Typhoon Tip

Btw...did anyone else notice this? Tomorrow could be interesting in a nerdy way, between 2 and 8 pm. Both the Euro and NAM show a very deep dry slot between 850 and 500+ MB levels opening and typically when veering the winds from SSE to SW like that ( both guidance), the cloud products will over cake. So partial clearly sweeping across the area, and with LI's regionally in the -2 to +2 range. We are in May keep in mind ...and 2 to 5 pm sun may just add a touch of instability. The air could be 62/57 like with whisky towers ... strange look there a bit. Not summer or nothing but homage-like.

You can see the fight though ... I still maintain that the 850 mb thermal layout relaxed the cold complexion quite a bit terminating 2 or 3 days back when that last meandering cool event finally gobbled up the unusual chill plume lingering south of 40 N and whirled/terminated it out into the Maritimes. What we are left with ( unfortunately .. do to other timings) is a milder troposphere unrealized at the surface - but it is a warmer total depth. It is psychologically too easy to chastise and tenor dour when we are on the N side of an impossibly slow moving warm front today, stuck in the mid 40s and raining. But Saturday ( if you believe this NAM solution, and I do, because it matches the Euro reasonably well from 00z ) will show that warmer potential... Dawn-ish the skies are clear and mid morning d-slope dandy flow is established under 850 mbs of +2 to +3 C ... mid day being lazed by a May sun angle. 12z NAM MOS puts up 64 at KFIT but I gotta think if that synopsis plays out they should bust by four ...say 68 F. KASH ..etc... over achievers over decks, patios, front-yards and driveways - and probably 73 too if the wind were to drop off. Either way, it's not the same troposphere as last week. Sunday clouds contamination otherwise probably warmer. First time we have a shot at stringing two days of that sort of feel ... Just an op-ed perspective: My own expectations for April's are set pretty low to begin with. "...Is the cruelest month" .. for a reason It is, per my own experience, exceedingly rare to string decent days together during this cursed annual journey through seasonal lag that defines the NE climate. The seasonal lag stuff is actually being augmented further by CC too, for complex balancing reasons which we won't get into.. But, sufficed it is to say if however counter-intuitive, this present era "stage" of the warming world atmosphere means super-synoptic scaled 'tucking' over eastern north america ... and that means we have a built in butt-bone for warm enthusiasts from March 20 to June 10 every year. Doesn't mean - as usual - conditions will always suck,... but it does mean a relentless diet of Kevin installation futility posts during that time.. heh. It's like 'white men can't jump'? They can, they just have to work extra hard to do it - that's our spring. We can get balmy but it's harder. We have a long way to go before this miserable spring gets anywhere close to the rectal plaque that was May of 2005 - not even in the same apoplectic universe as that. Lastly, these cold regimed extended frames have been routinely modulated milder heading into the mid terms so I'm less impressed with digging up ensemble cold members and pretending it makes the -(SAD) 10% really unhappy to see that. ha!

No ...that Boston number has it's value - but one has to be a meteorologist to understand why ..so - It was 62 setting out on that 25 mi ride; hit the breeze boundary and finished in 48 F and it was brutal !! We're 30 miles inland as the crow flies. I knew there was risk of that dense cold marine boundary layer rollin in but the gamble didn't pay off - and it wasn't a very good ride because of it. To cold for the gear I was in -

Yeah that event was horribly handled by the GFS of the time. There's been a upgrade since ... Recall, it was trying to flag 111 F, 2-meter temperature(s) at Bedford Mass ...run after run, but with DPs of just 60 F... So, 111/60 ... Pheonix in Boston? No problem - That version of the GFS of that time was a particularly egregious embarrassment by NOAA... It almost seemed more than figuratively as though they just f'ed up and left out the lower level thermodynamic equations when they modular snapped that puppy together - and of course ... buried the fact that they did by ignoring the issue and not drawing attention to the mistake or some diversion of strategy..haha. But in the lower 100 to 200 mbs of the troposphere - quite plausibly related to it's bad theta-e management/physics. It also had that nor'easter earlier that March ...remember that? 2" to 3" of 6-hourly QPF with a DP spread of 8 F ( 39/31). That lent many to think it was missing a blue bomb potential if correcting toward wet-bulb. So, there was bated hope ... oops. What happens? OH, we wet bulbed ... to 35/34 with 2" to 3" of rain -- wah wah wahhhh... Oh if one were nerdy enough to look cat paws. That's part of the 'emergent butt-bang' mystique, too. I mean, the model is wrong, and we still rained - Anyway, that GFS was a joke... Not sure if this present version is any better with those thermodynamics in the boundary layer. Both versions have a 'stretching' /longitude bias in the mid levels that's pretty demonstrable at all times, ... heredity it has gained from the last version, which also did that progressivity thing even worse. So it may be incrementally improved, who knows... But in any/all these cases, that heat dome from that big ridge event that early July was still verifying less. Even at 95/76 (76 might be pricey... was it less?), that was under cooked by some ... so as far as as the synergy abstraction, it was both a failed historic ridge because of the weird nodal-hemispheric cool sink, while still managing to be an inferno - which perhaps belies the former... interesting.

