Typhoon Tip

SSW registering now ... not only modeled. Time will tell if it's a down weller

To be fair ... futility should technically be <= ".01" because values less than that are theoretical and cannot be 100% proven false or true based upon no measuring being absolute. ...

Fyi - That's the Climate Diagnostic Center source above. There is another, which "might" be arguable as being more pertinent to winter weather, but don't quote me. Those are provided by the Climate Prediction Center. The CDC determines the low level tropospheric wind anomalies. Increased low level flux from the N within it's domain designation means (-) sign. Naturally... flux going N is (+). Those, when the low level wind flow in the N Atlantic Basin is averaging S ... depending to what magnitude that is the case determines the -NAO and vice versa. The CPC determines the mid level tropospheric geopotential height anomalies. The negative phase state features higher than normal heights. The positive naturally being opposite. Referring back to classical Meteorological training ... higher heights concomitantly is associated with increased surface pressure... such that when there is a higher heights over say... western Greenland, there tends to be increased surface pressure in the vicinity beneath ... Since wind always flows from sources of higher toward lower pressure to conserve mass everywhere at all times perpetually and seamlessly when dealing with gases of any medium in free space, even for the total nimrod ... hey! -NAO at CPC must also be a -NAO at CDC because the heights and the low level wind are inexorably linked. In essence that is true... However, there is time variable to consider ... Rapid phase changes in the heights of CPC, may precede the low level wind anomaly detection of the CDC ... by some. At larger than mesoscale phenomenon, The atmosphere always changes aloft, first. Therefore, a rising (falling) index at CPC may in fact not represent identically at CDC in terms of total standard deviation. Think of CDC as the result of balancing/restorative forcing within days of rapid changes in the other... Or, in times when the CPC may modulate more slowly... the CDC may more properly reflect a similar index complexion. For winter, it is the larger-scaled height nodes, positive or negative, that signal the orientation of the larger wave progressions in the atmosphere ... These wave feature when/where storms evolve...the cold or hot conveyors are situated... and on and so on... So it seems intuitive that the CPC might be "slightly" more instructive on the real d(status) of things.

Most likely a variation along/within the same decadal (perhaps multiple at that...) climate tendency that began roughly around the year 2000. Looking at even a hundred years prior ... provides a suggestion of rareness to observe October snow. Since 2000? wow. Some 1/3 to perhaps 1/2 (regional scale) of all Octobers have delivered more so than merely a in the air snow; measurable above a trace, and perhaps the most important distinction, not just at elevation either. Since 2000 was nearing 20 years ago ... it engenders an interesting question: whether this increased frequency is merely "millennia noise," or do these represent a fundamental systemic shift. I mean ...20 years vs 1000 (millennium) is obviously negligible 'sounding.' However, the shortest route to a deceived destination is paved in one of the following two: linear statistic inference; GOP lobbyists getting their hands on linear-based statistics so that they may do the inferring for you. For everyone else, the behavior and 'gestalt' of the data are mutually exclusive, and the best description of the truth about the system in question isn't 'what happened,' it's 'how did it happen'. 1991 ... the usual serrate of the Globe's on-going climate curve had its noise, but the years since 1978 were essentially on a trend-predictable rise in temperature. There were more at 'standard' outliers, but overall ... I think that period was gently upward sloped ... with less in the way of larger standard deviation years. Then, Pinatubo erupts... Said serrate over the next five years, begins exhibiting a secondary trend(s) ... indicating something had disrupted the status quo. Pinatubo ... d(status) ... Pinatubo ... d(status) ... Wasn't a terrible cause-and-effect assumption. I'm not sure where I'm going with that ... but I think it centers around if someone were to look at the 1990's, then compare it to the last thirty years in total, they may immediately assess that climate change rises(falls) summarily in accordance to that behavior, but that would be wrong. The defining influential aspect of volcanism would be missed from their calculation. The point of all this... 20 years of defined onset climate variance is enough (at least for me) to consider a pan-systemic influencer on the system But more to original point ... one might wonder if "snow in October" should even be considered all that big of a deal in this "new" regime any more.

