Typhoon Tip

Well don't make fun like that. I got what you were after based on that crap earlier in the day if you don't like it don't dish it out.

it's interesting... Honestly I have not paid much attention to that particular model in years I have no idea what it's bias profiles are like. I just simply don't have the time to get acquainted I know that it used to always have an amp bias in the mid range ...yet this solution appears to be underdone if anything.

Anyway… The uptick in amplitude coming in this evening sort of feels expected to me? Not sure what the euros going to show regarding this but I'm out. I'll just leave by saying that there still a lot of possible solutions on the table obviously we know that but just don't get gitty if that's even physically possible.

Well you should pay attention ... that's your new GFS before the end of this next month Also every models had its day. Drop it ... you're being a smart ass I get it but you sound like an ignoramus

I have to agree here. The parallelogram has not been shy about wintery profiled events over the last month and how many have verified that I have been beyond day four or five?

Will I don't know how that post did that - that was general audience directed

Cool

In this situation each model is playing into its bias specific charm… At this range.

No no no the GFS has a registered warm bias in the boundary layer.

Too generous

Huh. The GFS has a cold bias? On which planet?

You know… It would be ironic, if not hilarious… But we could actually not even be in January yet and already have a reasonably high confidence winter storm in the works. That, when seething over how much of Jan would suck too. I know I know blah blah blah nobody actually said that... but it's definitely in the air and the attitude

The GFS brought snow people.

Yeah GFS with a nice steady light snow and perfectly reasonable at this range ... agreed with everyone's expectations

ICON with absurd deepening rates. Ends up in the high 950s in the Boston harbor not much snow but wind damage.

How dis heartening is it when there's been 20 of those kind of runs

The idea for 120 hours isn't new folks - btw... Like we're saying here, this is a go-between index sort of arrangement ... and typically that's how a region gets stung while preoccupied looking for honey. We'll see, ...but rackin' up a 'nother 4-6" on the seasonal totals ...I think that's been covered by a few of us actually as not impossible. Hell, that could happen...melt off entirely... before we ever commit to a real supersynoptic shift for that matter...

Ha... I just prequeled that sentiment a few posts ago... it's lost on most people's rage at this point -

do expect an elephant's amount of heavy handed suppression attempts of any optimism at all for that thing until it's already happened at this point. given to the climate of disparity in here superseding all else. Can't say I blame anyone.

...somethin' like that...

It's not that far fetched, guys... Folks may be too ingrained in the arts of pattern loathing to see matters otherwise, but... the idea of "anomalies happening at any given time" is still very much a part of reality. Getting one to happen? Okay, but it may only seem impossible in a Stockholm hostage situation Yesterday I remarked that pushing that Euro system through the deep south was less likely, ...while today ...it does lift it more curvi-linear around the NW arc of the ridge ... That trajectory might allow it to maintain more cohesion - otherwise it would/should have lost it in the height compression and absorbed. The GFS was doing that according to theoretics rather nicely ... in fact still is... too well? It could also be too prodigious in doing so, which means its attenuation is prematurely ... possibly as a physical species too ... because the GEFs members individually both have and have no identity of that system. Since the Euro, GGEM and the GFS' own parallel run ... all have a coherent entity in the flow capable of inducing a swatch of synoptic usual suspects. I'd say keep and I on that. Systems of this nature fit in between the supersynoptic scaled index variances and are not very well seen using more common tools. 'Course there's other issues... A blend of the ones that do ...may not be ideally situate ... but... this dearth has gone on long enough, I think most would concede to the usefulness in having just about any possibility at all.

yes...related, Ray - Gradient ...both figuratively and literally means 'slope,' ... in present context, the sense of 'high' nodal variance to those of 'lows', and that restorative forces flow from high to low...etc. That's true in all physical processes in nature.... The atmosphere ...and really, to keep on point, the "atmospheric-oceanic coupled" state is in thermal dipole at all scales... expanded, this becomes multivariate thermal source and sinks, all of which are in a constant state of attempting to find a neutral/balanced state. In that foment, if the highs are very high, and the lows are very low.. the "acceleration" curve will express accordingly. Bringing this home... the ENSO thermal source(sink) in the atmospheric coupled model ... is/are playing by the same rules. And ...you've come to the point I was trying to make at least in part. That "delay" is quite plausibly a physical manifestation of the law of constancy playing out (thanks Daz!)

