Typhoon Tip

I tend to agree here re outside <-- inward influencing ..yeah. On a more globular philosophical level, whether we are infusing TC's or phantom convectively driven faux vorticity packets ... the end result is the same: the modeled depiction of the system gets a boost in either case. Obviously the convective feedback is the less likely of the two, and as to the other ... if we don't see some sort of TC detonation and pretty darn soon than ( I feel ) it is more likely the Euro'esque runs will succeed.

Looking closer at this NAM ... it's certainly eye-candy whether it verifies or not.. . But, more practically ..there is an emergent property about the NAM's solution - it's [ enter euphemism here ] depth, and integration with the mid level cyclonic featuring, I suspect can account for why it is slowing the low down and evolving it into a full on capture/stall scenario. It even Fuji Wara's the surface low while it is trying to fill... I don't believe yet the NAM's total evolution is going to transpire. Something more like the Euro most likely ...with perhaps some caveats and distractions within the frame-work of expected/acceptable error. Having said that... you know, the wind in the NAM may end up being blase anyway? If the front side is sort of "protected" by inversion, then...the low stalls over Worcester for 12 hours like that, the wind in the central region of that vortex is actually going to drop to variable and light for a time... So that's two thirds of the event with wind shirking the barographic layout - that'd get the locals pissed!

Agreed! We've beaten the convective feed-back expectation .. but there's always late comers to the conversation and/or those that .. .have difficulty with this stuff. I'll only reiterate what I was discussing/others noted over the last couple of days, that all models agree that the thicknesses at low levels do not reflect a very rich baroclinic region of lower troposphere where the models are attempting to deepen a surface reflection. I suspect this is causing models with sensitive convective sequencing to go nuts... The best Q-G forcing/DPVA is actually taking place south of the best warm frontal slope, which is interesting. But, that pinches off the warm sector aloft - I suspect - and than you are left with a low that has warm air rampart, so the models "mistake" that as warm core - models like the NAM. But the Euro most undoubtedly has sophistication in its physical make-up *(i.e., superior convective sequencing/integration therein), it's probably got things about it open to critique but... heh, these NAM notions of hyper meso lows rattling around inside a circumvallate are a smoking gun for a surface front starved environment in a model that is defaulting to the next available mechanical processes for focusing a low.

Good! Wind prognostics seems to be an area that is sorely needing some polish .. pressure tendency exceeding the Coriolis/time dependence for 'bending' mass around curvature and all that ( allobarics) ..blah blah... is where/what I'm actually more intrigued about this system for - which may or may not be covered in your evolving efforts? I'm not sure it does, as your description appears focused in lapse rates - where as allobarics deals with restoration of mass in scenarios where pressure tendencies exceed the Coriolis term ( f^2) .. I mean obviously you know this, I'm just prefacing for blw. Based upon personal anecdotal experience ... it doesn't seem wind acceleration is as noted when there is deepening low pressure approaching; it is when it then pulls away that you hear white noise over the horizon in some extreme cases of "isollaric wind acceleration" - and I have noticed that this particular phenomenon has almost nill lead predictive skill. I've seen charts 'look' like an event could unfold... but they seldom do. Then, I'll be sitting there and the power will blink and it draws my attention to the sounds of turbine whirs over the house and I'm wondering if there was a wind headline out of nowhere. We never seem to verify the front-side winds as others have noted, the WAA terms ...yeah, that's probably related. I suspect that backsides have some magic ratio of lapse rate destablization and surface mass restoration, as two separate but comparable metrics. If they "intersect" ( so to speak ) that region has a shot at bending the forest tree lines seemingly out of no where when the col of the low pressure center moves off that region. But that's speculation. This system does begin to look like a chance of iso. wind pulse to me though... As the close approach under a warm advection layer does seem to more abruptly require mass restoration .. and has a shot at abrupt cooling in the 0 to 5 km level when that happens. From a starting point of 970's to 980s mb pressure depths - even in the Euro's shallower depths, I think that's doable - there's a combination of signals super-imposing there. Then we need to ask how much? I mean ... going from light and variable near a low's center to even a mere 30 knots abruptly still qualifies as an iso. wind phenomenon - these speculative prose' do not automatically connote death and destruction, either - ha!

Nah. I say he likely had already wrecked a half dozen St Pauli Girls before that post..

