Typhoon Tip

ah ha ... -1 + + 1 = 0

Well ... heh, I also didn't mean it as a sleight-of-hand just in case. I just wouldn't have been surprised if folks hadn't notice. But I'm seeing this 15 billion hectare cyclone with 8 nodes trundling around inside of it but none of them are very impressive. like what the bag is up man - But that alone ...the entire basin S of 40 N by maybe 40 W has easterlies.. interesting

I guess the devil's in the semantics, huh I mean, what is meant by "very" in that context. As in ... almost never? Or how about, once. Or, even if just rare, really, we are not capable of comprehending how truly vast the cosmos is. Rare could be 1 per galaxy. Well, there are uncountable numbers of galaxies - and whenever cosmologists get to a consensus re how many there may be ( give or take exponents ) there's a trend of having to up that count by additional exponents ever couple of decades of ever refining deep field, astronomical observation technologies. The impetus being... who know how many their are, but the numbers is really too vast - so vast in fact that to even consider it a limited number escapes all practical meaning and therefore we can get into whether any such limit actually exists ( more a philosophy ). But, each galaxy that can be studied, there is estimated to average hundreds of trillions of stars ... Yes, the Milky Way alone has 200 trillion stars, all of which are - presently scienced and considered to be gravitation anchors for planets ... which are also gravitational wells that concentrate potentially volatile chemistry and the building blocks of life as we know it - not to mention the hypothetical bio-chemistry ... to which the adage amid scholars and scientists of the cosmological field often refer, "if you can imagine it ... the odds are, the Universe is doing it somewhere." No imagine having to multiply all that latter intrascale galactic factoidal array by a an 'incomprehensible to the point of essentially escaping all effective meaningly' large number and well ... you get something like quasi-infinity. Rare, ironically... becomes a huge number Something else - simple logic would beg - must be going on to limit the observation of other advanced civilizations. I read a lot. I get exposed to lots of hypothesis and counter-hypothesis in the yin and yang of speculation in these matters.. It seems to me that dumb luck plays a role too. Hell, for all we know,... there really is "A Galaxy Far Far Away ..." that has species interacting like the 401 outside of Los Angeles. We just happen to be circumstantially distanced like a Baluga hunter's bivouac Igloo ... ephemerally set out upon a glared white landscape too desolately removed and blinded by other lights to know or even know how to see that a proverbial 401 exists.. That would be funny premise for some sort of sci fi... We are, at long last, encountered by a transgressing extraterrestrial exploring species that's like, " where are your constituencies...?" "Pardon - constituencies?" "Wait.. your species has none... as in 0 contacts?! How is that possible" Through it all .. one thing that always struck me is, we can see the light from distantly red-shifted structures .. these objects that only came into exposure after putting a telescope fixated on a previously black region of interstellar space, for hundreds of hours... slowly capturing sparse photon at a time.. to finally create an image of galaxies some 13 billion light years away. Yet, we cannot detect the after glow - assuming these species obey the same physical laws that appears the entire Cosmos has to... - of these outre worlds. We should be able to hear their song long after they've evolved and or annihilated away. Throw a rock in a lake on a glassy still morning and the water returns to that same mirror reflecting serenity with no echo, signifying nothing took place there ... Yet the wave permeates a mile or more arcing outward away ... To any detecting source that may be that mile away, the arc arrives and it carries a message of something that appears to have just happened. Yes yes ..we all know this ... But, there are no rings - the point being, did the stone ever happen in the first place. That's less the annihilation thing, and more the Fermi paradox..and that, despite having the technological capacity to detect red shifted objects, in deep field Astronomy, that are 13 billion light years away there's nothing else but that light. It's definitely a head scratcher. The other aspect .. this could all be moot if the little green men ( and women ) are communicating with some other form of aggregate electromagnetism ..or even if something more sci-fi were involved.

