Typhoon Tip

Very remote chance of repeating +12 monthly departures - that was on par with a freak event - Ha, I wanna do that in July ahhaha

Inclined to agree ... (corrected below) Not that you or anyone else hasn't considered the following comment: It's an easy fix at this time range... no worries on that specific point-aspect. Let's get the 500 mb evolution squared away and we can work with those idiosyncrasies. (corrected below) Furthering thoughts/observation in general: It's D5 entry and early D5 exit, and a massive slow mover. When we start expanding spatially, and then include duration... we end up wrought with all kind of concerns - for obvious reasons. The usual 'over in 13 hours with the heaviest snow falling in 4 hours' type event is conceptually insufficient. You get into storm-specific eccentricities that cannot really be assessed in the deterministic effort. In other words ... snow totals? Good luck. A Euro solution probably froths milk shake air to about CEF, MA arcing to CON NH, with by virtue of intense CCB wind field being so systemically large, and any snow at all is thrashed into a bona fide blizzard/vis profile along the coast. But, we all caution, this solution is the fourth consecutive that's corrected NW and deeper ... and with the EPS showing a reasonably discerned trend toward more organization in the 00z cycle .. ( to mention, the D5-7 duh) no one is convinced this multi-cycle hint is finished constructing its self in the guidance. Also .. this is a subsume phasing and those typically end up nasty for someone. That subsume has been remarkably consistent as a point-aspect, too. Marine and surf being agitated by multi- tide cycles would be significant problem in the Euro solution ...even being 100 mi east of ideal in this particular cycle's synoptic evolution I suspect that would be a concern. Are there any Equinoctial issues? *BUT* if we get a Euro-esque system to move that slow and that deep, with that kind of deep layer total tropospheric response, it will deform/lift the sea-surface into a tizzy either way - normal tides might crush vulnerably shore points with toppling seismographic abyssal walls, regardless. Particularly if that same sort of solution corrects a mere 100 clicks to the west, look out. That would be bad ... The GGEM probably has moderate typical coastal concern. But, if the Euro solution backs so much as a 100 miles west, or slows down sooner, with that that bombogenesis scale and degree? (I'm seeing some 20+ DM total height evacuation across 12 hours .. and you enter that obscene virtual scale where descriptions fade to black...) You simply cannot do that without hell to pay - I'm not being histrionic here; that's just theoretical. It's probably the operation going too bananas, but... just in case it's heading toward reality .. yeah. The capture and stall so typical with these summit events in this solution is in the GOM ... a little N of climo for Hull Mass, but the previous 12 hour crawl by at 960's mb from S to N like that ...I don't even know if there's a good analog for comparison there. I'd say I'm improving my personal odds on this thing to 'cautiously optimistic' for a moderate impact event, that if graduates to actual optimistic, also carries with it a 'corrective vector' pointed toward major. Something like that... We are at the tail end of mid range, ...extending an event from entry point there, to the extended at early D7... It's a unique deterministic scenario... it's cross time scalar because of it plausible majesty in the total circulation of the hemisphere - and I also mind us of the philosophy that large looming scenarios tend to do this sort of thing, and show up with dictation in the runs...like big boulders rolling down the steam and the current of pedestrian events stem their ways around the proxy of the boulder as a metaphor. EDIT: .. having seen the surface evolution of the 00z Euro operation version on Pivotal with better resolution .. we made not need much west track adjustment after all - but the QPF seems oddly underdone given the mid level morphologies across that key 12 hours of that solution - I think that would be magenta in concentric f-gen bands amid a total S/+S CCB head.

Nick may have brought up the best point ...the whole manifold of the pattern is trying to move that whole +PNAP structure bodily into the Atlantic -

Heh... if that storm happens next week and saves a little face on the winter, the impetus there is "little" ... Mr Bouchard still fairly wins the necessity for this winter to go f- it's self.

