Typhoon Tip

Well ... the "what" needs to be done is textured. Like, for starters, either one doing it right. That would serve as a significant improvement. By virtue of the fact that they are closer to correct at all, they'll just end up similar -

Mm ... From what source.. ?

2 in every 5 octobers will have a south swash misty DP event that's warm ...usually ends with a ribbon echo squall sinuously wobbling it's way east out of NYS ..after which the wind goes light in a lag ... until the next morning diurnal mixing gets the CAA deeper/more involved. It'd probably be 64/62 with gray streets .. periodic light showers before the squall arrives.

And that makes the Euro now too... It holds the trough spacing SW still more than others but not nearly as prodigiously, ejecting it prior to the extended range and actually ends up with a low amp +PNA with Lake cutter - The whole thing may be in flux though/pending future run cycles/trends, ...I'm not fully convinced we aren't just seeing transition season 'growing pains' in the models and to some lesser extent the weightier ensemble means. The EPS was always more progressive with that SW look - understandable in either facet.

End result is an N-stream dominant pattern... dry and unseasonably cold.

Both the GGEM and GFS abandoning the SW low ... vast continuity issues but we expect that given the time frames -

Ha ha ...tru dhat! Yeah, as a winter enthusiast, one might be simultaneously share in frustration and amazement should such ordeals verify as repeating phenomenon. In 1995 ... there was a two to three week intermission before Act II commenced and added 1/3 - to date- over top to really bring the seasonal averages to historic levels. That intermission was brutal - despite all virtues of fairness. It almost made it worse that the fist 45 days of winter were so prolific perhaps. We had some 36 to 40" of multi-storm snow pack. I remember it having textural layers.. never had seen that impression before. Usually, there's mangled pattern correction melting in between successive events enough that previous snow fall all tend to blend into a sub-straight with the only the more recent snowfall identifiable on top? - if one can imagine what I'm saying... But by mid January 1996 that incredible season, the snow pack out 30 mi W of Boston as the crow flies ..there were like 6 or 7 layers from different snow types ...almost like looking at an avalanche survey/assessment team's cut-out profile. Then ... the cutters kicked in.. The pattern retrograde and/or progressed, either way, but it was pretty much diametrically opposite storm track, going form zero mid-continental cyclones to zero chance of coastals and 100% chance of MS-Lakes transits. It was that cut and dry... well, "wet" is more like it. We ended up with a couple of Lakes bombs that swatched 50 F DP to Caribou Maine... Man, I really...I was I think a Junior in college then...I remember thinking as we were entering that period of late Jan into Feb ( which was well modeled - in fact, ...that was interesting about that year. It was extraordinarily well-modeled with individual scoring exception regardless of either a particular model's preexisting skill, or just the primordial nature of the technology compared to today; a time in which - ironically - we can't seem to sacrifice enough virgins to find... ), how with a starting of nearly 40" on the level, we'd survive it as snow-pack enthusiast. Nope. All flat open fields and knolls ...basically, where there were no man-attributed snow banks, were frozen Earth with water running off when the last cutter skirted through Minnesota .. DPs were nearing 60... 60! With southerly winds gusting to 50 mph whirring white noise through the barren tree canopy. One more cutter like that and we'd a-been pushing up crokus shoots. As it were... the cold that came flooding across the country on the backside of that big system ...as well, the system its self probably contributing in the governing change, both heralded a refresh that was impressive. And it snowed a foot in ~ mid February... We never did attain the 36 to 40," ...but we did on a couple of occasions flirt with 18" before settling...

the purpose of that run-down ( just in case .. .) has no bearing on that... There may be those out there that appreciate the model analysis. Truth be told, it is not physically impossible what we see there in that unlikely ( however so... ) GGEM solution. Personally? I'd be all for seeing that anywhere on the Earth... That's fantastic -

If anyone is interested... the difference between the GFS and Euro operationals wrt to this GGEM solution above ... The GFS brings the uber potency of the N-stream ( no doubt, imparted south by the spatial-temporal presaging EPO ) on a more SE trajectory through western Canada, as opposed to the GGEM that plunged that almost due south .. such that phases ( with unlikely proficiency of course ...) with exquisite above 90th percentile mechanical efficiency ...almost zero entropy ( wow! ) What all model agree upon is that southern component quasi-cut-off SW vortex ... as is shown here in the Euro for the same time. However, additionally differing in this Euro depiction, the N-stream is yet even flatter than the GFS ...smearing out and almost inconsequential through southern Canada.... One thing that I want to stress ... as was the case yesterday and the day before ...etc, as this period of post -EPO forcing on N/A's pattern began to emerge ... this is not a warm pattern for our region, despite any focus that may be drawn to the impressive ridging over the SE and adjacent SW Atlantic Basin. The confluence in Canada is extreme ... as can clearly be seen in the Euro, but is also evidence in the other models...

