Typhoon Tip

And that's the way it looks to me exactly ... at this time. I'm not hoping? or doing otherwise ... I'm just trying to be objective based upon knowledge and experience ... balancing in trends. If the large circulation featuring alters I'll be happy to amend these ideas regarding the current mid to late range ... Time will tell.

Yup ... and NWS made that very clear in their discussion prior to the event, that they were taking that philosophy/tact with this thing... Having said that... I don't know about the wisdom in/and public perception of having done so personally - not that you or anyone asked. PR and idiocracy factors don't really align with their level of precision and adherence to time-spans like that. Silly really - No ...the average person doesn't judicially judge these sort of things anywhere close to those internal aspects, ...and actually, the vast majority don't read their tech/reasoning discussions either. They may not like hearing this, BUT, they need to consider how these advisories and warnings are consumed. More so at that end - but that's just imho. NWS does not exist for their own precision - they exist paid for by the public To be fair, those time requirements work much of the time. However, this is/was an unusual circumstance that requires(d) a mutation of those requirements - this was a warning by totality of event scenario, sorry. More so than the other line of reasoning and though it is just my opinion, the PR angle should have been considered like the former. Civility isn't ready nor responsible enough for their precision. Maybe some day...

Ha ha... Kevin could figuratively put his lap top down, stand up...walk out his front door, and down to the end of his street and he'd be out of the storms western periphery and not part it for that 2 minute excursion... Yet it's all, " up to 11.0" this and that on this last heavy band ...

Yeah honestly I don't actually pay much attention to those hyper ala carte model types ... For all conceits and purposes of tech and excruciating computing power, they seem to throw almost as many variances, where just using the global models and smoothing them in mind's eye toward common sense works just as well. But, part of the "don't really use the HRRR" means lack of exposure to that guidance sourcing; so objective fairness requires that I don't actually impugn the model - I'm just saying as such from what I gather from what people post about it. Good and bad... and I'm lazy? ...so I rely on the smoothing above. That said, Will mentioned the HRRR snowing through mid afternoon and that seems to be matching well - that's all I know ...haha

There's a bit of an enhanced plume about to rotate SW out of lower Maine and quickly... Maybe a good inch in that - I'm now 6.5" since this recommenced last evening here in Ayer. Bringing the two day storm total to 15.5" ... HRRR ftw ?

yeah, this band is solid moderate burst ... 14" may go 15" soon for dual event total

Euro cut back on the 850 penetration in latitude, as well as time duration, and I suspect that trend continues. ... This next Lakes cutter is probable ( still ) but the deeper extended ( whether it happens or not exactly like that, notwithstanding...) really more than anything else underscores the previous -EPO or -EPO-like reload idea. Which typically promotes a brief period of ridging and warm intrusion up the eastern seaboard as per climatology as we know. Scott is over stating that effect to be funny troll but he knows what I am saying is true, and unless things turn out differently in the larger hemispheric modes/modalities ... that period of time is more likely destined to be a transient/lower duration and quite possibly a lower amplitude scenario. Now that I've declared this... things will go ahead and 'turn out differently in the larger hemispheric modes/modalities' just to spite this idea .. but cross that bridge - Regarding the Lakes cutter ... I still would not be surprised if the warm up ends up being more of a triple point mister with more transient heat pinched S of NYC. I've seen this EPO slosh back mass field two-step scenario too often to know that the warm side of it is often too amplified in most guidance types when peering at it from D5+ but ... meh...we'll see -

Boy the models really nailed that western foist of the surface low toward the Maine coast. You can really get a sense of that happening as we type, both sat and rad looping. I don't think this is going to end very fast in eastern Mass and coastal SE NH given that low needs to move along it's typical curved trajectory ...Fuji Wara style around the mid level vortex. It will probably start weakening, and that may dwindle off the intensity but until that low pivots S of and finally starts slipping E ..we're probably going to be rotating globules of light to moderate snow bursts like this.

I'm curious how everyone did/averaged E of I-495, where last night there was resent if not vitriol regarding the snow total forecasts seemingly not matching the "illusion" of now-cast at the time. I must admit, I too was a little surprised to see a solid new 6" on my wipe board this morning here in Ayer, and I suspect they snowed yet more say Willmington/Essex Co ?? So, those late snow totals forecasts nailed it if so -

the banded nature/shred rad fest that took place yesterday with that moisture starved conveyor is "technically" not part of "round 2" ...just sayn' Some of you did quite well from that interim snow during the afternoon and evening yesterday, along Rt 2 and curving SW in pockets in CT. But round 2 was more so the reconsolidating curved CCB head over the east overnight and this morning. Not that any of that matters... snow is snow -

6" new since ~ 4pm last afternoon in Ayer. 4" of which fell after 11 pm last evening. Which brings the event or dual event total to 14" .. but of course it's more likely 10" out on the yard level with the usual settling and so forth. Presently flurries with occasional light snow bursts. Vis isn't terrible. We appear to be on the western edge of this as everyone red eyed and awake is certainly aware.

