Typhoon Tip

I don't like the positive slope of that trough though... It's stealing the DPVA. That's why you want the slope of the trough to 'fish hook' the southern end, so that the DPVA is normal to the isohypses and your UVM blows a hole in the top of the tropopause... blah blah... but, we can still get decent cyclogen too - just saying... it's leavin' some on the field.

Not sure if it's entirely a practical use of time debating that particular model's depiction from 120 hours or so out, but I'd have to say that is an incremental improvement over the 12z run as far as profiling for winter enthusiasts. That's code for ... more snow.

That ICONic p.o.s. model has 4-6" off an NJ model secondary this weekend for what it's indubitably worth -

Right...we haven't attempted to move a storm through a west -based -NAO compression, either. You made it sound like a silver bullet fix was Atlantic... heh...it's a bit more complex than that.

I'm talking about Meteorology here... The heights are anchored in the GW anomaly that's ...just ... it

If you want my opinion ...which I know you gaze out at the auburn sunsets forlorning to hear ... Nope - The SE ridge isn't a SE ridge as is; it is the entire planetary tropical girdle of heights... In other words, that's just a nodule of a beast that frankly, I keep discussing but everyone's either ignoring, or don't understand, or don't take seriously... but, it's well-papered that the Hadley Cell is expanding. Now, this does not directly impugn your assessment when you say "SE ridge" ... buuut, the problem is, the heights are not going anywhere if there is Atlantic blocking/-NAO west based or not... In fact, what results in that circumstance is hellacious Neptunian wind velocities yanking Denver's air mass and fire hosing it at France... Can't get storms in that kind of compressed flow.

oh god. I saw that emblem down in the lower left there and though, "wow - this late in the season"

That's a nother thing... I wonder if we're ever gonna get one of these big rosby rollout warm ups on D10 to actually verify - It's like the opposite of previous years with this model. Usually, there's a D9 bomb on every run that gets so common false people stop even commenting on it. This is like a phantom early spring opposite of that -

I was with you on that... The the error balloons from about D4.5 on that run, re that particular wave. It looks like the model overly conserves it's mechanics and digs it too prodigiously in toward W. TX or thereabouts... and then of course it has to then consider what to do with all that power once it is ejected... ending up in a upstate bomb. I suggest that D4-5 comes out flatter and that thing ends up a NJ model type low ...but I also caution, that's all predicated on the assumption it's right at D4, first.

Re the Euro... I'd like to point out a subtlety. Four cycles ago (12z yesterday), this was a stem-wound bomb up in western/central Ontario re the 5th-ish. 00z last night had that more Buffalo's longitude, with suggestion of a secondary ...at least attempt if not reflection. This 12z run seems destined to continue along that trend of correcting E... I just want to note, that the Euro tends to have a slight west/amplitude trough bias at D7+, so...this syncopated correction isn't without precedence.

Yeah...considering these next ten days to two weeks, looks like three potentials for inclemency: Jan 5-6, 8-9, 11-13 How those perform ( obviously) have more coherency the nearer in time, but It's not hard ( for me ) to see why we are "Lake cutter" saturated with storm tracks, in the mean modeling behavior this cold season. I put that in quotes because my take on things are at odds, philosophically, with the recognition of how/why lows cut early and turn polarward through the Great Lakes longitude(s) as guidance has biased. We are looking at a coincident result, more so than a pattern that typically drives those. The Hadley Cell bloated stuff is simply messing everything up. The storm track is being pushed N in the mean - this is papered... - and North America seems to be suffering the same. That's different from a pure -PNA/-PNAP flow construct. Having said that, there are ways to overcome that forcing ... There just needs to be relative anomalies embedded with the necessary power to do so. Which can and will at some point happen. As well, just because the HC is inflated anomalously "heighty", doesn't mean it will always be that way... So things can time that way, too. It's not a good era for modeling ...particularly latter mid and extended ranges, because the velocity saturation and 'stretching' of wave mechanics makes determinism at an excessive premium to put it nicely.

