Typhoon Tip

This was an ice storm look since D8 lol... but yeah. I'm looking at ALB's NAM grid and the model's capping a +5C 800 mb layer over an isothermal 0C temperature curve ... over eastern NY ?! zomb... Meanwhile, the Euro ...being inside D4 mind us, is showing rising fresh, new, polar high pressure atmospheric cold mass into D.E.M. ... Btw, given the synoptic indicators ... NWS will need to expand that watch all the way to I-95 over eastern zones...probably down into N RI at some point. It is unclear why they have not included those areas anyway, other than - I guess - trying to out-think the models, but I suspect more likely there is a dearth of local studies/climatology unique to this region, scaffolding their forecast philosophy. When there are big, fresh, new polar highs arriving/wedging from eastern Ontario, such as that that's being indicated by the most trustworthy guidance at this particular time range... mmm, I read their discussion to be fair, and frankly it does not translate like they are self-reliant in the 'existential' concepts, and more so like they sought consensus with surrounding offices - which I'm sure is protocol and is fine. But it's interesting that with a bigger of pool of brains in that discussion, one would think one of those mind-pans would have instructed a hand-waving, and honed the concepts of ageostrophy/"barrier jets" and that there is less likely an E turning of the wind at the surface Sunday night. good luck! I could be wrong, ...and it's probably a tedious critique ...considering no one outside this social media will ever be made aware this missive was composed...and, we don't matter, and, no one gives a shit anyway... But for the virtue of wasting my time, I felt it worth to mention

Well yeah. Lol. Not withstanding the NAM.

That’s not what’s happening in that solution tho. No high retreat - in fact its stall is partial in why that secondary is getting pinned s of LI

Wouldnt it be interesting if the models just started converting this more and more to a coastal as we get into near terms

wow that’s headed for quite the protracted event in that NAM solution. 84 hrs the ice/sleet converts to a coastal just getting going

meh... tick warmer all fields...but yeah, it's noise. I like pushin the buttons and testing the sensitivities - I'm disappointed there wasn't more hate thrown my way for saying that actually... You guys are letting me down

GFS tries to go back warm... No posts - God I love the sweep it under the rug culture.

Not intending this as a testament to the NAM's correctness in handling matters but ...that's pretty impressive how it parks that H NNE of Maine and for 24 to 30 hours, then moves it 0 while waves of QPF hose hammer at it from the OV right over over us. If you want to run an ice storm ...that's really how you get it done. Suppose for a second it's closer to reality - some may even see more sleet and snow...they may. But, where that goes ZR you could be talking light to moderate steady falls at 29 to 31 F, with a constant feed of lower DP air on an endless supply of ageo jet to make sure you don't survive - Jesusyikes... I'm hoping here along Rt poopie that if this cold high scenario ( ala Euro even ) is right, we are deep enough in it to bee-bee accumulate 2.5" rather than accreting 1" of power sag

Lol, I meant in snow - come on... altho NE is a big region I'm not sure what it's doin' up in Maine exactly -

it's funny ... this is completely the wrong thread to mention this, but there is a tenor in this social media that's acting as though we should be suffering some form of winter abandonment - which, ...WRONG. We are above normal Dec climo - if people need to guide their sense of happiness based on constant diet of some metaphoric dystopian cryo-horror drug like a junky that can't get to the better high, than you're just f'n nuts. You're in a great goddamn winter until further f'n notice. Deal with it. hahaha wow

Yup... this is exactly. right this is that, incarnate I think - I mean you can see how the Euro has the 850 mb 'bending' back suddenly toward White Plains and N. NJ around 84 hours in there. I don't think that's saturation/wet-bulbing doing that ..tho some perhaps. Anyway, as that is happening you can see the high pressure is slipping a bit SE of the GFS' beady -eyed obsessive warm intrusion scenario... and the Euro just fits climo and frankly, experience. We'll see..

