Typhoon Tip

Not to poke the hornets nest with a hope stick or nothin' but that is more committal to secondary compared to the prior couple of cycles...

so... looks like 2" of pack equivalence has ceded to the warm air despite some consideration for it's density and retention... That may be case with snow piles/berms and protected valleys and wooded areas but open regions are down to dead grass and mud ... at last here in Shrewsbury. 3" + 2" is 5" over a basin wide area with frozen ground must make for interesting hydro concerns

No snow remains here in the open expanses ... just the piles fight for life... We busted both temperature and QPF on the high side, ... not helping.

Interesting winter ... We've commiserated the rain-freeze pattern ... many times in the past, but having a high temperature of 4F and then 3" of rain at 52 hardly two days later with zippo winter fall during transition is a uniquely horrifying achievement - definitely transcends if you're a winter enthusiast. This may actually be the most vivid realization of the cold to rain flop I have personally ever witnessed. hm

This Euro run is really just the nearer termed manifestation of that big weird looking hyper anomalous vortex it tried to plunk down deep into the OV several days ago... It's probably all still just a reflection of numerical potential in the runs at this range anyway... Anothe run or two for the details to start emerging but that period may just be a Lakes destiny.

It's still look like a more favorable pattern beyond the stem-winder Lakes thing... We may yet cash-in on some overrunning in that, too - But the pattern's a better fit for 'winter storms' here thereafter -

So the Euro's setting up an overrunning event ...

This reminds me of just another of those water loaded events we had in December...

Today strikes me as a roll-out in the mass fields prior to that buzz-saw amplitude in the mid and early extended ranges across southern/SE Canada... it's like a "slosher" event ... The flow is trying buckle initially to set that buzz-saw up and in doing so,... it concomitantly needed to tip the flow more S/meridian in nature back east. I'm envisioning a better storm potential out around D8-12 because ... this buzz-saw does not appear slated for very protracted domination in the circulation media over this side of the hemisphere... and besides ...there is an apparent robust +PNA signal in coming next week and that should send a disruptive pattern signal through the Canadian Shield...effectively dislodging whatever is raging there. So...flow relaxes some... Pacific sends an important wave through the flow, and there is still ample vestigial continental cold/enhance baroclinicity, and then said S/W is in a better petridish for cyclogenesis. Basically...this is a short physical concept that describes an Archembaultian thing...

I'm not sure what's driving that MJO change in the GEFs derivative but that's demonstratively strong through Phase 7 as of the overnight publication. Last week I commented that the MJO was prognosticating at the time ... quite similarly to the December era Phases 4-6 ... in terms of daily intervals and magnitude of the wave in the WH. This GEFs explosion in Phase 7 is also a behavior that took place as those December phase spaces matured. Now here we are in late Phase 5 and the present prognostication is showing the same surge. Also, similarly in that total behavior ...the ECMWF-based products are not nearly as robust - these latter model types also conflicted with the previous phase 7 and on and so on... Basically, it seems the total theme is repeating in the hemisphere. It is as though it is really locked as far as source and sink and these wave spaces appear to be migrating through at relative strength/biases to each models. I suspect this passage isn't going to make sense to some reader in here,... but I thought I mentioned that the MJO is definitely repeating a pattern across subsequent propagation events, just the same. ----- Until that intense and pervasive SPC fills and pulls out that is situated over southern /SE Canada, I don't believe the regions from the GL-OV-NE are favored for bigger more organized episodic cyclones. You can see the models agreeing with that philosophy too, where they show the compression alleviates beyond D8 or 9 and then suddenly there more in the way of wave spaces kinking the isohypsis near middle latitudes of the extended. That's the relaxation of the intense compression we suffer over the next week or so... allowing those waves to conserve their own mechanical presence in the flow circulation. This is a partial mitigation ...not an absolute one. It's possible to overcome compression ... 2015 February did so because the SPV got so intense it pressed the entire compressed part of the field S of the 40th parallel in the means for three weeks, inside of which we spun up coastals... That's rarer though. The other way are these "SWFE" deals ... if a high pressure out ahead is timed well and a system goes west, you triple point with snow to ice to cold drizzle then ends.... temp pops for 12 hours in lagged CAA then you bone chill D2 ...

Wouldn't shock me if the GL-OV-NE regions had to wait out the buzz saw before anything important happens... Flow looks better to me way out there after that useless deep fills/rolls out enough for S/Ws to become the dominate torque providers again.

... is this guy for real ?

Have you ever been flogged by a cosmic dildo....

..yup ... lasts for three weeks, then ...right on Kevin's favorite date, February 10 ... this rolls east

and I add... the unusual depth of that trough core is assisting in making that west... could be an amplitude bias in the Euro at work. It is day 6 in the Great Lakes and only coming together D5 over the high plains region so it may be susceptible to it's fantasies in that range. I could see that correcting "a little" flatter, and perhaps backing off a dose of SD ... my god. ...