I get the humor ... but you know, there is a kind of 'emergence tendency' ? It's a bit abstract as a concept, but the 'gestalt' : the synergistic product that cannot really be defined by individual component analysis, but when they operate together, you get winning or losing streaks. In either streak, the contribution seems to be unchanging, yet for some reason, the results flop positive or negative ... notwithstanding observation biases and all that rigor - We've been in losing streak for cold and snow enthusiasts, period. We've had leading indicators that just flat out failed. And, some of the indicators themselves also failed - which makes it 'uniquely failing' - it's as though insidious like some agency is attempting to deliberately lead down primrose paths only to prove deceptive - haha. Seriously though, we've had times in our lives when the opposite for cold and snow enthusiasm ...where we couldn't lose. Every perturbation physically identifiable upstream in the hemisphere's greater circulation eddy just found a way to delay office and school openings. We don't question the success times with quite the same zeal, I can imagine. Interesting. But, this is also interesting to me because I feel we've been getting stolen summers too? This has gone on since 2015's big February of lore and fact. We had a big historic heat dome two summers ago that frankly didn't verify anywhere close to what was modeled - 95/76 is nothing to shake a stick at but... 103/67 it was not. Maybe the DP/theta-e increases associated with CC and storing > WV absorbed some of the heat... who knows...But, every other heat chance has been less than that, and/or failing to materialize to the point of modeled... And there is some truth to the behavior - regardless of cause - where dimmed summers relay into early cool snaps that can't seem to parlay into winter proper. I was discussing this 'seasonal lag' effect with Mets unaffiliated with this social media and there is an agreed sentiment... the expanding HC may be why winters are being odd... Where in the summer, there is lingering tendencies to hold more ridging in the NE Pac and that is causing a counter mass balanced tendency over eastern N/A ( spread out in the longer term mean ) to lower heights just enough to keep us out of contention as a 'hot-spot' in the on-going month-to-month 'state of the climate' releases by NASA and forth. We are above normal more than not, just 'not as' much so as our synergistic result of these seasonal lag effects - supposition but it's rooted theoretically.

actually agree with this in principle... I've been trying to intimate the same in the terminating April thread - that we sort of turned the seasonal page this last week. Ending with this current system pulling away, the 850 mb thermal layout is really relaxed and > 0C S of the 45 N ... Granted the Euro attempts to flood that back in D7; I'm willing to put money down that is typically lowering heights to prodigiously in it's D7-10 - that model's going to be tough to use for sniffing out heat waves at longer leads. GFS too ...actually. Both models abolish domes for different reasons. The euro tends to take any day 5 or 6 cumulus cloud it sees over eastern Montana ...and uses it to carve out a magnificent eastern trough. While the GFS has a perpetual rasp always grinding ridge arcs flat... Either bias mutes warm getting to the 40th parallel. The Euro may actually over amplify ridges, too - - but we have admittedly not really given it that opportunity with this weird cold at least excuse imaginable pattern we've been in this recent 30 days. It's been the perfect storm of uninspired annoying weather. Overly cold and cyclonically tasty in the D8 never had a chance of verifying cold enough for a late snow ...while keeping foliage dormant because it's actually too cool to trigger green-up. Oh, it's smattering now....sure, but last year and this year, these cold April's back to back, are noticeably late here along Rt 2 compared to the previous 3 springs... 2015 was the last belated spring ... Probably average butt-bangin' for this cursed geographic region of the planet and it's atmosphere - I'll tell ya I'm living in the wrong environment after March 15 ... I'm checked out by that date, and about 2/3rds of all springs, that is when the cold checks in because of this maddening seasonal lag we've been getting more and more of because of apparent CC

Pattern may look like horse shit for whatever personal reason in the models looking into the mid/ext range but there is a clear tendency to moderate the 850 thermal layout. In fact the current system is pretty much the coolest event through at least a seven. So probably cool and wet or mild, as opposed to cold and wet or faux mild in sunny nooks ...I don’t believe those Canadian and euro runs out there towards the end are going to be correct with that because they look typically over amplifying in that range

