Typhoon Tip

That N/stream backside subsumer has been getting more aggressive in inches too - At this point (in this "defensively 86 able solution" ), it actually bursts snow over eastern zones as a polar low starves in the Harbor.

I suspect also the 1025+ mb nascent polar high that is borne of confluence/detailed handling therein has something to do with it ... This solution on whole wrt to the southern stream is really is not too terribly different then the 06z solution, with the obvious and paramount distinction being the cold, thermodynamic insert you're targeting ... being made available to the system, flipping colorized synoptic QPF charts to blue and attracting flies like the fresh stench of new elephant dung. Not to credit grab ... I don't give a schit but this has been inconsistently off and on in the last 8 cycles of this particular model ...don't know if this one should really be any more or less believable, not that anyone said otherwise. And I would suggest going back to 06z's run of the 10th... the model did almost the same thing - it's not the first.

For the general consumer ... https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf They're reporting ENSO neutral with also as you show up here, modest warming the equitorial Pacific ... *however, expectations are for El Nino throughout the next calendar year. Along with supporting data and so forth... My feeling is that too much emphasis has and is been(ing) placed on the summer thru autumn's ENSO status and how it will effect winter. Why? Not complicated really.. As the Hemispheric gradients steepen, that effectively activates the greater forcing tapestry ... (Uh, layout) In other words, neutrality doesn't intuitively suggest whatever we were seeing in those summer ending weeks and through autumn, has to be driving the pattern variances now. If the signal was more apparent earlier on, as the season's descent got under way...then thresholds and trigger points and so forth would have been succeeded and we might see some more obvious, correlated traits emerge. But, ...failing that (in the form of "neutral" - helloooo) gee... I wonder why we keep reading "...looks like Nina" or "...looks like Nino". Maybe it doesn't look like anything. I'm being snarky there a little of course... Yes, the leading atmospheric factors in the total ocean-atmospheric coupled model may try to 'bend' El Nino ...if indeed their "80%" chance parlays. And in that... maybe the winter overall gets better designed later in January ... Before that time, it's probably a coin flip pattern wiggling daily head-ache cornucopia of reasons to be irritable.

Fwiw - ...not much probably ... but, that means to me that there are possibilities on the table. That's my focus - not this downtrodden ...almost self-fulfilling prophecy of doom. You know ... I traveled through southern New Jersey for a stay ... spending time there in/around the Philly culture prior to a stop at Va. Beach over Thanks Giggedy ... and sampled in their ethos. I can tell you, Patriot's fans carry no torch that burns as brightly and hot as the self-loathing they have for their NFL team of recognition: the Eagles. They just one the g-damn SB 10.5 months ago and it's like they've been submerged in Hades poop for eternity .. my god! That? It is heaven compared to the woe-ism that goes on in here at times wrt drama-fixation in the models and more specifically (perhaps) ... winter ilk of weather. Interesting... Be that as it may, ... what seems like forever, it won't be long before this is us,

Agreed ... in a general sense. I don't see this pattern as altogether removing chances for a wintry profiled system here or there, but ... as much as Scott is clearly demonstrating a predilection for marketing a warmer destruction of Christmas and weather-bobbies/winter enthusiastic hopes and dreams ..he's unfortunately correct. Things could flop warmer too. I see the models as probably having more so than normal mid (and definitely then, extended range) issues in this regime ... oh, say east of 100W or so. I've referred to this as an 'unmanned fire-hose' in the past. Bit of hypothesis but, because the primary forcing/nodes that are guiding the basal Hem. wave spaces, are anchored so far back west over the western/central Pacific... by the time we get this far east of those comparatively immovable structures, perturbation becomes more significant. Each models and their runs are "spraying" solutions. (How's that for really nailing down a metaphor! ) Case in point ... I just reviewed several different modeling sources from the 00z cycle and every single one of them does not share a point of view with any other. It really is straw picking what's going to happen with this next bit of amplitude ejecting east over the weekend. ECMWF != GGEM != GFS != ECMWF's ens mean != GEF's ens mean != ... n All the while ... neither solution offers winter hope. There was some hints by the GFS yesterday ... one in particular was pretty bright, too. But since it's like it couldn't wait to erase it. In the spirit of commiseration: We're just in a funk. They happen from time to time. None of those modeling sources give any sort of entertainment to winter enthusiasm, yet purport a lot of variation? That mocks! Like, they're throwing a myriad probabilities at us yet can't find one that includes any entertainment value ... right. You cant' have the girl you've crushed on for the last ten years, but boy, have I ever got a delicious assortment of cankled hill-girls for you! Lot of unwanted variety ... that's being lanced by schit luck. Then, we (or at least " I " ) have endured some five recent mornings under 15 F at dawn in a row, so it's not like there's a dearth of cold air. And it's comical to me ...in an under-the-radar way, that the spatial-temporal spans between rain-cold-rain-cold is variant. At least if it was every three days, that dependability fits intuitively into a "pattern". But when the distance between events varies ... pours rubbing alcohol into the schit luck cut. Going from a rain-cold pattern into a lull while what, a brand new rain-cold pattern figures out how to orient its self is uniquely targeting patients. Ha! These funks can break down ... Yes there will come a day when the break down is permanent ...oh, in 50 years of GW acceleration perhaps... But for now, we bide time. It's just those times seem to stretch like hallway nightmares.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/video/animals/squirrel-estimated-to-be-over-2-feet-tall-captured-on-camera/vi-BBQiAuX