SSW showing some semblance again of actually down-welling in the GEFs ... an important factor for eventual (lag) -AO response... Not to be mistaken with vortex splitting prior to ~ 20 days from now... Prior to any or all of that... there is also a three day continuity/coherent index suggestion for storminess leading to and throughout the first week of January.

I think it'd be interesting if we got blanked 'till March 1 then got a 70" month capped by a weird 20" powder bomb 1982 style in the first half of April. The snowiest no winter ever

Farmers Alm was mild and wet. But that one seemed to get swept under the rug. Heh

I'm actually a little less optimistic for winter weather enthusiasm than any "... Some winter threats appear mixed in at times..." conciliatory rationalism offers - that'll prolly make sure this collection of lucid and objective engagers won't read any further ...huh. I would never say probability is zero - that's just not the way of atmospheric vagaries. In fact, the 1:1 correlation coefficients that exists between claiming and failing, that science for some reason never actually has formally papered ... will make sure to point that out in the most insidious way it can relative to all observers. Here's how that works: It's quite analogous to the electron double-split experiments - perhaps you've heard of them? ...Okay, never mind ... just know that in advance Physics, it has been shown via attempts to empirically witness fundamental particles of nature, that one cannot simultaneously observe the atmospheric kosmic dildo, while simultaneously measuring its momentum, ... because of the uncertainty principle. Yes...this quantum mechanical exertion of concealing the real intent of nature, cannot in fact conceal the fact that nature is concealing that intent - we call this, a paradox. Whether talking about virtual particle trajectories of sub-atomic Baryonic particles... or integrating the infinite number of them to formulate the maelstrom majesty of the entire atmosphere ... at either dimension that means that the time it takes to make the observation, the object of the observation has already moved. So, that means taking this to logic end ... all of reality must be intrinsically designed so that you don't get to know the truth. Moreover, the designer is eternally blessed with entertainment while it watches you writhe ultimate failing the fight to find it. You only get to see the outcomes... See how that works? That way some creepy weirdism shy of actually calling it a super-natural force reserves the right, at all times, to alter reality away from the winter storm(heat wave) sure bets weather forecasts ... Creative writing aside ... there are no absolutes. Even in the worst of times, some-thing may eek out an anomalous presence. This business is really all about juggling probabilities relative to favorable pattern regimes. It's not as complicating as that may sound ... to any, tech-numbed emoji-based e-zombies. When this sort of -PNAP pattern is opposite, with more negative departures situated east ...while there is a more neutral geopotential medium southeast/Florida ... those probabilities in those eras go the other way - it's not 100%. When there is a preponderance of elevated geopotential heights over the GOM and adjacent southwest Atlantic Basin ... Caribbean, you probabilities for incurring a winter storm is lower - it's not zero. This latter version is our plight until further notice. I see the probabilities right now as heavily sloped against what y'all want, and heavily sloped in favor of a coveting trolls that lurk. For those...this is a snipe heaven... drive by shooter's gallery. Moderators of the Lord Of The Flies internet forum need to actually do their jobs and cut some access testicle off until this two week stint finally alleviates naturally. ...oops, hopefully I'm not one of them... Seriously, not much changed since I started this thread. People are heavily referencing the EPS ... My basis for formulating the SE ridge/bad pattern intoned statements were rooted in the GEFs.. I said then, they do fine...provided the user knows how to use them. Well - so far...feeling pretty vindicated. Which, unfortunately doesn't help your cause... because now, both the GEFs and EPS are targeting your butt cheeks for contusions. Ha... oy ... One thing I find interesting... it makes me wonder if this is really that relaxation... Maybe the EPS mean, in its own inimitable way was merely rushing that in before... Ironically ... just as collectively, some users seem to also rush the world through SE ridge pattern... which technically, hasn't even occurred. It was supposed to be Xmass through the first week of January ... Tenor in here comes off like denial or evasiveness to that which is still likely to still occur - not absolutely of course.