Yeah ...but just my experience with the UKMET in that range ...it's like it piles up the flow near the end, and maybe correction east like said isn't a bad option - agreed. This is like a 59 yard field goal attempt to stop a 40-0 shut out the way this winter's been going -

If that run went out to D7 I bet it tries to lift that 995'er up the Hudson tho -

GFS is outpacing the southern stream with a helluva lot of total progressive manifold velocity - I mean it's moving/reshuffling the L/W straight on through over the top of the southern stream wave, and just leaves it behind. It's a cold front... The Euro/prior GGEM wanted to slow the N/stream down... It's hard to know if they are just playing into their own biases. Same holds true for the GFS. These models tend to meridian bias vs progressive tendencies, respectively, and it seems they are running with their own tendencies to do so. The GGEM's 12z run certainly bucks it's bias... Then there's the seasonal tenor of missing opportunities and least excuse imaginable ...and often, creatively seemingly to rub it in, too ( haha ). But, there are some vestiges about the flow overall that suggest its a bit more relaxed than a month back...and this is sort of transitioning into that regime this week. It may be growing pains/transition in the runs... The AO is trying to neutralize, albeit transiently this week ...and if that is so over our hemisphere, that actually helps because it eases off the isohypses counts between JB and the Gulf, and may allow a Euro like fantasy more truth. If the Euro comes in ...ah hell - it'll be interesting to see that run.

Ah ...no - these are just observations I'm making. Personally? Beneath 'cautiously optimistic' - as in not as much as that. The seasonal music doesn't groove like this is going to happen, and there's some objective merit to recognizing that trend without it being just histrionic/angry subjective hand waving - There are reasons this season sucked... as I've opined ad nauseam since ... oh, 2005 actually ...how the hemispheric winters are speeding up velocities because HC expansion/ing into the boreal heights and the flow has to physically speed up...and it's an interference pattern - for good or worse is a case by case scenario. This year's been heavily biased in negative interference...

NO shit ..wow, that look right there is a K.U. actually ... prerequisite set up - Also, folks... I did a total wave space comparison and ending on D5/6 that GGEM solution off 00z is ( per my own estimation ) aoa the 80th percentile a March 31 1997 analog. The Euro's phasing is more believable through D6 but it somehow manages to bi-pass the two streams when the day prior, they were already apparently/seemingly integrating along the MA.. Not sure that's physically plausible but it's like "dis - integration" ( literally) after the fact going from D6 to 7 ...and ends up with a middling low up near NF and the mid level N/stream mechanics with blue balls off the lower MA like ...what happened - where did she go. It was already there and the depiction looks united on the coarser renditions, but somehow the S/stream mechanics slips the N/stream despite the grid spacing - interesting...

Yes...bingo! Ephemeral indeed ... I'm not sure what the EPS tele 's look like, but the American don't really support anything other than a big warm up erupting in the first 10 days of March. ( not that anyone asked, but we flip the clocks in 9 days ... I'd be tickled pink if I piled out of work that Monday, with a 75 on the car dash, windows down, and the sun still 3 hours up on the horizon ) Anyway, the term 'hale Mary' leaps to mind, like a last gasp attempt to save a little exit face - ... I dunno, but March is a long month... and we really have to get to Easter to really close the books around here. Some years, ...heh, like this one, the book is slammed shut out of rage way before then but, objectively... we could put up a week at 70 F and still white out on the 22nd of March... before melting it all off the next week. This March is about bi-polar swings of tormented loss and real hope. haha

Mm...ridge in the west, unlike pretty much ever since early December, is actually depicted in a good longitude ( axis ) centered on D6 ...check. What I don't like is the impulse in the south that offers the seed/enticer for the stream interaction/phase ... it appears too concerved given the heights along the Gulf/continental interface latitudes leading (D's 4/5)... It seems that would be absorbed a bit more.