For what it's worth ... Good news regarding the stratosphere up north ... well, good news for winter enthusiasm Tough to keep in mind, suppose 85.3% of society loathes the climate at this time of year, so to be fair to them ... bad news would be more like it. The 1 thru 10 hPa sigma level winds are coming into the observations with a mid ranged easterly anomaly. That's an important first signal to impending PV weakening. Also, as the total mass of the thermal plume is also emerged(ing), it's pretty evident that while it may not be top tier comparing to other years with SSW in the past four decades, it's large in physical volume. It's comparable in volume-dimension alone to other propagating examples in the data set. I found it interesting that no sooner do these observations become clear ... the CPC AO completely discontinued it's previous dynamics with that indexes outlook. The vaster majority of members are less than zero, whereas just twenty-four hours ago ..they were all positive out through the end of week two. It's the character of that continuity break that sticks out for me... namely, yesterday, not only were the members positive, but they were reasonably well-clustered too. Though this new layout is more mop ended, it "might" be the beginnings of the exertion on the AO/PV. It's not anything to hang a hat on... but, I was looking (personally) for these initial observations to come into focus and seeing that they have, that helps my personal confidence that this SSW may down well and precede -AO. Just as a caution... the usual caveats apply: if -AO succeeds... is it going to be a mid-latitude(s) cold delivery on our side of the hemisphere... first, or delayed... ? I think much of that will come down to the MJO/Pacific arc of events and whether those time well. If the MJO comes around to Phase 7-8-1 ... ?2, those tend to correlate with -AO phases anyway, do to the fact that those phase spaces load upticks in cyclogen/enhancing easterly flow in the means along the 50 to 60 N parallel --> defaulting the AO negative when that occurs. So, if those can come around when the AO is dropping anyway? LOOK OUT

Thing is... it occurred to me back post the super-nino ... was that like three years ago now. No ..can't be that far, is it? I think it was 2016 ... Anyway, the global impacts from that "super nino" ...didn't generate much vitriol in the headlines. And I sniffed around ... why? Because there wasn't much. I even saw papers written ...articles that also discussed plausible explanations why. I'm sure the impacts of that event were registered somewhere some how more or less.. but, it didn't concomitantly result comparative to the anomaly its self. We have to be careful... it's not black or white, either. It's more how factors and forces stress systems - or can ... gradient distribution - which is also a changing in time. So it's more like pushing results up and down a spectrum. In a colder atmosphere overall, introducing a hot-house SST inferno ENSO up underneath is going to result a coherent registry of observations in the atmosphere. I'm highly confident there is veracity in at least that baser precept. And if that's true ... logically the rest follows. Yeah... supposition... but, if the atmosphere is 90 F everywhere, and the water is 90 F everywhere... what does one think will happen? ...

I realize this doesn't seem to resonate too well in this particular, internet social-media community but... I believe the warmer overall Terran atmosphere is possibly disrupting the correlations. I have noticed an ...albeit ostensible failure between event/phenomenon quotas that are more typically ensuing during/because of various ENSO states over the last ten years. That may not seem to be a large enough data set to really get one's knickers in a bunch. It's only tens years. But, let us not focus on that "ten year" time span; that is a ten years that happens to have a huge, packed set of expectation that did not appear to materialize, or if so ... did so in pallid fashion. Something is causing weaker responses ... And honestly that can be vetted further. I'm more at tacitly aware. The tenor of mass-media over those ten years may simply be not able to make money off that so being an enterprise they headline elsewhere... But, just the same, my attention is devoted, my nose into science sites and sources, regularly, that are referencing papered/reviewed works over the years, as well. See ... it goes like: those correlations are based upon results during different gradient-balancing(ed)-years. I've explained this in the past... I'm not sure folks really get what that means, ...But, a 30-year oceanic-atmospheric coupled data set are first, fixed scalar results (ENSO), back whence. The problem is ... then being used during a changing system - in physical terms "accelerating", i.e., not a system that is producing those scalars. While not a red flag necessarily ... certainly that should tilt up an eyebrow. Maybe these "modoki" this and uncharacteristic La Nina thats are just a demonstration of that "gap growing" disconnect. Most climate scientists, models, and the empirical data that supports the entire panoply of environmental monitoring ...all of it signal the climate change is indeed a d(accelerating) phenomenon. In other words, not just changing but speeding up in that change. I've said this before ...I'll say it again ... gradient gradient gradient. It's everything. It's a rudimentary principle requirement of reality its self ... Without it, Nature stops on a dime. Everything in the Universe ceases to exist ... if there are no gradients. One's very heart beat is based upon chemo-guided electrical gradients, where potential builds, the gate opens, physically expressed by the heart beat... Gate closes... potential builds up... and you'd better hope it rinses and repeats or its adios muchacho. And that includes where the wind blows ... The SSTs of the Pac NINO districts may not mean the same thing to this era's atmosphere, compared to 1918 gradients... or even the middle part of last century when the cause-and-effect oceanic-atmospheric coupling and expectation matrices were established. Because we are changing the gradients in the total integral of the system. To say otherwise to me is tantamount to changing the relationships between people and then expecting them to relate in the same way - paradox. In a way, it's almost a comic of follies ... All the pouring over data set of ENSO this and that spanning years ...balanced against all a dizzying array of multifarious, esoteric this and that... when before even attempting that crucible in the first place ... the ENSO part of it may in fact be losing relevancy. "losing" doesn't mean "lost" either... so -