Typhoon Tip

That in of itself is true, but caution not to think that's some boundary on plausible morphologies et al going forward. There's a world out side of the intra-regional spacing of the wave/stream interaction/smaller scales of the modeling depictions - and that outside exertion is not faux factor-able. It's real...and a correction of even subtly bigger western ridge and stronger/steeper diving NP n/stream wave ...all that has nothing to do with the present finite scaled stream dynamical interplay as modeled at this time. I'm not inclined to 'lean' toward any direction and I don't see how an objective perspective could.

Absolutely...yeah. At the end of the day, this isn't going to do much here without the fine-tuned, less margin for error timing of phase - unfortunately... Which means I'm annoyed and put off by it. Because we're asking this season to do that? That's like sending a Down's Syndrome to a Mensa meeting. But... in the interest of fairness... the seasoning ending relaxation and climo for doing so was discussed beginning a couple weeks back and here we are...so, if this piece of dung winter is going to save any face at all, considering all ... this and maybe later next week will be our last guns in the fight.

It's both ... A bigger physical presence in the n/stream will/would tip the flow more S-N and anything in it at that time, ends up north... Part and parcel and necessary in wave interaction/fusion and eventual phasing is that the wave spacing is shared, and that above is how it first initiates. But like I said, the velocity is too fast escaping the SE as sort of a lead separate limiting factor; and that's something also that needs to be overcome. It's basically absorbing the s/stream like pretty much everything that's been shearing do to too much wind speed all season long..It's just not doing "as much" but it's still there. Be that as it may, there's enough there to initiated a cyclogen response, but... that same velocity is also trying to rip that low out to sea before the n/stream has a chance to catch up to it. -- to much wind speed limits 'room for error' in phasing -- n/stream wave mechanics need to come in a little stronger to help pull the total flow structure NW out ahead of the NP dive; it would also help that the backside western ridge bulging would actually happen here. these aren't deal breakers at this time. The first point can be over come by the second one, but I did notice that n/stream was weaker across the board by a smaller margin/panache, and th result of SE track bias fits that for the above reason.

Fun aside, the polar stream wave space that serves as the 'n/stream' capturing device in this whole thing is careening across the "super dense realized data arena " over the N/Pac... This run overall was remarkably in agreement among the available guidance I've seen. Even the ensemble means don't look very philosophically challenging of one another at all... And all, miss the region by a pubes to the SE and probably like always happens on Earth, a region that's been getting lucky continues to do so until the bitter end... NS/NF. The hint is in the lead paragraph... The last time a 'well-sampled' wave space over the west seemed to really matter was way back leading the "Boxing Day" storm...That one was all but lost SE as a near miss for multiple cycles, actually ...and then came storming back in guidance with like 30 hours to spare. Partly sunny/cirrus --> blizzard at less than J.Q. Public can get head wrapped around a forecast, speed. I'm not sure assimilation is still that primitive -and it really wasn't too terribly so back in 2010 compared to now but a decade is getting old. That was 10 f'n years man! wow So, I'm now improving my outlook from cautiously optimistic to optimistic for a bigger/important cyclone occurrence - but am unfortunately forced to erode back to less than cautiously optimistic that cyclone's impact here will be very extraordinary - that by fairness and full-disclosure allows for moderate impact, but that's pedestrian to me by definition. If en masse there is a 150 miles NW bump more unilaterally in the guidance, than we can chalk it up ( most likely ...) to data sparseness and sampling idiosyncrasies out over the open expanse of the Pacific and perhaps more optimism for greater impact will be justified at that time. One thing I am noticing though... ahead of the s/stream wave as it's vestigial spacing is rippling through the deep south... the flow is still cranking along at greater than 50 kts well out ahead escaping the lower MA out over the Atlantic, at mid level geostrophic vectoring. That's not really good for s/w ridging components; those need to roll out and helps feed back on meridional slowing, and thus helps feed in the n/stream fusion etc..etc and way she goes. But with those velocities, they are ablating/taking away the lead roll-out ridging, and that may be feeding back on keeping the track SE of the initial s/stream wave; then, the n/stream being slightly ( by just that much ) weaker than prior runs, it doesn't have quite enough mechanics to do it alone. If a strong n/stream comes in a diving fashion from the NNW, it will 'tip' the flow more S-N orientation off the EC and that would also help pull the s/stream low ignition back NW too. Lot of moving parts that won't really be assessed very cleanly in this situation until probably 84 hours out in time. But, the general gist of an important cyclone: that much is say 70 or 80th percentile. Know what would be funny though, just for morbid laughter? A NAVGEM absolutely no low result - ho man the scale and degree of apoplexy.