Yeah those seasonal docks and loosely moored camp ground row boats might end up in lyrical lore alright

Hard to know if this is just and artifact of the GFS being the GFS ... but it is true - chilly air masses predominating the end frames of the last many run of the operational version actually. Frankly ...the Euro's been persistently trying to cool N/A off and has -20 C at 850 by Day-la-la range over western JB on the 00z/somewhat so on the 12z isn't exactly arguing with that idea either. It may be worth noting that the EPS had been flagging slightly amplified +PNAP look. The GFS teleconnectors have been doing the typical transition season two step and have been hard to glean a signal out of, but the EPS "might" just be slipping out in time. The MJO/recurve cyclones are not hurting either. interesting. This 18z run is veritable winter west pattern beyond D7 really .. Open wave flow type though, perhaps favored for reasons I'm getting sick of discussing but... having perpetually reloading sub 540 dm thickness spread out over Canad and knifing synoptically into ORD and feeding western Ontario blue bombs on a periodic scheduling is winter either way -

Actually after closer inspecting it looks like it's wrong in a textured way ... giving the illusion of being better because of offsetting errors. Ha. I mean it's still trundling around with which faux center to hone. Its creating convectively induced meso-beta-scaled circulations, and then wave-interfering them with one another, such that the total stays a little weaker... when they may not even exist in reality. and what are we/I doing anyway .. The NAM beyond 30 hours ? we never should have ventured into any discussion and I'm a sucker-

I kind of like this NAM solution better - ... It still has the silliness with the CF low foisting up the eastern limb of the total circulation, but at least it isn't using that as the dominant focal point when all the U/A forcing is back west... It's a better solution at least, tho perhaps not there.

Just so we're semantically clear... by "pedestrian," we ( or I, anyway) am not intending the violate the sanctity of the parade goers in here, and/or NARCAN anyone's weird joy-circuitry they get out of the modeled specter of a storm. For our location area, compared to anywhere else - save NS ..NF, some parts of NW Europe and the Berring archipelago - pedestrian is nasty by any other standards. Pedestrian for us is just not historic. Think of a blustered intersection where rain-coat clad people are fighting a bit with umbrellas trying to turn inside out, but the commute is still doable. That's what I envision as an average/pedestrian system for our region of the world. That said, I take it the 18z NAM shaves some potency off the drug without even looking. Because the sudden dearth of discussion is usually telling - ha. There should be an internet law, that anyone histrionically involved with inflating the significance of something, has to keep posting with substantive analysis when said something is less or else they lose access.

Probably sooner than people think at that... a year with "as much" ice as 2012 will become the anomalous summer - Eyes roll .. ones with dim electrical circuitry in the brain box they serve, but this list of ice loss years provided by Bluewave ? I am pretty sure they were all ahead of early forecasts ... Please correct this if I am wrong - no ego to bruise here - but I was under the impression that we're witnessing acceleration over the earlier scientific reasoning/prognostics from years ago. And if so ... it would be illogical to assume we won't keep accelerating - not without sufficiently compensatory and cogently veracious reasons to do so.

Ssh... Don't NARCAN the mini-van drivers while their toddler's in a square mouthed rage .. because when you jolt them out of their high they can be down right visious

Well, three runs of the Euro, with three different solutions. Oh there's a common theme for inclemency with some kind of storm, of course. But this is also a demonstration of continuity issues. But, seeing as this is the drug of choice for a lot of users in here - we'll leave objectivity out of it.

GFS ... the ensemble mean appears to contain some members that are down into the 970 to 975 mb level. But, since the mean is also 984 and positioned slightly east of the operational, I'd say the places the operational run somewhere mid-grade when comparing to the members. For the storm mongers .. the spread is smeared slightly west so that's something to watch -

Yeah and I mean it could still detonate a deep nuke but the mid levels forcing the rising motion of the air would have to be deeper in latitude and approaching more from the SW/SSW.. Therein we get into the W-E progressivity vibe in the atmosphere and this initially an open wave coming through the Lakes that deepens and 'fake' closes off but gliding over the top of the still seasonally expanded subtropical ridging exerting from S...

Lol! Spent all morning trying to reach folks with this message in War and Peace and well... sometimes simpler is better

I was talking to Don about this last week - I think - ...about how 'less relevant' the specific comparison is to 2012 or other notable nadir years, vs the general distinction - which is more indicative of the status. It's a logic principle... but, it's important for conveying to a public hell-bent on using any means plausible to bend/rationalize this into being something else. Being a little sarcastic there/here ... But, the point I was making then - as is illustrated above - is that it is less important that 2019 did not absolutely bottom out below 2012, as much as it is important that it fits snugly along a trend line that is going to hell ... This record above, is just as achieving in paving that course -

