Typhoon Tip

Because nobody’s considering it

The Latest from the icon model is most likely going to be correct

Not a good teleconnector layout out for winter enthusiasts by the GEFs cluster. Not sure what the EPS derivatives look like, but both the CDC and CPC agencies which base their numbers on said cluster, flip hobbies until further notice. Right out through the pooch screwed Christmas weather ass bangin' Holiday, too Hopefully...the EPS is different and can offer some semblance of a salvation compared to the above despair. Otherwise, seek entertainment ( and for some, 'elation' joy circuitry ) elsewhere.

It could be too easy to cling to the GFS as a soothing alternative - pick delusion over despair...? sure. However, the GFS routinely stretches the flow too prodigiously in the mid and extended range, to the extent where it can't be trusted. In this case, it's bias could very well be promoting too much easterly positions of all features. GFS or Euro aside, all these guidances conserve and blow up and/or damp out, theor own bias'/creations, out in time. Part of the technological charge is to create models that don't do that - The Euro on the other hands - though in a relative sense ... not as egregiously - carries on oppositely as a longer termed tendency. If you click back and forth between D6 and 7 from not 00z, but 12z yesterday's run, just take a look from orbit at the general appeal of that over-arcing flow, between the west coast and Chicago's appr latitude; it somehow, for no apparent geophysical reason, slumps the entire geopotential medium some 6 to 10 DM ...wholescale. That suspicious, and likely erroneous collapsing 24 hour "correction" ...than gets conserved running out through the end of the run with all kinds of troughing mechanics in the western OV. So what we have here - it appears to me - are two models going crazy with there own bias types beyond D 5-ish ( maybe 4 ). Probably ..its endemic to a zonal flow and more at 'low' amplitude PNA that causes that. In a low wave counted 'laminar' flow, that sort of exposes the vanilla tendencies of the models, is my hunch. Because the 00z GFS's solutions stretch credibility...where the Euro ends up with an inferno at 850 over top of a Miller B ? mm...

The other aspect about that mid-week, post cold frontal upglide, because there is unbalance hydrostatic forcing that we can't on god's green Earth be so impudent as to call "ANA" ... event , is that suppose a rendition such as the GFS: I'd go ahead and assume that the spatial coverage where that is actually reaching the ground is ~ the eastern 1/2. Otherwise, that's virga with an amazing sunset spectacle.

Oh... I see why, the 00z Euro makes the impertinent gesture of a miller-B under an 850 mb column that supports mid-May temperatures - That outten'ed-a poke the hornet's nest. Ho man, is that ever U-guh-ly!

Heh, ... just between me and you and everyone I'm about to piss off with this statement, the argument against an ANA probably has a psycho-babble motivation, underpinning. In this rendition of group think .. .people don't want to admit that it is ANA, because "ANA" tends/reputation toward poor verify/no verification - and we can't have that. So the vehemency in semantic pop-cycle head-ache takes it's natural form. Ha ha ha. Can't get reality to change? Attack what we call it instead - hey... I'm good wid dhat - Seriously, I don't care what anyone wants to dink around with in naming waste of time either... I see what you are seeing... a front with sharp 850 to SFC regression of temp exceeding our longitude, with a very strong mid level wind max passing well west ...on top/over top of the elevated frontal slope - QBF between it, and the front's leading edge, is quite theoretically acceptable.

Probably in the overwhelming minority with this ...buut, I find right now through late Monday fascinating, actually. Many of these backyard station obs were -5 to +10 F for low temperatures this morning, across the pan-wide region of interior SNE, and these same locations could be 50 to 60F late afternoon on Monday, ...cloud/showery saturation depending... Still, even in the muted version, we go from this to that with essentially, ZERO active weather, other than the sensible temperature change. It's one of those deals where the whole column/air mass up and bodily moves away, en masse, such that in fewer to no points within are there unbalanced soundings. I.e, no advection of warmth. That's an under-the-radar notability about this synopsis early this week, to go that far in a 24 to 30 hour change with so little advection.

Well... call it what one wants, the cold front out paces the trough, and behind the cold front, there are mid level velocities over a large swath exceeding 100 kts back over PA/NY and S. Ontario - that is going to excite a restoring flow that pulls 700 mb air up the elevated frontal slope, where ever the front is east of that region - that is causing the models to break out QPF on the western/lee-side of the frontal passage. But I haven't seen any overnight runs yet ... just sayn'

These later model runs actually go back to what Will and I were saying last week that it might turn colder this week earlier then we think -trending that way

Lol. ‘Bout sums it up.

Everything beyond 96 hours is in a massive state of flux in the models. continuity breakdown amid multiple Euro sectors in the 12Z underscores that. By the way folks it shifted towards the GFS in a huge way

Inconsolable neurotics. You’re all sitting at some 500% of seasonal totals to date .., wow

Who is 'we' ? I said the average poster... Mean, some do, some don't - I know what I'm seeing from y'all.