That's the way to run those... Not to get into it but personally? I'm not a fan ... The specter of it has it's place, but the novelty pales compared to no power. It's just not worth it...really. Keep it spectral please -

This looks like a candidate for a pulse of cold about 1/3 or 1/2 of the way thru the event's total time table .. give or take. Without that, it'd be a cold rain with some pings that ends as wet snow, modulated for N-S thru region(s). However, what the American models are hinting, the foreign models appear more discerned, and that's that a pulse of colder air arrives and changes that illustration. If/when that happens, ice. And of course, precise timing, and precise magnitude of any such arrival dictates the amounts therein. Nothing new per climate... we've seen this countless times in the past. At some point ... a wave of cold comes in from the NNE/NE from interior Maine and there's a bit of a 925 mb level modest jet of air that probably isn't modeled with the best coherency as such but happens nonetheless... And it drills this into southern NH and eventually ...this cuts in underneath the Easterlies on-going that are on the N side of the warm front. Which by the way...ain't goin' no where The mid and upper level synoptic forcing that is the cause for elevated surface pressure pattern around the NE arc of the total cyclonic aspect, is fully integrated. That boundary approaches central Jersey and it's game over. Whatever flow of air from the south that attempts to incur upon that surface ridging is going do one of two things: go over it; flow around it. It doesn't matter exactly what the temperature is in the air mass on the polarward side of the front in this case, though cold air does add viscosity and some resistance alone. More specifically, the Euro ( and somewhat in the GGEM) we see the high pressure contouring sliding a bit more SE in eastern Ontario than the American cluster - that's an important distinction out there around 84 hours ... Personally I feel in this situation and considering climo, the American models are suspect in this case. But not every set up like this does that "tuck" routine ...and, if that were not enough, we've seen tucking succeed, and drill the temps back from 38F to 32.1 at times too. There's an opportunity for now-casting here ... This is an extremely stretched Miller B ...it's just so vastly so, that some would argue it isn't at all - also arguing because they have a narrow conception of these event types based upon idealized paradigms, and forget that those rules are meaningless ( really ..) in the atmosphere.. but I digress.. However, anytime we find antecedent +PP exerting BL resistance down the eastern side of the App's cordillera, which we do..., and you have a deep layer troposphere trough being squeezed more E of the Lakes as opposed to rotating up into Canada, ... which we do, we'll find a secondary. We do get the secondary to develop out of this mess, but it is paltry and weak because the - as said - the mechanics as stretched ... We could even call it a 'hybrid swfe/ Miller B too..

Perfect analysis! I was mentioning that to Will or Ray earlier about that "pixie growth" ...almost a secondary nucleation band under the deeper UVM aloft. Shit I've seen 1/4 mi vis in shards/shard clumps while in IP/ZR ... and what's weird is the dust dry? With ZR embedded... mess is what it is. The accreting ice kind of takes on a grayish hue to it... If it's mostly IP, that can be wicked as it pack/settles very dense at time of fall...so if you get anywhere close to 3" of that, it cretes

700 is more important for chilling down the growth region of the ambient sounding. I've seen it sleet from 8,000 feet before with a +4 wedge near Everest

12z Euro remains essentially unchanged in the general synoptic handling of the event in question... If there are detail differences they are noise most likely as the governing players are not really instructing enough demonstrative differences over the last run to assume a different surface evolution. Looks like a very tall sleet column between the Pike and Rt 2 ...with a band of some bad icing in the southern some-odd band of that... I also caution that cold will always wedge farther south than even the most "enthusiastic" hotdog vision too ... So, "IF" the present appeal works out.... ( thank god for the rest of us !) Kevin likely loses power ...

