Typhoon Tip

Heh ...funny.. Yeah ...I haven't even looked yet but in the previous I surmised that the model was unlikely going to succeed in handling/timing critical features to phase more ... which is how/why the only way pretty much it can take a system west of NE - it would have to shift the entire mass-field vortex of the SPV over eastern Canada west. I've noticed this about that model over the years ... sometimes did does not do that and it scores reasonably well along with the other runs, but at other times it tries too hard phase.

As others have noted ... the American -based indices are modestly impressive moving forward over the next two weeks... Both a 'mop-ended' AO and well-correlated NAO curve have means less than 0 SD ..particularly heading into week two. One thing I'm less sure about is whether the AO is being handled better(worse) than typical performance of the ensemble mean (GEFs). It is not abundantly clear whether the SSW over the last three weeks truly propagated into the tropopause sigma levels... a total evolution that is crucial in the AO modulation/correlation. We could have a negative AO from multiple different forcing mechanisms ...and it is not abundantly clear either, how those varying sources may - if by indirection - be entangled. For example ... late phase 7 through phase 2 MJO waves are correlated with -AO. However, that -AO could be defaulting, because the mid latitude cyclogensis regions are enhancing in mode during said MJO phases ... which lends to enhancing the easterly Hadely trades along the 55th parallel around the hemisphere - that makes the AO negative... But it may not be the same negative as that associated with blocking at high latitudes (necessarily)... Which, the latter is drawn up in the SSW --> -AO total model. If there's a causal link between those two methods - admittedly, ...I may not be aware... but the papers I read seem to re-enforce either but not as an integration. QBO is variant relative to both ...so that's a little murky. Either way, AO may be a wild-card as to how deeply descended the SD goes... The NAO may merely be concomitant do to their overlap... but, others have noted the EPS is looking more and more west based -NAO like ... Again, separating which is pulling which lower is troubling. Meanwhile, I still have no idea what the Pacific arc looks like... It should look AA ... but, seeing as the march through phase 8 was a labored battle, regardless of model sourcing, that suggests for me that the WPO and NP/EPO arc were at those times, not favorable to +PNAP over N/A... Seeing some coherent tenor changes to ward more +PNAP however, perhaps backs us into an assumption that those are improving, as -WPO( - (NP/EPO) ) and the AA phase out there very highly correlates to +PNAP ... So a bit sloppy ...admittedly. Governmental appropriations/shut-down is limiting some... I don't pay for EPS products ... I don't know what that organization's specific index numbers were or are heading... Having said all that... we are in a new pattern. The establishment of quadrature PV into SPV's ... is instructive. We'll see if it pays dividens to winter enthusiasts... but already as we all know there is a steady diet of entities/time periods of interest looking out through D10.

Of all guidance from 00z ... operational GFS is best fit for all fields/modes/indicators blended... for now. I like the S/W passage nearer term ... Friday... I still believe that feature has a transitive ..if subtle, important impact/establishing lower tropospheric inhibition for later in the weekend. Otherwise, I see more N/stream partial attempts to phase among the Euro and GGEM... that I don't necessarily agree with. GGEM happens to idiosyncratically end up more NW but both are relying on a slight infusion of N/stream mechanics between 100 and 90W, which is what appears to account for that blend's left position nearing 80W .. The fast nature of the flow/compression, still endemic in all models/ensemble means therein and per trend ..., would not lend to correctly handling the delicate timing requirements for phasing - certainly then pussy-footing around with partial tea-spoons of sugar and cooking temperatures gets a bit pricey to believe the models will be correct with those intermingling aspects. If it comes in more full bore, than a fuller phase that is fast moving bomb might actually work for better for deterministic confidence but until I see that.. .Heh. Outside of some exceptionally well-handled stream interaction/crucial timing of entities from the Dateline all the way around the 40th band to Chicago, prior to any such interaction, requires a skill not yet met with any model including the superior Euro this far in advance. So meh... not overly impressed with this cycle across the board. Thing is...it's not a free pass for the GFS ...just because it "looks" like a better fit with surface features ... It too has a small amount of N/stream infusion going on out around 90W ...but because of the model's native ever so subtle progressivity bias (which is noted by NCEP publications) ... it lends to a pancaked solution that more happens to end up enough east. The bottom line is... I'd like to see the flow construct overall wend its way toward a more relaxed appeal/less compression ... before accepting cutesy phasing quanta for this time range when considering the fast flow regimes. Just balancing native model performance and/or in blend from D6+ ... doesn't lend confidence. Phasing is a delicate operation, and we don't typically see it take place in velocity saturated evolutions, much less... getting the models to be correct this far out makes the whole tapestry there a bit stressed to the intellect.

