Typhoon Tip

Funny tho - ... while the 'startling epiphany' not to trust the models and invest emotionally into a storm that is on D9 charts is certainly wise, take a look at the mid range 120 hour operational GFS panel off this 12z, and compare it to the 324 hour panel ... That's virtually an identical synoptic circumstance comparing those snap shots. So, despite the sage-like advice, it's only counts when there is a storm on the charts in the D9 range... Because you know balls to wallz your getting screwed at 120 AND 324 hours when that's being depicted that way!

Fwiw and future reference... The tea-leafs on that were in the stalwart WPO's positive ... That' index tends to relay into the EPO rather effectively, such that unless that positive/negative coupled in the first panel was preceded by the WPO's falling index - which it was not in this case - be leery of any negative EPO. This time that tendency put up the faux omen, but has many times in the past as well. If the WPO descends first or in tandem, that's a better indicator for an EPO crash.

FOUS grid has big numbers at LGA and Logan ...too. Over an inch at LGA in a zr bomb ...but nearly an inch at Logan with one interval of a tall sleet column.

Worst than this impact implication? ...This was posted by someone, and it "precipitated" ( puns are free at this store ...) the consideration that he GFS was more consistently aggressive at the time. It may be a matter of opinion, but the Euro got more aggressive than the GFS had to step down. The percentage of correction on this particular interval doesn't appear in the Euro's favor. I dunno -

Agree with this much ... In fact, hard pressed [ most likely ... ] finding scenario where the GFS' lowest 200 mb of troposphere are handled very well because it's just apparent ...they've got a problem with the thermodynamics in the planetary boundary layer when it comes to that model. Re the other...you have a run there that makes the appeal of the Euro better - and is, in situ... But, three days ago, the GFS went through 7 or so cycles that were stolid consistent, and more akin to present consensus; when the Euro was paltry for total impact with consistency troubles during that same span. I have a very clear recollection of these, and there is a post I made back then in direct homage to that, which went unsung or really acknowledged..Now, on the eve of this thing, the Euro gets credit - k'

Heh...I don't know about that Will. My "perspective" went from no impact or minimal by the Euro, to something much more... GFS may have had a bias or two, but the percentage correction indicts the Euro on this one. sorry - will agree to disagree with anyone on this. The Euro was worse.

a few lucid members mentioned this at other times over the last five days... more than a half the members, didn't seem to acknowledge typical with popularity schemes and crowd mechanics -

lol ...when in boring holiday meeting at work ... i don't wanna talk about that in this thread, either -

Yeah..right, secondary effect ... I mean the falling particle mass - 'how much is frozen' Impact prevent total... it has to. I'd love to read the paper your refer

I think it is interesting that originally way last week we were speculating this was an icier potential and pattern for those, then, ...here we are. This appears poised to be the main concern with this. Despite any model selling since..

It can be more extreme ... I mean we all know this that are weather dorks, but in the Plains you can get some rather uniquely physically stressing soundings, with 19 F within 2,000 foot of the ground, and 44 F melting above the BL, where there is yet overrunning convective elements in the sub-mid levels producing lightning and thunder fall rates. It does happen ...rarely. I've not seen it first hand, but have seen live video of orange flash, thunder boom, and raining hard enough that the air appeared foggy at relatively short distances with a temperature of 19 F. Heavy or not, you're efficient - just a matter of whether that efficiency and rate of phase change competes with fall rate... Obviously, it's never 1::1 - it can't be... hydrometeoroids splash on contact too..

Speaking of making a call and not mentioning ... The NAM's tripling Logan's QPF in the FOUS grid comparing the 06z is classic behavior in short terms whenever you see PHL/LGA on that product with bigger numbers. Not always... I'm sure the famed PD storms of last century that move bombs due east of the mid Atlantic, and cirrus milked the Boston skies didn't do that, no. But, balancing in the synoptic evolution ..prior -6z run did not make sense having PHL/LGA be nearly an inch of QPF while Logan was paltry, because the trajectory of the former was an ascent in latitude. Whenever I see that, I count on the 24 hour lead to go robust - ..here we are, boom. .75 in snow with IP contam

