Typhoon Tip

Mercurial behavior is typical in neurosis

Yup ... block out the sun in time for summer

I swear ... no model can seemingly deliberately take such a golden pattern, replete with so many signal after signal, and find the least exciting solution imaginable relative to each one of those signals, ... with the stunning zeal and shimmering panache as the f'n GFS. My god. Four charts in I knew what it was selling so I just rolled the mouse wheel like my eyes right to the end of that banality. Sometimes I wonder, do the NCEP modelers actually put algorithms in the model to mute things from happening - like...on purpose. "Hey Frank - did you hit American forum for the -...right. Thought so. Okay, Dave. Hit it! I just spoke to Frank; it's time to head-f social media and fire of the other model version"

Heh, if that Thursday deal comes in more amped than this NAM solution it may just run right up the St L Seaway and no one wins... man. Looks like this run's headin' for a D.e.m. special though -

You guys want the JMA's 12z solution on both ... for SNE that is.. It's cold enough and potent enough on the first (Thurs) for 1-3 or even a spot 4/5", then, the weekend gig looks like a cold commital/M-b

yeah ...we gotta be careful with the causality circuitry and the MJO... Since it's a tropical forcing mechanism it's got a time requirement along with some indirection... It can be muted by an unfavorable, large scale destructive hemisphere, as much as it can be harmonious and then it really feeds-back and makes the correlation shimmer with obviousness. Either scenario effects a delay/time-lag requirement for a given phase, longer or never -vs- faster do to readiness. In this case, it seems the MJO is moving into the western hemisphere, at the same time the N-.Pac is trying to reorient into a circulation medium for constructive. We'll see if it holds.. But initially, the two aren't really in phase, so I'm inclined to think the phase 6 may not transmit much signal just yet. More so later next week. Actually, Phase 6 is a warm signal - duh... but still... the other conceptual shit's valid.

Didn't see your brilliant insights Yeah, I was on-board with that this morning too. As for me, I'm not saying that's happening... per say - though I'm hoping that's not bargaining. Ha. But just trending. Also, this wouldn't be the first time something like this has happened. Over the years ... how many times have we seen two systems on the charts and the first ends up dominant, or vice versa. Not sure if this is precisely one of those overall circumstances where that either can, or will take place.. .but, if Thursday's digs and bombs exiting NE coast, but still too fast and we miss out..., it runs up and clocks Hazey in the lower Maritimes, then, the weekend one ends up sore-butting here because of what you say? I wonder - would that be worth the Schadenfreude to see happen...

For the bundamentalists alone...that D12/13 Euro I bet would be interesting...

The Thursday system is trending in the guidance. The weekend one isn't. It's weakening... Since neither are relayed on board the "instinct" to count chickens in either case has been clucking, too. Either system could still become dominant in a flat flow high velocity canvas... Both could end up nothing. Just sayn' I agree that the extended looks better ... as far as extendes can. The HC is finally looking more seasonal, and with the R-wave repositioning going on... the relaxation of both is opening a potential era where meridian flow structures can dig unimpeded more readily. We see that feed-back right away in how we end up with that wondering west Atlantic weirdness out there - but though it is silly to argue any solution for D9/10... I do think that result on this Euro run is really more a reflection of changes rather than a real system. Though it wouldn't shock if over the next 2 to 3 days, we 'fill that in' so to speak.

I just sense a tendency to always be less than mid range drama, when nearer ranges in general bring said events into the nearer term. Interesting that the Thursday system, in both the GGEM and Euro, bomb-clocks the lower Maritimes...while the weekend one looks as though it's backing off.. Not sure what that means for us, but both the Euro and GGEM are more potent with Thur as it moves through New England - so ironically sort of opposite that tendency. These runs are a solid moderate snow and mix impactors for CNE at this point. Wouldn't take much adjustment to get some of that down to the Pike either... So far, the Euro's over amped is winning this debate on the Thurs thing.

Interesting ... It's really correcting at the r-wave scale in this GFS's run.. The flow is less pulled taut/stretched by ... maybe 5 longitude, so that "gives this more time" in a sense ..among other attributes and behaviors.

You guys are analyzing for the tastier looking run per post content ... like interpretive for why its better this and better that. I'm seeing these as model discontinuities - hopefully, that's baked into this, otherwise, heh - sometimes I wonder

