Typhoon Tip

Oh absolutely ... that's been part of the advises in recent days, too - not just the pump breaks and try to keep one's undy lumps from jumping out of their flies ... but, we've also been spending time elucidating what needs ...if perhaps "could" take place to make impact farther up the coast more likely. More N/stream earlier in the game would crucial in that (I think..) as you say, a steeper incline west would veer the deep layer over and off the EC ...such that whatever ultimately detonates there would lift up more.. .Plus, the feedback is that it's stronger - I also don't necessarily see the N/stream jet branch that is ESE through Ontario as a negative... pending it behaves of course. The flow in its self is really no different than the southwest arc of a "50/50 low" outlined by DT (also Kocin/Ucellinin) et al over the years... We just see it in the runs now as a L/W axis less a closed big maritime cold transporter - both serve the same sort of purpose. The key there (however) is that it needs to relent .. I've seen those do so like ...four hours before go time on coastals in the past, and then suddenly the shield surges in so it can wait to tape - To your point(s) ... more N/stream perhaps a touch earlier and let's see if we can relay a bit more in situ mechanical strength over southern Cali

The strike-through still somewhat suggests a reliance to find some bigger solution when that happens, and that's not/should not be the impetus ...to do that. Also, if there is a substantive modulation that is destined to take place when these features of importance get physically sampled ... it may actually take a couple.. few runs actually, to fully mutate. These features have dimension in free space ... and take time to pass through grid points ... so it's not going to happen instantly. Sometimes the changes can be seen in shorter amounts of time, sure... but a single cycle is unlikely.

Agreed ... I began emphasizing the assimilation vs physical sounding stuff like four or five days ago -... That's not to toot horn, buuuut, too many posts don't appear to reflect those concepts are in the gears of the individual perceptions and mental processing before they make whatever post they are making. And so, it's not just me ... You, NCEP... Nick, Chris... Scott... repeatedly over and over again becomes a valid mantra that this gunk is coming off the Pacific at shallow trajectories, such that all players really are not in the physical sounding (unfortunately.. ) until some three days lead. I think people need their dystopian and/or drama drug and they channel the models for it.. I often wonder if the model animation movie is more important to many folks than even the event its self - ha. Be that as it may, ... in a situation like this, that "high" of opening the models and seeing a 7 isobar contoured hornet sting on E of the Del Marve with -10C of Logan ...doesn't get to happen for seven straight days of cycles... So it's really quick similar in a lot of ways to perpetuating a withdraw syndrome. Anyway, ...I agree with your implicit suggestion that this may all come together ... late. Boxing Day was a < 60 hour correction if I recall - not an analog in any stretch but just to show. I'm > 90% confident that the posting tenor in the 12 hours just before the come-back began, the nadir in mood in here was just ... fantastically depressing Or not... All this stuff could come into the soundings and it does nothing to modulate favorably...or even less - have seen that before.

Can you imagine the crickets in here from VA to Maine if ...yeah, coastal rain 38 F wind - enters the trumpets: muah muah muaaaaah Phew! good thing all that hand-wringin' consternation got a storm to happen, huh. 'Cept, there'd be that one person that actually appreciates weather for weather phenomenon wondering why no one else's postin -

Very odd look on this Euro run ...in the extended. it's like there are no rosby waves ...just S/W's - not sure I've ever seen a model fail planetary mechanics quite so prodigiously ... heh Maybe that's how the end of the world first turns up... inexplicable Meteorological environmental models that show a giant hole in the head

Hate to say ... still seeing velocity surplus issues with the GFS (and the GGEM too) that is lending to their smearing initial cyclogenesis quickly east and sort of dissecting it from the deeper layer support. The GGEM has a mid level wave mechanical issues in deciding how much so to phase or negatively interfere ...netting a weaker over-all system on this run. The GFS also has less N/stream ... owing to it's straight east out to sea solution; however, that doesn't really fit very well with PNAP/NAO status at the time... Euro may clear things up but it'll prolly have it's own notion on these various fields. December 9-10 is a hot mess!

Like I said earlier ... the GGEM is the only model that's consistently showing much impact this far up the eastern seaboard over many cycles.. this one is no exception. Which may or may not fit in with folks' preferences for deterministic Meteorology ... probably less. Just sayn'.

As a plausible beginning metric ...what was going on with the ENSO state leading all the PD events of last century. I think there were several - if memory is too bad ... heh - that did a sharp N cut-off near Long Island of southern NH latitudes... where they hammered PHL.. interesting.