Yup... agreed on the bold HUGELY. I have a personal hypothesis that relates: The modern conveniences of the Industrial Revolution are creating a society of apathy, which ultimately leads to partial failure in accessing the intellects of its population precipitates, along with 'putting to sleep' the morality that is believed to be emerged from the consciousness rooted in executive higher mental functions - those that are needed in a more cooperative/cooperating landscape. This is a particular con in the total pros and cons assessment of the IR - and there are pros ( I'm not meaning to damn the IR ). It is/has forced changes in how Humanity engages both at the individual, but in the collective sense, however. Cooperation suffers... The last million and half years of an evolutionary process that many don't even believe occurred, much less are aware, created a species uniquely dependent upon one another to survive. That's abruptly, instantaneously on a geological scale, become less needed - IR has effectively cut those requirements. And, nature abhors a vacuum. In the absence of those cooperative circuitry's .. how do the minds of the denizens get wired? I dunno - ask Columbine? We are unwittingly IN a vast sociological experiment - i.e., an evolutionary turn..etc etc etc. It's not that clear and cut, though, either. I mean, obviously... we are not all nut-jobs. But it really is a human failing ( IR or not ), where we try to put boundaries and definitions ...overtly quantize Nature into nice neat, tidy police work concepts and disciplines... when reality is actually more like "the Cloud" Seamlessly interacting probability curves. IR's over provision is, despite being a distinction that is non-ubiquitous among all humans, increasing the probability of errant vectors in the population. The latter stuff you mention is intriguing. Your content reminds me of that which circulates the Sci-Fi underground, the "kill-switch" hypothesis ... You used the term 'agency,' which is a loaded jest ha. But, agency could also mean that no species is allowed to exceed this "Civilization 0" rank. Kill-switchers believe we must be flirting with doing so, perhaps driven to do so, in fulfillment of that over-arcing Cosmic theme. There are more philosophical approaches. Take, the "Fermi Paradox" for example. The simplified - maybe - mutilated version goes: If the Universe is so favorably organized in such a way to promote the evolution of life, ... where is everybody ? Wiki' actually has a decent entry ...though I would not recommend anyone use that source as gospel by any stretch. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox

Not sure what the temperatures are like so far this month but ... anyone else get the sense this month so far and in the models is pretty much a paragon October ? The irony there is that we are experiencing epitome month 10 when the expense of the freak blizzards west and expanded Hadley cell exciting weird multi-phasic cyclone types pretty much in every direction SE of Long Island over the west Atlantic... both of which are pretty fantastic SD deals... The one over the Atlantic is less appreciated and under the radar in terms of significance but that's a highly unusual look.

Man... talk about being locked into a pattern mode ... the GFS does the exact same shenanigans a week later

We can't ... His use is/was a common vocal-contextual trope - "human beings" in that context doesn't mean were damning all to hell for some unredeemable limitation... It usually means 'the majority'? I don't have a problem with that based upon evidences. "People" (same idea..) need examples ... ones that appeal, directly, to one of the five major senses before they believe any kind threat is real ( more of psychological take there but a good one, because the individuals integrate the modes of the mean). If they don't get that tactility, they 'tend to' be like that typical water-cooler head nods and lip service politeness thing - "yeah yeah, right - sounds true. Interesting" I agree that it shouldn't be as assessment applicable of ALL who walk under shade or sun but I don't believe that was the intent ... if he was precise, which titling contexts seldom are, he might have said people too often tend not to be wired for - I agree that people have trouble with larger specter ( if they even can see it for that matter) of what the issue is about - it's almost like they hear what it will mean, and since they don't get why, and don't directly sense the evidences ( above ), they knee jerk deny. The 'whys' requires component analytic decomposition into constituency aspects, such that one can then see how it all fits together -.. heh, not many folks engage in that sort of mathematical processing as a general rule. That's part of the "untenable" nature of it right there, tho. Some can, few do, save one or two... and they get ignored. Humanity ignoring it's own pathway to destruction might be a road paved long before modern treks ever walked - it happened when evolution chose the great brain experiment. Being a bit spacious if not even specious-for-fun in that description, admittedly. But still, that's what is meant by not wired to see it. If we were born with a gene for it, we would be compelled not to buy plastic, burn paper with chemicals that make the smoke look black. Gas and oil technologies would have be vetted for consequence before accessing their stored chemical energies in a rush for profit. We just would have emerged different tech along the way - unwittingly, in concert with the gestalt of Gaia-health, perfunctorily. Most have to study math and complain while doing it...and are happy to have survived their B.A. (if they get that far or beyond). To that end, that is what Dr. Gupta is talking about - it's not as tenable to the commoner as we ( unfortunately) need it to be, and even many who rank "above" the hoi polloi for that matter are either having problems doing so, or ... ..that's the moral/ethic arm of the denier stuff. Which is related to your monetary interest thing. Some are just flat out self-centered to the point where they fight is really against god - speaking euphemistically. They are really pissed at the finality of life and flip the bird to reality and the universe for ending theirs at the end of 80 or 90 years if they're lucky, so they're burning all their bridges and partying one way or the other.. That's all rhetoric for this "it won't happen in my life-time" mantra you come across once in a while.