Depends... There is no one size fits all EPO ... it's a conditional/circumstantial correlation to temperature anomaly distribution (lag) when the -EPO(+EPO) sets up... For example, on-going +PNA changes the map. If/when that Pac-North American pattern is pushing up the mid latitude western ridge, and it joins with a -EPO ...the subsequent cold loading will not be favored west. The trick is... the PNA and EPO have a robust negative correlation over the longer term mean. That means...when the PNA is positive, the EPO tends to be negative... However, often times the two domains will split, and the EPO will feature more of a blocking node as opposed to a full latitude Rossby wave wall with a full bird ridge. When this form happens, the cold may spill S in the load, and then the -PNA --> -PNAP construct then draws it into the circulation out west. I'd say of these two formulations,... "IF" a -EPO does develop, the former has a fair shot - in which case the cold loading may spread east more liberally. The other trick is whether the -EPO is real or not. It's a new signal... not a lot of weight in terms of continuity so ... taken fwiw. And these 'new' signals sometimes don't make the cut. To be honest, I'm more intrigued by the AO collapse ...that's been in out there fore a weightier duration/# of nightly turns. And, now the NAO ...if perhaps concomitant (but not always..) has been hedging that direction too... If the PNA does roll back positive in four or five days, and the NAO does in fact pop off some ridging in the western end of that domain space, than this relaxation thing may go down more as an interval between cold periods - which may be all that it was anyway. volatility either way. I'd go with warm ...ah ... ish, for a time, but not hopelessly so

Also, again ... the 00z Euro and the 06z GFS are offering 'hints' at colder lower boundary layer over/during the weekend mess. I believe the complexion of that event/system is still negotiable.. That look is precarious for a 'tuck' event and in fact, the 06z GFS in particular ... it goes out of its way to flash. Deeply enough with cold for a burst of S as far south as southern VT/NH ... The 2-meter temperature product toggling really represents that backward sloshed ageostrophic invastion ... which is actually interesting just because the GFS typically has that BL warm bias. So ~ mid way through the event and what is likely low 40s with ongoing light and moderate rain could suddenly tank EEN-ASH and possibly FIT-BED and eventually into the ooze axis of eastern ORH Hills given time. It's fragile as an overall scenario ... for winter enthusiasts, don't count on it. However, the 06z solution, albeit not impossible, is one in many - it happens to be the most cooler profiled of those that begin hinting this in the cycles yesterday (Euro is/was included in the hinters). I mentioned the 18z last night was close. So we'll see how these details evolve. Sufficed it is to say ... we are all a little punchy and grasping for reasons to rejoice here, but this I believe isn't really that. There are certain markers about that synoptic evolution that are clad. For one, the flow over and across southern and SE Canada from Friday thru next Monday is not smoothed and laminar by any stretch. 'Get passed even November 1 ... and any tendency to 'buckle' that flow inherently prones SNE and all of NE/NYS to these sort of poorly modeled correction schemes - and guess what ? They can happen in an overall warmer than normal pattern, too. And do so without actually harming the warm pattern distinction. We have to consider that tuck/slosh-back phenomenon as a local climate variance ..idiosyncrasy if you will, and can actually be quite disconnected from the larger synoptic scope ... It has do with air-land interface at large scales and the fact that the geography from eastern Canada to ... interior NC actually... has a built in vector at all times .. It draws the lower troposphere SW at least excuse imaginable in that region and given any impetus to do so, and the warm pattern has no idea that the mice are scurrying under foot. It's actually overcome when we get heat in the summer, but it's still always there if muted. Beyond that ...as others have noted, there's an emerging colder look toward the end of the month. Does that time more than less well with the relaxation thing? I haven't been that close to the details on that particular vitriol. seriously though... the last couple cycles of the GFS operational really dome out the eastern EPO domain space before even the end of the month... The Euro operational even hints at that getting going after D8, too. I also like the fact that the wave placement does not have to mean the lengths are very stretched - ...so if there is a fledgling cold load emerging here maybe it doesn't head for the Great Basin first.