We’ve actually been in the snow surplus for the better part of 20 to 25 years… I mean if it’s snow we’re talking about. It’s hard to say because the climate is based on 30, 200 .. 300 yr means, and as each data site gets expanded it might try to elucidate a different normal. But I think since 1900, based on that average we have definitely been living a charmed life forever winter enthusiasts. It makes putrescent years that much worse…. I grew up in the 1980s-as I date myself lol. But uh ... I think five or six of those years of that decade we’re kind a like this last winter season; although this is not a statement statistical comparison, just by value of having to endure them. We were used to it in the ‘80s. The 1990s rolled around ..,after I think 1991 .. we started handing out bombs and yardstick storms like Pezz dispensing. ‘99 was a bad winter and there’s been some sprinkled along the way in between obviously 2012 sucked ... this one. By and large I think it’s been the opposite of the 1980s where perhaps 6 out of 10 have been outstanding have been better than average since 1992.

May be better up your way in Maine... If that happens in the day-light hours of Tuesday with that -2 to marginal appeal, it's not doing much down this way - we'll see the snow level a few hundred fee up while a couple bigger aggs get down..Those fields have nice geometry and form with that cyclonic wrap... but are not deep/amped enough for nearing May post sun-up... we'll see. interesting -

everything I mentioned/concerned for this thing is happening ...creeping, it's slowly transformative toward a typical cat paw cold rain elevation bore.. It's typically solar mangled normalizing in the closing/modeling as it nears we see in spring ... Overly conserved baroclinic physics at this time of year, in the model complexion in mid ranges, tends to do this and systems get shredded when short termed. Unless the system is above a certain magnitude of SD kinematics ... May 77 or some April systems of yore...etc... which this one does not possess in my opinion. As I stated, it is too open and stretching/progressive, so a marginal atmosphere needs the opposite to happen - it needs to be slowing down with height falls once we get passed ( really ) March 20th... It'll snow somewhere...but that idea of blue cake for more pervasive entertainment was probably more of a red herring -

Delayed but not denied ? An interesting pulse in the atmosphere is evident on hi res vis as it is passing SW to NE through the area; the sun is starting to erode the edges but this wave impulse seems to be accelerating that erosion process. Right behind it deforms this stagnated cloud bank along and east of the cordillera. The preponderance of this morning cloud ceiling was not very well-modeled to be in here to begin with, and it's stolen a couple/few hours of morning sun, but given the trends we should have the open sky appeal ..noon or so. Days are getting long. It's 52 here despite ..and if/when the sun opens, d-slope flow should pop the low 60s. Not bad ... If we can couch days like this between yesterday's putrescence, and Monday evening blue-ball spring snow fake-out .. it almost makes it tolerable.

Saw that .. the one thing this god-awful spring hasn't given us is a stream topper and near-by ball park submerger ...where the green trash can's top 6 inches sticks out of the water and ducks swim by 2nd base...

Probably bullshit though I mean I don’t know if the Euro at 12z was gonna be that wrong this close .,,could be… I mean it is a marginal scenario and that requires a really discrete analysis even for those models

I’m not at that party sorry - you got that wrong. That 18z Nam may not be an accident - it came in warmer. That was warned and should be fascinating oh wait

probably have to get that over more than -3 SD for those Kuchy snow charts to have a chance... else, half that, gone by 5 pm is the typical climo at < that 1,000 K els just sayn' - but we really shouldn't let objectivity get in the way of a good neurotic fulfillment romp -

I would also caution that the NAM tends to run a cool bias in synoptic events around here from hours 60 to 84 ... I've seen this countless times, and then it ticks warmer again coming into shorter range. I suppose the 'encouraging' aspect is that some of these globals are chilly - agreed...so it may not be a straight application of bias in this case... but just sayn'

