Typhoon Tip

Hard to say but that may be on the shallow side of 'when' the paradigm shift occurs... where I suspect two weeks is on the deeper end of that... Perhaps D10 thereabouts. It's almost like the Euro has more MJO forcing in it's genetics (if you will...) The GFS and GEFs for that matter, now ...GGEM included, have taken to consistently carving out eastern heights and lowering the Caribbean thermal dome more prodigiously by D10. The Euro fights this ...which is a bit more correlative for a uber Phase 6 MJO ... But here's the real irony... the Euro's MJO is comparatively weak or non-existent in Phase 6! Weird...it's like the Euro's operational behavior is a better match for the GEFs MJO and vice versa. How's that for a mire of confusion - I think in the end it all red flags a pattern change. ...to what, time will tell.. Again, to re-iterate. None of this is really associated with any SSW (AO) stuff... This appears to be a pattern alteration prior to any AO pancake event. Which is not even clear whether that's going to be the case in mind mind. Ironically (again) the AO in the CPC is actually rising in the mean in the extended. As well, I checked the strat/trop monitoring sources that give the GEFs modeling for the sigma levels up there; there's really no conclusive evidence that the warm node presently emerging is or will ultimately be of the down-ward propagating phenomenon. But's that all an aside...

not to be a dink, but are you reading these posts? like, taking them in? I'm asking because this statement of yours seems almost amusing given the tenor of this last two pages, in which Will himself has just mused the lost virtuosity in discussing pattern changes in lieu of obsessing about snow. In other words, you made his point! I would be willing to guess that ...roughtly half that two hundred pages is grab-assy internet frolic as usual, which can and does constitute pain and anguish by those that 'just want snow' but, ...that leaves a considerable contribution by those that are engaging in "pattern discussion"

That "easier access," right right ... And it's ease for multiple reasons. Folks getting to consume those sources more readily at a couple index probes and thumb slide or two... But also, really are benefiting from graphics that have dumb-down and spelled it all out. Your in your 30's now... I'm not sure when you came of Met age...but, me being in my 40's I remember when all there was was black and white DIFAX charts... About my Sophomore year in college...the internet and graphics-related software really took off and overnight... the landscapes of consumable weather-related products - it was like opening a door into a new interpretive universe of reality. Suddenly...it's true: wrenches and pliars and hammers became fascinating to look at. It's funny ...because I don't think that was the intent of the technology - it seems like the entertainment and subsequent 'joy' dependency emerged as sort of a result of giving all these numerical models their three-dimensional corporeality.

It's fascinating how that... in turn triggers defensive attempts to abase by laughter and chiding ...because laughers and chiders know inside, the truth is a representation of them.

Sorry dude ! hahaha... two phenomenon: what will said - new one, model entertainment as a codependency source ... that codependency is much like a drug (seriously...) because there are 'joy' and 'elation' sensations provided by these virtual stories and cinema of the models.