I'm less familiar with the local vernacular shenanigans as I perhaps should be as someone in and out of the forum-sphere for ... 10 years or more. Heh. But what is a "Leon" pattern?

They're getting the equivalence of a 'slosh back'/tuck situation down in lower VA/NC area... Neat to see that..

The 18z GFS did something the recent Euro runs have been subversively trending toward, and that is to raise eastern Ontario surface pressure as that southern impulse is arriving over the MA ... this run best depicts that ~ 150 hours... That's not far off Meteorologically from showing why at this particular latitude (to mention ..circumstantial geographic relationship to the continent), it's sometimes possible to make a little chicken salad out of a chicken schit pattern. It's not there yet and needs work, but at this point, touch more 120 to 144 hour confluence roll out up there and we have a weird under cut ageo thing to deal with. Also, 'nother long long shot, but (other's might have mentioned?) there is a Solstice sort of bell saver also presented for say west of ORH in the deep interior.

Awesome! Love the Schadenfreude. In a holistic sense, would one rather not have won the SB against the Seattle Seakhawks a couple clicks ago? In a lot of ways, this is sort of karmic payback for the memes that swept sport-nation gloating in a particularly egregious way as Seahawks fans were videoed reacting to that fatal interception, when they, too, were already lubed up and stroking the one-eyed monster of victory. Oh how the blues do ache, eh? Buuut, in some sense of it... The Patriots played so friggin' abysmal on Defense, all day ...right out of the gate, that, and TB taking a sack just before the half at the 10 yard line no less... Steven leaving 4 points of missed kicks... Not just the D... there was a litany of reasons why the could have lost alone; but altogether? They should have lost... sorry to use the word twice so I won't. But ...they got what they deserved. And if there was ever going to be a game where a miracle ending would be warn by the other shoes, today was DEFINITELY, eerily setting up for it the whole way.

Is the ice actually thick enough already ?

It's this hang up with snow ...that, or a kind of dystopian lust that is pretty clearly (fascinatingly) channeled through model tools ... I think it's part of (in the minimum, damn similar) to the same pan-societal fixation neurosis that the internet and portable technologies is being investigated ...but that's a different discussion. Sometimes I wonder ... if it snowed because of iron-work, if the consummate user-ship might congregated at a saline torch convention and wouldn't even be in here where weather is covered (or supposed to be) - haha. Myself included, I admit to allowing it under my own radar dish, too.

Not to come off high handed, but ... that really wasn't in the cards going back several days in my mind. I've never been a big fan of the over-the-north-pole savior scenario. Mainly because I've never actually seen that happen. heh. It'd be awesome to see that! Mostly ... I've seen variations on subsume scenarios - it's when/where a more southerly S/W trekking east under a western end of a SPV. It fragments and comes south ... dives into the backside .... the two fuse ... go nuts etc. But even more open-waved, two and trip. steam phasers carry some semblance or echo of the same thing, just maybe less coherently obvious because the N-stream isn't bifurcating before hand. But if different scales are blown out and less smoothed, it may demonstrate the similarities more clearly. As it were... I believe what happened leading this this situation in the south was that the circulation N demoed some idiosyncratic timing, on whole - which even if an embedded SW/ wave was coming it wouldn't have been available. The NAO index flipped, too ...maybe related... Either way, N jet is rolling out as this thing arrived. That "allowed" the southern stream to remain in tact. To make sense of that statement ... when the band went N, the gradients overall become less in tandem... and that's allowing relatively paltry wind max(ing) to enter that region without getting otherwise lost like it typically would. If the relaxation hadn't happened... it might have even been less down S even. I jut think the models were dead wrong, all of them... when this was out around D8 or 9 ... which of course isn't really the 'fault' of the models given that range. But this thing just simply modulated and was handled well within a realistic model expectation, and the last four or so days of consternation we all took turns explaining how this "could" do x-y-z ... heh, which is a dangerous to do.

