Typhoon Tip

Slow day at the office allows time to bounce around the web here and there.... I happened across this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eastern_Canadian_blizzard_of_March_1971 Thing is, ...I don't recall that winter being exceptional south of the border. Which is interesting ... considering how nearby eastern Canada is to the Lakes-OV-NE corridor(s)... There were some stem-wound systems up the upper MA/NE coasts (I think.. ), but 'wonder where '70-'71 really ranks. It's sort of an amusing play on the 'IMBY' phenomenon meme that from the old Eastern days... and how that phenomenon extends to relative scales, too. Like, we probably think of that winter as above normal snow and cold... solid performer.. and swear by that - or not. Point being, it would be based upon entirely, one's own experience(s). But, in a large scoped scientific analysis, that could be the biggest winter ever for "eastern N/A" when integrating all geographies. fascinating -

Mm, not sure ...it's an interesting thought. I'm not sure what the residence rates is vs turbulent mixing ..vs rate of radiation 'trapping' in the total model of the atmosphere is. Obviously, we are just making conjecture here based of varying levels of informed background, but sufficed it is to say, that is a complex set of governing relationships to answer that implicit question. Some aspects we do know... Like, C02 in concentration is heavier than regular homogenized Terran atmosphere. It pools in low places ..etc. That does lend to an assertion that the ground sources may 'collect' C02 ...at least for awhile/some sort of time dependency, until some form or another of turbulent mixing can 'over-turn' the deep layer troposphere and bust open any said/such pooling masses. C02 pooling famously occurred near Lake Nyos, Cameroon in Africa... I think it was the mid 1980's just while typing here... But that lake had been 'capping' huge stows of C02 in the bottom layers, where pressure exerted by water had stopped diffusion through the water column ... The system became unstable. No sooner did the nearby volcano (which is/was thought to have loaded the lake in the first place at depth plumbing) send tremors into the water column and it overturned, sending the C02 in huge plume(s) to the surface... where it immediately pooled at specific weight greater than the surrounding ambient atmosphere... Then it of course 'flows' like water to the lowest point it can find ... where, sadly, an entire village was sleeping ... for ever, because of that. That is an extreme example of C02 at mass not immediately dispersing into surrounding air... Don't know about smoke stack, automobile and power generation sources in general, though ... But it does seem worth it to consider, because en masse ... these sources might outpace the background physical processes that mix the atmosphere. Interesting... Whether these facets would effect model processing ... I couldn't begin to fathom. Firstly, we'd need to know if these ancillary physics are even part of the base equations.. We didn't learn Navier Stokes for differentiating atmospheric chemistries... PV=NRT ... doesn't care really what goes into the "N" term.. but the "R" constant might for subtly differentiated quantities of a less than totally homogenized gas column.

Perfect! hahaha ... fixed see people, this is why it is of paramount importance that publisher's employ effective editorial teams ...

But ... didn't we have an above climo snowy Novie ? With a near or at historic cold wave to boot? Maybe our standards are a little high, huh - hahaha. I know what you mean though ... As fun as those were, things could have been even more entertaining for the immortally wounded winter weather enthusiast. Yeah... but, that's sorta true in every favorable pattern - or their antithesis .. isn't it? Something seems to always get left on the field. A couple ducks fly away even when the hunter spins a Gatling gun... Sometimes even the biggest fish (damn) squirts away before the stick of dynamite- but you gloat in belly-uppers anyway. It's like thresholds of entertainment ... once the orgasmic fervency gets above a certain glow ... we're blinded from seeing what we've missed. Anyway, not sure if/how to parse out being grateful vs feeling jilted by the last month buuut... I really don't. I don't feel the latter, at all... In fact, my private covet at this time? If we had a 60 F f'n Xmass ...I wonder if that would only neutralize that whopper single digit Thanks Giggedy... But ooh, we'll opine and bitch like it's been demonically divined when we go for surreal walks under cobalt blue swashed cirrus skies, in shorts and t-shirts just before turkey hits the table on the 25th... Care of Jerry ...or, "Chinese"