I like the d-slope dandy faux warmth appeal on Saturday ... should be 64 F with mid Augie sun lazing the land between 2 and 5 pm, with light wind ..it'll seem utopic. In a subtle way, it's an homage to 1997. That Saturday was 62 F up at UML ...with high based fair weather cumulus, the tops of which were curling off to the S direction as though hinting Kelvin/Hemholdz wavelet in form. And the air seemed to almost shimmer at distances ... like heat on a savanna along with the exuberance of seasonal change ... as gaiety erupted and youth spilled out onto the commons round campus... ZOMB! This won't do that... I mean, we don't have a -4 SD mid level gyre coring a hole in the atmosphere S of LI on Monday, but... just the cold anomaly is anchored in a slow moving L/W and gives sort of similar idea of mocking face smack weather change. Then Sunday is a transition dreariness ... and then overnight into Monday morning, 72 to 84 hours on the Euro, that might be the best chance using that particular guidance suggestion. So in the wee hours of Monday morning through dawn, for getting a marginal atmosphere with dynamics running over top to pull a surprise. As Chris intimated, you can see during the afternoon that it tries to flip back to rain as the 'quasi' cold conveyor arc is [likely] too dynamically weak for the late April sun. This hearkens to an email with some other site-non-participating Mets over the winter, this thing that going on with the climate over the last 20 .. and in particular, 10 years, with seasonal lag - at both ends for that matter. These unusual October snow in the air if not outright on the ground, and even more frequently occurring in Aprils and Mays dating back to 2000 (roughly when both ends started statistically hockey-sticking those averages) is a bit too concurrent with CC to assume it is purely coincidental. April's a smear month in that debate though ... because it's technically not a warm climate month and going back 300 some-odd years there's enough snow in there to suggest that's just prone to winter at our latitude/geological circumstance of continental loading happenstance. The greater circulation eddy of the hemisphere is going to cause cyclonic curl over SE/E Canada because of the rest state PNAP bulge over the Rockies out west... and that lends to late chill.. ... but I'm digressing.. Anyway, over the last 20 years we've seen an odd sort of tendency for global off-setting cool region to set up somewhere near-by to eastern N/A to cause 2/3rds of springs to do this here. It's just statistically demonstrative, too. Prior to that ... going back over a hundred years, 'these shouldn't be happening'

Thank you

It’s funny too cuz I wrote this morning about not liking the snow chances because the system’s open and progressive during off climo times and what immediately happens? The next run slows down just enough. wtf

Euro's D9 was mid 70s last night, too... It does this as part of the seasonal growing pains in the runs, every year guys. You gotta let this marinade while you deny summer's coming - snark deserved! Every year we do this, with a D8 70 to 80 ... and they gradually increase in frequency...until they finally get into the D4. It's different every year as to when the successful relay into a near term happens - yeah, some years earlier...some later. It's almost like timing the Coronavirus termination: at current statistical behavior, we should be there around the end of May ( before the Autumn apocalypse really ramps it up...). Only here, we time it for maybe May 3rd ..?

Seasonal transition is still underway .. despite the apparent ebullient want for whatever that is 120 hours. Earlier this week I discussed the 850 mb thermal layout clearly modulating across the hemisphere - last night operational Euro is pretty emphatic about that. As for early next week...yeah, it's not impossible. It's not a refutation on above - it's more like typical marginal pocket of butt bang typical New England enabling BS for people that can't stand summer and can't let go of winter, allowing it to con them, and will be disappointed like it always does. It's like a last hurrah reach back of cold air (suckers!) before it gets kicked out... Even looks that way on the chart in a kind of comical homage. Kidding, but it's also possible that flattens/dims in amplitude, just like what Friday's did in this run up. This skirting wave tomorrow had much more panache in particular, the GFS from about 5 days back. It's even questionable to me at this point if we even wet the Earth much in southern NH given trends ... But given to the seasonality and modulation from daily solar abuse pummeling the mid latitudes in this ( eh hm..) mid August sun intensity, that deal next week may also deamplify. No loss to me ...but I would be personally surprised if it snows lower that 2,500 ~ feet anywhere despite UK looks... Now, I would be more inclined to say we overcome if the system were not moving so fast. We've just been a plagued with fast translation speeds since ... mid December really. It's not just the winds around the wave features in the atmosphere, with those Neptunian jet speeds of historic rage, either. It's the waves themselves. Even during this recent -EPO, and some of these pulsed -NAO's we've dealt with over the last 20 days, the individual waves in the atmosphere can't situate... Progressive long waves, foisting their internal short waves through the flow. We're just not doing et al, as fast as a month ago...and priors, but we are still seeing that happen. And we kind of want dynamic/spring type blue-bomb amplitude as a slowing/coring event? Not so much a stretching correction - going the wrong the way synoptically under an August insolation is asking a lot. Anyway, the atmosphere is marginal typical spring style heading into the 96-120 range, but the tendency above will also 'stretch' that feature and speed it up most like - besides, it is modeled to kite right along anyway.