Mm... tacitly observing the posting content the last three days since I lost interest in this week... I can only say that I think it's been over assessed by interpretation. So, it may be persistent, but there's a collective over clocking of what it may mean. > 50 % of the QPF mass in most ANA deals ends up being virga, particularly on the western/northern peripheries of smear. The models overdo these things, and surface realization in the cold air side is often evaporating - the previous model runs looked like moderate rain --> light mix ending as flurries based upon experience. It doesn't seem like the average poster is really aware of that sort of nuance. That said, this GGEM run decides to go prodigious enough to overcome that ... heh, we'll see.

Fwiw - the 12z EPS mean is substantially flatter with the latter week system.. Actually even suggests a triple point/miller B slips under us. Considering the typical discrepancy between the operational and EPS means is pretty narrow, that suggests there is some arguing going on among the members as to what the flow orientation will really be after the mid week time period - which duh ...that's 6 + days away in an operational model that drills for oil pretty routinely.

Not sure how tongue in cheek this is, but we're not really gonna get that type of warmth out of "cutter" lows. They're always at best 60/60 misty gales, with a ribbon echo squall before the plunge type deals. If the low is far enough west to get that kind of warmth suggested above, where it's like ludicrous ... it's too far west to really be a cutter, and more like a just a huge warm pattern anomaly. Just sayn' That did happen in Dec 1999 I think it was... there was week in early December where it got to 74 two days back to back... but that was back in those SE ridge-on-roid years.

Could be 14 F out there over that snow pack in the favored chill locales in the interior ( or deeper ) Sunday morning at dawn, then 54 Monday late afternoon with torrents in the gutters. Amazing... Not the kind of interesting Meteorology the yokes care to hear about, but it's impressive nonetheless.

Here it is again ... a salient surmise for a mid month event - nice work

I don't know how the modelers/NCEP managed to serve this GFS this way, but they somehow improved storm track while maintaining a horrifically egregious progressivity bias overall. I think if they fix the fact that the base-line scaffold of this model tries to make the flow laminar out in time at least excuse imaginable, first, they might have a f'n chance and clue at really fixing their storm track guidance. Look at the 06z GFS op at 210 hours... whether that happens, not with standing, but how often does one see a 1032 mb arctic high with 500 DAM thickness NW of Maine, and a deep low scooting E of the VA Capes, and rain...not snow...tickling NYC at a N FRINGE ... That is a manifestation of non-intersecting jet structures, that happens when the flow gets too god damned stretched. It's erroneously rotating all vectors too much into W-E, or E-W orientation to liberally - at all levels. All winter long, we're going to be dealing with that garbage. Yet the Euro? They over-do it in the other direction. I almost wonder, if they removed their so dubbed "4-D variable correction scheme" and run their model, if it would be doing the same thing as the GFS. I mean, it scratches the head why using the same exact physical equations could be so demonstratively different - but I guess that holds true for all guidance types. GGEM...UKMET ...GONAPS. They must all be "over-thinking" nature and trying to imagine a better solution out in time. It's like watching my family prep dishes around the Holiday's, and instead of making them yummy based on the nature of yore ...they fumble around and f- it up, and make just sorta good.

Actually ... wait - you may yet "get" to be f-over by this one, too, if you believe the Binghamton and Albany rad loops...Pretty clearly looks like this is heading S of your latitudes. Let's see if we can get that done!

ANA depictions on the mid range/ext. charts have another sort of .. ephemeral value about them. They are like 'in-run' uncertainty smearing? If you can image a metaphor where you are looking at the ensemble products that put the uncertainty colorizing on which side of the envelope, suggesting the direction of possible correction and so forth. In the 'in-run' metaphor, it's like the model is admitting it's not sure if there's something that's going to happen there. It's good as a start, because there's a shameless "air" of truth to that in general; if there is enough physical machinery left over in a given atmospheric evolution that is west of a front, then in principle that region is a step closer to mechanizing more organized storminess/cyclogen and so forth. SO, future guidance could be worth it.

Yeah...I was just considering whether I am interested enough to fight slow load times on various web-interfacing to check surface obs up there along the Mohawk Trail for verification. ...wondering if this is a virga bomb... It's a 'little critter' ... It's like a little poodle with lip curling attitude that scares the shit out of the Shepherds that don't get it, and yipe away tail curled under genitals ( what the hell did I do - arp!) I figure if someone clocks a 3.25" poof event outta this thing, that's at least getting a nip and snarl

oh yeah .. Currier and Ives in the area today -

Mm overly modeled perhaps... but it's a real phenomenon. The realization of it is not nearly as frequent as we see it smeared up the western side of cold fronts in the models - that much is true.