I just meant the pattern look favorable for ice from Christmas until the first week of January with the South East Ridge and the northern Jets s Canada. It's Not worth it to focus on anything specific

If the NAO does tank ... that might be true for the interim ... but the whole winter? egh, good luck. I still think between xmass and ny the Lakes-OV-NE regions are prone to ice events. Scott's "schit streak" jet core running SE across eastern Canada, while the SE ridge rims over top confluence surface PP...and deep layer troposphere vortexes volleying wind maxes along in between is prime real-estate of overrunning episodes.

You guys should take the icing idea along the way there... Not seeing much indication that's registering to the reader... but, if the N/stream remains active, and with very recent NAO progs indicating that may be the case, ... -NAO/-PNA with SE ridge is ice event climo -

oh sorry - cool...

I'd say it moved long perfectly ... and - unfortunately - has relayed right into a SE ridge period. But, ...you know? I mentioned this a long while ago. Pretty obvious...perhaps, but, the circumstances et al had to 'relax' anyway. I mean, really ... was anyone delusional enough to think that 9 F on T.G. and the snow storm of that era, were going to repeat indefinitely when looking forward from climatology at that particular temporality? ... some were wondering if they could hold out, no doubt..

I'm sure you've ...et el have considered this, if not ... you should, but that could turn out to be a couple of icing events through that five days. The thing is,... each model is offering their individual charm as far as their typical biases go. The Euro appears to dig perhaps too much out west; even if just a little, there's so much foundation for SE ridging, the superposition of even subtle bias with bloating heights SE ... overwhelms in that evolution. Contrasting (perhaps enough?) the GFS is slightly more progressive, such that the trough out west is teensy weensy critical amount enough not as deep, and that helps flatten the latitude expanse of the eastern/SE heights. The Euro version offers some over the top high pressure...keeping us wedged at times enough to really prevent a truly awesome warm departure - albeit, too warm for anything else, However, the GFS and its soon to be brought-on-line parallel runs are both using said over-the-top high pressures with enough weight to cause either SWFE like your seeing...or if the fast flow in general shears out a little more we end up with less Lakes cutting cohesive cyclone and more in the way of ice storm set ups -

Case in point ...there could be a icing event brewing out there between Xmas and NY's

Yeah ...I mean, things can certainly (and probably will actually...) break more in line with what folks want ...without the SSW - to which, D15 is too soon for down-well --> -AO response. Next August ... set coffee down some Saturday morning, crack open the forum, and there it is: a 20 post dialogue stream about how the " ... SSW roared in early January earlier this year" despite all truths and consequences. I sort of tried to allude to this in this thread's opening, re the stuff about how the SSW's effect may collocate in time with warm ENSO (if this sucker ever even gets around to it...) statistics for back ending winter. The two are likely to get confused if other factors change things prior to the SSW. Natural tendency for people to rush things ... particularly, to get through a frustrating pattern episode - to which ...who would argue? heh. But, we haven't seen the onset of the SE ridge associated with the negative PNA /MJO handshake - if that's not breaking down in its own rite. Whole 'nother headache: that could happen, we could miss out as warm enthusiasts just the same, do to the over-top high pressure routine. I was trying to be careful not to doom the rest of December but I'm sure that's the perception in the absence of champaign 30" deep.