It squeezed the ridge entering the longitude over the Plains southwest just a little ..and so the whole-scale structure looks synoptically 'ticked' progressively stretched...which is code for bullshit. It's a nuance of the GFS' native bias being allowed more proxy on a run that's probably not outfitted with the same gunk as the 00z and 12z - that's what it my science-fiction engine sees, anyway. That said, this could be the ultimate butt-bone in a winter prison of tormented hell if this thing verifies as a big deep nasty bomb 50 too far SE for anything other than flurries NW of a cat paw event on the Cape. The winter took it all...then, takes it all -

It’s interesting how all the deepest members are on the western edge it shows where the phase versus no phase members must beIt’s interesting how all the deepest members are on the western edge it shows were the phase versus no phase members must be

Yeah ... I was just helpin' the operational interpretation - word My opinion hasn't deviate from this morning actually ... the ensemble mean of the EPS is buffer there. Also, some individual GEF members approached extreme scenarios, while the mean only vaguely deviated - if another couple members add to that, we'll see that shift begin there too.

Because the first order of intelligentsia to Meteorologists and informed hobbyists that want to be taken seriously ... is to look at ever situation uniquely. Trend is important, but it doesn't dictate the script -

If anyone has any question ...the reason the GFS isn't annihilating the upper MA up through eastern NE is purely a function of bi-passed phasing ...more probably owing to it's progressive bias. But, does have some merit based upon two prognostic philosophies: 1 ... speed contamination is verifying all season and appears to also at minimum be vestigial in this and prior runs. Trend is a checklist item 2 ... the other guidance' are also showing slip partiality with the capture slow down scenario. The 00z Euro was the most proficient run to date, but the 12z ( pun intended ) slipped toward less by a small measure, but enough to limit the event to some sort of dubious looking Norlun with the unusual circumstance of having a closed low embedded inside - that's not likely and probably means the solution's in flux.. This run 18z run is ...well, the 18z run of the GFS for one so axe-head that, but it simply outpaces the northern stream and slips the southern stream and it's associated surface wave partially passed, such that by the time the subsume really takes place the flow is stretched and the capture is way east. Meanwhile, the ridge axis being over the Dakotas during those shenanigans is a red flag that the whole baggage is indeed too stretched and likely to pan west . I'm also noticing there is a tendency across the board to pull the surface pressure contours west in ensemble means some, that usually means there some contention on the western side of the envelope pull the track cluster/mean.

Mm 144 hour Euro's 500 mb is flawless, tho - It just pivots around SNE's lat/lon like that... yeah, whatever - I'm not deviating at all based that look. jesus - still cautiously optimistic

Tru ... Hey I’m still cautiously optimistic – and the way this winter has gone? I think I’ll be fully on board when I’m standing knee-deep in snow two days later

OH, this GFS run is clearly heading toward amplitude and considerations west ...absolutely. Remember, we are in trend modes - these are not etched in stone solutions. You have to reel that cinema in mind's eye and realize where you've been, where we are now, for projecting the future. Adding in the model's native bias, clearly it's speed/progressive stretching tendency is pulling the s/stream and ripping it out faster than the subsuming n/stream can capture - and that could easily be a correction that is in process of unfolding.

12z ICON has gone from 06z implication of doom... to partly sunny with high in the low 40s and early birds darting blithely to and fro - Red flag?

