Typhoon Tip

Yup, you beat me too it by a couple of minutes Yeah, it could be that we are in process of relaying the block, since the NAO domain is the next physically favorable location, it just takes time to transmit from the north Pacific ... fascinating.

Interesting... the CPC's indicating the AO mean is going to stay negative with reasonably well-clustered members indicating such ( along the usual 'tidal' sloshing of the curve), and there "might" be an emerging -NAO. The latter is new. This is happening as the PNA is descending, which is actually somewhat positively correlated with the NAO ( meaning they show some tendency to move together ) looking that up on the correlation/table matrix of indices. Very tentative, but it may be that we are really just observing a relay of blocking tendencies at high latitudes...We lose the EPO but gain the NAO .. One thing that sticks out the ( this is the GEFs cluster ) is that the AO stays negative regardless ...

Yeah... again, as I was just telling Great Snow 1717 or whatever that user's handle is .. I don't have much of an opinion beyond the D10 .. just that those few days leading up, snow chances are fleeting.. Which, the focus there is so because, lets face it, that's the focus in here, not that I need to point that out - haha. oy Anyway, I'm still personally rattled a little that the polarward indices gave up/or are giving out like that ..I thought we had a shot this year, in fact in all honesty was leaning this way, for a fairly robust early winter onset. Back two weeks and change ago, we started seeing these -EPO tele's and operational hints and there it was... And, there we were and have been, but I wasn't seeing this side of it and am wondering where we go now. The thing is ...the idea of the -AO ( EPO/?NAO?) was footed in the notion that the we are descending toward negative, as is suggested by multi-decadal curve with monitoring of the polarward indices; the ENSO being neutral-ish, and also being buried ineffectually inside the expanded Hadley Cell as it appear to be, and is thus less capable of coupling/forcing ( similar to what happened last year/winter), ... it seems an easy logical conclusion that we are more prone from N/stream antics. I guess what it comes down to is, when our intents live by the AO, our intents suffer by it too.

Well... not prepared to comment on Mr. Cosgrove and/or time spans ... I have no idea or opinion about December. If anything, I'd hedge toward the -AO ( EPO/ ?NAO? ) to reassert - I just don't wanna go on record because I gotta say ... One fascinating aspect about the last ~ five years of observing the teleconnector --> reality and verification, is that the former is becoming less dependable as a predictive tool. The reason for that, I feel, is because although the mass conservation/physics won't/don't change regardless of era, what does change is that mass fields them selves, where larger global -scaled systemic eddy forcing is causing larger mass field modalities to changes quicker and more stochastic. Typical reliance ( or old school reliance ) is becoming less so. I've seen three to five day stints of solid coherent -AO in the CPC suddenly, quite unexpectedly vanish with increasing frequency ...etc.. It's really that specifically, how the multi-run/continuity aspect used to lend to confidence, is being rattled by CC ( most likely it's an aspect of climate change - ).

You may have access to products that I do not - in fact, if you still work for WSI ...that's likely true. That said, I was just referring to the EPS through D10, which across the continent/mid -latitudes is entirely comparable to the GEFS evolution between D's 6 to 10, and neither is very encouraging for cold maintenance at mid latitudes from what I am seeing. There's probably some room for interpretation differences, but admittedly ( this is my opinion ) we need the -EPO to be rather robust either way, or we suffer the same marginal to above threshold states.

We got this cold shot mid week and then perhaps another more glancing one toward week's end but after that? Eiee - One can really see the effects of shutting off the -EPO cold spigot across the mid latitudes of the continent. Despite the calendar going S .. the pattern wants to go N when that happens, and the 850s relax with less incursions and what cold there is, becomes marginal -1 to +1 C 850's in pockets - pretty much coast to coast S of the 50th parallel. November is climatologically not a big snow producing month. Best bet to have overcome whatever causes those climate numbers to be what they are, would have been this last ten days or so. Whatever we get out of this flat fropa with some ANA characteristics along with this "too late" wave, may be it for a while in terms of realistic chances. There's always "a chance" the pattern automagically reloads despite the current operational tenors and their associated teleconnection/ensemble means, but that's hoping at that point. Partial impetus here ... without the -EPO cold loading, it's hard either seasonally ( November), or in a warming CC scenario, to set the synoptic table with dependable cold at mid latitudes. I suspect beyond circa Friday the the probability curve for snow around the NE U.S. may drop to climo or even less for a while. I'm actually a bit surprised by this to be frank. I thought this was going to be a -AO ( EPO/ ?NAO?) late autumn/early winter, with less observed coupled ENSO influence... It seems the latter is true, but the former hiatus I wasn't expecting. So, we seem to heading into a nondescript look - interesting. Sort of an abandoned mid latitudes left to its own devices..