What is this ... 'bowling season' ? I see that all the time ... circa early Aprils. The 500 mb delivereth unto the flow 'neath the 40th interval, a four or more contoured closing low, and it trundles and bores its way through the flow ...All the while, one might be visualizing some deep canyon in the surface pressure as outlined by concomitant dart-board assortment of isobars ...only, whaaa? What gives! The low is comparatively not there... only some pallid reflection of the galaxy above. What's going on in Aprils ...is that the mid troposphere is still sending cold plumes into the levels, over middle latitudes ... However, the surface "ambient" baroclinicity and gradients therein ...are normalizing because of the ever increasing solar incidence. Without those lower gradients ... frontal slopes down extend as vertically in the atmosphere. Thus, the restoring jets (exit-entrance mass-conservation...) weaken; thus, don't induce as much rising motion in the atmosphere. With less overall UVM,...that requires less lowering surface pressure. For others ...that means, weak storm What looks like a big big bomb is often vertically (or approximating...) a "vertically stacked" structure where the pressure pattern is nearly (usually wobbling around nearby) collocated within the axis of the closed or quasi-closed low ("quasi," means 'sort of ') ... because it is still moving along with the general trajectory of the L/W propagation of/through the general circulation medium, albeit significantly severed. Quasi is term that is often floated to describe atmospheric phenomenon for any youngin's who have been dimmed by the e-zombie plague and haven't yet reported for 'droid CPU refit and upgrades.... Everyone else ... knows what I mean. Anyway, it's odd to see that now, as the season's aging toward middle December ... It's anomalous per my own observations to witness waning gradients time with a powerful middle troposphere wave over top like that, at this time of year. To be honest... I've seen that more frequently over the past ten years. Granted, modeling is only really just come out of its infancy (despite all awe and conceits), so ... But, I don't normally bring it up. Immediately, it drives me to GW distraction, and of course since being that this is a weather board (and therefore supposedly at least indirectly Meteorological ... ) the temerity to suggest anything like that just has to roll eyes. I mean... the nerve! To mean or suggest that GW can reflect in the dailies at any given time?! Charlatan ... Unfortunately, that's a popularized mantra. Usually, one used to deny, by those who have borrowed from adage, "climate doesn't drive weather; weather drives climate," or trying to sound smart ..or all the above. Truth is... that presupposes ... uh, only blocks the understanding (and truth) that eventually ... as enough GW has happened, you start seeing odd behaviors ... like, spring tapestry in the synoptics of deep winter month. Of course, the knee-jerk impulse keyboard pounder is pulverizing letters upon reading that December is a 'deep' winter month. Either that, or thumb hammering away upon their filthy germ phage phone interfaces ... don't bother. I've seen it in the other months, too, with also...increasing frequency. The rate of said increase is slow, tho. Heh.. As rapid as the present GW is purported to be relative to typical geological changes (presently, ...one of if not the fastest registering change out side of a comet impact when employing Paleoclimate sciences), it crawls along inside of single life spans. ...Otherwise, you're really in trouble... OH wait - Wow, got my self way digressed... Anyway, the summary version of all this is that there is a dearth of cold air lower than the ~ 50th parallel (in general) during the next week to 10 days, and that slacking of cold is (I suspect..) detrimental to cyclone intensities. I don't know if it will last... Not saying anything predictive about it/that.. But, that big deep mid level vortex in the operational GFS and the Euro appears to be floating over top a rotted (as some like to say) lower level air mass. It could change.. In fact, the 06z did try to buckle-up a small spit of confluence NNW of Maine, and send a bit of a cold pulse .. .I mean, point being... we here in SNE are really sore thumbin' it at all times and something subtle and most likely poorly if at all assessing in modeling at this sort of time range ... blah blah.. .

'know...if funny. whenever I catch wind/see that sort of outlier in any situation ... part of me always wonders well... so long as the model actually employs math ...the solution can't be "im"possible...

doesn't look NW as much as it does more progressive... The shield of QPF is just moved along a bit further in doing so, which puts slightly N of the previous fix/interval, but the surface reflection its self is still moving along the same trajectory - this run being few clicks along to the ENE. 'least from what it looks like to me.

Anything beyond D6 in the Euro is extra specially useless...

I've said it a hundred times... just ask. I'm happy to ... wait for it, "paraphrase" ... (oh god, run for your lives!) ... The complaint of writing style ...mm, has some merit - but only to a point? One must be aware of their audience. That's like ... 8th grade English lesson material right there. Beyond failing that, affecting/effective communication begins with that understanding, so is in part (that's in part ) the responsibility of the word smith.