Yeah...just commented on that ... (late to the party this morning...) But I think what is important about that is the 'uncertainty' quotient for the panning of the Pacific Basin. I and others have been mentioning the data assimilation ...and we all know that's sort of a perfunctory consideration at all times, particularly for these faster, shallow latitude wave patterns ... but the reminding is warranted in this case because it appears this is a situation that is quite sensitive to subtle variance. It's sort of a 'needle threader' in some ways, just by timing stream interactions alone - ..which is crucially connected to sampling. As an after thought ...as recently as the Boxing Day event ... "recently"/ heh, wow... time flies.. but that is an example of whiplash correction? You know..in some ways, this is as much predicting model corrections.

What will role eyes but is still true whether the compartment behind those eyes resonates or not, ...is that the GGEM is the only model that hasn't gone completely flat with that Dec 9/10 deal going back some seven cycles or so. Not that it helps determinism - just sayn' The Euro did look as though it morphed a 'little' more interesting, too. As I'm sure you and everyone else is aware, the GFS and it's parallel joy-toy still are mightily suppressed ... beat goes on. Yesterday I experimented in terseness in hopes that anyone's attention span would read more than three key words deep... but I'm not sure if it was ever bothered with. The keys to the amplitude in space on this thing is entirely assimilation and sat sounding -attributed/related. Then... using those to correctly model the entire circulation medium of the Pac Basin gets more dicey than desired.. There are wave mechanics bullying in off the Pac ... kicking Dec 9's parental wave into gear, and the nature in which that interaction takes place is critical. This entire scope of moving parts does leave a little bit more margin for error - which...case in point, seeing variances in the Euro /GGEM ... hearkens to the variability. Long of the short, I said Wednesday morning we'll probably see a particular uptick in coherence among the guidance. And even then, .. the 00z Euro shows at 120 hours a subtle albeit noticeable increase in mid-stream mechanics being injected through the lower Canadian Rockies,... that is offering a late phase option ...which is quite clearly why it has lifted a slightly more total potency 'that' much closer to Cape Cod through the period in question. That piece of plausible phasing energy might not be sampling entirely perfect as well... I think anyone giving up on this feature an idiot. I also believe that without the N/stream (or the intermediate stream(s) ) it does get harder to bring an event this far up the coast. So it's still on the fence.

The correct handling of the Pacific general circulation noise is crucial to the December 9 thru 12 range over eastern middle latitudes of N/A.. Right now there is a quasi closed important circulation being analyzed in the mid and upper levels situated ~ 120 to 130 W by ~ 35 N ... slated to cleave open and transform into an open southern wave. This feature(s) then boots through the lower western states and ends up 'squeezing' through the TV. The amount of squeezing is important. The flow is relatively compressed back east over the TV/ lower OV and MA already. It is not abundantly clear whether the wave can maintain more cohesive identity as it encroaches over these regions. the moving parts that determine that destiny - and I welcome other observations ... - are: 1) the feature near 125 W/35 N, itself. If that is stronger, it can offset the background negative wave interference as described over TV/OV/MA ... how much/how little having distinct feed-backs on any cyclogen position/intensity etc.. 2) the entire circulation medium west of said feature closer to the date-line and beyond... WPO-EPO arc it you will; that region is sending subsequent full latitude wave spaces through the HA longitudes (which ...ultimately starts the booing process for 125 W')... If too aggressive, that has a transitive effect on 125 W ability to conserve it's own mechanical power as it comes E. because more amplitude doing the booting means that the wave lengths are also negatively interfering from the W as well... That would cause the 125 W to attenuate that much more. This type of attenuation is sort of "invisible" for lack of better word, but is has to do with wave mechanics in a fluid medium - when one superimposes over the other, you may not 'see' the offset or reinforce. ...from what I can see... the 00z operational Euro was the more conserved with the local mechanical layout of 125 W's vestiges as they come east. The GFS and it's Parallel version were less in that regard... However, perhaps owing more to #2 above, there have been runs in the last 12 cycles that showed more western N/A ridge popping polarward on the heels of 125 W's ejection E... as Pac influences may instruct/correct that direction, which consequentially gives/gave more positive feed back ..resulting more prodigious cyclogen/coverage ... Cannot rule that out. The corrections - if so - could be borne of both assimilation idiosyncrasies and/or just emergent. So I'd put the 'threat' (for lack of better word) greater than negligible for Dec 9-12 at this time, but that we'll abruptly enter a higher confidence time Wednesday morning.

