Typhoon Tip

Yeah... I don't know why the NAM 'oblongs' the low west to east like that ... "dumb-belling" as you say. You think that's real..? Thing is, the 00z Euro looked like it bumped E too so I'm wondering if we should be tossing that... Either way, the circulation is broad, so... NAM error or not, it may be large enough to get bands rotated into central and eastern areas even in an east position. Btw, I was just looking at the FOUS grid in ALB, and I think those T1 to T2 sounding profiles there probably are jammed into central Mass ...Worcester Hills and maybe western Middlesex. I don't think Logans is very good to use because that 05/04 wind direction at 30 kts is mostly likely contaminating the lower thickness with marine - Plus, the QPF clown maps really want to flip the NW arc to salmon as it is, and given to the notion that the lowest levels probably are even colder than even the higher resolution runs have it ( by a tick or two ) I think lends some to a freezing potential in the interior. we'll see I guess.

Back to the weather... ( sorry ) Now we got a sneaky kind of separate error ( maybe ) showing up. I noticed the Euro's detailed surface low track bumped E a bit on the 00z cycle. The 06z Good-For-Shit model also did that... Now, the 12z NAM also has it's surface low wobbling pretty far E of Cape Cod when passing our latitudes here in SNE. Meanwhile, it's pummeling eastern half with terminating CCB rains and [ probably ] IP/zr rain mixed inland. The problem with that is that we might actually be looking at a late correct east, over all, and since the NAM typically expands west Atlantic cyclone influence too far W/N, it's 12z QPF could very well be vastly overdone ... That's probably going to be true for this particular Not-Achieving-Model, anyway, and could be considered a separate matter. Or, it's all noise and the low will bump back west here.

Breakfast mushrooms for Tip ? WTF Lol - hahaha.... One should read that with a soup-con of tongue-in-cheek, cynical incredulity, btw It's more dark humor, which never conveys too well in writing. It's snark not intended to offend by the way... Scott get's what I mean. Not to be dishonest by implication, hey ...I engage in the time waste. I have written a novel, currently in pre-press at a publishing house ...contracted and the whole work. I have a slow era at my job these days, which is stable - I should be using this opportunity to start a new writing project, and continue. But I'm stuck in a complacency rut ( of sorts..) and don't have any ideas - other than taking pot-shots at cultural observation, that is... But, I spend far too much time involved in here - no question - when the better valor of my energies would probably find better virtue elsewhere. I mean ...no offence, really. There's nothing wrong with engaging in this sort of "vapidity" - sometimes we need a break and it's a good diversion, and all that. But, spending too much time ... in any social media platform, is a problem in society in general to be honest. But that's a separate subject matter for a different forum-ilk.

mm... That's not the good season, imho. The good season is when the season f'n gets good. This endless blathering of pointless minutia by psychotropically enslaved phone-zombies is emptied of value, and many pages of it is a special kind of hell - but hey, at least Apple and Android or wealthy, huh. But, that's just the way I feel about a dumb-down "Twit" ospheric ambit of a cultural, more and more so pedestrian'ed by morons unwittingly in wait for the lights to turn out before they realize that they've been stupefied to the brink of their very ability to survive in the absence of these devices. Seriously, the whole world is digital ... too digital to be safe or representative of any kind of foresight and provisional awareness of the future. Nothing's in print, certainly not ubiquitously enough. When the Carrington Event hits again ( and recent research has exposed that not only are they more frequent from our particular start than previously thought, our star is also capable of far greater storm magnitudes ), no one is going to be able to make potable water. 90 % of the population in these Western cultures, does not really know how to live off the land ( and that's the whole spectrum of provision resourcing, flora successfully with the Earth, supplemented by successful fauna ), nor has much of any clue what to do next - seeing as we are multi-generation buried inside the conveniences of this post Industrial Revolution bubble of fragile conveniences. F! we only think it's robust, because time creates a faux security, as though it is somehow more resilient than it really is. No washing machines... No dryers. No toasters. No refrigerators. No lights. Most likely ...no home heating for the majority. No phones. No satellite, nor all the subsequent codependencies societies of modern ilk have become completely and utterly reliant upon. No big medicine or pharma... Each one of those "No xxx" is a header for a spectrum of hells beneath them, too. Man, ... it strikes me in a nervy way as someone who thinks about this shit an awful lot, whenever someone connects the concepts of 'good' with that vapidity of all that really is NOT offered by these conceits of technology, and the assumptions and entitlements that come with it all.

