Typhoon Tip

For those of us that long for the warmth of spring and the return vibe of vitality, leading the anticipation of summer ... etc, etc, some encouraging signs from the 00z EPS mean that the recent Euro operational ideas of relaxing the seasonality/cool appeal in the east is now only a week away. I'm looking forward... because we can hand-ring and wanton lust for these -NAO but like this one hammers over heads and the lessen still fails to get through skulls ...the -NAO is not what people think it means for winter enthusiasts. It's a suppression signal ...as the lower/Mid Atlantic low escape and failure along the EC proves for the millionth time. Heather Archembault's paper from way back in the day explained statistically in fairly discrete results that the primary storm-loading pattern for the eastern U.S. is the PNA modality... with, as her conclusion paraphrases, a weaker corresponding similar behavior with the NAO. But, popular media and science-fad of the day seemed to flip this around and to this day,... approximately 1.5 generations-worth of individuals scientifically reared during that era, persist with that faux perception. The/her papers really just point out the the key to a large scale instibility is a disruption passing thru. It's really just using statistical methods to point out what is intuitively obvious ( to me..), but has it's huge value and merit in the scientific process. If a system reaches and equilibrium state, than it is quiescent and 'not storming' ... Then, something comes along to perturb the field ... cyclones results. That 'perturbation' of the field IS the changing index - the upward or downward moving teleconnector index means that there is something perturbing - that is why cyclones happen more frequently at the teleconnector inflection points. Since the atmosphere in the northern Hemisphere tends to move west to east at mid latitudes...it then adds to the intuitive notion that the PNA would be a better loader than the NAO... because the PNA comes from the west. The NAO probably has a better use as a 'modifier' ... destructive or constructively interfering with the PNA's signal(s) depending on which way its index is moving in tandem. Almost like the MJO; when the WPO/NP/EPO are out of sync with the MJO, the MJO doesn't seem to have much echo in the flow as an enforcing agent... Yet, when they sync up, look out! Synergy results and the flow characteristics can get extreme in either direction. The NAO probably adds ( not in the exact same way...), but offers modulations that help/constructively interfere's with troughs, or vice versa... to mention, helping cold loading in front-sides to enhance baroclinicity/thermodynamic instability that way...and on and so on. Anyway, this NAO migration that's going to unfold over this next 3 to 5 days ...hearkens my attention back to this annoying misconception that was handed down by early assumptions in the late 1980s and early 1990s and everyone ran away with... I'd take a pulsed rising PNA with antecedent -EPOs any day before a NAO does anything as a winter enthusiast. But at this time of year...I don't want either. I'm hoping the NAO relaxing while the PNA fails to actually go positive, as per last night, are indications that the EPS/Op. Euro are onto a warm mid month

Two runs in a row and the Euro's D7-10 exit to spring

Nah...the sounding's probably thermally straight up to 700 mb... 37 putrid butt-bangin' hell - It's amazing leaf out ever happens in this hemispheric scaled, meat-locker tuck geography called New England

Welcome to New England's uniquely sorted spring charm -

Looks like the NAO is betraying y'all in incremental run erosion ... experimentally seeing what it takes to give up - then it'll bring it back once NCEP sees only melancholy posting tenors. Y'allz jump on board and get excited, then everything misses -

It's weird ... I'm not sure if this is just acclimation phenomenon as it pertains to my person but ...it seems we keep putting up rather lofty monthly temperature anomalies and I don't feel we've had much 'warm' appeal to it. That goes back years too... Like the summer a couple clicks ago, when the big eastern ridge was modeled for the first week of July - when the GFS was MOSing 115 ( ) and we rightfully suspected its error. Turned out to be a 96/72er heat wave which is plenty hot but... the summer as a whole didn't seem outlandishly warm - humid and dewy after that, but not appreciably "hot" ...yet, the numbers seemed to suggest Venus came to Earth. I think part of this is that the overnight lows are skewing perception? I guess I don't care enough to look into it... But +4 to +5 above average ...'seems' like we should have had more days warmer than full sun 44 F'ers and that's what I remember the majority of afternoons...otherwise, we've even logged a snowfall in there. We did do a 70 day though... Maybe 40 years ago, this March would have been down right balmy by common experience... But not today? And sensibly, this was not 2012 - it almost seems like this 2020 March achieved those lofty numbers by successfully evading a pleasant month - culminating in a global Pandemic -forced shut-down of Humanity to put the dog shit icing on the fecal cake gestalt that is clearly out attack our species...

Tomorrow is a downslope dandy day.... That's got super-adiabatic surface T's written all over it.. Prolly is full sun, light wind 62 F right to the coast.

