Typhoon Tip

I wish "the thread" would be shut down on all of society, frankly. Humans are in more dire need of a reset and forced multi-generation 'humility' reality check than any species since the dinosaurs saw a fireball from the heavens. This 'doom-scrolling' is a manifestation of a psychotropic stimulus addition. The same one in peered sciences, showcased in 60-Minutes, and tapped into and used (manipulation) by portable comms industries et al... It's sick. And in the absence of real corporeal threat to survival ...at a kind of instinctual level, humans fill that devoid sense of threat with virtual hostility - Industrialized media has 0 compunctions about sloping and spinning headlines to keep feeding the addicts, too - ... Meanwhile, you look down your street in both direction and the environment, under foot and in the air and sky, are all quiescent ...and there is no simultaneous realization that it is all a delusion of dystopian horror because the herein reality is merely a subset of a bigger truth ...that shit just doesn't happen - it is being constructed by the humanity within a bubble cinema... - it is all humanity doing it to itself. We're talking about the general scope - obviously down at the individual, case-by-case level, people are endowed with hardships... but that's an evasive argument when comparing to the whole. The bell-curve contains a convenience addling mass Stop it! ...the plug needs to be pulled... the batteries allowed to die. Because the evolution of this technology is not serving good - it is serving satisfaction without connection to work, where is how the psychological emergence of virtuosity is engendered.... Virtuosity decays at the onset of convenience - the easier the satisfaction is realized. And that ( digression in-coming) is also a catch-22 ...and why the very same evolution that supplies this particular species with the wherewithal to achieve convenience ...effectively evolves toward its own demise. Think of it this way ... Teenager A: a rich kid is given the keys to a new car. Teenager B: a 'less fortunate' son/daughter... washes cars, mows lawns ... takes a job bagging groceries at the local supermarket on the weekends spanning however long it takes in sacrifices.The two teenagers end up with the same car... Which teenager is most probably destined to heap said car first? Humanity functions on whole, as a macrocosmic analog of those exact same appreciation modeling/'tendencies.' Human species A is given easy access to survival and entertainment... Human species B works very hard and toils to realize those same advantages... Which one ends up in a heap first. It's all related though ... being given anything...be it free cars, are free access to 'dirty laundry' and drama of unfiltered and un-appropriately analyzed non-categorized information ... it becomes unprincipled because human beings do not intrinsically connect value to anything they are given for free - and the advancing evolution that allows humanity to manipulate its own environment supplies successive generations with satisfaction for free.

That is a really interesting synoptic evolution along the EC days 3 thru roughly day 6 ... you kind of have to be an Aspergery nerd to see it but ...that vestigial faux tropical whirl migrating slowly on up ... for lack of better description, "eats" the heat. There is a quasi EML/SW release plume flooding throughout the midriff Ohio Valley and up through the eastern Lakes, NYS and the ST Lawrence...but, the cyclonic whirl - as per the Euro's evolution - is absorbing the 850 mb thermal layout... You fan see it when animating through the frames. It gets weird looking, because day 6 shows that there is still thermally charged 850 mb thermal air left in the wake of the whirl's passing through, but by then there is more of a transient 500 mb deeper layer trough that sets over the NE quadrant... while that heat is still rattling around underneath it. Never seen a 500 mb trough with so much warm air in the lower troposphere.. That's gotta be unstable for one - That has to be a fantastic heat signal in this particular run cycle by day's 9 and 10 tho.. wow. You have a massive heat release there timed under a super-synoptic scaled hemispheric wave length expansion spreading over just about everywhere S of the 45 N between Colorado and NJ/Mass with hydrostatic depths exceeding 594 dm! Unlimited diurnal potential pretty much ...day time highs are limited only by the fact that we have a main sequence yellow dwarf star and at average orbital distance of 93 million miles... otherwise that'd be hell on Earth if that succeeded... During a Pandemic no less ... where's the Bible

He might be right he should’ve just use a different product to elucidate his point… Like I could give that MJO post more credit but the problem I have with that is it the MJO needs to have gradient to transmit wave forcing from the tropics into the mid latitudes and at this time of year the correlations are weak everywhere so I don’t know if that strongly signals that way we are heading into climo heat tho.