You've been on this for a long while now... props to y'all! I was bit more apprehensive a while back - I recall Will and I exchanging some thoughts, owning to fact that "cool" seemed always "win" over "warm" so to speak, in recent times, and that (at least) for me in the conversation, it wasn't abundantly clear if 'relaxation' might end up morphing into another misty failed 18 to 24 hour warm sector. I think now in retrospect ... we might have started that relaxing/moderating even ten days ago... shortly after the Thanks Giggedy useless cold in the gut. Altho ... I may be douchy there - I was in Va Beach/southern NJ for 10 days so I might have missed if anything did happen from that? Whatever, there may be some semantic interpretation but being 10 F at noon on the 23rd of November ... ya pretty much have to "relax" going forward...otherwise, that would take some pretty exotic rareness, otherwise. But excluding that... the "pattern" that yielded the November snow storm and the cold the week later, ...all of that is a thing of the past, and the present is absolutely a "warmer paradigm," and therefor should be ruled successful as long-ish lead prognostic effort... Considering those last 15 days of last month ... folks can'g get longevity ... etc...this early. And, it is true - we can snow in the overall look now, it's just not ... it wasn't gonna stay like it was anyway so it's all dumb anyway..geez

If there's any usefulness ... https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/full.html

Ha ha. That synoptic overview perfectly describes pretty much the decade of the 1980's. Not every year in that decade, or every pattern therein, no. But that sort of penetrating assault, at times as though designed specifically to abuse the already wounded winter enthusiasts ... was unrelentingly repeating. It really was like the weather was trying to stop people from being weather people. "Okay, 10 F today ... Sooooo... that means it just has to be 30 F tomorrow... ten minutes of sleet Thursday morning ... 1.4" inches of strait 40 F rain by Thursday night... and tick tock 10 F Friday morning, with 38 mph gusts... and like it" Didn't even watch The Weather Channel. No need. Hyperbole of course.. but, that was the first era in my life that I came to frustrate that behavior ... like all the time! I think it's endemic to New England ... We just haven't suffered a season stolen by that antic in recent ...well, decades really. It does seem to happen ...sort of, on a single even or two, here and there, erratic... But, that description is not near the same thing as the 1980's. Clearly, a globular directed pattern persistency. Early life spent in southern Lower Michigan, I don't ever recall that even happening (though if may have...I dunno - once?) The cold concreted Earth I swear was harder than the streets them selves in between the 34F rains ... only to re solidify if dirt even thawed in the first place. ... Over and over and over again. I just sort of realized along the way at some point in time, "It seems like it's always doing that here."

the read may be a little above your ability for reading and understanding the words ... i dunno, but if you really need the simpleton version... you no snow dec 9 maybe sumpin to watch mid month.

Not sure how the tenor is leaning this morning ... but personally, I was particularly interested in these recent overnight model cycles - and have been since Sunday, actually. At that time, the day 4 was depicting the southern component wave mechanics as just entering the more physical soundings, and any amplitude starvation then might then get goosed. That appears to have come, registered, and set sail.. Other's have observed and noted over the last two days that data sparseness at high latitudes would be problematic ... as out in time, any baroclinicity in the deep south/SE would be available ...should those northern sources deliver (supposedly..) the mechanics. Not sure what those thoughts are/how they are basing them ... but my experience over of the years, the N-pole juggernaut correction scenario is more common in science fiction. I don't get the 'feel' that's in the cards here. And with the southern component features of interest now being sampled, they don't appear to be sniffing out 'strong enough' mechanics to do it on their own. Therefore, barring (what I believe would need to be) seemingly almost miraculously arriving factor ...like, pretty much changing the entire circulation construct of this Hemispheric quadrature ... (a.k.a., highly unlikely) ... folding on that Dec 9/10 deal is a safe enough bet. Bluff called... Hey, the upshot? I win either way... I don't give a schit about being wrong, and if it snows somehow, I'm happy just the same ***** There is a new signal. Many are likely already aware. Some others will likely be inclined to chide, given that they are presently jilted by excruciating obsession on fruitless phantom ... and can't wait to pounce. However, maintaining some semblance of objectivity (because... what else have you got?), the PNA at both the CDC and CPC do offer a mass-field correction suggestion out there closer to mid month.. There's no way in the imaginary realms of sanity to even begin to speculate on details ... either way, the general canvas of overly active weather ... being Gatlyn gunned through the mid latitudes over N/A doesn't actually appear to be a pattern we've escaped from ...despite the present lull in activity that's being modeled (save for the S) - and this ending parathetical counts, too!

That is an understatement ... 18 hours at storm maturation quintessentially timed for maximization of impact by positioning when it cuts off crawls a departure... Storm force pulverizing winds bearing some 3 to 5" of liq equiv QPF with temperatures falling through the mid 20s would probably be the biggest storm (including these recent 20"ers ...) to impact in well over 20 years. D9 on any 18z GFS run isn't exactly inspiring much more than interesting curiosity ... no. But the GEFs derivatives have a PNA spike in that time range ...even though every other index plausibly teleconnected to our area of the hemisphere is July looking ... it is what it is...

wouldn't it be funny if this whole mess turned out to be like ...90 % an N/stream deal ha

Boy ... if these things ever had a conscious behind them, this one definitely doesn't want people predicting it i think we left out the 3rd hexagonal gyre over the south pole of Saturn... yeah, that'd real nail it!

