Typhoon Tip

It's interesting as an aside ... the GFS members have been theming that 22nd period of time for over a week's worth of cycles, in various complexions among the members along the way. Not consistent at the detail level, no but give 'em a break. It's 300+ hours out. Plus, the fact that 2/3rds * thus the majority* carry the trough appeal on pretty much every run ( in the mean), I think they've earned the right to vary their individual solutions within a common theme. One thing that sticks out for me is the Hadley Cell is beaten down ... perhaps only temporarily, but that's a big factor in getting to and ( eventual ) phased solution, ...should more phasing be in the cards. Otherwise, we're prooobably not going get this one done with N/Stream alone given the progressive nature of the flow between the 45th and 65th latitudes around our side of the hemisphere ( that's A ) ...but the other aspect is that the NAO - I believe - isn't "really" negative in that time frame? I'm starting to strongly suspect it's just weighted down by a much more obvious negative Arctic Oscillation overlapping - have to remember that the AO and the NAO share domain space, and thus, can skew the other's true static characteristic. Nooormally they run along similar out in time, but just not always. Anyway, that doesn't mean that an intermediate midriff Canadian S/W can't time an ally-'oop with the TV and do the subsuming thing. The trick is, the heights in the deep S/SE need to relax for the TV S/W's identity to remain in tact. Otherwise, ..the fast flow that results from the compression will absorb the S/Stream short wave and that's bad. The other option is that the flow indeed relaxes in the S, and the N/Stream just gets out of the way entirely...and the S/Stream wave just turns into a Miller A deal... Few plausibilities on the table...

Nice ... Euro squares off against the NAM GFS is in NAM's corner more so than not. I mean ...I just accept the run-to-run vicissitudes of the NAM as built in, and once accounting for those as a given aspect ...it's performing remarkably consistent within that framework - haha. But, the Euro being pancakes with no butter and syrup mashed comparing to either of those former two solutions ( or their blend) is an interesting quandary now passing into the outer edge of shorter range. I suspect this 12z ( in particular ) may see either camp adjust - could also be they are all wrong and reality finds a verification straight compromised in between. Have to remember ..these are fact"similes," not fact"exactitude" of the atmosphere. It is then up to the analytics and experience of the forecaster to pick and choose, and, ..pick and choose particular aspects too. That's another thing. One can pick overall storm morphology from one tool ... and reserve the right to pick the ptype layout from the other ( for example), even though the other could be quite obviously wrong about the storm morphology. That's a whole 'nother flavor of headache that comes along with this business. That all said...this system is almost sub-pedestrian looking. Unlikely to go much beyond - maybe it'll amp up in these closing cycles ...or go away entirely. I almost hope that happens just for the Schadenfreude of it. Come to think about it.. .it's a been quite awhile since we've suffered the ignominy of a true whiff - talkin' wipe the board sunny skies whiff. It may not be possible for that scale-and degree of f-up by the models this day age, so maybe if judging the modern day tech and carrying conceit about where we are with things should go by the lowest common denominator for success? That's really what the state of the art is: just slightly above the sunny whiff. Kidding there ... a little.

Defensive dismissal

I saw that too, Nick... and was also wondering, 'why stop there' Still talking enough time for that to keep digging - that's be almost understandable given how things have been working out - heh.

Scott's right ...the CONUS is mild to at times warm both in trends since October ( really ) and in the models, depending on model type and cycle ... amplitude therein. Except ...here. The problem with that... not dependable, and probably... sustainability is in question. You C.H. the flow some how and the whole thing flops warm really quick. Just look at that warm rainers we're getting in a month that's -3 to -5 at all climo sites, while also boasting some 150% of Dec snow norms when it's just the ides of the month - it's like, how could it be raining in with those two empirical metrics!! Yet here we are... It's because it's all "fragile" and not really based on a N/A pattern that is dependable. Thus... IFFY deal with it. Frankly, we need a bona fide -EPO with at least time-staggered +PNA pulses to sustain cold on a big enough scale that there is fiddling/wobble room. We had that ... for 10 days, and got a big event out of it... couched in a cold pattern. The evidence is there... the pattern changed we've been scraping by as winter enthusiasts ever since ...