That product Erik Fisher uses would not be persistent heat for us it would cause front aftrt front to blast through ablating the heat south would be hot from Detroit to central New Jersey maybe. In his defense he does say much of the country though so as usual we get left out of the party

We had one a month ago in May like this actually vicious thunderstorm came in from the north west like that ... sent a microburst out across the north side of my town and over towards Westford. This seems to be our MO this year

Suspicious… It came right over my town and with a flanking line structure and other lenticulated aspects along the backed edge at sun set Solid performer with sporadic limb damage around town blinding rain and hail and overlapping lightning

NAM has that next BD fisting Monday

I don’t know if you guys have noticed this but we are ‘tucking’ into the mid Atlantic and New England at synoptic and super synoptic scales much more discernibly than we ever used to ...something that started happening more noticeably over the last 20 years but the last five years it’s really gotten bad. This summer with the tutts formulating over the mid Atlantic really is just a function of that folding at the hemispheric scale fascinating really

He may not if this becomes the new norm Frankly I think that we could be seeing more of this kind of stuff because the Hadley cell expansion I think these cut off “ tutts ” that Brian refers to are more common actually because what’s happening is establishing a broader band of easterly trades across the Atlantic and that is stranding wave components in the interface between the H cell and the lower Farrell interface latitudes

Seasonal trend is certainly important… But I think in this next shot southern areas have a chance to pace. But aside from the fact those scalar products for the time frame would offer comparable or even hotter temperature metro west than N Vermont - wed/thu

Oh ha right. might not have been the best elevation example. Not sure but the point stands

Yeah not a contest here… I’m talking about how to interpret those anomaly products; has nothing to do with comparisons and heat trophies. The other aspect to keep in mind is that an 18°C 850 mb of temperature over Burlington Vermont will not be as hot at the sfc as it would be over Framingham Massachusetts because the latter has a denser air mass at a lower sigma surface/ greater compression

At 850 mb? pay attention plus the question regards not now ... mid range.

You guys may want to associate those 'anomaly' products at 850 mb with the actual temperatures at that level, when comparing NNE to SNE... SNE 850 mb climate may in fact be warmer than NNE, where as the anomalies deviations are relative to the climate over that region - if NNE runs cooler, and both regions have the same 850 mb temperature ...the anomaly will appear greater up N. But the anomaly is not associated with the BL heat potential - the scalar value is...

Kind of interesting this morning... I see this alot, where a synoptic scale frontal passage takes place, and it gets "sort of" confused/mottled in with being a back-door ...but it's technically not. The BD actually comes in as a separate near-trailing phenomenon during this sequencing cool back scenarios, ..and as this satellite loop nicely demos... https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Rhode_Island-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined it's a separate entity . These types of BDs are not the same as those that happen alone.

Decent heat wave signal there... and I don't believe that deeper tropospheric mass transport favors NNE necessarily on that ...when blending the Euro with some portion or another of these recent GFS runs.. This 18z GFS version is probably about as hot as this particular model is capable of being ... pretty much day 5.5 through D12 or 13 averages above 17C at 850 ...with episodes around 20... There one day out there with a 582 dm thickness contour closed off from NYC to PWM...with a 99 at ALB and 98 BOS respectively - I'm not sure it confident but it is July.

Yeah that back door is probably a slam dunk given that mid level circulation construct from central to mid latitude Canada down through the Maritimes… Might as well draw the shades and not even look at another weather chart for about seven days if you’re in for the heat and humidity because whatever the sfc pressure pattern is modeled?… if it’s not cold drizzly butt fisting from the northeast toss it That pattern is going to create a mass discontinuity that will slam into the coastal areas east of the appellations and white green mountains 100% of the time. Now if the models are wrong about the governing flow construct ... Put it this way… It’s like you have to correct for more back door front potential and realization given that flow structure where is if the flow flattens up there then we can ease off

That could be a pretty nasty heatwave out there in the extended if that were just to ever so slightly favor more of a polarward transport… Right now it’s really flirting with doing so ... big heat in Chi town either way

yeah...this does appear to be physically transforming into a synoptic type rain ...but it will likely have embedded enhancements and orange lightning ... It's tough though - I'd like to see this thing survive the nocturnal transformation of the ambient tropospheric sounding as it propagates through the eastern Lakes and NYS toward/through dawn.. If so, we get strata rains with embeddeds ... otherwise, the whole thing could be over sold. Either way... no one asked but I like this pattern incoming...Once we sans whatever that is tomorrow, we end up diurnal mid level lapse rates over stranded SBCAPE/Theta-e and we're probably getting cloud photogenics on a daily afternoon/evening diet for days... as far a drought talk I almost never give that much acknowledgment - tomorrow could over produce and we're behind but no drought. We just don't do west -Texas around our geological circumstance -

I remember posting about the increase in Saharan air-layer into the Americas/hemisphere due to HC expansion and the widening jet channel of the easterly trades related to that over the Atlantic Basin ... observable over recent summers several weeks later ... here we are - needs analysis but this historic plume will be interesting to explain why it is happening

Hate to say that it’s probably not going to look that way. It’s more likely what comes down is a leftover mid-level weakness similar to what we just went through where we had heat lobing over the top across southern Canada and weakness to the S evolving thru the mid Atlantic into the Tennessee Valley.