Yeah yeah re the ICON AND that ... but, jus the same, ...to anyone with a modicum of Met insight, the 06z was a juggernaut correction and though that particular cycle only goes to 120 hour ( at TT), that was heading in one direction. ....DOOM

Seein' as I was asked ... I just like dramatic natural events. Period. In fact, I think there is value in seeing the total picture of a driving white-out go to 80 F a week later... that, in its step-back specter ...is incredible as a total event. In fact, cutting that up.. .it would be anomalous at all scales: the storm, the heat, and the storm --> heat. Amazing! Lost on folks ... wow. I think folks tend to want to categorize and preserve relative to those, some sort of emotional attachment to regimes...and thus loathe having to adjust ? Which if true - hint, I think more so than not.. .eh hm.. - this is a weird occupation for exposing that nerve! Because there is 100% chance of never seeing 0 change.

Not to stick my face in the middle of your fledgling squabble ... heh, but, if I may make a suggestion: The QPF layout of the Euro is less paramount compared to it's other kinematics and total evolution of synoptic metrics there... It's way more likely being way too cute and compact east with that, almost treating like a tropical eye-wall - for lack of better description, and usually those CCB juggernauts are physically instructed to a vaster envelope... Just a suggestion though... I mean, these models obviously don't project physically "IM"possible solutions - usually ... it's just up to use to correct for better or worse based on likeliness, which is of course guided by knowledge vs wisdom. So, there's naturally going to be probability/risk in assessment ..haha. But simply put, I just think the Euro QPF layout is a little dubious, big IF it's right otherwise. We'll see.

Very remote chance of repeating +12 monthly departures - that was on par with a freak event - Ha, I wanna do that in July ahhaha

Inclined to agree ... (corrected below) Not that you or anyone else hasn't considered the following comment: It's an easy fix at this time range... no worries on that specific point-aspect. Let's get the 500 mb evolution squared away and we can work with those idiosyncrasies. (corrected below) Furthering thoughts/observation in general: It's D5 entry and early D5 exit, and a massive slow mover. When we start expanding spatially, and then include duration... we end up wrought with all kind of concerns - for obvious reasons. The usual 'over in 13 hours with the heaviest snow falling in 4 hours' type event is conceptually insufficient. You get into storm-specific eccentricities that cannot really be assessed in the deterministic effort. In other words ... snow totals? Good luck. A Euro solution probably froths milk shake air to about CEF, MA arcing to CON NH, with by virtue of intense CCB wind field being so systemically large, and any snow at all is thrashed into a bona fide blizzard/vis profile along the coast. But, we all caution, this solution is the fourth consecutive that's corrected NW and deeper ... and with the EPS showing a reasonably discerned trend toward more organization in the 00z cycle .. ( to mention, the D5-7 duh) no one is convinced this multi-cycle hint is finished constructing its self in the guidance. Also .. this is a subsume phasing and those typically end up nasty for someone. That subsume has been remarkably consistent as a point-aspect, too. Marine and surf being agitated by multi- tide cycles would be significant problem in the Euro solution ...even being 100 mi east of ideal in this particular cycle's synoptic evolution I suspect that would be a concern. Are there any Equinoctial issues? *BUT* if we get a Euro-esque system to move that slow and that deep, with that kind of deep layer total tropospheric response, it will deform/lift the sea-surface into a tizzy either way - normal tides might crush vulnerably shore points with toppling seismographic abyssal walls, regardless. Particularly if that same sort of solution corrects a mere 100 clicks to the west, look out. That would be bad ... The GGEM probably has moderate typical coastal concern. But, if the Euro solution backs so much as a 100 miles west, or slows down sooner, with that that bombogenesis scale and degree? (I'm seeing some 20+ DM total height evacuation across 12 hours .. and you enter that obscene virtual scale where descriptions fade to black...) You simply cannot do that without hell to pay - I'm not being histrionic here; that's just theoretical. It's probably the operation going too bananas, but... just in case it's heading toward reality .. yeah. The capture and stall so typical with these summit events in this solution is in the GOM ... a little N of climo for Hull Mass, but the previous 12 hour crawl by at 960's mb from S to N like that ...I don't even know if there's a good analog for comparison there. I'd say I'm improving my personal odds on this thing to 'cautiously optimistic' for a moderate impact event, that if graduates to actual optimistic, also carries with it a 'corrective vector' pointed toward major. Something like that... We are at the tail end of mid range, ...extending an event from entry point there, to the extended at early D7... It's a unique deterministic scenario... it's cross time scalar because of it plausible majesty in the total circulation of the hemisphere - and I also mind us of the philosophy that large looming scenarios tend to do this sort of thing, and show up with dictation in the runs...like big boulders rolling down the steam and the current of pedestrian events stem their ways around the proxy of the boulder as a metaphor. EDIT: .. having seen the surface evolution of the 00z Euro operation version on Pivotal with better resolution .. we made not need much west track adjustment after all - but the QPF seems oddly underdone given the mid level morphologies across that key 12 hours of that solution - I think that would be magenta in concentric f-gen bands amid a total S/+S CCB head.