That modest but important +PP N of Maine is the whole thing... I'm not seeing any warm intrusion making much N of the southern sections when we see that - it really never happens. Particularly when we have some cryospheric feedbacks up that way by then. Folks should realize, this thing is a blizzard for much of eastern Ontario and then we have that fresh high cresting around western Maine and White Mountains two days later... I think we're seeing a pretty strong CAD expression nosing down from that set up and if the Euro frontal tapestry plays out during that sort of correction we probably have an snow-ice-snow evolution - Not major - but light to middling

Come to think about it... that'd be a funny awesome SNL car commercial.. The Fujiwara ...and have it just like spinning out of control down a highway -

Ha haaa

and it's more pervasive than that, too.. all of Massivetwoshits north of the Pike is 33 to 35 with DPs < 32 this hour, and enough home stations with NW and N wind to suggest at least an interval of drain is underway. Saturate this llv and I suspect we're 31.8 icing -

Yeah...we seem to be draining here .... Temp settled back to 33 and the dp is back under 30. Given the wind is already ageo ... probably a good idea they've got wwa up - it only takes .01 of glaze to fuji wara a vehicle down a highway..

Yee haw! nothin' like frozen Earth over-topping along rivers

mm..nah, doesn't look like that kind of deal - ha ... I said dream, not 'wet dream'

That Euro run was Kevin's dream ... That looks like 2 or 3" of snow followed by .42" accretion on the massif ...followed by a possible 1-3" burst as heights fall and secondary probably fires off

This would be fun solution if this rendition were closer to reality mid week ...

But like I said earlier... the models have been oscillating between cabin fever boring and then more storminess, every other runs as of late...

Still has zippo southern stream for the 22nd ... That's been this models ( Euro's ) achille's heel for that latter gig, and that the GFS has been maintaining a S/stream wave identity and the Euro never has seen it once. Fascinating -

Aw-oh ...that's nice. The Euro came back a bit more robust... Looks like this solution ( Tues->) offers start as snow, then ice/rain, ends as snow exit sort of scenario -

Imho, a lot of these modeling peregrinations we've been observing are because of the fast flow. At really no time during the last three to five days of modeling the heights from old Mexico ...over the GOM latitudes, to regions over the SW Atlantic Basin, have heights really rendered to total normalcy. They are neutral to above, sometimes very much so depending on model species and cycle therein. That is presenting a problem for mechanical wave-spaces that attempt to propagate E through the field at middle latitudes. The "fanning" effect that people are seeing with vorticity getting pulverized between the ~ eastern Lakes to Texas is a direct result of high antecedent heights resisting, and concomitant higher that average geostrophic wind velocities result over the eastern/SE U.S.; this than absorbing said wave mechanics. I warned folks ...well, beginning 7 years ago... ha, that this kind of thing may be increasingly more observed as the Hadley Cell latitudes encroach into the lower Ferril Cell latitudes... In 50 years, there may only be two cells that define the hemispheric circulation engine: Hadley and Polar...with just a screaming wind banded max separating them at most times. Anyway, back on present Earth... The Solstice 'event' that's been popping up among the various GFS members appears to take place when the N/Stream backs off some... thus, lowering compression, relaxes the wind fields ...and in that time range, S/W and beta-scaled L/W have more mechanical presence in the flow and are those more able to engineer storminess. Those members have been taking advantage. But, they could still all be wrong, too. oy - But it's not just about wave absorption and shearing. It's also about timing ... adding that into the fray only complicates things further.

Heh... right. Just scanning NWS/Norton's climate site... Worcester's setting at -4.5 F departure temperature for the month ( so far ), with 23.1" of snow. Considering the latter, snowfall ( the focus of most users malcontent ...), when inducting the usage of this site, " https://www.weather-us.com/en/massachusetts-usa/worcester-climate#snowfall " ( which I admittedly I have not vetted) Decembers in Worcester average 14.4" If there's truth to these empirical values... ORH are presently sitting at over 160% of average at nearly -5 F, to date ( and it's only just the 13th mind us) ...and this winter sucks? Nah... what sucks is the lives of those judging things that way. I mean, the Earth's atmosphere can only do so much to bring people joy ( ) ... Otherwise, if one has no other pathways to pass-times that are enriching, there's a problem

Well... so far my seasonal prediction is panning out perfectly... Hadley Cell won't yield, and we are flip flopping madly between extremes...