Heh... I'd be careful of that... It's getting improperly applied, the SSW ... Unless you mean for different reason- okay. But, one ... we're not even sure this is a propagating SSW ...vs just a typical high stratosphere static warm node. They tend to fire off and decay inside of days... most of which don't down-well. This one? It may be propagating, but ...I don't know if the models are actually showing that at this time. In fact, my experience is that these models rarely do; it may be something that's more observed if/when that happens. two. .. which is critical in the -AO forcing statistics... finally three ..., there really is at minimum at two to three week lag correlation... Putting all those three SSW model aspects together, I don't (personally) see so how anything any model is doing inside of 10 days really is related to that. What I like is that the teleconnectors, at least the GEF ones, are unstable. Because the look three days ago was so f'ing ludicrously bad that anything different simply has to be better ha

That looks neutral to me ... perhaps agreeing with the CPC numbers from last night. But then ... East-based may ultimately mean 'neutral' in hard numbers, because there is no distinction in the total NAO integration for west or east character. For reference, the CDC NAO calculates the index using this virtual box: [(35-45N, 70W-10W) - (55-70N, 70W-10W)] That's available right on their web-source. The CPC ...I'm not sure where to find their exact lat/lon coverage without deeper tedious research using an ever increasingly greed/profit smeared Internet ...making the virtue of the web ever disintegrating and an egregious and annoying venture... Thus, I don't care enough to deal with that frustration so - But, should the CDC and CPC have variation in their spatial domain (I actually kind of doubt they do, but one never knows...) that "might" account for discrepancies. Here's last night's from CPC, indicating dip (maybe) way out there D10-ish... Not very confidence inspiring, otherwise, the neutral appeal:

Mm maybe... It was, as of yesterday, drawing up a two week long negative curve, plumbing to some -2.5 SD mid way at the CDC only. The CPC did not indicate that same variance showing most members and the mean of all members, combined, nearly neutral right out to the end ..some two week's worth. Both can be valid projectors for the NAO. So which one does one choose? ...Naturally, the one that indicates the deeper curve right? heh Seriously though, there's that, ...and, it was relatively new as a signal to begin with - the new numbers tend to publish the morning after the nightly computations, which is any moment ..so we'll see if CDC's numbers might have been the beginning of something. I tend to think not though? At least ...preliminarily ... because, the CDC is not benefiting from 'continuity and confidence' ... Continuity in this context means a consistent trend ... without it, the bad weather forecaster allows themselves to being led on by the peregrinations of fractals... ( tongue-in-cheek for excursions imposed in/of/by chaos ). I mean... we're moving along in over a week of neutral butt-bone NAO; we can either light the torches for the opening winter games ceremonies, or... look at it intelligently and stay the course until a more substantive reason to alter. But I'm lecturing and ranting over morning coffee... point being, I wouldn't trust that - for now. But again, we'll see if the CPC curves at least dent for f sake...

That 24th flat waver's been in and out of the guidance for the better part of the week. Random ensemble members of the GEF also inconsistent in themselves... No one's sure, changing minds. I've been watching that - mentioned it as one of those sort of "offset" anomalies, just because in the larger scaled spatial relationships it fits to have something tuck in that time frame, and given to a fast progressive pre-SE ridge bulge, you'd prefer to see it be of the open wave variety like that too. It's hard to say if the model's just using whatever it finds in that numerically unstable set up or if there's really potency to hone in on, but one thing is for sure...in that flow construct... whatever it is keying on must probably be somewhere out near the date line. Frankly, anything from nothing to a Novie 1987 is possible out of that period.

Yeah... as an afterthought ...this/that is what I was thinking, that PWAT is an integral and so the tropospheric depth may be where this particular event scores its uniqueness. Correct me if I'm wrong... I thought PWAT considered the entire column -

In my memory ... but it may have been a phone call. We had the conversation. And I told him at the time, things were going to change. Unlike now, there were more obvious signals in the indices and runs suggesting that warm surge back whence was more transient. Which this will be too... It's just that the rest state on either side is a different canvas.

Well, there were near saturation ... upper 60s to near 70 events as near as in 08... as such was the case in 03... for what it's worth. And many in the 60 to 64 range. That does seem to refute the 25 year result, but ... honestly, I wasn't considering the GEFs PWAT per se - haha.. I was more going for the temperature part of that oops. You know it's interesting ... we keep getting, with accelerating frequency too ... higher DP and concomitant PWAT excursions into middle latitudes ... I'm not willing to blame that on mere agricultural feedback in the summer, as it is happening globally, regardless of season. People keep knee jerk trying to assign causes to anything that could even be 7 degrees (pun intended!) of separation plausibly related to global warming ... Meanwhile, said "excursions" are like ... number 2 on the list of 100 reasons why GW is going to holocaust and dust civility to its knees...probably? sooner than f'n people have any g-damn clue! The consequential changes in the arctic circle have out-paced even the most dire climate models ... and this denial complex will shouted over the shoulders of those as they are walking off the cliff at this rate. sorry, I rant.