Really ... regardless of all protestation ... or the veracity of those, the over-arcing plot facet of the Global Warming novel being written over the last .... (really, discrete science would argue it began prior even to the Industrial Revolution) ... hundred years is that Humanity has become a real geological force. A Terra-forming one, and of paramount importance - quite plausibly dire consequence - unintentionally. Stands to reason.. If it was intentional, the 'enforcer' might actually have some idea how whatever it is they are doing is going to actually force the result they want. Philosophically, the goal of Humanity, for any species in the survival vs favorable adaptation model for that matter, has always been to transfer the survival proxy from nature into its own control. Human kind has done remarkable things to that end ... unfortunately, to their chagrin, not free of taxation to the grander holism. "Gaia" It is true that there are forces in nature that are capable of driving evolutionary changes ... other than those purportedly of Human design-leading causalities. I don't know how/why that logically justifies continuing along a harmful course, though. Particularly, if/when there is plausibility for harm; if/and when evidence begins to even argue the course is the cause for said harm. In either case, you stop, until you prove you are not the problem. It doesn't logically justify ... period. Either doing the act, or not compensating when there is power to help at one's disposal ... both arrive one to the same result. That is the fundamental flaw in the "idiocracy's" mantra of defenses (deniers) that it's not Human activity; Oh, these are natural cycles. Moreover, Humanity is part of nature - we are therefore very much a natural cycle that is destroying ... Humanity. Along with the Extinction Event that's golly gee wow, really happening. Some times it really is okay to actually call someone names, because there can be no constructive definition for that degree of moronic absurdity... Other than to assume, we must be slated for a Darwinian end-game.

maybe we'll get a saved by the angel bells Christmas morning event again.

Fascinating .... 21 count twister swarm straifs Illinois. Heard of concentrated tornado clusters ... don't know about 21 certainly not this time of year at that latitude.

I wonder when the 'internet stalker' label gets foisted -ha. Who the f* care who said what? No one is taking any trophies away from here ...beyond some dependency for winning an accolade here and there? Okay - if that's what people really need. Maybe their "daddy" never gave enough of that. I don't know... I think Scott mentioned a relaxation in the pattern ... which has some semantic vulnerability, to which those that he has rubbed (possibly) the wrong way with his at times rather brash assessment of the tone and tenor on the forum and sober antithetic content ... (i.,e., nothing wrong with doing that!) they seem to be overreacting to said semantic points he made. Almost like a, "That's the last straw!" haha I'm a Met... by education and life long obsession to weather-related sciences. Earth and astronomy in general, actually... I can tell you, nothing Scott has posted in the past ten days, other than misinterpreted sarcasm and ribbing ... has been that far beyond merit. This thread needs some moderation like the old days of Eastern, before the "Lord Of The Flies" coup de etat -

Yup! great observation, dude. I was just commenting on the handling of the N/stream part of that era. There may be some chance for things to re-align more favorably in space and time...particularly, I was noting the need for the western ridge to really be aggressive in poking back N up the western cordillera - roughly ... D6. To state the obvious, that would help slow down the W-E (ness) of the flow up along 55 N and "maybe" just pretty-please-with-sugar-on-top phase more.

Interesting...that whole run is rife with chances, actually...

...Seeing the subsequent time intervals/handling therefrom... yeah, that's a subsumer into the Maritimes, a consequence of the N-stream being (perhaps) subtly differently handled for it's own headaches of spacial temporalities. "If If If" we are in the ball-park on this particular run ( ) ...then enters interest as to whether that N-stream interaction is correct. It's going to be a preventative or supportive... It can suppress, or..it can phase; particularly on the latter, if the backside ridge pops that much more, it will effectively "grab" any wayward polar/arctic mechanics dangling around the Canadian shield and send it south for merry go around of antics... But, that's all speculative, still in the envelope of plausibility.

Looking at this 12z operational GFS depiction for hour 144 and comparing the overall structure to the same time interval on the previous two cycles ... and tracing the events backward in time to their source/origin ... it's pretty clear there are substantial uncertainties as to what is ultimately going to get relayed off the Pacific ocean through the West. You guys are right that the ridge on the backside of the wave(s) pops rigorously (more so) than the 06z, but again,...that's the entire sort of 'interstitial' relationship between about 150 or 160 W through 120 W part of the PNA's domain/handling, controlling "weather" that happens (haha). Kidding aside, those differences ...both wrt to that and the wave mechanical power sampling, are obviously going to be key as to what sets up in the MV-MA and up the Coast later on next weekend.