Nah ... this thing is challenging one's patience in not believing there isn't some kind of unforeseeable agency at work, deliberately doing this shit just to f with people - We're headed for a 32.1er ...undoubtedly, after NWS' has committed to advisory ice. That way, the idea of this being a colder lowest level type of event verifies, all right ... right into meaninglessness. Then, we go into thirteen days of 0 interesting anything despite previous vagaries of the models hinting hope. Also, engineered deliberately to look like there were going to be chances. It's like said agent couldn't just stop at being douchebag with this nearer termed, big bag of wave interference waste of time synoptics.. It couldn't withstand the temptation to really rip sore butts by then summarily removing any events from the deeper vision too. Well, hell... at least I won't have to suffer the indignity of having it snow prodigiously 'just because' I'm leaving town over Thanksgiving. Kidding of course, but that was a particularly irritatingly boring overnight series of operational runs imho. Oy. Altho, the mean of the EPS seemed a little more encouraging I suppose. But as I didn't/don't see that product's polar-stereo graphic mean, so I'm not sure where it's setting up blocking nodes - if any. Just the free blend that TT offers up looked like a slightly amped PNAP for the conus... If so, that should average S/W frequency and at least cold air in reach. But other than that.. tough series of charts for storm/entertainment enthusiasts to click through. Yuck.

O, I C ... No I don't actually... what the in hell do all these abbreviations mean in that product's context? What's "PV" ... does that mean polar vortex. What in the f are "WEO" ... "IEA" and NPS... Oh, I see ... some of those are expanded in the subheading.. .But what is PV again?

Yeah Scott that was an interesting double December 96 and 97 back whence. The 97 Dec 23 event really sticks out for me, because I had sent off an email to Leonard - whom I was interning with at the time - warning him that the ETA profiles combined with the synoptics supported more white - one of those synoptic params was the clear sky the night before, which "capped" the cold when the dense cirrus came in at dawn... We were radiated down to 19 F, and that was prior to forecast for wet snow/rain, with zero llv WAA penetration - uh... no. Sorry. Tiny flakes so dense you couldn't breath and 6" in one hour, book ended with three hours of 2 to 3" per hour on either end, and we just got literally hammered to 16" in Acton in like 5 hours flat. I'd never seen that from anything synoptic... and didn't see anything like that until Dec 2005, when I got 7" out of one hour in that one. ... digress... But the Dec 23 1997 system was so anomalously off the charts - I don't know what to say // talking 1-3" of wet snow in Methuen and they ended up Jack potting 23" or something with two consecutive hours of 7" - and the snow was closer to powder, too. I just don't know how that scale and degree of bust is even possible, even by 1997 modeling standards that' buffoonery -

Well I can tell you that Novie 24 foot of blue is for real cuz I'm going out of town for the whole week... Prolly pack about three of those f'ers in there, while I'm tucked away abroad

Yeah... fwiw - the Euro's quasi zonal vibe doesn't really jive too well with the cross-guidance tele/ensemble mean. Not that the GEF's derivatives ever mean anything to the operational Euro... but, considering the EPS DOES jive with the GEFs tele's, that makes me linger over the idea that the Euro's just being a douche-bag

Man..the more I look at that, that's bizarre just based on my own experience, seeing the operational run be crucially flatter out west with the ridge comparing to it's ensemble mean. Usually it's the other way around .. huh

Does doesn't it ... I'll also add ( for how little it's worth ...) every GEFs member has some form or another of an eastern amplitude/coastal storm on the 12z cycle, D's 8-9-10. I find that interesting... The operational version just happens to be one of the farthest east and more blase solutions -

I don't think the Euro got that memo about the week of Thanksgiving - well...maybe it's not terrible at mid latitudes. But the flow seems kinda flat.