Yeah...yup... that's my take, that this is probably reluctantly conceding that direction in all guidance ... stubbornly having to admit it and won't fully until it is 36 hours out LOL But I have other thoughts too... Like, stepping back ( oh god - here he goes... ) the flow is fast ( duh ) but, it's west to east and zonal in nature for the next five days. After which, that and then is where and when the flow starts to "buckle" ... That circumstance of change is very important for two principles in determinism ( which I'm not mansplaining here - you know this ...just sayn'): The first is, the Thursday wave that "should" bring a swipe of fast moving light/moderate snow and mix on the southern edge across CNE, won't even come over the denser sounding domain over western N/A until 12z initializations, tomorrow. It prooobly won't mean a whole helluva lot? But, it only takes subtle potency wrt that mechanical wave space where subtle quotients could mean for a better burst of wintry weather with that..or a south, or a north track...etc. The second is, that's an intrinsic pattern change. And it is one whose scaffolding is pretty heavily advertise to be heading into a PNA paradigm shift that supports more western ridging. Pattern changes as we know are not usually the best time spans for model verification scores ..to put it nicely. But, in this case, the HC and SE ridging/R-wave fiasco that's pretty much dictated our sadness over the last several weeks, is breaking down sort of in tandem with that weekend gigs arrival. We really need the SE not to dawdle in doing so...because, if that ends up being prematurely eroded and/or worse yet, red-herring eroded, all bets are off on how the forcing offsets that wave's interactivity with the surrounding medium east of ~ 100 W. So, there is uncertainty fruit free for picking in the tree of determinism for this week in my estimation. But to your original point... if none of that matters heading into the weekend, only where we are as of right now in the runs? Yeah,...that's not getting out of Miller B result alive. Not chance...too much BL forcing and cold in the lower troposphere, with a 120 kt v-max wind core tunneling S of LI ? f-off man... that's going to bomb.. You'd iron out details but that facet is happening sorry. Probably for Nick - ha There after, there is still now in the GEFs/oper. GFS and Euro cluster, a coherent appeal of HC deflation - being funny...but with heights more natively receding SE of Hawaii around the girdle of S-tropics, together with Phase 7-8-1-2 MJO ..that's still a constructive wave interference that may also lead a -AO response given time and doing so with less compression in the flow over all, allows for less "de"structive individual S/W mechanics.

The thing is that things got unworldly jet max blasting by West is just under our latitude over 120 kn in mid levels… Frontogenics would be off the charts and probably be getting mesoscale QPF clusters that would actually make those totals at local baands. The GFSQPF chart is probably not going to pick any of that up. Thus it’s probably right for the wrong reason at a few points Obviously that’s predicate on the assumption that run’s right otherwise but we don’t even know that

Hey man ... I've said before, I'll say it again... First it gets warm, then it get cold: boom

After a couple days around 70 down this way... ? hope

Half those numbers yup... Still 12 to 16" happening in - probably 8 to 10 hrs ... But Like I was I saying to ... Steve I think it was, I don't think the QPF charts are altogether useful... For more than the usual D6/7 lead, but because that structure/evolution synoptically supports deplorably pornographic for meso potential. Ironically ... a few of those numbers could get 2/3 to 3/4 realized by accident -

Has that 7" in an hr band somewhere look to it, doesn't it.. Sorry, with that incredible power that's probably ceiling Terran physics in having a solid 3 deg of latitude thick tube of wind over 120 kts going W- E from Pit to SE of CC like that... someone is getting strobe lightning too - kidding of course... but with that level of excessive wind solution, the frontogenics probably maxed absolutely there, with trop. folding UVM cores... and necessrily, those QPF charts may as well be douche because they're not going to pick up 0 mi vis, snow rating over 7/hr. And what's amazing...this is a weaker solution by 5 to 10 kts over 12z

Regardless... that suckers over 120 kts at 500 mb in the jet core, and it's not just a flag or two - the whole exit to entrance tube is wind tunneling...

18z 's begun the slow process of abrading next weekend's S/W mechanics by way of velocity saturation now too... christ still has the wave space but details are exposing some theft there

Yeah...more likely than not, and intuitively fitting ... the return rate increased frequency of spike events - as you implied - is causally in the same footing. It's just a fact of life and the Earth now... and going forward. Folks need to get with the program. This shit's going to get more, not less, common if if if if if the current hockey stick climate shit continues to stink up the works. If something happens to offset... sure, that discussion takes place. But right now? There seem to be two factors with no compensators: sun, GW ... By the way, a volcano erupts near the Equator... good start.

The impetus there was "...My hypothesis .." The Hadley Cell stuff, ..yeah, that is bigger than me and my speculations: it is heavily scienced(ing) and on-going, and papered, and is unilaterally in the current zeitgeist of research - which is just not as privy at the level/station of social media, no. I have a link on my work PC that connects to a plethora on the subject matter. But, it's just something I have noticed wrt to our climate... personally. It seems more and more as the years go by, our base-line isn't as dependable; in the absence EPO loading... Put it this way, we used to be more latitude reliant ...we didn't have to worry as much about mass-cold because we were blessed by Earth's geometry. Heh. That seems to be getting harder to do.

I'm interested in how this thing does in that model. There's some growing sort of ...aversion to the Euro call it ( heh ), and this scenario has sort of put it on a stage with lime light - with no peers to support it ( other than the NAVGEM ...uh...), it's making a spectacle out of that test.

It's just feeding my hypothesis that we've already crossed(ing) a climate threshold ...just not one very well identified, because climate is still a learning curve everywhere and all dimensions, anyway. But, it seems as years go by, we either have to have a -EPO preceding or in the temporal neighborhood, are we're too warm for Currier&Ives... like, period. Today is obviously a different thing altogether and I've spent time explaining it to a empty room already, so wont' bother. But... it's like it's getting increasingly more suspiciously coherent ( call it ..) that unless we're directly dumping cold into the 40th parallel, we're flopping over too warm for snow more readily/regularly.

It's almost too much to expect the temperature will correct down to normalcy once the departure is this deep and lengthy... This warmth is no spike... It's two days of it... with a blue flame night in between. That's more than southerly gale WCB type of arrangement. Anyway, the system on Thursday is still present on the Euro but it's too warm. This isn't a cool week. We're struggling with a statically locked 42 N, 850 mb 0C isotherm the whole way.