People really do experiences a sense of exhilaration whenever that cinema portrays a bomb. Wow... that was fast. Instead pumping the meat, as Will oft' likes to recommend ... 'pump the breaks.' Seems apropos at this juncture. ... A little disillusionment is probably a good thing for this present era, when verification tendencies have recently trended toward LESS than the panache of D 6-10 suggestions in general. Or not ... go ahead and get our dopamine flush, only to maximize our fall if we like - up to us. I suspect people can't stop themselves, though. Be that as it may, that is D9 + and it's one run ...let's just keep that in mind, how ever difficult it is to do so. Trying to employ a dose of healthy skepticism to counter-act the drug of the models .... I don't see that general canvas of synoptic evolution out there in time as being very favorable for that 'needle thread' solution. Having said that ... needle threading means just that: in a hostile environment, getting anything to happen is an engagement of narrow tolerances, so to be far - we'll see. However, the flow initially (day 3-5) is too compressed... Heights over Florida and adjacent are lofty... and as this week's cold presses through the NP-Lakes and OV regions, it is speeding up the flow too fast for individual S/Ws... It's interesting that both the Euro and the GGEM are not seeing that, and are maintaining southern stream cohesion as they propagate what is really only a mid-range wave mechanics right through said compression. I can 'imagine' a way in which that is possible (as an offset); it may be ...the heights over Florida (used just for identification purpose - there's nothing inherent to Florida's existence) are in the process of differentiating lower, "AS" said southern stream mechanics are arriving..That sort of relay my give a faux impression that the mechanics are doing that but it's really a hidden larger --> smaller scale change if that were the case. So, we'll see where we go on modeling. Obviously...being D9 ...all this and everything governing will likely change anyway.

Yeah, the overnight numbers from CDC and CPC are in .. *my sources seem to wait until 10am the following mornings to flush those. JBenedet is right... if those tele's are any use, one should seek alternate channels for happiness and dopamine charging...ah-haha, that's the nice way to put it. Ironically, I mentioned needing a compelling reason...well - Upon even partially registering that sentiment, the typical NE sub-forum regular stops reading... But, if your eyes have come this far along these words ... this whole snow storm in November and the concomitant cold that came along and surrounded it ...it all struck me as really being in with the same tendencies we've seen since the year 2000 demarcated 'the era of the autumn snows' Will and I have expanded on this in the past ... at least for personal experience, the 1970's, 1980s and 1990s almost never snowed in October. Since 2000, almost 50% ... I'm curious what this really looks like against an expanded comparison...going back hundreds of years. It's an under-the-radar accomplishment, if (say)...in 200 years, there has never been a 20-year stint where it snowed in Octobers, 50% of the time. That's the type of conclusion that starts to push up an eyebrow or two that something is happening. Either way, regardless of exact cause of each, that is a fantastic turn of fortune for winter enthusiasts ... This year, instead of the temporal distinction of October... 'perhaps' just pushed off a month. But here's interesting aspect for me: whether it be 1986 or 2004 ... neither autumn necessarily parlayed to the ensuing winter ...

Yeah...I've noticed this lately... good point, too btw - The operational models have often at times (seemingly more so than usual) divorced from their own ensemble means and suggestions re the latter. At least in so far as the GEFs. I don't see the EPS hard numbers for the WPO, EPO... NAO. etc, but that sort of look you're pointing out, I have seen that be the case often since early November. interesting...

