Typhoon Tip

what is the scoring for this model ? does anyone know... or is this just like the new kid to the neighborhood has to get beat up for awhile before the other kids accept 'im/'er

actually, forget it Brian... I got my wave spaces flipped... This piece is sort of straddling the Cali coast and is awaiting the more important relay out of the central Pac kick it east -

yeah...again, it may not even be detecting that and/or mechanical parcels about that because the NAM's grid doesn't really even extend as far west in to the Pacific as this event's governing "fractals" are presently is moving...

I don't know if this makes any sense for this 'little critter' but... the NAM's domain terminates west of the west coast out around 130 W (I think) which this system's gunk (right now) is still just sort of nosing through that longitude this morning... Times to move closer to and pass over roughly Frisco ... 24 hours from now and then moves swiftly across the country in the fast compressed flow... I pretty sure the NAM gets a relay from the globals at the edges but don't quote me. In any case, the NAM is not the best tool for this probably until Wednesday night sometime

Funny...that ICON model's 00z evolution almost looks better...

Darn! too bad that NAVGEM model is what it is ...cuz that 00z run evolution was a be-a-u-tiful Miller B Nor'easter for SNE/CNE...Maine ... NYC... prooobably not so much for snow along the I-95 corridor from Boston S... but inland SNE ... 15 to lollypopped 20" ... one could argue in that set up that the warm penetration is too liberal, too, which would bring/scrunch the ptype profile a tad SE even. As far as all models, I don't believe with that high pressure situated N of Maine there is going to realize the extent of warm intrusion that we are seeing in the GFS/FV3' ... Most important of all... said high pressure is already in that position, prior to the total system arrival, and with such a well established BL resistance already in place, there is an instant pressure responsive ageostrophic flow potential .. (say that five times fast) ... that's the ballgame! There's no way in hell liquid alone falls even as far N as HFD. Nope... if "liquid" is falling from the sky, it's going to be stalagmite ... The Euro seems to be coming around to that resistance by forcing an elongated slow (which is elongated for other reasons...) more SE of previous..? Question mark, because the 00z is between frames at closest pass with what identifiable surface reflection there is... at it seems to be inched SE over previous. [edit: okay...folks seem to think it was inched NW over previous.. sure. But it doesn't change any rational/logic with the corrective BL] ... It too has a strong enough +PP situated N, with fresh dense cP air ... established and in place. Too much so for me to believe even it is entirely correct with detailed handling (transition zones ... lower thickness tapestry...etc) Still more than 4.5 days out... I think we see some inch-wise corrections if not a more obvious one that finally sees the weight of the high/llv resistance,... from all guidance for that matter. Part of that resistance isn't just the surface high... it's the circumstantial deep layer flow with that SPV gyre over central/eastern Canada ... that's not really conducive to a west correction with out phasing more... We go through this every system that has a +PP circumstance N of the region. Paranoia and lack of faith erodes the cold vastly more efficiently than verification proves is/was the case. This geographic layout east of the eastern U.S. cordillera simply will not allow a warm intrusion with lower tropospheric vector pointing S from the N - it's nearly physically impossible to overcome topographical counter-curl vector+cold damming already in place, enough to displace positive-static stability physics from the top down. Not by forcing riding over top ... which is also - btw - S of LI at closest pass. This entire virtual situation as set up in both blend and individual modeling coverage, WILL correct S, sleet, ice in that order, OR, just be a short duration ice storm. Also...I say short duration ... because climo of "severe" and/or historic scenarios usually are protracted events with lighter fall rates .. The slow misting with light ZR maximizes accretion proficiency ... 29 is a great temp for that ratio... Colder than you're wasting to bouncing bee-bees... That said... as 2008 showed, we can still pummel a region with 1 to an 1.5" accretion ...even if that is only half what falls.. I'm not saying an impact won't occur at 31.9 with heavy rain... but 2008 was unique for those parameters. This situation ... to me, looks like 1/2 ZR with 1/2 sleet in the greatest proficiency axis, because the termination along the cP air to the WAA is going to be compressed and a taller column of cold.

the 26-27th has been showing up frequently among the various GEFs members ...there's probably something in there...whether it turns out to be a trough/flexer/cold wave reinforcing shot or a storm (or both) is gee, less certain that anything before that but ...once in the favorable pattern, all intervals of interest are non-negligible.