I think that's possible... in fact, "...but it's probably just..." was the internal monologue this morning. As I'm sure you are aware, there is a whopper (as of yesterday ...) signal in the late mid and extended range American cluster for a paradigm shift. This (for others...) precedes and is not consequentially related to the side-car discussion in the last couple of weeks re the SSW and any eventual -AO. That's a separate, albeit 'winter encouraging' matter. Anyway, said shift features a robust 2 to 2.5 total SD recovery in the positive direction by the PNA, true at both the CDC and CPC agencies. And it's reasonably well continuity-footed. Meanwhile, having the EPO flirt with neutrality is not a bad complexion (though CPC doesn't appear to calculate the latter? ...which is annoying) for winter enthusiasts. The NAO is showing it's usual stochastic bop around but it too is also been more neutral with intervals of neggie curvature out there in time. I like it that both the low lvl wind flux calculation is on the same page with the middle tropospheric height anomalies. There disparate methods will move more together than not for obvious theoretical reasons... however, the continuity spanning several night's worth of computations with neither playing catch-up (which does happen from time to time) is suggestive of a well anchored pattern. I mentioned this to Don in his thread out there in the Gen. W. D. late last night recovering from an 'nog buzz ...that it's interesting how the ECM' cluster seems to be more reflective of the MJO forcing, if not empirically ...by complexion of the fact that it cannot seem to find another look than pummeling lower heights through western N/A and maintaining the SE ridge at least excuse imaginable. Which segues into your yo-yo ... The model (operational that is...) did start bending the total layout of it's curved lines (hahaha) a little more suggestive of said paradigm shift in that previous run...But, last night, it went right back home to mommy MJO. The GGEM ...it went much more aggressively in favor of the GEFs/GFS's fyi - ... Either way, the MJO is moving quickly... The free-sites have the GEFs version of it strengthening in Phase 6 (while again... somehow limiting it's influence), which is a bad correlation for winter geese over eastern middle latitudes, granted ... but it's haulin' ass and 'ill be entering a Phase that IS a good correlation in just ten or so days. I wonder if the Euro cluster sort of collapses (if we will) when that extrapolation comes into their range? I wonder what those Weekly sources are doing now - Not intending to preach to the quire here ... just sayn'

Agree in principle ... but, I think there is a new kid in the "neurosis" neighborhood ... and he (or she...heh) goes by the name of 'model codependency'. It's been a fascinating evolutionary ... sort of, 'anthropological' journey over the many years. What your saying is certainly true. As someone who has been in varying involvement since the early days of ... oh, gees "Wright Weather"? ( Wow) ... then, Eastern... ultimately, this social media outlet/community, I've been able to witness the transmutation of contributor styles and agendas, looking back over the last ten to fifteen years. I can say with objective confidence, when Wright was in its hay-day, the contributorship was more generically weather fixated... But, there was a tendency/bias toward winter. As Eastern got more popular and hijacked user-ship away from Wright et al ... eventually the crucible of time purified mostly just winter obsession ... with a few folks of pan-dimensional interests - but honestly, I noticed these latter types would not stick around. The most logical explanation for the attrition of that sector ... the best I can guess is/was that the daily grind of was like pushing their content and subject matter to the outside like a centrifuge hyper-focusing winter at a hot core of enthusiasts... So perhaps they lost interest and moved on. As American was speciated from that environment ... lifting the ballast of its original user-base from that pool, concomitantly that means it's already pretty strongly tended toward what you are describing ... however, I propose a new phenomenon: I call it 'model codependency' but ...what that is intended to mean is best described by saying: 'for some returning users.... a lot of them, the desire to encounter model presentations of drama supersedes the event its self'. A fact that came to coherence for me when observing a clear and registerable difference in 8" events that were modeled 7 days ahead of time, successfully, versus those that reared up and 'little crittered' with little headway/warning for which the user core could marinade in the imagination and wonder of what might be in a dystopian model cinema. And here's the way that works - probably - ... the 'feeling' excited about a dramatic 'modeled' event, simply becomes a phenomenon-relationship that is not part of reality. Sorry for what that implies... but it simply is true. It's a closed system - user sees model bomb, get excited (which is technically a dopamine response by the way...), and thus, need to see the next model run to get back to that high. All the while this distraction of their lives (which ...of course they do not see or deem as being such...), ...it can be taking place without ever having looked out the window! Anyway, while I agree with your sentiments entirely (snow enthusiasts filter what they read...), I sense a separate sort of phenomenon has evolved over the years in the general public access to modeling tools. And, it's not just endemic to the users of this social media, either... Evening news' have taking to elaborate graphical cinema ...tapping into the natural tendency of the average viewer's imagination and excitement to 'hook' them into watching the next showing, by putting up GFS vs the ECMWF virtual storms. All that excitement of impending "cautiously harmless" dystopian entertainment is really a pretty heavy intent by the users whether they realize that pattern of behavior or not. Just another charm of the e-zombie world we've created for ourselves.

