Typhoon Tip

Hey... that may not be a bad thing... I know other's gimme crap for referencing ...but, when your primaries are hitting at an event and then the less reliable model types try to lean that way, I don't personally believe that, in its self, is a bad thing. It shows there's some sort of presence in the general physics of the period -

I have no recollection of those charges ...

In any case ... I'm not saying the GFS solution - or the like... - can't happen. I just see that as lower probability for the usual suspects, which are all legit concerns. I did notice since posting that, however, ...that there are a few members of the GEFs 00z that indicate some sort of amplitude at from the N/stream trying to entangle in that time frame so heh... Thing is, it is D6 like Scott hinted that's not exactly a D10 86'er range... It's mutable in both directions, but not entirely based upon fractals at that range. Trope applies, this next run might be interesting blah blah

Oh ...I'm with you... I am absolutely not above shit man - I'll be the first to admit that and always have. But you gotta have wise-ass douchebags like me around too to help balance out the rhetoric... Hey - I call it exactly how I see it. If it's f'ed worse than the tenor that date... no problem! Guess I'm the asshole that day.

That was last gf's nickname

Oh ...I gotha. Mm, I just roll-eyes sometimes at it all ... Admittedly, I don't spend as much time with the personalities of everyone in here enough to know when it's kidding/chiding/serious ...or legit crazy... But when I said, "... And I'm sure if that was riddled with optimism that feeds the group delirium there would be a different response. ... I was snarking about the hypocrisy that's pretty common everywhere in society in general - not just in here, but we're certainly not immune. If the content was all rah-rah everything is awesome! There's usually steady accolade stream about how awesome the post is - that's all... Personally? I used whine and bitch and obsess over getting storms back in the Weather Channel hay-days of the 1980s to mid 1990s. ...as I date myself. By the time the late 1990s rolled around I was a bit too hardened by disappointments, but also ..had expanded my interest areas to a broader pallet of distractions to get "quite" the same vested value into this gunk. I am still passionate about winter weather (and summer for that matter) phenomenon ... so enjoy the engagement for the analysis therein. I'm equally taken in by both seasons.. Heh, it's why I hate April so much... It's a like a 13 month from hell from some dimension devoid of sight and sound known only as the Twilight zone. It's the closest you'll ever see me get to a "melt-down" ... May 2005 is the absolutely winner ... irony being ... not April. But, that 2005 May was the worst "April" static bum violation ever. It was like the universe its self used our figurative collective head as the actual device in the ass pumping of a weather shit hole. Does that clear up how I felt ? ha I can switch on the dime ... I mean if it's 80 F tomorrow I equally amazed. I'm probably a frustrating dude to follow because of those itinerant tendencies.

yeah we're in a slow time at the office ... Things 'ill pick up and then I'll miss out on some bomb -

That was 10 minutes... big expenditure

not sure what this is after or means... I've noticed a double standard /hypocrisy in here just like everywhere else in society...

Best job in the world ... And I'm sure if that was riddled with optimism that feeds the group delirium there would be a different response.

GFS solution is dubious though ... It's unclear where the western Ontario polar stream smear that organizes into a diving S/W ultimately comes from... The western Canadian geopotential medium/evolution through there has modest ridge amplitude, check, prior to the southward plunge through the Lakes of that carving feature. You really need that, and the southern rider, both, for the subsume scenarios. These aspects are demonstrated with shocking panache ... too well to sit well in fact, considering there is still yet 48 hours worth of model cycles before any of that time frame enters the useful area of the old reliability curve ... to put it nicely. Looking closer at the intervals and going backward in time it appears the N/stream loading is coming through Alaska's attenuating gyre up there ... prior to that it's not clear if it comes from the N- Pac or if its relayed from N. Asia over the lower B. Sea.. But, it gets dumped over western Canada and the ridge subtle flex then incites its dive ... where perfectly timed ally-'oop southern stream weakness provides the subsume domain space.. It's 1978 -esque ... really. If one goes back and looks at that total evolution, that facet in general would air apparent to both with all intended "pundamental" glory - Not saying the GFS is phantom feeding us perfect stream interaction that is, in total, achieving extraordinarily high mechanical conservation proficiency at 144 hours out in time, buuut, ... that seems more likely what the model is doing. ... Yes yes, I'm sure the Euro will come in with out of nowhere supporting huge adjustment ... if for purely non-scientific intent, just to make this very prudent skepticism seem wrong ... But being dealt reverses seems to be the bemusing, repeating theme to this whole shit show saga over recent weeks. In any case, it is at least true to say ... a pretty leap in its own performance curve getting all that to happen. It is that ending sardonic tone that would have me at a pause ... The under-the-radar outcome off all those dealt-reverses modeling ventures ... come hell or high water has not meant snow and winter profiled events... So regardless of how we get there, that is a trend that is hard to knock after month+ consistency. I guess at the end of this morning rant the old axiom should apply: perfect solutions beyond three ... or even two days time usually don't survive. We'll see...

