Typhoon Tip

mm... beware 2015 tho -

Ok, let me ask you something ... what happens if we apply a subtle correction to atone for the Euro bias? Thing is, it would not take much to get the flow down stream N of the Lakes into a confluence with that arm of polar high extending east of the initial -EPO load. Beyond D6 .. I dunno man that's dangerous look for the whole U..S actually. Lots of possibilities there.. I mean I get it it's hard maybe to see outside that box but the model was too far west with this pattern change; how could we forget. We said the Euro could be too deep in the SW several times. Well.. One thing I will note..the flow is fast - let's not forget that. Embedded impulse works ( not that anyone said otherwise ) are liable to be an open wave bottle rocket variety.

I wish we lived in a universe that was really like that... everything in reality had parts well formed and other parts were weird. Course, that would be completely normal -

Yup, solid points The otherwise knee jerk defensive shtick gets a bit tedious -

that's because those right side lines go off the top edge ... i.e., but clearly you studied it for awhile to tried and use your mind, so I say we are making progress.

At least through the first 10 days ... I'm not seeing a huge difference there actually - timing perhaps. But the 850 thermal/ll PP/mid levels appear within acceptable differences.

yeah unfortunately, that look D8-10 can't do much. It's paralyzingly too compressed

I dropped this hypothesis over the summer ... With the HC expansion stuff, early cold snaps can be intuitively fitting ... because that would tend parlay into NE Pac index responses. Heights in that region, however subtle, average higher, lends to this... Question is, does it last. The base pattern for winter may not even yet occurred - though I suspect it does in this case for other topic... This conceptually might begin to atone for the abhorrent increase in snow occurrence in October since 2000 in general. Interesting.

um .. yeah? that was both long predicated and has been in the report attributes

why... they said the climate science is settled... what do you think that means Look your a either a troll, simply put ( and not even a rankably clever one) or are just not even mentally capable of this discussion so best of luck

Well... that's all I need to hear

An important logical flaw in "the climate doesn't cause " arguments is that it seems the denier is too myopic and linear-dimensional in their cause-and-effect grasping. Perhaps it's a mental capacity ... Or a moral one. "Climate" does not maintain an operational presence in the daily dynamical interactivity that takes place in the environment. There is a population ballast that cannot seem to make the next leap of reasoning. Climate used to simply be 100 day, 100 temps, sum(t)/n-terms = the temperature climate across that hundred days. But here's the rub ... that number doesn't tell you anything about the 'character' of your data, whether those temperatures are trending up, or down .. the nature of the extremes ( anomalies) etc. What climate is now, is a description of those tendencies - and it is patently clear this latter aspect is untenable either by personal choice, or personal limitation is said ballast. Because not only is it rising, that rise is no longer linear.. It's curved upward. IF the frequency of big anomalies in a system is also increasing, and, that increase naturally connotes thus the probability of those events are also, and MATCHES what is presently happening ( yet exceeds) it must therefore be statistical significant. By and large - and this can be at times the writing of the scientist, sure - when one mentions the term climate in deference to wild fires, flood food or famine ...tornadoes, hurricanes, blizzards and so forth... they are not saying the climate "caused" the event, they are saying: You are in a climate that favors these things happening - more over ... a NEW one ( ding ding: what do we call that, class!?)

Let me ask you something, when a given set of statistic that looks sorta like this ... what do you see?

Speculatively ? Yes. Certitude mm ...certainty is a difficult word for scientists. I think last year had some legit bad luck - if you will. We can get a lot of nickle and dime events out of fast flows in an overall speed rich environment, but the storm track last year averaged ever so slightly too far NW - which unfortunately is prescribed in the EXC model.. But, it can slip back SE all of 200 miles and still satisfy both worlds.

ah yup.. This is particularly true in autumns and springs at that location. Keep in mind ... Denver is referred to as the "mile high city" .. by and large having elevations ranging between 5,100 and 5,700 feet.. That's like most of the way up Mt Washington if it helps put it in perspective. Warmth at that elevation(s) is gossamer particularly in autumn and spring. It can be wiped out immediately.. Just over that elevation ...say 7,500 feet it's cold regardless, in July. So, any kind of turbulent mixing that moves into that region is going to crumble the air closer to the free air lapse right at height

That D7 Euro reminds me of a slightly scaled up version ( size ) of the Dec 2005 event, only over the Lakes. That's gotta have stinger for ORD!