It's interesting how the EC is more so than the American cluster, representational (perhaps) of that theoretical forcing. Its almost like the GEFs fights

12z Euro also sends a coherent chinook plume ESE outta the eastern slopes of the Canadian cordillera ... Prolly won't mean much to us as it gets deflected and ultimately absorbed into the ongoing continental warm departures already going on in the Mississippi Valley to M Atlantic and points south. But I do find it interesting because that behavior was favored/part of the total expectation when we started this thread and it's kind of cool to see that materialize -whether it verifies or not, not withstanding

Just FYI ... general reader A critical correlation metric between these stratospheric warm intrusion events and the AO relates to whether they are downward propagating. Currently the GEFs cluster suggests so, but the verification may demo more in the way of that specific behavior over the next ten days. If so ... the lag is two to three weeks from first onset. ... which is now; a historic inference lands a would be PV morphology in the ides of Jan. Also as others have noted… Negative AOs do not always distribute cold in the middle latitudes evenly, should this all lead inexorably to -AO; it may favor one side of the hemisphere My present hypothesis is that with the modest warm ENSO correlation favoring (perhaps) positive PNA back end Winters that may actually parlay/prone Rosby positioning ... establishing a cold conveyor over the Canadian Shield if those two statistical behaviors play out according to their majority historical precedence.

SSW registering now ... not only modeled. Time will tell if it's a down weller

To be fair ... futility should technically be <= ".01" because values less than that are theoretical and cannot be 100% proven false or true based upon no measuring being absolute. ...

Fyi - That's the Climate Diagnostic Center source above. There is another, which "might" be arguable as being more pertinent to winter weather, but don't quote me. Those are provided by the Climate Prediction Center. The CDC determines the low level tropospheric wind anomalies. Increased low level flux from the N within it's domain designation means (-) sign. Naturally... flux going N is (+). Those, when the low level wind flow in the N Atlantic Basin is averaging S ... depending to what magnitude that is the case determines the -NAO and vice versa. The CPC determines the mid level tropospheric geopotential height anomalies. The negative phase state features higher than normal heights. The positive naturally being opposite. Referring back to classical Meteorological training ... higher heights concomitantly is associated with increased surface pressure... such that when there is a higher heights over say... western Greenland, there tends to be increased surface pressure in the vicinity beneath ... Since wind always flows from sources of higher toward lower pressure to conserve mass everywhere at all times perpetually and seamlessly when dealing with gases of any medium in free space, even for the total nimrod ... hey! -NAO at CPC must also be a -NAO at CDC because the heights and the low level wind are inexorably linked. In essence that is true... However, there is time variable to consider ... Rapid phase changes in the heights of CPC, may precede the low level wind anomaly detection of the CDC ... by some. At larger than mesoscale phenomenon, The atmosphere always changes aloft, first. Therefore, a rising (falling) index at CPC may in fact not represent identically at CDC in terms of total standard deviation. Think of CDC as the result of balancing/restorative forcing within days of rapid changes in the other... Or, in times when the CPC may modulate more slowly... the CDC may more properly reflect a similar index complexion. For winter, it is the larger-scaled height nodes, positive or negative, that signal the orientation of the larger wave progressions in the atmosphere ... These wave feature when/where storms evolve...the cold or hot conveyors are situated... and on and so on... So it seems intuitive that the CPC might be "slightly" more instructive on the real d(status) of things.