Hey does anyone have that URL for the weather underground/wunderground home stations ... ? I had a system crash and am using a back up, which unfortunately doesn't have any of those URLs - trying to search for it is next to impossible as everything guides you to some marketing exposure.

Man ..that's a nasty miserable look on the Euro for day's 7 thru 10 .. I mean we gotta park a high pressure N of us over eastern Ontario, with 850 mb temperature between +3 and +6 C in November That's definitely an alternate hobby-worthy look there. The thing is ... who knows if those details will work their way out like that layout, but it appears the cold washes out pretty quickly at the loss of the -EPO construct.

It's actually amazing outside if people let it... 52 here with near full sun is sensibly quite the balmy blast after 48 hours of nascent acclimation to dry uninspired cold. Almost makes me wish it'd just stay this way. I am starting - admittedly - to get into that middle age tendency to reflect in futility .. pretty much about everything in reality for that matter. But, sun rise ... sun sets, seasons in seasons out - it does all get a bit repetitive. Really the best word for it. The older we get and integrate memory engrams, the harder it is to challenge those experiences, those types of events whose standard deviation exceeds one's personal data set; they must also by definition get increasingly rarefied. Been there - done that.

The "wink" emoji's are condescending in most usages. It only adds to that "tone" when being winked out by someone whose interpretation isn't correct - As far as the other stuff, I don't actually claim to not be affected by the weather in an emotional or spiritual way. Never have. However, I do go on record as having better self-control in not allowing it to really "get to me" in the same way that is oft palpable in the regulars here - who clearly use this social media platform as a support group. Kidding a little there, but, nothing I said is untrue in the previous post. So, be that as it may... sometimes I do like to use the truth as a weapon - because it really just exposes the delusion that exists in the reader. The reader shouldn't be reading in, in that way in many cases as well.

Battles ...? I was just in the process of thumbs upping that post - haha... He nailed it. I never said once that I didn't get annoyed by the weather - I just believe I have a better self-control and use that in a devious way. Lol.

Maybe because there's nothing to figure out I'm just stating reality - I said, yay, cool to see 10 F in Novemeber. But, it's still missed opportunities for the storm enthusiasts, too.

If you're into the temperature depths as an empirical oddity sure... Otherwise, pointless cold - This is/has been a pointless stretch for storm enthusiasts ... by and large. Pretty remarkable that such a strong H.A. and corrective look failed .. .But, it sort of didn't fail too, because well, there is a precipitation event. Joke. There'll be some imby-driven dissent on that idea, of course... central NE and whatever, but while they gloat, they'll be blissfully unaware that everywhere got subjected to cold unutilized in greater proportion to whatever this pos doles out. Otherwise, yayyyy - we got our 10 F in November yet again. Pretty cool -

Could be a 32.5er down to the Pike once that ageo kicks in ...

Yeah I was just looking at that Scott. Subtle variance lean that way in the RGEM fwiw when comparing the 00z to 06z, and I'm leery anytime these higher resolution boundary layer models show that inverted ridging in the llv pressure pattern extending down from Maine like that. Not predicting a ice storm here, but despite the appeal of the Global runs, that's not mild air up to SE VT there. Both models have the leading boundary depicted S of CT/RI - as is classically illustrated by the curvature layout of the PP. Meanwhile there is any damming structure at all N of that? Sorry, but I'm a hard liner against warmth getting into the interior when you get east of the Berks/Whites and we have a topographic drain built right in - this has 925 mb burrier jet written all over it. And even if it is weak it's blocking the llvs from warmth entirely.

Thankfully ... the Euro won't now be 2 for 2 on event over-selling so far this season come Tuesday.... Interesting ...the model had to speed up the timing in addition to .. pretty much completely morphing it's synopsis. The GFS wasn't much better from this Novie 4 time range, but, it's depiction of a flatter system that was succumbing to progressive fast flow "conceptually" gets the nod in my book - even though it doesn't get a win per se. I think in terms of egregiousness the Euro's error is objectively larger. Unless of course this thing turns around in the next 30 hours of modeling and carves out a NESDIS bomb of 5 along the NE coast. Then sure .. the Euro wins

might have better luck with one of those in the parade of southern stream systems the 18z GFS lifts up the seaboard once this pointless cold pattern completes its waste of our time - ha.. But the flow relaxes and any one of those could be a blue bomb