GGEM offers up a longish duration light snow to light ice event next week fwiw -

It seems there is a tendency to conflate "bad luck snow" with lack of cold ...? I don't think December ... when considering relative to our climatology ... was "too warm to snow" ...and in fact, one could even argue that some of our more prolific snow years are not more than a degree ...degree and a half away from normalcy, up or down, anyway. I think the 1980s ..part of the reason that decade was so frustrating is that there were few months in a few winters in there that managed the rarer neggie month ... with neggie snow. That's a hard to do 'round dees parts. Looking at this monster SPC in the mid/extended range... it's not hard to imagine how to put down a neutral/neggie month with no snow.. This is not not not not not not not saying it's going to be case this time ... but, just used as a visual aid to elucidate the point; if a big cold whopper vortex elephant's assed into the flow and mooshed everything down to flat nuance for a 20 days stint... you'd be talking 2/3rds of the way through a month in a gelid desert. There's just no way to spin or rationalize or blame this on anything other than two storms in two month dearth - period. It is what it is... again, not not not not not not not not not not not not saying it's going to be the rest of the way. Just putting the truth of a shit result into an undeniable light. It's been cold enough; it hasn't snow (that much). Deal with it...

Starting to look Feb 2015-ish out there with that exotic vortex E of JB

Impressive EPO ridge/noded block formulation in the 00z guidance by D10 ... I was mentioning to Scott the other day ... I thought it was possible that the receding back to the data-line of the Alaskan sector might by false .... He was speaking in deference to the D11-15 ... but, sufficed it is to say, this rather abrupt onset of D10 -EPO construct shows that "tendency" lurks ... I would be taking even the EPS' D11-15's with a grain -

It's out to 144 hours at GG ... Same old same old.... too much compression...waves tending to shear/absorb... Sloped and gradient rich gives faux allusion of favorability but until some of the velocity saturation comes down...it's going to be tooth pulling getting broader organized events to pan out -

Yeah, that's my impression at this point in time. Although ... It may be just the too little part. The problem is dreaded flow compression; there's too much ... The trough in Canada is actually too much of a good thing - it's vastly pervasive and deeply cold, so much so that it's scale and degree of anomaly is "pressing" on the surround hemispheric medium (which is illustrated by all the geoptential height lines you see, in that there are an unusually large number of them), and that pressing ensues very strong ambient velocity --> individual S/W's are less differentiating on the flow, and less differentiating = negative wave interference. There are two forms of destructive wave interference really when we get down to it... One is having two S/W too close to one another in the flow, and their wave spaces cancel enough of the other out to negate their individual potency... The other, is to have a S/W embedded in a raging planetary scaled maelstrom (such as that which we are seeing in the mid and extended range); the negation is happening between the larger, super-synoptic scale and the individual S/W(s). This is more of the latter type ... and as a result, that set up doesn't allow for the type of phasing that Mon/Tues time frame would require.... and so neither stream is potent enough to overcome the compression and sufficiently "hink" the flow enough for cyclogenesis on their own. Just keep in mind .. this all may read as though these are absolute limitations and mitigators... That's not true either. Think of it this way... the highway these S/Ws are on have ginormous tolls ... where they have to offer up their first born son to go for a ride... The one after that ... the Euro attempts to phase ... but, if one is following this discussion logically/properly ... their immediate conclusion that the Euro is questionable would be the correct one. Having said that ... something is probable in the flow at that time, regardless of how big or small or what shape and size... There's too much support from various ensemble clusters and operational version therefrom to ignore the potential...

It's an interesting pack-retention experiment if folks let it... There's been discussion about "pack density" - or the amt of water that is frozen into it, as being more resistant. It's a short duration warm up, so offers a unique opportunity for a controlled environmental test of those conjectures. They seem clad ... I mean, more actual frozen water should physically require more therms, whether by intensity or time-integral. The question isn't whether it melts though - folks need to know the difference... The same amount melts, it's a matter of density having more mass, so it seems resilient but its really not. It simply means it has more frozen mass to "give back" to liquid phase state, so it seems to melt slower. Not hard to visualize what this means; a loosely packed snow ball and an ice cube of roughly similar volume left on a counter top at room temperature ... come back in an hour: which does one imagine lasts longer. But that's the visualization ... the experiment should performed.

That overnight Sunday--> monday evolution narily misses an apocalypse man... holy shit ho ... if only.. Get that 498 core 400 miles S, which at this range is a dime in Met, ... watch out... Heh, nice that the pattern changed, huh

Yeah but this is when it's wicked fun to poke the hornets nest ... So readable... transparent really, and endless tormented fun. Seriously the EPS looking suspiciously Miller B -ish for D7/8... It's interesting because there's been operational contention for more of a Miller A... yet the EPS ops for more N-stream. And by the way, this is the closer manifestation of that whopper amplitude the models were putting up in their extended from 3 or 4 days ago. I think there's a still an important signal in that time frame but we don't really know what is going to come of it.

Know what's gonna be awesome ... ... I was just noticing that it is January 22. 22! I can't believe it's been 22 days since New Year's eve... Then I got to thinking, that kind of zoomed time experience is going to happen (of course...) moving forward, and it'll be almost the ides of February. And thank god ... it'll almost be over -