Typhoon Tip

We should have rules what can be called "event" and "threat" ...

By being any one of those numerous systems... Those are very weak pressures ... they could be flat waves with limited areal extent N ... Half of which in that picture are too far SE too -

There it is... that's how we know we are about to enter winter... the GFS pivotal page turn phantom world ender bomb... It does this in late October every year too... which signals real commitment to autumn... kidding of course... 968 would actually be nearing the cusp of Cat 3

OH well at 144 hours there's still plenty of time to .... .... oooh, who the f cares ....

The models really did well with this present ordeal coming down the last four days... I got the distinct idea that we'd see some sort of 'trowal' genesis up in Maine just from the cornucopia of guidance blend and on sat and rad that seems to be the case. That band's probably putting down some decent rates at the door-stops of the black bear dens.

heh... delayed AND denied

I'm saying that if the total hemisphere forcing was in favor of MJO 7/8/1/ and may as well through 2 in there... than the wave would behave differently moving around the diagram for one... But two, it would add to the hemisphere and the quadrature of the hemisphere that concerns N/A would amplify further do to that momentum input. I can't prove this outrightly from where I'm sitting... but knowing a thing or two about basic wave mechanics ... I'm willing to surmise with reasonable confidence that the opposite ...or some negative interference of some kind, has been taking place.

Well... perhaps the post I just made will help elucidate some of the "bad luck" causality... Which isn't really 'bad luck' angels on one's shoulders ...if we bother to learn and understand limitations. To paraphrase, the MJO gets too much emphasis as a pattern forcer. It's more an "enhancer" ...it can help or take away... But if the surrounding medium is "out of sync" with the wave's location in space and time ... then the pattern one sees in modeling and verification alike might not look very well correlated. But ur on the right track (bold)...

I just actually was looking at the MJO ... it's re-enforcing an impression that came to me yesterday. well, reminder is more like it. This is a text-book, jam-down-throat lesson in why the MJO is overrated. People ...from enthusiasts at the water coolers to the professional PHDimwits at NCEP need to get it through their f'n heads the difference between augmentation and drive. Seriously ... I'm watching the behavior of this curve as it's piercing it's way through the lead 8 of that WH diagram...and these lesser relaible models are so hesitant to push the wave forward, a few of them even move it backward along it's own course ..as though figuratively or symbolically bouncing off something - that's a negative interference incarnate. The fact that all of them...from the ECM to the UK and American clusters, are "unfurling" the curve as opposed to terminating it in free-space, is also indicative of wave resistance in the flow. This is all important because we should prooobably align expectations for help from that particular factor accordingly ... as in less so. You know...I really wish the we could see the computation for the WPO/NP/EPO...

Not sure what your impression basis is for making this assertion ... "cuts this crap" - please explain. Edit...what Jerry just said...

I guess forgetting entirely any phasing terminology... It s also possible that the N stream relaxes, and then the vestigial southern wave or its remnants swath some light snow in the area ... pretty sure I caught a few of y'all mentioning that yesterday. .. I'd stick with that on this guy and hope to be pleasantly surprised... Although, heh...at this rate shockingly would probably be more apropos, but you get my meaning. I just get the feeling that phase is very low ...I mean really low, probability. Which is exactly why it's going to happen and parlay the worst storm since the Chicxulub impact ... just to smite that correct advice.. But it's more than a mere feeling... This is a all a transitive proof... First, we need the ridge in Canada to "poke" higher in both laltitude and vertical depth to force the N stream on the good ole fashioned plunge trajectory - which other than that one prick tease series of runs a couple days back ...that's just not happening. That's not the transitive part though... The transitive reason is that the ridge handling in the west is < than 4 days out in the Euro...which can't see that happening? That's not likely given that particular model's wheel-house verification scores at < than 4 days... Such that depending on that handling at 4 days out... extrapolates a pretty confidence signal that we are not going to see the ridge correct... Such that if there is no correction there, we ain't phasin' here ... go for the residual southern wave light snow event. But as Will was intimating and I tend to ... (tentatively) agree... we "should" be heading into an era where those sort of corrections might be more likely. But, there's a separate thing going on where the operational Euro is continuously fight the whole MJO/+PNA ... I almost get the sensation I'm looking at a nebular result of the physics concurrently handling a plus-minus pattern. interesting... Hopefully it's just model-pattern-change antics.