This whole 10 day period of time is a lesson in too much of a good thing... Particularly packing all those cold heights on top of a still resistant S/height crest. That flow is sped up in between dry cold shots. I think I even mentioned this, tho in sarcasm, back then, that this could end up being a dry cold blustering uninspired result. We'll see what Tuesday at last delivers - best bet is obviously the Capital District of eastern NY up through central NE for now. Otherwise, another cold shot ... then - Hate to say, but the operational Euro's dismantling the -EPO construct out near D's 8-10 has support in the American tele's. It may be transient prior to reload ...I don't know, or even oversold in both, but as it stands right now, there is at least a pattern lull set to take place out there around 20th. The other aspect to keep in mind is the the EPO is almost as fickle as the NAO...with somewhat stochastic onset behavior, at other times ..models tending to 'lose' it only to rebuild the blocking regime up that way. So, vigil either way... I'll stand by my ideas though, that without the -EPO, we flop above normal because the rest state is threshold(ing) into an all or nothing type of alternation. Hybrid PHL already... Until I see a static average atmosphere that is average without it coming from a cold source in order to do so, I'm pretty confident that's the new deal.

The subtle slowing in the NAM I mentioned a while ago could really just be 'giga' perturbation and not really be indicative of trend. Just thought I'd clarify that. It could.. but the the only reason I brought it up was because it was endemic to the one model/interesting... 'Fact that I have not seen an 18z cycle from any other source that backs that noise, in fact... the opposite is more true, doesn't help the NAM's case. That said, the only thing the NAM may have going for it is that it's resolution in the boundary layer may have a better idea on where the front lies down. It's slightly south axis could certainly be atoned for seeing that resistance in the lower thickness intervals. But, perhaps comparing to other meso models might help there ?

This NAM solution is interesting in that it appears to be slowing the entire deep tropospheric synoptic evolution by some 6 hours ..but crucially enough to blossom that baroclinic leafing in NYS to central NE more prodigiously.. It's also causing subtly more deepening along and S of LI, which may be inducing a bit more ageo. flow/mixing into the Rt 2 region... with an bit more QPF flashing over to snow out there in time. But that level of detail aside, ( and it is the NAM of course! ), the overall complexion of that is bit more meaningful I would think than some of these immediate prior solutions.

I've been tussling with the hypothesis that a +PNA is not enough in and among itself.. I've noticed this tendency over the recent two decades ... getting more coherent with each passing cold season, where without the -EPO, you shut off and flip violently above normal. We've entered a one-or-the-other as a longer termed, multi-seasonal tendency. We seem to be entering, or are in, a new paradigm, ..most likely associated with the dreaded eye-roller climate change, where it's all or nothing. We have to have the ridge tapping the arctic air mass and delivering en masse/loading, or the expanded HC reasserts its self, and we have a rather extreme continental roll-out of cold replaced with above normals - that behavior, overall, is becoming more common place in cold seasons. That said ...we have been blessed at mid latitudes of the continent, in that the Pacific Basin bulge ( and this goes back to primitive climate model predictions from the late 1980s-'90s ) is unrelenting, do to the [ theorized ] SST anomalies that are relatively above normal, regardless of specific PDO state. That bulge is turning the flow NW in Canada, .. more frequencies of -EPOs to ironically cloak the fact that without said EPO ...you're flipping the other way. In other words, +PNA's with less arctic tapping are warmer patterns than they were 50 years ago. Sorry folks ..you gotta start modulating this shit into your ideas about your winter outlooks or they're meaningless, particularly when there are papers explaining the HC expansion and the empirically storm track repositioning and changes to the larger scale circulation eddies because of it. But I digress... In any case, you can see it on the D10 Euro. The EPO has [ perhaps only temporarily ] abated, and the entire domain S of ~ the 50th parallel across the continent, goes above normal at 850 mb pretty quickly, despite the western mid latitude +PNA attributing to +PNAP look. Later on in the cold season a +PNA alone would be more capable of substantively maintaining a cold source but ... this early, with limited snow pack/cryosphere over Canada, "home grown" cold air masses are a struggle. By the way .. I'm not sure I buy it the EPO is going away per the Euro's extended, just using that as an example of how mid latitudes have more trouble than decades ago with 'cold in the bank.' We got to more and more so be in a reloading constancy ...which also unfortunately means a higher compression/N/stram dominant pattern and velocity saturation ...introducing other headaches.

It’s happened before in November

You know ..the more I look at this thing for next Tuesday, it's a redux of the same shit we just went through - just a more amplified version of the same damn thing. Mm. Maybe we're just in a pattern ... things tend to repeat when in a pattern.

Up...there goes the futility record -

meh...