Interesting... I was just old enough to remember (as I loosely date myself) that era. Southern lower Michigan, Kalamazoo, in the weeks post the hyper bomb that went up west of the Appalachians ( I've extolled upon that event amply in the past...) that brought the horrific wind and snow and historic surface barometric pressure depths ... nothing happened the rest of the winter in the Great Lakes. Harvey Leonard did a presentation up at UML around 2003, discussing the dearth post that one ...and the latter February all-timer here off Cape Cod included. The consensus of the auditorium was coherent as there were a lot of uh-huh's and mm-hm's and whispered that's-right, radiating off the throng as he described 're-charging' synoptic phenomenon. What he/we/those with experience know to be true ...is really that big huge events tend to re-align the wave structure over our side of the Hemisphere and beyond; which probably more precisely to cause, it is the atmosphere in the process of reshuffling into a new paradigm that caused the storm in the first place. Bravo to Heather Archembault for taking what was intuitively known and/or suspected, and honing it's veracity via statistical inference/science. It may not be entirely obvious which indices were in flux when either bomb took place... but it is also fascinating that the Cleveland Super Bomb and the February Blizzard, were only some two weeks apart, and either could have been majestically keyed into a global event in their own rite. I have fragmented internal monologue in the past ...that there was just so much hemispheric potential that season with a modest warm ENSO actually differentiable (unlike today ...different argument/discussion) against a back-ground -AO/solar minimum frequency, that the whole thing effectively "split" ...less the Earth actually succeed in creating a Great Red Spot. But that's all fun Sci-Fi chatter... The point of this is yeah...big events do seem to herald 're-alignment' events at either the Hemispheric quadrature, or perhaps even larger, scales... And then once the new paradigm is realized, quiescence tends to ensue. Yet out here... the synoptic storm engine was able to churn out a season ender at least. I remember so vividly wondering if that would ever happen again with that house-sucker storm ... and as day after day after day turned into over a month of same sunny, light wind, slow snow pack decay, the era become like Postpartum. We did at last recoup one minor event in late Feb or early March; I almost wonder if that was like a redeveloper, and one in the same leading events. Mm. I'm gonna peruse the NCEP library on that - Those dullard days of Jan 30th through late February in 1978 ...that's really the seed of my modern day preference for nickle-dime winters, and why 1995-1996 is actually preferred over 1977-1978 in my personal favorites annuls.

Yep... there it is... the first sign that the big warm up is in trouble, if perhaps hinted. I would argue it's the second or third sign, actually, but that's complicated. But from here on, watch as said hint only grows into an ever-denied din. Until the freight train of actually verifying opposite the warm anomalies ( a stabbing cold pop chagrins ha ha) rumbles through those same dates ... At which time, the next big warm up is slated to ruin Christmas ... And around and around we go on the endless reel of imaginary disappointments. All the while... it never snows, ironically. For different reasons all together. Oy... the life and times of hapless soul whose plugged their joy dependency circuits into the vagary of the wind ... This could be a time to employ the ten-year old adage: find another hobby. We'll see... Being snarky there of course, but... if the warm-up does continues to abate? (...and that's still just a question, not a statement of fact or clad prognostic, just a question), I won't be shocked. I've stated my case for why I am not sold on it - or December being much of anything beyond very weak skill at this time. I admit that this paragraph means I'm riding the fence ...and that's good - I intend to mean just that; 50/50 in my mind. I suspect some Meteorologists are all in, some are backing down ...I'm not in refute or support respectively. Folks should try and process the following qualifier: These statements and exposed muses by back-office engineers of prognostic weather, they are always peering left or right along a spectrum of tendencies and chances. Not to knock on anyone, but constructively, I've noticed a tendency over the years in dealing with the Internet and the general population for people to often poach key words out of a turns of phrase, and then hyper-focus on that which tints said phrase to fit in with their sought interpretation. Anywho: ( (seasonal trend/model correction behavior) + Delta( EPO domain space handling) ) /2 ... don't really support the EPS... a product that is definitely not infallible at D10 to 20. It's skill isn't zero, though ...

Right ... seven days ago, he was talking about week 3 ... now, he's talking about week 2 - see how that works? But...just ball bustin' I wanna believe it - I really do... but, the warm up here in the nearer term slated for Sunday was originally, three weeks or so ago... indexed to be the same sort of big warm up to end Novie and head into December. As it came into range... we do the quick warm sector. We actually see this a lot in the spring ..ironically... where in late April, the models start flagging the season's first 10 day apocalyps... actually, come to think about it .. the models/indices start that behavior toward the end of February in years that aren't getting a late savior by a -NAO... Anyway, so as they near ... the 3 to 5 days of huge anomaly shrinks down to an 18 hour dirty warm sector and this did exactly the same thing. I need a compelling reason to assess this next series won't end up the same way. Mind you, ...I'm just going seasonal trend and owning to known model/index biases. There may be a big warm up out there... watch it be a January thaw. or whatever... I don't really have any horses in the race on this, but I'm interesting in just how relaxed the pattern will be before (I suspect) it reloads.