Here ... I created some quick annotations to help elucidate what Will and I were just talking about 'what's going wrong with this'... I wanted to also include the 1978 evolution as a separate slide to show what that did right and this one (so far ...) is doing wrong (save for one run)

Boy ... a lot of focus on the wrong facets of reality going on with y'all... Instead .. try opening discussion about the super-synoptic/synoptic -scaled issues/limitation with the pattern handling by these tools, rather than clever ways of handling the psycho-babble disappointment. Let me explain something for the enthusiasts and/or any Meteorologists that get vested for that matter... It actually helps to seek and successfully explain why these events fail(succeed), analytically. Once you see the light ... know, and learn... why this happened this time but not that time... what went right, wrong, and leave the truly unknown to the rare fantastic, 98.6% of this stuff doesn't affect you any more, because you've disarmed that baggage with reason. ... except where it should: purely intellectually. As far as we're not getting snow? Too bad. Grow up... Wait our turn. Tough shit. seriously ..think of a trope and add it here. Anyway, the fantasy bombs of ... three days ago, by the GFS and GGEM were both doing something then, that they are not doing now. Within a run or two of those tasty looks ... subtle reduction in the areal extent and amplitude of the western ridge ...particularly it's flexing over the ~ 65 lat up nearing the NW Territories appears to be the culprit. Having the flow construct more sharply curved, and also higher in vertical depth, previously sent crucial S/W mechanics on a SSE diving trajectory shortly thereafter. In recent runs... that subtle ablation of that ridge extent is sending the S/W translation more ESE... effectively bi-passing and no phase. Even now, the southern stream S/W sits in the cafe thinking she's gonna show. But she's not. I like that... Poor Maud Miller: For all the saddest words of tongue or pen, there are none sadder than these, what might have been. Anyway, what went wrong: this appears to be a failure to properly assess the super-synoptic scales of the N-Pac arc and how it would transitively relay to synoptic wave spacing/amplitude forcing over western Canada. And it is a transitive thing... A wave "scrunched" or opened up somewhere west of the Aleutians is a small innocuous correction across some sensitive thresholds that can mean 15 deca-meters lopped off down wind over N Manatoba... ultimately a different destiny thereafter. What needs to go right: the opposite of that.

It does illustrate an important dual jet structure passing/getting ready to turn SE via the NW territories at the end of the run. Thing is is that nothings really changed in my mind anyway… Should the northern stream come back the southern stream is still providing a conduit for any impulse to dive into. Hence the subsume scenario is just not model to do that right now but it was two days ago

It's also closing off at the 552 depth which is unimpressive for that particular latitude/climo.

Almost seems like a brand new northern stream impulse getting ready to dive down; as tho we're only looking at the s/w ridge. The illusion of pushing out

heh... more than less suggesting worse already - ...i mean, at least with suppression you'd have something similar to a -AO and +PNA combination ..i.e., too much of a good thing ... but this? It's changed to rectal plaque - ...this doesn't correlate to anything, while simultaneously removing any passion for weather. There are few truly 0 unredeeming looks .. this is trying to figure one out. And doing so amid at Phased 8 MJO +PNA with a -AO ball sack is an unwanted tea-baggin'

This is like the Challenger Deep trying to find rock bottom... thinking they're crawling across the final floor of the abyss only to find another drop off -

It's just simply a piss poor correlation with a moderately strong Phase 8 backed +PNA ... by 10, there's no signal at all really - baffling. By D10 it's some kind of weird undulate look with equals ridge-trough wave structure across the 40th parallel, with limited or no coherent L/W typology for either length of semi-fixed structures normal to to the ides of January. This run looks poorly continuous of any "theme" other than chaos from the 00z run, which subsequently bore the same disarray comparing the run before that... This entire run isn't worth the letters types by anyone -

in all seriousness.. this run does a nice illustration of what Ray and I were just talking about - it's got the "place-holder" southern stream but the N/stream stood him up ... He's sitting there all waiting for her in his get up... hair all lubed up and ready to go... and the cold bitch doesn't show. Especially when she promised to do so through the GFS friend, too.

Holy shit ...what is the Euro smokin

The non bold portion I agree with ..absolutely. The bold part sounds like one of your patented imagination exerpts - buuut, I'm not saying any of that is untrue. Just that to be careful to filter that through analytical thinking/comparative to guidance before assuming that's the right interpretation. Just as a constructive critique, we should all strive to that sort of weighting internally before we expose our thinking to the outside world.

I follow ... I was sort of leaving the implicit option open there for the N/stream to show back up... I don't see any reason why it won't - it's just abandoned ... Whether that is "for now" or "for always" yeah, 5.5 days is plenty of time. duh -

I think the color toning toward yellow is probably the bigger take away too - one of the big ones anyway... It's the spread - ...showing the uncertainty is vectored - in this case ... - toward a semblance of greater impact. Thing is, that product strikes me as "place holders" for a bigger deal - ...boy, the real culprit, the more I look things over, is that abandonment of the N/stream ... Basically, ... a "Christiner"

There it is... the inevitable ensemble carpet surfacing phenomenon... scouring for that "nugorshard" That's what urban dictionary refers to for that accidental rock discard of crack that an addict scours the carpet hoping to find ... A kernel big enough to get 'em high during withdrawals. I say we indoctrinate that expression to mean the denial phase of a storm loss ... Example: " ... The community took a collective sigh of relief during the nugorshard phase of the modeling debacle when a new model threat appeared..." Only eeks... That is a god aweful GFS run after the 13th... I mean really - must NCEP parameterize the model to not storm? amazing