then, 330 hours + corrects everyone's seasonal snow fall deficits (if they exist) to well above normal...

The usual trope applies ... it's just for entertainment at this range... but, that 180 hour frame there is a blizzard. Period. What happens there across that evolution is light snow and flurries goes to 1/3 mi vis with 1/4 mi vis along the pike. 4-6" or so... Than, at closest pass, band of locally < 1/4 mi vis pivots up to Rt 2 with a lighter 1/2 to 3/4 mi vis fading to a bullets in wind from middle CT to Brockton Mass... 'Nother 5+" NW to 2" of ice/ammo/ and noodles SE... Then, as the storm concentrates media at max, bands meld and CCB with winds accelerating to 50mph gust with 1/4 mid vis everywhere for a clear 4 to 6 hours ... good for another 4-6" with falling temps through the low 20s making much of it airborne How it's fun to speculate -

They should see the experimental run ... heh

I live alone... what can I say -

we're laughing passed each other ha... I mean "yeah yeah yeah" as a continuation of the commiseration. Too much is lost in a toneless media - Anyway, just had a packing pallet squall here... Pretty cool watching it rolling in...as the fractured sky lights were being obscured like some grand stage operator closing the curtains. Sheets of pallets waving down the street as the white noise elevated through the trees. It reminded me of circa teenager ...when dad makes you go out and rake the lawn during the season's first chilly air mass of mid autumn. Even smelled the same way... heh. I guess par for the course for a winter that cannot commit for any reason imaginable since that cold snap of November. Perpetual autumn You know... I was musing to self about this the other day... it almost seems similar in some ways to 2012... Got cold, cashed in ...then cashed out... Just did it a month later in climo... Obviously there are no leading correlative paramters ...I'm just pattern of sensible porking is quite painfully similar thus far.

yeah yeah yeah... well, it may be that it's just having issues in a pattern change? Or, ...maybe the pattern change air apparent by everything discussed over the last couple -a weeks, while real ... don't quite have the power to pull the PNAP out ... I dunno

I guess the present modeled MJO curve from the panoply of the guidance given here, http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml ... do in fairness "suggest" something my be wrong. The curve of the wave has jolted robustly into the margin between the 7th and 8th quadratures of the WH diagram. Weee... buuut, it summarily decays ... like, abruptly so. That abruptness will be interestingly tested over the next 24 hours for one. But, it may be a flag that the Pacific isn't really in constructive wave interference for wave spaces trying to enter the western hemisphere. For those that have been following this... that may mean the Pacific WPO-NP-EPO arc is not really good for winter enthusiasts ... as it's instruction down wind over N/A's mid latitudes may not favor +PNA, whether the MJO wave is trying to pass through or not. This operational Euro really looks like it's operating two distinct paradigms concurrently. Above roughly the 50th parallel ...there is a pallid semblance to cold loading pattern over the Candadian shield, while below that, raging -PNAP boner is pounding our indignity from the Pacific.

I kind of like Kevin's 'hot' take on winter ... To see such a banal impression from someone that usually needs 0 cause for inspiration is encouraging in a way... Anyway, ...what in the f is the operational Euro doing? My god... I realize we're suffering some data outages do to this on-going appropriations thing but as of last registry ... there are 0 hemispheric factors that connote a solution like this 12z beyond mid week. Really baffling...

https://www.msn.com/en-us/video/viral/paraglider-survives-harrowing-encounter-with-dangerous-dust-devil/vi-BBRLYoR