Just speaking to the operational Euro's 00z 03/26/2020 solution ... I thought the block looked less... D-7-10 clearly shows that collapsing into the west Atlantic basin perennial ridge...BUT, there is a better homage to a +PNAP and cold loading into SE Canada, too ...so, perhaps either way. The GGEM was also looking rather betrayed with the scale-degree of NAO too... heh. The other thing I'm thinking, even for the Euro ...all these guidance' are going to prove again that they suffer sun-normalization at a hemispheric scale ... can't be avoided given the current state of tech art in modeling and the fact that it's after the Equinox. The modulation in the physics is an 'acceleration' of sort, albeit subtle... it is a stalker to cold solutions. I have seen countless D 9 deep 500 mb solutions at this time of year, that look like an assumption of a deeper surface evolution would be fine. But what ends up happening is strong mid level anomaly with weaker pressure responses underneath... kind of grapple showers in the hills and cool rains showers under pan-cake shallow toppers. What happens is the baroclinicity gets normalized by punishing irradiance in the days leading. Not sure why the models don't seem to handle this kind of "synergistic" reduction in the barclinicity in spring so well, but even here, ...that deep trough the Euro engineers ends up with a broad, but less deep low comparatively... That's sort of a hint some of this is happening- That all said...we've had blizzards in early April... not discounting that climo either ... It's really like everything, it's a processes of dwindling probabilities for returns at this time of year...and if something does happen in early April, it just means that the anomaly was sufficient to offset seasonal forcing -

-NAO however ... the modeling for that particular index has delivered more betrayals than I care to count. Also, it is the time of the year where faux modes are more common. That said, the best way to get late March/early April event would be to have that GEF's derivatives actually take place, so if one is holding out hope ... it's a good start to at least see both agencies crashing the NAO index from +3 all the way to -2 ... That, while is matched with operational runs depicting west-based blocking nodes. Too bad.. everything about reality is dour .. it's weird. Pandemics and no winter, and no spring -

Perfectly fair assessment of when it is okay to 'apply biases' and when something only thinks it is - agreed

Yeah, one should not look at a 120 hour UKMET and take thermal fields verbatim - It's an interesting track and factoring known biases, the UKMET's decent too

looked okay to me - but thanks :/

This could not be a better year for irony if we get like an April version of 1888 and everyone goes above normal snow - oh man... I hope that happens

UKMET's decent too Will was mentioning a few days ago we'd might want to watch the 24th and indeed, it was in many ensembles then, prior and since... It's probably a rare thing to see this particular threat be inside of 120 hours in this particular year - ha!

It might be interesting to see the 24 hour DP curve. IT appears there may be a 'hockey stick' abrupt rise ... this meso-beta scaled low that brought the steady cold rain this morning is helping to delay the warm front - what's new. But looking upstream beneath the warm front that extends from N. Missouri to the Del Marva the whole region is unilaterally soaked in 65 F DPs and that's modeled to bodily foist up here. When/if the warm front does finally mix down, that might be trip!

I mean it was snowing cotton balls here at dawn and may nick 70 F tomorrow - so going in both directions really Ah yes ...the fickle days of March

ah why the hell not ... That ICON model dumps pillows on the interior Monday evening -

Did someone post a statistical run-down of the top 20 lowest snow return winters tending to be followed by above normal temperature summers? I may be imagining that but I thought I had seen that in here -

This is a really extraordinary Euro run depiction pertaining the D4 front. Friday 18z the temperature could very well be 75 or even pushing 80 F at ASH ( say...), and be falling through the 30s, 24 hours later.

yup ... been there for a while, indeed..

That's not a reason, though - what does that mean, after 20 years.. .It's a faux logic to break something that isn't broken. I hate that - if there is empirical evidence to support the position as being held by inadequate personnel, that is when you rebuild it. The 20 years is irrelevant. Now...one can argue that at age 42, the longevity is an issue.. yeah, granted. Quite true. But, patterning and real evidence is that this particular individual's future doesn't decline along the 'normal extinction of skill and usefulness' curve ( if we will...), that you normally get from other QB's. There's that, and, that gives time to repopulate the position - which that Tidman kid showed enough promise to be at minimum a stand in if needed, if not taking over. Patriot's fan base is a bastion for high- rootin' tootin' yahoos, too many of which are rah-rahing their way through any analytic regards to this/these questions, but the reality is ... there is a better way to manage this transition than forcing the team ( probably... but we'll see) down a five year road of rebuilding mediocrity. We'll probably never see a 6 super bowl future ever again. The reality is, the base-line probability is that any team is lucky to have one in five years...and the Patriots are probably now riding along that same curve. And they didn't have to... it didn't have to end this way... It seems like self-destruction is fad-cancer currently permeating all walks of societal reality these days.... This whole pandemic thing is serious, but not apocalyptic like the corporate media is cashing in on by creating this dystopian cinema. It seems it's part of the human equation, to want to disrupt good things destructively and force a reset - it's some evolutionary trick (probably) to prevent the tribe from gaining complacency during faux quiescence ( theory)

Tom Brady out according to his own tweet - could be a hoax to motivate reaction? ...but, given the last several months of fervor and tenor surrounding his free-agency, and to mention the SUPER attractive offence the can-do-know-wrong Bellicheck put together surrounding him last year ... probably this is destiny

depressing's what it is ... who the f 'wants' to offset record warmth now and gloat about failing to do so, in lieu of what, 41 by day over 19 at night? sun's nice i guess but it's wasted in this air mass.

This 12z Euro looks is operational turbo-suck across west Tx and Ok on D6

Well... I didn't say 'average' in terms of total - but yeah, 10 years