I find it interesting that the GEFs tele's are hot, but the GFS operational is fighting it's own ensemble mean and has been ever since the PNA started tipping negative spanning four night's worth ... It just refuses... So, perhaps this is one of those situations where the operational runs agree and the tele's/ens means then go the other direction - happens ... Yet, the GFS and GGEM operational solutions are just weirdly anomalous with that 'hemispheric tucking' pattern mid/ua/ vortex boring backward toward Pittsburg nearing July like that.. With overarching heights nearing 592 dm over southern James Bay/N of lake superior... I'm willing to sell on this latter synoptic construct and then tone down Euro heat as a compromise?

Definitely feelin' nastier with torridity out there,.. and according to Mesowest/URL sourcing ... DPs are nearing 70 at most ASOS', while temps eclipse 80. KFIT is 84/68 and KASH is 83/70 .. These are 8 deg temp bounces this last hour. Early cu streets are are not showing as robust turrets as previous mornings... Maybe we've finally normalized those lapse rates I was mentioning a while ago :/ was hoping for more cloud photogenetics.. we'll see.

A front limping into the region tomorrow ( Wednesday ...) with (probably) subtle but crucial theta-e pooling along and ahead of it needs to be watched for local training. Sometimes trend in situ an air mass, in this case convection proficiency is up, is useful. We seem to have sufficiently steep mid level lapse rates, producing hit or miss gully-washers despite having been challenged with SBCAPE. Tomorrow's boundary stalls/frontalysis and would likely pool DP, so.. implicating more surface based CAPE up underneath lingering lapse structure aloft might be over producing by some ... It doesn't take much for sensitive triggering and usually once it is pulled, some hapless town/county gets pounded for headline. It's funny ...I was on a bike path doing 25 mile loop a couple days ago, and for about 1.5 mile's worth of distance ... it rained hard enough to gray tint the air with sun shining thru at a slant... I got to the end of the path and looped around to find this skinny glaciated CB with a crispy edge ... and as I headed back down the trail, I punched right back through the same rain shaft... At the other end of the trail, I was seeing the narrow CB that was actually being fed by yet narrower updraft edge, was still festering. Hot and dry at either end of the bike path; and I'm of course soaked to the panty-line with wet shoes and mud on my apparel. I go inside and shower and change and chill on the web for a bit...maybe 30 minutes... head out to the car, and that narrow CB was still festering away over the same region of space. There's probably like 2" of rain over 2-pixel's worth of area by then, no doubt. That was all in this air mass with no real triggers that day other than butterfly farts and unicorn dreams... So, I'm thinking/wondering that having that same air mass in place with an actual 'reason' for air convergence to align thru the area should result - we'll see.

It was an interesting meteorological phenomenon - perhaps unnoticed... I don't know. But, typically backdoor boundaries don't come in this way. As you/we know ...there is more typically a build up of higher sfc pressure in/over the GOM, and then mass- discontinuity restoring rolls on down SW fills in everywhere east of the Berks'... taking Kevin out of contention for bigger heat with violent denial.. We did not actually raise surface pressure in the GOM this time, however. We lowered the pressure south ... and this instantiated the discontinuity from the other direction. I think that is interesting, and the NAM has 08 wind directions on the FOUS into BOS yesterday... June sun saved us here in Middlesex. In April we'd have been jammed up with that skud strata right through tomorrow morning but we've processed it out. The zephyrs are still ESE here in Ayer and though it's bounced to 83/71 and is starting to feel it,...clearly by satellite we are still mixing the slab out. The cu fields over the Worcester Hills are moving this way - I almost wonder if we get a late high... but probably Logan stays butt banged. ... not sure what others are noticing but there are GEF tele's and EPS modal suggestions for heat wave potential next week. Sort of 'cross-guidance' support. We'll see.