Typhoon Tip

They're joking around around but that's not it. The annual solar nadir, which begins at our latitude roughly November 8 and ends February 8, marks the end of it for me. The sun starts to offset snow on "light cloudy" event days... and pack eats back really efficiently almost immediately noticeable upon succeeding that time. We can even steam road surfaces while that happens as the month ages beyond that time and it's a pretty clear environmental signal that the clock is ticking, and the futility of winter and winter storms and all that, grows for me. But hey ..I'm the first to admit my hypocrisy at tuning back in if it gets interesting enough. It's just like my internal seasonal clock and the alarm goes off, and I'm hitting the snooze button.

Oh yeah... in case I forget... I do like the idea of a late season west based -NAO... If it doesn't happen my feelings won't be hurt or anything - ha... it's just that we are fire hosing progressive patterns with warm invasion and velocity into the lower Ferrel latitudes all season along ( save so far our one relaxation episode spanning 10 days very recently ), and typically in March the flow starts to abate/wane anyway as the boreal cold engine revs back down. In that window, there is a tendency as the waves are just starting to shorten, for latent heat to dump into the NAO's western domain space and should the surrounding medium support so, height eruption there has some climate precedence. That's sort of evident in the 2017 as Ray intimates there ...and this does seem candidate year for that. I don't want it -heh...no, as by then I'm definitely checked out (unless it's 1888 )

And I wonder if this is taking place in the GEFs cluster again ... They were ending winter just yesterday, now... show hope - what next Not sure, but this strikes me as the same old two-step reversals that's maddeningly been taking place at all scales and dimensions, all season long. What mean by that is, we have like four days worth of cycles hitting at an event and suddenly poof. Gone. Which, four days worth of cycles is 24 run times... That's a strong argument for good continuity; yet, it hasn't mattered this year. And it is not just the operational runs doing this. The entire weight of ensemble means have been screwing the pooch with unusually weighty continuity - gone... Just f'n happen man. What is actually sequencing off the coast over the next 72 hours is pretty much completely irrelevant to mid range complexion from earlier in the week. Some may argue through detail spinning, that is not the case...but nah... This is coherently a very bad year for modeling at all time ranges, and chunks there in/ save for short range! We forget that ( not you per se...just in general) to look for where the runs are okay.. They're still doing their jobs reasonably well ..at times very much so at < say 84 hours...maybe even 96. It seems to be performance issue mostly in the mid range + ... Which unfortunately is including the teleconnectors. This latter aspect is really a head scratcher because that rattles confidences when needing to establish 'correction vectors' ..blah blah. But the mid range thing is really us being spoiled. The best Mid range modeling year ever was 1995-1996 So anyway, last night the GEFs come in with WPO slipping negative - I think that is the first time the west Pacific looked AB'ish in that particular guidance at ESRL, this year. And, the EPO is negative too. Yesterday? Neither showed that... So, based on continuity break, and the seasonal trends/observations above.... can't be trusted. Also, the MJO is trying to wrap back around and emerge on the sore-butt side of the Wheeler, which is out of sync/destructive interference wrt to WPO and EPO slipping neggative. So, they would conflict with one another...and the rhea wheel spins around... I just think this is our winter... I do. It's a storm of indecision .. played out by maddening hints for hope and salvation, only to have the "emergence behavior" always fractal negative for organization centered around more classic intents and desires ( so to speak...). No one asked this, but I mused near over the summer of 2015 how that previous winter, with it 350% above seasonal snow totals it brought to some, but was generally 150 pervasively for SNE ... would mean that have bad winters for the next five years would make our longer term numbers spot on. Ho man how prophetic that account seems to be - sorry haha. My normal check out time is looming... Feb 10 ... That's when I don't care, but... am willing to check back in if a storm punches thru GW/CC and occurs against increasingly off-set odds because of the former abbreviations. By the way, I count five S/W getting absorbed by absolutely astounding wind velocities over mid latitudes and south, over the next 12 days of modeling, and that is the HC whether the cackling rabble understands why or not.

American tele's are bring an early end to winter... Then, we'll probably get a cold even in march when the spring relaxation builds a west based NAO block ... I mentioned this a couple days ago - ... We'll see.. But I've never seen so many crushing mid level wind velocities across mid latitudes in the GFS ever! That run is historic in an insidious way. In fact, look at it at 108 hours THAT is what f-up your storm.... Not N/stream this and S/stream that...no, the Pacific fist running a 120 kt sustain over top ridge arc wind tube is NEVER going to allow a storm to fester up the EC... It could be a wrong as a solution ...but it timing something differently has to happen -

Climb on top of someone you love - that slows it down

yeah I was just gonna mention how the 12z Euro sets up D7 with another one of these absurd 60s in CT with 30s in S. VT

mm.. and push, it's a conditioning thing by over stimulus to be that way - what did they do a 100 year ago?