It was 10 F here a couple weeks ago one morning... I dunno - seems like an impressive cold shot to me. In fact, there's no lack of cold air ...it's just not being delivered and/or sustained around or geography. Just look at the polarity in the Euro at D10... While not a testament as to it's probability of occurrence by any stretch, there is still a vast pooling of sub -20 C 850 mb layout over the Canadian archipelago of the N. Nah issues has been the super-structure of the hemispheric flow won't align into a delivery/sustaining scenario - and hasn't really not once all year since mid December, for whatever reason. Not all all times..I mean, he have been side-swiped by impressive cold, setting up a couple a good radiational cooling morning ... and those single digit anomalies too place. But, the lack of sustaining is certainly true.

don't be so literal it's a goodly bit tongue-in-cheek. "It wouldn't shock me" is a common trope for half hearted seriousness

You're problem is that you think I'm trying to predict something there... that's an OP ed approach and conveyance - look up what that means. Opinion piecing isn't what you are after there -

Oh, 1888 is coming ... that's the thing, people read missives like that, latch on to one thing, and then almost compulsively over-react - but ... this is what happens when you give provincial rabble that virtual podium and mike of the Internet - Also, you get sociological histrionic crisis' that flirts with anarchistic meltdown. Space and remoteness, and dimmer technology used to protect actually, because by the time time "word" spread, it was already marinaded to truth by the crucible of time it took to actually get that word around. Now, it's so easily disposed, there's 0 zippo no vetting. Just misinterpreted source and reaction. But I digress... I'm kidding half way here... don't over react ahaha

No argument from me... In fact, I was digging around out in the main forum with those seasonal outlooks and found a post I made back in October hinting pretty strongly that I feared no reason to go against the climate migration model and the HC expansion/fast flow contamination issues ruining this winter, just like last year. Gee, what the f happened? Sorry, it's pretty clear that we had trouble with stream mechanical phasing, and cyclgonic entropy was large because of the torn open atmosphere. Yeah, I've been warning for a long time now ( meaning five seven or eight years ) that most these seasonal outlooks, few appear to have taken the latest research/observations/CC factors into account and still prog with too many vestigial influences of 1965 causation manifolds between water, land, and the more ephermal atmospheric indicators. They are not valid in 2020 ... hint - those method/validity started eroding in usefulness ... roughly around the onset and post the super-nino of 1997, and have gotten really quite obviously less than useful in the last five years. I was just talking to Harvey Leonard earlier today about this, he made this statement to me, which was a veritable echo of my own sentiments I made in a passing comment/missive in one of these scrolled threads in here, a couple of months ago: "I have never really seen one quite like this, for combo of warmth, and not even any “close calls,” or “near misses” since mid December." In concept this is exactly what I said to y'all, 'it is getting increasingly more difficult to sustain a snow potential atmosphere at our latitudes of North America, without some sort of either concurrent or antecedent, direct -EPO loading to support' I dunno - when combining the total worldly perspective on matters, we may already be in a Philly climate now... Wouldn't shock me. I mean, most empirical evidence to date in support of the CC stuff, shows that the change has exceeded modeling expectations ...in some case by decade(s) depending on the focused metric. Why not blow our f'n winters away too - But, before anyone panics, even in a Philly climate ( if more than merely tongue-in-cheek) it snowed a foot last week south of there in the slope country of the Carolinas. There are no absolute boundaries in climate, it's all about rarity.

Not sure about 'preview' per se ...but, when the whole hemispheric eye-balled integral results in solidly above normal heights, that becomes a hemispheric problem

Mah... it's stimulation withdrawal syndrome ( or is it 'withdraw' ?) The more dystopian entertainment people get, anything less makes them feel 'empty' because acclimation means they're not being accelerated to the same sense of urgency - which they use that drama to replace real values systemically missing from their lives ( as an add-on (btw) ). Even in the histrionic din of upped dramatic storm frequency ...there's going to be periods of relative offset quiescence ..and folks are just going to have to get the shakes we guess.

What's wrong with this picture ..