The tenor in here smacks as predisposed over the last couple .. few pages. For whatever reason that bias aside, I stick by my guns that there's reasons for more optimism. I posted about this in brief two or three pages/days ago. Granted, we haven't had/seen much evidence in the ground-truth sensible weather, to date, but for spring/warm enthusiasts there are improving synoptic signals and aspects in the guidance wash. For one, the 850 mb thermal layout clearly does some sort of continental scope and scale modification event that's been in the models for days. No one's said that... "Rather" the grouse tenor switches from miserable winter of failure .. right into a din of no-reason to enjoy the weather misery coming. The vast region of the Canadian shield, above 40 N and beneath ~ the 60th parallel significantly rises. It goes from ~ -10C to -20C (persistently reloading into those regions), to more in the 0C to -7 range. That's not probably climate unfriendly and is in fact more seasonal for those regions, and given that is our cold source in a pattern than is less steeply loading ( loss of antecedent -EPO), then one needs to include other modulating off-sets typical of spring, and "should" be able to see reasons for less glum. Without that higher latitude, -EPO direct cold loading pattern into the hemisphere, we're talkng mid August sun radiance by the end of this week, bathing mid latitudes. That's powdered bust-MOS-just-add-so-much-as-a-wan-sky. You have to keep that in mind as a perpetual offset to any afternoon that offers a modicum of reason for more insolation. An error that is enhanced by the cold-captive audience's previous, seemingly unending gloomy suffering .. I get it. We are just not able to lens the pattern through a different look. But the objective look and the subjective look seem to be in a strained marriage right now - lol. This recent Euro's 00z depiction for Friday is comically different than the other guidance. Speaking to that ... I mean, it's RH fields show by 3pm on Friday it's clear(ing) across the region, with 850 mb temperatures climbing to +5 to +2 SW to NE, with an ongoing off-shore light component flow, with RH plummetting... It could be 60 under a warm sun at that hour... Yet, look at the GFS! holy shit... wow. That's what's gonna happen, right? Ha, could not be any more nape-angry butting heads to the Euro ... it's consistent too. I know based on the above sentiment that it is easier to just assume the GFS is suddenly the good-to guy model of all time aplomb accuracy and glory ...but, the Euro is still inside of D5 with that different universal look. It's an interesting model battle. But in fact, the Euro looks more "climate aware" for Thursday thru Saturday over all...so, it's an interesting model battle. One has winter persistence look happening under an overal warming 850 mb tapestry... while the other (Euro) looks climate friendly and is a hugely different sensible appeal. Obviously I'm inclined to go with the Euro judging by the tenor of this, but I'll nod in favor of persistence because ...sometimes you just end up in f'ed patterns too. In either case though, the 850 mb total thermal layout is much, much different, which appears - to me - to be rooted in a loss of -EPO together with a bono fide seasonal flip in that regard, and it's possible the GFS type solutions are too strong anyway. As an afterthought, when we lose the 850 mb cold source, we also theoretically relax the ambient baroclinic instability ... --> weaker/pallid systems. I guess we shouldn't consider that as room for optimism, either ?

This model ... oy... Runs a patently warm bias all winter long than hits the cold profile throttle nearing May - ... Right when the GFS starts really heating up the extended, too. pullin' 564 dm thickness to Boston for several days on end after D7 would support mid 70s if not 80 in good mixing, wind and sun ...right when the GGEM finally commits to winter -

This NAM synopsis for the the day after tomorrow really shows a jolt back toward seasonality - and then some. Could be 31 to 33 in blue-dawn snows tomorrow in the interior ... up and down peoples' neighborhoods, then 63 to 66 over those same driveways circa 4pm the following day... I wonder if we can lay down 6" and lose 6" inside of 30 hours - interesting...

I was living in Waltham at the time. It was a Saturday? if memory serves... Nice coastal with CCB, and I remember peering out from the 3rd floor window of my apartment as sheets of white rain with the occasional noodle fatty were whipping by in sheets. It looked like 85 to 90% rain, but that 10/15 percent's plenty to detect "floaty rain drops" And it was like 39 F there in that neighborhood above Moody Street where I was living. I remember geek-studying the wind-strewing sky for the tell-tail sign of the freezing level just off the deck and could clearly see the snow undulate form just failing to kiss the ground at that location. Farther west in the interior had flipped to soaked cotton-balls... I think it was 101 over July Fourth weekend that year too... man. But, that was 1 month prior to the summer Solstice, without an occurrence in the previous 5 year climate uptake resembling significant volcanism and if anything, we were in solar max then ( check that...). Pretty impressive...