Also ... may be hard toVisualize at this time but don’t be surprised if the 2 to 2 1/2 day warm up ends up 18 hours of misting triple point

This offers explanation...

No ... not necessarily... Just that it's within the realm of possibilities so folks should be aware that if this pivots a tick more and spares everyone the ignominy of a good time, don't be shocked or emotive. Tall order from this crew but - It's entirely possible that both those models are just responding to convective sequencing/feedback, and since this situation is sort of got no room to f around with it's not helping confidence either way. Euro's actually pretty good as an arbiter in this sort of situ - probably just go with that models and let the chips fall as they may at this point. Or, nowcast too

I mentioned yesterday that if this didn't consolidate better we might have to deal with a farther east 2nd system - Then of course what happens, the models summarily try to consolidate ... but, the lull today sort of precludes that as being successful and now on top of the 2nd system, the east - typical bs making people jump through hoops

snow blowing off roofs a bit ....

Just hoping it doesn't turn out to be one of those one storm now, one storm in March winters -

temps slipping back along Rt 2... 33/32 this morning and now 31/29... Snow/water beads on car are dry and solid respectively after being perfect snow man blue earlier

Or intelligence to read anything else

Nice effort but you'll get more replies and sense of it actually being read if you include the 'snowcane' drug ... So like all that, then say ... " ....means x-y-z snow for a-b-c location" Suddenly your analysis is brilliant!

I'd say on balance the operational GFS was cold actually ... It just has a two day stint of an active storm track NW of the region that everyone's focused upon like there's nothing else but the end of the world because of it - oh the humanity. Actually, in some ways that looks like the ice storm in 1998 ... but who cares at our latitude, right - But beyond that, a week or so from tomorrow, we cascade on a steady diet of low amplitude -EPO cold loaded air masses. Just not a lot of specific entertainment modeled during that era... but, we used to have a saying back in my college lab days up there at UML... 'First it gets warm; then it gets cold; BOOM' ... well, the Euro too, both got the warm whip back to cold, ... maybe we just have to wait for the other ? The PNA is progged to remain elevated over at CPC, though the AO/NAO arc leaves a lot to be desired, granted... But, I haven't seen the EPO progs lately ...so the above surmise is just based upon what the operational run's general circulation vibes. If we have +PNA under a pulsing low amp -EPO, that's still an interesting pattern.

This goes along with the expansion ( Globally) of the Hadley Cell into the lower Ferrel latitudes... Among the charming symptoms: shifting mean storm tracks farther N of previous century(s) observation, is recently noted; speeding up the tropospheric deep layer wind velocities. This may be decadally ephemeral .. lasting while the polar regions are still sufficiently differentiable relative to the subtropics in winters, such that surplus latent heat stows in the lower latitudes cause increasing slope/ geopotential gradients everywhere in the ambient means. When/if the polar regions continue to warm, this particular effect may wane into a circumstance unknown. North America tending to run cooler ( though still warmer than normal at times ... ) relative to the other continental areas of the planet, due to it's unique geographical circumstance in the total Pacific-North American loading pattern - which Pac heat --> tendency for increased NE Pacific ridging ...which concomitantly supplies an enhanced tendency for western/central Canadian deep layer circulation response and NW/N conveyor(s). And... the MJO. It is just going to behave in concert and form, in it's own way, relative to the HC forcing/changes, just as well... This is not discussing how any of GW and the MJO effects say, Australia, or Indonesia or the Eurasian regions or anywhere else... Africa and Mediterranean climates ..etc. It's just mentioning that there are noteworthy and observable ongoing changes in the N/A circulation tendencies.

Will's fire hose into eastern mass appears like it's either trying to get going, or ...is just a weak version of one. But those are some impressive embedded echoes over interior SE zones and as the snow line is collapsing as we speak, that might get 'flashy' in there. That present band over southern NH actually looks OES ish

That's really neat looking on Rad and Sat this hour east of the Jersey coast. There's thunder there... and the expansion/cooling cloud shield over top immediately assumes a cylone curl, as though there is a tight internal cyclonic nucleus imploding there. Which, that's may be confirmed in surface/buoy PP obs.... Or, it could be more mid level - hard to say. But that's cool... Meanwhile, fire hose in NYS -

Presently there are heavy showers with thunder looking pixels popping off E of Jersey - hint hint...