For shear love of all natural wonders this f'n thing should transcend any forlorn sense in "dystopiancentricity" ... It should be so awesome as to transfix the appreciator, regardless of where it occurs. Buut alas, something tells me the insanity of this pass-time/hobby/or pursuit, or whatever euphemism we use to image this as not being the utter lunacy it is, knows no bounds; there are those among us that would still grouse because we are not parking this society stymieing juggernaut on ISP ... If you are of this latter ilk ( which I am... ), just a soup con of conciliation in the notion that this is the Plain's version of the dreaded D8 monster - so in like fashion, they should end up 80 F when that extended time arrives ... and the sad trumpet heralds Maud's song: for all the saddest words of tongue or pen, there are none sadder than these ... 'what might have been!' ... Seriously though, this thing reminds me in the run-up charts as the "Cleveland Superbomb" Jan 25-27th 1978, only 2K kM west -

Hmm.. not seeing 'boring,' tho ..that is a subjective term. If we mean some sort of historic bomb unheralded in terror dimensions transcending corporeal sight and sound ..i.e, twilight zone hysteria for storm junkies, than perhaps.. But from for a Meteorologist - a citation that appears to apply to too few including my self - there are aspects that are intriguing at least. Namely, this: That A ... is a huge modality in the PNA going from boring - ironically - to ...not boring; and B, one so amplified that it is actually weighting the EPO negative; which means that there is a multi-spatial domain ridge going on in the east Pacific. ( A + B )/2 = a loud, implicit counter-balancing lowering heights downstream over north America. Now... yes, the -EPO onset can imply what the Euro operational version has been beady-eyed obsessing over, which is an "inside slider" tucking into the SW and throwing Venus down stream but... enters the NAO above. Not so fast Euro. Let's call that C ...as in "COLD" ...that is a cold/suppression of heights over middle latitudes of eastern North America/implication there, and one that is not exactly poorly supported by the CDC's sister org/agency (Climate Prediction Center). It's mop ended a bit heading into week two granted. The most important aspect about C though is that it suppresses heights over eastern N/A; particularly when the index mass-balancing is situated over the western limb...which this appears to be. That means, that the Euro operational runs throwing heights up down stream ...may actually be in confluence, and thus, high sprawl and colder thickness wedging under the height heights ...and we see that exact same thing synoptically depicted... There are other aspect too...such as the EPS is not nearly as "tucked" as the Euro, and may in fact be a better/safer course of lesser regret over a -4 SD height core over southern California! The EPS is a straight up prelude to an ice-storm from the lakes/Ov to Ne regios... if it were not for that unfortunate(fortunate) aspect of it being Oct 29 through ~Nov 5. I don't know... there may not be something to arouse excitement by tomorrow... but it is as though the the nearer horizon is set aglow in eerie light at 3 am signifying something may have happened, and we're awaiting the arrival of the p-wave's report. I'm not forecasting a winter storm here, but that's a risky look if one is planning on quiescence.

The short answer? ... maybe how's that Lol oy... The thing with the NAO is that is a fickle beast. It has marked intra-seasonal, and even intra-weekly time -scaled variances that are headachy .. virtually impossible to predict at seasonal time lengths in general. That immediately intuits that any correlation between a couple of run-ins with neggie NAO would be met with more 'noisiness' when trying to drub an tendency out of any given year. Having said that ... the 'maybe' part of that is: The NAO also appears to follow the AMO... which runs along a rough 30 to 40 year periodicity that oscillates between negative and positive - similar and in fact, it may even be the same as the PDO ( just off the top of my head..). SO, if we are in a negative(positive) regime therein, the NAO may be innately prone to being negative in general in October, as well as the proper cold season due to that preexisting tendency.

