. I don't necessarily argue the weakness or strength of the secondary, however, I am noticing that right around hour(s) 36+ the warm bulge abruptly erodes back, hmm... with holes also "punched" through it. That behavior in the kindergarten water color activity hour is indicative what you know (...just pointing it out..), and in the past ...turned out sneaky portentous in hindsight. 1 ... the fragile nature of the warm bulge. It's not deep. And above it, the growth region of the sounding across N PA and NYS to SNE/CNE is likely cold enough - height falls associated with secondary might be in question (underdone) by just that crucial amount. For operational Mets ... that's headache hour. 2 ... hygroscopic cooling in the 850 mb layer (saturation to wet bulb) is ending up right around 0C. Therein is a problem with that entire evolution from ..really the backside of today thru 70 hours. This system today isn't helping like a system escaping traditionally would. It's got very little backside CAA going on... such that the critical sub 700 mb thickness intervals are tepid. It makes the secondary interesting (for me), in that we've seen dynamics in the past do wonders N of NYC latitudes from roughly mid Novie's onward. Climate arguments aside (have to look at each situation uniquely), that 850 mb thermal modulation described above, ..that tells me that radar at the time will be "fuzzy" regardless of what it is doing in the obs. Here's the thing ... in years past I could always count on marginal columns in autumn and spring tend cooler when observing that erode back 850 mb thermal dynamic. That's how you get 'blue bombs,' particularly when impetus to warm above the boundary layer is terminating. The lift at mid levels then QPF into column left naked to the N. At this time range, models (some more so than others...like he GGEM) always tended to cold rain, correcting toward isothermal blue like ... < 30 hours from the event. I don't know about present era modeling though, wrt to that specific study - if they are improved in accuracy for marginal looks that "could" modulate isothermal. The other aspect is that there is a sneaky Maritime rise in surface high pressure, as the isobars subtly bulge backward toward the WSW, N of Maine. That retrograde look is really the -NAO exertion overall. It may not supply 'cold' per se, but... it sort of backs us into wondering if the primary latitude is handled perfectly ... I've also seen primary's as recently as within the last five years of modeling ...correct S when there is -NAO-like train-wreck mechanics in eastern Canada. Euro is notorious for that ... or used to be, probably a vestige of it's "too far SW" olden day bias it used to have. So, ... meh... if this thing ends up correcting (or not) and/or surprises blue ...wouldn't be shocked.

I'll tell ya ... that polar wave passing from the eastern Lakes through NE ..72-96 hours is what really kicks the NAO pattern into motion. It really nukes and gets exotically deep at all levels and that flow around the top side S of Greenland starts piling up the heights in response. That said, it's probably more a feed-back cuz the hemisphere is trying to be blocking - this system encourages that along.

Anecdotal/symbolic content follows, but ... First it gets warm, then it gets cold - boom! That's the adage way things go. Holistically, a warm up near or shy of 'Giggedy, then turning colder sets stage, because the colder incursion thereafter tends to" overcompensates" ... and the ensuing correction nest(s) the event(s). If you think about it ... that intuitive model is really just backing into the H. Archembault statistical method and conclusions therein, whereby it is shown that index modulation/inflections are when/where larger scaled precipitation anomalies take place. It's really one in the same conception-wise. Anyway, ...I still see a very interesting winter signal for the last week of November onwards, as I'm sure others probably do as well.. Hard to say if a preceding warm up... magnitude and transience notwithstanding, would related to that in sort of a 'sloshing' hemisphere, but, I like the look of the PNA spiking months end with an EPO that is also going the other direction. Meanwhile, the AO/NAO are both tanked! Having said all that...it's tough really buy-in when the operational model runs are outside the wheel-house of even seeing it. They may (more likely not...) show events and dailies that fit that complexion until such time as something is legit and latched onto - ... there's also 'tweener' systems that can happen, which today's ...really was of that ilk.