Boy ..I'll tell ya. It's too bad the NAM were not a more dependable guidance source beyond ... 10 minutes, because this is a truly nasty extrapolation for N-W of HFD-PVD-BOS: FOUS61 KWNO 151200 OUTPUT FROM NAM 12Z NOV 15 19 TTPTTR1R2R3 VVVLI PSDDFF HHT1T3T5 TTPTTR1R2R3 VVVLI PSDDFF HHT1T3T5 ALB//662825 -1116 222112 39009799 BTV//765418 06916 192011 31999595 06000574828 02117 202711 41049700 06000756225 03220 172313 34019688 12000804318 01924 232915 41019598 12002984611 04724 213213 30009386 18000592315 -5430 293617 37979190 18003641609 -7431 323311 24898484 24000531019 -1231 350212 37919291 24000641615 -6731 363206 28888884 30000391230 00229 350109 39969295 30000631829 -2430 363304 34928990 36000421236 -0127 340211 42959498 36000812340 -0427 370206 37919295 42000651151 00326 330308 42929600 42000811653 00324 341204 39909597 48000621749 -1124 300307 44929800 48000572449 00722 321205 41919799 54000402251 -0621 240705 46009801 54000492344 00922 261203 43999900 60000793254 02217 190609 49000003 60000462143 -0619 211206 47990003 BOS//603122 00616 232514 40020099 LGA//542423 00417 242707 44030200 06000432824 -1116 182317 44070201 06000462124 -0315 222409 48070402 12000543636 02916 202817 44059801 12000502635 00415 232911 49070103 18000693415 04226 253423 40009398 18000693630 -1017 253616 46029701 24000500817 -0730 313517 38939492 24000501225 -0529 300218 45979501 30000361124 -2329 323612 40999394 30000310935 -1329 310416 44009500 36000441639 00128 330213 43009498 36000401147 -0728 310416 46009400 42000621744 00226 310414 44999500 42000531857 -2022 280418 46999602 48000771943 -0924 290618 46009502 48000722457 -0321 250420 49999805 54000772364 00824 240720 47049703 54000796471 00308 190422 51020005 60000888565 -0416 180726 51050004 60011959566 -3005 130320 53020504 PHL//572239 00112 252906 46030302 IPT//772119 01115 262407 43980000 06000422134 -1513 232706 50070503 06000512118 -0415 232606 46030201 12000551435 00919 243111 50060404 12000753625 -2215 253415 46019900 18000762239 -0516 250116 49010003 18000863523 -0819 293613 44989300 24000723236 01121 290420 47009502 24000561026 00121 320213 43949501 30000331334 -1827 290519 47009603 30000281129 -1124 320509 43999400 36000421549 -0125 290418 48009604 36000321637 -1123 310410 44989402 42000583457 -3419 260420 49989705 42000331746 00921 290609 45969802 48000723765 -1714 220320 51990006 48000383052 -0419 260709 46969804 54000807667 -1204 160422 53000306 54000562942 -1516 190807 50010005 60025979262 -2005 110420 53011004 60000703240 02115 160509 51000005 Look at the lower left series of numbers... for Philadelphia. Down there, in the mid-Atlantic, and the lowest T1 temperature is 34 F with winds 20 kts out of the NE. That's translating up the coastal plain into SNE where it's probably 30 to 32 and ice. The other thing ... unrelated to that, is the surf? This thing is so so at mid levels, but the models are really maximizing the mechanics of the negative tilting and helping to core this sucker down pretty deep relative to those 500 mb typology. I mean into the 980s mb isn't too shabby, and with a big high retreating, we end up with an impressive gradient that is approaching from the S. That means it's long shore fetch and probably there are big swells associated. What's the tide chart like. I know there's a spring tide scheduled the week of T-giggedy... But that looks like splash over potential either way. Hey man, for storm enthusiasts, it's all we got, but it's got some potential to be a multi-facet moderate impact Nor'easter. We could end up with noodles mixed with zrain falling into 31.8 F interior surface layer. That'd be neat.

Not high on people's priority list, I'm sure, but man ... it's 51 here, and after a couple of days where mornings were near 15 and afternoons were in the low to mid 30s, this feels like one of those "fake" balm gems you get in March where people think it's 70! Nice out. Doesn't happen without appreciation from me ... even though there's homage given to the coastal early next week and how it even looks interestingly like an unusual ice potential. Someone was mentioning the ice storm of the 1920's in November a while back ...that was an unusual coastal storm set up too - hm. Wonder if there could be any similarity. I tell you, if that high pressure over eastern Ontario happens to slow a little bit, you get that much more BL resistance and cold loading in the llvs... heh

Nah... I was referencing a prior context - that statement you are responding to is not that context. The prior context did thematically portray Gaia as some sort of agent of intelligence that was strategizing the demise of Humanity - almost as a hand-throwing acquiescence to the notion that Humanity cannot be reasoned with, so blind extermination is the only recourse... Muah hahaha. Something along those lines was implicit - That would be fodder for science fiction/fantasy. But Gaia "self- regulating" - I'm not sure I agree with that either. I've heard other's sort of crutch on Gaia in principle, like it'll "protect" and "save" Earth from us... Mmm. No. It's not regulating shit when there's a mass-extinction already underway. I understand the modern definition contains that terminology, self-regulation, but that is being conflated with self-protecting. Even Gaia theory would have its break point... Think of it this way ( logically ): if the organic life that is supposed to be working WITH the inorganic Earth to produce a synergy-related positive feed-back that supports life, what does it mean if the life part of that formula ceases to exist? No Gaia, that's what - It's failing is what that is. And just like all the major mass-extinction events, regardless of whether they are causally related to geology, extra-terrestrial bombardment, or ... fascinatingly, the biology of the planet its self, these effectively wiped out their "Gaias" in lieu of new Gaias. As far as Gaia its self... upon deeper reflection ... I find it just as equatable to processes of ecological-balance. There are direct interdependent requirements of life within any given domain, and that domain then has indirect but still important dependencies upon adjacent ecology(s). Gaia really just a whimsical way of artfully describing the same thing in a poetic refrain of awe and wonder. But it's no different than ecology processes of various life components working unwittingly in support of one another.