Objectively... the final call on this can't be rendered until the runs tomorrow. I realize however that objectivity is a rarefied approach these days ... but, that is still true despite your inconsolability at this time. There is still still some probability > 0 that the S/W mechanics relaying off the Pacific 18 to 24 hours from now, modulate the end results downstream over NE. ...It could be for better, it could be for worse... The paranoia of the weather-model-codependent junky most certainly assumes the latter, but the reality is... that could go either way. As for NNE ... it's possible this f's them out much fan-fair, too. Although, return flow upglide/Mountain forcing would probably do a number on the N slope country up there ...but that's almost a different beast altogether. The 12z NAM (thankfully the most reversible of all guidance... heh) actually does something similar to this... by blossoming the new over-running/b-leaf shield over western NS ... even sparing much of Maine. It's incredible... I admit, how proficiently this this is making all of our Meteorological insights correct, while finding ways to get it down without rewarding anyone. It's easier if you just laugh about it ...

heh, ...some of me wonders if all this was written on the wall when we tried to amplify anything at all over that warm levy of heights in the S/SE anyway... It's been dicey and low probability from the get-go so .. hopefully we were realistic about that. So yeah... get what we get I guess. Not much conciliatory offering by the operational suite for the extended, either. It's like... fascinating, but where ever there has been corrections, they have been specifically targeting any factors that could change the look of the landscape outside. ...Doing so at times, while not changing the complexion of the pattern in general. In other words, attacking snow. haha. Kidding but the thought arrives with a couple of impressive pinwheels on the EC by both the GFS and it's (supposedly) soon to be promoted paranormal versions, indicating white rain nor-easters entering the climo bell-curve of winter. Talk about trampling on the backs of the bruised... I wonder what EPS looked like over night. I wonder if we're still suffering hang-over and not entirely getting the new paradigm shift underway. Someone asked me the other day if we were seeing it (at last) all at once when we had that impressive cycle a couple days ago. I told them it was too soon to know. We needed more time to get a foundation of consistency - good thing I said that... holy shit!

This is entirely realistic assessment of the overnight guidance suite ... I mean, not that you're unrealistic just sayn' In fact, I was looking at this in a particularly nasty ironic perception of matters: we are going to get our second stronger wave to reinvigorate a band of action alright... it's gonna be rain! Wah wah waaaah The problem is... (or relates to, I suspect) is that the previous speculation and conjectures offered plausible neggie interference rippling out ahead of a stronger follow-up wave space. It should. That's how wave mechanics/interaction works. Anyway, failing to do so means no/less dampening out that lead S/W along with its concomitant WAA IB ... So the NWS personnel is entirely correct in their assessment (even for Maine but I suspect ultimately less of an issue for them) that the WAA does nothing but f-up the wintry profile. It "could" be an error point? Not sure... Thing is, the relay off the Pacific keeps pushing later in time.. The follow-up S/W was originally slated to come into the physical sounding array ~ 12z this morning... well, actually, start to nose in overnight last night. But no. Now that we are passing through that time it's since correct some 18 hours from now. Jesus...over the years, these flat flow amplitudes have always been a problem with guidance and this has gotta be incarnate of that. Get a load of the NAM's vorticity/wind at 500 mb for 21 hours on this 12z run... Compare it to the 06z at same position ...? Not sure how it pulls that off, but... it deepens the geopotential heights over Nebraska, albeit modestly ... still enough to compress the gaps between the isotachs. Yet, lowers the velocities on the attending wind barbs. That's like physically impossible! Sorry...that's side annoyance...

Okay ... so now two cycles of GFS trend slightly more amped on each on. Incremental... but the main relay onto land out west isn't actually beginning until overnight. I thought it was 00z but it looks like the earliest that begins to take place is 06 z and 12z tomorrow. This run shows how sensitive this is to very minor adjustments, as this run has a pretty clear 2-3" type band blossoming rt 2 within an IVT

Well.. in any case, the correction assumption from four or five days ago toward a more flat wave amplitude with less curved flow seems to have been the right call given all modeling at this time. If we recall ... back whence the Euro was attempting to quasi close along ~ Long Island ... To me in my mind this has always been about whether we could instead get a narrow open wave amplitude enough to late blow up and clip on exit ... Still in the game believe it or not.. The mechanics are coming into the blah blah out west more so on the 00z. Probably pointless to mention but will anyway...the NAM is slightly more amped ... I think if we can get the 534 dm isotach S of LI we'll have a better shot at things.