Although subtle, there is a bit more total amplitude at 48 hours on this 12z run compared to the two prior cycles for that same time interval. Unknown whether that means much down stream... but, this 12z cycle is the entrance for that relay coming over southern Cali - the first in the series.

Oh absolutely ... that's been part of the advises in recent days, too - not just the pump breaks and try to keep one's undy lumps from jumping out of their flies ... but, we've also been spending time elucidating what needs ...if perhaps "could" take place to make impact farther up the coast more likely. More N/stream earlier in the game would crucial in that (I think..) as you say, a steeper incline west would veer the deep layer over and off the EC ...such that whatever ultimately detonates there would lift up more.. .Plus, the feedback is that it's stronger - I also don't necessarily see the N/stream jet branch that is ESE through Ontario as a negative... pending it behaves of course. The flow in its self is really no different than the southwest arc of a "50/50 low" outlined by DT (also Kocin/Ucellinin) et al over the years... We just see it in the runs now as a L/W axis less a closed big maritime cold transporter - both serve the same sort of purpose. The key there (however) is that it needs to relent .. I've seen those do so like ...four hours before go time on coastals in the past, and then suddenly the shield surges in so it can wait to tape - To your point(s) ... more N/stream perhaps a touch earlier and let's see if we can relay a bit more in situ mechanical strength over southern Cali

The strike-through still somewhat suggests a reliance to find some bigger solution when that happens, and that's not/should not be the impetus ...to do that. Also, if there is a substantive modulation that is destined to take place when these features of importance get physically sampled ... it may actually take a couple.. few runs actually, to fully mutate. These features have dimension in free space ... and take time to pass through grid points ... so it's not going to happen instantly. Sometimes the changes can be seen in shorter amounts of time, sure... but a single cycle is unlikely.

Agreed ... I began emphasizing the assimilation vs physical sounding stuff like four or five days ago -... That's not to toot horn, buuuut, too many posts don't appear to reflect those concepts are in the gears of the individual perceptions and mental processing before they make whatever post they are making. And so, it's not just me ... You, NCEP... Nick, Chris... Scott... repeatedly over and over again becomes a valid mantra that this gunk is coming off the Pacific at shallow trajectories, such that all players really are not in the physical sounding (unfortunately.. ) until some three days lead. I think people need their dystopian and/or drama drug and they channel the models for it.. I often wonder if the model animation movie is more important to many folks than even the event its self - ha. Be that as it may, ... in a situation like this, that "high" of opening the models and seeing a 7 isobar contoured hornet sting on E of the Del Marve with -10C of Logan ...doesn't get to happen for seven straight days of cycles... So it's really quick similar in a lot of ways to perpetuating a withdraw syndrome. Anyway, ...I agree with your implicit suggestion that this may all come together ... late. Boxing Day was a < 60 hour correction if I recall - not an analog in any stretch but just to show. I'm > 90% confident that the posting tenor in the 12 hours just before the come-back began, the nadir in mood in here was just ... fantastically depressing Or not... All this stuff could come into the soundings and it does nothing to modulate favorably...or even less - have seen that before.

Can you imagine the crickets in here from VA to Maine if ...yeah, coastal rain 38 F wind - enters the trumpets: muah muah muaaaaah Phew! good thing all that hand-wringin' consternation got a storm to happen, huh. 'Cept, there'd be that one person that actually appreciates weather for weather phenomenon wondering why no one else's postin -

Very odd look on this Euro run ...in the extended. it's like there are no rosby waves ...just S/W's - not sure I've ever seen a model fail planetary mechanics quite so prodigiously ... heh Maybe that's how the end of the world first turns up... inexplicable Meteorological environmental models that show a giant hole in the head

Hate to say ... still seeing velocity surplus issues with the GFS (and the GGEM too) that is lending to their smearing initial cyclogenesis quickly east and sort of dissecting it from the deeper layer support. The GGEM has a mid level wave mechanical issues in deciding how much so to phase or negatively interfere ...netting a weaker over-all system on this run. The GFS also has less N/stream ... owing to it's straight east out to sea solution; however, that doesn't really fit very well with PNAP/NAO status at the time... Euro may clear things up but it'll prolly have it's own notion on these various fields. December 9-10 is a hot mess!

Like I said earlier ... the GGEM is the only model that's consistently showing much impact this far up the eastern seaboard over many cycles.. this one is no exception. Which may or may not fit in with folks' preferences for deterministic Meteorology ... probably less. Just sayn'.