Not withstanding Scott's EPS statement ... The Euro's isentropic layout doesn't look hugely wet much N of S zones... Probably a big mist and drizzle shields S of the Pike with bands SE CT/RI CC Islands.. Personally I still think it is possible this all is overwrought but...given that we are inside the wheel house, I'd put money down on a system - just less clear exactly what the impact is going to be.

yeah it's a good catch on your part; I was in fact thinking how fast flow/gradient saturation is detrimental in organizing and/or constructive cyclogenesis ... Overrunning and IB events...mm.. I'd almost wonder if the opposite is true - less conveyor belt systems and more overrunning actually. I'm sure of it... it's like if you have 20 systems: 10 are overrunning and 10 are cyclone/belted in normal flow synoptics... In fast flow, you get the 20 but but 4 are cyclones and 16 are overrunning. You have to have overrunning as a base-line requirement, and whether that kinking in the baroclinic fields takes place after the fact requires S/W wind differentials. Fast flow absorbs those differentials..which is shearing and on and so on... So as a S/W enters an already velocity rich field the differential wind velocities are less and well..less cyclone.. but that still leaves the overrunning? if that makes sense... So in that sense only the stronger S/W can get the deed done for cyclones in faster flows. It's really just velocity/vector arithmetic and mass budgeting.. I was pretty clear earlier to that other user that I didn't think the gradient/compression stuff necessarily meant less snow ...much for this line of reasoning. Fast in and out and low residence time, sure... There's another type of more continental system though...where you get duration just because it keeps coming at you ... The given system is synced and moving with the L/W resonance so even though the flow is hurried around - Something similar took place a couple of times in 1993-1994 even though that example sort of predates the gradient/compression years since 2000. I remember stationary boundaries with ripple lows and overrunning IP events with OES hexagons and dendrites flitting underneath that lasted 15 hours some times. Weird f year... Anyway, I think we're playing with matches for a historic ice storm one of these years. I could see a positive tilted deal with fast flow but the systemic features are locked in and it's days of it...

Do you think the overall velocity surplus might have played destructive interference role?

Dr. Sonja Gupta recently put up an op ed on CNN ... wanna side four months ago at this point? But it fascinatingly discussed the untenable nature of Global Warming .. which probably the difficulty in accepting AGW is thus directly-causally related/precipitating. "...Human beings are just not wired to understand global warming..." This may or may not be true, but I wonder if what this Nakamura is writing is what happens when we mash-up greater than average I.Q. and mental faculties with that untenability - you get this sort of product. Wrong ... yet well-delivered, and thus what's ( interestingly untenable) is how the lay-person's inability to appropriately think critically, on-the-fly, when his information passes inside. There are a lot of dubious disconnects in these statements - ...it's like instead of conflating ( the usual mistake in the denier narratives/mantra), he takes the opposite tact and well ... these systems are less effectually influencing one another.

It's increasingly appearing that variances inside (+)(-) .75 SD are not forcing as prodigiously in the present era/epoch of "anthropocene" and going forward. In fact, I don't think ENSO is going to demo a foot print in the atmosphere at all this year... If so, it'll be coincidence... If it surges beyond some critical threshold where it's can be more effectively coupling ..thus, forcing, sure.

Yeah ... battery powered airlines ... Come fly united! that'll be cool... it would be really neat if there was a discovery of some way in which to manipulate space and time and energy like they do in Star wars or Star trek .. it's like glowing rails and the object lifts off and cruises with no exhaust. 2 growing to 4% according VOX data and so forth ... so, it's like remove all other forms of A VOX contributions - heh. If we can heat all homes and drive all cars and ship all boats without puffin' out industrial farts ... maybe we can then have our lawn mowers and flights without the moral and actual physical price tag of ending our existence on this planet... because I absolutely loath raking lawns!

It's the new GW standard ... model's admit to winter next summer

So some wavering in the tele- mass fields. After a three days of a more coherent signal ...we still see the Pacific paradigm shift as more possible than less, however, it is harder to determine if these recent distractions are legit or something more in typical of transition season sending red herrings - I tend to thing less the latter though. This is a time of the year when these determination methods are subjected to increased variance.. The MJO aspect is still interestingly stagnating in a moderate phase strength in the phase 8-1-2 region in both the Euro and GFS and their ensemble means. With the PNA at both the CDC and CPC showing a neutralization and plausible rise into positive SD after the 15th of the month ( or so .. ) that is a positively augmented signal typically enhanced when there are modeled/expectation of typhoon fluxing in the west Pacific. I'm still not certain which is the egg and chicken in that relationship: does the MJO lead the typhoon genesis and track ... or is there something super scope that supports both and they happen to orient at the same time... Perhaps that matters less compared to the significance of statistical correlation and now that we are getting deeper into autumn that correlation is awakening. Higibis should enter the westerlies E-NE of Japan .. All this spells an active pattern spreading down stream across the remainder of the N-NE Pacific and probably into N/A toward week two.