Most likely a variation along/within the same decadal (perhaps multiple at that...) climate tendency that began roughly around the year 2000. Looking at even a hundred years prior ... provides a suggestion of rareness to observe October snow. Since 2000? wow. Some 1/3 to perhaps 1/2 (regional scale) of all Octobers have delivered more so than merely a in the air snow; measurable above a trace, and perhaps the most important distinction, not just at elevation either. Since 2000 was nearing 20 years ago ... it engenders an interesting question: whether this increased frequency is merely "millennia noise," or do these represent a fundamental systemic shift. I mean ...20 years vs 1000 (millennium) is obviously negligible 'sounding.' However, the shortest route to a deceived destination is paved in one of the following two: linear statistic inference; GOP lobbyists getting their hands on linear-based statistics so that they may do the inferring for you. For everyone else, the behavior and 'gestalt' of the data are mutually exclusive, and the best description of the truth about the system in question isn't 'what happened,' it's 'how did it happen'. 1991 ... the usual serrate of the Globe's on-going climate curve had its noise, but the years since 1978 were essentially on a trend-predictable rise in temperature. There were more at 'standard' outliers, but overall ... I think that period was gently upward sloped ... with less in the way of larger standard deviation years. Then, Pinatubo erupts... Said serrate over the next five years, begins exhibiting a secondary trend(s) ... indicating something had disrupted the status quo. Pinatubo ... d(status) ... Pinatubo ... d(status) ... Wasn't a terrible cause-and-effect assumption. I'm not sure where I'm going with that ... but I think it centers around if someone were to look at the 1990's, then compare it to the last thirty years in total, they may immediately assess that climate change rises(falls) summarily in accordance to that behavior, but that would be wrong. The defining influential aspect of volcanism would be missed from their calculation. The point of all this... 20 years of defined onset climate variance is enough (at least for me) to consider a pan-systemic influencer on the system But more to original point ... one might wonder if "snow in October" should even be considered all that big of a deal in this "new" regime any more.

SSW showing some semblance again of actually down-welling in the GEFs ... an important factor for eventual (lag) -AO response... Not to be mistaken with vortex splitting prior to ~ 20 days from now... Prior to any or all of that... there is also a three day continuity/coherent index suggestion for storminess leading to and throughout the first week of January.

I think it'd be interesting if we got blanked 'till March 1 then got a 70" month capped by a weird 20" powder bomb 1982 style in the first half of April. The snowiest no winter ever

Farmers Alm was mild and wet. But that one seemed to get swept under the rug. Heh

I'm actually a little less optimistic for winter weather enthusiasm than any "... Some winter threats appear mixed in at times..." conciliatory rationalism offers - that'll prolly make sure this collection of lucid and objective engagers won't read any further ...huh. I would never say probability is zero - that's just not the way of atmospheric vagaries. In fact, the 1:1 correlation coefficients that exists between claiming and failing, that science for some reason never actually has formally papered ... will make sure to point that out in the most insidious way it can relative to all observers. Here's how that works: It's quite analogous to the electron double-split experiments - perhaps you've heard of them? ...Okay, never mind ... just know that in advance Physics, it has been shown via attempts to empirically witness fundamental particles of nature, that one cannot simultaneously observe the atmospheric kosmic dildo, while simultaneously measuring its momentum, ... because of the uncertainty principle. Yes...this quantum mechanical exertion of concealing the real intent of nature, cannot in fact conceal the fact that nature is concealing that intent - we call this, a paradox. Whether talking about virtual particle trajectories of sub-atomic Baryonic particles... or integrating the infinite number of them to formulate the maelstrom majesty of the entire atmosphere ... at either dimension that means that the time it takes to make the observation, the object of the observation has already moved. So, that means taking this to logic end ... all of reality must be intrinsically designed so that you don't get to know the truth. Moreover, the designer is eternally blessed with entertainment while it watches you writhe ultimate failing the fight to find it. You only get to see the outcomes... See how that works? That way some creepy weirdism shy of actually calling it a super-natural force reserves the right, at all times, to alter reality away from the winter storm(heat wave) sure bets weather forecasts ... Creative writing aside ... there are no absolutes. Even in the worst of times, some-thing may eek out an anomalous presence. This business is really all about juggling probabilities relative to favorable pattern regimes. It's not as complicating as that may sound ... to any, tech-numbed emoji-based e-zombies. When this sort of -PNAP pattern is opposite, with more negative departures situated east ...while there is a more neutral geopotential medium southeast/Florida ... those probabilities in those eras go the other way - it's not 100%. When there is a preponderance of elevated geopotential heights over the GOM and adjacent southwest Atlantic Basin ... Caribbean, you probabilities for incurring a winter storm is lower - it's not zero. This latter version is our plight until further notice. I see the probabilities right now as heavily sloped against what y'all want, and heavily sloped in favor of a coveting trolls that lurk. For those...this is a snipe heaven... drive by shooter's gallery. Moderators of the Lord Of The Flies internet forum need to actually do their jobs and cut some access testicle off until this two week stint finally alleviates naturally. ...oops, hopefully I'm not one of them... Seriously, not much changed since I started this thread. People are heavily referencing the EPS ... My basis for formulating the SE ridge/bad pattern intoned statements were rooted in the GEFs.. I said then, they do fine...provided the user knows how to use them. Well - so far...feeling pretty vindicated. Which, unfortunately doesn't help your cause... because now, both the GEFs and EPS are targeting your butt cheeks for contusions. Ha... oy ... One thing I find interesting... it makes me wonder if this is really that relaxation... Maybe the EPS mean, in its own inimitable way was merely rushing that in before... Ironically ... just as collectively, some users seem to also rush the world through SE ridge pattern... which technically, hasn't even occurred. It was supposed to be Xmass through the first week of January ... Tenor in here comes off like denial or evasiveness to that which is still likely to still occur - not absolutely of course.