Not to be a dick and toot horns or nothin' but ... I mentioned two days ago in this thread .. somewhere, that climo alone was not in favor of the GFS solutions, then. The other aspect is that this system is actually more than merely a trough/closed broad Lakes vortex - it's really in totality a REX or quasi-REX structure with attendant blocking up higher over JB - this sort of 'closed system' is mutually reinforcing... That alone, this wasn't ever going to be about a low cutter - This is in total behaving like a -NAO west based, but technically...it's neither a west based NAO or east based/+PNAP... But just a straight up anomaly. The GFS - I don't intuit - is the right guy for handling that. For one, the model has a mid range progressivity bias that is pretty clear to those of us that are familiar with modeling behavior... and REX in general is not really conducive to pancaking/fast flow... so it's anomaly relative to the flow, too - neither of which the GFS is really cut for... Also, the more that Lakes vortex attempts to move N of our latitude, only increasing the tucking/+PP air mass potential over Ontario, so it really is almost physically impossible to warm sector given the present modeled synopsis, geography/topography and planetary circumstances et al... I agree with Ray or whomever it was that said this looks more icy to me. That was apparent back then too, hasn't changed... Altho...phoo...that's one helluva tuck in the 00z Euro. That may actually get the cold layer so damn deep that we have those micro needles and plate production happening in a roaring sleet/ZR column. Total mess... "gray ice storm" more so than clear.

Heh, reminds me identically of this Miller-A bomb that the horrible beyond belief GFS modeled, too ...

Climo alone argues the GFS is too light with it's pressures over central and eastern Canada for -1 or -2 SD trough rollin' over ORD like that... just sayn'. Looks more like ice storm for the time being ...

Doesn't work that way .. It's not like, A --> so B happens, in the greater maelstrom of the planetary atmospheric mechanics ... It's more like, A --> so B prime might yield a skip over C, so that D can gives rise to E-F-G ... but if, and only if, B ( not prime but initial condition) allowed its differential .... such that .... Nth enigma might parlay into a trough over eastern N/A if about 10 other things line up such that all that can happen. I think there's a equation for that ...

Hopefully after we’ve lost all our snow pack and just suffered two model busted bomb whiffs with 0 results… after they carried 960 ACK lows for four days first and pulled the plug on dday then that happens five days later, earliest spring in history breaks.

Has there ever been a K.U. type storm like on the Eve of Dec 31 ? There's been others spattered around the country in their own right ... but, a real low latitude Miller B bomb that crawls along the coast -

The only thing the Euro 'shows' is that it takes whatever's left over at day 6.5 and dumps it into too amplitude ...

1995's November into depths of December Holiday season was vastly superior to this, by comparison. The issue isn't 'snow on the ground' - though all subjective opinions into a blend, divided by n-complaints .. certainly snow on the grounds plays a role in how this year's, and others, are Holiday-grace judged. However, only plays a part. It's not enough. To content post as though otherwise snow on the ground is it, that's bargaining or something. We are 'suffering' too many interceding intervals of 'threat' to said snow pack, and have also verified too many of these Miller A rainers. Also, times when synoptically ( like Xmas week, although the blocking in Canada may tamp that down..) the whole-scale wants to cold roll-out back into a continental warmth. These taint this away from the better graded Holiday season Currier&Ives appeal. That's fair. I'd give this a C ... C+ in an instant of forgiving bi-polar elation... but, since this is a kitchy play-in to the insanity missive anyway ( ) I will add that if Xmas ends up bare ground, with mere glacial remnant snow packs concreting the edges of streets and parking lots, this sucker goes D- in a real f'n hurry. It's on "thin ice" I would pose the subjective argument that it doesn't even have to snow that often in the given judgement. If our region can avoid the Miller A rainers, avoid the Rosby roll-out warm assaults and say ... only snows twice with enough cold for protection, that's a solid B or even B+ grade improvement right there. A's are just rare here...too rare.. but, 1995-'96 was an A+ and is - for me - the apex metric against which all butt-soreness is either redeemed, or cast into the much bigger garbage heap of history seasons.

He always did that ... Bruce did. Soon as he said it I was like , yup ... there it is. Backlasher! the old lull before the reenergizes call. Around the time he finally realized things don’t really work out like that he retired.