Yup...perfect summation elucidating the differences ... Fwiw - to the general reader, my take on things. With regard to the American -based tele progs, the CDC is more emphatic about the PNA mode changing from negative to positive spanning these last ten days or so of the month, compared the CPC ... if you see this chart below, tomorrow ... next day, be careful that it may not update, but this is what it was from last night's release from the CDC: In a vacuum this is a whopper cold signal. It's not just a pronounced and thick PNA mode change that is impressive... The NAO is decidely negative "as" the PNA is rising.. This would actually portend an Archembaultian signal if this were a month from now and the tele's were both, more dependable, but the hemisphere would be more indicative of an established pattern therein. The EPO is negative too - with ain't hurin - but, I suspect it is negative because the PNA is in fact so amplified that it's over-lapping into the EPO's lower latitude domain space ...which is weighting the index some - speculative. The WPO .. some semblance of a mode change to negative but it's so slight that I'm not sure that sending much correlation downstream just yet. I don't think either way the Pacific is in a hurry to send a warm look either, tho - Having said all that, the CPC is interesting rendering a bit of a blase PNA compared to the coherence of these bar-graphs above: I'm not really sure which should be paramount in assessing the mass-field forcing to be honest. I 'tend' to lean CPC in the winter, and CDC in the summer? But the coins turning over in the air in mid stride between those seasons. A few of the members mop-end and rise positive but there are a lot that remain neutral neggie out there, which is in a pretty clear conflict with week 2 CDC appeal. One thing that I also find interesting is that the AO is trying to start out modestly negative, then drops to -2 or so SD for ten or so day, before relaxing a little way out there ( which is obviously up for grabs by the end of week 2...) Putting all this in a blender and hitting frappe pours a glass that tastes chilly overall from the GFS cluster. As far as the Euro/EPS ... I'm not fully convinced that technology is completely without its older bias of tending to plumb heights too deeply in the SW. Some sages may recall that was a big problem with that guidance like... 20 years ago. But through time and upgrades the greater pith of that bias has improved, admittedly, ...at least per my own observation. But it still seems at times that given lesser excuse it has a panache where it's still trying to do that. Many of it's overtly large ridges and heat signals of the summer that failed were - I think - related to lowering heights to prodigiously...even if subtle, out west. It's not impossible it's too "tucky" with that inside slider it's got betwixt D7-10. The EPS if of course a little flatter, but that's typical.. Here's the thing, a mid way correction ...even say, 1/3 yielding to the GFS ( so partial ) would be be enough to see substantively colder as far E as Detroit I feel... I dunno...I'm a little uneasy about the Euro clusters height distribution out there in the extended. I was initially impressed over a week ago and posted about this period between the 20th of October and ~ the 10th of Novie... This is really more like emerging toward ..or perhaps re-emerging, toward a prior signal.

Purely speculation but the wind force was coming at the entire region from an unusual direction ? It had more of an easterly component to it - I'm not absolutely certain of that wind direction in Petersham; it's just that there was limited/no antecedent boundary layer additional forcing from colder viscous air mass, which with the more typical coastal cyclone circumstance ... causes the wind to back more NE or even N when lows cut east of that region. This was an unusual storm ... elevation probably does play a role where it was affecting inland. I am here in the Nashoba Valley - for example - and really didn't even hear a single wind gust. Yet a friend lives similar distance as the crow flies from the coastal zones in Auburn at an elevation of 700' and said he lost power for a couple of hours and there is sporadic limbs here and there around the neighborhood. Immediately E/S of his location there were no outages ... until RI, where all hell breaks loose.. That does seem to suggest both an elevation inland, or proficient mixing nearer the warm ociean (perhaps), as the two primary exposures in this event. Anyway, if the more easterly component were true, that may also add to it that foliage stress patterns may not have been accustomed to that wind direction. Tam' up in Maine might have some insight there as he seems to be a bit of tree guy

Keep in mind ... -EPO does not really automatically connote an eastern U.S. trough.. particularly earlier in the year when the wave lengths are still not extended(ing) quite as far. That said ...even in the winter proper, a newly arriving -EPO often does dump cold down the spine of the Can Rockies and front range, that will come down into the intermountain west first before then spreading E/S .. ( look for Blue Norther in Ok/Tx ...). But...no pattern change is identical - so to speak... A -EPO ridge can pop and load cold and immediately decay and collapse as the blocking node slips south and merges with a +PNA and then that west bias may not be obviously seen. We're just talking idealized model here. The PNA is on the other hand, yeah... the Euro seems that it wants to do like a "west-based +PNA" if there can be such a thing. In the Euro run it's self, it's hard to really even see if the EPO is very negative or if the PNA is just so positive that it's overlapping the EPO domain and flipping the sign bootleg neggie