Bingo! Nothing motivates would-be noblemen and state's people like the moods of their constituency - the only other way around that in a democratic voter-society is cheating. Thank god there's no ... Wait a sec - Humor aside, if the ballast of lever pullers abandon the profligate presumption of entitlement to natural resources... finally connecting with the consequence-causality circuitry [ add finite science here .. ], the complexion of the office seeker is forced to change. But note I said 'complexion.' Execution in keeping with those promises that answer to ethos is entirely up to institutions put in place over the generations, charged with the responsibility to ensure those elected officials are 'owning up' ... It's a good thing we haven't seen any attempt at the dissolution of those agencies and institution, then, right ? Wait a sec - The total model of corruption could not be more patently clearly afoot in IR -based societies,. And, I still posit that the main reason why such brazen antics go down, and there is only passive moral recovery or even much vitriol at all, is because of post-Industrial Revolution giving rise to conveniences that rescue the existential state of society at all levels, from having to eat the shit of their own mistakes. But, the environment in that metaphor, quite succinctly becomes the dumping ground. In a baser 101 philosophical perspective: nature is about balancing positive and negatives... That's it. All of reality exist because at some quantum Plank scale...there is an imbalance that is attempting to get to neutral. That tug of war integrates to a Universe of time...space... energy and your life! And everything and anything that can be perceived happens because of that scaffold. So, it is quite logical to assume that 5 billion Industrial breast feeders are getting fat, something else has to be getting skinny. Metaphors are fun... Simple terms, if we lived in a reality where mistakes resulted in pain? Oh f yeah, people would sit up and take notice ...immediately. But the IR wipes humanity ass, by gobbling up even more resources to "save" them from having to conserve .. protecting all from seeing the consequences. Thus, the ease at convenience to deny, becomes self-reinforcing: 'I denied it last week, I got a raise, therefore, denial is right.' And that becomes a runaway selfish culture among many other abhorrent characters.

Thought y'all might find this interesting... https://phys.org/news/2019-12-el-nio-event-year.html

This goes along with the expansion ( Globally) of the Hadley Cell into the lower Ferrel latitudes... Among the charming symptoms: shifting mean storm tracks farther N of previous century(s) observation, is recently noted; speeding up the tropospheric deep layer wind velocities. This may be decadally ephemeral .. lasting while the polar regions are still sufficiently differentiable relative to the subtropics in winters, such that surplus latent heat stows in the lower latitudes cause increasing slope/ geopotential gradients everywhere in the ambient means. When/if the polar regions continue to warm, this particular effect may wane into a circumstance unknown. North America tending to run cooler ( though still warmer than normal at times ... ) relative to the other continental areas of the planet, due to it's unique geographical circumstance in the total Pacific-North American loading pattern - which Pac heat --> tendency for increased NE Pacific ridging ...which concomitantly supplies an enhanced tendency for western/central Canadian deep layer circulation response and NW/N conveyor(s). And... the MJO. It is just going to behave in concert and form, in it's own way, relative to the HC forcing/changes, just as well... This is not discussing how any of GW and the MJO effects say, Australia, or Indonesia or the Eurasian regions or anywhere else... Africa and Mediterranean climates ..etc. It's just mentioning that there are noteworthy and observable ongoing changes in the N/A circulation tendencies.

Keep in mind ... PDO means Pacific "Decade" Oscillation. These vicissitudes in the SST layouts will come and go, usually per local time scaled sea-surface stressing events. But they are as that suggest, ephemeral. They offer the jagged ups and down along the longer time-scaled curves, the typical behavior of any of these statistical inference efforts in nature. By conceptual understanding of what that means, there can be transient spans that may not represent the actual PDO. Right now the longer, 'weightier' curve shows that the index has been positive since the year 2015 or so, as I'm sure someone's pointed out .. Some of the months spanning 2018.. mm, the index is not exactly overbearingly positive, with many monthly values within mere decimals of 0, with a couple of blips in there where the index fell minutely negative ( < 0 ). I'm having difficulty finding the exact numbers for 2019 ( to date ), but multiple sources match one another and indicate the curve is sloping presently toward neutral ( 0 ), whether it is actually there yet. In any case, PDO correlation against present and -though-to-be correlated patterns, would need to be tested at relative PDO strengths. In most scientific statistics, by definition, when a curve approaches 0, that usually infer "N/S" ( no skill ) which mean equal probabilities.

Uh, "yes even" You'd be a sociopath if you altered peoples genetic construct without complete transparency and mutual concurrence ... I mean, this is silly at this point.

Wow ...so ur kinda sorta out there, huh Not me... no one f's with my DNA thank you. I think you'll find that is the consistent position among most human beings whom are proposition with the idea of having their innate sense of wonder chromosomely castrated. Yeeeah just sayn'