I couldn't agree with this more... yeah. Thing is, it's a sociological problem - if we want to put a sciency sounding label to it. I have a PHD friend in the academia of the Boston circuit of Universities ( MIT-BU-Harvard and gang if it helps to drop names...) and she's utterly agreed with me on that, that the GW "debate" isn't a debate - it's an advantageous era where people have become complacent with the conveniences of this post Industrial Revolution -based tech culture. If someone literally feels physical and emotion pain and anguish as a direct consequence and penalty of GW, they'll admit it. It's that simple...thus, it's a sociological problem when integrating that baser evolutionary aspect into the whole. Humans... all animals for that matter, don't respond as well to stimulus they cannot directly sense through one of the corporeal senses: Sight, Sound, Touch, Taste or Smell... and usually, more than one is more convincing. GW? Doesn't have that advocate... It's specter is invisible...particularly when the person hearing or reading about it, is submerged in examples that are always somewhere else in the world, while always when they are sitting in a comfortable office or personal living space. Even the poorer classed hoi - polloi that don't have quite all the accessibility to the same advantages as higher echelon, live luxuriantly cozy existences compared to the 47-year old life expectancy of their paleo-forefathren ... People deny GW/CC ...whatever we want to call it, because they can...and, they will do what they can, if it takes not having to face that they can't live the way they've grown accustomed to living. That's the problem facing the World. ...and why that 'catch-22' will probably require a massive population correction and tech set back, before some form of non -profligate, responsible/conservative approach to building the scaffold of future society heralds the real next phase in human evolution. Which,...this is that turning of the page - it never goes smoothly... That's being optimistic, too... We don't even know what the finality of these detrimental evidences are, as they are still in the process of f'n the environmental as it is. We keep fielding papers that x, y or z is worse than projected it would be. ...list goes on... The catch-22? It's because the very evolutionary advantage that the vicissitudes of gratuitous chance endowed humanity with, the genius of ingenuity, appears destined to have created it's own demise. Cheers

I understand what you are saying /mean ... I think.. But for the general reader: one has to be careful with the above line of reasoning. It's used/abused, to negate the impacts of climate change to liberally...almost as a rationalization and denial of truth, because most in the business of doing so have too much to gain or maintain, in not admitting that it is a problem - more over, that it is a problem that all science included, most definitely appears to be human attributed. That said, there is another danger in the above line of reasoning; it also negates the necessity to use climate trend analysis in the setting of expectations. If the climate is demonstrating a logorithmic change ( accelerating one...) in either a negative or positive direction, wrt to any metric, it is wise to consider that ensuing period of time in question might exhibit that same tendency in that metric. Otherwise, there is no problem - the way I see it ... - it assuming events and systems in a case by case basis, independent of that expectation. People have trouble separating those two... but, it's really more like ... if a case ends up warm, and the climate curve is accelerating warmer, ...the probability was > 50% for that in the first place. The real problem here is that climate masks causality. People use that against the climate signal, which is false. Not you per se... but these are aspects pertinent to the present World, and one's that irk me.

This social -media arena has a concentration of those plugging their joy circuitry/dependency into the drama they see on charts. Blah blah ... been opining this for a long time, but at times it is still down right patently like the 60-minutes expose on psychotropic addiction behavior. Hm, I guess it's better than opiodes, but ... it doesn't lend at all to objective thinking/perception on matters. I'm with Brian ... you guys 86 a month based on what? Okay. To each his, her, or whatever variation of gender-reassignment's own I guess...be miserable if that's your bag man You might not have to wait as long as you think... Just look at member P8 at 228 hours from 00z last night. This would shut down the PHL-BOS corridor completely...