Looks like the defining difference between the 12z and 18z cycles among these American guidance' ...is the Friday S/W is subtly stronger in the mid-levels... with more backside NVA implied helping to build/extend polar high pressure arm down into NYS-MA/VT/NH ... That creates a better boundary layer resistance for the fast flow open wave to be forced S. Not sure it's right ... but that's what seems to be happening in these runs.

it's chapter 23 in my novel, catch-22 ... ' too big to succeed ' the gist being, even at 10 percent shitballs for brains, that still represents a sufficiently large mass that even if 90% corrective responsible practices take over... humanity still removes its self from planetary evolution by weight of the 10%'s detriment

only from complete nimrods -

Don't forget Friday's strong advisory snow event first - might want to focus on that ...

Anyway ... I'm off... Go Pats! I'm pretty sure folks don't wanna here that prediction - haha. Let's just leave it as, I'm hoping for a positive bust

Know what ... forget the icing... for now anyway. Yeah, a band 'ill be in there but... these narrow fast moving waves tend to compress (also) mix/transition zones ...making the plausibility for icing to be dominate storm profiles, less likely.

That is a truly bizarre evolution there between 150 and 160 hours... That's a Miller B relocation scoring from N to S, Usually, M-B systems rematerialize along a W-E axis due to BL resistance that is N-S... Weird..

Mm... my hunch? I'd suggest more of a needle thread icing event ... and whatever transpires, probably quicker than the lavishing 36 hour fantasy spread from some of those correctable 00z solutions. Just for now... definitely reserve the right to augment that impression from D6+

amazing... nothing down here... not even a snow bank with turbid turds

I think we've been discussing all that anyway

Oh...riight... Heh, I'm out of sleet practice hahaha. That's true though ... foggy sleet versus clear sleet - definitely have noticed a difference there.... You can even see it in the sleet particles themselves... come to think about it. Sleet balls look opaquer in that dust shroud fall, and I wonder if even they, themselves, have a slight puff factor - for lack of better word

It rings a bell ... Hey Brian what's ur snow pack up that way... ? how pervasive - is that "connected" continental with Canada... I'm curious because as Scott or maybe it was Will and I were mentioning, having a "fresh" high N should enhance the ageostrophy anyway but the old 'coming off a snow pack' argument (which I don't mean to explode ...) also adding... It's another thing ... the GFS' notion of a flatter wave may be correct but it could still be off with the low level frontal slope/wedging extending S ... adding to icing potential.

What's the standard ratio for sleet ... something like 4:1 or - you know ... "10:1" is snow ... Maybe 3:1 ... obviously stacking physics with ~ spheroids is more efficient then snow, but obviously... not as efficient as plain rain heh.. I'm just wondering ... 8" of sleet would be a flood warning rain event no problem, right - wow

... sort of... It's like Bob Feller standing up in the back of a pick-up truck that is driving 30 mph. He winds up and hurls a fast ball as hard as he can, in the direction the vehicle and he are driving.... Mind us, though radar technology was not accessible of that era of last Century, umpires with vast years of experience were quoted as saying that his fast balls "...Sounded like 105 mph". The used to call 'im "Rapid Robert," or "Bullet Bob" - although the latter applied to an Olympic runner and a pro wrestler, too. Anyway, he throws "105" mph ... but what speed is the ball actually traveling? We have to remember ... the ball starts out already moving 30 mph. Negating wind resistance for a moment, the ball moves at 135 mph. That's analogous to the stretching of the wave mechanics in a fast flow... the nose of S/W starts stretching down wind as it encounters the acceleration, because said acceleration adds ... The amount it adds is also inversely proportionate to the loss of S/W specific d(v) ... but anywho But ... the stretching in the longitude, does limit the latitude extent some ...

the gradient isn't a bad look/idea here ... The amounts? mm... obviously very negotiable at this range - ha! But, "narrowing" of transition axis would be consistent to some degree.

My father told me a story about something similar to this happening ...when he was boy, growing up in southern Michigan. Battle Creek - "cereal country" Anyway, it was circa 1948 I think he said ... but, a cold rain started accreting one late afternoon early in March. After nearly a half inch of glaze, the windows on the N side of the house begin rattling away with bee-bee ordinance and pounded close to 5" of sleet by dawn ... at which time it snowed on top hard through noon with five inches. He said the storm stuck out in his memory so well... because four days later, ...being that it was March in the midwest... the temperature sourced into 60s and all that dense sleet slab in the countryside melted all at once, and vividly he recalls something that looks analogous to a tidal bore came roaring down the Kalamazoo river. Him and his dad (me gran' pappy) stood on a bridge as it came rumbling underneath rife with a tumult in other winter debris. We surmise what happened was that there may have been some transient ice damming from all that sleet that sort of gave way and built up a flash flooding wave. But that would be neat to see...