Part of that/those technological mode/attitude changes aren't just for the advent of new tech alone, either ... There was a veracious study released several years ago about the exposure of the grid to the sky as a nearly naked ground current problem - in the advent of solar storms reaching Carrington Event classification. That event now would knock out many hundreds of millions, in thousands of regions world over and probably descend the world into a global crisis that enter dystopian duress here [ ] - though there are conflicting studies on the extent of said crisis. Mm... the dependence on electricity is both poorly planned, more fragile than many know ... and would cut deeply if it were lost in a more permanent status. Areas the grid service were customized - they don't have parts in storage for macro redundancy in the face of cascade systemic failure that involves physicality. Such that it would take years to recovery many areas, including urban. Yeah... few are aware of this while we carry about in the popularized issues of the day. Also, there's a recent joint study out of Osaka Japan: "...The September 1859 Carrington Event ejected concentrated solar plasma towards Earth, disrupting the planet's magnetic field and leading to widespread telegraph disturbances and even sporadic fires. New research in AGU's journal Space Weather indicates storms like the Carrington Event are not as rare as scientists thought and could happen every few decades, seriously damaging modern communication and navigation systems around the globe. "The Carrington Event was considered to be the worst-case scenario for space weather events against the modern civilization… but if it comes several times a century, we have to reconsider how to prepare against and mitigate that kind of space weather hazard," said Hisashi Hayakawa, lead author of the new study and an astrophysicist at Osaka University in Osaka, Japan and Rutherford Appleton Laboratory in the United Kingdom..." They are being careful with their diplomatic word choice. While we are really using a ticking time bomb to plan for a future that won't explode on us ... We are ( rightfully so ...) ever preoccupied with GW and climate change stuff, while we are also but a light switch away from disaster regardless. I just you know ... it's not the time or the place but, there are more examples all around us than one can count, that are existing proofs of how the Industrial Revolution surge humanity ahead without any checks-and-balance along the way.

Plenty of cold air in Canada at the end of that Euro run... it's got the PNA ridge - but displaced west. Others have discussed that -EPO off-loads tend to be situated west .. I concur - if for no other reason, wave lengths are still lengthening so shorter is doable in that sloppy sense of it. But, I also think it is possible that the entire D8-10 Euro construct ends up lengthened/and or east by a time zone's rough width anyway - if for no other reason, ridging in the east has been correcting flatter and or briefer in this particular guidance routinely since august. There's kind of like multiple bias moving parts going on. But the unassailable fact is that tele's are in a descending AO with rising PNA through that period, so the "correction vector" is blue.

I've been getting that vibe down this way, too ... particularly in the latter sense with October, without having looked at the means to date. This just has the look and feel of prototypical October. It is interesting to be now staring down the barrel of the American tele's all signaling a chance of a some decent colder departure in the last 10 days into Novie, because that would sort of buck that trend. But you know ...there's another school of thought there. May we have already been in a cooler than normal pattern - it's just a matter of relativity? Like, it took something to get us normal over the last 40 days or whatever it has been, something of an offset or compensating pattern to global warming warming warming

That lack of antecedent boundary layer inhibition ( i.e., no cold air ) was also instrumental in why the surface low 'tucked in' west so quickly - I think ...well, hope anyway, that with that identifiably the case it might protect model interpretation from making that mistake. But ya never know huh

This is the third day running that the teleconnectors based off the GFS ensembles have been signaling an early winter.. Heh.. yeah, subtle hyperbole there - sue me. But, the PNA is very robust in CDC and has been for a few days. That's a whopper mode change... -2 to +2 is a total of 4 SD and considering the spatial layout of the PNA domain, that's an awful lot of atmospheric mass change to thing that won't show up in the pattern somehow. But warm going to a cool one. The EPO is positive but neutralizes in tandem... I think that is because the PNA is so robust that it is overlapping the EPO a bit and weighting it down some. That's okay too - I've noticed plenty of times in the past, that these two indices seem to precede one another. A strong +PNA may become a -EPO and the PNA neutralizes... say. OR, the -EPO neutralizes, and the PNA rises... ( it's obvious why that behavior unfolds but it's too much for a phone screen) Meanwhile, the AO is going negative through the next two weeks. ...hmm, not sure, but... -AO/+PNA ain't zactly forcin' any sweaters off in late October/Novie

mm... I'm not really moved by insidious black IR blotches ... I recall one of those in the 1990s that trekked into the eastern Caribbean that was like blowing a hole so deep into the tropopause with cloud tops pegged so far beyond the cold part of the scale that it ceased to exist - over a large area, too and persisted for two days. TPC has a 60 mph tropical storm nearing cane status ... until, a RECON finally gets in there and whaaaa.. They couldn't even close off a circulation. They report was like ...sorry man... this is an open wave. Ever since then a little voice in the internal monologue questions the vitality of a 'cyclone' when I'm basing it purely upon satellite inference. Ever notice also ...sometimes when there a dark convective blotches bombin' away on a loop for several hours, if/when it up and decays all at once...it seems to fold into its self in a cyclonic fashion? Yet, there may not actually be any air moving into much of anything in a cyclonic fashion... It just sort of implodes cyclonically signifying nothing - I've always thought that was interesting.