Nick may have brought up the best point ...the whole manifold of the pattern is trying to move that whole +PNAP structure bodily into the Atlantic -

Heh... if that storm happens next week and saves a little face on the winter, the impetus there is "little" ... Mr Bouchard still fairly wins the necessity for this winter to go f- it's self.

Yeah ...but just my experience with the UKMET in that range ...it's like it piles up the flow near the end, and maybe correction east like said isn't a bad option - agreed. This is like a 59 yard field goal attempt to stop a 40-0 shut out the way this winter's been going -

If that run went out to D7 I bet it tries to lift that 995'er up the Hudson tho -

GFS is outpacing the southern stream with a helluva lot of total progressive manifold velocity - I mean it's moving/reshuffling the L/W straight on through over the top of the southern stream wave, and just leaves it behind. It's a cold front... The Euro/prior GGEM wanted to slow the N/stream down... It's hard to know if they are just playing into their own biases. Same holds true for the GFS. These models tend to meridian bias vs progressive tendencies, respectively, and it seems they are running with their own tendencies to do so. The GGEM's 12z run certainly bucks it's bias... Then there's the seasonal tenor of missing opportunities and least excuse imaginable ...and often, creatively seemingly to rub it in, too ( haha ). But, there are some vestiges about the flow overall that suggest its a bit more relaxed than a month back...and this is sort of transitioning into that regime this week. It may be growing pains/transition in the runs... The AO is trying to neutralize, albeit transiently this week ...and if that is so over our hemisphere, that actually helps because it eases off the isohypses counts between JB and the Gulf, and may allow a Euro like fantasy more truth. If the Euro comes in ...ah hell - it'll be interesting to see that run.

Ah ...no - these are just observations I'm making. Personally? Beneath 'cautiously optimistic' - as in not as much as that. The seasonal music doesn't groove like this is going to happen, and there's some objective merit to recognizing that trend without it being just histrionic/angry subjective hand waving - There are reasons this season sucked... as I've opined ad nauseam since ... oh, 2005 actually ...how the hemispheric winters are speeding up velocities because HC expansion/ing into the boreal heights and the flow has to physically speed up...and it's an interference pattern - for good or worse is a case by case scenario. This year's been heavily biased in negative interference...

NO shit ..wow, that look right there is a K.U. actually ... prerequisite set up - Also, folks... I did a total wave space comparison and ending on D5/6 that GGEM solution off 00z is ( per my own estimation ) aoa the 80th percentile a March 31 1997 analog. The Euro's phasing is more believable through D6 but it somehow manages to bi-pass the two streams when the day prior, they were already apparently/seemingly integrating along the MA.. Not sure that's physically plausible but it's like "dis - integration" ( literally) after the fact going from D6 to 7 ...and ends up with a middling low up near NF and the mid level N/stream mechanics with blue balls off the lower MA like ...what happened - where did she go. It was already there and the depiction looks united on the coarser renditions, but somehow the S/stream mechanics slips the N/stream despite the grid spacing - interesting...