Winter enthusiasts should want that anyway... In a hemispheric sloped pattern, a warm-up preludes a bomb ... numb-nuts

I mean it's not just that model had poor resolution and/or just ... flat f'n incorrect resolution in the boundary layer, it's got bizarro physics down here... I've seen it do this in the past, where that behavior (like you described) exhibits an awareness of BL resistance/CAD/cold thickness packing and squeeze south...yet it simultaneously warms the interior with phantom CF penetration NW while the wind is blowing FROM the NE - hello Yeah... put my money not so much on poor resolution .. but just f-ed up resolution. Not kidding I've flat out noticed these like concurrent physically impossible results at other times. It did it during heat waves going the other direction last year too - I seriously hope this new paralegal run is better than this... oy

Who said that ...

actually it was end November 1921 ... not '26 ... Yeah it's out there... here and there. It doesn't appear to be heavily annulled but accretion depths exceeding 3" was reported over "eastern and central massachusetts" so..

they did 1926 ...

I'm kinda hopin' we have a pan-wide historic ice-induced grid failure during the Patriot's game... That'd maximize the pain and irony -

Here comes 2015 on the GEFs..

among other notable gems, ...yup

Yeah... Will... Though I'm getting yo-yo'ed back and forth on the 'ice' per se... I'm inclined in this circumstance to believe the lower tropospheric thickness/correction vector has to be pointed cold. I don't ever, 100% of the time, ever underestimate cold when +PP is north of SNE. That just fluid-dynamically is physically impossible, period. The only way it ends warmer, is if the models were wrong with the +PP in the first place. Anyway, my point is... I almost wonder if this is like that thing we had late last March...where it was cold and a middling coastal pounded sleet up to 1.5" deep or so... Not so much as an analog, but to show we can generate a pan-wide pellet carpet bomber storm when there is very proficient surface wedging under an IB/WAA..

Fwiw - "WPC - Meanwhile, downstream surges of frigid Canadian air into the central U.S. become more significant Thursday through the weekend as the northern stream amplifies around a wobbling Hudson Bay upper vortex. Leading lows Thu-Fri spread some modest snows over the northeast quarter of the nation. Upstream, a more robust system ejecting from the West organizes over the southern Plains with increased Gulf of Mexico moisture and lift through Arkansas Saturday as an arctic front to the north pushes through the Northeast. As precipitation overruns the cold airmass to the north, heavy snow will spread out of the Central Plains through the Midwest/Ohio Valley and then Mid-Atlantic/Northeast as potentially heavy warm-sector rains/convection move through the South. The transition zone between the snow and rain will likely include sleet and freezing rain with this overrunning signal. There is an increasing signal in guidance/improved model and ensemble clustering for a significant and widespread heavy snow/ice event to the north of a subsequent main low track through the East then up off the coast. Please consult WPC Day 4-7 QPF and Winter Weather Outlook for a probabilistic assessment of the coast to coast winter weather threat." Thing is ... yesterday I dropped the ice idea .. kinda wondering if that was mistake. After hitting it hard for a couple of days ... I started thinking that this system's fields would be narrowed ...perhaps limiting that contention but that may have been a mistake to back down yesterday. hm

Not a shocker ... the compression won't be denied! ... it's hard to get a trough axis turned around in this sort of base-line high velocity field ... wrote about this for days - we'll see

you can't have it both ways though - ...well, you can... but, if Brian/gang decide to dispense with the 'sub-forum' model and go back to the general free-for-all format, what do you think you are going to get with that? Even worse...

Not ready to dismiss that ... whether 8, per se, or just 4-6" of over-production notwithstanding, that's a flat wave air on the side of "little critter that bites" if there's ever a trap-game weather event at all. It's a S/W ejecta/forced egress out of that L/W situated just west of San Francisco ... i.,e. a soup con of uncertainty as to total potency. Then enters a medium that has some Rockies lee-side return flow of theta-e already on-going. Notice the misty QPF around Galvaston/Bend region of Texas at 60 hours? ...could make for some surprising rich banded material on rad..., which then rides up into a region with lingering lateral d(thickness)/gradient ...This latter factor imposes a subtle steepening of the frontal slopes aloft, which causes more upright moving parcel lift tapping into that streak momentum... Frontogenic ... I bet if you found a product that illustrates that we'd see some indication of that... or should if don't. That's a little critter that's pretty classically a candidate to ignore but has some potential. I think bust vector is pointed upper advisory scale and despite all consternation ...that little guy may be the most consistently modeled thing we've elided up to this point.

fwiw ... the GEPs mean indicates the operational version is the outlier

That frankenmodel tries to make this into an open wave cohesive low -

I can tell you I'm 100% certain that if that surface pressure pattern evolution over Quebec evolves like that... the GFS will be too far N with that surface low...

I'm liking the progress/faster 'tendencies' overall... it's a better fit for compression.

Heh ...funny.. Yeah ...I haven't even looked yet but in the previous I surmised that the model was unlikely going to succeed in handling/timing critical features to phase more ... which is how/why the only way pretty much it can take a system west of NE - it would have to shift the entire mass-field vortex of the SPV over eastern Canada west. I've noticed this about that model over the years ... sometimes did does not do that and it scores reasonably well along with the other runs, but at other times it tries too hard phase.