Yeah ...I'm with you on this. I actually stopped scratching my head over their seasonal outlooks because frankly, I don't even look anymore - I just go ahead and auto-assume they'll have somewhere between 30 and 60% probability for warmer than normal rust painted all over the map without even looking.. This is the first year in a bunch actually that I recall seeing that kind of large scale "implication" for an offsetting cool potential - even if it is just in a relative sense and is only achieving neutrality as the nadir ( Lakes /NP there). But that's true - I've done the exact same thing ( funny ) and wondered how in the f they got to even 30 % for above normal when the there are pretty obvious global markers for EPO this or AO that and so forth. Annoying.. I will give them credit on something ... about 7 or 9 years ago I wanna say, they begin putting caveat emptors into their discussions that go along with some of these annotation products, where they admit to less than ideal skill in predicting the EPO/AO/NAO polarward modulations. '...Tend to have intraseasonal variability that is both not well understood and therefore cannot be determined with much of any skill' - to paraphrase. That does sort of free them from absolute culpability when/if a winter does a 2014 in Chi-town ...or a 2015 in Boston...

Actually ...speaking of that societal impact stuff... I remember the morning after the 2007 ice storm up there in the Worcester Hills. I was living in Acton Mass at the time, a so-called "perimeter township" to the hot zone. What I later learned is when a region of the grid fails, the neighboring trunks attempt to pick up the slack - so to speak - and that can cause their systems to go then go down as a cascade, because the draw overwhelms. The sub-stations and buckets up utility poles have breakers, and they can en masse trip and/or arc and fail. We were not even icing in Acton by 9 pm the night accretion was passing an inch encasement in the towns 8 miles west as the crow flies, but the blue glows immediately preceding their eerie deep resonance emanated from over the horizons and heralded in our town's going down with the ship...F! The next morning, it was something... the sullen faces, drawn down under archless eyebrows standing in a line that stretched out a Dunkin' Donuts door and down the parking lot some couple hundred feet. Apparently since that strip had a CVS there was a generator servicing just that location, and the D&D happened to be on the circuit, and so opened for coffee and minor provisions as long as supplies last. They were charging or it too. The people occasionally peered at watches as they stood on line just before rotating their glances to and fro as though belated in coming to terms with the it all. I sat there peering through my windshield as my car slipped into park, wondering if it was worth it to get in that line, and felt embarrassed. How even I was so beholden to the grid, exposing the arrogance of a society that lives in a delusion of security provided by electricity, and has long become vastly too wholly dependently reliant upon it. It's not like I hadn't experienced that kind of outre shame before - whenever the power goes out that's part of it. But sitting there, in that moment, for some reason I was more profound struck by it, and how fake everything really is What's funny ... you can go to a camping or outdoors prep store and buy these small wood stove coffee maker set ups inside of 20 bucks... No one in that line even knows that's true.

I connected with this sentiment back in 1986 ... It was an innocuous icing event in the deeper interior up through the northern Mass that wasn't particularly well forecast... It happened over Xmass week off from High School/week after the holiday it's self - sneakily avoiding the annuls. But, we had maybe .8" total accretion from freezing drizzle ...almost never coming down enough to call it rain. 31.8 F in freezing mist in a cold pal air that smelled like a mash up of chimneys with that cryo-tundra smell. I actually really wanted to experience the zr rain to fall harder to get into some of that yore stuff... until, about day two, when the mortar fire of timbre failure kicked in and the power went out for two days henceforth. It was not a big deal icing event with sporadic outages ... but my neighborhood was out of power in cold weather long enough to learn that lesson; the novelty of that particular type of winter phenomenon runs with certain rapidity when one is standing there in the cold and dark And yes... these sorts of things are jolt reminders ... the Carrington Events or comet impacts ... they're out there.

I was talking about something else ..- and, I was feeling devious and wanted the reactions. Ha. boy did that work! I understand what you are saying and in fact, that psychology and so forth is entirely obvious. Of course there is a relative impact/imprinting thing there.. But I also mean what I said - I sometimes do at times get sick of it before it even occurs, and start looking beyond the storm before it even happens. That has nothing to do with invalidating this event - which is interesting the reaction that followed. It proves the sensi bias of readers.