I was up at UML in 1990s. We had forecast games - and folks cared! There was a national one, and many university students and faculty engaged in it. I'm not sure how it was maintained and networked. It was yet quite early in the Internet era but ... I think it was still done via nonetheless. The local in-Lab game was fun and probably even a bit too stressful for our own goods, considering the curriculum of more science-based Met programs and all those rigorous course works. Lord knows, that was enough (thank god for grading exams on bell-curves!). Still...the diversion had it's need. Do you know that our Senior year required deriving the Navier-Stokes equation, long hand, before allowing our escape with a degree? Start with a baser thermodynamic and a baser fluid mechanics equation, and by the time they are fully integrated... one line becomes almost 7 pages long. Which is why I formulated a mortgage-paying career in software engineering, and only hobby weather, instead ...And also science-fiction writing, ...etc. But point being, I realized along the way that actually working under a heading of Meteorologist is just a label. You still 'know' how it works, and know how to forecast for having your experiences... Labels don't change who you are - the rest is just a form of immaturity and requiring the adulation of others ... if not some petty celebrity for a moment. Once one really connects with what all that means ...they can read the charts, figure for a bomb in 18 days, nail it... and no one ever knows they made that insight, because they didn't care to mention it. Their truth gone forever. And they could not be more okay with that, as there really is no loss in the first place. 'Sides... life really doesn't matter - oh, there are certainly things that matter to you, of course. Once you get to middle age, an awareness gets harder to deny. Accolades seem to fade beneath the universal shadow cast by the reality: everything in reality is merely a human construct - including one's opus'. All value systems and perceptions of self, or ego... even art, all of it. Meaningless. These are aspects that disappear...vanquished when the last point of light fades from awareness and the "soul" ( only for lack of better word) disperses to oblivion at the end. Not trying to be depressing here... "really" more like 'releasing' ... peace. Once one really and truly connects with how meaningless they are, it's very liberating - it's like being in a walking talking DMT zone. Not to be confused with caring for your wife, or your kids, your siblings and best friends... giving a shit about community, and not wanting wars. Because...that'd be weird of course. We can appreciate splendor. It's knowing that you are traversing a tapestry of reality - which is just another form of art.

Mm... but saying there's only 45 days of winter remaining on December 15 or 16 of any given year is so egregiously asinine it immediately molts all credibility of the person that makes the statement/sentiment. Personally, I don't care about the troll tactic - I don't actually take very much of who said what and why in here very seriously, and tend to ignore most of it because of it's intrinsically vapidity, and transparent cackling of the hoi polloi. However, it looks odd for you personally, Wiz', to defend that person - at all - when you're posts are nut-to-butt right up against one another. Just sayn' ... now you must know how defenders of Trump must feel. That sort of 'embarrassing timing' has been a regular folly of his Presidential tragic comedy.

Reputations die hard

09 and 2010? two years in row neared 40 in interior SNE somewhere around them

suppose the GFS is more right about the general synoptic evolution here... could it just be too jacked with QPF?

Did anyone else notice the Euro's weird little fella out there in that D7/8 coastal cyclone ? ...Like a convective feedback micro-cane

Nah...that's complete continuity -related bullshit on that GFS obviously... but go for it !

Lol, I know ... baffling to the scientific community why that is, as the variables in the geo-physical equations that govern all events and outcomes of the atmosphere remain utterly elusive -

Kidding aside... I'm only joking like that because I have noticed a tendency to be "dealt reverses" ...almost like with uncanny timing in doing so too... weird. Just when consensi is achieve - up ending has not exactly been at a premium... a verification phenomenon that has been more common spanning really a year at this point. Not sure if its an interpretation thing, or the models really demonstrating enhanced variability... probably some of both. I remember the year after 1995-1996, expectations for modeling performance was culturally threw the roof. That winter the models were routinely nailing ... D10 storms with aplomb and polish. I mean it was ridiculous ... Then, after the thaw, the pattern reloads and the models were even better... That's never happened since. Years passing ...never a season with such success. Some very good, sure. Maybe the last 18 months is just not a good time for tech - I've seen more teleconnector modality breakdowns than normal too. Interesting.

Or wouldn't it be funny if the Euro held serve... was tossed, but nailed it ... such that everything else turns out wrong. Muah hahahaha It'd be like, "Perfect! my plan to yo-yo hopes and dreams only to cause people pain and anguish while only thinking they are getting to their hopes and dreams, is complete"

LOL tru

Than that means the Euro was wrong ...if it does... and, wrong inside of day-4, too. Don't forget that ... oh, y'all will, and recede back to NAM and GFS popularity bashing LOL Anyway, Lord of The Flies model evaluation kidding aside ... it is interesting if these blended NAM/GFS are closer to verifying than any Euro inside of day 4.