I'm not sure I have a problem with this ending up being a middling low that passes inland. Perhaps folks are rusty? - we need this seasonal "primer" to lube up the gears of obviousness again ( for when this sort of eval has got a chance to mean anything worth while haha). But all tech rhetoric aside? There's really no cold air in place. Cold air below 700 mb is a damming... and, it supplies a focused frontal slope around the traditional interface axis oh... circa southern NJ to ACK ... If there is a strong low level thickness packing along that land cold air to warm oceanic interface, than as the Q-G forcing encroaches from the digging trough, the excited inflow then incurs upon that elevated slope, and it makes UVM go nuts - because of the conversion of latent heat to heat of condensation adding lift...yadda yadda yadda the low at the surface tends to organize under that UVM "chimney" etc etc.. But none of that can happen here/given what's up in the models. So, the low can move a bit more non-traditionally along an axis that is more directive of what is happening purely at mid levels -

In any case ... this NAM -focused speculation and analysis is intriguing, but as some of these more recent poster's are exposing/hinting toward ... there is a velocity contamination/bias in the general circulation theme that hasn't really gone away - I'm wondering if a NAM tucked in and slower deep layer evolution really fits here. The NAM solution(s) are either A, onto some physical means to compensate for that W-E smearing of a speed rich field, or, B, is not conserving that, which is empirically and modeled to be the case by the bevy of guidance. The Euro being perhaps mid way between the GFS and NAM is what it is ..but I see it's backing off on the intensity between 12z yesterday and 00z last night, as both unusual discontinuity for that particular guidance inside of D4.5, but also a signal that this is an unusual scenario and even the more sophisticated tools are less than ideally handling. The usual nature of it is that we are rich beyond the dreams of avarice with mid level mechanics, but there's really nothing but weak baroclinic gradients between BTV and Gulf Stream in the lower troposphere ( compared to typical bombogen set ups... I mean there's some, sure - ). With all that potential and not much to drill the cyclogen down to the surface, the NAM ( and to some extent all of them ...) seem to be latching onto geese farts ( thank you Weatherwiz!) and going "butterfly effect" with them. The NAM's variation on this is to take either a convective fed-backed low over the deep SE, or ...if it somehow manages to evolve a hybrid TC in such short order ( dubious as an undertaking...), it uses that feature to do said drilling - which having that much DPVA and Q-G forcing ridging off the upper M/A ...it's more than happy to do so. The problem: is its surface reflection in the deep SE even real? Good question... Now cast that - Personally I feel the GFS may not be a bad way to go. I'm utterly sick to the point of throwing hands at the velocity surplus at all scales and dimensions we've been plagued with during autmns and winters ... now looking back to the late 1990s and it's increasingly the base-line character of the larger planetary circulation over this side of the hemisphere ( I haven't honestly focused on SE Eurasia and/or middle latitude Asia but I suspect it's observable there...). And these system embedded in fast flow ... it just seems the NAM, perhaps for not being a Global-scaled tool and having a finite domain space... maaaybe just allows it to 'get away' with not conserving the speed overall of the flow for complicated reasons with velocity/mass and R-wave distribution..

Yeah ...a lot of the issues with this - in the modeling I feel - is that the thickness gradients in the low levels are effectively meaningless - they are missing .. Those surface to 700 mb frontal inclinations are critical in the vertical structure of cyclogenesis' in general. Similar to why in April sometimes, a bomb on the mid range charts as suggested at 500 mb level, has a comparatively amorphous looking surface reflection - only here...we are seeing this in a surface/sourcing that is warmer. This system, as is, appears to have a ton of mid level kinematic power ... the Q-G forcing is huge... but, in the absence of crucial surface to 6km ( ~ ) frontal tapestries, the models are producing micro lows embedded inside a general region of lowering surface pressure - building without a foundation in a sloppy metaphoric sense so they don't know where to foot/focal point a low. And, because the thickness is more homogenized, these nodes like 'mimic' warm core thermodynamics. I don't believe 'warm core' is really what is going on - what is going on is ... this scenario is systemically lacking the lower tropospheric frontal components, such that most quadrants around the cyclostrophic region are the same temperature/dp layout which is something we see more typically in purer tropical/barotropic systems.

Seems clear to me the “models” already have. this particular run of this model appears to be an outlier solution fwiw. Things can change if the others come around. My guess is they’re going to have similar solutions though if not tonight theyll go back to it

What’s the source of that… I mean that could also be a troposphere fold

Just from looking at the 500 mb evolution it almost looks like -I thought - convective feedback at first and then the low gets relayed into the troughs quasi-g forcing. The other aspect is that the entire structure this thing is much slower than the global models in this run

We have yes. Point?

What does any of that and your snow experience have to do with fast flow? u seem to be taking some kind of exception to the notion of a fast flow like you don’t want it to happen ...?more than analyzing objectively/considering weather can so I’m done with this conversation.