It's just over deepening that at mid/u/a levels from seemingly less momentum input/geo-physical sourcing, so it makes it less than clear why that's so gale-ed out

hey... it was just a suggestion lol Nah, I still would suggest that is the case. There are peculiarities about that whole way in which that sets up, so given that it is beyond D6 and is strange ... typically that doesn't end well for deterministic efforts in the field of operational Meteorology.

I'm actually 50/50 on a snow chance between the 20th and perhaps Novie 10th .. ( obviousy the ending dates are hugely skewed..) Comparing signals? I'd say this is about half that which preceded the October snow event in 2012, when it was some two to three weeks out in the tele's back in those faithful run-up days to week(s) ahead. I was going to pull a trigger on a thread specific to that interval, yesterday, but having waited for the teleconnector output, I decided to hold off. Half a signal in October can make a huge bustable difference! The problem is the handling the EPO, and to some lesser degree the NAO domain space... In 2012, the Pacific had more coherently modeled -WPO --> -EPO relay ( northern arc of the Basin) during a modeled 7-8-1 robust MJO WAVE underneath, and so the solid AB phase signaled was well correlated... ( that means the meridional flow type) This time WPO-EPO has been off and on. What both eras did/do have is a very clear and coherent and pretty much amazing phase reversal in the PNA; recovering some 3 or 4 SD in every member is a whopper modality. That usually comes with a paradigm shift to put it nicely. I'm also impressed with the MJO crumbling up in the Phase 8-1-2 in both the GFS/Euro and their ensemble means. The PNA/MJO is thus a very potent constructive wave interference pattern; the 'synergistic' result could send the operational runs into more of a western ridge, eastern trough couplet than even the models show at this time, ..when that two-or-so week span gets going. I just don't know if the EPO will cooperate... if it does, this has the same tele prominence as 2012 did in my mind - and it could still happen It's also possible the PNA/MJO synergy ends up driving a -EPO given time/correction forthcoming... The PNA tends to relay back and forth between that index and back.. +PNA --> -EPO/neutral PNA --> -PNA tends to be the cycle there... but the ending -PNA can be transitory prior to reload - in big years or cyclic +PNA's that takes place.

yeah... notwithstanding, there's alternative technologies, both plausible and coming out, such that rip and roar machinery isn't really the only option anymore. And, it can't be so there we go. As far as 'precious metals' in batteries; I'm less impressed with that as any form of limitation. Those are easier to reclamation than plastic. Besides, those options are vastly more appealing in the nearer term than the definite consequence of profligate combustion of fossil fuels. I guess one of the aspects I was dancing around there is that this whole AGW stuff ...if true ( and to some percentage I wouldn't care to debate in here, most likely is...) the total spectrum of contributory sources is more vast than we may think. It's childish not to consider the entire frame-work of modern Industrialism in that. Par for the course ... The industrial revolution and pretty much all of society's constructs are scaffolded by oil and fossil fuels. You didn't ask but ... I've often thought it funny that it took the planet say ... 100,000,000 to 500,000,5000 years to sequester all the presently accessible fossil fuel stows, both solid and liquid... Humanity, with conceit and ingenuity ... comes along and threatens to liberate all that reactive chemistry back to the reactive system in as little as 200 or 300 years: No problem. what ? We expect to do so without consequence? I mean... it seems so intuitively preposterous that the debate can't actually happen before the pitchers of water are set upon on the folding tables and the hall even starts to fill. There is no debate. Intuition tells us alone that we own the vast majority % of the cause of jolt environmental changes that are empirically being measured... But, maybe the intuitive model is wrong - who knows. You're right...that 'free-lunch' thing? I don't actually blame humanity for the "crisis" - should it ultimately deemed so. Evolution started this - we did our best as species to adapt and survive, and as the peregrinations of mutation and Darwinism would have it, we ended up with brains as our beast - that is how we've won - so far - this fight. Otherwise, folks may not realize this but a human being is, pound vs pound, the weakest organism on the planet. That's the trade off - unfortunately, the irony of the weakest beings owning the greater power comes greater responsibility. One thing I wanna add in this hugely inappropriate discussion for a winter outlook thread ( haha, sorry guys ), it bothers me when mankind refers to inventions of mankind, as unnatural. I got a mathematical wake up call for us all: what ever is inside the foreseeable cosmic boundaries ( i.e., the Universe itself) IS f'ing natural, and that includes whatever, nature invents. Plastic - totally natural Global warming by man kind - totally natural why? Because the men and women that made it happen are totally natural. Take humancentric egoism out of the equation, nature invented plastic and a warming planet. When one really sets down and thinks long and hard what that means... they may start to melt away the morality of it all, as just as constructed as the society that is doing the "damage" - nature does not care ... this planet... it doesn't care. But that's not what is paramount. We care... we care because, if we want to have a planet, a planet that requires a complex self-sustaining and healthy ecosystem at all scales and dimension within which we indirectly, but all importantly, need for our own survival we need to use what evolution provided humanity with: moral circuitry. It make us ..instinctually compelled to conserve that which promotes our own survival... And if self-preservation is an instinct we should ( and actually do... ) all possess, than not exacerbating the egregious situation of climate change is a recourse we need to set upon. I think all this bear relevancy because the problem with the denying this and that counter-culture is a sociological one, and that starts with how those with wisdom present to those that have less. A good part of which is in not being accusatory for what we needed to do to survive - we just need to strive to do it a different way. That intuitively seems like a better tact for reaching people. As far as captains of Industry that don't care to consider beyond their own life span, so they may as well reap now ...thankfully, that form of sociopathy is not more powerful than the masses, should they concede to the better form of the message and approbate accordingly.

