Typhoon Tip

Anyway neither one of these models was phasing like the euro did it 0Z and 12 Z If the Euros gonna be right these solutions you're seeing tonight are going to be totally different ... so far

Problem with the icon is it doesn't have any of those fancy color coding for a mixed ptypes; either rain or snow but that entire area of Southern New England is sleet and freezing rain absolutely roaring

Neither one of those models are showing anything similar to what the Euro was doing FYI

Oy the NAM

GFS can't stop there ... After a vicious backside cold gong it goes ahead and rolls out the air mass just in time (phew that was close) ...sparing any snow on the next system. That oughta get the locals in cozy brotherly lovin' feelin'

Yeah..... I'm not going with the GFS is a terrible model meme - no way... Not when this thing isn't even sampled in the physical sounding grid..... I mean I get where y'all's comin' from but ... it could still be right - even if we doubt it. You now, if a GFS low attempts ... a compromised occluded/triple point run out underneath and damaging ice after a half foot wallop would atone for that cold BL/backed by high pressure just fine... I mean, there's little imagination being supplied to compromises so... I'd hold off the ridicule...

Our storm is raising blizzard warnings in the Sierras ... and wind warnings to a lot of lower elevations to the west. Almost El Nino looking ...almost... But, often times bigger events start leaving calling cards in the west ... the old, "this system has a history of ..." Just a reflection of being very dynamic /powerful mechanically...

The Canadians should just say f-it Kevin, ... you're now in charge of parameterizing and tweaking Navier Stokes -

Know what's gonna be a fun solution is when this gets into the RGEM's bee-house... ho man..

heh... engaging in some schadenfreude are we ?

That solution almost looks too fast .. but.. been concerned about a pancaked system all along so we'll see -

Let's predict which user melts first when the 18z GFS pumps out a veiny high hard-one through Albany again ... j/k but ... maybe not -

That'll be the the ice storm

Perhaps targeting the straw-man ... I don't think anyone should be surprised... That's the one contention in this that's been the most glaring and confident; one should be leaning toward colder/BL forcing -

You gotta be f'n kidding me ...

just in case ... I was only reflecting the WH product - I don't personally rely on the MJO much for reasons i've hammered ad nauseam and won't again - .. it helps and hurts but doesn't stop or start.. . blah blah... I really thought it was funny how folks were like, " ...the MJO is not going to amplify in 5" ... whatever-for it may mean for the world this time, it's doing just that.

hahaha ... hoh man... GGEM ... snows almost as prodigiously at 200 hours.

Yeah... but it's doing it here... just a different detailed avenue in how it gets it down.. But clearly at 96 hours the N/stream is crashing the party over Michigan which ... heh, hate to f'n say - that's usual where/when subsuming tends to show up at the party for these... It's like a high velocity 1978 thing... weird -

The Euro run really is the best of all probabilities... The southern stream is allowed to propagate along uncompressed .. or not attenuating from that particular mitigating factor as much .. . it's almost like the flow just cleaved open temporarily just enough to make room for it. eerie Then, right as it is nearing 80 W the N stream suddenly jabs into the backside and the full bird dose of roids into this sucker is on. Right as it is moving passed LI...too. I tell you what, this could be an underdone surface pressure response ... if that's really all going to take place that way. I cannot help but remain skeptical of that degree of stream interaction accuracy amid high velocity flows ... I think it would be foolish to count on that ... even though I keep getting flogged over the head with that idea by ever third or so model cycle.

There's actually a damaging CAA gust potential in this Euro run.. It's also phased the N/stream again at a high rate of speed - uncommon and difficult to believe at this time lead/range, the meticulous nature of that requirement being handled so well ... but wonders never cease. Frankly ... I'm growing tired of having to post this sentiment and then watching the models summarily doing it even MORE annoyingly so... But anyway, this is almost a full-bird phase ...and when that happens, it's moving out - at which time there is bit of a fold potential there perhaps...

Yeah... I dunno... I was pretty hard on that facet a couple hours ago myself... and while I stand by my reasoning as both objective and scientific, I also did stipulate that relative to all scales and dimensions...anomalies do occur from time to time now may be one of those times, huh - But, sufficed it is to say, open flat waves pressing through a compressed field tend to mitigate big numbers, no go bigger - fascinating...

MJO ends winter again .. .heh.. I remember heavy-handed post content lobbied at anyone that dare suggest the wave may re-mature in Phase 5 ... Meanwhile, the AO is slowly backing off it's plumbed depths at CPC... inches... Boy, I tell you... this late autumn into winter may be fantastically lucky it's snow at all up to this point. I've never seen a planet so hell bent on fighting it's it's own season - haha

Seeing as others are mentioning the ICON .... this 12z run demonstrates a noticeable less N/stream interaction around a 100 hours out compared to priors ...

yeah heh...we laugh but... I was just noticing the NAM did speed up the entire system positioning in the flow by several longitude degrees between just the 06z and this 12z runs ... Again, I think we need to get this thing off the Pac and well physically sounded.. If the southern stream is powerful enough to overcome the compression signal ...which concomitantly trying to flatten this into the W-E within the fluid medium/propagation ... then the concerns go back the other direction.

but keep in mind... if compression starts turning the trough rotation more positive, that will cut QPF realization - it's just one of a myriad of possibilities still out there - Plus, I've seen these open wavy ludicrous flow systems tend to move in and out quicker than modeled, so in-storm correction/now-cast may prove that as QPF total limitation to some degree as well...