Starting to remind me of some of those late 1980's ticker-tape bombs that used to scroll at the bottom of TWC updates... portending doom..only to have the low shift just a c.h. SE at the last minute after suffering three periods in a row of blizzard headlines and 1978 comparisons... only now, the models might just have a clue that a near miss is in the tea leafs.. (sarcasm..but - )

It seems to be the whole ball of wax on this this thing - Just a quick critique - you mentioned earlier that the N/stream involvement didn't seem very plausible to you "because the flow is tipping progressive" - or words to that affect. I don't see how/why 'progressive' characteristic of the total flow behavior is a logical delimiter there. Progressive happens in either stream...it's just a tendency for r-wave rollouts to move actively west-toward east at mid latitudes..which can be endemic to either. That said, "phasing" per se is harder - not so much because it can't happen, but... because the models are not sophisticated enough to handle the narrowing margins for error down to finite scales, required to correctly assess whether there is syncing mechanics in the stream spacing and so forth. It's a bit advanced...but, it really has to do with the coriolis forcing in three-D. 2Ω (v sinφ - w cosφ), -2Ωu sinφ, and 2Ωu cosφ, which handles the west to east in U, north south in V and W of course being up down. Anyway, as these are combined, if any one exceeds a critical value/threshold ...the velocity of the system overwhelms the forcing and the system doesn't "feel" the exertion to rotate...or 'curve' as much. That's why fast flow tends to curve less ... ? It doesn't mean it curves none - it curves less...These factor work out to decimal forcing when you put in values for latitude and wind velocity. So, you have to do all that at the latitude, per wind and so forth, at different levels...to get to a "syncing" phase... That's why these thing are tougher to phase at higher speeds... And, it is why the models have been tending to correct phasing toward the upper/outer Maritimes ...when they were first doing so closer to home when they were in the extended. It's like it's getting better data into the f term and than the field corrects to a phasing further down stream because the curvature forcing could not take place in time to get us here. These runs are trying to over come that by digging the N-stream sort of calving west against the eastern slope of the western ridge ... as the ridge is pressing eastward in the progressive pattern no less. Oy. Lot of juggling here. This behavior might try to phase things soon...mainly because that digging further west earlier on. Increasing some space in which to phase is like giving some time back the system.

...I'm not so sure the 'sampling shadow' is as much a factor in any uncertainty...as it was 20 years ago. Hell, even 10 years ago there were times where system morphology would take place down stream over the continent, after S/W's started nosing into the physical sounding regions out west. But the assimilation technology has gotten really pretty sophisticated. We'll see. It could still be factorable .. I just have not noticed in recent years very glaring examples of correction behavior in that regard.

Well... last night I mentioned this continuity break seemed more likely a new paradigm rather than modeling the same system that we were following, anyway? The flip-side of that same concern/observation 'might' be, gee - do we trust that... Not that anyone did - just sayn' for those grousing over modeling performance - if you are doing that, you bought in. Otherwise you wouldn't do that. So, lesson learned? Probably not. I also agree that 'more information is not always better' - in this case...as Scott mentioned, the 06 and 18z Euro products are new in the era of accessibility to the modeling cinema's age of gawk and appeal, and addiction..heh. Kidding, but seriously ... We are probably missing some familiarity-heredity as to any nuances in performance with these off hour cycles of the Euro. I mean, we have this sort of impression for the 18z GFS [ enter sarcasm here ], so it's quite plausible. I haven't run out and researched the web myself...but, I wonder, are there any disclaimers out there that discuss the Euro's 'off hour' runs - maybe they admit and/or sell it as a granular version, and therefor, it may not even employ the correction shit. I'm just spit balling.. Point being, this doesn't or should not fairly be used to judge the Euro. And, hell ...for all we know, it'll come back on the 12z and make a proper showing. Oh ..it gets harder to visualize such fortune happening in an apparent unrelenting dearth of good graces ... but if it is possible, don't give in, and be objective ..etc. Anyway, all along this was more southern stream/N/stream phasing questions. Yesterday's 18z purer N/stream with almost no S/stream become for a Miller B ...probably even NJ models solution, that was an abrupt change and break in continuity requiring the same skepticism. I sense some desperation is made the collective leap here. No criticism... Hell, what if the S/stream comes back because of the relay off the Pac on this 12z initialization that's about to get underway... And what if the Euro's N/stream idea comes back, too. Now you got a substantive S/stream running out underneath an N/stream dive through Wisconsin and we're back to some of the absurd looks from last weekend. Wouldn't be the first time a long lead system product dumped only to return. Oh I don't think so ...but, I cannot preclude it either. I'm not trying to 'bargain' by saying this - I'm trying to offer some objectivity.