mm...not sure what the consensus is ..or if the subject matter was even broached but to the straw man in the room, I suggest that coastal out there on the 00z GGEM/Euro is bullshit.

Interesting... Man, who sells snowblower's requiring internal combustion engines spewing contributory greenhouse gasses to the on-going AGW thing ... which concomitantly increases the odds of lesser and lesser snow fall, bets on more snow fall. The only reason that fails the obvious irony is that it'll take probably beyond his immediate generation/life before it is realized - but that's fascinating. If there were cross-generational moral culpability even capable in this species called Human Kind - which dey ain't - that philosophically becomes substantive. heh. Tongue-in-cheek, still true.. I mean, obviously.. the carbon footprint of a snowblower ..negligible. 20 or 30 million? mm.. It's funny this opportunity to soap-box presented its self. Because I just dropped my lawn-mower off at a repair shop yesterday, because the rip-chord had come out of it's housing and slipped under the cutting draft and got sucked in and ...well... eegh. Anyway, I was out there mulling in the lawn, culling the reminders of the season... when it dawned on me: why am I paying for a device that I really should not be using? One of the many thoughts that pass through the transom of one's mind. A single lawn-mower doesn't mean much ... but, 100,000,000 of them across N. America? ...let alone the world when it comes to either of these 'luxury' devices, may add a footprint that's only adding to the problem. I always look around me and these sort of things dawn on me. You know? We think of AGW as smoke-stacks ... and coal, and car industries and the power generation for the grid. It's probable if all these forms of industrialized societies were to be entirely green in some ... utopian future ( which ain't happenin' before a lot of people have to die first most likely... ( cynic, sue me! ) ), then the Earth might be able to absorb the contribution of mower, blowers, and front end loaders.

Agreed on the sentiment. Not sure it’ll be enough though. Utterly prism clear unabated light wind sun and 63 super adiabatic low levels tomorrow and not as chilly tomorrow night then two mild days. Not likely enough

Tonight is the first night that has that smell to it… Hemorrhaging gossamer warmth to alpha Centauri. Wouldn’t surprise me if places bust temperatures a degree or two colder

Page turned as scheduled Pan-continental thickness correction is complete. We’ll get warm days here and there but certainly not sustained. Even the south has had a thickness evacuation ... highly unlikely they’ll return to anything close to what they just went through 50/50 cold signal out there

Also ...I've read several attempted reanalysis type frame-works on that 1804 thing in the past ... To me, it leaps out as an extra-tropical bomb that infused/engulfed an unusually pithy latent heat source/extreme baroclinicity evolved quickly because of it, a bit beyond the standard Norwegian model low - Think 'rogue wave' like, when these more typically vying parametric sources seem to actually super-impose, super-constructively.. Super storm '93 is one.... Sandy is likely another example. As is 1804.. I don't really believe that a hurricane actually had concentric snow bands however -