No ..you got it. That's right ... but, the point I also wanted to make is that it favors ... that, and also yes - if one is located favorably - we've called that "threading the needle" in the past .. .which is tantamount to getting lucky really - than a band can rip. Also, it's a good point about the duration - the strung out variant storm can actually linger just because of their longitudinal spread occupying more space - more space to get through = longer duration. Will mentioned 1994 Feb earlier and that's a good example. It's also true that those sort of scenarios will tend to 'pulse' with nodes of enhancement associated with local vorticies running up along the front.

Love to say .... but the 00z and 06z GFS operational runs actually look like better blended fits when plotting the lower tropospheric evolution on top of native pattern limitations as described above... My guess? Just don't like it because it's a ...not as much snow, and more importantly b ... the snow is PA/Upstate NY and more NNE. That said, there's no reason why that solution in totality can't adjust SE (and it would be a very small adjustment Meteorologically) and still maintain it's overall complexions as a flat, QPF rich wave ... squeezed through a hostile velocity flow. But again again ...again, this is all predicated on the compression of the field being in place 144+ hours... If that proves relaxing, that could/would change things...

By the way ... those that have commented on the para 06z run... yeeeah, but, your snow goggles missed the near warning ice-storm in the interior before the "20-30" (imagine sarcastic irreverence) of snow... That would be taking NESDIS 4-like event and locally making it a little more interesting to put it nicely -

Ha ha ha ( golf clap ) ... Boy... didn't take long to wind y'all up, huh. You've gone from rocking, blood-shot eyed, straight-jacket padded cell apoplexy, to already visualizing in greed how this going to maximize.. on a temporal dime. I dunno, I just still don't like the compressed look to the flow everywhere - don't worry...there will be a time and place along the synoptic history of the Universe in which the compression won't be as concerning, at which point that auto-mantra will blow less hard than the Nor'easters the models keep trying to paint during said compression. Here's the rub... the compression is not an absolute mitigation. It's a reducing factor ... Here's how it works for the less than knowing: excessive wind velocity in the ambient geostrophic medium, absorbs embedded particular S/W mechanics by lowering their d(v) within the flow. With lower d(v), that (physically) requires less restoring jets ( you can look these up in the total cyclonic model) Weaker restoring = weaker resulting cylogenesis. d(v) = (wind velocity of the ambient - wind velocity maximum of S/W) ... (this is paraphrased mathematics describing the partial derivatives of Navior Stokes) It's alright ...even the watered down version is little pricey for some readers ... But that processing is not necessarily canceling out S/W mechanics either. It's just taking some away - that's the "take away" (puns always intended). I'm not opposed to an event through the time frame ... I brought it up myself, yesterday, that the previous trend probably should not apply to the time span in question. I just would reign in the maxing - and perhaps the more important impetus being ... strive for an objective approach early in the game to help mitigate the "let down" factor. Should this this end up being less... and definitely if the fast flow seems culpable, I'm going to drub this post back out of the past and bold this paragraph If not... it would be rare to have an open wave like the para GFS create that much output, by torquing a closing mid level closure around inside such a hurried medium. That should be dubious - just sayn', because the mechanical taxation/concepts above should be absorbing it's ability to do so. I guess ... if the wave comes off the Pacific in the upper tier power ... boy, it'd half to be really f'n powerful because the compression issue back east is a super-synoptic, planetary wave consideration ...and S/W don't typically tell those where to poop in the woods. Having said all that... modulate toward less compression? No problem... put eight scoops on a kiddie cone, I won't care as much...

I'm sure thousands have surmised similar to the following in their own imitable ways ... but, I've come to find those products to be vastly superior in art compared to their practicum in deterministic Meteorology... One thing I've noticed my self ... but don't believe I've mentioned, is that relative to all of them/sourcing, if I were to take whatever amounts indicated, and ~ halved them, that factor of 2 makes them more useful. Not in every case... as I just said, there's an element of relativity; one has to balance against in situ synoptics, along with local-studies ... In other words, an upslope/topographic boost 30" pounding on the eastern slopes of the NH Whites might show up as say 38" painted among that/those products. Though in error, that would still be in the 66 to 80 percentile, and thus acceptable and closer to useful. But, 27" on the coastal flats of Maryland? That stresses believability ... particularly relative to this particular blended synoptic evolution.

I agree - it would be useful ... Considering the FV3' slated to come on line (now) once the Government appropriations thing ends ... during these testing phases, absolutely it would be nice to familiarize one with sigma level tendencies (notice I didn't say "biases" - heh).