Also it occurred to me late this afternoon did anybody bother to check the model verification folks today and see if maybe they got some bad data in the runs this morning. Not that it matters for this I mean like I said it looks like it’s just a whole unique new paradigm

I’ll tell you what if I was an ECMWF modeling manager I would probably be really after this one for real analysis/case study

That’s such a drastic change/demonstratively different I’m inclined to argue that we’re looking at a completely different system at this point; like the models were just wrong about everything and then we transition right into a new scenario altogether. It just happened to be fitting into the same timeframe. We are correcting for two different streams simultaneously ... coincident in time Bye-bye southern stream hello new from the North but we’ll see if it has legs

You should just call these what they really are - support group thread 1 ...support group thread 2… Thread 3 thread 4 ..5 Into infinity

That’s such a drastic change/demonstratively different I’m inclined to argue that we’re looking at a completely different system at this point; like the models were just wrong about everything and then we transition right into a new scenario altogether. It just happened to be fitting into the same timeframe. We are correcting for two different streams simultaneously ... coincident in time Bye-bye southern stream hello new from the North but we’ll see if it has legs

You know that would probably make this thing even better…? If after all this it finally comes in it’s like the most powerful northeaster ever but it’s all rain for everyone ... ho man

There's a phase correlation with the AO ... I think it's + west - east ? Anyway, that's what I was getting at ... and that over the longer term, -AO(+AO) depending on which. We have had a +AO the majority of the winter, which hate to say ... fits the QBO.

I frankly don't either ... But, I don't have access to any long-lead special regression algorithms at WSI or the government/NCEP back office experimental products either. Ensembles have not been infallible this year - I mean more so than previous years... Tele's with substantive continuity weighting have been blithely shifting passing extendeds into mids ... it's not just operationals doing this. This is more seasonal tenor-reliant I guess. For about 15 years there the stratospheric/QBO correlation was more long hand and was the way to go. You could see if the phase of the QBO was east -vs- west, and also..if it was fading vs strengthening in either, together with stratospheric temperature anomaly behavior during Dec and Jan --> rolling forward tended to parlay pretty well. Even attempting this old method ...heh, no really impressive. DEC's QBO ended 1.change but it may not be in time on the fade side... As far as the strato ..we had a non-propagating warm burst early in the month, but no sign or signature since of downwelling so... subsequent AO modulation would appear unlikely and right now, we are in a week cooler node despite whatever pot-roast the GFS' cluster is trying to serve. It's just not convincing or in time... You need 20 to 30 days of lag for SSW to AO modulation so that's the February ball game even if one obtruded in tomorrow. So, I don't know where this is coming from - but that's just me. My personal hunch is that the rest of year has dicey chances for a bomb, but important not to dismiss it...because one thing that cannot be denied is volatility amid big gradients in thickness between southern Canada and the Arklotex latitudes. So long as that's your powder-keg canvas, it's just a matter how abstract the fractal artist chooses to be. That said, it's just as likely that we do the same dance.. Then, the first sign of boreal height retreat ...we'll need to watch for a big ridge balloon in the east as the cacklers of the HC idiots eat shit in 74 F again ... Then after that ... the boreal heights warm further, and the flow relaxes, the slosh back of having late latent heat terminating to higher latitudes excites a NAO blocking episode. That then causes the same seasonal lag that's been getting more frequent over the last 10 years... and maybe a late blue deal ...more likely a lot of 44 mist to complete the theft of spring.

HA hahahahaha ...

Well... if it makes anyone feel any better ... the Euro rewards the region with 60 F full sunny early bee release weather on D 7 to make up for it -

Oh, okay - the GGEM at 84 hours looks interesting and suggestive, but it appears to blow its load in the SE with that southern mid level wind max and that runs out the B-clinic instability and strands the deeper trough from being able to do much. Yeah...'nother zample of too much fast flow.

There it is! Stage anger of post mortem

Lol... Commiseration for the loss -

GGEM actually looks reasonably similar to the NAM at 78 hours... NAM has more deep south trough expression though -