For the convective nuts ... the 12z NAM has regional Lifted Indexes down to -1 .. 0 from NYC to BOS and southeast. T1 at Logan to 15 C with 500H thickness to 563 dm suggests warm sector intrusion perhaps along that line. Hell, S wind to 30 knots too - almost wonder if there's rotation in there... That's a wild-like complexion either way. Even in the interior, where I suspect that gets some resistance and is forced aloft by some...there may be lightning flashes and crackles with shallow inversion and warm frontal success off the deck.

Heh,... 'specially if it's loud from a miscalculated leaner, right when the pastor is about to quote the book of Jobe ... " ...And he said to man, 'Behold, the fear riiiiiiiiiIIII PH, of the Lord ... ah, hem"

You can bun me all you want, Ray ( lol ) but it's true... that harmonic thing does seem to take place from time to time, and as so many of us in here are really here to get that 'drug', it's the only hope they got that their pusher isn't pinched and will show up for the next fix more sooner than later.

I have a tepid suspicion the 12z guidance suite, across the board, offers more cinema and features for hopes and dream realization . heh. This happened 24 hours ago .. The previous 00z run was concrete for blood, drop dead douchy looking. Then, the 12z yesterday brought a lot back to rejoice. Now, the 00z suite more than less goes back to that previous cycle's vibe. Having this 12z cycle come in more like yesterday's 12z, off-set dynamic and far more entertaining overall appeal is A, ...not likely to happen because I'm merely mentioning it ... and B, understandable because of 'sloshing'? It's a "Science Fiction" process in the atmosphere that I noticed years ago, where the models seem to do just what the suggests. En masse, move in a given direction, then, yo-yo back... yo-yo forward, yo-yo back. I see it more frequently in the summer monitoring heat wave evolution - a phenomenon that is highly coveted by the ensemble of users in this particular social mediasphere, of course... But, you'll get this big ridge expression and heat dome on one look, then the next cycle pan-cakes all ridges...only to bring them back. It almost gives an impression of like 'tides' in the models - which would be interesting as they are not actually real, but virtual representations and so forth. They don't always do this... but there some kind of synchronizing phenomenon there where they tend to harmonically express the same error in a given direction - that may be all it is... Chancy harmonics. who knows... But 00z shit, 12z hope, 00z shit... maybe 12z hope?

Interesting ensemble battle wrt that Solstice era event out there. There were enough 00z members of the GFS cluster that were still signaling a system in the east to not to give up on that, despite the 00z overall complexion to not do anything at least excuse imagined ( jesus ). Yet, the EPS mean is very flat and uninspired in that D8-9-10 range, even suggestive of a flat roll-out ridge through the NP/Lakes longitudes getting ready to furnace eastern N/A ( most likely .. ). I mean that's the impression I get from this image's extrapolation below .. an extrapolation based in no small part on the 'animation' of the two days leading. It just looks like it was programmed to ruin Christmas: Obviously the mean/average can be misleading somewhat, if there are particular stand-out awesome versions contained whose voices are being dinned out by the loudness of the majority asshole runs. I mean, that's how Democracies of humanity work too - why the hell not. In fairness, the mean of the GFS is not hugely different in principle comparing this image above, for the same time ... the stellar deterministically dependable D 10 10 10 .. It's actually just presenting more curvature amplitude variation on the same them. My guess is there's like one...maaybe two bombs in the total EPS din, and the rest are empty. So perhaps the EPS will go ahead and modulate its way on over to the GFS, which will also modulate on over to the cryospheric dystopian horror cinema that seems to give people an odd elation high ( fascinating goal ..). Like I said yesterday... or at least intimated, I'm not ready to subsume the GFS anything in lieu of the Euro, for the extended, because my personal experiences with the Euro is that it is not infallible in that time range - anyway...yeah... I get it. But, it is enough so that the GFS/mean therein is just as plausible. No... the Euro owns < 5.5 ... and probably more like 4.5 day leads. Otherwise, it's pop-corn and coke movie time.