Yeah, Will and I were musing about the cold thrust possibilities... We figured - climo and experience - that the models wouldn't really see that discrete of a detailed behavior because it is still outside their resolution wheel-house. Something about the planetary/atmospheric interface ... the geo-physics are missing? It needs furthering science and evolution, because it's an area of modeling that as far as I can tell, is invisible to them. So, they set up but don't do the push, or that tornado ... you know? ... But it's up to human interpretation and experience to then modulate/fill in for those disadvantages. The art is not going overboard with buns and ketchup, heh And to your point, .. MOS is a climate sloped product as we know, so it performing better intuitively fits there.

Really an impressive melange event. Our glaze is the 'gray' type, because it's 90/10 water and pixie crystals mixed, which just means there a bit of air trapped in the ice.

Yup

Lol, message received loud and clear... That was the one thing we danced around before this thing, and that is that the models would f that up one way or the other.

Yup.. echo that visage over here in Ayer. Looks like we did end up with ~ .2" of accretion from this thing after all, and 2 .. maybe 3" of cement on the ground. Icing was having difficulty taking place prior to last evening. We were either IP, or wet snow much of the day, then got interesting. We had a couple of thunderstorm around supper time - of all things ... Nary a peep re thunder in any forecast efforts that I saw prior to the event. Nonetheless, flash-boom-ba, with very large sleet pellets - probably stuck together... We then settled back into moderate sleet and ZR, in a fog of pixie dust, with temperature sliding into the upper 20s... Worse part of the storm for us over here was definitely between 5pm and midnight last evening, with anything prior to quite forgettable. It was tough getting around and just nasty out of doors last night.

Funny ... I didn't see one forecast agency, public or private, from government to television or social media alike, anywhere, put thunder in the forecast ... This meant business. Three brilliant flashes, loud thunder and moderate sleet with big noodles... Stands to reason on the nose of this powerful mid level jet currently fisting over... If it wasn't for our unique topographical suck factor drawing that cold down from the N... this was really about a warm pattern event, and may as well have been late summer. We score for having our predicament sometimes, huh -

Hmm... Looking around at Wunderground as an unofficial layout of temperature behavior... I'm not seeing that the cold push occurred quite as prodigiously as I thought it might, given that leading panache offered by the various models/blends for this thing. I thought I'd be upper 20s at the surface here in N Middlesex by now, with an even colder intervening region being fed by barrier jet ...offering a faux growth region below the deeper elevated UVM/warmer layer way up there... Net result, would be light to moderate sleet with some tiny aggregates mixed in. We are getting the sleet with weak growth snow, but it's wet snow...and though the surface did briefly drop to 31.5 about an hour and a half ago, it has since risen to 33 everywhere around... I can't say I'm disappointed if this ends this way. I'm not really a fan of icing... If we can ice to .33" accretion and stop, that provides the brilliant prismatic splendor while keeping the lights on the internet connected and the home heated... I'm fine with that

We just flashed froze here in Ayer. ...We had a thin sheen of watery sleet on the ground, cars and side-streets at dawn, but temps would not allow it to completely congeal as it was 32 .. 33 at most local Davis' type home-stations. Just in the last 45 min we're 31.4 (ish) at most sites, and the drizzle/pixie mixture has not only gone pure pixie, there is are small, steady light aggregates of snow accompanying. The water part of that slop is hardening quite fast! The snow ( I surmise ) must be nucleiating below 800 mb if those models were correct. There is an occasional ping along side the snow, furthering evidence of multi-layer genesis going on aloft. Fascinating

There’s an interesting blob of plain rain on ptype surrounding my vicinity to ASH while sn w-e-n-s of it. Refuses to flip over there just wobbling around in the loops.

34/34 light rain cat pawing yuck

This is a GW/ Hadley Cell bulge into a winter BD scenario. All fields exaggerated because of that and you end up with huge polarity. All these lows are doing this now… I can direct you all the papers showing how the storm tracks all over the hemisphere suspiciously being pushed north because of the HC expansion with global warming. It’s fn up the winters. Also the flow being so fast is definitely having an influential impact on cyclones frequency and amplitude