Some of these fringe guidance types are trying now to shave 850 mb temps more, too ... now that the models have more unilaterally focused on the lead wave as we were discussing yesterday. At that time I was speculating that if the 2nd wave were to become the focus, that one appeared to have better chances for marginal/flip to parachutes... But it's interesting that the lead focus is starting to "maybe" inch downward in the profile - Not saying that means blue bomb in the interior, per se, but... that GGEM solution you reference does not unzip a pocket of -1 to 0 C at 850 mb pretty much collocated with the lower Greens/Whites and western Mass elevations as the low maxes by Cape Cod. Plus, these make-up-artist QPF products having the IP contamination on the NW edge... I'm not will consign this thing to just wet west of 495 and N of Kevin ... How much remains to be seen. I could see that continue to modulate fractions and end up more snow in there...Or, it gets windy and rainy and then as the wind gets light in latter innings ... there's this light slush flakes in the street lamps inconsequentially ... Welcome to the game of marginality -

Do you know of the source for this revelation ?

What responses are we seeing near thanks giving ?

I guess the only - present - modeled aspect ...barely worth mentioning, is that the Euro and GFS operational are a little unsure what to do - or how much may be apropos - with a N/stream diving dynamic "seam" wave out there D7 - 8.5-ish. ...Oh, seam just means that it's not really signaled by some modal index, mass-correction event lake the recent failed H.A. stuff. It's compact and not related to larger scaled synoptic unrest. The 00z GFS I'm sure others have seen. It's remarkable in a silent way, that the Euro was so similar to that from this far away. So much dynamic core punching as that thing quasi-bombs would wrap [ probably ] CCB down into central /eastern NE regions. More so in the GFS .. which in either case, this is no bearing or intention to forecast, just describing that period of time. The 06z GFS rendition taking the more northern route with that is actually probably a better fit for behavioral trend, to mention .. the global warm, HC pushed north shit, combined.

Yeah...heh, front loaded winter full of average highs and uninspired events. I've sensed a kind of tendency to verify closer to average, comparing original model assessments going back through the summer actually. Like we're doing the same thing .. in the early cold season now. Makes me wonder if it's all just over-modeling in general .. I mean, considering it's doing it regardless of season, normalizing outlooks is happening either way. But, things are trending to verify at less than the amplified sides, relative to their capabilities/what they could have given original appeals. Damping tendency, one might say it. Not sure what that's about.. But, this recent journey seems to fit in with that. About two or three weeks back, boy did we have a nice solid H.A. statistical/correction type layout, and it's been a adventure in how to get to the least plausible results relative to that signal ever since. Anyway, one of these 40s for highs with Darwin-honorable-mention-threw-the-pond-ice patterns, yeah might just fit in with that trend. One way or the other, fake news in the models verifies as blase reality.

https://phys.org/news/2019-11-arctic-ocean-ice-free-year.html

I’m not sure what point you’re trying to make… there are faster transitions in the data set? OK I don’t think this is slow considering we only have seven points left before it’s going negative. And there’s already been one month where it dropped 4 of that 14 - roughly 1/3rd the total ...all at once. If it does that again then you got even less argument / hence why I said “seem”. it’s a matter of magnitude I’m not arguing if that 2010 example is fast or slow that’s irrelevant. I said relative to this particular data range And just to reiterate the point… I’m wondering if these single digit positive numbers aren’t below some correlation threshold anyway. Just by the nature of it when you get closer to zero that means no skill which means it can go either way. 7 is not far so it could be a moot point anyway

Yes yes on the first of those two wave there ... god. I'm being impractically visionary for the storm enthusiasts is saying what needs to happen .. .it is better if that lead were to wash out entirely or enough so, that he following one "wouldn't" lose the baroclinic zone, and because it's hugely more powerful, it would be a monster storm. The previous stem wound GFS and Euro cycles were actually doing that... It just that since, the lead wave has come back into prominence - much to the chagrin of the storm enthusiasts. geesh

https://www.cnn.com/2019/11/14/europe/veneto-council-climate-change-floods-trnd-intl-scli/index.html

I think halving it's value just since May is quick relative to that range its self... I mean 14 to 7, with one month in there where it dropped from 14 to 10.. I don't know if that means it can't flop to +2 than -1 soon enough is all. I don't know how fast that is as typical behavior goes - no, but I said it "seems"