Really ... doesn't analyze that deep or strong... I guess circumstantially, snowing 6"in interior NC is teeechnically epic.

Depends on the context there ... If we mean axis to public/social services rural locations tend to lag. If we mean background, environmental toxicity ... rural areas are better. These distinctions are also thick with subordinate categories/sciences therein. Public/social services range quite a bit, from the general distribution of basic necessities that are provided via "the industrial food complex," (rife with it's own issues/offets), to access medical/health services and so forth. These standards do vary somewhat between rural and city ways-and-means of life, more than merely negligible at times. Of course, this is also an evolving ... the "access." With technology changing awareness scopes, and to some extent physic response times... society its self is changing - perhaps fast enough that this conversation could be moot in 20 years (if some holocaust doesn't neutralize the smoldering survivors back to pre industry first). But still, a town out in northern Nebraska may endure a plague for a considerable length of time longer than NYC ...before making the national news and/or an appropriate response is engineered. Stress in rural areas is less. It's complex... there's pros and cons to either. Probably... like everything, somewhere in between there is a narrow zone of habitability where benefits from organics and wholesome holistic living, has access to state of the art in medicine ... and social needs and conscience intangibles, poaching favorable life-style from both mediums.

Euro isn't showing much of anything that is in sync with the hopes and dreams of our beleaguered winter-seeking warriors, actually. In fact, ... extending the metaphor, it's really trampling on the backs of the wounded - so the opposite. Between ~ D6 and D10 ...when we were supposed to be maximizing this 'relaxation' or 'warm up' or whatever rationalization is presently used to offer delusion over despair ... the only thing stopping that period from being an out and out inferno (relative to seasonal norms for December ides), is that vestigial whirlpool filling it's slow death. Remove that from one's mind's eye and you're left with a huge sprawling ... very warm ridge in the charts. There's sort of a wrong-way-rub in there: warm-weather enthusiasts are getting screwed, too. That could otherwise be a spectacular late season Indian Summer. Unfortunately ... one being significantly tainted by that offset factor. HO, man... I always love it when the models (sometimes even 'the weather') f's over everyone, equally. What that circumstantially achieves is banality, specifically targeting individuals who engage in this ... compulsion to the prospective excitement and cinema of the models. ...Somewhere in there, there's even an interest in weather, too. Heh.

It's an unnervingly anomalous layout ... not sure folks really know why. Those values don't strike me as a western ridge producing PNA ... it strikes me as an entire hemisphere so far above normal, all fields, that they are just comparative to the 30 year averages and don't actually visualize a circulation type/construct.

Mm ... some 'chickens' like that

Well ... yeah to all that. Most of that was just my way of bitching and complaining about the horrible weather pattern… As in, so bad its causing an apocalypse of forumism I.e. sarcasm

The over-arcing purpose for having forums ... and rules therein, has gotten so apaplectically irrelevant (worst pattern since God invented sentiments ) that it really no longer has any effective meaning. Thus, regulation recognition/deferences have completely collapsed

yeah ... of three, that one was worst in this overall ordeal

I don't know if it's schadenfreude speaking or an overwhelming sense of justice seeking to point out a bad pattern... but I'd laugh if they white-rained down there. All the 'whaaaa' 's? oh man, would be priceless.. Well, anyway... one thing about this, the models did really well overall in depicting the pancaked solution. I think even the GFS was one of the first... I recall the Euro and the GGEM tried to back a tad on a run or two but the GFS (I could be wrong; don't get panties knotted; just the way I remember) has been solidly unwavering for three or four days of cycles.

nah... in all seriousness, too early for that. One up shot ... the pattern is fast in translation. That intrinsically means it can also change quickly at multiple scales, not just turning over events. It's just really hard to visualize that happening when in abuse, but it can ..