I just meant the pattern look favorable for ice from Christmas until the first week of January with the South East Ridge and the northern Jets s Canada. It's Not worth it to focus on anything specific

If the NAO does tank ... that might be true for the interim ... but the whole winter? egh, good luck. I still think between xmass and ny the Lakes-OV-NE regions are prone to ice events. Scott's "schit streak" jet core running SE across eastern Canada, while the SE ridge rims over top confluence surface PP...and deep layer troposphere vortexes volleying wind maxes along in between is prime real-estate of overrunning episodes.

You guys should take the icing idea along the way there... Not seeing much indication that's registering to the reader... but, if the N/stream remains active, and with very recent NAO progs indicating that may be the case, ... -NAO/-PNA with SE ridge is ice event climo -

oh sorry - cool...

I'd say it moved long perfectly ... and - unfortunately - has relayed right into a SE ridge period. But, ...you know? I mentioned this a long while ago. Pretty obvious...perhaps, but, the circumstances et al had to 'relax' anyway. I mean, really ... was anyone delusional enough to think that 9 F on T.G. and the snow storm of that era, were going to repeat indefinitely when looking forward from climatology at that particular temporality? ... some were wondering if they could hold out, no doubt..

I'm sure you've ...et el have considered this, if not ... you should, but that could turn out to be a couple of icing events through that five days. The thing is,... each model is offering their individual charm as far as their typical biases go. The Euro appears to dig perhaps too much out west; even if just a little, there's so much foundation for SE ridging, the superposition of even subtle bias with bloating heights SE ... overwhelms in that evolution. Contrasting (perhaps enough?) the GFS is slightly more progressive, such that the trough out west is teensy weensy critical amount enough not as deep, and that helps flatten the latitude expanse of the eastern/SE heights. The Euro version offers some over the top high pressure...keeping us wedged at times enough to really prevent a truly awesome warm departure - albeit, too warm for anything else, However, the GFS and its soon to be brought-on-line parallel runs are both using said over-the-top high pressures with enough weight to cause either SWFE like your seeing...or if the fast flow in general shears out a little more we end up with less Lakes cutting cohesive cyclone and more in the way of ice storm set ups -

Case in point ...there could be a icing event brewing out there between Xmas and NY's