Lol ... it's like, "who's with me!" yeah...as I seemed to have started this sub-stream, I just wanna clarify ... the word "tendency" was used liberally for a reason in that. In 1989, we had a cryo-November and then putrid Jan and Feb ... I just see it over the long haul, there are more examples where success/failure tendencies during spring(autumn) will parlay into the ensuing summer(winter). Seems is bit different than reality at times tho - it may be that the mind just recalls... I dunno

We do once in while... granted, it's been awhile, but 1989 we had the sea level variation on that. I remember full sun, 11 F with trees bending in the wind in November that year.

I'm not sure where you're going with the angular momentum stuff but I tend to agree regarding the ENSO A weak forcing potential by a weak warm(cool) ENSO gets lost inside an HC that is enormous. That blocks the former's ability to modulate.

I think I have EEE my symptoms have persisted since Tuesday night. ...and of course, looking up symptoms is like matching yourself to horoscope descriptions. Fever, headache, stiff neck, tired... yup - If I let the Advil wear off... I get chills and goose bumps to the spine, and my head hurts. F'n headaches are the worse man. Good christ. What is the evolutionary wisdom in putting nature's greatest achievement in sensory reception, and f'ing pain ... in the SAME GODDAMN CONTAINER. I hadn't contracted so much as a sniffle in the past four years .. a time span in which I've lived like a dietary quire boy. Organic everything. Lots of water. work outs... I figure I was safe.. yeah right. It's probably why my body is acting like it hasn't got a f clue how to get rid of this damn thing. Just waiting for first signs of neurological disorders to kick in as the EEE that's only occurred 30 times all summer found a way to absolutely happen all the time in f me gets to do God's bidding

I am seeing lots of HC compression in the field though ... everywhere. These troughs are plumbing to their nadirs around Colorado's longitude ( or so ), then the southern arcs of them start slopping positively tilted as they are then kicked through the east and are force ( insufficiently ) to try and conserve their wind velocities against that compression velocity. That positive sloping back west is absorption really. This may be a cold blustery pattern for the NP-Lakes and occasional OV/NE regions, with less synoptic organization - a nice example in how velocity saturation is a partial destructive interference. Could be a good gin up for lake effect.

I'm a bit of a fan of 'seasonal precedence,' however. Establish a tendency for certain looks and appeals early on, and usually, per my own experience over the decades ..those tendencies will reemerge in more cases than not - usually with more amplitude when the ensuing season gets properly underway. Obviously by that I mean when cold patterns in autumn or warm patterns in spring. But, I don't mean the pattern structures, per se, I mean the advent - though obviously on some level those two are linked. So, a very warm March in 2012 went on to a historically hot summer for much of the U.S. In 1995, we started getting unusually deep rad cooled nights in late October. I remember that last week of October when I attended college at Lowell. On a couple of mornings the brilliant saffron and yellowed maples along University Ave were being stripped barren in no wind; one morning the Lab put down a 19 F for a low at dawn. The other observation, the typical small rivulets cascading down the aqueduct fascia that always faced north began to freeze in early November, forming fragile infant ice-falls, yet their fragility began to survive the afternoons. These are only observations a nerd might make ... but I remember "feeling" like these were good omens at the time. I mean I don't if there's anything to this but it seems like there is a 'hidden pattern' - really a tendency pattern. Some years it seems one could all but totally forget just how difficult it is to snow, or thunder. Other years the dearth of these coveted cinema types is down-right maddening.

Yeah.. .we covered that ... how, even with just vestigial tendency to still lag wave mechanics too far SW ( and vastly improved over 20 years ago in this particular guidance ) it still does that; but in this scenario, that meridional bias might entice physical wave-space sharing too prodigiously ? I don't so much think really it's "leaving" so much as "digging" too much to begin with? As in, it tends to curved flow too liberally beyond D6 ... 7. It's why it has the D8 bomb on Cape cod as a seemingly permanent D8-10 model feature from T.G. to St Paddy's day.. As an aside I don't think curved flow is inherently favored in a gradient rich total circulation ambiance - which is the result of the expanded HC encroaching on the lower FC latitudes. That interface doesn't need 12 isopleths to get the job done, and that seems to be the new f norm every winter because of the former. Anyway, that doesn't lend there.