I get the humor here ... but you know. I have a weird take on this. If we dimensionalize that, is it really that unusual? Per my experience, these 62/62 ... 66/63 or even 70/70 southerly stream events recur approximately every three to five years. I can actually go all the way back to 1994 and start counting and assuredly...it comes out to about that. Jan '94, Jan '96, very late Nov '03, Dec '04(?), Dec '08 ... I know there's been another since 2008, and should this one take place, too ...etc. It seems setting up a winter scenario where the storm track shifts W and N while the surface PP slips east ... leaving the entire eastern seaboard defenseless to the tropical fist ( a deep layer WCB ) while obnoxious, granted, seems to have a return rate as those empirical(like) years seem to suggest. This thing modeled strikes me a lot as just almost exactly like the 29th Novie 2003 ... I'm not sure why ...but that week's succession of events has always stuck out elaborately in my memory: First, the warm blast: I recall temperature and dew point soared to 70/70 with sheets of rain and white noise through the tree top ( https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/index_20031128.html m). A friend texted me mid evening asking what the fu chuck, 70 F in December?! At the time ...far different than present, the big event of Dec 5-7 was just beginning to sniff out on the GGEM's D10, too. I distinctly recall ...the model was scooping up a TC out of the Caribbean and fusing it into a cold trough up underneath an over-top high pressure cresting through eastern Ontario. Interestingly ...what actually came of it was there was indeed a TC but it remained cohesive and separate ... escaping E over the Sargasso Sea ... However, before any of that would have a chance to verify came two: we suffered a strong polar fropa ( https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/index_20031201.html ) ... followed a day or so later by a diffused arctic front ( https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/index_20031202.html )... that wrought havoc to morning commute with blinding snow squalls and temperatures crashing through twenties into the teens. That 1 to 1.5" of snow and crashing temps flashed on the roads and created an utter locked grid from Danvers Mass clear to RI on I-95. Three: Followed a couple days later by a 10 to 20" powder event ...one that interestingly squeezed the rain/snow line all the way down to the Borne Bridge ( https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/index_20031206.html ) ... very difficult to do in the first week of any December! That was one of my finer calls (shameless self-promotion.. ) I shared an email with Harvey ...explaining how/why that may happen and precisely events transpire accordingly (it's awesome when that so rarely happens, huh!) The cold trough turned more like a book-end low that pushed N against the high pressure, as is suggest in the above link. That construct created 'snow machine' kinematics. The low its self was climatologically weak as a coastal storm entity...however, E flow anomaly at 700 mb, with ENE at 850, and NNE at the surface through an ideal frozen sounding... ho-ho man. I love it when that sort of outre way of getting it done, happens... Sweet cross-section/ jet concurrence in that case. I was living in Winchester Mass at the time... also climate-unusual for that location and powder snow so early. It was 19 F (distinctly recall) with 1/8th mile visibility at one point, and we ended up with 17.5" of champaign not 10 miles from the ocean as the crow flies, when/where SST were lingering in the low 50s. Those sort of events are like under-the-radar extremes that remind us that there really are no immovable boundaries and/or rules in the business of atmosphere... How it's really just shifting probabilities relative to opposing forces ... Anyway, ... I almost wonder. .. .if took each one of those WCB events and looked at whatever did transpire within ten or so day post their occurrence, would we see any kind of stat marker for a colder profiled event.

I wonder about convection localizing flood. Some impressive height falls playing catchup to/over top DP anomaly could see trained thunder like October night last year